MLB: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

A Visit from the Empire: Yankees Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

Tuesday, May 24th – Thursday, May 26th

Written by Jenn Smith and Nick Dika

After being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in embarrassing fashion at the Rogers Centre, the Toronto Blue Jays travelled to Minnesota. There, several of their clubhouse leaders approached coaches with a line up shake up highlighted by placing Jose Bautista in the lead-off spot. The result was a 3-1 series against the beleaguered Twins. Now, the 22-24 Toronto Blue Jays face the daunting task of playing their next twelve games against division rivals, providing the Jays with a golden opportunity to gain some ground in the A.L. East. The Jays won two of three games in Toronto against the Yankees in early April and will look to at least equal that accomplishment this time around.

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday, May 24th – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET

R.A. Dickey vs. Nathan Eovoldi

R.A. Dickey brings a 2-5 record and a 4.50 ERA into his tenth start of the 2016 season. Dickey is looking to rebound from a poor start last time out in which he surrendered five runs (four earned) in six innings of work against the Rays. While Dickey has historically struggled in April and May, he had made three consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer prior to last Wednesday’s outing. While the knuckleball is maddeningly difficult to predict or dissect, Dickey may be turning a corner and hitting his stride earlier than in past seasons – where R.A.’s second half ERA’s have been significantly better than the first, each year he has pitched in Toronto. Dickey made four starts against the Yankees in 2015 and only once allowed more than one run (September 13).

Known as one of the rare major league pitchers that generates major fastball velocity without striking many batters out, Nate Eovaldi (4-2, 4.44 ERA) takes the mound against Toronto in the series opener. Much like his mound opponent on Tuesday, Nate Eovaldi also struggles with the long ball. Coming into play on Monday, he was 29th in all of baseball in HR’s allowed per nine innings (Dickey is 28th). Fortunately for Toronto, this plays into the Blue Jays offensive strength, as the team is sixth in the major leagues with 58 home runs despite their offensive struggles to date. Eovaldi surrendered four runs in 6.2 innings of work in his first start against the Jays this season.

Wednesday, May 25th – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET

Marco Estrada vs. Ivan Nova

When David Price left the team this offseason, Marcus Stroman was anointed as the next staff ace. Apparently nobody told Marco Estrada. The FIP busting Estrada (1-2) has picked up exactly where he left off in 2015, posting a sparkling 2.61 ERA through 51 innings of work. Estrada has only allowed more than thre earned runs twice so far and looks to build on another solid start against Minnesota (eight innings of two run ball). As Estrada continues to generate weak contact with his fastball/changeup combo, he appears to be adding more swing and miss to his game this season – striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings, up from 6.5 in 2015 and 7.6 in 2014. If Estrada can keep the strikeout gains he has made this season while continuing to keep hitters from generating solid contact with his elite spin rate, the Jays will have the most affordable ace in baseball. Keep an eye on Marco’s strikeout numbers in the near future. While it might not be prudent to bank on an ERA below three, he should prove to be a valuable and reliable member of the rotation moving forward. Estrada had mixed results against New York last season, pitching five times and allowing 13 runs in 27 innings.

Ivan Nova will make his third start of the season on Wednesday night in New York. Nova is now two full years removed from an April 2014 Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss most of the 2015 season. Since his return, he has been shuffled between the bullpen and the back of the Yankees rotation, and rejoined the starting crew after Luis Severino was injured earlier this month. He is a two pitch-pitcher and throws primarily a fastball (with sink) and a curveball, which leads some to believe it will be challenging for him to succeed as a starting pitcher. While Nova’s two-pitch mix and inability to miss bats (6.03 K/9 in 90 innings last season) would lead most to think the Blue Jays formidable offence should pummel the righty, whatever weird spell Toronto hitters have been under means you shouldn’t be surprised if Nova spins a gem.

Thursday, May 26th – First Pitch 4:05 PM ET

Aaron Sanchez vs. C.C. Sabathia

Speaking of two-pitch starting pitchers, former two-pitch relief ace Aaron Sanchez (4-1), takes the mound for Toronto in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. Now to call Sanchez a two-pitch starting pitcher isn’t fair – since his move to the rotation, Sanchez has begun using his changeup more often (11.8 percent of the time compared to only 1.3 percent of the time on 2015) and has enjoyed very positive results. He has pitched to a 3.25 ERA and 3.20 FIP in nine starts this season. While it is still early, the tall righthander has been able to cut his walk rate, and limit the damage that left handed hitters (.488 SLG in 2015) are able to do against him. Look for the Yankees to exploit this historical issue and start a lineup with eight lefties (including switch hitters) against Sanchez. While the lefty heavy lineup should provide a challenge, Sanchez was able to limit the Yankees to only two runs in six innings during his first start against them this season.

Update: 

It looks like it will instead be Happ starting against the Yankees, which is clearly a much better matchup. Due to the off-day Monday, Happ will be pitching on regular rest, and his coming off one of his better outings of the season. He took the loss, but gave up no runs and just one hit in the first seven innings of the game. He brings to this start an ERA of 3.43 in nine starts, and while his strikeouts are way down at 5.8 per nine innings, he is getting way more groundballs than usual, and is holding lefties to a line of .237/.333/.237. As a result, look for Aaron Hicks, Rob Refsnyder, and Austin Romine to get starts in this game.

After a very difficult 2015 that saw him post an ERA of 4.73, C.C. Sabathia has pitched well thus far in 2016. While a sore groin has limited the big lefty to six starts, Sabathia is 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA (3.10 FIP). He doesn’t throw nearly as hard as he used to, but he has been mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off balance. Sabathia only faced the Blue Jays twice in 2015, surrendering four runs in each outing. Sabathia is coming off a start in which he limited (an admittedly weak) Oakland offence to one run in six innings for his 100th career win.

Additions and Subtractions

There are no additions or subtractions to report on behalf of the Jays, though both Aaron Loup and Devon Travis have been rehabbing in Buffalo and could be set to return in the near future, though likely not in time to take on the Yankees.

After suffering a hamstring injury that landed him on the 15-day disabled list on May 4th, the Yankees may activate designated hitter Alex Rodriguez as early as Tuesday. Rodriguez was hitting just .194/.275/.444 with five home runs, twelve RBI and 20 strikeouts prior to his injury. Phil Coke, who was a Blue Jay for all of 23 days in 2015, was outrighted to Triple-A on May 20th after being designated for assignment and passing through waivers.

Keep an Eye On

The Jays’ Offense

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Jays’ offense, while showing signs of potential, has yet to figure things out at the plate. The Jays scored eighteen runs in their four games against the Twins which is better than their season average of 4.04 runs per game, but nine of those runs came in one game. The hitting has been quite the concern given that the Jays are 0-20 when they surrender four or more runs. Collectively, the Jays are batting .236/.315/.404 this season and have yet to demonstrate the sheer dominance with which they hit last season. More concerning, perhaps, is that the Jays rank 28th in the league with a .218 batting average with RISP – a stat which will hopefully improve with the retooled lineup.

So Many Ejections

One thing the Jays do lead the league in this season is ejections, including four (three within a week’s span) for manager John Gibbons. Two ejections in particular stand out: Gibbons being tossed for arguing the intent of close pitches during Sunday’s game against the Twins after Phil Hughes threw twice (and missed) at Josh Donaldson, and Donaldson himself getting the boot the day before for a verbal altercation with the Twins’ dugout that home plate umpire Toby Basner thought was directed towards him. Have the Jays become the new villains of baseball? Have they garnered themselves a reputation with umpires that has led to the quick hook? Or are others teams simply pushing their buttons hoping for (and getting) a reaction? These are not questions that can necessarily be answered, but it is worth keeping an eye on, especially at Yankee Stadium.

Yankees’ Hot Streak

For a team that could really benefit from racking up a few wins, the Jays unfortunately are rolling into New York at the most inopportune time. The Bronx Bombers are on a five game win streak and have been victorious in 11 of their last 16 games.

That Yankees Bullpen

A bit reason for that hot streak is that the Yankees bullpen is absolutely dominant if they get to the seventh (or even the sixth) inning with a lead. The three-headed monster of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman is finally together, and they are making it a nightmare for opponents. Betances has a K/9 of 17.7, Miller sports a rate 15.91, and Chapman is checking in at a cool 11.6 in seven innings. Look for a lot of strikeouts late in games.

Probable Lineup

Blue Jays

Yankees

1 Jose Bautista – RF 1 Jacoby Ellsbury – CF
2 Josh Donaldson – 3B 2 Brett Gardner – LF
3 Edwin Encarnacion – DH 3 Carlos Beltran – RF
4 Michael Saunders – LF 4 Alex Rodriguez – DH
5 Troy Tulowitzki – SS 5 Brian McCann – C
6 Justin Smoak – 1B 6 Mark Teixeira – 1B
7 Russell Martin – C 7 Starlin Castro – 2B
8 Kevin Pillar – CF 8 Chase Headley – 3B
9 Darwin Barney – 2B 9 Didid Gregorius – SS

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

The Jays currently sit in last place in the American League East, six games out of first and four games out of a wild card spot. There is still more than enough time left in the season to get out of their funk and make a run for it, but they have to start playing better soon. It is imperative that both the offense and bullpen start playing like its 2015 again – and what better time to do that than against division rivals which will guarantee gaining ground in the standings?

Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

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