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	<title>Toronto &#187; Series Preview</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/11/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-orioles-3/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Sep 2017 16:35:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Bennett Brauer, and Joshua Howsam Can the Blue Jays Pitcher’s Exploit Baltimore’s Swing First Lineup? The Orioles have spent most of their 2017 season following their typical formula for contention: pair a strong offence with an elite bullpen and cross your fingers that the starting pitching will be good enough. Despite [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Bennett Brauer, and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<h3><strong>Can the Blue Jays Pitcher’s Exploit Baltimore’s Swing First Lineup?</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Orioles have spent most of their 2017 season following their typical formula for contention: pair a strong offence with an elite bullpen and cross your fingers that the starting pitching will be good enough.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Despite a starting rotation that has struggled (5.63 starter’s ERA), the Orioles have managed to remain within spitting distance of the second AL Wildcard spot with less than a month to play. Baltimore</span><span style="font-weight: 400">’s ability to remain on the fringes of contention hinges largely on an offense that has continued to produce at a high level &#8211; ranking in the top ten in runs scored (10</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">), slugging (4</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">) and wRC+ (9</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">). Only the Texas Rangers have hit more home runs than the Orioles this season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Although it may seem difficult to keep the Orioles off the scoreboard, they do appear to have one glaring flaw in the offensive game. The Orioles sit dead last in all of baseball in team walk rate, at 6.4%.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Adam Jones is the worst culprit among full-time starters (4.3%), but part-timers Caleb Joseph (4.1%) and Joey Rickard (3.4%) are also extreme hackers. Jonathan Schoop and Wellington Castillo aren&#8217;t exactly patient either (both 5.4%). In fact, the only Oriole batters to post a walk rate better than eight percent (MLB average is 8.6%) are Chris Davis and Seth Smith.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If Blue Jays’ pitchers can exploit the Orioles tendency to swing more often than take, they might be able to reduce the damage Baltimore’s offence can inflict. If not, runs could be going up in bunches. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In either case, don’t expect to see too many Baltimore hitters working a walk.</span></p>
<h3><strong><b>Worlds Apart at 2B</b></strong></h3>
<p>For much of the second half of their existence, the Blue Jays have had very good second basemen. Hall of Fame inductee Roberto Alomar was world class, Orlando Hudson and Aaron Hill were the mainstays, Johnny Mac’s blue collar hustle made him the fan favourite, and most recently, Devon Travis has shown flashes of greatness when rarely healthy.</p>
<p>This year is very different, however, as a season-ending injury to Travis has caused a huge hole in their lineup.</p>
<p>Darwin Barney, bless his heart, has assumed the brunt of the 2B work, playing 61 games, sporting a meager season-long .587 OPS. Ryan Goins (part-time shortstop) hasn&#8217;t been much better, with a .616 OPS despite good RISP numbers. And the less said about Rob Refsnyder&#8217;s performance, the better.</p>
<p>As a result, it is <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/05/the-blue-jays-need-to-consider-a-future-without-devon-travis/" target="_blank">no wonder</a> why <a href="https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-al-notes-white-sox-farm-system-gets-even-better/" target="_blank">there are whispers</a> that the front office is looking for a long-term solution to this predicament.</p>
<p>Contrast that with the Orioles, who seem to have found lightning in a bottle with their second baseman, Jonathan Schoop. Schoop is at the top of many key offensive categories: 2<sup>nd</sup> in the AL in RBI (102), 7th in AL batting average, 10<sup>th</sup> in AL slugging percentage (.535), and 10<sup>th</sup> overall in offensive WAR across ALL of MLB (4.8) with a VORP of 39.3. All of that leaves him 12th in MLB among position players in WARP (4.9).</p>
<p>Not only are those overall numbers excellent, but he has been remarkably consistent this season as well. His first half line saw him put up a .347 OBP and a .536 SLG. In the second half, Schoop has a .355 OBP and a .533 SLG. In short, he has mashed pretty much all season.</p>
<p>With many key Orioles like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado (for much of the season) and every starting pitcher not named Dylan Bundy having down years, Schoop has helped keep the Orioles in the Wild Card race. The Jays will have to be very careful with him.</p>
<p>With Schoop under team control through the 2019 season, this position is currently headed in VERY different directions for both teams.</p>
<h3>Will Anybody Come Out And Watch?</h3>
<p>That may seem like an odd question to ask considering the team is currently on pace to surpass three million in attendance for the second straight year. But despite the second highest average attendance in the AL (Yankees are first), there were a lot of empty seats last weekend against the Tigers. The Friday game had an announced crowd of nearly 40K, but nowhere near that many actually showed up. So while the team still banked those gate receipts, concession sales were likely way down.</p>
<p>However, the series finale was likely the real red flag. The 31 961 announced crowd (with again, many no-shows) for a sunny, September, Sunday game &#8211; when the Blue Jays were likely hoping for something close to a sellout &#8211; had to be a massive disappointment both to the players and the front office.</p>
<p>And that was on a weekend. If that level of interest is any indication, the Orioles series in particular is looking like it could bring back some reminders of what Skydome crowds were like before Alex Anthopoulos traded for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price in 2015. One only needs to look at secondary markets to see how &#8220;popular&#8221; the team is right now. For Monday&#8217;s game, fans can sit in the Field Level Infield section (face value of $80) for $6 USD. That&#8217;s the minimum price that StubHub will allow. Tuesday and Wednesday aren&#8217;t looking much better.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not hard to understand this fan frustration of course. When it comes to playing out the string, the Jays can&#8217;t even market coming out to see the star players, as Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis, and Aaron Sanchez are still out, with only Martin having any chance of a return before season&#8217;s end. Sure, there&#8217;s value in seeing the kids (Richard Urena in particular has looked very good), but that&#8217;s hard to sell. Similarly, telling fans to &#8220;come watch the last days of Jose Bautista in a Blue Jays uniform&#8221; isn&#8217;t exactly a message that the team can deliver. It may be (sadly) true (and a very good reason to show up), but they sure can&#8217;t say that out loud.</p>
<p>All this adds up to a quiet, cavernous stadium that hurts not only the in-stadium atmosphere but also the television product. All of this probably has the Blue Jays brass counting their lucky stars that there aren&#8217;t many home games left this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Tigers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/14/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-tigers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Jul 2017 19:31:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Cabrera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12377</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dylan Svoboda, Joshua Howsam, and Rachael McDaniel Lumbering Tigers The Blue Jays won&#8217;t have to worry about the Detroit Tigers while the latter are on the bases this week. The Tigers have been the second-worst base running team at -8.2 base running runs according to Baseball Prospectus. They have also stolen just twenty-nine bases [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dylan Svoboda, Joshua Howsam, and Rachael McDaniel</em></p>
<h4>Lumbering Tigers</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays won&#8217;t have to worry about the Detroit Tigers while the latter are on the bases this week. The Tigers have been the second-worst base running team at -8.2 base running runs according to Baseball Prospectus. They have also stolen just twenty-nine bases as a team so far this year, tied for fourth-least in baseball. That means the Jays&#8217; backstop due of Russell Martin and Miguel Montero, who have both been well below average at throwing out base runners this year, should not have to worry much about basestealers. Not only are the Tigers the worst team in terms of stolen base runs (SBR), they are well below-average in groundball advancement runs (GAR), air advancement runs (AAR), and hit advancement runs (HAR).</p>
<p>The Tigers have the second and third worst baserunners in the league according to BRR, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. The team is saved from being a historically bad base running team by Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias, who rank eighth and thirtieth in BRR respectively. They don&#8217;t have another player with over 0.6 BRR and have nine different individuals who have been worth negative BRR.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the Tigers have been one of the slowest teams in baseball. They have just three regulars who are above average for their position in Statcast&#8217;s Sprint Speed metric, Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, and Justin Upton. On the flip side, Victor Martinez has been one of the slowest runners in the league. He is tied with Jett Bandy for the fourth-slowest sprint speed. Cabrera isn&#8217;t exactly fleet afoot either, as he is tied for twenty-ninth slowest in the league and thirteenth-slowest when not including catchers. The Blue Jays will be able to worry a little less when allowing base runners this week.</p>
<h4>No Help for Struggling Arms</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays will send three struggling pitchers to the mound in this series against the Tigers, Aaron Sanchez (still rounding back into form following his finger injury), Francisco Liriano, and Marco Estrada. Those three enter the weekend with ERAs of 4.85, 5.56, and 5.17, respectively. The underlying metrics aren&#8217;t so kind either, as each man has a DRA over over 5.30 (including a horrendous 7.40 for Estrada).</p>
<p>The reason the Jays set their rotation up this was was so that Happ and Stroman (along with Sanchez) would face off against Boston in the next series, while also hoping to take advantage of a struggling Tigers&#8217; lineup. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2017&amp;month=3&amp;season1=2017&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=15,d" target="_blank">Over the last 30 days</a>, the Tigers as a team are hitting just .257/.314/.408, which is &#8220;bested&#8221; only by the Angels putrid batting line of .241/.296/.375 over the same time period.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Jays, the Tigers as a whole hit much better at home (.275/.346/.469) vs on the road (.234/.309/.381), despite the cavernous nature of Comerica Park. Liriano in particular could have a tough time, as the Tigers&#8217; .790 OPS against lefties is fourth best in the American League and seventh best in baseball.</p>
<p>One player who <em>hasn&#8217;t</em> been doing too much damage for Detroit this season is perennial All-Star and future inner-circle Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera. While a .264/.357/.440 batting line is nothing to sneeze at, it is a far cry from the .324/.406/.574 line he has averaged over the previous five years. Once again though, this is not as good a sign as it may appear for Toronto.</p>
<p><a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241971558/machado-miggy-poised-for-second-half-rebounds/" target="_blank">As Mike Petriello of MLB.com points out</a>, Cabrera has run into some extremely poor luck in the first half of the season and all signs point to his numbers reverting to their normal, terrifying form. He <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=xwoba&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=100#results" target="_blank">ranks eighth in xwOBA</a> (expected wOBA based on batted ball info) and <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=wobadiff&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=100#results" target="_blank">is number one in xwOBA &#8211; wOBA</a>. He&#8217;s also second in all of baseball behind Aaron Judge in hard-hit rate, so the Jays will still have to be very careful with the slugging first baseman. If they aren&#8217;t, those sky high ERA/DRA numbers could get even higher.</p>
<h4>The Jays&#8217; and the Tigers&#8217; Opposing Areas of Underperformance</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In many ways, the Detroit Tigers’ season has been quite similar to that of the Blue Jays. Both are old, slow teams, relying mostly on sheer power to fuel their offense; both have been contenders in recent years; both teams have seen poor performance from key players and a certain amount of bad luck diminish their playoff hopes. The Jays enter this series six games under .500, and the Tigers enter it nine games under. The Jays are eight and a half games back of the division lead, and the Tigers are nine games back. The Jays are coming off back-to-back ALCS appearances, and this is the first time the Tigers have been under .500 at the All-Star break in over a decade. </span></p>
<p>The areas in which these teams have underperformed, however, have been essentially the reverse of each other. The Blue Jays, as we all unfortunately know, have had one of the weakest and worst offenses in baseball by almost any metric. The Tigers offense, though coming in at a pedestrian 15th in baseball with respect to runs scored and team OPS, tore the cover off the ball in the first half. The team posted the highest line drive percentage in baseball, with 22.8 percent of their batted balls going as line drives. A whopping 41.7 percent of their batted balls were hard-hit, 9.3 percent more than the second-ranked team in this category. So while the Tigers offense hasn’t been noticeably valuable &#8211; their offensive performance is hampered, much like the Jays&#8217;, by poor baserunning &#8211; the line-drive and hard-hit numbers suggest that they have still been making contact with the ball like a dangerous offense, and have perhaps been a bit unlucky.</p>
<p>On the pitching side of things, the Jays bullpen has been one of the few pleasant surprises of this season. Per Fangraphs, the Jays bullpen has been the fourth most valuable in baseball and eighth in baseball by WPA. The Tigers bullpen, meanwhile, has been the team’s worst area of performance. Fangraphs has them as the second-least valuable bullpen in baseball, failing even to reach replacement level. The home run ball in particular has burned the Tigers, with their 1.52 home runs per nine innings again being the second worst in baseball. And the Tigers bullpen has given up even more hard contact than its offense has generated &#8211; 42 percent of batted balls against the Tigers bullpen are hit hard.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see how these opposite areas of weakness play out in this series, with both teams needing a series win to give them a bit of hope against hope as they approach the trade deadline.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Rangers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-rangers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:43:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyson Ross]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11945</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Mike Passador, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski Coming in Hot The Blue Jays have done well to climb out of an early hole, but can’t seem to crack .500. They found themselves gifted with four consecutive series against lackluster opponents but have squandered their opportunity thus far, having dropped the first two sets against Oakland [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Mike Passador, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Coming in Hot</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays have done well to climb out of an early hole, but can’t seem to crack .500. They found themselves gifted with four consecutive series against lackluster opponents but have squandered their opportunity thus far, having dropped the first two sets against Oakland and the White Sox. While the Rangers might’ve looked vulnerable this time two weeks ago, they’ll kick things off against the Jays at 34-34 as owners of an 8-3 record over their last 11 games.</p>
<p>Texas has been scorching offensively, averaging 5.8 runs since their short set with the Mets that began on June 6th, thrice hitting double digits. The Rangers have collected 36 extra base hits over that 11 game stretch, with at least one homer in every single contest. They’ve hit 19 dingers in total, with four of them coming from Rougned Odor. The Rangers are heating up with the weather and it could portend trouble if the Jays’ starters are even slightly off.</p>
<p>Toronto will trot out the typically-excellent Marco Estrada tomorrow night but he’s been struggling as of late, pitching to a 12.08 ERA while giving up four home runs over his past three starts. Estrada has had his share of memorable outings against Texas but it’s most certainly a case of poor timing as they come in on a home run binge. Marcus Stroman will close the series and is coming off a disappointing outing in which he gave up three long balls to the White Sox, though that seems far more a blip on the radar than anything else.</p>
<p>Of course, all that power comes at a cost. The Rangers rank 25th in MLB in terms of both total strikeouts and strikeout rate, with 612 K’s accounting for 24.3% of their plate appearances. For reference, the Jays are 20th and 17th respectively with 525 strikeouts and a strikeout rate of 20.9%. It’s been even higher over the past two weeks as the Rangers are the worst in the league with a K rate of 27.3%. Texas isn’t even swinging wildly &#8211; their problem is actually connecting with the ball. The Rangers are dead last in contact percentage over the last two weeks and just 29th over the whole season, so they’re prone to whiffs. While strikeouts are always nice, it’s hard to imagine a better time for Estrada, Stroman, Francisco Liriano and Joe Biagini to bring their best swing-and-miss stuff to Arlington.</p>
<h3><strong>T</strong><strong>he Return of Tyson Ross</strong></h3>
<p>The Blue Jays return to Texas this week to face a Rangers team that is currently dealing with some major injuries to their rotation. Cole Hamels will be making his final rehab start this week recovering from an oblique injury, Andrew Cashner was just placed on the disabled list with an injured oblique of his own, and A.J. Griffin is still healing from an intercostal strain suffered during the Rangers’ trip to Toronto. Looking to fill some holes in their rotation, Texas is turning to a pitcher who is no stranger to the disabled list himself &#8211; former Padres ace Tyson Ross.</p>
<p>Ross was signed to an incentive-laden $6 million contract this offseason after pitching only 5 1/3 innings with the Padres in 2016. Before his shoulder troubles last year, the right-hander was putting up dominant numbers with San Diego, recording an ERA of 3.07 over 516.2 innings pitched from 2013 through 2015. After missing 2016, Ross underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October. He made his first start of the season on Friday against the Mariners, where he went 5.2 innings, giving up two runs while striking out five and walking three.</p>
<p>It would be unwise to read too deeply into his stats from one start, but it is noteworthy that his fastball velocity against the Mariners sat at 89.5 mph, down significantly from his career average of 93.1 mph. If this trend continues, the former high-strikeout pitcher may have trouble getting balls past the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Furthermore, Ross has now moved from the spacious Petco Park to the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park, which could inhibit his once-stellar ability to limit homers. There are many question marks surrounding Tyson Ross going into his start against the Blue Jays, meaning it will be worthwhile keeping an eye on how he performs.</p>
<h3>No More Dyson Sucking the Place Up</h3>
<p>Last year’s Rangers closer, and the anti-hero of the 2015 ALCS, Sam Dyson, has packed his bags and headed for San Francisco. It’s a shame, really, since just about every opponent he faced this year in the AL pounded his pitches relentlessly. Dyson’s ERA of 10.80 and WHIP of 2.5 were numbers you could really sink your teeth into. Time to meet (or get reacquainted with) the new closer on the lock: Matt Bush.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Yes, the Rangers replaced the man who blamed his failure in the playoffs on a bat flip with the guy who threw a baseball at Jose Bautista seven months later to prove that… I don’t know. I’m not thinking Matt Bush proved anything by drilling Jose with a pitch, other than the fact that a pitcher can </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-rangers-blue-jays-brawl-odor-bautista-matt-bush-20160517-story.html"><span style="font-weight: 400">get away with doing</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that and not get suspended.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Come the ninth inning, if the Rangers have a slim lead, the Blue Jays will be facing living proof that you can be a horrible person and still keep an MLB job. All you have to do is throw 100mph. Bush was arrested in 2004, 2009, and 2012. In that time he was cast off by the Padres, Blue Jays (!) and Tampa Bay Rays (who had <a href="https://thenervousbreakdown.com/cpowell/2011/04/the-josh-lueke-rape-the-moral-placebo-and-the-sad-seattle-sports-scene/" target="_blank">rapist Josh Lueke</a> on their roster when he was useful to them). In 2012 Bush </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Bush_(baseball)#Criminality_and_incarceration"><span style="font-weight: 400">finally did jail time</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> for one of his DUI/assault related incidents, sentenced to 51 months in prison. He was released in 2015, and having “paid his debt to society” was again available as a free agent. And of course, since he was still throwing a baseball as hard as ever, an MLB team eventually gave him a contract.</span></p>
<p>He has the right to work, and baseball is as far as I can see the only employment Matt Bush has ever had, so it makes sense for him to make as much out of it as he can. He regularly tops out over 100mph with his fastball, and even in a mix of hard throwing modern pitchers, that&#8217;s hard to find. Even his relatively low mileage arm won’t last forever. Still, if I were a Rangers fan, I’d be embarrassed to cheer for Matt Bush in a late and close situation. But cheer they will. Since taking the reins of the ninth inning this year, Bush has 11 strikeouts and four walks in 13 innings with only one blown save and having taken one loss.  He has also allowed three home runs. Opponents are hitting .269/.321/.481 off of him as a group, which is really not that great. Contrast that with Roberto Osuna’s .196/.210/.299 line if you’re wondering what an elite closer looks like.</p>
<p>So, bad news, Matt “F@#$ing” Bush is closing games for the Rangers. Good news, the Jays might just make him look like Sam Dyson if they get the chance.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch For Against the Yankees</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/01/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jun 2017 14:54:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Matt Gwin, Rachael McDaniel, and Joshua Howsam Attack of the Yankees Young-ins The Yankees have the second best record in the American League. At an active roster age of 28.1 years, they&#8217;re also quite young. If it were any other team, that’d be a nice feat, but for the ‘aging’ Yankees, it’s seems [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i>Written by Matt Gwin, Rachael McDaniel, and Joshua Howsam</i></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Attack of the Yankees Young-ins</h3>
<p>The Yankees have the second best record in the American League. At an active roster age of 28.1 years, they&#8217;re also quite young.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Rplot01.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11310" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Rplot01.jpg" alt="Rplot01" width="500" height="367" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If it were any other team, that’d be a nice feat, but for the ‘aging’ Yankees, it’s </span><em><span style="font-weight: 400">seems</span> </em><span style="font-weight: 400">like a miracle. Seem is the operative word here, however, as the Yankees have actually been de-aging since their most recent peak average age of 31.8 in 2013. However, there’s a reason that we’ve been trained to think of this team as being old. Not since 1992 have the Yankees finished the season with an average age under 29 years. Ergo, the last time that the Yankees were as young of a team as they are right now, Roberto Osuna hadn’t even been conceived.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">New York took an interesting path to get to this point, as well. Unlike the Astros and Cubs of this world, the Yankees never opted for an everything must go fire sale. Instead, a bout of patience, timely trades, and player development have gotten them to their current point.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In this series, the Blue Jays will be facing New York’s youngest player in 23-year-old starter Luis Severino as well as their third youngest player in 24-year-old starter Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees’ starters will be caught by 24-year-old catcher Gary Sanchez and their lineup will be anchored by 25-year-old outfielder and offensive world beater Aaron Judge. Judge has been so good to start this season that with Angels’ youthful phenom Mike Trout injured, some think Aaron could win the </span><a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-real-shot-al-mvp-mike-trout-article-1.3206607"><span style="font-weight: 400">AL MVP Award</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This isn’t all to say that the Yankees are devoid of veterans, however, as New York’s first starter will be their second oldest player: 36-year-old C.C. Sabathia. But it does mark quite a stark contrast with a truly aging Toronto team that has refused to adjust and retool. Players like Marcus Stroman, Devon Travis, and Kevin Pillar, who we generally think of as being on the younger side of the team, are all well older than the four key Yankees players mentioned above. In fact, in terms of the Blue Jays core players, only Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna are under the age of 26. Let&#8217;s just hope this team of aging stars can outdo the Yankees&#8217; young-ins.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>CC Sabathia Is Commanding His Cutter Again</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’re only two months into the 2017 baseball season, but for C.C. Sabathia, this year has already been quite the roller coaster ride. After beginning the year with three consecutive quality starts, allowing only three earned runs over 18.1 innings pitched, Sabathia followed this up with four consecutive starts allowing four or more earned runs. The Yankees managed to win two of these games thanks to their offense, but concerns about Sabathia’s longevity in the Yankees rotation began to be bandied about in earnest.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Over his last three starts, though, Sabathia has done much to quiet such concerns, seemingly having reverted to the fine form he showed in his first three starts. Since his 5-3 loss against the Reds on May 9th, he has once again allowed only three earned runs over 18 innings pitched, most recently striking out nine batters over 6.1 innings in a 3-2 win over the A’s.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What was going wrong for Sabathia during his rough stretch, and what has he done to turn it around, at least for now? Sabathia himself imputes his recent success not to any mechanical changes, but rather to increased focus on locating his cutter.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sabathia described his use of the cutter over his four bad starts as “<a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cc-sabathia-has-third-straight-solid-start-1.13674292" target="_blank">a little bit lazy</a>” &#8211; instead of riding in on the hands of right-handed hitters, his cutters would stay over the plate, making them an eminently hittable pitch. Here’s where Sabathia’s cutters ended up during his four bad starts.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/bad-sabathia.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11312" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/bad-sabathia.png" alt="bad sabathia" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Almost half of the 67 cutters Sabathia threw to right-handed batters over this period ended up in the strike zone. As a result, right-handed batters hit .407 and slugged .741 against this pitch.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Compare that to where Sabathia’s cutters have been located over his past three quality starts: </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/good-sabathia.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11313" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/good-sabathia.png" alt="good sabathia" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Instead of staying on the inner half of the strike zone, Sabathia’s cutters have tended to run inside on right-handed hitters, to great success. Right-handed hitters’ batting average against the cutter over Sabathia’s past three games has dropped all the way down to .174, and Sabathia has generated nine strikeouts with the pitch &#8211; as opposed to three strikeouts over his four bad starts.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sabathia has consistently thrown the cutter around 30 percent of the time this season. With the Jays’ lineup heavy with right-handed hitters, Sabathia will likely continue to use it frequently in his Thursday start against the Jays &#8211; and while the Jays scored six runs off Sabathia last time they faced him, that start was in the midst of Sabathia’s period of struggle commanding the cutter. (And the Jays lost that game anyway.) The Jays’ success, or lack thereof, in the series opener should have a lot to do with Sabathia’s command of this pitch against the Jays’ right-handed power. </span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Those Tired Arms</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; recent string of wins has fans all excited about the prospects of this club, especially with Liriano rejoining the club this weekend, but they have come with something of a price. Of the Blue Jays&#8217; eight wins (in their last nine games), only two game with a margin of greater than two runs runs. That has meant an awful lot of work for the quintet of Roberto Osuna, Joe Smith, Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup. That group has thrown 22 innings across that stretch in 24 appearances.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not all that hard to see why John Gibbons has relied so heavily on those five arms, as while Joe Smith and Roberto Osuna have ERAs slightly above 3.00, the case could easily be made that those two have been the two best options. Osuna has been dynamite since <a title="Roberto Osuna is Back to Doing What He Does Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/12/roberto-osuna-back-to-doing-what-he-does-best/" target="_blank">junking to his twoseam fastball</a>, and Joe Smith has 39 strikeouts in just 25 2/3 innings. Those two lock down the eighth and ninth, and the three-headed trio of Barnes, Loup, and Tepera are handling the middle innings (with a combined ERA of 2.65) with ease.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t really anything new during this winning streak either, as the Blue Jays relief corps leads the AL in innings pitched out of the bullpen (193), despite the second place Mariners (191) having played three extra games. They also lead in innings per game (3.8) and total reliever outings (a whopping 188, which is 12 ahead of the second place Mariners). That means that not only are Jays relievers tossing a bunch of innings as a unit, they&#8217;re using so many different pitchers that nobody is really getting much rest. This is a far cry from last year when the Blue Jays led baseball in innings pitched from their <em>starters</em>. Obviously a big part of this has been the injuries to 3/5 of the rotation, combined with ineffectiveness from the fill-ins, but it is clearly an area of concern.</p>
<p>There is some potential good news on the horizon, however. Not only will the returns of Liriano and Happ and the continued build of Joe Biagini hopefully provide more innings from the rotation, but the Jays are starting to see a couple of out of favour relievers round into form.</p>
<p>Jason Grilli probably would have been on the DFA bubble if not for the injuries. To say his early season numbers were bad would be an understatement. But things have looked much better of late for the veteran righty; he hasn&#8217;t walked a batter in his last nine outings, eight of which have been scoreless. J.P. Howell isn&#8217;t quite there yet, but he has put up three scoreless outing in a row, despite pitching full innings (and four outs in one of them) instead of the one or two batter bursts that he was expected to be throwing when signed.</p>
<p>With Osuna, Smith, and Loup likely unavailable for the opener, combined with the potent Yankees offense (second in the AL in runs) potentially knocking a starter or two out early during the series, the Blue Jays are really going to need that secondary set of relievers to perform. If that doesn&#8217;t happen, some of these games could get out hand in a hurry.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Upcoming Blue Jays Series Vs the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-upcoming-blue-jays-series-vs-the-orioles/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 19 May 2017 14:05:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador</em></p>
<h4>An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it came against the Atlanta Braves, a team who is currently in a rebuilding phase. The Orioles can sympathize with this frustration, given that they have now lost six of their last seven, including a sweep last weekend at the hands of the runt of the AL litter, the Kansas City Royals.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Baltimore’s struggles over the past week cannot be attributed to the whole club. The hitters have continued to perform in typical Oriole fashion, slashing .284/.376/.504 during the stretch. The reason for the team’s struggles falls squarely in the hands of the pitching – specifically the rotation, who have pitched to a 7.01 ERA over their cold stretch. The Orioles starters this weekend will be Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Wade Miley, with Gausman and Miley having been two of the main perpetrators of the rotation’s lousy performance.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This lack of success for the Orioles’ pitching staff has led to the getting knocked out of games early. Over their 1-6 stretch, Orioles starters have averaged only five innings per start. This has required the Orioles bullpen to eat a lot innings over the last week, a bullpen that is already dealing with the loss of Zach Britton to a forearm strain.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Toronto has an opportunity to add on to Baltimore’s pitching woes this weekend. While normally the thought of Baltimore going to their bullpen is a scary one, the absence of Zach Britton combined with their recent increased workload are good omens for a Toronto team who has hit nearly as well as the Orioles (.271/.341/.489) over the last week. If the Blue Jays can continue the trend and get to Baltimore’s starters early, there could be some mashing happening in Baltimore.</span></p>
<h4>Players That Will Coming Back from Injury&#8230;Maybe<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays miraculously thumped Atlanta Thursday night with just three Opening Day starters in the lineup. Recent callup Darrell Ceciliani batted cleanup and April-signee Chris Coghlan hit fifth. The team’s second backup catcher of the year hit eighth. And because nothing good can ever last, Ceciliani partially dislocated his shoulder while socking a dinger. So although the team will be shorthanded for Friday’s opening tilt with him out and Kevin Pillar suspended, some help appears to be on the way.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Earlier this week John Gibbons got everyone fired up when he speculated that Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki could return around the team’s trip to Atlanta </span><a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-pushing-back-troy-tulowitzkis-return-lineup/"><span style="font-weight: 400">but had to walk back those comments after he “jumped the gun” on their respective recoveries</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. Given the state of the lineup, it’s hard to blame him.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While Donaldson won’t be back this weekend, it looks like Tulowitzki could make an appearance at Camden Yards. Rainy conditions pushed back the start of his rehab stint on Saturday, and with Dunedin off Sunday it meant that Tulowitzki didn’t return to action until Monday. He went 1-for-3 in that game and played shortstop before going 0-for-2 with a walk as the DH on Tuesday. He got a day off on Wednesday and went 1-for-3 last night while playing the field, furthering speculation that he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He could be in line for one or two more rehab games but could just as easily return to the big club for the series opener. Either way, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a regular face back at shortstop in Baltimore.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Elsewhere, Russell Martin went on the 10-day DL on May 8th with a left shoulder problem. While he didn’t come off the DL when first eligible on Thursday, he was able to catch side sessions from Aaron Sanchez and Francisco Liriano on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. With him unlikely to need a rehab assignment, Martin’s return could come sooner rather than later.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Beyond the obvious benefits of having really good baseball players available, this should ease some of the burden on Toronto’s thin bench. They had been rolling with nine relievers and just two bench bats until Pillar’s suspension spurred an 8-3 split, so a return to health would give the team much more flexibility in terms of late game substitutions. Exactly who sees the door is yet to be determined, but beyond Mike Ohlman and Dwight Smith the team’s affinity for collecting middle-infield types points to a pitcher drawing the short straw.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Regardless, the Blue Jays are mercifully inching their way back to full health.</span></p>
<h4>Lefty Power Will Thrive in Baltimore<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p>When people usually think of left handers hitting home runs in the American league, they think of Yankee Stadium and the infamous short porch. However, Camden Yards is surprisingly lefty power heavy. Per FanGraphs’ park factors, left handed hitters at both Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards have a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&amp;season=2015&amp;teamid=0&amp;sort=8,d">15% higher chance of hitting a homerun than they would at a neutral stadium</a>. When you look at the an overlay of the park, it really makes sense.<strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11024 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium-300x295.jpg" alt="Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>Image via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php">ESPN Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>At Camden Yards the right field corner is 318 feet from home plate, compared to 314 to the short porch at Yankee Stadium.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays don’t have any truly powerful left handed hitters, they do of course have two powerful switch hitters in Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Fortunately, both Smoak and Morales have shown quite a bit more power from the left side. In his career, Smoak has hit home runs in 4 percent of his plate appearance from the left side compared to 3.3 percent from the right side. Morales’ difference is even more pronounced with home runs in 4.4 percent of his plate appearances from the left and 3.1 percent as a right hander.</p>
<p>On top of all that, the Blue Jays will be facing three right handed starters this weekend in Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez. For a Toronto team that, as mentioned above, will still be missing its big guns on Friday, they’ll need to take advantage of any edge that they can get.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Not Those Guys Again: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/12/not-those-guys-again-rays-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Sep 2016 14:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays September 12 &#8211; 14 Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12th of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 12 &#8211; 14</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<p>The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12<sup>th</sup> of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the doormat of the AL East, if only because the other teams are so unexpectedly good. The Jays only salvaged one win at the end of the series they played at the Trop, and without a series win against the Rays at home, the conversation about the Jays playoff chances will start to shift from “division winner” to “which wild card slot can they try to hang on to.”</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, September 12th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Francisco Liriano vs. Jake Odorizzi</strong></p>
<p>The last start that Liriano made against the Twins was a perfect example of &#8220;Bad Liriano.&#8221; Despite giving up just two hits, he walked four and exited after five innings having allowed four runs. His two appearances out of the bullpen are blemished only by a cheap home run that scraped over that low part of the wall in the Trop where Evan Longoria hit his famous walk-off dinger to send the Rays to the playoffs in 2011.</p>
<p>One interesting thing to watch for is whether Liriano sticks with his trademarked strategy of avoiding the zone like hot lava. The Rays have one of the higher chase rates in the league, but if his slider isn&#8217;t on we&#8217;re going to see a ton of walks instead of whiffs out of the zone. Another thing to note is that the Rays have four lefty bats in their regular lineup. Given how well Logan Morrison has been hitting lately, we could see Mikie Mahtook start in the outfield in place of Corey Dickerson against Liriano.</p>
<p>After weathering a mid-season slump, Odorizzi put together a sparkling August, going 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 31 K over 36.1 IP. Then Baltimore welcomed him to the month of September by tagging him for seven runs over four innings. He looked very hittable in his last start against Toronto in early August, but overall the Jays&#8217; bats have been handcuffed by Odorizzi, striking out 22 times and managing to score just nine runs over 23 IP. Odorizzi&#8217;s successes and failures this season have coincided with his walk rate, so the Jays need to get back to their patient ways and take advantage of his 43.3 Zone%.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, September 13th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Drew Smyly</strong></p>
<p>Stroman has taken some hard-luck losses recently, with the Jays offence going ice-cold when he takes the mound. Recently he&#8217;s struggled with efficiency, suddenly losing command of his fastball mid-inning and needing 20 or 30 pitches to get three outs. That&#8217;s not how a ground ball pitcher should be operating, and the Jays need him to conserve his pitch count to get deep into games. One thing to watch against the Rays is how Stroman&#8217;s slider fares. Tampa Bay&#8217;s hitters have the second-highest ISO against sliders in the league (.194), but also strikeout on the pitch at a 34.6 percent clip. It&#8217;ll be boom or bust for Stroman in Tampa Bay.</p>
<p>This is the most intriguing matchup of the series, as both Stroman and Smyly have the potential to either rack up a ton of strikeouts or give up a ton of home runs. Or both. Smyly has thrown more innings against Toronto than any other team this season, and it&#8217;s been up and down. An encouraging sign for the Jays is that Smyly&#8217;s velocity has been trending down all season long, with his slider in particular losing approximately 4 MPH since April.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, September 14th – 12:37 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Alex Cobb</strong></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t step on a crack or you&#8217;ll break your Marco&#8217;s back. The Jays&#8217; quality start machine has maintained that his back is not the issue, but just looking at his delivery you can tell there&#8217;s some discomfort. Over his last five starts he has posted a 7.71 ERA while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings and going more than six innings just once. His 2.18 ERA vs. Tampa Bay over nine games is the best of any current Jays starter, and although he was touched up for five runs in his last turn against them, it was on only seven hits. In fact, his BABIP over this horrible five start stretch is an astronomical .347, which suggests he&#8217;s due for some reverse in luck.</p>
<p>Cobb flummoxed the Jays in his first start back from the DL on Sep. 2, striking out seven and generating pathetically weak contact. He looked a little more mortal in his last start against the Yankees &#8211; surrendering two homers &#8211; but the Jays will need to go into this game with a smarter plan against Cobb. He&#8217;s essentially a fastball-changeup guy (though he does have a wicked curveball that he&#8217;ll throw every now and then), and the Jays have far and away the highest walk rate against changeups this season (8.8 percent). It&#8217;s obviously not as simple as that, but hopefully the fact that most of the lineup has seen Cobb&#8217;s stuff before will help.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The expanded roster for Tampa Bay includes the addition of Eddie Gamboa, Curt Casali, Ryan Garton, Justin Marks, Mikie Mahtook, Steve Geltz, Richie Shaffer, Chase Whitely, and the signing of Alexi Ramirez. Are any of these guys hot prospects on their way up? How about Richie Schaffer, who is 24 years old was the 25th overall pick in 2012? He plays the corner infield positions, but barring a Longoria injury, I can guess we might see him at first base or DH only.</p>
<p>We already covered the additions for the Blue Jays a week ago, but a friendly reminder that the precense of base stealing specialist Dalton Pompey and a third catcher available in Dioner Navarro or Josh Thole give John Gibbons a lot more flexibility on offense. The bullpen, too, is full of options, just not any remarkably good ones.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>What about the Defense?</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays have been unexpectedly bad on defense over the last stretch off bad games. The errors don&#8217;t really tell the story, as catchable balls in the outfield have sailed over fielder&#8217;s heads or fallen in front, and infield positioning has lead to several booted balls that didn&#8217;t get converted into outs. A lot of these miscues don&#8217;t show up in the scorebook, but handing the runner two bases on a missed pickoff turns into a very good run scoring opportunity for the opponent. It&#8217;s hardly the only area the Jays have struggled, but if they start kicking the ball around against the Rays, the losses will likely just keep coming.</p>
<h4>Travis on Top of His Game</h4>
<p>As of this writing, Devon Travis is on a seven game hit streak, 15 for 35, for a .428 batting average. In fact, since his first multi hit game this year, back on June 13th (we&#8217;ll make this the arbitrary end of his &#8220;Spring Training&#8221; as he was rushed back from rehab) he&#8217;s been marvelous. He&#8217;s hit .337/.366/.519 for an .884 OPS. His tAV is a tidy .283. If he continues to be this tough to defend against, he&#8217;s the perfect leadoff hitter for the Jays in September.</p>
<p><strong>The Bullpen Battle</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays, of late, have been up against many situations where a late comeback would have been truly excellent. In the sweep of Minnesota, all of the games seemed like they hinged on the ineptness of the Twins bullpen. The potential good news is that while the Rays starters have a 4.16 DRA (11th best in baseball), their bullpen comes out at 4.61, 26th worst in baseball. The Jays rate a 17th (4.38) for their starters, and respectable 13th (4.06) for their relievers. So, unlike facing, say, New York and Cleveland, all is not lost when facing a deficit late in the game.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Forsythe &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Kiermaier &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Evan Longoria &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Brad Miller &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Morrison &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Nick Franklin &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Steven Souza &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr. &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Corey Dickerson &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Bobby Wilson &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Dropping two of three from the Sox put the Jays in a tie for the wild card with Baltimore, while Tampa did Toronto a favour by keeping the Yankees at bay for another game. Maybe Tampa can do another favour by being jet-lagged for three days upon arriving in the T-dot. What does it all mean? By no means is this the end of the season, but Boston&#8217;s offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Toronto&#8217;s is not. They&#8217;re certainly not hitting enough to overcome a pitching staff that is letting a half a dozen runs in every other night (which is a thing that is actually happening.) Some part of the Jays game needs to get locked back in, and the rest needs to follow along very quickly. This is the get it done league, as we have been told, and against a last place team in the middle of September, there&#8217;s no alternative.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>It Can&#8217;t Be Any Crazier: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/16/it-cant-be-any-crazier-rays-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2016 13:47:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2677</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 &#8211; May 18 Written by Tammy Rainey and Michael Bradburn In recent history, no team has a more well earned reputation for being a thorn in the Blue Jays&#8217; side than the Tampa Bay Rays. It has been 10 years since the Toronto club dominated the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">May 16 &#8211; May 18</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/tammyrainey/" target="_blank">Tammy Rainey</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mbradburn/" target="_blank">Michael Bradburn</a></em></p>
<p>In recent history, no team has a more well earned reputation for being a thorn in the Blue Jays&#8217; side than the Tampa Bay Rays. It has been 10 years since the Toronto club dominated the season series and only once in the last nine (2014) have they edged above .500. The caveat to this, of course, is that this record of failure is driven largely by doing really poorly in Tampa. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, this one is at home. The last time Tampa came here, the series ended with a walk-off home run from Josh Donaldson in the final regular season home game of the 2015 season.</p>
<p>This series will be watched all the more closely to see how the Blue Jays react to the insanity of yesterday&#8217;s 8th inning in Texas. In the past such events have served as motivational sparks to ignite an under preforming team (or at least that&#8217;s the perception). While the Blue Jays have played somewhat better of late, they still stand in need of an extended run of well above-average play.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, May 16th &#8211; 7:07pm ET</h4>
<p><strong>LHP Drew Smyly vs. LHP J.A. Happ</strong></p>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24090">Happ had his best outing since rejoining the Blue Jays last time out, and arguably the best outing since his fortuitous trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates last year. The lefty was one out away from a complete game shutout against the San Francisco Giants. Happ has three shutouts on his resume already, but none since 2010 when he went one over the minimum against the St. Louis Cardinals as a member of the Houston Astros. Despite the 5-0 start, Happ ranks fourth among Blue Jays starters by WARP. Mustering a FIP of 3.83 and a DRA of 4.37, Happ&#8217;s ERA has out-performed both at 2.05. Whether that level of prowess can be sustained is debatable, however, Happ&#8217;s 8.9 percent whiff rate has been better than rotation-mates Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.</div>
<div></div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24103">On the opposing side of the mound, the Rays will counter with a tough lefty of their own in Smyly. While the Blue Jays feature a lineup predominantly made up of right-handers, Smyly will not be an easy opponent to crack. Smyly currently ranks fifth in the American League in WARP with a 2.67 mark in spite of a 1-4 start. As we know, wins are an awful way in general to evaluate a pitcher, and Smyly has shown an increased strikeout rate of 30.1 percent, combined with a decreased walk rate of 4.6 percent &#8211; the highest and lowest of his career respectively. The nearly-27 year old seems to have turned a corner and could further increase his value if he can do a better job keeping the ball in the yard.</div>
<h4>Tuesday, May 17th &#8211; 7:07pm ET</h4>
<p><strong>RHP Chris Archer vs. RHP Marcus Stroman</strong></p>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24133">A rematch of Opening Day, the Blue Jays will look for a near-exact repeat. By WARP, Stroman has been the Blue Jays&#8217; second-best starter so far this season, managing a 4.25 DRA, 3.33 FIP, and 3.54 ERA. Against the Rays specifically this season, Stroman has shone his brightest. Over his two starts, Stroman has allowed four runs on nine hits, three walks and struck out 14 batters over 16 innings. He has faced 13 over the minimum in those two starts combined. Touting the best groundball rate in the entire major leagues at 62.3 percent, the Rays may face an uphill battle against the recent graduate.</div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24151"></div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24145">Archer still hasn&#8217;t looked like himself yet this season. The Rays ace is one season removed from finishing sixth in WARP among all major league pitchers. This season, he currently ranks 29th, sandwiched between Jon Gray &#8211; who has only made five starts &#8211; and Taijuan Walker. It&#8217;s not as though Archer is getting fewer swinging strikes though &#8211; his whiff rate has dropped barely a percentage point and a half. Instead, it appears first-pitch strikes seem to be ailing the budding superstar. Archer is starting plate appearances at 0-1 only 52.6 percent of the time this season, which ranks fourth-worst among qualified starters and 12 percentage points worse than last year&#8217;s mark. To compound matters further, on 1-0 counts, opposing hitters are slashing .297/.435/.514 against the Tampa ace. To put that into context, that&#8217;s roughly the production lines of Travis Shaw, Yoenis Cespedes, and Mark Trumbo so far this season.</div>
<h4>Wednesday, May 18th &#8211; 7:07pm ET</h4>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24180"><strong>RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. RHP R.A. Dickey</strong></div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24181"></div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24186">The 41-year old knuckleballer has started eight games so far this season, and has four quality starts. It&#8217;s not great overall, but Dickey has now reached a streak of three straight quality starts. Over that same stretch, he is 1-1. Dickey&#8217;s percentage of pitches finishing in the strike zone seemed to be trending upward, however, in his last appearance &#8211; easily his best of the season &#8211; 48.7 percent of pitches made it into the zone. That&#8217;s down from 59.8 and 58.2 percent from the two games previous. Dickey seems to be at his best when walks are limited, so keeping the knuckleball in the zone seems advantageous. While I don&#8217;t typically believe in monthly splits. Dickey tests my belief in many things. His April numbers are quite a bit worse than his May numbers, and in June he has historically gotten even better. We&#8217;ll leave it there.</div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24187"></div>
<div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1463338393749_24188">The Rays will counter with the 26-year old Odorizzi. Since coming over in the Wade Davis trade &#8211; heretofore known as the Will Myers trade &#8211; Odorizzi has been a bit of a curious case. Though he was definitely trending upward with a 3.16 DRA in 2014 and a 2.70 DRA in 2015, he has only managed a DRA of 3.99 so far this season. Furthermore, his strikeout rate has trended in the wrong direction that entire time as well. In 2016, opponents seem to be getting more hard contact off of him than his career norms suggest, and he&#8217;s giving up the most home runs of his career. While pitch selection seems to have changed slightly from last season, Odorizzi hasn&#8217;t lost any velocity or movement. But, for some reason, his fastball is leaving the yard more often now at a rate of one homer per 113 pitches. While that may not seem like a lot, last season, batters homered on one out of every 251 fastballs from Odorizzi. Perhaps the Blue Jays will get in on this as well.</div>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Toronto continues to have a bullpen in flux when it comes to southpaw relievers. Brett Cecil hit the DL after Saturday&#8217;s appearance and while he hasn&#8217;t really been <em>Brett Cecil</em>, it&#8217;s a serious inconvenience to be reduced to just one LH reliever &#8211; a rookie with six major league innings. In his place the team selected the contract of Dustin Antolin, to which most of social media responded &#8220;Who?&#8221;</p>
<p>Antolin is, in fact, the second longest serving player in the Toronto organization behind only&#8230;Brett Cecil. They are the last two remaining players drafted by the JP Ricciardi regime. The 26 year old native of Hawaii, drafted in the 9th round in 2008,  had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and he took a little while to regain the strike zone consistently. He was beginning to get noticed again in the first half of 2013 but a mid-May promotion to AA went sideways when he lost his command of the strike zone (five three-walk relief outings). That proved to be an outlier, as he brought his BB/9 rate down to 3.16 in 2014 (to go with a 10.96 K/9). He almost quit baseball last winter when he hit the minor league free agent market this past offseason and lingered into the new year unsigned.  Maybe he was discouraged because after that fine 2014 season the Blue Jays made him repeat AA. Whatever the case, he&#8217;s in the majors now and maybe he&#8217;ll get a chance to test his stuff against Tampa Bay.</p>
<p>In the visitor lineup the name you won&#8217;t see is Logan Forsythe. The Rays best hitter was hit in the left shoulder blade by a Felix Hernandez pitch on Monday and suffered a hairline fracture. He&#8217;ll be out a few weeks. Most of the playing time in his absence has been going to former top prospect Tim Beckham. Another familiar name that will be missing is that of one time Blue Jays prospect (drafted one round before Antolin, in fact) Danny Farquhar who has been shuttled back and forth to AAA this season and is currently off the Tampa roster.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>The Inherited Runners<br />
</strong></p>
<p>The Toronto bullpen seemed to be moving past their former issue with inherited runners until Jesse Chavez failed to hold a lead for Aaron Sanchez on Sunday. It might be time to increase the responsibility of Joe Biagini, as he seems to be the only reliable reliever outside of the current setup/closer duo of Gavin Floyd and Roberto Osuna. With the team hamstrung by the lack of LH options, the fans will surely be tugging their collars if any starter leaves the game with runners on.</p>
<p><strong>The Surprising Hot Bats<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Justin Smoak, owner of a six game hit streak and ten game on base streak, along with Michael Saunders who has showing no signs of slowing, have been carrying the Jays slowly recovering offense while Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson have been mired in deep slumps. Troy Tulowitzki also has begun showing signs of life with eight hits in his last five games, including three home runs. The mini hot streak has finally pushed his season batting average up to .200.</p>
<p><strong>Brandon Guyer</strong></p>
<p>With the recent injury to Logan Forsythe, Brandon Guyer has taken over the top spot in the lineup. In addition to being a consistent pest to the Blue Jays, Guyer has this year taken to hurting the rest of the league (and himself) as well. The league leader in hit by pitches at 12 hit two home runs yesterday and has risen his overall batting line to .338/.488/.577. He&#8217;s going to be a key out for this team, as the rest of the Tampa offense leaves much to be desired.</p>
<p><strong>The Impending Edicts<br />
</strong></p>
<p>MLB will likely waste no time handing down punishment for the Texas fiasco. It&#8217;s fairly likely that all Jays suspensions will initially be appealed in order to give the team maneuverability with when they are served (you cannot recall a minor leaguer to fill in during a suspension), so these announcements may not impact the Tampa series. Look for someone to serve if they are hit with a one game ban, but anything more than that will likely be drawn out.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<div class="previewr-wrapper expanded"></div>
<div class="t pg-1m0 pg-1x1 pg-1h2 pg-1y1 pg-1ff1 pg-1fs0 pg-1fc0 pg-1sc0 pg-1ls0 pg-1ws0"></div>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Away Team</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Home Team</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Brandon Guyer &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Brad Miller &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Josh Donaldson – 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Evan Longoria &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Corey Dickerson &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Steven Souza &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Justin Smoak – 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Logan Morrison &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Troy Tulowitzki -SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Tim Beckham/Steve Pearce &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Kevin Kiermaier &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Curt Casali / Hank Conger &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Ryan Goins – 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Over the last 1/10th of the current season, since the horrible White Sox series, the Blue Jays are 9-7. This is possibly a sign things are beginning to turn, but the next 10 games represent an opportunity to regain some of their lost swagger and the team would be well served to seize the moment.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Trop is Calling: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/the-trop-is-calling-rays-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/the-trop-is-calling-rays-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:39:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2090</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Friday, April 29th &#8211; Sunday, May 1st After a disappointing end to a home stand that saw the Blue Jays (10-13) swept at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, the team hits the road momentarily this weekend to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Friday, April 29th &#8211; Sunday, May 1st</h3>
<p>After a disappointing end to a home stand that saw the Blue Jays (10-13) swept at the hands of the Chicago White Sox, the team hits the road momentarily this weekend to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays and Blue Jays last met during opening week, where the teams split a four game series that is likely remembered as one of the first game deciding applications of the Utley Rule. While the Jays appeared to be moments away from tying and breaking open a decisive third game, an interference call against Jose Bautista ended up sealing the win for the Rays and giving them the  daylight  needed to fight back to tie the series. The Jays look to get back on track in Florida before starting another home stand on Monday against the Texas Rangers.</p>
<p>The Rays (10-11) meanwhile, are coming off a midweek series that saw the team take two of three from the division leading Orioles, although it&#8217;s almost too early even say division leading without using air quotes. So far this season, it&#8217;s been the same old Rays, as the team is fifth in baseball with a team ERA of 3.20, despite an offense that is currently middle of the pack (16th in OPS).</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups</h3>
<h4>Friday, April 29th – First Pitch 7:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Drew Smyly</strong></p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez opens the series in Tampa on the mound for the Blue Jays looking to rebound from his worst start of the 2016 season. Despite struggling against the A’s last weekend, Sanchez’s move to the rotation has been largely positive; he has posted a 3.33 ERA in his first four turns through the rotation. Sanchez’s performance last weekend against Oakland has been the only start in which the right-hander failed to pitch at least six innings or allow more than one earned run, so it seems like the outlier. Despite his success, when Sanchez has struggled this season, it has often come against left-handed batters, posting a .250/.344/.464 slash line compared to .167/.189/.194 versus right-handed hitters; a continuation of struggles that date well beyond the 24 innings he has thrown in 2016. The Rays will likely start a lineup with 4 lefty hitters against Sanchez this weekend.</p>
<p>The Rays will counter with Drew Smyly in the series opener. Smyly has been the best starting pitcher through the first month of the season for Tampa, posting a 2.51 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 4 starts. Despite missing over half of the 2015 season with a shoulder trouble, Smyly avoided surgery and has looked every bit as good as he did before the injury. Smyly’s worst start of the season came against the Jays during opening week – throwing 6.2 innings and allowing 5 runs on six hits. If the Jays continue to swing and miss at the rate that has plagued them so far this season, Smyly will give them fits.</p>
<h4>Saturday, April 30th – First Pitch 6:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Chris Archer</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ is coming off another strong outing against Oakland, where he allowed three runs in seven innings of work. Like most Blue Jays starters, Happ has pitched well early on this season. Interestingly, Happ has arrived at these results differently than he did last season in Pittsburgh – throwing fewer fastballs than when he was with the Pirates during his second half turnaround last year. <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/">BP’s Joshua Howsam noted</a> that Happ&#8217;s fastballs are sometimes being replaced with additional curveballs; potentially in order take advantage of the Blue Jays’ stellar infield defense. Happ’s pitch mix and his ability to be successful with whichever he chooses provide interesting things to watch for as the season continues.</p>
<p>In what apparently seems to be rule, Chris Archer will be taking the mound against the Blue Jays. Archer, who was the Rays best pitcher for most of 2015, struggled down the stretch and has seen those issues continue into the early part of the 2016 season. He also had an interesting season debut against the Blue Jays, giving up three runs on five hits and three walks in only five innings, but also racking up twelve strikeouts. He has succeeded as a starter with two primary pitches: a fastball and slider. While there has been much made of his early season problems, if Archer is back to being able to command both his fastball and slider, he should be much closer to the 4.9 WARP pitcher we saw last season.</p>
<h4>Sunday, May 1st – First Pitch 1:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Jake Odorizzi</strong></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman takes a 3-0 record to the mound on Sunday in the series finale for the Blue Jays. His ERA of 4.37 is somewhat misleading as the bullpen has been less than kind to Toronto&#8217;s nominal ace &#8211; all seven runners he left on base have come around to score. (and his overall LOB% for the season is 60.1%, which is well below average). Aside from the slightly inflated ERA, Stroman has been Stroman: he is inducing grounders while working quickly and effectively atop the Blue Jays rotation, though is strikeouts <em>are</em> way down. Stroman pitched very effectively against the Rays his first time out, throwing 98 pitchers over 8+ innings, 74 of which were strikes and inducing 14 ground balls. He will look to repeat this performance on Sunday.</p>
<p>Jake Odorizzi counters on Sunday for Tampa Bay, coming off a start in Baltimore that saw him allow one run in five innings of work and uncharacteristically, strike out only one batter. He appears to have been slightly unlucky in the early going, as his FIP is almost a full run lower than his ERA (2.66 to 3.58). After two bad starts (10 ER in 9.1 IP) and one good one (1 ER in 8 IP) against the Jays in 2015, Odorizzi allowed one run on four hits while striking out ten in his opener against the Blue Jays this year. He&#8217;ll throw a lot of offspeed pitches, especially his good changeup, so the Jays will have to wait back and look up the middle if they hope to have any success.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>Is Archer Back?</h4>
<p>Chris Archer made positive strides earlier this week in Baltimore, throwing 6.2 innings without allowing an earned run. Archer’s ERA still sits at 5.47 for the season, highlighting just how much the ace righty has struggled in the early going. If he has indeed shaken off the early season rust and his problems were nothing more than a blip on the radar, it will go a long way in solidifying the Rays’ rotation and making life difficult for the Blue Jays this weekend. It&#8217;s hard to believe that a pitcher as good as Archer will continue to get hit, and he does like pitching against the Blue Jays.</p>
<h4>Change in Approach</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/donaldson-believes-blue-jays-need-evaluate-approach/">made it known</a> that he thinks the Blue Jays’ hitters need to change their approach at the plate, suggesting that fastball dependent pitchers like Jose Quintana should not be able to carve up the Jays’ lineup like he did on Thursday night. This series will be the first indication as to whether or not Blue Jay hitters are taking Donaldson’s advice to heart and attacking fastballs the way he thinks they should.</p>
<h4>Russell Martin</h4>
<p>While the Blue Jays’ offense has teased fans in fits and starts this season, not yet fully running on all cylinders, the offensive performance of Russell Martin remains something to watch as the season moves into May. It is still early, but Martin has posted a strikeout rate of 46% so far this season and this <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/">statistic tends to stabilize</a> after 60 or so plate appearances. Complicating matters is the fact that Martin appears to be dealing with some injury issues that could be affecting his performance, as he sat out earlier this week in order to rest a sore neck. Getting Martin back on track (or potentially healthy) would go a long way in helping a Blue Jays offense that has yet to truly take flight.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>If Russell Martin&#8217;s neck continues to give him problems, expect to see Josh Thole behind the plate filling in. Despite a spirited debate over who would best fill the the roster spot created with Chris Colabello suspension, the rarely mentioned Matt Dominguez is entrenched for the moment as the additional bat off the bench. Dominguez could see time at third or first this weekend if Josh Donaldson needs to rest his calf or Justin Smoak needs to not hit against Drew Smyly.</p>
<p>On the other side of the field; with Brad Boxberger still working his way back from a core injury, Alex Colome has taken the closer role and ran with it &#8211; posting a 9.72 K/9 and a 1.08 ERA over eight appearances this year with five saves.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Michael Saunders (LF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Logan Forsythe (2B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Josh Donaldson (3B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Brad Miller (SS)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Jose Bautista (RF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Evan Longoria (3B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Edwin Encarnacion (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Corey Dickerson (DH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Troy Tulowitzki (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Desmond Jennings (LF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Justin Smoak (1B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Logan Morrison (1B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Russell Martin (C)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Steven Souza Jr (RF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Kevin Pillar (CF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Kevin Kiermaier (CF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Ryan Goins (2B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Curt Casali (C)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>While panic may be setting in over the Jays’ mediocre start and the poor performances from the offense and bullpen, the season is still incredibly young. No matter what happens at the Trop this weekend, it will still be a long time before we know exactly what this Blue Jays team really is and conversely, can worry about what they are not.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>So There IS Another Division: Athletics Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/so-there-is-another-division-athletics-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/so-there-is-another-division-athletics-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Apr 2016 16:13:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1841</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics Friday, April 22nd &#8211; Sunday, April 24th Preview written by Jenn Smith and Sean Addis. The Blue Jays head home after completing a disappointing road trip through Boston and Baltimore, finishing with two one-run heartbreaking losses. The offence continues to struggle if your name isn’t Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion or the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Friday, April 22nd &#8211; Sunday, April 24th</h3>
<p><em>Preview written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/baseballjenn/" target="_blank">Jenn Smith</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/seanaddis/" target="_blank">Sean Addis</a>.</em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays head home after completing a disappointing road trip through Boston and Baltimore, finishing with two one-run heartbreaking losses. The offence continues to struggle if your name isn’t Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion or the newly resurgent Michael Saunders. Saunders was put into the lead off spot in game three of the Red Sox series and has been very effective. In 21 at bats he has eight hits, five runs scored and three walks, maybe a change in the line up would be good for some other Jays hitters. The other change is that the Blue Jays are finally finished with their march through the AL East gauntlet, with the next five series coming against opponents from other divisions.</p>
<p>In contrast to the inconsistent Blue Jays, the Oakland Athletics, come into this series on fire. They have just complete a three game series sweep against the New York Yankees, have won five in a row, to go with a 6-0 record on the road this year. The Athletics pitching staff has been one of the best in the American League with a 2.76 ERA, and the bullpen has not allowed one of their 26 inherited runners to score this season. This series might be a challenge for a Jays team looking to break out of a season long slump.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, April 22nd – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Sonny Gray</strong></p>
<p>Though it has only been three starts, Aaron Sanchez has thus far proven why his rightful place is in the starting rotation. In 20.0 innings pitched, he has an impressive 1.35 ERA, 9.00 K/9 rate and 3.15 BB/9 rate. More significant is his well above league-average 59.2 percent ground ball rate, which is of particular importance against the hitters of the AL East, especially considering the Jays’ stellar infield defense. <a title="Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">Sanchez has relied primarily on his 96 mph sinker</a>, which generates more whiffs/swing than the average sinkers, while mixing in his 96 mph four-seam fastball and 78 mph curve. So when he is also throwing a good changeup, it&#8217;s borderline unfair. In his last outing, he held the Red Sox hitless until two outs in the fifth, eventually striking out seven and walking four while giving up just one run on two hits over seven solid innings.</p>
<p>Since his call-up to the majors in 2013, Sonny Gray has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. Both his 93 mph fourseam fastball and sinker generate a high percentage of ground balls, but given the defense behind him (more on that later), this may actually benefit the Jays. He has a wicked slider and hard curve that he uses to generate strikeouts, while his changeup is used more to create weak contact. After being scratched from Opening Night with a bout of food poisoning, Gray is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 7.91 K/9 and 3.72 K/9 over 19.1 innings. His most recent outing was a six-inning, 114-pitch battle that resulted in a 5-3 victory over the Royals. The only member of the Blue Jays’ lineup who has had success versus Gray is Jose Bautista, who is 5-for-10 lifetime against the right-hander.</p>
<h4>Saturday, April 25th – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Chris Bassitt</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ has carried over last season’s second half resurgence into the early days of the 2016 season. He is coming off his best outing of the season against the Red Sox, where he pitched seven four-hit innings and allowed just one run. He has averaged over six innings a game in his first three starts, which has been the bigger story. Even in his best career run last season with the Pirates, he averaged only 5.2 innings per start. If he can continue to go deep (ish) into games, he will have tremendous value. Since 2013, Happ has pitched five times against the Athletics with a 2.02 ERA over 31.1 innings, so he will be hoping to continue that dominance in game two of the series.</p>
<p>Right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt was one of the four players acquired when the A&#8217;s shipped Jeff Samardzija to the White Sox prior to last season. He has impressed with a 2.79 ERA in three starts, and is coming off back to back seven inning quality performances against the Royals and the Mariners. He throws a lot of sliders and curveballs, and by Mike Sonne&#8217;s metric, has <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/" target="_blank">some of the best &#8220;stuff&#8221; in the game</a>. He has only faced three Blue Jays, we will see whether that will be an advantage for Bassitt or the Blue Jays hitters on Saturday afternoon.</p>
<h4>Sunday, April 24th – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Eric Surkamp</strong><br />
In his 28.1 innings pitched over the course of three starts, Marcus Stroman has looked both brilliant and somewhat shaky. Either way, he has gotten the job done, sporting a 3-0 record thanks to a little help from his friends – namely, some timely hitting from Jays’ hitters. His 4.13 ERA and 4.76 K/9 rate suggest that his starts have not entirely been smooth sailing, but his highly impressive 61.8 percent ground ball rate (league average is around 44) has helped bail him out of some tough spots. Stroman credits his newly-developed power sinker – which he throws at 92 mph to generate an extreme number of ground balls – as key to his success. His slider (85 mph) and change up (84 mph) also generate a high percentage of ground balls. Expect the Stro Show to be on full display against this Athletics’ lineup, most of whom have yet to face the Jays’ anointed ace.</p>
<p>Eric Surkamp has experienced a tumultuous start this his major league career. After two seasons with the San Francisco Giants, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012 and has since been a member of four different teams. Surkamp relies primarily on his fourseam fastball, which is thrown with below-average velocity and generates its fair share of fly balls. He also mixes in a cutter and a change. In his three starts this season, Surkamp is 0-for-1 with a 3.68 ERA over just 14.2 innings. On the bubble with regards to his place in the rotation, Surkamp pitched well enough in his last outing against the Yankees to help his team secure the win, though he earned a no-decision for the affair. His inability to miss bats, the flyballs and his throwing hand all add up to a potentially very favourable matchup for the hometown boys in blue.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Relief pitcher Jesse Chavez has been out of action of late due to back pain, and the team hopes he can take the ball this weekend against his former team. This loss greatly impacted the bullpen usage by manager John Gibbons and could have factored in a couple of the losses against Baltimore. It is worth monitoring when and if Chavez will be used this series. If the injury is prolonged or persistent, it could result in a trip to the disabled list.</p>
<p>Former Blue Jay third baseman Danny Valencia was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain suffered on Wednesday’s game against the Yankees. He was hitting .294/.345/.353 in 55 plate appearances. It is expected that Oakland will call up utility player Tyler Ladendorf, who can play all infield and outfield positions, from Triple-A Nashville. In the absence of Valencia it is expected that Chris Coghlan will see most of the action at third base.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4><strong>The Jays&#8217; (Lack of) Offense </strong></h4>
<p>Seventeen games is certainly early in the season, but the all-world offense of 2015 has yet to materialize. Through the first seventeen games last season, the Jays had scored a total of 84 runs and had put up more than five runs in nine of those games, while striking out a total of 120 times. Over the same period this season, the Jays have managed just 65 runs while racking up a whopping 161 strike outs, and have scored more than five runs just twice. The team is batting a collective .232/.315/.375 and, outside the first four in the lineup, have looked quite lost at the plate. It is a worrying trend given that this team is built on offense. Despite this, the Jays have nearly an identical record as they did at this time last year – they are 8-9 as opposed to 9-8. Credit the Jays’ starting pitching – which has thus far been better than predicted – for picking up the slumping offense.</p>
<h4><strong>The Athletics&#8217; Defense</strong></h4>
<p>Once built with a defense-first mentality, the Athletics are fielding a team of below-average defenders at every position except for Josh Reddick and Yonder Alonso. Coco Crisp was once an elite defender as well, but injury and age seem to have taken their toll, and he is now something of a liability. This bodes well for the Jays&#8217; struggling offense, who, if they can just put the ball in play, may be able to take advantage of the A&#8217;s trouble catching the ball and break out of their slump.</p>
<h4><strong>The Blue Jays Bullpen</strong></h4>
<p>With the aforementioned questionable availability of Jesse Chavez, the Blue Jays are somehow looking at a tired, depleted bullpen despite their starters leading the American League in innings pitched. In the finale against the Orioles, Pat Venditte was asked to throw two innings, despite none of Brett Cecil, Drew Storen, or Roberto Osuna having thrown on back to back days. This suggests that some of these arms may be feeling a little overworked by all the close games early in the season.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 1057px;height: 331px;background-color: #ffffff" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Oakland Athletics</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Billy Burns (CF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders (LF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Coco Crisp (LF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson (3B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Reddick (RF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista (RF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jed Lowrie (2B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion (DH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Stephen Vogt (C)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki (SS)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Coghlan (3B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin (C)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Khris Davis (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak (1B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Yonder Alonso (1B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar (CF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Marcus Semien (SS)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins (2B)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will be looking for a series win against an opponent that, while playing well, is inferior on paper in all aspects of the game. If even one or two of the slumping Blue Jays can snap out of it, and the relievers are all healthy and able to take the mound, there is a good chance the Jays can pull this one off.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>More Home Cooking: Yankees Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/gregtammy-preview-yankees/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/gregtammy-preview-yankees/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Apr 2016 16:35:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1367</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees April 12th &#8211; April 14th By: Greg Wisniewski &#38; Tammy Rainey The first week of the season failed to live up to expectations of Blue Jays fans, as many were expecting a continuation of the intoxicating final third of the 2015 season. However, the ever-timely words of the late Douglas Adams (or [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">April 12th &#8211; April 14th</h3>
<p style="text-align: center">By: <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/gregwisniewski/" target="_blank">Greg Wisniewski</a> &amp; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/tammyrainey/" target="_blank">Tammy Rainey</a></p>
<p>The first week of the season failed to live up to expectations of Blue Jays fans, as many were expecting a continuation of the intoxicating final third of the 2015 season. However, the ever-timely words of the late Douglas Adams (or French Montana for Roberto Osuna) still apply &#8211; Don&#8217;t Panic. So far Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista have been carrying an otherwise ineffective offensive effort, Michael Saunders .774 OPS is third best on the team, and out-of-character pitching failures have let to more collar-tugging than we had anticipated. The Jays&#8217; opponent, the New York Yankees, have are coming into town having played only five games to Toronto&#8217;s seven. That&#8217;s because they&#8217;ve already had two games postponed due to the fun that is April weather systems. They&#8217;ve done a lot of damage in those five games though, putting up a total of 35 runs, or seven per game.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Tuesday, April 12th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> vs. <strong>Masahiro Tanaka</strong></p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is the Jays pitcher a lot of people like to dream on. After bulking up by 20+ pounds in the offseason, and committing himself to train for a starter&#8217;s stamina, expectations were high. Then his first start of the season was everything that we had hoped for. He was absolutely brilliant, shutting down Tampa for seven innings using all of his pitches and throwing strikes. It remains to be seen, of course, how much of that dominance were due to Sanchez having raised his game, and how much was the Rays being an overly aggressive team in their first series out of Spring Training. If Sanchez maintains his velocity for the whole seven innings, and keeps the free passes to a minimum against the veteran Yankees, he will have passed another difficult test.</p>
<p>Thanks to a rain out in Sunday&#8217;s finale with the Tigers, Masahiro Tanaka, the de facto ace of the Yankees staff, will be starting this series against the Blue Jays. When he arrived in the Big Apple after signing a 175 million dollar contract, he was a dominant force, but then he experienced a partial tear of his UCL. Opting for rehab instead of surgery, Tanaka has stayed in the rotation but has had his rest carefully monitored. Then, over the winter, he also had bone spur removed from his elbow. His manager, Joe Girardi, thinks Tanaka has been <a href="http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/04/yankees_spot_change_in_masahiro_tanaka_post-injuri.html">more tentative</a> since the first injury. His first start of 2016 was only 87 pitches long, and Tanaka himself described a feeling of fatigue at the end of it. He started last April at <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=547888&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=mph&amp;s_type=2&amp;endDate=04/11/2016&amp;startDate=04/01/2015">lower velocities</a> as well, but ramped up over the summer. The Jays will be looking for that timidness to result in enough mistakes to capitalize on. The basic plan of attack against Tanaka is to force him to bring the ball up. If he is pounding the lower part of the zone and forcing hitters to chase the splitter, he can be very tough to beat.</p>
<p>Two different Blue Jay leadoff hitters have taken him deep to start a game, will Kevin Pillar be the third?</p>
<h4>Wednesday, April 13th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ</strong> vs. <strong>Michael Pineda</strong></p>
<p>The timing of Marco Estrada&#8217;s return from injury means that J.A. Happ slots into the fifth position in the Blue Jays rotation. Often rotations have more to do with off days and injuries, but in this case, the fifth spot seems like the right place for him to be. If Happ is what he was for a few months in Pittsburgh in 2015, there will be much joyous dancing. If he does what he did in Tampa on his first turn through: 6 innings, 2 runs, 4 strikeouts and one walk, everybody goes home happy as well. Happ altered his pitch mix in 2015 favouring the four seamer more and more as the year went on.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/hap-pitch-usage.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1373" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/hap-pitch-usage-1024x683.png" alt="hap pitch usage" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center">
<p style="text-align: center">
<p>And then 2016 comes along, and he completely reverses course? What&#8217;s up J.A.? Success was too much for you?</p>
<p>Pineda is an imposing physical specimen, listed at 6&#8217;7&#8243;, 260 lbs, he figures to have all the tools to make for a dangerous mound opponent. However, since the beginning of his career in 2011 with the Mariners, he&#8217;s only logged 69 total starts. Injury problems have kept him off the mound for at least part of every year since. 2015 included a month away due to a forearm strain, and he was inconsistent, at best when he returned. Pineda last recorded an out in the seventh inning on July 10, 2015. His last two starts of last year, he allowed 7 runs in six innings and 4 runs in 3.2. He began 2016 in much the same vein, with six runs allowed in 5 innings, including three home runs. If there&#8217;s a pitcher who can help some of the Blue Jay bats heat up, Pineda looks like the most likely candidate.</p>
<h4>Thursday, April 14th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong> vs. <strong>Nathan Eovaldi</strong></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman will be back on the Rogers Centre mound again to finish of the series, and he will be attempting to make everybody forget the worst &#8216;home&#8217; start of his career. Boston did everything but take Stroman deep, tagging him for six hits and working three walks off of him in just 5.1 innings. That added up to five runs, which is, frankly, really ugly for your number one starter. The incredible command he had in Tampa just wasn&#8217;t there, and the sinker didn&#8217;t have much bite, with the Red Sox squaring up the mistakes and hitting line drives all over the park. Stroman hasn&#8217;t walked as many as three batters in the regular season since August of 2014, so you can expect a return to the kind of control of the zone we&#8217;ve been used to since his 2015 return. Keep an eye on his sinker location early. If he starts elevating the ball, it could be a long night.</p>
<p>Nathan Eovaldi throws very hard. His 98 mph fastball is probably the first thing you&#8217;ll notice about him, and it helped him strike out seven in just five innings in his first start. It helped him not walk anyone as well. What it didn&#8217;t help him do was get out of the game unscathed. Eovaldi doesn&#8217;t have a swing and miss pitch. Despite its rocket like velocity, batters only swing and miss at an Eovaldi fastball 6.7 percent of the time. While poking around his Brooks Baseball page, I did notice this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center">
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1376" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/eovaldi-slider.png" alt="eovaldi slider" width="500" height="89" /></p>
<p style="text-align: center">
<p>That change in the slider speed seems crazy. It turns out, it&#8217;s <a href="http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-analysis-sabermetrics/2016/4/10/11400084/nathan-eovaldi-slider-cutter-yankees-starter-rotation-2016">not the same slider</a> as before. If he&#8217;s going to try it out as his put away pitch, we will see if the Jays advance scouts have noticed that five mph, and how the Blue Jay batters want to deal with it.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Newly-signed LHP Franklin Morales hit the DL on Sunday to make room for Marco Estrada to rejoin the Blue Jays rotation. Due to MLB option rules this leaves the team without a second LH reliever to compliment Brett Cecil. This will likely change on Wednesday, the first day the team can recall a player optioned to the minors at the start of the season. The best guess is that reverse-split RH Ryan Tepera, who made the team out of camp but lost the position when Morales was signed, will get the call, but switch-pitcher Pat Vendette is make a strong case in the early going at Buffalo. Odds are RH rookie Arnold Leon will be waived in the same transaction. Otherwise, the Toronto line-up remains intact from Opening Day.</p>
<p>Over the off-season the Yankees signed a whopping zero free agents. It was the first time since the advent of Free Agency that it had happened. Nutty. Aroldis Chapman is both an addition from the offseason, and a subtraction due to suspension. Swingman Brian Mitchell made the 25 man roster, and was then placed on the DL after injuring his toe in a spring training game. We won&#8217;t see him this series, unless it lasts more than 4 months. Former starter Ivan Nova now finds himself a member of the Yankee bullpen.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Starlin Castro</strong></p>
<p>Newly acquired (from the Cubs) 2B Starlin Castro is off to a blazing start with a .450 batting average and a 1.326 OPS over the first five games. Do dark pinstripes have a magic that the blue pinstripes don&#8217;t? He is going to be a big part of the success of the Yankees, as he is one of the few true right-handed hitters in the lineup.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Calf</strong></p>
<p>No, not a baby cow. Donaldson suffered a minor injury to his calf muscle during the series in Montreal (this seems to be an annual theme. Someone gets a nagging injury from playing on that cement), and was forced to work as the designated hitter against the Boston Red Sox. This move meant that both Justin Smoak and Chris Colabello were forced to sit on the bench, and shortened the Jays normally potent lineup. When Ezequiel Carrera is hitting sixth, as happened on Saturday, something isn&#8217;t right. Donaldson is expected to be back at third base to start the Yankees series though, so let&#8217;s hope he can stay healthy.</p>
<p><strong>Russell Martin</strong></p>
<p>While the Blue Jays bats have been on a strikeout binge to start the season, (27.4% of the team&#8217;s plate appearances!!) Russell Martin is by far the worst offender among the regulars. He&#8217;s struck out in exactly 50% of his trips to the plate, and has just one real hit on the season (his other one was a line drive off the pitcher that would&#8217;ve been a double play if it went by). That&#8217;s too crazy to continue, and this series would be a great time for him to find his usual discipline in the box.</p>
<p><strong>Early Leads and Bullpen Usage</strong></p>
<p>Good news! The Blue Jays have scored first in every game this season. Bad news! The bullpen has failed to hang on to four of those leads, and the team is one game under .500. Watch and see who John Gibbons decides to trust with the lead if the starter is in trouble in the sixth or earlier, as he can&#8217;t mix and match Cecil, Storen and Osuna every night without wearing them out. Gavin Floyd and Joe Biagini have been solid, but neither has a long track record as a reliever.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the Yankees are still a very dangerous team if they&#8217;re handed a lead late. The aforementioned Chapman may be suspended, but this team still runs out Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller (pitching with a broken bone in his non-pitching hand) at the end of games, and that can be devastating. The Jays will have to do damage against their starters and the mediocre middle relief corps.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Yankees</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jacoby Ellsbury &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Brett Gardner &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Alex Rodriguez &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Mark Teixeira &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Brian McCann &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Beltran &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Colabello &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Chase Headley &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Starlin Castro &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Didi Gregorius &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The early season AL East gauntlet continues. Even in less compelling seasons, the best crowds of the year have always been when the Yankees come to town. In 2015 the Jays rewarded those crowds with a 13-6 record against New York. Now that the Blue Jays are the favorites, the fans will no doubt be looking for the home team to continue their dominance.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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