Back to the Bronx: Yankees Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

May 30th – June 1st

 Written by Sean Addis and Joshua Howsam

The Blue Jays are coming off an emotional roller coaster of a series against the division foe Boston Red Sox that saw the home side take two of three. The bats finally bailed out the pitching in game two of the set, and then David Price did what David Price does and the Sawx avoided a sweep with an extra-inning win. After dropping two of three to the Blue Jays back in New York, the Yankees made a stopover in their spring home of Tampa. They got back on the winning side of things, taking two of three from the hometown Rays thanks to some excellent pitching from Masahiro Tanaka and Nathan Eovaldi. They come in to Toronto looking for a little revenge, so this should be a good series.

Pitching Matchups:

Monday, May 30th – 7:07 PM ET

Marco Estrada vs. Ivan Nova

For those who believe that Estrada is still something of a fluke, it has now been a full calendar year of work as a fully stretched out starter. In that time, he has put up a 2.98 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .197 opponents’ batting average. Those are elite numbers. He still has an extremely low BABIP (.213) on the year, but that’s right in line with his .214 BABIP of 2015.  As always, it is due for some level of regression, but his extreme spin continues to generate a lot of poor contact which should help keep the BABIP at a reasonably low level. He has faced the Yankees once so far this season, in his most recent start. He went seven innings and gave up three runs (two in the seventh) on four hits and a season low two strikeouts. Walks continue to be something of an issue for Estrada this year, as he issued another four free passes last time out. It will be interesting to see how the notoriously patient Yankees adjust.

Ivan Nova has always been something of an enigma. He has pretty decent stuff, but has never really been much in the way of strikeouts and has always been somewhat homer prone. He looked to have figured things out in 2013, but then went down with Tommy John surgery early in 2014, and was a mess upon his return last season. He began the 2016 season in the pen, but has recently transitioned into the rotation. His first three starts were excellent, if short, as he allowed only a solitary run in each of them. Last time out against the Blue Jays, Nova finally gave up a few more runs (four in total), but still pitched into the seventh inning (6 2/3), and struck out eight with seven hits. If the Jays can score four again, they should be in good shape, but a few extra runs this time would surely be appreciated by the 2-2 Marco Estrada.

Tuesday, May 31st – 7:07 PM ET

J.A. Happ vs. C.C. Sabathia

Like Estrada, the current version of Happ looks more and more real every time out. With the exception of one blip against the Rays, Happ has been excellent every time he has taken the ball. Even with that disaster start on his resume, he still enters this game with a 3.20 ERA in ten starts. More importantly, he has thrown 64.2 innings in those ten starts, which is by far a career best level of efficiency. Even during his Clayton Kershaw-like run in Pittsburgh, Happ was still only averaging six innings per start. Some of that was due to pinch hitters, but going deep in games has never been the strong suit for the lanky lefty. The Yankees really struggle with left-handed pitching, and Happ’s two starts against them this year have been no exception. He has thrown a combined 13 innings and given up just two runs on ten hits. The Yankees will surely study the game films to see if they can pick up some patterns, but they’re unlikely to find any. The first time out, Happ used his curve and changeup heavily. Last time, he barely threw them at all, relying on the two fastballs and the slutter. This is what makes Happ so tough to hit, and we should see a new mix in this outing.

C.C. Sabathia has been so rocky over the last couple of seasons that it’s easy to forget that this man was once one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. He doesn’t throw nearly as hard as he used to, but he seems to be figuring out how to work with lower velocity, as he enters this game with a 2.83 ERA and 36 Ks in 41.1 IP. He has all but junked the fourseam fastball, instead relying on a cutter to complement his two-seamer. At 28.5 percent usage, the cutter is actually Sabathia’s second most common offering after the two-seamer (33.9 percent). He’ll then back that up with a solid changeup and a slider. He baffled and beguiled the Blue Jays last time out, going seven strong innings allowing just two hits and two unearned runs with seven strikeouts. The Blue Jays bats will need to change their approach this time around if they hope to have any success against the big lefty.

Wednesday, June 1st – 7:07 PM ET

Aaron Sanchez vs. Masahiro Tanaka

Raise your hand if you thought Aaron Sanchez would be averaging 6.5 innings per start, ten outings into the season. If you have your hand up, please leave some stock tips in the comments. Like Happ, the biggest worry about Sanchez was related to just how deep in games he would be able to go. The stuff was clearly there, but his habit of dancing around the plate on every hitter tended to make his pitch counts soar. So far this season though, the fireballing righthander has been much more efficient, throwing strikes on 63.9 percent of his pitches, up from 58.3 percent in his starts last year. He is getting more swings and misses now (right around league average at 21.1 percent), but still relies on his elite groundball skills to navigate innings. His 59.7 percent groundball rate is second in the AL and third in the majors, sitting right behind his teammate Marcus Stroman (59.9 percent). Sanchez has faced the Yankees just once this season back in April, going six innings and allowing two runs (one earned) and striking out five. He has refined his changeup since then, so it will be interesting to see how he attacks the lefty-heavy New York lineup.

Somehow the Blue Jays managed to actually miss Masahiro Tanaka last series. Given how the matchups have worked out over the last couple of years, one could be forgiven for thinking it was an edict of the CBA that he must start against the Blue Jays. Despite a constant fear that his elbow could snap at any moment (one the Yankees share, as they are being very careful with his pitch count), Tanaka has been every bit as advertised for New York this year. In 65.1 innings across ten starts, Tanaka has an ERA of 2.89 with 54 strikeouts and just 12 walks. Like his mound opponent for this game, Tanaka is a heavy groundball pitcher. Batters shoot the ball into the grass (or turf!) 55.1 percent of the time, which is the twelfth highest rate in all of baseball. He also uses a bevy of pitches, throwing his fastball under 40 percent of the time, so look for a lot of sliders and splitters against the Blue Jays hitters. He used them to decent effect last time out, going just five innings (he had horrible command – walking four), but allowing only two runs and striking out six.

Additions and Subtractions

The Yankees recently welcomed back Alex Rodriguez from the disabled list before their series against the Blue Jays, so look for the slugger in his normal spot in the middle of the lineup. The team is still dealing with some injuries though. Dustin Ackley is hurt, and looks bound for the DL, and Chasen Shreve is also down, recently having been sent to the DL with a shoulder injury. In his place, the Yankees have selected the contract of Richard Bleier, another left-handed reliever.

With Troy Tulowitzki heading to the DL due to a quad strain, Aaron Loup was recalled for the series against the Red Sox. Look for possibly another bullpen move ahead of Monday’s opener with the Yankees, as the relief corps was worked heavily in the last few games.

Keep an Eye On

Blue Jays Bullpen

The Jays bullpen continues to be a work in progress for manager John Gibbons. With the struggles of Drew Storen and injury to Brett Cecil, the Jays have been searching for another consistently effective late-inning reliever to join closer Roberto Osuna. Gavin Floyd was given the opportunity with his early season success, however, since being provided the chance he has struggled. In eight games, he has pitched 9.2 innings and allowed seven runs and three home runs (all in the last six innings). In the weekend series against the Red Sox, he came in with the game tied twice only to give up the lead. On the other hand, Joe Biagini continues to impress and is now being used more frequently in late inning situations. In 20 innings this season, he has an 0.90 ERA, opponent batting average of .212 and has stranded 80.8% of inherited runners, which has been a major problem overall for the Jays. Gibbons may decide to use Biagini, in combination with lefty Aaron Loup, more frequently to help get the ball to Osuna in the ninth.

The Offense

Yesterday’s struggles notwithstanding, the Blue Jays offense finally seemed to wake up a bit in the first two games of the Red Sox series. Russell Martin in particular seemed to be heating up:

Russell Martin, who had 1 extra base hit in his first 136 plate appearances, has 4 XBH in last 20 PA #BlueJays

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) May 30, 2016

Obviously 1 XBH in 126 PA is awful, but the four in his last twenty trips to the plate (with two home runs) is certainly nice to see. The return of Devon Travis is also clearly a huge boon, as the Blue Jays got next to nothing out of Ryan Goins. The warmer temperatures and the open roof may also have played a factor, but it will be interesting to see how they perform against the Yankees staff.

Yankees Banged Up

In addition to the players on (or headed to) the DL, the Yankees have a couple of veteran players who have been suffering from minor injuries of late.  First baseman, Mark Teixeira, has been suffering from neck spasms and has not started since last Tuesday, and Carlos Beltran left the game Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays due to tightness near his right scapula (shoulder). Beltran has been the key power hitter (12 home runs) in their lineup, so his availability is important. Both players are expected to play against the Jays, however, it will be worth noting if there will be any lingering effects impacting their play on the field and at the plate. It wouldn’t be surprising if Yankee manager Joe Girardi rests one of both of them at least one game in the series, especially Beltran due to the turf in the outfield.

Yanees Bullpen

In direct contrast to the Blue Jays, the Yankees bullpen is absolutely dominant in the late innings; Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman are a nightmare for opponents and are almost unhittable. In 53.1 innings, they have allowed 33 hits and seven walks while striking out 99! If the Yankees are leading late, it’s almost a forgone conclusion that they’ll be leading when the game is done, too.

Probable Lineup

Yankees	Blue Jays
1 Jacoby Ellsbury – CF	1 Jose Bautista – RF
2 Brett Gardner – LF	2 Josh Donaldson – 3B
3 Carlos Beltran – RF	3 Edwin Encarnacion – DH
4 Brian McCann – C	4 Michael Saunders – LF
5 Mark Teixiera – 1B	5 Justin Smoak – 1B
6 Alex Rodriguez – DH	6 Russell Martin – C
7 Starlin Castro – 2B	7 Devon Travis – 2B
8 Chase Headley – 3B	8 Kevin Pillar – CF
9 Didi Gregorius – SS	9 Darwin Barney – SS

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

The Jays currently sit in third in the American League East, five games out of first, 3.5 games out of a wild card spot and have a .500 record.  As June begins, it is important that this team continues to build on its recent success and finally move above the .500 record permanently. Another series win against a divisional foe would be a great way to start.

Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports