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	<title>Toronto &#187; Starting Pitching</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Upcoming Blue Jays Series Vs the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-upcoming-blue-jays-series-vs-the-orioles/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-upcoming-blue-jays-series-vs-the-orioles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 May 2017 14:05:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[injuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11023</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador</em></p>
<h4>An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it came against the Atlanta Braves, a team who is currently in a rebuilding phase. The Orioles can sympathize with this frustration, given that they have now lost six of their last seven, including a sweep last weekend at the hands of the runt of the AL litter, the Kansas City Royals.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Baltimore’s struggles over the past week cannot be attributed to the whole club. The hitters have continued to perform in typical Oriole fashion, slashing .284/.376/.504 during the stretch. The reason for the team’s struggles falls squarely in the hands of the pitching – specifically the rotation, who have pitched to a 7.01 ERA over their cold stretch. The Orioles starters this weekend will be Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Wade Miley, with Gausman and Miley having been two of the main perpetrators of the rotation’s lousy performance.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This lack of success for the Orioles’ pitching staff has led to the getting knocked out of games early. Over their 1-6 stretch, Orioles starters have averaged only five innings per start. This has required the Orioles bullpen to eat a lot innings over the last week, a bullpen that is already dealing with the loss of Zach Britton to a forearm strain.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Toronto has an opportunity to add on to Baltimore’s pitching woes this weekend. While normally the thought of Baltimore going to their bullpen is a scary one, the absence of Zach Britton combined with their recent increased workload are good omens for a Toronto team who has hit nearly as well as the Orioles (.271/.341/.489) over the last week. If the Blue Jays can continue the trend and get to Baltimore’s starters early, there could be some mashing happening in Baltimore.</span></p>
<h4>Players That Will Coming Back from Injury&#8230;Maybe<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays miraculously thumped Atlanta Thursday night with just three Opening Day starters in the lineup. Recent callup Darrell Ceciliani batted cleanup and April-signee Chris Coghlan hit fifth. The team’s second backup catcher of the year hit eighth. And because nothing good can ever last, Ceciliani partially dislocated his shoulder while socking a dinger. So although the team will be shorthanded for Friday’s opening tilt with him out and Kevin Pillar suspended, some help appears to be on the way.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Earlier this week John Gibbons got everyone fired up when he speculated that Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki could return around the team’s trip to Atlanta </span><a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-pushing-back-troy-tulowitzkis-return-lineup/"><span style="font-weight: 400">but had to walk back those comments after he “jumped the gun” on their respective recoveries</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. Given the state of the lineup, it’s hard to blame him.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While Donaldson won’t be back this weekend, it looks like Tulowitzki could make an appearance at Camden Yards. Rainy conditions pushed back the start of his rehab stint on Saturday, and with Dunedin off Sunday it meant that Tulowitzki didn’t return to action until Monday. He went 1-for-3 in that game and played shortstop before going 0-for-2 with a walk as the DH on Tuesday. He got a day off on Wednesday and went 1-for-3 last night while playing the field, furthering speculation that he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He could be in line for one or two more rehab games but could just as easily return to the big club for the series opener. Either way, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a regular face back at shortstop in Baltimore.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Elsewhere, Russell Martin went on the 10-day DL on May 8th with a left shoulder problem. While he didn’t come off the DL when first eligible on Thursday, he was able to catch side sessions from Aaron Sanchez and Francisco Liriano on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. With him unlikely to need a rehab assignment, Martin’s return could come sooner rather than later.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Beyond the obvious benefits of having really good baseball players available, this should ease some of the burden on Toronto’s thin bench. They had been rolling with nine relievers and just two bench bats until Pillar’s suspension spurred an 8-3 split, so a return to health would give the team much more flexibility in terms of late game substitutions. Exactly who sees the door is yet to be determined, but beyond Mike Ohlman and Dwight Smith the team’s affinity for collecting middle-infield types points to a pitcher drawing the short straw.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Regardless, the Blue Jays are mercifully inching their way back to full health.</span></p>
<h4>Lefty Power Will Thrive in Baltimore<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p>When people usually think of left handers hitting home runs in the American league, they think of Yankee Stadium and the infamous short porch. However, Camden Yards is surprisingly lefty power heavy. Per FanGraphs’ park factors, left handed hitters at both Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards have a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&amp;season=2015&amp;teamid=0&amp;sort=8,d">15% higher chance of hitting a homerun than they would at a neutral stadium</a>. When you look at the an overlay of the park, it really makes sense.<strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11024 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium-300x295.jpg" alt="Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>Image via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php">ESPN Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>At Camden Yards the right field corner is 318 feet from home plate, compared to 314 to the short porch at Yankee Stadium.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays don’t have any truly powerful left handed hitters, they do of course have two powerful switch hitters in Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Fortunately, both Smoak and Morales have shown quite a bit more power from the left side. In his career, Smoak has hit home runs in 4 percent of his plate appearance from the left side compared to 3.3 percent from the right side. Morales’ difference is even more pronounced with home runs in 4.4 percent of his plate appearances from the left and 3.1 percent as a right hander.</p>
<p>On top of all that, the Blue Jays will be facing three right handed starters this weekend in Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez. For a Toronto team that, as mentioned above, will still be missing its big guns on Friday, they’ll need to take advantage of any edge that they can get.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 15: Aardsma on Arms</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/09/artificial-turf-wars-ep-15-aardsma-on-arms/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/09/artificial-turf-wars-ep-15-aardsma-on-arms/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jun 2016 10:24:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Aardsma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3531</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Free agent relief pitcher David Aardsma stops by the podcast to discuss the decision-making process that comes with opting out of a contract, what&#8217;s next in his job search, analytics and how they can make a pitcher better, the draft and college pitcher usage, and why steroid testing procedures are very important. Josh and Greg [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Free agent relief pitcher <a href="https://twitter.com/TheDA53" target="_blank">David Aardsma</a> stops by the podcast to discuss the decision-making process that comes with opting out of a contract, what&#8217;s next in his job search, analytics and how they can make a pitcher better, the draft and college pitcher usage, and why steroid testing procedures are very important. Josh and Greg also discuss the excellent rotation, the effect Jason Grilli could have on the rest of the bullpen, Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s return and what it means for the infield, and give some quick thoughts on the MLB First Year Player Draft. They also answer listener questions, and discuss Yordano Ventura&#8217;s anger issues.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>YOU CAN WIN A BLUE JAYS SHIRSEY</strong></span></p>
<p>We really want to hear how we can improve the podcast, so we&#8217;ve put together a little survey. If you fill this out (it should only take 2-3 minutes), you will become eligible* for a draw to win a Blue Jays shirsey of your choice. So please, tell us what you think!</p>
<p><a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JyypeI-fHh5XxMgGeMZJEztQaEiMS9VHCwbPo8Squdg/viewform" target="_blank">Click here to take the survey.</a></p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/967/show_8967763_2016_06_09_04_23_51.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/967/show_8967763_2016_06_09_04_23_51.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;<br />
<em>*contest only open to residents of Canada and the USA.</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 12: This Week had a Rough Odor</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-12-this-week-had-a-rough-odor/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-12-this-week-had-a-rough-odor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 May 2016 10:15:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brawl]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clubhouse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Paredes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing and a Drive]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2856</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Eno Sarris of Fangraphs stops by to discuss his recent interviews with Blue Jays players and to talk about the clubhouse feel. The Boys then break down the handling of &#8220;The Brawl,&#8221; discuss the awful play from the week, and talk about the pending return of Devon Travis, the addition of Jimmy Paredes, and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/enosarris" target="_blank">Eno Sarris</a> of Fangraphs stops by to discuss his recent interviews with Blue Jays players and to talk about the clubhouse feel. The Boys then break down the handling of &#8220;The Brawl,&#8221; discuss the awful play from the week, and talk about the pending return of Devon Travis, the addition of Jimmy Paredes, and the rehabs of Aaron Loup and Bo Schultz. They also answer listener questions and bring on special guest <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJayHunter" target="_blank">Ian Hunter</a> to play Canada&#8217;s favourite game, &#8220;Swing and a&#8230;Drive?&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/871/show_8871165_2016_05_19_05_09_31.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/871/show_8871165_2016_05_19_05_09_31.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 11: A Minor (League) Detour</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/artificial-turf-wars-ep-11-a-minor-league-detour/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2016 10:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buffalo Bisons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cliché of the Week]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lansing Lugnuts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2609</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The voices of the minor leagues make their appearance on Artificial Turf Wars, as Jesse Goldberg-Strassler of the Lansing Lugnuts and Ben Wagner of the Buffalo Bisons stop by to discuss Andy Burns, top prospects and life at various levels of the minors. Greg, Josh, and Chris also run through the recent stories surrounding the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The voices of the minor leagues make their appearance on Artificial Turf Wars, as <a href="https://twitter.com/jgoldstrass" target="_blank">Jesse Goldberg-Strassler</a> of the Lansing Lugnuts and <a href="https://twitter.com/benwag247" target="_blank">Ben Wagner</a> of the Buffalo Bisons stop by to discuss Andy Burns, top prospects and life at various levels of the minors. Greg, Josh, and Chris also run through the recent stories surrounding the team including the excellent starting pitching, some issues with Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s glove, hitting woes, Ryan Tepera&#8217;s brief return to the club, and the bizarre way managers handle bullpens in the ninth inning. Finally the guys answer a few listener questions, look at a bizarre &#8220;shift&#8221; from Buck Martinez, and tackle the cliché of major leaguers being former shortstops.</p>
<p>Information on Blue Jays Weekend in Buffalo (mentioned by Ben Wagner) <a href="http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160428&amp;content_id=175085542&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;vkey=news_t422&amp;sid=t422" target="_blank">can be found here</a></p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/839/show_8839087_2016_05_12_04_03_55.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/839/show_8839087_2016_05_12_04_03_55.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Is This Even Legal?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/11/blue-jays-rotation-review-is-this-even-legal/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/11/blue-jays-rotation-review-is-this-even-legal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2016 16:18:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. Last time [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">read all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>Last time through the rotation the Blue Jays starting pitchers feasted on opposition hitting (or lack thereof), posting a 1.83 ERA over 34.1 innings. That&#8217;s certainly a tough performance to top. Were they able to build on their fantastic showing the prior week or were there some long faces leaving games? Let&#8217;s take a look.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 66 strikes, 40 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch mix: 1 Fourseam Fastballs, 50 Sinkers, 5 Changeups, 18 Sliders, 6 Curveballs, 26 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off arguably his most dominant performance of the season against the Rays, Marcus Stroman took on a tougher Dodgers lineup in an attempt to help start a small winning streak. For much of the early parts of the season, Stroman was getting a lot of groundball outs, but wasn&#8217;t really getting the strikeouts to help him reach ace level. That changed against Tampa Bay, so the Blue Jays ace hoped to continue the trend. He certainly delivered, going seven strong innings, allowing just two runs and striking out eight &#8211; one off his season high. He also generated 13 swings and misses, which is his second highest total of the year (14 against Tampa). Considering the difference in the quality of opponents (the Dodgers actually take the occasional pitch), this could have been considered an even better outing than last time.</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t without its faults, however. Once again, Stroman gave up runs late, giving up both runs in the seventh inning on a two out sequence that went double, RBI double, RBI single. In five of his seven starts this season, Stroman has given up late runs that either blew a lead, or caused it to shrink considerably. Obviously a huge part of that is the fault of the struggling bullpen (either blowing leads or being simply untrustworthy) but the Blue Jays and John Gibbons have to recognize when Stroman is starting to falter earlier.</p>
<p>Overall though, this was still an excellent outing for the Duke University graduate. He carved through a tough lineup and had them off balance for essentially the entire game. As mentioned, he also got a lot of strikeouts for the second straight game. A big reason for this is the further increased use of his cutter. Last week&#8217;s Rotation Review broke down how Stroman was using this pitch as a strong complement to his sinker. By having a pitch that breaks on the same plane as his fastball, just in the opposite direction, it makes both pitches much tougher to hit. There is, however, another factor:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-81.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2553" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-81.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (8)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Last week, Stroman mixed cutters and curveballs. This week, he almost completely junked the curveball and went to the slider as his secondary pitch. Early in the season, he would go back and forth with the changeup, which he barely threw this time out. This is a theme that is going to show up a few times in this piece, but Stroman is altering his pitch mix every start. This makes him almost impossible to scout. If you have to worry about four or five different pitches in any count, it&#8217;s pretty tough to hit.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 60 Strikes, 27 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 79 Knuckleballs, 8 Twoseam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>In his last start, Dickey shut down the Texas Rangers and managed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first time this season. This was of some importance, as Dickey&#8217;s main value to this team is as a man who can provide a whole bunch of innings worth of league average production. Therefore, if he&#8217;s not going deep into games, he isn&#8217;t all that useful. Thankfully, after a very rough April, Dickey seems to be finding his stride. He put up his longest outing of the year, and aside from one rocky inning, really held the Dodgers at bay. His issues came in the third inning, but he really didn&#8217;t have help. After Dickey allowed a leadoff single, Corey Seager hit a chopper in the hole between shortstop and third base for an infield single. With two on and none out, Dickey got the groundball he needed, but Darwin Barney failed to field the ball, and instead of a double play (or at least a forceout), the bases were loaded with nobody out. Josh Thole followed with a passed ball to let in one run, then Adrian Gonzalez singled in two more. Dickey escaped without any further damage, but considering he was matched up with Clayton Kershaw, that pretty much meant the ballgame.</p>
<p>Overall, this was a very effective outing. Even though he struggled to get ahead of batters (59 percent first pitch strikes), Dickey threw a ton of strikes overall (69 percent). When he is commanding the knuckleball, he is tough to hit. Joc Pederson took a high floater deep, but really, the Dodgers couldn&#8217;t do any real damage. Another encouraging sign was that Dickey threw his hardest knuckleball of the season, breaking 80 mph for the first time. The thing that always separated Dickey from other knuckleballers was his ability to throw the pitch hard. So far this year, that has been a problem. Thankfully, he tends to get a bit better as the season goes on:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2554" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (9)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Whether it&#8217;s the weather or some other external factor, R.A. Dickey really struggles to throw his best knuckleball early in the season. If he can continue to increase that velocity, starts like this one could be come the norm again, instead of the outlier.</p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 63 strikes, 40 balls<br />
</strong><strong>Pitch Mix: 47 Fourseam Fastballs, 26 Changeups, 12 Curveballs, 18 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>For the second straight week, Marco Estrada allowed just a solo home run while completely dominating the rest of the game. The only run he gave up was in his seventh and final inning as he left with a 2-1 lead. Of course, as has happened far too often this season, great starting pitching was ruined by a disastrous bullpen effort. But this is the Rotation Review, not the Staff Review, so we&#8217;ll focus on Estrada. As has become commonplace, the 32-year-old was masterful. The Dodgers really didn&#8217;t hit anything hard all night until the Pederson home run (on a hanging curveball), and Estrada mixed in eight strikeouts, which gives him three starts where has has put up more strikeouts than innings pitched. Overall his, K/9 has risen from 6.5 last year to 8.6 this year, and his K% has risen from 18.1 percent to 23.7 percent.</p>
<p>Even with the strikeouts, as was pointed out in this space last week, it is unusual for Estrada to dominate without any balls in play being classified as infield fly balls. But for the second straight dominant start Estrada has done just that. While there were no pop ups, he still induced his fair share of soft flyball outs. However, the vast majority of the outs were actually on the ground. Estrada put up a 64.7 percent groundball rate, which was easily his highest of the season. A big part of that is his increase used of his improved cutter, <a title="Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/" target="_blank">which Joshua Howsam outlined here</a>. In this start, Estrada threw 17.5 percent cutters, which is his highest rate since his season opening dominance of the Red Sox.</p>
<p>Estrada was slightly more fastball heavy than previous starts this season. In a way it was somewhat odd given the left handed heavy nature of the Dodgers lineup. But by using the cutter, he was able to get in on the hitters&#8217; hands which forced them to open up the outside corner for his other offerings. As you can see from the chart below (catcher&#8217;s perspective), almost all the cutters were on the inner half to lefties, and most of the fastballs and changeups were away.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_05_08_lanmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As is always the case, getting ahead of hitters is also extremely important, and Estrada managed to throw first pitch strikes to 18 of 27 batters (2/3). After 0-1 counts this season, Estrada is limiting hitters to a .157/.203/.271 line and has allowed just 15 of 74 batters to reach base, so this was a big factor in his success in this game. All-in-all, Estrada has done his best to prove all the doubters wrong as he continues to show that last season&#8217;s saviour act was not an aberration. If there is one thing to be somewhat concerned about, it is his rising walk rate, though if he continues his improved strikeout rate, it could be somewhat of a moot point.</p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 57 strikes, 48 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 20 Fourseam Fastballs, 65 Twoseam Fastballs, 14 Changeups, 6 Curveballs</strong></p>
<p>This was something of an interesting start for the young, fireballing righthander. Against the hapless San Francisco Giants, Sanchez walked five batters and managed to throw just 54.2 percent of his pitches for strikes, while also generating his fewest groundballs of the season (52.6 percent). Of course, 52.6 percent groundballs is still fantastic, and the overall line looks downright dominant. Three hits and one run in seven innings? That&#8217;s elite. So overall, I don&#8217;t think anybody would (or could) complain.</p>
<p>So how did he do it? How does someone struggle to throw strikes and still hold a team down like that? Well, it starts with what we all know of Mr. Sanchez: <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/" target="_blank">He has elite stuff</a>. And in this start, the stuff was even better. As you can see from the numbers above, Aaron Sanchez threw a LOT of fastballs (either four or twoseam). What was interesting is that, while they were getting the same horizontal movement they usually do, they were both dropping considerably more.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2555" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (10)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>That type of increased movement, combined with the raw velocity, will lead to a lot of weak contact. Of course, it should also lead to more groundballs, and as mentioned above, Sanchez had his fewest grounders of the season. Well, the fastballs <em>did</em> lead to more grounders. 58.3 percent of them, in fact. However, Sanchez also threw a lot more changeups in this game, and they just kept on generating weak popups (60 percent of balls in play).</p>
<p>Sanchez&#8217;s evolution as a pitcher has been very interesting to watch this season, as has Russell Martin&#8217;s pitch-calling. Coming into the year, Sanchez was basically a two pitch pitcher. He has a big time fastball, and a power curve, but the changeup was always in question. Then last time out, he threw almost as many changeups as curveballs. In last week&#8217;s Roto Review we alluded to how that adds value, then this time, he threw <em>over two times as many changeups as curveballs. </em>The Giants have a bunch of left-handed hitters, and the development and confident in the changeup gives Sandchez another weapon to get lefties out. It was mentioned above that the Blue Jays are making it nearly impossible to plan for their starters, and here we have another example. Not only is Sanchez getting that extra tier of velocity into hitters heads and possessing a reverse-platoon pitch, he also has teams planning for him to pitch one way and coming at them completely differently. That&#8217;s how you dominate even when you can&#8217;t throw strikes.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.2 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 75 strikes, 36 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 37 Fourseam Fastballs, 40 Twoseam Fastballs, 9 Changeups, and 16 Curveballs, 9 Cutters, .</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ&#8217;s first eight innings in this game (before tiring a bit in the ninth) were one of the brightest pitching performances from a Jays pitcher over the past few years. He was sharp from the get go, getting through the first six innings with fewer than 12 pitches per frame. He was doing this by pounding the zone, throwing 45 strikes to just 18 balls to that point. He continued his strong pitching through the seventh and eighth before some wildness, somewhat aided by Tom Hallion&#8217;s tight strike zone, almost put a damper on the effort. He almost got the complete game, but John Gibbons brought in closer Roberto Osuna to shut down the late threat by the Giants and preserve the shutout.</p>
<p>If any start this season was going to show that Happ has maybe taken a step beyond the lasting impact from his time with Ray Searage, this was it. Happ went deep into the game, which he never did with the Pirates, and kept his velocity and mechanics through the first eight innings. He continually worked around the outside of the zone and really had his curveball working, particularly against Brandon Belt, who struggled to deal with it all game. Despite his fastball heavy approach, he continually mixed in his other pitches at times when hitters weren&#8217;t expecting them and generated weak contact with 13 groundballs and 2 pop ups to go along with his five strikeouts. It may be repetitive, but once again, a Blue Jays pitcher completely changed up his pitch usage. In last week&#8217;s Rotation Review, this was written about Happ:</p>
<p><em>Batters go in with a scouting report that tells them they&#8217;re going to see a bunch of curves and fourseamers, so Happ throws sinkers and cutters. Then the next time out, he might throw changeups and curveballs. There has been absolutely no consistency, and that makes him tough.</em></p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t quite changeups <em>and</em> curveballs, but Happ dropped that cutter usage right back down to the bottom. You combine that with strike zone command, and this start is what you get.</p>
<p>Normally we try to leave you with a chart, or a graph that shows you what was successful. But sometimes, you just need to see it for yourself. MLB hasn&#8217;t made this video embeddable yet, but you can <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v682297283/torsf-happ-shuts-out-giants-over-8-23-innings" target="_blank">click this link</a>. And since we don&#8217;t want you to leave empty handed, here&#8217;s a teaser:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/HappPenceK.gif" alt="" width="475" height="263" /></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>36.2 IP, 26 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 13 BB, 29 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR. 2-1, 1.47 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
227.0 IP, 193 H, 85 R, 79 ER, 75 BB, 175 K, 5 HBP, 21 HR. 11-6, 3.13 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Somehow, the Blue Jays managed to top last week&#8217;s performance, throwing more innings, yet allowing fewer earned runs. For the second straight turn, there were no weak links in the rotation chain, as even the worst performance (Dickey) still provided seven innings and two earned runs. If the Jays can keep getting anything close to this level of production, they will be extremely tough to beat.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 10:54:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dealing Out Aces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Mix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2484</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Coming into the season, much of the talk surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays was based around the volatility in the starting rotation, with most people reasonably secure with the bullpen and the offense. Well, in the early parts of 2016, the truth has been anything but. The lineup has really struggled at times, and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Coming into the season, much of the talk surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays was based around the volatility in the starting rotation, with most people reasonably secure with the bullpen and the offense. Well, in the early parts of 2016, the truth has been anything but. The lineup has really struggled at times, and the bullpen has allowed nearly half of all inherited runners to score. On the flip side, the starting pitching has been nothing short of excellent. They lead the league in innings pitched and sit fourth in the AL with a 3.47 ERA.</p>
<p>One of the men who most embodies this flip from expectations is last year’s staff ace, Marco Estrada. 2015 was a magical year for the former Brewer, as he finished fifth in ERA, second in WHIP, and first in opponents batting average. However, coming into this year, many expected regression from the 32-year-old. He had never been as successful as he was in 2015, and it came on the back of a a .216 BABIP. With that said, <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">there were reasons to believe</a> that some of the success would be sustainable. Still, even those who believed in his changes, as I did, expected at least a <em>small</em> step back.</p>
<p>A big part of why many expected that return to “normalcy” from Estrada was the departure of his personal catcher, Dioner Navarro. Navarro is known around the league as an elite pitch caller, and he drastically changed the pitch usage of both Estrada and Mark Buehrle, to tremendous success. Also, like Buehrle, Estrada no longer shakes off his catcher (which he actually learned from the veteran lefty). He just gets the sign and throws the pitch.</p>
<p>Of course, Russell Martin is no slouch when it comes to calling a game. He takes pride in his work with pitchers, and when <a title="Marco Estrada Embraces Leadership Role; Ready to Repeat 2015" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/marco-estrada-embraces-his-leadership-role-ready-to-repeat-2015/" target="_blank">I spoke to Estrada</a> back in spring training, he mentioned that both Martin and Pete Walker had studied what made Estrada so successful last year with an eye to helping it extend into 2016 and beyond.</p>
<p>So far it’s pretty clear that things are working. Estrada has actually lowered his ERA by almost 3/4 of a run, while also increasing his strikeout rate to 23.7 percent. It sounds like he has picked up right where he left off. Well&#8230;sort of. It’s not nearly as drastic <a title="J.A. Not Happy With The Status Quo" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/j-a-not-happy-with-status-quo/" target="_blank">as what happened with J.A. Happ</a>, but Marco Estrada has made some alterations to his work from last year. This is something that we probably could’ve seen coming. From that same Estrada conversation piece I linked above:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Of course, Estrada isn’t done trying to get better just because he seems to have acquired this zen-like trust in his catcher. Like any great athlete, Estrada is always striving to adapt so that he can be the best. He learned his now famous changeup in the minors (from Clint Everts) when he realized he didn’t have enough of a repertoire to get pro hitters out. Then, just last year Estrada added his current cutter, which he now feels comfortable throwing in any count.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>It also just so happens that the first obvious difference comes right out of that very paragraph. Take a look at Estrada’s pitch rates for this season.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Usage-Chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2485" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Usage-Chart.png" alt="Usage Chart" width="500" height="328" /></a></p>
<p>One thing jumps out right away: Estrada has started throwing a lot more cutters, at the expense of his fourseam fastball. At first glace, this might seem like an odd decision. After all, last year, batters hit .323/.333/.613 on plate appearances that ended with the cutter. Well, he has refined the pitch this year and, it has taken a complete turn. Batters are hitting just .143 with zero extra base hits, and he has increased the whiff rate from 8.3 percent up to 19.2 percent.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, the cutter has turned into a pitch that helps Estrada get groundballs. As we all know too well, Marco Estrada is an extreme flyball pitcher (or popup pitcher, as he prefers to be called), but sometimes a groundball is needed to get out of a jam. That’s where the cutter comes in. Last year Estrada was getting groundballs on 37 percent of his cutters. This year, that number is 57.9. As a result, his overall groundball rate on every pitch has risen from 32.2 percent last year up to 42.6 percent so far in 2016.</p>
<p>So why has this happened? Well, here&#8217;s one reason:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Cutter-Chart.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2486" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Cutter-Chart.jpeg" alt="Cutter Chart" width="953" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Estrada is getting a full inch extra of horizontal movement, and about three-quarters of an inch of extra drop (higher numbers mean the piece is fighting gravity, or staying up, more). That would certainly help generate more missed swings and more grounders.</p>
<p>That’s definitely a huge factor in Estrada’s success so far, but it’s still one of his most infrequently thrown pitches (just ahead of the curveball). Marco Estrada makes his money on his fastball and changeup. The change is almost exactly the same as last year, both in movement and location, so there’s not much to say on that subject. It is one of the best changeups in baseball, so there is no clear need to tinker. On the fastball, however, it’s a completely different story.</p>
<p>Last year, Marco Estrada started throwing his fastball up in the zone for the first time in his career. When combined with his elite spin rate, it caused batters to pop up the ball a ton. This year, he is doing things a little bit more traditionally.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2487" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid" width="833" height="233" /></p>
<p>He is still getting elite rise, with his fastball actually dropping <em>less</em>, at 12.9 inches compared to 12.4 inches last year, but he is no longer using it at the top of the zone with the goal of getting easy popups. Instead, he is aiming for weak contact overall on the black of the plate, which is more traditional for a pitcher with an 89 mph fastball.</p>
<p>This is helping with the increased groundball rate, but it also helps explain some of the other ratio changes. By working to the edges with the heater, Estrada gets more swings and misses (17.4 percent this year compared to 15.5 percent last year), but more significantly, he gets fewer swings overall. Last year, batters offered at 48.5 percent of Estrada’s fastballs. This year, that number is down to 42.8 percent. He is also throwing fewer of them in the strike zone, at 49.8 percent down from 51.8. As a result, the walks have gone up slightly. Still, with less consistent and weaker contact, it’s a pretty logical tradeoff.</p>
<p>Like Happ, however, once Estrada gets to two strikes, his approach changes considerably.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-61.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2488" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-61.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (6)" width="830" height="233" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-31.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2490" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-31.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (3)" width="831" height="233" /></a></p>
<p>With his offspeed stuff, Estrada tries to pound the lower part of the zone in zero or one strike counts, but goes down and out of the zone with two strikes. Similarly, he works the fringes of the zone with his fastball and cutter until he gets to a strikeout situation, where he works heavily to the upper part of the zone and off the plate to his arm side. When you combine all of these approaches with Estrada’s devastating changeup, you get more groundballs, more strikeouts, and yes, more walks. Overall, you get the type of performance that we have seen so far this year.</p>
<p>At least in the short term, the Navarro factor seems to have been overstated. Russell Martin isn&#8217;t doing things the same way, but he has made adjustments that are more than paying off for the Marco Estrada. Martin doesn&#8217;t get all the credit, of course. Estrada also did great work refining his cutter, and has had to execute the pitches Martin is putting down.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s obviously still early in the season, as Estrada has made only six starts so far, so I will be checking back in twice more to see how things keep up. I will do it once around the all-star break and once more at the end of the season. However, I don&#8217;t really expect things to change. Russell Martin is an elite catcher, and Marco Estrada is showing that among starting pitchers, he is one of the best bargains in major league baseball.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Pitch Charts Courtesy of Brooks Baseball<br />
</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 2</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2016 15:24:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2189</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at www.mikesonne.ca. Welcome back to the Stuff report! [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at<a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/"> www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
<p>Welcome back to the Stuff report! As mentioned previously, the statistic is a measure of how a pitcher&#8217;s velocity, change in velocity, and amount of break help them perform on the field (Stuff has shown to be significantly correlated with both K/9, WAR, and xFIP/ERA). The benefit of using the Stuff metric, is that you could theoretically look at a pitcher’s arsenal in a bullpen session, and with the use of radar guns and spin trackers, calculate how their good their stuff is without needing to see a hitter swing. This has implications for both scouting and rehabilitation.</p>
<p>At BP Toronto, I&#8217;m calculating Stuff for all of the Jays pitchers, every 2 weeks, over the course of the season. If you&#8217;d like to read a primer on how Stuff is calculated, check out <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/">Volume 1.</a> Once again I have included the raw stuff score, so you can see what they look like, as well as how that scone ranks across baseball. Not that we have all the housekeeping out of the way, let&#8217;s get to the results:</p>
<h1>Blue Jays Starters</h1>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/starters-volume-3.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2199 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/starters-volume-3-1024x201.png" alt="starters volume 3" width="794" height="156" /></a></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Starters-with-Hutch.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2193" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Starters-with-Hutch-1024x742.png" alt="Starters with Hutch" width="478" height="346" /></a></h1>
<p style="text-align: left">I&#8217;d personally like to welcome Drew Hutchison to the Stuff report, whose debut numbers are right in line with the Stuff he had during the 2015 season. That could be a good, or a bad thing, but it will be interesting to see how that plays out should he be recalled at any point. The biggest change in stuff between Volume 1 of the Stuff report and Volume 2 belongs to Marcus Stroman. Stro&#8217;s stuff was down in Volume 1 compared to 2015, but has jumped up big time after his Sunday start. This can be attributed to adding nearly 5&#8243; of break between his fastball and curveball. Not surprisingly, Stro had a massive 8IP, 9K performance against the Rays. Finally, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s Stuff continues to get better. His stuff value has now surpassed 2.0, which houses only the most elite of pitchers. When your stuff is that good, you can really make some hitters look foolish.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=639543883&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Relievers</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/relievers-volume-2.png"><br />
<img class="alignnone  wp-image-2196 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/relievers-volume-2-1024x248.png" alt="relievers volume 2" width="603" height="146" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2191" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief-1024x742.png" alt="Jays Relief" width="526" height="381" /></a></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center"></h1>
<p style="text-align: left">Nearly every Jays&#8217; reliever has seen a slight increase in their stuff over the past two weeks, even if the results haven&#8217;t exactly been there. Hopefully this is a sign that a breakout is on the horizon, and the Toronto bullpen is going to finally start pitching up to expectations. The pen&#8217;s best stuff belongs to Joe Biagini &#8211; buoyed by a massive amount of separation between his breaking pitches and his fastball. This type of stuff could keep the Rule V pick around all season, and potentially see him take on a larger role as the season progresses.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/BiaginiHanleyK.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2207" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/BiaginiHanleyK.gif" alt="BiaginiHanleyK" width="475" height="263" /></a></p>
<p>As for the rest of the pen, Roberto Osuna and Jesse Chavez are also still showing excellent stuff, with a nice boost for Chavez. However, the biggest increase in stuff belongs to Gavin Floyd. Even though his Stuff is worse than it was in 2015, Floyd is making nice strides which is key, seeing as he is such an important weapon for John Gibbons.</p>
<p>You&#8217;ll also notice that Venditte scores all the way down at the bottom, but that&#8217;s because he, like the knuckleballing Dickey, breaks the stuff metric. As he throws with both arms, the break on Venditte&#8217;s pitches cancel each other out, and it appears as though all of his pitched are flat, when in reality that is not at all the case. It&#8217;s pretty funny that there are three pitchers in baseball for whom &#8220;stuff&#8221; does not really apply (Steven Wright is the third), and the Blue Jays have two of them.</p>
<p>Overall, the Stuff trends for the Blue Jays pitching staff show some encouraging signs. Hopefully this means the bullpen is about to rid themselves of their early season woes, and that the starters will continue their excellence.</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: The Return of Drew</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Apr 2016 17:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1984</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The last [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The last stroll through the Blue Jays rotation included continued dominance from Sanchez, Stroman, and Happ, another stumble from R.A. Dickey, and a mediocre turn from Estrada, all against the rough and tumble AL East. This week&#8217;s slate included the final AL East series for a while, a visit from the Oakland A&#8217;s and a return of an old friend.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 67 Strikes, 34 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch mix: 3 Fourseam Fastballs, 55 Sinkers, 18 Changeups, 16 Sliders, 5 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t quite the dominance that Stroman showed over the Yankees in his last outing, but once again Toronto&#8217;s nominal ace showed why he is being counted on to lead this pitching staff in 2016. Facing a tough Orioles lineup, Stroman allowed just seven baserunners in seven innings, and was only hurt by the long ball, with home runs coming off the bats of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, both of whom will do that on occasion. The second of those blasts came with nobody out in the seventh and a runner on, cutting the Blue Jays lead from 4-1 to 4-3. It was actually the third time this season in four outings that Stroman has allowed runs in his final inning of work, twice by allowing home runs. Still, it was a very strong performance, and nobody can ask for more than he gave.</p>
<p>One thing that may be sticking out to you so far is how few punch outs Stroman is getting in 2016. His strikeout rate on the season is just 13.3 percent, which is <em>well</em> below league average. Instead, it has been groundballs and weak contact that have been carrying the Duke grad through the day. Against the Orioles, Stroman managed to generate ground balls on 52.2 percent of balls in play. It wasn&#8217;t quite the crazy ratio he showed against the Yankees (73.9 percent), but still well above the league norm. He also used a much greater variety in his pitches this time out, throwing a bunch of changeups and sliders, but very few curves or cutters. He also brought out a few fourseam fastballs, which is something he has been avoiding since the season opener against the Rays. It&#8217;s a good pitch for swings and misses if used more often, but has more value as one to generate popups from people expecting his sinker. After all, the four-seamer drops five inches fewer on average than Stroman&#8217;s sinker.</p>
<p>In the end, Stroman succeeded because he pounded the strike zone (only three three-ball counts), kept the ball down and changed speeds with a variety of pitches. If a pitcher can do two of those things, he usually has a chance to win. Stroman did all three.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/speed.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_04_19_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP 0 HR, 58 Strikes, 36 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 83 Knuckleballs, 10 Twoseam Fastballs, 1 Changeup</strong></p>
<p>When this game started, it looked like it was going to be yet another R.A. Dickey April Disaster™. The first four hitters went groundball single, rocket double, walk, rocket single. That left runners on the corners with nobody out, and two runs already in. But Dickey settled down quickly, getting a double play grounder (which scored another run) and a strikeout to end the inning. From that point on, Dickey only allowed three more baserunners, two of whom were immediately erased on double plays. In the end, he had put up his first &#8220;Quality Start&#8221; of the season, against an offense that had been on fire in the early part of the season.</p>
<p>Oftentimes the biggest factor for Dickey&#8217;s success is merely his ability to get ahead of hitters. When he is falling behind, batters can sit on a knuckler in a specific spot, or if they&#8217;re way ahead, the extremely hittable fastball. When that happens, Dickey gets crushed. That wasn&#8217;t the case this time out though, as after the shaky first (3/6 first pitch strikes), Dickey started off 75 percent of the hitters he faced with a pitch in the zone.</p>
<p>The other noteworthy thing is that Dickey threw a changeup in this game. As <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/changing-things-up-r-a-dickey-change-up/" target="_blank">I have mentioned in the past</a>, Dickey has a very good changeup. As a knuckleballer, it&#8217;s something he doesn&#8217;t need to break out too many times in a game, but he should go to it more often when he&#8217;s behind in the count if only to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. Now, he only threw the one in this game, but if he starts breaking it out more often, we could see a lot more of this:</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://gifs.houseofthebluebird.com/wp-content/uploads/DickeyChange1.gif" alt="" width="478" height="270" /></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 62 strikes, 42 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 44 Fourseam Fastballs, 30 Changeups, 8 Curveballs, 15 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>This was certainly an unusual performance from Marco Estrada. After all, it&#8217;s not often you see a player put up a line that sees him leave the game with a higher WHIP (2.00) than ERA (1.80). It was definitely a struggle, as last year&#8217;s standout pitcher threw 104 pitches in just five innings, with just 59.6 percent of them going for strikes. He gave up a lot of hits and quite a few walks, which meant there were baserunners on pretty much the whole game. The reason only one of them actually came around to score is that Estrada kept on getting huge strikeouts in key spots. He finished the game with nine, which leaves him with 20 Ks on the season in just 18 innings pitched. He was always something of a strikeout pitcher in Milwaukee, so it&#8217;s nice to see this ability returning in the early going.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s something I&#8217;m going to harp on every time I write one of these, but Estrada&#8217;s biggest success comes when he is working up in the zone with his fastball, and this game was a perfect example of that. Three of the four hits on fastballs came on pitches low in the zone, but for the most part he worked hard up and soft down, keeping the Orioles hitters off balance enough to get those big strikeouts when he needed them.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_04_21_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 53 strikes, 32 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 8 Fourseam Fastballs, 48 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, 15 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>The last time I did one of these I said it was getting hard to come up with superlatives to describe Aaron Sanchez so far this season. Well&#8230;he made it a little easier this time, having easily his worst start of the season, and probably the worst of his career.</p>
<p>Coming home after two very tough losses to the Orioles, the Jays were hoping that Sanchez could continue his dominant run and get them back in the win column. Instead, he got ripped around the ballpark, giving up a career high 10 hits and allowing more runs than innings pitched for the first time in his career as a starter. It was also the second shortest outing of his career, behind only his first career start which came against the Orioles last year. To put it simply, he was really bad. He wasn&#8217;t helped much by his defense, as Josh Donaldson missed a would-be double play ball in the second inning (which led to a runner being thrown out at home, so he still got one out), which was then followed by a groundout. Instead of being out of the inning, Sanchez still had an out to go and then promptly served up a three-run homer to Chris Coghlan. Overall though, this loss was on Sanchez, and he knows it.</p>
<p>If someone wanted to figure out what went wrong, they might first notice that Sanchez threw a lot more changeups than his last start when he dominated the Red Sox. In fact, this led Greg Wisniewski to suggest that Sanchez <a title="Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">can succeed as two-pitch pitcher</a> who relies heavily on his fastball. Interestingly though, nine of the ten A&#8217;s hits came on Sanchez fastballs, with the other coming on a cutter. And he was throwing some of the curveballs and changeups for strikes, so it wasn&#8217;t as though people were able to just sit back and wait for the fastball.</p>
<p>The biggest reason for the struggles is that Sanchez&#8217; fastball just wasn&#8217;t good in this game. It was the slowest it has been all season by both average velocity (94.34) and max velocity (96.59). He was also getting less movement on it, with over an inch less horizontal run than his previous low (7.82&#8243; vs 8.83&#8243;), and nearly 2.5 inches off of his season high (10.28&#8243;). As a pitcher who relies on a big time fastball to generate the vast majority of his outs, it&#8217;s tough to succeed when that fastball isn&#8217;t there. Hopefully the extra rest for his next start helps bring back the successful version of the heater.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1985" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)" width="750" height="262" /></a></p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 59 strikes, 34 balls.</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 31 Fourseam Fastballs, 23 Sinkers, 13 Cutters, 9 Changeups, and 16 Curveballs.</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ continues to make Tony LaCava look good, showing that the Jays were wise to invest in him this season. For the second straight start, Happ went seven innings, something he accomplished just six times all of last season. He gave up a season high three runs, but if that&#8217;s something you can say, you know someone has been pitching well.</p>
<p>The results were somewhat interesting, as despite throwing 70.3 percent first pitch strikes (which is excellent), Happ struck out only one batter. However, he also generated groundballs at a greater than 50 percent clip (52.2) for the second time this season. This is an interesting development for a pitcher who came into the season with a 38.8 percent groundball rate for his career. In fact, he used those grounders to generate three double plays, two of which preceded run-scoring singles.</p>
<p>As mentioned, Happ has done this twice, the other time coming against the New York Yankees in his second outing of the season. So logically, we should see if there was anything in common between those two starts:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1986" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (4)" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the two outings where Happ generated a high percentage of grounders, he used the curveball a <em>lot</em> more often than in the two outings where he was getting flyballs. This is a trend that should be interesting to watch, as the Jays have one of the best defensive infields in baseball (if not <em>the </em>best), and it could help him get out of a lot of jams.</p>
<h3>Drew Hutchison</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 55 strikes, 40 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 54 Fourseam Fastballs, 6 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, and 25 Sliders.</strong></p>
<p>In an effort to give the rest of the rotation a little bit of rest, the Blue Jays called up a former face for a spot start.</p>
<p>Drew Hutchison hadn&#8217;t exactly been dazzling in Buffalo, but Toronto hadn&#8217;t had an off day since the start of the Yankees series and needed the spot start. The overall results of the outing were pretty decent, as Hutch allowed only the two runs and struck out five. Sure, he also walked three batters and both runs were scored on home run balls, but as spot starts go, the Jays couldn&#8217;t have asked for more.</p>
<p>Of course, this wasn&#8217;t just any spot start. It was also last year&#8217;s opening day starter trying to show that he belongs in the big leagues. So while the totals were good, the actual process was mixed:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The good: Hutch is throwing hard and his slider looks WAY better. <br />The bad: He still has absolutely no fastball command.</p>
<p>&mdash; Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/724302164554833920">April 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>A big part of the problem for Drew Hutchison last year was that he simply lost the slider that had earned him so much praise at the end of 2014. He was throwing it harder and it was flattening out (see image below). In his first outing this year, both of those problems seemed to be corrected; he was throwing it a bit slower and getting much more drop. In addition, he was able to throw it for strikes (68 percent of pitches) which helped him get whiffs (misses on 25 percent of swings).</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t the only problem though. Hutchison also struggled with his fastball command in 2015, leaving a bunch of them up in the zone. He got more swings and misses, but also gave up a lot of hard contact. It was much of the same on Sunday, as Hutchison was all over the place with his fastball, and very rarely down in the zone. He&#8217;s going to need to correct this if he wants to return to the major leagues full time.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1987" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (5)" width="750" height="252" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>35.0 IP, 38 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, 2 HBP, 6 HR. 2-2, 4.63 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
123.0 IP, 114 H, 54 R, 50 ER, 41 BB, 95 K, 4 HBP, 12 HR. 9-5, 3.66 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>With the exception of a dreadful start from Aaron Sanchez, the Blue Jays have to be pretty pleased with how the rotation performed this time through. No other starter gave up more than three runs, and a solid start from R.A. Dickey must have been particularly nice to see. Next week&#8217;s games come against the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays, both of whom possess weak hitting lineups.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
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		<title>So There IS Another Division: Athletics Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/so-there-is-another-division-athletics-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/so-there-is-another-division-athletics-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Apr 2016 16:13:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics Friday, April 22nd &#8211; Sunday, April 24th Preview written by Jenn Smith and Sean Addis. The Blue Jays head home after completing a disappointing road trip through Boston and Baltimore, finishing with two one-run heartbreaking losses. The offence continues to struggle if your name isn’t Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion or the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Friday, April 22nd &#8211; Sunday, April 24th</h3>
<p><em>Preview written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/baseballjenn/" target="_blank">Jenn Smith</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/seanaddis/" target="_blank">Sean Addis</a>.</em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays head home after completing a disappointing road trip through Boston and Baltimore, finishing with two one-run heartbreaking losses. The offence continues to struggle if your name isn’t Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion or the newly resurgent Michael Saunders. Saunders was put into the lead off spot in game three of the Red Sox series and has been very effective. In 21 at bats he has eight hits, five runs scored and three walks, maybe a change in the line up would be good for some other Jays hitters. The other change is that the Blue Jays are finally finished with their march through the AL East gauntlet, with the next five series coming against opponents from other divisions.</p>
<p>In contrast to the inconsistent Blue Jays, the Oakland Athletics, come into this series on fire. They have just complete a three game series sweep against the New York Yankees, have won five in a row, to go with a 6-0 record on the road this year. The Athletics pitching staff has been one of the best in the American League with a 2.76 ERA, and the bullpen has not allowed one of their 26 inherited runners to score this season. This series might be a challenge for a Jays team looking to break out of a season long slump.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, April 22nd – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Sonny Gray</strong></p>
<p>Though it has only been three starts, Aaron Sanchez has thus far proven why his rightful place is in the starting rotation. In 20.0 innings pitched, he has an impressive 1.35 ERA, 9.00 K/9 rate and 3.15 BB/9 rate. More significant is his well above league-average 59.2 percent ground ball rate, which is of particular importance against the hitters of the AL East, especially considering the Jays’ stellar infield defense. <a title="Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">Sanchez has relied primarily on his 96 mph sinker</a>, which generates more whiffs/swing than the average sinkers, while mixing in his 96 mph four-seam fastball and 78 mph curve. So when he is also throwing a good changeup, it&#8217;s borderline unfair. In his last outing, he held the Red Sox hitless until two outs in the fifth, eventually striking out seven and walking four while giving up just one run on two hits over seven solid innings.</p>
<p>Since his call-up to the majors in 2013, Sonny Gray has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. Both his 93 mph fourseam fastball and sinker generate a high percentage of ground balls, but given the defense behind him (more on that later), this may actually benefit the Jays. He has a wicked slider and hard curve that he uses to generate strikeouts, while his changeup is used more to create weak contact. After being scratched from Opening Night with a bout of food poisoning, Gray is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 7.91 K/9 and 3.72 K/9 over 19.1 innings. His most recent outing was a six-inning, 114-pitch battle that resulted in a 5-3 victory over the Royals. The only member of the Blue Jays’ lineup who has had success versus Gray is Jose Bautista, who is 5-for-10 lifetime against the right-hander.</p>
<h4>Saturday, April 25th – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Chris Bassitt</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ has carried over last season’s second half resurgence into the early days of the 2016 season. He is coming off his best outing of the season against the Red Sox, where he pitched seven four-hit innings and allowed just one run. He has averaged over six innings a game in his first three starts, which has been the bigger story. Even in his best career run last season with the Pirates, he averaged only 5.2 innings per start. If he can continue to go deep (ish) into games, he will have tremendous value. Since 2013, Happ has pitched five times against the Athletics with a 2.02 ERA over 31.1 innings, so he will be hoping to continue that dominance in game two of the series.</p>
<p>Right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt was one of the four players acquired when the A&#8217;s shipped Jeff Samardzija to the White Sox prior to last season. He has impressed with a 2.79 ERA in three starts, and is coming off back to back seven inning quality performances against the Royals and the Mariners. He throws a lot of sliders and curveballs, and by Mike Sonne&#8217;s metric, has <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/" target="_blank">some of the best &#8220;stuff&#8221; in the game</a>. He has only faced three Blue Jays, we will see whether that will be an advantage for Bassitt or the Blue Jays hitters on Saturday afternoon.</p>
<h4>Sunday, April 24th – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Eric Surkamp</strong><br />
In his 28.1 innings pitched over the course of three starts, Marcus Stroman has looked both brilliant and somewhat shaky. Either way, he has gotten the job done, sporting a 3-0 record thanks to a little help from his friends – namely, some timely hitting from Jays’ hitters. His 4.13 ERA and 4.76 K/9 rate suggest that his starts have not entirely been smooth sailing, but his highly impressive 61.8 percent ground ball rate (league average is around 44) has helped bail him out of some tough spots. Stroman credits his newly-developed power sinker – which he throws at 92 mph to generate an extreme number of ground balls – as key to his success. His slider (85 mph) and change up (84 mph) also generate a high percentage of ground balls. Expect the Stro Show to be on full display against this Athletics’ lineup, most of whom have yet to face the Jays’ anointed ace.</p>
<p>Eric Surkamp has experienced a tumultuous start this his major league career. After two seasons with the San Francisco Giants, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012 and has since been a member of four different teams. Surkamp relies primarily on his fourseam fastball, which is thrown with below-average velocity and generates its fair share of fly balls. He also mixes in a cutter and a change. In his three starts this season, Surkamp is 0-for-1 with a 3.68 ERA over just 14.2 innings. On the bubble with regards to his place in the rotation, Surkamp pitched well enough in his last outing against the Yankees to help his team secure the win, though he earned a no-decision for the affair. His inability to miss bats, the flyballs and his throwing hand all add up to a potentially very favourable matchup for the hometown boys in blue.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Relief pitcher Jesse Chavez has been out of action of late due to back pain, and the team hopes he can take the ball this weekend against his former team. This loss greatly impacted the bullpen usage by manager John Gibbons and could have factored in a couple of the losses against Baltimore. It is worth monitoring when and if Chavez will be used this series. If the injury is prolonged or persistent, it could result in a trip to the disabled list.</p>
<p>Former Blue Jay third baseman Danny Valencia was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain suffered on Wednesday’s game against the Yankees. He was hitting .294/.345/.353 in 55 plate appearances. It is expected that Oakland will call up utility player Tyler Ladendorf, who can play all infield and outfield positions, from Triple-A Nashville. In the absence of Valencia it is expected that Chris Coghlan will see most of the action at third base.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4><strong>The Jays&#8217; (Lack of) Offense </strong></h4>
<p>Seventeen games is certainly early in the season, but the all-world offense of 2015 has yet to materialize. Through the first seventeen games last season, the Jays had scored a total of 84 runs and had put up more than five runs in nine of those games, while striking out a total of 120 times. Over the same period this season, the Jays have managed just 65 runs while racking up a whopping 161 strike outs, and have scored more than five runs just twice. The team is batting a collective .232/.315/.375 and, outside the first four in the lineup, have looked quite lost at the plate. It is a worrying trend given that this team is built on offense. Despite this, the Jays have nearly an identical record as they did at this time last year – they are 8-9 as opposed to 9-8. Credit the Jays’ starting pitching – which has thus far been better than predicted – for picking up the slumping offense.</p>
<h4><strong>The Athletics&#8217; Defense</strong></h4>
<p>Once built with a defense-first mentality, the Athletics are fielding a team of below-average defenders at every position except for Josh Reddick and Yonder Alonso. Coco Crisp was once an elite defender as well, but injury and age seem to have taken their toll, and he is now something of a liability. This bodes well for the Jays&#8217; struggling offense, who, if they can just put the ball in play, may be able to take advantage of the A&#8217;s trouble catching the ball and break out of their slump.</p>
<h4><strong>The Blue Jays Bullpen</strong></h4>
<p>With the aforementioned questionable availability of Jesse Chavez, the Blue Jays are somehow looking at a tired, depleted bullpen despite their starters leading the American League in innings pitched. In the finale against the Orioles, Pat Venditte was asked to throw two innings, despite none of Brett Cecil, Drew Storen, or Roberto Osuna having thrown on back to back days. This suggests that some of these arms may be feeling a little overworked by all the close games early in the season.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 1057px;height: 331px;background-color: #ffffff" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Oakland Athletics</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Billy Burns (CF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders (LF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Coco Crisp (LF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson (3B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Reddick (RF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista (RF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jed Lowrie (2B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion (DH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Stephen Vogt (C)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki (SS)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Coghlan (3B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin (C)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Khris Davis (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak (1B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Yonder Alonso (1B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar (CF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Marcus Semien (SS)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins (2B)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will be looking for a series win against an opponent that, while playing well, is inferior on paper in all aspects of the game. If even one or two of the slumping Blue Jays can snap out of it, and the relievers are all healthy and able to take the mound, there is a good chance the Jays can pull this one off.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Apr 2016 13:31:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Mix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1734</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I must confess, I didn&#8217;t start this piece out with the idea of making declarations about Aaron Sanchez and his arsenal on the mound. I started, quite innocently, with a pitch chart from Brooks Baseball. For those of you who might not be familiar with the chart I am talking about, let me illustrate first, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I must confess, I didn&#8217;t start this piece out with the idea of making declarations about Aaron Sanchez and his arsenal on the mound. I started, quite innocently, with a pitch chart from Brooks Baseball. For those of you who might not be familiar with the chart I am talking about, let me illustrate first, and then explain.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/stroman-pitch-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1735 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/stroman-pitch-chart.png" alt="stroman pitch chart" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>This is a Marcus Stroman pitch chart. Why did I pick a Marcus Stroman chart when this piece is about Aaron Sanchez? Because Stroman&#8217;s chart looks how a starter&#8217;s velocity chart should look. As you can see, it marks each pitch by its velocity on the vertical axis and its pitch number on the horizontal. It&#8217;s one way to look at a pitcher&#8217;s performance in one glance. You can see, reading from left to right, if a pitcher is tiring by looking at the max MPH on the fastballs. Stroman loses about one MPH over his first 90 pitches, and then suddenly another one in his last ten pitches. It&#8217;s nothing that should set off alarm bells, but he was tiring. You can also see that he only used about five of his slow curveballs all night, way down there at 79-82 mph, but mixed his pitches and velocities around for the whole outing. Stroman&#8217;s chart looks normal. He mixes his pitches well, and he&#8217;s know for having five or six good ones at his disposal. This is how, we are told, he keeps hitters in check.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve established what a pitch chart from a successful starter with a wide mix of pitches looks like, we will shift our focus to Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez battled, and brought under control to some extent, wildness as a starter in 2015, and then proceeded get injured. After the injury he returned to the bullpen. With no worries about facing a lineup for the second time, or so the conventional wisdom goes, he could focus on his best pitch, a 96-98mph sinker. Even as sinkers go, it&#8217;s a remarkable pitch.</p>
<p>In 2016, of course, he earned a slot in the rotation again. According to popular theory, he needs to find a three pitch mix in order to survive multiple times through a big league lineup. His pitch mix from each year in the majors is as follows.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-pitch-perc-by-year.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1737" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-pitch-perc-by-year.png" alt="sanchez pitch perc by year" width="785" height="205" /></a></p>
<p>Now that&#8217;s not a big change from 2014 to 2015 when viewed as an entire season&#8217;s worth of data. A couple fewer sinkers, more curves and more changeups. Also, it looks like a three or four pitch mix: Four Seam, Sinker, Curve, Change. According to the velocity charts, the sinker and four seam fastball come in at the same average velocity. They are two different pitches, but they are equal in how long a hitter has to react.</p>
<p>I would take a position that says the pitch mix shown above is incredibly misleading. We need to zoom in. If you read my features regularly, I&#8217;m a big fan of zooming in to see what&#8217;s going on. Here is the game by game breakdown for 2016.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1738" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2016.png" alt="sanchez 2016" width="789" height="168" /></a></p>
<p>In Tampa, Sanchez (or possibly Martin if you feel he is the guiding force) really tried to mix it up. He threw almost 30 percent offspeed stuff, and it worked; he got a lot of swings and misses from a very aggressive Rays club. One run, seven innings, 91 pitches. And because it worked so well, Sanchez dumped the changeup almost entirely when facing the Yankees. That makes no sense, but it&#8217;s true! He threw more sinkers and featured more curveballs. The result: One run, six innings, 97 pitches. And, of course, because the curveball worked so well, he threw fewer of those against Boston, forgot about the changeup entirely, and it worked too! This time: One run, seven innings, 105 pitches. Everything works!</p>
<p>Who is really in charge of the choices here is a difficult to tell, since I can&#8217;t zoom inside a player&#8217;s head to learn the reasoning behind these choices. The changing pitch mix might be a result of scouting reports, or his command of certain pitches on a certain day. I don&#8217;t know. The fact remains, Sanchez does not need to &#8220;keep hitters off balance&#8221; to be successful. So far they haven&#8217;t solved any of his patterns. And as we are about to see, &#8220;patterns&#8221; may be overstating his pitching strategy here.</p>
<p>Now we finally get to the image that sent me on the long quest for answers about Aaron Sanchez&#8217; pitch mix:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/vs-boston-velo-chart-green.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1739" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/vs-boston-velo-chart-green.png" alt="vs boston velo chart green" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>This is the Sanchez velocity chart for his start at Fenway. I have added some green lines for effect. Between pitch 21 and pitch 83, Sanchez threw exactly two pitches that were not fastballs. That&#8217;s 60 out of 62 pitches where Boston players had a pretty good idea what would be coming next. If you&#8217;re curious, the pitch f/x record shows one of those curveballs was a called ball, the other a called strike.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s kind of crazy. Historically Sanchez has been a contact guy with big groundball tendencies. That&#8217;s still true. Yes, he had a bunch swings and misses against the Rays, and we watched them swing early and often for the whole four game series, but Sanchez is still a contact guy. Some things have looked better though. When he was starting in 2015, he was throwing 58 percent strikes. So far 2016 has seen 63 percent strikes thrown. His first pitch strike percentage is up from 53.2 percent to 59 percent this year. As a result, batters should know what&#8217;s coming now, and expect it to be in the zone. Yet for some reason, they still can&#8217;t hit it hard. That&#8217;s good. It means that 96 mph with wicked movement is the real tool in Sanchez&#8217; arsenal.</p>
<p>Of course, I wondered, is this use of exclusively hard pitches a weird exception? Should Sanchez be trying to mix in that third and fourth pitch to keep hitters &#8220;honest&#8221; as they say? Well, in 2015, he had the opportunity to try a lot of things.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2015-pitch-mix-starter.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1736" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2015-pitch-mix-starter.png" alt="sanchez 2015 pitch mix starter" width="788" height="461" /></a></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s look closer at what kind of arsenal got him what sort of results. Until the April 27th start in Boston, Sanchez had all kinds of trouble finding the strike zone, meaning that those mixes might reflect far more of a struggle with command than a real plan of attack. So instead we&#8217;ll start when he began to throw more strikes. On May 2nd, he threw 66 percent fastballs, and the most curveballs of his career. On May 8th he went back up to 75 percent fastballs, and threw seven innings with five walks, but zero runs allowed. He walked six in against Cleveland in 5.2 innings. On May 13th, the threw more four-seamers than in any other start. He walked four while giving up five runs to Baltimore, in 5.2 innings pitched.  From this point on it looks like there was a decision to throw the fastball more, and when it worked, (three walks and three runs in 7. 1 innings against Anaheim), they decided to throw it even more. And then more. And then even more. For a starter, throwing 90 percent fastballs is supposed to be ridiculous. Sanchez did it anyway. Look what happened:</p>
<p>Eight solid innings against Houston. No walks. Two runs, only one of which was earned, both in the ninth inning. I present to you the velocity chart from that game:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/june-5-2015-vs-houston1.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1746" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/june-5-2015-vs-houston1.gif" alt="june 5 2015 vs houston" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve added green bars again. Again, lets look at how many fastballs he used in-between the bars. Between pitch four and pitch 64, I count two changeups and two curveballs. Houston didn&#8217;t even have to worry about the four seam fastball. It was wall-to-wall sinkers for four innings. There&#8217;s your evidence that the plan of attack against Boston wasn&#8217;t necessarily a fluke. Just like the Red Sox last week, the Astros couldn&#8217;t figure out how to hit the same pitch, coming at them over and over again.</p>
<p>When Aaron Sanchez keeps the baseball in the zone, and gets the first pitch in the zone, he&#8217;s very, very difficult to square up. This has been true even when batters should know what he&#8217;s doing. Not every pitcher can say that. If controlling the fastball is the key, let him focus on it as much as he wants. The curveball and the changeup can be implicit weapons, not explicit ones. There&#8217;s nothing in his career as a starter that says he&#8217;s any better using three pitches.</p>
<p>So, what other starting pitchers are reliant on the fastball? There were three pitchers in 2015 who qualified as starters and threw over 70 percent fastballs: Lance Lynn (85.4 percent fastballs) is close in K/9 and BB/9, but is a fly ball pitcher (44 percent GB rate). Bartolo Colon (83.8 percent fastballs) throws 88 mph, not 95, so it&#8217;s not the same method as Sanchez. Mike Pelfrey (73.9 percent fastballs) can&#8217;t strike anybody out (5.12 K/9 career), and uses a split finger as his second pitch. He has also struggled to do more than eat innings for the last few years. This means that if Sanchez focuses on the fastball, he&#8217;ll be doing it in a way unlike any pitcher currently starting in MLB.</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is a truly unique animal, and Jays fans should be happy to have him.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bobb DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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