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	<title>Toronto &#187; J.A. Happ</title>
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		<title>The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 6 &#8211; 10)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/25/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-no-6-10/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jul 2017 10:59:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Bichette]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Twice a year over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron publishes a list of who, in his opinion, are the fifty most valuable trade assets in baseball. Cameron&#8217;s most recent update was published over the All-Star break earlier this month. Rather than simply listing the best players, he has attempted to blend past performance and future projection [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Twice a year over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron publishes a list of who, in his opinion, are the fifty most valuable trade assets in baseball. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-honorable-mentions/">Cameron&#8217;s most recent update</a> was published over the All-Star break earlier this month. Rather than simply listing the best players, he has attempted to blend past performance and future projection with age, team control, and remaining salary. It&#8217;s why, for example, Clayton Kershaw falls outside of the top fifty despite being undeniably the best pitcher in baseball. Not only does he have a salary prohibitive to all but a small handful of clubs, but his contract has a clause that allows him to opt-out at the conclusion of any season in which he&#8217;s traded. Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet. He&#8217;s nowhere near the most valuable to anyone but the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think Dave is the first to come up with the concept, but in terms of both execution and quality, it&#8217;s his that I look forward to most during the lulls of the baseball calendar. With that being said, it&#8217;s always a tad disappointing that we only get his insights and rankings of one, two, or maybe three Blue Jays players, if we&#8217;re lucky. This is why I&#8217;m going to tangent off Dave&#8217;s work, in an effort to offer you my perspective on the ten most valuable trade assets in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. If you have a differing view, please don&#8217;t be afraid to let me hear it.</p>
<p>With the trade deadline only a week away, there may be no more appropriate time for such an endeavour. Not only is the Blue Jays&#8217; 2017 season at a crossroads, but both their short- and long-term outlooks are as well. Few would argue that standing pat and hoping for better luck with the same aging roster seems untenable. Does the front office throw good prospects and money after bad players and try to make one final push, or begin unloading some legitimately valuable assets in an effort to avoid a Phillies-esque unrewarding collapse to the bottom of the division for the next five years?</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t meant to be the blueprint for a tear down or a shopping list for other teams; there are plenty of both floating around. The players that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are most likely to move aren&#8217;t going to shift the needle substantially either way. In fact, I&#8217;d be shocked if any of these ten get moved in the coming days. But just in case they do, here are, numerically, one man&#8217;s outlook of the Blue Jays&#8217; ten most valuable trade chips. Ten to six will be published this morning, with five to one released tomorrow.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><strong>#10: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70988">RHP Joe Biagini</a></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/10B-Biagini.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12598" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/10B-Biagini.png" alt="#10B Biagini" width="466" height="104" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">The tenth most valuable trade asset in the Toronto Blue Jays organization is right handed pitcher Joe Biagini. Since being claimed as a Rule 5 pick from San Francisco, the 27-year old has worked long relief, late innings, and even in the starting rotation. He certainly has the repertoire to stick in the rotation as his four-pitch mix has always graded exceptionally well by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/">Mike Sonne&#8217;s &#8220;Stuff&#8221; metric</a>. Biagini has produced modest strikeout rates, but offsets this with a remarkable proficiency for inducing groundballs. Belying his advanced age, Biagini has accumulated fewer than two years of service time and thus is under team control through 2021—including next season at league minimum. Biagini has the potential to build up significantly more trade value if he is able to settle into a role in the coming months and give teams a bit more certainty about what he is. The most recent rotation/bullpen swingman of similar quality with three-plus years of control to be traded was Drew Smyly, though he had affixed himself in the rotation by the time he was used as a piece in the <em>first</em> David Price trade back in 2014.</p>
<p>Biagini narrowly edged out catcher Russell Martin, who would have been the eleventh name on the list. Martin is still a top ten or fifteen catcher in baseball, but with the club owing him 40 million over the next two years, he&#8217;s paid like someone in the top three. Not only that, but he&#8217;ll be 35 years old in 2018 and nagging injuries have begun to take their toll on his game—particularly his arm behind the dish. Were the Blue Jays to pay his salary down, something that wasn&#8217;t considered in building the list, he could certainly net some interesting pieces. Look no further than the Astros acquisition of Brian McCann last winter, with the Yankees picking up 11 of the 34 million remaining on his deal in order to get a pair of intriguing prospects.</p>
<p><strong>#9: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100193">2B Devon Travis</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/9-Travis.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12582" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/9-Travis.png" alt="#9 Travis" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Devon Travis is 26-years old. He&#8217;s under control through 2020 with his first of three trips through arbitration on the horizon this winter. He capably plays an up-the-middle position, and is a career .292/.331/.462 hitter. This is the résumé of a player who should be one of the most valuable assets in any organization. Of course, as always, the story with Travis isn&#8217;t his performance on the field, but how much time he spends off it. In his brief career the second baseman has already been placed on the disabled list four times, two of which included subsequent transfers to the 60-day disabled list.</p>
<p>If he doesn&#8217;t play another game with the Blue Jays in 2017, shoulder and knee injuries will have limited him to 213 of a potential 486 regular season games since he made the Opening Day roster in 2015. Put another way: by the end of the season he&#8217;ll have accumulated three years of service time despite playing in just 44 percent of the team&#8217;s games over that time. Jedd Gyorko and Dee Gordon are second baseman with similar service time to have been moved in recent years, with the former landing Jon Jay in San Diego and the latter Andrew Heaney with the Dodgers, though neither has the tantalizing all-around upside that Travis possesses. With this kind of asset, the obvious most is to hold. You&#8217;d be selling for pennies on the dollar today, and a healthy Devon Travis is a piece that any team would love to build around tomorrow.</p>
<p><strong>#8: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">1B Justin Smoak</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/8-Smoak.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/8-Smoak.png" alt="#8 Smoak" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Of all of the players to receive consideration for the top ten, Justin Smoak&#8217;s value was the hardest to nail down. He was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft and a highly touted prospect in the years that followed, but the first seven years of his major league career &#8212; across three organizations &#8212; were a complete nightmare. He hit .223/.308/.392 over nearly <em>three thousand </em>plate appearances, and entering 2017, most Blue Jays fans were hoping the front office could find a way to bury him for as little money as possible. Yet incredibly here on July 23rd, he&#8217;s sporting a .302/.377/.598 slash line and is tied for fourth in all of baseball with 27 home runs.</p>
<p>Better than most others, Blue Jays fans have seen something like this before. Jose Bautista transformed himself from a league average bat to an elite slugger, and while most were skeptical of that production lasting in the long run, he&#8217;s proved us and everybody else but Alex Anthopoulos wrong. On the flip side, we also saw Michael Saunders hit .298/.372/.551 in the first half just last season, followed by a .178/.282/.357 second half, a .205/.257/.360 line with the Phillies in 2017, and his eventual release once they grew tired of him.</p>
<p>Thankfully, that much-maligned contract extension he received last summer gives the Blue Jays—and other teams—extra time to view Smoak with a dubious but intrigued eye without having to pre-emptively commit serious coin in support of this breakout. He&#8217;s under control for 2018 at a modest salary of $4.1 million, with a club option for 2019 that starts at $6.0 million and contains playing time incentives that could push it to $8.0 million. Smoak is the eighth most valuable player in the Blue Jays organization as of this summer, but not unlike the two men behind him, could shoot up the list if he can continue to prove that the last four months are more relevant than the previous seven years. If the Athletics move Yonder Alonso in the coming days, that would set the absolute floor for a Justin Smoak trade if the Blue Jays were to push him to market with the sustainability questions still lurking.</p>
<p><strong>#7: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107491">SS Bo Bichette</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/7-Bichette.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12584" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/7-Bichette.png" alt="#7 Bichette" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jay with the seventh most trade value is the first of two prospects to make the list, shortstop Bo Bichette. Bichette has taken the prospect world by storm this season, hitting nearly .400 with Single-A Lansing as a 19-year old, and ascending from the back end of the organization&#8217;s top ten to inside the top fifty in all of baseball (#29 on the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224">Baseball Prospectus</a> mid-season update; #44 on <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#YwyoFbAuhiRBP8uX.97">Baseball America&#8217;s</a> list).</p>
<p>Bichette is an exceptionally interesting prospect, as his ranking on both of those lists—and this one as well—is an attempt to find the balance between his immense upside and the legitimate concerns about how his swing will hold up against more advanced pitching. Some evaluators see him as a 6/6 bat and power guy, which at an up-the-middle position is an unbelievably valuable piece for any organization. There are others, however,  who see his fielding necessitating a move to third base and his bat wrap causing issues when he reaches the upper minors. Still, there are plenty of teams who would gamble on the former, and it&#8217;s why despite being in just the Florida State League he could be the main—or only—trade chip used to acquire a legitimate big league talent.</p>
<p>Last summer the Cubs used Gleyber Torres (BP midseason #34) to land Aroldis Chapman, and Cleveland sent Clint Frazier (BP Midseason #26) to the Yankees to land Andrew Miller. More recently, Blake Rutherford (BA Midseason #36) was sent to the Chicago White Sox as the centerpiece for a package of David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier. Each of those three prospects falls in the neighbourhood of Bichette&#8217;s current ranking, and provides comparables for the type of return he could potentially net.</p>
<p><strong>#6: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46084">LHP J.A. Happ</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/6-Happ.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12585" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/6-Happ.png" alt="#6 Happ" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>I went back-and-forth between Bichette and Happ on who should be six and who should be seven, and in reality, it probably is more of a 6A and 6B situation. Just last summer a pair of left handed starters with similar production and contract status were moved, with the Padres landing Anderson Espinosa for Drew Pomeranz and the Tampa Bay Rays receiving Lucius Fox (and Matt Duffy) for Matt Moore. Those returns aren&#8217;t dissimilar to the value most are placing on Bo Bichette today.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ will be 35-years old next season, but he&#8217;s yet to show any signs of age catching up to him. His average fastball velocity has remained steady at around 92 miles per hour for the last four seasons, and he ranks in the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=L&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2017&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=velo&amp;lim=200">upper third among left handed starters</a> by that metric. One potential drain on Happ&#8217;s value is that he&#8217;s only under contract for one more year after 2017, and while it&#8217;s certainly below market value given his performance the last three years, the 13 million he&#8217;s owed isn&#8217;t nothing to a team like Milwaukee or Pittsburgh trying to make a push.</p>
<p>Starting pitching is always in demand, but the type of that demand varies greatly between the summer and winter. Almost every team is looking to bolster their rotation in the offseason, but the market takes a bit of a shift at the trade deadline. The bubble teams may be salivating over someone like J.A. Happ, but the division leaders with plenty of heft at the front end of their rotation might be hesitant to give up a ton of value for someone who would be their fourth starter and might only make one start in the postseason. The Washington Nationals, for example, could see the Blue Jays lefty as a perfect plug for the fifth spot in their rotation over the next two months, but might barely use him come October behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/" title="The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 1 – 5)" target="_blank">Click here for the rest of the list</a> as we run from number five down to the most valuable player in the Blue Jays organization.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why J.A. Happ is Throwing His Changeup Faster to Succeed</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/22/why-j-a-happ-is-throwing-his-changeup-faster-to-succeed/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/22/why-j-a-happ-is-throwing-his-changeup-faster-to-succeed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jun 2017 11:14:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11976</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How might it feel to be one of Ray Searage&#8217;s &#8216;projects&#8217;? On the one hand you&#8217;re no longer mediocre, and that means money—a lot of money—for you. On the other hand, even though you&#8217;re the one dominating, most of the credit is going to Searage. All day long it&#8217;s Searage this, Searage that. As one of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How might it feel to be one of Ray Searage&#8217;s &#8216;projects&#8217;? On the one hand you&#8217;re no longer mediocre, and that means money—a lot of money—for you. On the other hand, even though you&#8217;re the one dominating, most of the <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/7/9464865/j-a-happ-pirates-the-cult-of-ray-searage-fastball">credit</a> is going to Searage. All day long it&#8217;s <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/104313906/pirates-pitching-coach-ray-searage-out-to-revive-careers-of-clayton-richard-and-radhames-liz/">Searage this</a>, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/166757902/ray-searage-is-the-pirates-pitcher-whisperer/">Searage that</a>.</p>
<p>As one of Searage&#8217;s &#8216;projects&#8217;, J.A. Happ undoubtedly owes a lot of his success to the Pirates&#8217; pitching coach for revamping his fastball. Our own Joshua Howsam wrote about that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/">last season</a>. But this season, Happ has been experimenting with a new weapon that nobody else can take credit for.</p>
<p>Happ has thrown 111 change ups so far this season with an average velocity 86.4 MPH. That&#8217;s a full three ticks harder than he threw his change last season, and way above his career average of 82.8 MPH. Digging into the distribution of that sample, the velocity bump can be attributed to both a higher floor and a higher ceiling.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/happ-velo-dist.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-11985" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/happ-velo-dist-1024x307.jpg" alt="happ velo dist" width="750" height="225" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>He&#8217;s also upped his usage rate, selecting the pitch a career-high 17.3 percent of the time. He&#8217;s never exceeded a 10 percent usage rate over a whole season, and is already close to eclipsing his total change up count from last year (194).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Brooksbaseball-Chart-2.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-11979" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Brooksbaseball-Chart-2-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (2)" width="375" height="250" /></a></p>
<p>The results have been dramatic. The hard change has limited batters to a .459 OPS. To put that in context, of all the pitchers who have thrown over 100 change ups this season, Happ&#8217;s .459 OPS is the 7th-lowest mark, behind guys like Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Carrasco.</p>
<p>When he throws the hard change, he&#8217;s getting a strike 67 percent of the time due to a career-best 45 percent chase rate and a career-best 17 percent swinging strike rate. To put that in context, of all the pitchers who have thrown over 100 change ups this season, only Johnny Cueto has a higher chase rate.</p>
<p>It also doesn&#8217;t hurt that it looks <a href="https://streamable.com/zc2po" target="_blank">filthy</a>.</p>
<div style="width: 640px; " class="wp-video"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');</script><![endif]-->
<video class="wp-video-shortcode" id="video-11976-1" width="640" height="360" preload="metadata" controls="controls"><source type="video/mp4" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/zc2po_1.mp4?_=1" /><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/zc2po_1.mp4">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/zc2po_1.mp4</a></video></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This all sounds great, but you&#8217;re probably asking the same question I did right about now. Isn&#8217;t the whole point of an off-speed pitch to look the same but have a significant difference in velocity from the fastball? Isn&#8217;t that what makes Marco Estrada so successful? Happ&#8217;s career fastball-change up velocity differential is around 8.0 MPH. The lowest it&#8217;s ever been is 7.1 MPH in 2015. Right now it&#8217;s at 6.2 MPH.</p>
<p>So what&#8217;s going on here? Since we can&#8217;t just ask J.A. Happ for the answer, let&#8217;s turn to the next best thing &#8211; Houston Astros ace Lance McCullers. You could call McCullers the poster-child of the hard change movement; his career average velocity sits at 89 MPH. He once dialed it up to 96.3 MPH, which is objectively unfair.</p>
<p>Fangraphs&#8217; David Laurila interviewed him <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lance-mccullers-on-spin-angles-and-embarrassing-batters/">last June</a> and asked him about blurring the line between a change and a two-seam fastball.</p>
<p><em>&#8220;The old school thinking of a changeup is that it has to be 8-10 mph off the fastball, and it needs to look like a fastball. That’s the goal. Make it look like a fastball, but slower.<br />
</em><br />
<em>“The new-day-and-age changeup is more, ‘Throw with aggression; make it spin and kind of fall off the table.’ It’s not a pitch to get people off your fastball anymore. It’s a pitch to try to dominate left-handed hitters with, and to dominate guys who have a tough time with sinkers.&#8221;<br />
</em><br />
According to McCullers, unless you can replicate your four-seam mechanics flawlessly, hitters are discerning enough to tee off the change no matter what the velocity differential is.</p>
<p><em>“It’s not about slower pitches. There are plenty of hitters who can adjust to speed differential if they can tell it’s coming. If you’re one of those special guys, like Mike Morin for the Angels, who can have the same arm action and throw a 70-mph changeup, or a Scott Kazmir… more power to you. But I’m not that guy. My changeup is at its best when I rear back and throw it, and let the action dictate how the batter reacts.”<br />
</em><br />
The change has traditionally been a strategy pitch; something to throw in the middle of an at-bat once you&#8217;ve got the batter sitting fastball. For McCullers—and other hard change guys like Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Danny Salazar, and now Happ—the change can be a finishing pitch.</p>
<p><em>“If it’s a punch-out situation, I’m going to throw it harder. I’m going to throw it 89-91, sometimes 92. The best changeup I threw all of last year was to Melky Cabrera and it was 94. It had the best movement, the best off-the-table kind of tailing action, and I got a great swing and miss on it.&#8221;</em><br />
I went out and found a clip of that 94 MPH change to whiff Cabrera. You tell me if this is a strikeout pitch or not.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="fr" dir="ltr">Lance McCullers, 94mph Changeup (from June 2015). <a href="https://t.co/btRecWSoeT">pic.twitter.com/btRecWSoeT</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/873203109132214272">June 9, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Happ&#8217;s been lights out over his last two starts, and the hard change is a big reason why. He doesn&#8217;t have McCullers&#8217; freakish genetics, but even at 86 MPH his change up has been near un-hittable.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rangers 3; Toronto Holds on to Take 2-0 Series Lead</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/recap-blue-jays-5-rangers-3-toronto-holds-on-to-take-2-0-series-lead/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2016 21:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7327</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre. No one expected this afternoon’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>No one expected this afternoon’s game to be the laugher that Game one turned out to be and it most definitely wasn’t, with the Rangers mounting a late rally that had the Blue Jays use every high leverage reliever at their disposal to lock down the game.</p>
<p>For the second game in a row, the offence that had disappeared for most of September reappeared at Globe Life Park, providing the Jays’ pitching staff with a five run cushion, albeit in the most unexpected of ways. Unless you expected Kevin Pillar and Ezekiel Carrera to go yard off of Texas co-ace Yu Darvish, the former on a pitch that was closer to his eyeballs than it was the strike zone. More predictably, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion contributed home runs of their own.</p>
<p>Despite not being as dominant as he was throughout the course of the regular season, J.A. Happ was able to limit the Rangers to one run over five plus innings pitched. Happ racked up 84 pitches and surrendered nine hits but consistently worked his way out of jams with runners on to keep the Blue Jays in control before handing the ball over to the bullpen.</p>
<p>The Rangers have become known for mounting late season comebacks this season and as John Gibbons started to dip into his bullpen it looked for a moment as if they may be ready to author another one this afternoon. The Rangers’ propensity for late inning comebacks and the Blue Jays’ sometimes shaky (and currently ailing) bullpen made for a nerve-racking ending to a hardly fought game.</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano, entered the game in the eighth inning with a three-run lead, but after surrendering a leadoff double and walk around an Elvis Andrus fly ball, he was struck in the back of the head/neck. It is unclear exactly where the ball struck the Jays’ lefty, but it was reported by <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottyMacThinks/status/784495142891687937" target="_blank">TSN’s Scott MacArthur</a> that he was taken to a local hospital. Fingers crossed that Liriano is alright and that the move is only precautionary.</p>
<p>The horrific play ended with Rangers on the corners and a 5-3 Blue Jays’ lead. This made John Gibbons call on Roberto Osuna &#8211; who left Tuesday’s Wild Card game with a shoulder issue of his own &#8211; in order to preserve the Blue Jays’ lead.</p>
<p>Osuna was absolutely fantastic and locked things down for a five-out save, throwing 31 pitches in the process.</p>
<p>Other Notes:</p>
<h4>Sportsmanlike Conduct</h4>
<p>One of the more civil exchanges that we’ve witnessed between these two baseball teams occurred in the bottom of the third inning this afternoon at Globe Life Park. When Russell Martin discarded his mask while making a play on a pop up in foul territory, Rougned Odor picked it up and returned Martin his mask after the play. With all of the bad blood, bad fans and stupid behavior that surrounds the Jays/Rangers rivalry, it’s nice to see that these teams and players can indeed be civil with each other.</p>
<h4><strong>Injuries Mounting</strong></h4>
<p>Devon Travis was scratched minutes before the game with what is being described as “right knee irritation”. Roberto Osuna had to come out of the game on Tuesday and Francisco Liriano today. Joaquin Benoit is inactive and Josh Donaldson is likely still battling his hip injury, amongst other things. Thankfully, pitching with a herniated disk in his back seems to be absolutely no problem for Marco Estrada, but in any case, the Blue Jays are battling injuries to many of their key contributors. Hopefully Liriano is okay, and the travel day gives the rest of the ailing Jays an opportunity to rest and recover, as much as they possibly can.</p>
<h4><strong>Controversial Replay Call Goes Toronto’s Way</strong></h4>
<p>Ian Desmond&#8217;s decision to break for home after hesitating momentarily on an Adrian Beltre ground ball with one out in the seventh inning resulted in as close a play as you will ever see. While Desmond may have beat the tag at home (the umpires deemed replay evidence inconclusive), his risky decision cost the Rangers. With the infield back and a four run lead, the Blue Jays were conceding the run. Desmond’s initial hesitation hurt the Rangers and allowed the Blue Jays to sustain their four-run cushion heading into the eighth inning.</p>
<h4><strong>What it Means Going Forward</strong></h4>
<p>Game three of the ALDS goes Sunday night in Toronto, with Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA) taking on Colby Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA). Toronto heads home with a 2-0 stranglehold on the series, but we don’t have to look too far back to see how easily that type of lead can vanish. Anything can happen in a five-game series and don’t be surprised if and when it does.</p>
<p>While it might feel like the right time to start giving it to the Rangers and their fans, the job isn&#8217;t done just yet. The always-wise Tao of Steib reminds us:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There are some boastful witticisms I&#39;d like to share, but I recall that those guys won game 1 last year.</p>
<p>&mdash; Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb/status/784191789502701568">October 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s as true today as it was yesterday.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sport</em></p>
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		<title>How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball&#8217;s Best</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 16:23:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mariners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pirates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6117</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[J.A. Happ has been nothing short of a revelation in 2016. He currently has a strikeout rate of 22.2 percentage on the season (32.4 percent since the start of July), sits second in major league baseball with 17 wins, and has an ERA that has hovered between 2.80 and 3.20 all year long. All of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>J.A. Happ has been nothing short of a revelation in 2016. He currently has a strikeout rate of 22.2 percentage on the season (32.4 percent since the start of July), sits second in major league baseball with 17 wins, and has an ERA that has hovered between 2.80 and 3.20 all year long. All of those would be career bests in seasons during which Happ was a full-time starter. He has unquestionably been one of the better pitchers in the American League. The question that seems to be on everybody’s mind is “how?”</p>
<p>Like Marco Estrada last year (and continuing into this season), J.A. Happ is succeeding to an insane degree despite stuff that, on the surface, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-10/" target="_blank">seems decidely mediocre</a>. His fastball has league average velocity (approx 92 mph), and none of his offspeed pitches have any sort of extreme break or speed. So again, how is he getting hitters out with such extreme ease?</p>
<p>The basic answer is that his stuff isn’t quite as mediocre as it looks on the aggregate. The better answer involves a bit more nuance. He is constantly figuring out better ways to use that stuff, and becoming more effective every time. In fact, despite many (includng me recently) assuming he has just gone back to his Pittsburgh ways, we are actually looking at yet another new incarnation of Mr. Happ: J.A. Happ 4.0. Let us dive into the mystery that is this lanky lefthander&#8217;s success.</p>
<p>Considering the way he pitches, any discussion on J.A. Happ has to begin with his fastball. As you may have seen elsewhere, Happ has become increasingly reliant on the fourseam fastball as the season has gone on, which follows a trend from his time last year with the Pirates.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-30.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6118" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-30.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (30)" width="970" height="319" /></a></p>
<p>The spike in fourseams has directly coincided with a spike in his strikeout rate, which has led many to believe it is the sole cause for Happ’s current bat-missing ways. This is certainly backed up by the numbers; among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fourseam fastballs, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=ws&amp;lim=500" target="_blank">J.A. Happ sits third in miss rate</a> on the pitch, at 28.8 percent of swings. That rises to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=ws&amp;lim=1000" target="_blank">number one in all of baseball</a> if you raise the minimum to 1000 fourseam fastballs. That’s pretty impressive. However, this whiff rate also happens to be an extreme outlier:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-26.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6119" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-26.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (26)" width="483" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>In the last three years, Happ has never topped 20 percent. Even if we just filter out his time with the Pirates, he was still just missing bats 21 percent of the time, and that included facing opposing pitchers. As a result, merely throwing more fourseam fastballs isn’t the main reason for the uptick in strikeouts. However, when we put the rest of Happ&#8217;s offerings back into the mix, the picture gets a little bit clearer.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-22.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6122" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-22.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (22)" width="949" height="323" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Happ may have started throwing a lot more fourseamers, but unlike last year, he is still throwing plenty of sinkers as well. Of course, simply throwing more sinkers doesn&#8217;t explain a nearly 50 percent increase in whiff rate. In order to understand fully <em>why</em> increased sinker usage is leading to more swings and misses on the fourseamer, we must first take a quick stop in the past and look at a mechanical change Happ made during his first time in Toronto. Before the 2014 season, the Blue Jays dropped J.A. Happ’s arm slot in an effort to help him get more movement on his fastball, as graphs explain.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-25.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6120" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-25.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (25)" width="953" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>The team lowered Happ&#8217;s release point by nearly half a foot, and he also began releasing farther away from his body (see tables above). The attempt definitely worked, as Happ’s fastball immediately started getting more shape. His two seamer started dropping over two inches more and getting an inch of extra run. The fourseamer still stayed up &#8211; only dropping an extra inch &#8211; but also picked up that inch of run. In the last two years, however, Happ has taken that to the extreme:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-28.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6121" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-28.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (28)" width="951" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>Happ is now getting an inch of extra run on the fourseamer, while the pitch is still staying up at the same high rate. The two-seamer is the big winner, though, having taken a gigantic step forward. The offering is now getting <em>another</em> two full inches of extra drop, while still maintaining the 9.5” of arm side run. That horizontal break places him in the top 10 of all pitchers, ahead of even Aaron Sanchez.</p>
<p>The tailing action is certainly nice, but what is most important is that extra sink. By adding those two inches to the two-seamer, Happ is now seeing a full 5” difference in vertical break between his fourseamer and his sinker. That places him number one in all of baseball in break difference among pitchers who threw at least 500 of each pitch.</p>
<p>That is why the increased sinker usage matters. With Pittsburgh, the <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-believe-blue-jays-j-a-happ/" target="_blank">improved command and consistency</a> were enough to get outs. <em>This year</em>, batters are constantly being forced to adjust to two pitches that come in at essentially the same velocity (the difference in speed is less than one mile per hour), but with a bigger difference in how they move than any other pitcher in baseball. As a result, the fourseam has the elevated whiff rate; batters swing under it expecting it to drop like the sinker. When Happ uses both fastballs together, he succeeds.</p>
<p>Clearly, the fastballs are far better than average velocity alone would suggest. However, Happ still throws enough non-fastballs that we need to look at them as well. The actual pitches themselves show very little difference from this year to last. In fact, the only one with a noticeable change in shape or movement is the slider, as it has become much more of a cut fastball. But it’s not the break that matters here; we’re going to look at how he is using them. If you remember <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">the roto reviews</a> that we were doing earlier in the season, you may have seen us mention on multiple occasions just how unpredictable Happ had been. It was impossible to tell from one start to the next just what he would throw. One day it would be more sinkers and curveballs, the next it would be fourseamers and changeups, or sliders and curveballs. There really was no way to guess what version of Happ you were going to see. As such, he was able to succeed by getting weak contact instead of swings and misses.</p>
<p>He did something similar in Seattle at the outset of last year as well, and was looking like an All-Star. Then for some reason he decided to stop throwing sinkers at all in mid-May, and started getting hit. At least he was still mixing his breaking balls, though. By the time he became fastball happy in Pittsburgh, there was a very clear hierarchy of Happ&#8217;s off-speed stuff. Compare that to the current version of fourseam-heavy Happ (start vs Colorado was the first time Happ went over 50 percent fourseamers):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-17.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6123" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-17.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (17)" width="954" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>At no point with Pittsburgh did Happ throw more changeups than curveballs, and only twice was the slider not his <em>clear</em> go to breaking ball. He was always hovering around ten percent usage with the curveball and sat at close to five percent usage with the changeup. With the Blue Jays, there is no pattern at all. In fact, every single pitch has a usage range of over ten percentage points. Even with the increased fastball usage, hitters <em>still</em> can’t know what’s coming from one pitch to the next.</p>
<p>This change in patterns just so happens to apply to <em>where</em> Happ throws the ball, as well (Pirates numbers on the left):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2015-locations.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6125" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2015-locations.png" alt="2015 locations" width="699" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>From the looks of that grid, J.A. Happ is working down in the zone much more often than in his brief stint with the Pirates. Combined with the increased sinker usage, this is a good reason for a slight uptick in his overall groundball rate, and it makes it hard for hitters to elevate the ball for extra bases. This is where the unpredictability comes in: When Happ gets to two strikes, he works up in the zone with his fastball instead (see left grid below). In 2015, that would look just like every other fastball he was throwing. Now it’s coming in on a completely different plane. This is forcing hitters to react to a pitch in a location they&#8217;re not seeing at other points in the at-bat. That leads to strikeouts. In addition, while hitters have to be aware of that high fastball, Happ also works down in the zone with all his other offerings (see right grid below). By forcing the hitters to cover the entire stike zone, Happ makes all of his pitches pitches play up. As a result, every single pitch <a href="http://bit.ly/2bCdPlg" target="_blank">has an elevated whiff rate</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2016-fastballs.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6126" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2016-fastballs.png" alt="2016 fastballs" width="699" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>To recap, we have a pitcher using his supreme fastball variance to generate strikeouts and groundballs for the first time, an unpredictable off-speed usage to create overall weak contact, and a pitcher who works down in the zone (avoiding power), except for when he elevates for a strikeout.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ has taken what he learned with the Pirates, and along with Russ Martin and Pete Walker, evolved it over the course of this season to turn himself into one of the elite pitchers in the game. He could’ve just continued throwing the way he did in Pittsburgh that dominated the NL Central, but he wasn’t satisfied with that. And then could&#8217;ve kept up the way he was mowing down the AL East in the early parts of this season, but he wasn’t satisfied with that either. He keeps adjusting. That, above all else, is why I believe in J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>I can’t wait to see the next version.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 5, Blue Jays 3; J.A.&#8217;s Not Happ-y And He Knows It</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/30/recap-orioles-5-blue-jays-3-j-a-s-not-happ-y-and-he-knows-it/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:29:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ubaldo Jimenez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders had two extra base hits, which scored two of the Jays&#8217; three runs of the game. Given that Saunders had just two other multi extra base hit games over the last two months, this was a nice change.</p>
<p>With that said, things weren&#8217;t entirely peachy for the Blue Jays, as one would imagine looking at the box score. J.A. Happ was not only unable to put up a win and tie Rick Porcello for the league lead in the category, he also may have put up his worst start of the season. With six hits, two home runs, and two walks off of him over 6 1/3 innings of work, it&#8217;s needless to say that Happ struggled against the Orioles offence.</p>
<p>However, it isn&#8217;t the hits or home run against totals that are most suprising; it&#8217;s the lack of strikeouts. Since his &#8216;rebirth&#8217;, J.A. Happ had put up nine straight starts of five or more strikeouts. On Tuesday, he put up three strikeouts, which puts him more in line with his early season ways. It&#8217;s especially interesting because it seemed like people were just starting to accept the new strikeout happy Happ as the norm. Strikeout Happ may still be the norm&#8230;but at least now there is reason for pause.</p>
<p>All things considered, the Orioles have a relatively strong offence. So, worrying too much about one poor start from J.A. Happ is unwarranted. But, the Jays will need to keep an eye on him down the stretch, as he works towards unprecedented (for him) innings totals, and continues to pitch in to October *crosses fingers*.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s top play of the game came via a Matt Wieters off Blue Jays&#8217; reliever Jason Grilli in the 8th inning. It represents the first homer that Grilli has given up in August, and likely clears him of grabbing one homerless month this season. Wieters&#8217; homer increased the Orioles chances of winning by 38%, and the two runs that it added were all that Baltimore needed to etch out a win.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s bottom play of the game came when Russell Martin grounded in to a double play in the first inning. &#8216;Twas a departure from Martin, as he&#8217;s almost put up a 1.000 OPS in August. The groundout came with one out and men on first and second, dropping the Jays&#8217; chances of winnings by 8.6%.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Wednesday&#8217;s game at 7:05 EST in Baltimore will decide the series. While not necessary to maintain first place in the East, it&#8217;d be nice if the Jays could hand a series loss to the Orioles. Although, even if a win doesn&#8217;t come on Wednesday, Jays fans can take solace in the fact that the team has <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">a 94.9% chance at making the playoffs</a>. Meanwhile, the Orioles are now down to 29.5%.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>J.A Happ: The Blue Jays&#8217; Unsung Hero</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/22/j-a-happ-blue-jays-unsung-hero/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Aug 2016 11:29:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays have had many &#8220;aces&#8221; throughout the course of the 2016 season. Prior to the season&#8217;s beginning, everyone had Marcus Stroman penciled in as the club’s top man. Stroman had yet to complete a full season in the MLB, but after last season’s heroic comeback and performance in the post season, everyone [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays have had many &#8220;aces&#8221; throughout the course of the 2016 season. Prior to the season&#8217;s beginning, everyone had Marcus Stroman penciled in as the club’s top man. Stroman had yet to complete a full season in the MLB, but after last season’s heroic comeback and performance in the post season, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-discovered-roy-halladays-sinker/" target="_blank">everyone was ready to crown Stroman the next Roy Halladay</a>. Stroman came out of the gate exceptionally slow and it hasn’t been until recently that he has turned on the jets and shown sustained success.</p>
<p>In the early portion of the season, however, the Jays had multiple starters step up and fill the void; namely Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada, Toronto’s two all-star pitchers. Sanchez, who was uncertain of even making the rotation, and Estrada, who has shown that 2015 was no fluke, put the rotation on their back and carried the brunt of the load for the first half. Marco has potentially put too much on his back (okay, a terrible pun); which has limited his effectiveness and ability to go deep into starts. Sanchez has been nothing short of brilliant all season long, even with the inordinate amount of drama and speculation regarding his future.</p>
<p>Lost in all of this has been J.A. Happ. No disrespect to J.A., but he is rather easy to forget. He doesn’t throw the ball in the upper-90s, he doesn’t have an insane wipeout slider that racks up loads of strikeouts; but he is a model for consistency. Consistency itself is not flashy. Most baseball fans would rather see Stephen Strasburg pitch because he <em>might </em>strikeout 15 guys, despite being nearly equally effective this season. I would imagine that most managers, and general managers alike, love what Happ brings to the table. Every five days you can count on J.A. to throw between six and seven innings and allow about two runs to score. Now let’s delve into <em>how </em>Happ has been so consistent throughout the season.</p>
<p>Despite Happ throwing the ball from the south-side of the mound, it makes no difference to him which side of the plate the batter stands on. This season righties have slashed .228/.288/.675, whereas lefties have hit .238/.304/.650. Even though the result is similar, the approach Happ implements is quite different. When facing a left handed batter, J.A. eliminates the use of his changeup and cutter, focusing primarily on executing with the fastball (fourseam and sinker) as well as the slider. Against righties, the mentality changes. Happ reduces the amount of fourseam fastballs he throws and replaces them primarily with changeups. These changeups will dive to outside part of the plate to righties. As a result, Happ has generated a groundball on 44% of changeups he throws to righties that are put into play. This is a clear cut sign of weak contact.</p>
<p>There are some Jays pitchers that seem to care if they are playing at Rogers Centre or on the road. To Mr. Consistency these issues are trivial. As one can expect, Happ performs as well at home as he does on the road. This is somewhat surprising as Happ does not rank near the top in ground ball percentage and Rogers Centre is a known launch pad. Having said this, Happ does display a sinker with some quality horizontal and vertical movement on it. His teammates, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, have put on a clinic for how to induce ground balls this season; and there is no better location to execute this strategy than in a hitter’s friendly park.</p>
<p>There is tremendous value in a pitcher that can provide 200 innings of work in a season, even if they are average of slightly below average. Not to poke fun of R.A. Dickey, but he hasn’t been stellar for the Jays since they acquired him, however, you can always count on him for 200+ innings. Barring any injuries, it appears Happ will throw in excess of 200 innings as he is currently at 150 with approximately eight or nine more starts to go. The major difference with Happ this season is the quality of innings that he is providing the Jays. I believe it would be a stretch to think that J.A. Happ is currently in the conversation of winning the AL Cy-Young but he is certainly in that second tier of pitchers. Consider that statement! This is a pitcher that when the club signed him in the offseason for three years, $36 million, no one really took note other than to say ‘Oh, we got J.A. Happ again…’</p>
<p>The front office deserves a shout out for believing in the <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/7/9464865/j-a-happ-pirates-the-cult-of-ray-searage-fastball" target="_blank">well-documented changes that Happ made toward the end of last season in Pittsburgh</a>. Many people were skeptical, questioning if Happ would improve the rotation, but here we are nearing the end of August and the Jays have the best rotation in the AL, largely helped by Happ’s contributions every five days. Am I alone in thinking that if the Jays found themselves in a wild card game, Happ might be the pitcher I want on the mound to get the win? After all, the man does have a MLB-leading 17 wins to his name thus far. Consistency pays off it seems, and Happ has been the unsung hero of the Jays team all season long.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Astros 1; If You&#8217;re Happ-Y and You Know It Win Fifteen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/recap-blue-jays-4-astros-1-if-youre-happ-y-and-you-know-it-win-fifteen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Aug 2016 03:23:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5183</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto and Houston wrapped up their four game series on Thursday night at Minute Maid Park with another low scoring affair.  The Blue Jays sent left-hander J.A. Happ to the mound to face Houston righty Mike Fiers. Similar to the other games in this series it would be the starters who dominated. Fiers went six innings, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto and Houston wrapped up their four game series on Thursday night at Minute Maid Park with another low scoring affair.  The Blue Jays sent left-hander J.A. Happ to the mound to face Houston righty Mike Fiers. Similar to the other games in this series it would be the starters who dominated. Fiers went six innings, struck out seven, gave up five hits and allowed two runs. He was his own worst enemy in the fifth, as he uncorked two wild pitches that helped lead to the second Blue Jays run. Happ also went six innings, as he gave up four hits and one walk while striking out six batters. He left with a 2-1 lead, in line for his 15th win of the season.</p>
<p>Toronto added on single runs in the eighth and ninth innings off of the Houston bullpen, and the Blue Jays combination of Benoit-Grilli-Osuna shut the door, pitching three scoreless innings to preserve the series win for the Blue Jays. With the win, Toronto moved into a virtual tie for first place in the American League East with the Baltimore Orioles, who lost tonight to the Texas Rangers 5-3.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game By WPA</h3>
<p>With the Blue Jays leading 2-0 and Happ having faced one over the minimum through four, the Astros got a lead off double by Evan Gattis to start the fifth. After retiring the next two batters, Tyler White collected his second hit of the game, a run scoring double to cut the lead to 2-1. This increased the win expectancy for Houston by 12.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game By WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the sixth, with the Jays leading 2-1, the Astros opened the inning with a walk and a single. One out later with runners on the corners, Carlos Correa grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and preserve the lead for Toronto. This lowered the win expectancy for Houston by 20.7 percentage points, and would be the closest the Astros would get to tying the game.</p>
<h3>Tulowitzki Returns</h3>
<p>After missing three games due to being hit by a pitch on his hand on Sunday, Troy Tulowitzki returned to the lineup for the finale in Houston. Manager John Gibbons had him bat seventh in the line up to ease him back into action. Tulowitzki hit the ball hard in two of his at bats, showing little effect of the injury he sustained. He went one for four with a single in this one.</p>
<h3>Encarnacion Does it Again</h3>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion hit a solo home run to lead off the top of the ninth to extend the lead for the Blue Jays to 4-1. This was his 30th home run of the season and his fifth consecutive season as a member of the Blue Jays. That is the second longest streak behind Carlos Delgado, who did it for eight consecutive seasons.</p>
<h3>Strikeouts Keep Coming</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays offense set a new Major League Baseball record with 61 strikeouts in a four game series and have had six straight games with 10 or more strikeouts. This is obviously a huge concern as putting the ball in plays allows for more opportunities for things to happen on the field without always needing a hit. An example of this happened in the first inning, when after a leadoff double by Devon Travis, the Jays were able to score the runner with two outs simply by putting the ball in play.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Toronto will wrap up the road trip with a stop in Kansas City on the weekend. The Blue Jays come into the series having won three series&#8217; in a row, while the Royals have lost 10 of their last 13 games. Game one will feature new Blue Jays starter Francisco Liriano (6-11, 5.46 ERA), acquired at the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Pirates, against right-hander Dillon Gee (3-5., 4.66 ERA), who is making a spot start for the Royals. First pitch is at 8:15 PM ET/7:15 PM CT.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 9, Orioles 1; Blue Jays Fly Past Orioles Into First</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/30/recap-blue-jays-9-orioles-1-blue-jays-fly-past-the-orioles-into-first/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jul 2016 20:29:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[This weekend series against the American League East divisional rivals Baltimore Orioles has brought with it the first sense of pennant race fever to Toronto this season. The Jays and Orioles were separated by half a game for first place coming into today&#8217;s action. It would be Jays killer Yovani Gallardo against lefty JA Happ, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This weekend series against the American League East divisional rivals Baltimore Orioles has brought with it the first sense of pennant race fever to Toronto this season. The Jays and Orioles were separated by half a game for first place coming into today&#8217;s action. It would be Jays killer Yovani Gallardo against lefty JA Happ, who is having a career year.</p>
<p>Gallardo came into this start with a record of 4-0 and a 1.78 ERA in his career against the Blue Jays during the regular season. He struggled with a 28-pitch first inning, loading the bases with one out, but was able to get Troy Tulowitzki to pop out and Russell Martin to strike out to get out of the inning unscathed. However in the fifth inning, with Baltimore leading 1-0, he wouldn&#8217;t be as lucky and the Blue Jays would finally solve the Gallardo mystery. With one out, Devon Travis would hit a game tying home run, followed by two walks, a run scoring double and an intentional walk which would end Gallardo&#8217;s day. He would leave the game with the bases loaded and the Jays up 2-1. Then Orioles reliever Mychal Givens came in and added gasoline to the fire. He gave up a bases loaded walk to Tulowitzki and two-run doubles to Martin and Kevin Pillar to make it a seven run fifth for Toronto. Gallardo&#8217;s final line would be 4.1 innings, five hits, five runs, four walks and five strikeouts.</p>
<p>Happ has dominated major league hitters since being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates a year ago. Today he would pitch one of his best starts of the season. Besides the Pedro Alvarez solo homer in the second inning, he did not allow a baserunner to reach second base. Happ would strike out 11 Orioles, scatter three hits and three walks over seven innings.  After a lead off single to J.J. Hardy he would exit the game to a loud standing ovation by the sold out Rogers Centre.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Since being traded to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> a year ago, J.A. Happ has a 2.73 ERA in 194.1 innings <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/759475512607510529">July 30, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The Jays would add two more runs in the seventh off the Orioles bullpen, and Joe Biagini, Brett Cecil and Jesse Chavez would finish the game for Toronto. The Jays won 9-1 to take over sole possession of first place, for the first time since April 5th.</p>
<h3>TOP PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of the fifth inning, with runners at first and second, one out and the game tied, Edwin Encarnacion came to the plate. He lined a double into left field to score Jose Bautista and give the Jays a 2-1 lead, a lead they would never relinquish. This increased the win expectancy for Toronto by 17.8 percentage points.</p>
<h3>BOTTOM PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</h3>
<p>The Orioles were up 1-0 heading into the bottom of the third inning.  Josh Donaldson led off the inning with a single but was immediately erased on a double play off the bat of Encarnacion. This play dampened a potential rally for the Blue Jays and reduced the win expectancy by 9.1 percentage points.</p>
<h3>CLUTCH PILLAR</h3>
<p>Twice in today&#8217;s game Kevin Pillar came to the plate with runners on second and third and two out and was able to deliver running scoring doubles each time. These extra runs are always important when facing the potent line up of the Orioles, and they also allowed manager John Gibbons to rest his high leverage relievers today. Pillar over the past week has hit .333 with an .893 OPS, producing in the bottom of the order, and he continued that today.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look for the sweep of the series tomorrow and both teams will send their best starters to the mound. The Orioles will send Chris Tillman (14-3, 3.47 ERA), having a bounce back season, and the Blue Jays will send Aaron Sanchez (11-1, 2.72 ERA), who hasn&#8217;t lost since April 22.  First pitch is at 1:07 PM EST.</p>
<p><em>LEAD PHOTO: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 2, Mariners 0; Happ Shuts Out Seattle For Six, Salvages Series Finale</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/recap-blue-jays-2-mariners-0-happ-shuts-out-seattle-for-six-salvages-series-finale/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2016 19:38:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory. Though the Jays have [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory.</p>
<p>Though the Jays have been successful against Miley previously in the left-hander&#8217;s career, they weren&#8217;t able to manage much against him on this day, as he scattered four hits and two walks over his six innings of work. He did allow a home run to Edwin Encarnacion in the fourth inning and a manufactured run in the sixth, as Josh Thole scored when Josh Donaldson grounded into a double play. The Mariners bullpen kept it clean after that, but it didn&#8217;t matter terribly, as a day after scoring 14 runs, they were unable to mount any offense at all.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ may have thrown six shutout innings, but he was not without his jams, walking four hitters and hitting a batter, even though he allowed just one hit. The most trouble he had was a walk to Chris Ianetta followed by him hitting Robinson Cano in the top of the fourth inning, but he struck out Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee and got Kyle Seager to pop out to quell the threat. Happ seemed to struggle with his control at times, but in the end, got the result he wanted. The Jays bullpen came in and locked down the last three innings, much to the relief of a fanbase used to them making things a little more interesting. There was a pinch-hit appearance from former Jay Adam Lind in the ninth inning, though Jays closer Roberto Osuna struck him out.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The game was scoreless through four innings,  before Encarnacion&#8217;s home run off Miley broke the shutout. His solo home run to deep centre field increased the Jays&#8217; chances to win by 13.9 percentage points, and gave them a lead they would not relinquish.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Mariners threatened in several innings against Happ. Mike Zunino walked to open up the third inning, and was promptly caught stealing. Happ threw a pitch that bounced well in front of the plate, Thole got to it, but Zunino had already taken off for second. Thole&#8217;s throw easily beat the slow footed Mariners catcher, snuffing out a chance for a rally. This lowered their chances to win by 6.6 percentage points. Zunino getting caught stealing was followed by a single, which would have moved him to second if he was still on base.</p>
<h3>Figuring Out The Bullpen</h3>
<p>Drew Storen being designated for assignment was a mild surprise to those following the Jays. Not based on his performance, but his contract, as the Jays will have to pay around $2 million to make him disappear. It is a signal that the club has not been satisfied with the effort from their bullpen so far, and that some roles are up for grabs. This game had the Jays using their preferred 7-8-9 guys, with Brett Cecil, Jason Grilli, and Roberto Osuna finishing the game cleanly. Cecil having a clean inning was a very encouraging sign, given his struggles of late. The Jays will need him and others to step up down the stretch.</p>
<h3>Thole Holds the Fort</h3>
<p>Generally, a Josh Thole start has meant one deep, dark hole in the Jays&#8217; lineup, a bottomless pit of despair from which there is no escape. Thole&#8217;s last few games have seen him contributing positively on offense. In Thole&#8217;s last five starts, he&#8217;s 5 for 14 with two doubles, two walks, and five RBIs. Given his abysmal .159/.250/.216 line coming into the game, anything Thole gives them with the bat while Russ Martin sits is a bonus.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow has the San Diego Padres making a rare visit to the Rogers Centre, in a game that starts at 7:07 PM ET. The Jays send Aaron Sanchez (10-1, 2.87 ERA) to the mound. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea (5-4, 5.01 ERA). Following the All-Star game, Sanchez has continued to pitch well, even as Jays fans wonder if and when he&#8217;ll be sent to the bullpen. Rea is coming off a loss to the Cardinals where he went six innings and allowed four runs. This is the third interleague game he&#8217;s started this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 6, Tigers 0; Jays Shut Out Tigers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/08/recap-blue-jays-6-tigers-0-jays-shut-out-tigers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Jul 2016 02:40:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Lowe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4500</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays continued their winning ways on Friday night at the Rogers Centre, beating the Tigers and pushing their winning streak to 7 games in the process. Despite entering the game with a 4.78 ERA and K/9 of only 4.29, the Blue Jays struggled to score runs off Tigers’ starter Mike Pelfrey, who generated [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays continued their winning ways on Friday night at the Rogers Centre, beating the Tigers and pushing their winning streak to 7 games in the process. Despite entering the game with a 4.78 ERA and K/9 of only 4.29, the Blue Jays struggled to score runs off Tigers’ starter Mike Pelfrey, who generated 9 groundball outs, including three double play balls. Darwin Barney doubled and came around to score the only run the Blue Jays’ could muster off Pelfry when Josh Donaldson hit into a double play during the bottom of the 5<sup>th</sup> inning. J.A. Happ continued to pitch well, striking out 9 Tigers over 5.2 shutout innings. While the Jays weren’t able to get to Pelfrey, they were able to get to a Tigers’ bullpen that has struggled all year long. The Jays scored 4 times in the 7<sup>th</sup> inning against Kyle Ryan and Bobby Parnell, three of those runs coming on a three-run homer off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion. That would be all the offence needed on a night where the Blue Jays’ bullpen threw 3.1 shutout innings en route to a 6-0 win.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Surprisingly enough, the top play of the game was not the three-run home run off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion, but Kevin Pillar’s RBI double that preceded it. Pillar’s double over center fielder Cameron Maybin scored Justin Smoak (who had singled to begin the inning) all the way from first base, making it 2-0 and increasing the Blue Jays probability of winning by 9.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>When Jesse Chavez came into the game in the bottom of the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, there were two outs and two on. Chavez promptly gave up a sharply hit single to left field off the bat of James McCann, loading the bases for Mike Aviles. Chavez was then able to induce Aviles to hit a grounder to short that ended the inning. Escaping the inning ensured that the book on J.A. Happ was closed unscathed and reduced the Tigers’ probability of winning the game by 12 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Where’s Devon Travis?</h3>
<p>While there was no official word from anyone with the team regarding an injury, Devon Travis sat for the second day in a row while Darwin Barney got the start at second base. Barney, who does not own the same upside or power potential as Travis, has filled in quite effectively &#8211; posting a .297/.349/.397 line in 189 plate appearances coming into play tonight. While it remains to be seen whether or not Travis is injured, if John Gibbons is opting to go with the hot hand there are worse problems than having three middle infielders playing well at the moment.</p>
<h3>J.A. Happ: Strikeout Machine</h3>
<p>From the beginning of the season through his June 16 start against Philadelphia, J. A. Happ had averaged 5.82 strikeouts per nine innings (58 K in 89.2 IP). Since June 16, Happ has struck out 31 batters in 22.2 innings. While Happ has pitched well regardless of his batted ball profile or pitch mix, he continues to mix things up. Since June 16<sup>th</sup> Happ has increased his fastball usage, 5.6%, up to 73.3% from 67.7%. While we don’t know how he will pitch next time out – opting for strikeouts or grounders, there’s a good chance he will do it effectively.</p>
<h3>One Year Later: Mark Lowe</h3>
<p>While many fans were clamoring for the Blue Jays to re-sign free agent reliever Mark Lowe this offseason, the Blue Jays’ front office decided to let Lowe walk in free agency. Lowe was seen as a logical option to boost a bullpen that was in dire need of reinforcements, and was coming off a season in which he pitched to a 1.96 ERA (2.54 FIP) and 61 strikeouts over 55 innings. Lowe, who signed a 2 year, $11 million dollar contract with the Tigers, has struggled mightily this season, pitching to a 10.33 ERA (7.68 FIP) in 27 innings so far. And we all thought Drew Storen was struggling. Lowe’s return to Toronto this weekend is yet another reminder of just how volatile relief pitching can be and provides yet another cautionary tale of spending your free agent dollars on them.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays’ series with the Tigers continues tomorrow afternoon at Rogers Centre. Aaron Sanchez (9-1, 2.94 ERA) will make his final start of the first half while Detroit has not officially announced a starting pitcher for Saturday afternoon. Despite not announcing, there is a strong chance that the Tigers will turn to Matt Boyd (0-2, 6.44 ERA), the former Blue Jay farmhand who was shipped to Detroit as part of the David Price trade. The game begins at 1:07 PM EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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