The Blue Jays Cases for Midseason Cy Young

Last week, I wrote an article outlining the reasons why Aaron Sanchez should remain a starter for the duration of the season. Since then, Aaron has made two starts; going eight full innings in both and surrendering only one run each time. I have become enamored with the thought of Sanchez being a member of the Jays starting rotation for years to come. While the prospect of Sanchez in the future is tantalizing, it shouldn’t be lost that Sanchez has been REALLY good in 2016.

Thus far, Sanchez has a 2.94 ERA in 17 starts, accumulating 113.1 innings. He has punched out 99 batters and walked 35, good for a K/BB of 2.83; this is a drastic improvement from his 1.66 career mark prior to this season. The league announced the All-Star selections today and while Sanchez was not selected, three of his teammates were: Encarnacion, Donaldson, and Estrada. I am of the opinion that Aaron has not only been the best starter on the Jays staff, but also one of the best pitchers in the American League and very deserving of a selection to the mid-summer classic. However, in light of the knowledge that he did not make his first All-Star game (though there’s a good chance he makes it as a replacement), let’s take a look at the landscape of AL pitching and attempt to award a mid-season Cy-Young winner.

Below is a chart of the top-10 AL pitchers sorted by innings pitched in 2016. Limiting this list to innings pitched does exclude some of the top talent in the AL but I will touch on the pitchers that deserve to be in the conversation of Cy-Young winner further below.

In the entire AL, Aaron Sanchez has thrown the third most innings pitched. The Jays plan of managing his innings hasn’t exactly worked out well; but in reality this is no discredit to the Blue Jays, Sanchez’s excellent outings have forced the Jays to pitch him so much. He is also surrounded by quality pitchers everywhere on this list. Sanchez finds himself behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber in total innings pitched; a testament to how consistently deep Sanchez has gone into games.

If you look across every statistic in the chart, Sanchez is represented near the top in a large majority. This season, the 24 year old righty has excelled at inducing ground balls from opposing hitters. 56.7 percent of all balls into play against Sanchez are groundballs, ranking second on this list, only behind pitching mate Marcus Stroman. Unfortunately Stroman hasn’t exactly pitched himself into the conversation for mid-season Cy-Young (though optimism is building after his last start). For me, the one number that stuck out in particular is Sanchez’ only slightly above average strikeout rate. I believe this is a strategic approach to get deeper into ball games by registering quick outs, as when he gets to two strikes, he ranks in the top 15 (14th) among AL starters in strikeout rate. However, the Jays coaching staff have seen that Sanchez possesses one of the nastiest fastballs in the entire league. Not many guys throw upper 90’s and have nine inches of horizontal break. Sanchez just attemps to pound the zone consistently, which causes batters to swing often and attempt to put the ball in play. When the opposing team puts the ball in play, it is likely to be drilled into the dirt, resulting in an easier route to an out.

Sanchez doesn’t showcase the lowest walk per nine on the list but coming into the season, it was the biggest question mark surrounding the 24-year-old Californian. In his first two seasons in the league, Sanchez walked 3.8 batters per nine innings of work. As you can see above, he has trimmed that number down to a very respectable 2.8. It is encouraging to see a young pitcher identify an area of his game that needs improving. It is even more impressive for them to be successful in rectifying their weaknesses.

That’s, enough about Sanchez; now let’s actually attempt to award the mid-season Cy-Young. I mentioned earlier that sorting by innings pitched excluding some deserving candidates and I believe there are four pitchers who should also be in the conversation. I also believe that Stroman, Iwakuma, and Price (from the previous list) do not deserve consideration. Here are the other four names:

First time all-star Marco Estrada is very deserving of being considered, as are Tanaka, Salazar, and Bauer. Having said that Salazar is a pitcher of two extremes; he strikes out more batters per inning than anyone else on these lists but he also has the highest walk rate per nine out of anyone. In my opinion, Sanchez could have similar numbers to Salazar if he tried to strike everyone out, and for the Jays sake, I’m happy he doesn’t.

Even with these four additions, I am having a very hard time finding any other worthy candidate for the mid-season Cy-Young than Chris Sale, despite a less than stellar in June. Over five starts during the month, Sale registered a 3.93 ERA and allowed hitters to bat .270 off of him. He still averaged just under seven innings per start and struck out 33, while only walking seven. I’ll still give him the mid-season Cy-Young, but if his current form continues for much of the second half, he will certainly be falling back towards the pack. If I had a second and third place vote, I would give the nods to Jose Quintana and the Blue Jays very own Aaron Sanchez, respectively (narrowly edging out defending recent full-season Cy-Young winner Corey Kluber). Honorable mentions go to Steven Wright (who, is attempting to yank the ‘best-knuckleballer-in-the-league’ crown off of R.A. Dickey’s head), Masahiro Tanaka, and Marco Estrada.

That we can even include two Blue Jays starters on this list is a testament to just how good they have been. If they can keep it up, perhaps they’ll have a real award to place on their mantle someday.

Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports