Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
September 2nd – September 4th
Written by Matt Gwin, Nick Dika, and Joshua Howsam
With a record of 19-11 over their last 30 games, the Blue Jays we know and love are back. With Baseball Prospectus assigning them a 94.2% chance at making the playoffs, meaningful October baseball will almost certainly be played in Toronto. However, that shouldn’t diminish this last month of the season. While the Jays do have an almost certain shot at a playoff spot, at 60.9%, their chance to win the division is much lower. They’ve got an amped up Red Sox squad and a still fighting Orioles team nipping at their heels. As a result, the two teams in the AL East not playing for a playoff spot, the Yankees and Rays, may end up being the most important ones. The two teams will play a combined 36 games against the Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles. The AL East’s two basement dwellers don’t have a great shot at the playoffs, but they could certainly create some interesting September baseball.
Pitching Matchups
Friday, September 2nd – 7:05 PM ET
Marcus Stroman vs. Alex Cobb
While the outcomes left something to be desired, Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.58 ERA) continued to pitch well in his last turn through the rotation against the Minnesota Twins. Stroman surrendered five runs in six innings of work, but the young righty limited his home runs (0), walks (1), and hard contact (19.1%) despite giving up nine hits to the Twins. Since struggling to pitch effectively in May and June, Stroman has pitched very well in July and August – posting a 3.43 ERA and 2.45 xFIP since July 1st. In three starts this season against the Rays, Stroman has pitched to a 2-1 record, surrendering 11 runs in 21.2 innings.
Alex Cobb will make his first start of the 2016 season on Friday night as the right-hander has missed the bulk of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. After a strong 2014 in which Cobb posted a 2.87 ERA in 166 innings, he was pegged as a potential breakout candidate last season before the elbow injury stalled his progress. The 28-year-old’s arsenal consists of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination with his fastball typically topping out at just less than 92 mph in 2014. As with any pitcher returning from a major arm injury, Cobb’s velocity and control may not return to him as quickly as he would like. Cobb has struck out 10 batters and walked five in 15 innings of rehab work at Triple A this season.
Saturday, September 3rd – 7:05 PM ET
Marco Estrada vs. Chris Archer
Once again the Blue Jays are bypassing Francisco Liriano (his original day would’ve been Friday), this time so that they can keep Marco Estrada on his regular rest. While it didn’t seem to matter for Aaron Sanchez, pitching every five days seems to make a difference for Estrada. In his two outings prior to his dominance of the Orioles, on six and seven days rest, Estrada was very much not himself. Not only was he hit hard, giving up 11 runs in nine innings of work, but his stuff was also worse. His normally heavily-rising fastball was staying up at a season-low rate, but then rebounded nicely on regular rest against the Orioles (see chart below). Look for the Jays to do their best to keep him on a regular schedule going forward.
Much like Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10 EREA) has seen his season take a positive turn after struggling early on. Through the first three months of the season, Archer owned an ugly 4.76 ERA and an uncharacteristically high BB/9 of 3.94. While he was still striking out batters at an elite rate, his lack of slider command rendered him ineffective. Since the beginning of July, Archer has been able to regain command of his wipeout slider and looks a lot like the CY Young candidate he was last season – posting a 10.83 K/9, 2.17 BB/9 and a 3.18 ERA.
Sept 4th – 7:05 PM ET
J.A. Happ vs. Blake Snell
J.A. Happ is also jumping the line, taking the spot that would have most likely gone to R.A. Dickey if the Jays were still going in order. Despite giving up a few runs in each of his last three starts, Happ has continued to excel for the Blue Jays as they head into September baseball. He has been using some unique stuff to generate outs, and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of slowing down. His worst outing of the season happened to come against these same Rays (the only outing where he failed to go at least five innings), but he then dominated them his next time out, holding them off the scoreboard for six innings while striking out seven. This will be an interesting test to see how the Rays adjust back to the tall lefty.
Blake Snell (4-7, 3.56 ERA) continues an up and down rookie season that is equal parts promising and frustrating. While Snell has shown an arsenal that is able to generate swings and misses at the big league level, he has also demonstrated an inability to command his repertoire effectively. Not only has Snell’s 5.27 BB/9 increased his opponent’s opportunities to score runs against him, the elevated pitch counts that come with walking the farm limit Snell’s ability to pitch deep into games. Snell has only pitched into the seventh inning twice this season. In his only start against the Blue Jays, Snell surrendered five runs (two earned) in only 1.2 innings of work – giving up five hits and four walks in what was the shortest outing of his season so far. A patient Jays’ lineup may be able to exploit Snell once again.
Additions and Subtractions
As the major league season rolls in to September, it’s time for expanded rosters. As such, there’s quite a few more additions than there are subtractions. On the Blue Jays side of things, the team will be to calling up OFs Dalton Pompey and Darrell Ceciliani, C Josh Thole, LHP Matt Dermody, and RHPs Danny Barnes and Ryan Tepera. Given that they’ve previously been up for the Jays this season, Barnes and Tepera seemed like fairly obvious adds. For his part, Danny Barnes has had an immaculate season as a reliever in AA and AAA. Over a combined 61 1/3 innings between the two levels, Barnes had a combined 0.73 ERA and a 12.83 strikeout to walk ratio. Ryan Tepera fared well in the minors too, with a 2.58 ERA in 45 1/3 innings at AAA.
Pompey call up was alos a foregone conclusion. Last September, he was utilized in a pinch running role and defensive replacement role, and it’s easy to see that happening again. Ceciliani has also seen his time in the bigs, and will help with outfield depth. Thole’s reason for being around is also obvious, as he will still catch whenever Dickey takes the mound. He was DFA and released to make room for Dioner Navarro, but the team always wanted him back. Technically, Devon Travis is also an addition, as he had to go on option to Rookie-level Bluefield for one day to allow Thole to be postseason eligible.
Matt Dermody is the least known of the call ups, and has pitched zero innings at the major league level. Dermody had some success in both Dunedin and New Hampshire this year, so he could be interesting. He was recalled as an extra left hander out of the bullpen, as Aaron Loup needs to stay down until the AAA season is finished before being recalled. The same is true of Bo Schultz; Schultz and Loup could see call ups when the roster rules allow it.
Meanwhile, the Rays called up C Curt Casali, RHP Ryan Garton, and RHP Eddie Gamboa. Gamboa is the most interesting of the three, as he’ll be one of just a few knuckleballers in the majors. Mark Topkins notes in the Tampa Bay Times, “Gamboa, 31, joined the Rays as a minor-league free agent this year, working under new pitching coordinator Charlie Haeger, after switching to being a primarily a knuckleballer in 2013.” The Jays may see Gamboa in this series, giving each team a knuckleballing option. As for the other two, Curt Casali is your typical third catcher for September, and Ryan Garton is just another bullpen option.
Keep an Eye On
6-Man Central
Shortly after the Blue Jays acquired Francisco Liriano at the non-waiver trade deadline, they had a decision to make. The addition of Liriano gave the Jays more starters than one would fit in the typical rotation. However, it became a blessing in disguise, as a 6-man rotation would allow the Blue Jays’ four historically less-worked pitchers, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, and Stroman, to rest down the stretch. Just last week, the Rays joined the 6-man rotation club, as they also found themselves with more pitchers than rotation spots. In the Rays’ case they had a few too many younger starters that all needed major league innings.
Usage of Recent Additions
As noted above, each of the Blue Jays and Rays have added a few players to their major league rosters as they expand for September. We already know a bit about what each of the players have to offer…therefore the more interesting trend to watch will be how the players are used. Will the Blue Jays rest backend relievers like Grilli and Osuna in favour of Barnes and Tepera? Will Dalton Pompey get any outfield time, or will he be relegated to running the base paths? Will knuckleballer Eddie Gamboa get a start down the stretch?
Tropicana Punch
Despite playing half their games in the spacious Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays have allowed the seventh most home runs in all of baseball (170). With the return of a healthy Bautista (two HRs vs Baltimore), and Saunders showing a resurgence in power, we could see a lot of balls leaving the yard in this series.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Rays |
| Jose Bautista – RF | Logan Forsythe – 2B |
| Josh Donaldson – 3B | Kevin Kiermaier – CF |
| Edwin Encarnacion – 1B | Evan Longoria – 3B |
| Russell Martin – C | Brad Miller – 1B |
| Troy Tulowitzki – SS | Matt Duffy – SS |
| Michael Saunders – DH | Logan Morrison – DH |
| Kevin Pillar – CF | Steven Souza – RF |
| Melvin Upton Jr. – LF | Corey Dickerson – LF |
| Devon Travis – 2B | Bobby Wilson – C |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
At the beginning of the season, the Jays had a few scuffles. As such, they didn’t get quite the national attention that they deserved. As Michael Baumann writes at The Ringer, “the Blue Jays, when they’re on, are a reality-altering drug. And even though we haven’t been talking about them as much, they’re on again.” The Jays are in place to once again win the AL East. While they weren’t the most exciting team in the first half of the season; there’s no ignoring the talent that has put them in a place to win the division.
Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports