BP Toronto’s Bold Predictions for 2016

It’s that time again! A time of year when all of us here at BP Toronto dust off our crystal balls and attempt to predict the future of the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays. We have a full roster of contributors this year, so you will get your fill of prognostication. Andrew Arnold, Chris Sherwin, Dave Church, Eric Mercer, Gideon Turk, Greg Wisniewski, Jenn Smith, Joshua Howsam, Kyle Matte, Matt Gwin, Michael Bradburn, Nick Dika, Steven McEwen, and Tammy Rainey have all decided to put their reputations on the line this year.

Below you will see each person’s picks and thoughts in eight different categories. The pick will be in bold and the accompanying thoughts are italicized. Have any qualms? questions? comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below.

Record in 2016

Andrew – 90-72 – They stay the healthiest, and finish as the only playoff team in the East.
Chris – 91-71 - Back-to-back division champs!
Dave – 89-73 – The Jays should be in the hunt, but won’t get way ahead with Boston and Tampa looming.
Eric – 95-67 – Jays win the division by a wide margin over the lackluster Sox.
Gideon – 93-70 - Game 163 is going to be nice.
Greg – 89-73 - Winning 90 was clearly an aberration. History doesn’t lie.
Jenn – 95-67 – The Jays will defend their title as AL East Champions.
Joshua – 89-73 – Jays win a tight division by two games.
Kyle – 92-70 – Narrowly repeat as AL East champs in a hyper-competitive division.
Matt – 88-74 – This 2016 team is better than where they started last season, but worse than where they finished.
Michael – 91-71 – First in the AL East ahead of the 88-win Boston Red Sox.
Nick – 85-77 –  With the tooled up Red Sox and no easy wins in the division, it’ll be a struggle.
Steven – 92-70 – Every team in the AL East has holes, the Jays will just find a way past theirs.
Tammy – 100-62 – Simply put, I don’t think any other AL team is even close to being as good as the Jays.

Best Position Player

Andrew – Josh Donaldson – What?  You were expecting someone else?
Chris – Josh Donaldson – He may not repeat his MVP season, but he’ll be in the mix come award time.
Dave – Josh Donaldson – Reigning MVP in his prime. Let’s not overthink it.
Eric – Josh Donaldson – Back-to-back MVP’s. Sorry Mike Trout.
Gideon – Josh Donaldson – There’s no other option for this answer.
Greg – Josh Donaldson – I’d like to be clever here,  but he’s coming off 3 MVP calibre seasons in a row.
Jenn – Josh Donaldson – You just can’t stop the rain – or the reigning MVP.
Joshua – Troy Tulowitzki – The Jays will have an MVP candidate on the left-side again, but this year it’ll be at SS.
Kyle – Josh Donaldson – Anyone but the MVP is just someone trying to be cute.
Matt – Josh Donaldson – It’ll be hard to beat the reigning MVP/viking extraordinaire.
Michael – Josh Donaldson – I was trying really hard not to pick him, but…
Nick – Troy Tulowitzki – We are reminded good Tulo really is. Only thing he hurts this year is Boston’s playoff chances.
Steven – Josh Donaldson –  Can you think of it being anyone else honestly?
Tammy – Troy Tulowitzki – He’s going to stay healthy and dominate.

Best Pitcher

Andrew – Marcus Stroman – I picked Hutchison last year, so you know you can trust me on opening day starters.
Chris – Marcus Stroman – Stroman will continue to silence the doubters and put up a 200 inning, 3.00 ERA season.
Dave – Marcus Stroman – The best pitcher on the team by a mile. At this point, it’s difficult to doubt his drive or his talent.
Eric – Aaron Sanchez – Will blow expectations out of the water; his command will be sharp all season.
Gideon – Marcus Stroman – Strotember was fun, but Strapril, Stray, Strune, Struly, and Strogust are going to be even better.
Greg – Marcus Stroman – He has 80 grade #want.
Jenn - Aaron Sanchez – His new-found command looks legit – and we couldn’t all pick Stroman.
Joshua – Aaron Sanchez - Conventional wisdom says Stroman, but I’m all in on Aaron.
Kyle – Marcus Stroman – 200+ innings and a few Cy Young votes to boot.
Matt – J.A. Happ – When he was at his best last season, Happ was better than any Jays pitcher we’ve seen in a long time.
Michael – Marcus Stroman – I’d love to pick anyone else, but uh…
Nick – Roberto Osuna – This year the 21 year old makes us even more frustrated that he doesn’t want to be a starter.
Steven – Aaron Sanchez – Sanchez can gain A.J. Burnett’s control, and Sanchez’s pure stuff might be even better.
Tammy – Marcus Stroman – Sanchez will challenge for this claim, but I can’t go against Marcus.

Breakout Player of the Year

Andrew – Justin Smoak – Will finally fulfill his promise and become a solid, pun-worthy, starting first baseman
Chris – Aaron Sanchez – He’ll put up a solid No. 3 starter performance before being moved to the pen. Sound familiar?
Dave – Aaron Sanchez – After a fantastic spring, and by moving into a larger role this season, Sanchez makes the leap.
Eric – Michael Saunders – He will produce career highs in homers (>20) and hits (>125) while playing more than 120 games.
Gideon – Kevin Pillar – Hard to breakout even more, but the bat is going to take a huge step forward with his new mechanics.
Greg – Dalton Pompey – When Kevin Pillar can’t duplicate 2015 at the plate, Pompey is ready and willing.
Jenn – Pat Venditte – He pitched well enough this spring to suggest he’s more than just a one-trick pony.
Joshua – Edwin Encarnacion – He’ll hit a ball so hard that it “breaks” the “out” sign on the digital scoreboard.
Kyle – Aaron Sanchez – He’s a competent changeup away from being terrifying.
Matt – Dalton Pompey – He may not get the chance to prove it, but he’s still got the on-base and defensive chops.
Michael – Kevin Pillar - Last year was probably his breakout, but imagine a leadoff man with an OBP of .330 and 30+ steals.
Nick – The Other Sanchez – Tony Sanchez is a revelation as the backup C – a guy who won’t kill you on offense or defense. 
Steven – Ryan Goins – Goins has a fantastic swing and has some decent power in his bat; improved approach will lead to results.
Tammy – Michael Saunders – He’s good when he can play, and he’s going to actually stay healthy for a full season.

Comeback Player of the Year

Andrew – Aaron Loup – Pitched much better than his surface stats suggested; should return to form.
Chris – Michael Saunders – Saunders will stay healthy for the first time ever.
Dave – Michael Saunders – Saunders is the pick here mostly by default. Hard to go anywhere but up after last year.
Eric – Troy Tulowitzki – Is this cheating? Wasn’t great as a Jay, but new leg kick will do wonders for his offense.
Gideon – Devon Travis – Maybe not ‘of the year,’ but definitely for the months of June through September!
Greg – Michael Saunders – I could go with a certain pitcher, but two Canadian Blue Jay All-Stars would be pretty cool.
Jenn – Michael Saunders – After appearing in just nine games last season, Saunders will provide both power and solid defense.
Joshua – Gavin Floyd – Pitching out of the pen, Floyd will miraculously stay healthy for a full year and flourish.
Kyle – Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo’s going to push Donaldson for the title of “Best Jay,” and it’s going to be spectacular.
Matt – Aaron Loup - If he ever gets back from his injury, he’ll be the superstar lefty relieverthat we remember.
Michael – Drew Hutchison - I can’t quit you.
Nick – Drew Hutchison – “Don’t Call It a Comeback!” Hutch provides slightly above league-average production on the cheap.
Steven – Michael Saunders – Kid Canuck will roar back with a passion, combining the power and speed fans expected last year.
Tammy – Michael Saunders – Kinda have to go with this one, right? I don’t count Stroman since he came back last year.

Biggest Bust

Andrew – Ace – Now a 15 year veteran, this once elite mascot is sure to see some decline in his production.
Chris – Kevin Pillar – Pillar is not the four win player he was in  2015; expect defensive regression.
Dave – Kevin Pillar – Weighty expectations on defense and the leadoff spot on offense will  proved to be too much.
Eric – Kevin Pillar – Expectations are high and I don’t think his bat will play at the top of the order. Defense will regress.
Gideon – Troy Tulowitzki – Injuries are the worst.
Greg – Drew Storen – Relievers, man, you never know.
Jenn – Kevin Pillar – Defensively, he’ll be stellar. As a leadoff hitter….not so much.
Joshua - Jesse Chavez – By midseason, Chavez will become a pure long man, long since passed on by Floyd/Biagini.
Kyle – Chris Colabello – ColaBABIP has to end at some point, right?
Matt – Kevin Pillar – He thrived on low expectations; now the expectations are high and it’ll be hard to repeat.
Michael – Marco Estrada – Even if he did make adjustments, can those adjustments really continue working so effectively?
Nick – R.A. Dickey – Even knuckleballers can’t pitch forever. Dickey is getting to an age where guys start to decline/get hurt.
Steven – Marcus Stroman – I’m not predicting a 6.00 ERA, but I’m sure many would consider a 3.60 ERA or so disappointing.
Tammy – Ryan Goins – I’ll pick Goins just on the basis that expectations in some quarters being too high.

Key to 2016 Success

Andrew – Depth – This is team has a legitimate back-up at every position, and plenty of rotation options.
Chris – Pitching Depth – I loved the focus on adding to the pitching staff. No more AAA lifers making spot starts.
Dave – Starting Pitching – The Jays will score all the runs; they just need to prevent them as well.
Eric – Starter Health – If the Jays have decent arms who can soak up innings, the offense will take care of the rest.
Gideon – Pitching Depth – As long as the Scott Copelands of the world don’t make any starts for this team, they should be fine.
Greg – All the Runs – More opposing pitcher abuse plus some average Jays pitching will mean a rise to the top of a tight division.
Jenn – Starting Rotation – As long as the rotation doesn’t implode and overtax the pen, this lineup ought to bludgeon opponents.
Joshua – Marco Estrada – If he pitches like a #2-3 starter again instead of a #4-5, the Jays will be in great shape.
Kyle – Pitching Command – Toronto had the 3rd lowest walk rate in 2015; this pitching staff needs to try and replicate that.
Matt – Troy Tulowitzki – If he’s healthy and good, he’s a 7 WARP player. If he’s not, oh boy.
Michael – Pitching Depth – A healthy, 200 innings from Stroman is a lot to count on. The depth Atkins acquired will be tested.
Nick – Depth and Taxes – Hopefully spreading our worthless dollars around on several free agents was the right thing to do.
Steven – Defense – The Blue Jays are going to have a weak contact-heavy rotation, which means many balls in play.
Tammy – The Rotation – There are questions in the pen, but it’s the starters who will determine how far this team goes.

One Bold Prediction

Andrew- Yale-educated Craig Breslow tells Stroman that the size of one’s heart is in fact proportional to one’s height. Benches clear.
Chris – Josh Donaldson’s hair will become the 2016 version of  ‘The Rachel.’
Dave – Aaron Sanchez will lead the team in wins (until September).
Eric – Buck Martinez miraculously pronounces everyone’s names correctly. Pat Tabler stops describing players as ‘strong.’
Gideon – Does Gavin Floyd winning the Cy Young Award count?
Greg – Devon Travis returns in mid May and hits .400 for the rest of the season, falling just short of qualifying for the batting title.
Jenn – Aaron Sanchez will start in the postseason.
Joshua – In an effort to keep hitters guessing, Pat Venditte will become the first pitcher ever to throw with both hands at the same time.
Kyle – Troy Tulowitzki belts more dingers than Edwin Encarnacion.
Michael – Ryan Goins out-performs Andrelton Simmons by WARP.
Nick – Inspired by Venditte, Jose Bautista decides to switch hit this season. The resulting success leads him to ask for $35M/season.
Matt – Jesus Montero harnesses his namesake and outhits everyone else on the team.
Steven – Josh Thole will have real value just by letting Martin avoid the knuckleball.
Tammy – John Gibbons becomes the most beloved manager in baseball as the league gets a load of his personality.

There you have it. The BP Toronto Bold Predictions for 2016. Everything on this page will happen, even the stuff that contradicts the other stuff. We’re just that good.

Enjoy the 2016 season, Blue Jays fans

Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports