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When Cats Fly: Tigers Preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers

July 7th  – July 10th

Written by Matt Gwin and Tammy Rainey

With the All-Star break just days away, the Toronto Blue Jays are riding a five game winning streak as the neighbouring Detroit Tigers come to town. But more than that, since they bottomed out at four games under .500 on May 18, the boys in blue are 29-16. That’s a .644 winning percentage. Over a full season that’s a pace that wins you 103 games. Even over the remainder of the season, that pace would lead to 96 wins. The Jays have quietly become one of the best teams in baseball of late. The Tigers come in fairly warm themselves, sporting a .618 winning percentage since June 1. But they also come in without some key players and offering up much more hittable pitchers.

Pitching Matchups:

July 7th – 7:07 PM ET

Drew Hutchison  vs. Justin Verlander

Blue Jays fans love to laud Drew Hutchison’s abilities. However, they’re missing one key point: he has never really been all that great. Some people think back to September 2014, when Hutch struck out almost 35 percent of batters he faced. That allowed him to finish the season with a 3.85 FIP, a mark of his ‘true potential’. As a result, 2015 was almost unanimously declared his breakout season…we all know how that went.

Now, as he has opened the minor league season with a high strikeout rate and a 2.78 ERA, people are believing again. I’m not going to tell you not to believe entirely; Drew Hutchison is only 26. But, I would tell you to look at the results, whether you prefer actual or peripheral. In no season has he had an ERA below 4.40, and in only one season has his FIP been that low. It’s time to temper expectations, as a good Tigers lineup is not going to be kind to him.

Verlander is somewhat quietly having a very interesting season. Notice how I said interesting, and not necessarily good. At present, he’s striking out batters at a higher rate than any season since his 2011 AL Cy Young and AL MVP campaign. But, his current 4.11 ERA is nowhere near the sparkling 2.40 mark that earned him those accolades. Why? Well, he’s giving up homers more frequently than he ever has. Some might think that these two things are mutually exclusive, but Verlander’s pitch charts would beg to differ.

VerlanderZonePercent

As you can see, Justin is consciously working up in the zone with his fastball. If you can control it, and mix it in well with a glut of other pitches, a high fastball can be a valuable weapon. Verlander isn’t quite doing that; expect a dinger or two off the starter.

July 8th – 7:07 PM ET

J.A. Happ vs. Mike Pelfrey

Like a few other members of this starting staff, Happ continues to defy convention. Strikeouts go down, walks go up, home runs go up…ERA goes down? Up is down, down is up, and at some point I expect to see the Mad Hatter. With that said, to his credit, Happ has recently been more conventionally successful. In three of his last four starts, he left the game without giving up a homer, which is something that he’d only done in 6 of his 13 starts this season. In his last start, Happ also struck out 11 batters; his highest total since August 2014. You probably shouldn’t expect to see quite as good a performance this time around as the Tigers are a good fastball hitting team, and loaded with righthanded power hitters. As a result, you should see Happ go to his curveball and changeup more than he has in other instances this season.

As a Met, Mike Pelfrey was a bad pitcher. The Twins then signed him to a two year $11 million contract. As a Twin, Mike Pelfrey was a bad pitcher pitcher. The Tigers then signed him to a two year $8 million contract. What’s that thing that they say about insanity again…? In all seriousness, if Pelfrey can keep the the ball on the ground, as he sometimes does well, he may be able to work his way through five innings. With a strong Tigers lineup behind him, that may be enough.

July 9th – 1:07 PM ET

Aaron Sanchez vs. TBD

Having a pitcher who is too good to put back in to the bullpen is a good problem to have. As Sanchez has continued to dominate, it certainly hasn’t made the problem any easier. Let’s look at his last start, on July 4th against the Royals. Sanchez should not have gotten through eight inning on only 96 pitches…yet he did. He wasn’t striking batters out; nor was he grounding batters out. Instead, Aaron Sanchez gave up eight line drives, which is his highest total of the season. However, even when hits did fall, he had a nasty sinker in his back pocket, ready to get him out of a tough inning. Once again, the Tigers have a lineup of players primed to hit the fastball, but Sanchez tends not to alter his approach too much. In fact, the last time he faced them he threw 80 percent fastballs and struck out 12 in eight innings. So while we could see him throw extra curveballs and changeups to combat the power, clearly the fastball works for him.

The Tigers have yet to announce a starter for this game, but it looks like it could end up being Matt Boyd, the former Blue Jay and one of the trade pieces used to acquire David Price for last year’s stretch run. If it is him, the ball could be flying out of the yard. He is quite homer prone and the right-handed Jays power should give him fits.

July 10th – 7:07 PM ET

R.A. Dickey vs. Anibal Sanchez

While we generally think of R.A. Dickey solely as a knuckleballer, he actually throws four distinct pitches: a fourseameam fastball, sinker, knuckleball, and changeup. In his last start, he threw at least once of each pitch, which isn’t something he does very often. In fact it was just the fourth time this year that he’d done it. I’ll admit, for R.A. Dickey, his pitch selection probably isn’t as important as his ability to control the knuckler on a given day. However, I’m a fan of when he mixes things up. It’s hard to say for certain, but it definitely seems to keep hitters off-balance. In some ways, it worked in his last start, as he struck out eight batters. However, he also struggled to keep the ball on the ground more than he has the rest of the season, which likely won’t change against Detroit, who has a lineup of fly ball hitters. Heed caution with the upper half of the strike zone, R.A.

To put it lightly, Anibal Sanchez has gone off the rails this season. He has a career worst walk rate, home run rate, ERA, FIP, and DRA. At the end of May, it had gotten so bad, that the Tigers resorted to putting him in the bullpen: a $16 million long reliever. Fortunately for Anibal, and unfortunately for the Tigers, starters Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris have hit the disabled list. Now, out of necessity, he’s starting once again. In his last start, he lasted just 4.1 innings. In the start prior to that, it was just five innings. Against the Jays, in his current state, I’d be surprised to see him get out of the fourth.

Additions and Subtractions

The big news for Toronto is obviously the back-story on Marco Estrada. As much as the All-Star pitcher passionately wanted to stay off the DL and participate in the mid-summer classic, the team came to the wise conclusion that circumstances demanded some time off. Estrada won’t pitch again before the Jays host the Seattle Mariners July 22-24.  His place on the roster will be taken by the recalled Bo Schultz.

As mentioned above, the Tigers are without some key pieces. They’re currently missing slugging RF JD Martinez, replaced by Steven Moya, and they have also lost one of their better starting pitchers in Jordan Zimmerman.  His turn in the rotation had been turned over to former Blue Jay Daniel Norris but he, too, left with an injury early in his last start so the next man in line is another former Blue Jay, as detailed above, Matt Boyd.

Keep an Eye On

Josh Donaldson

Don’t look now but, after a mid-May slump (playing through a couple of mild injuries) took him off the radar for some people, Donaldson is not only back but having a better year than his 2015 MVP campaign. He’s on pace to match Bryce Harper’s 9.5 fWAR from last season JD had 8.7 last year), and to challenge Jeff Bagwell’s modern record of 152 runs scored.

Michael Saunders

As the newly christened “Captain Canada” continues to build his case for All Star election, it’s worth noting how remarkably consistent he’s been as a force in the Blue Jays’ lineup. Since April 20 (early season fluctuations aside, in other words) his OPS hasn’t gone below .872 and has spend 56 of the intervening 65 games over .900.  Over the last month, he’s sporting a .998 OPS and shows no sign of slowing down.

Drew Hutchinson’s Performance

With the non-waiver trade deadline coming up in less than a month, Hutch’s start against Detroit tonight is critical for both him and the team. It’s bad enough that the Jays are so thin in SP depth (beyond Hutch the next men in line are Jesse Chavez and Joe Biagini and then things get really dicey) but the trade market is also very slim and adding an arm might be expensive. Hutch’s one inning relief appearance against the Indians, on short notice, may not have been the best representation of what he offers but it left a bad taste in the mouths of much of the fan base. However, he pitched well in his previous spot start and he’s been near dominant at AAA (10.8 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). A good outing here would increase everyone’s confidence level.

Probable Lineup

Blue Jays

Tigers

Ezequiel Carrera – RF Ian Kinsler – 2B
Josh Donaldson – 3B Cameron Maybin – CF
Edwin Encarnacion – DH Miguel Cabrera – 1B
Michael Saunders – LF Victor Martinez – DH
Russell Martin – C Nick Castellanos – 3B
Troy Tulowitzki – SS Justin Upton – LF
Justin Smoak – 1B Steven Moya – RF
Devon Travis – 2B James McCann – C
Kevin Pillar – CF Jose Iglesias – SS

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

Toronto has the opportunity to continue momentum into the break and beyond. They’ve gotten themselves ahead of Boston and have the Orioles firmly in their sights. Going into the break on a series win at home would feel good all around.

Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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