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	<title>Toronto &#187; Drew Storen</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>The Replacements: How Do The New Bullpen Pieces Stack Up</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/06/the-replacements-how-do-the-new-bullpen-pieces-stack-up/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2017 12:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joaquin Benoit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For all the potential frustration from fans about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some small victories recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini. The Blue Jays bullpen [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For all the potential <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/24/half-baked-musings-on-a-frustrating-offseason-for-jays-fans">frustration from fans</a> about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/31/blue-jays-sign-lefty-reliever-j-p-howell/">small</a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/">victories</a> recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays bullpen struggled at the beginning of last year, and there&#8217;s no shortage of reasons why. The Blue Jays started the year with eight relievers, an abundance of high-leverage situations, and two struggling veterans in Drew Storen and Brett Cecil making the opening months quite nail-biting for Jays fans. John Gibbons emerging from the dugout with an arm raised was a source of stress more than relief, save for the mostly-automatic Osuna. The late season acquisitions of Joaquin Benoit and Grilli righted the ship, but with Benoit and Cecil leaving, the team had some holes to fill coming into the offseason.</p>
<p>Did they get the right guys? Let&#8217;s compare the newcomers to the players they&#8217;re replacing, and see how they stack up. To start off, we&#8217;ll do the lefties: Howell does J.P. stack up against Cecil?</p>
<h2>J.P. Howell vs. Brett Cecil</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8911 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png" alt="howell-cecil" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>By the 2016 numbers, this exchange works reasonably well for the Blue Jays. Howell seems to be a competent replacement for Cecil, and signed for less money and fewer years. One thing to note is they&#8217;re very different pitchers. Cecil was a fastball/curveball pitcher, famous for that sweeping hook that got him strikeouts when it was on. Even in what was perceived by some to be a down season, he still struck out 11 batters per nine innings. Howell is a sinkerballer, relying mostly on a mid 80s sinker and a solid defense to bail him out. With the excellent defensive infield the Jays have, this will likely work out just fine.</p>
<p>Something else Howell doesn&#8217;t have is Cecil&#8217;s history and familiarity with the organization and the fans. Given how some fans saw Cecil&#8217;s performance last season, this might be a bonus rather than a deficit. Howell is likely to be John Gibbons&#8217; first call when a left-hander is needed, regardless of if he does well or not out of the gate.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Smith is ostensibly replacing Benoit, but Benoit only spent part of the season with the Jays. So rather than compare Smith to just Benoit, we will compare him to the aggregate of Benoit and the man he replaced: Drew Storen.</p>
<h2>Joe Smith vs. Joaquin Benoit/Drew Storen</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-8912 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png" alt="smith-storoit" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>This is another one that seems to work out well for the Blue Jays. Though we do not have an aggregate DRA, the other numbers are fairly similar, with a lower K/9 from Smith than our Benoit/Storen hydra. Another thing we note looking at Benoit specifically is he had a much lower HR/9 rate with the Jays than his career would have suggested. Though he threw well with Toronto, trouble was coming, and they may have been wise to let him walk after getting as much as they could from him.</p>
<p>When we look beyond the numbers, there&#8217;s now a running similarity in the pitchers the Jays have brought in: they don&#8217;t throw as hard. Both Benoit and Storen were fastball/slider pitchers, and threw said fastballs in the low 90s. Smith, much like Howell, is a sinkerballer, and might touch 90 on a good day. This could be why both Smith and Howell were available when higher-end relief pitchers who throw much harder were <a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/report-yankees-aroldis-chapman-agree-to-five-year-86-million-deal/">getting a lot more money.</a></p>
<p>While the numbers suggest this should work fine for the Jays, there&#8217;s no certainty with relievers. They can fluctuate from year to year, as the Jays learned repeatedly last season. Storen struggled, Cecil scuffled early and righted the ship late, Grilli turned from a cheap trade acquisition into a key setup man, and Benoit became another crucial link in the middle inning chain the Jays constructed as the season went along. The bullpen on opening day was much different from the one that entered the playoffs, and that&#8217;s something to keep in mind if the newcomers blow a game or two early. But everything we can see suggests Smith and Howell were savvy pickups at a low cost, and should save Gibbons some heartache when he tries to match up later in games.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Assessing the Trade Deadline: The Upgrades We Haven&#8217;t Talked About</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/assessing-the-trade-deadline-the-upgrades-we-havent-talked-about/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2016 19:23:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Miley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front office did nothing to improve their already strong ball club.</p>
<p>Lost in this year&#8217;s trade analysis however, were many of the intangible improvements the Blue Jays made at this year&#8217;s deadline, which, according to Chris &#8216;Mad Dog&#8217; Russo, are key ingredients in the championship elixir. With this in mind, here is an assessment of the under-reported upgrades that the Blue Jays did and didn’t make at the 2016 deadline.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Melvin Upton and AL East Experience</h3>
<p>While many note that Upton amounts to a solid depth acquisition – a defensive replacement who can hit against left-handed pitching and play all three outfield positions, they are underselling one important part of Upton’s portfolio: AL East Experience. Long heralded as baseball’s toughest division, the AL East is presumed in a class of its own when it comes to the caliber of competition (although this can not be verified numerically in recent years).</p>
<p>While Upton may not be able to overtake Michael Saunders or Kevin Pillar in terms of playing time, he will be able to tell you the name of a great steakhouse in Baltimore or the best park to take your wife and kids to near Yankee Stadium. These kinds of intangibles are crucial to any team with its sights set on a division championship or just enjoys eating well on the road.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Bearded Swingman Scott Feldman</h3>
<p>While the Blue Jays were rumored to be in on many of the starting pitchers available, the Scott Feldman acquisition came as a surprise. Feldman, however, provides valuable beard depth on a team that may lose two of its more elite beards (Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders) to free agency this off season.</p>
<p>Despite possessing a strong crop of young pitchers in Roberto Osuna, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez, none of the youngsters have demonstrated the ability to grow the facial hair the team may need come 2017. Aside from his ability to pitch in both the rotation and the bullpen, Feldman has long possessed an 80-grade beard that could slot in nicely as the replacement for either Bautista or Saunders, should the team not be able to re-sign them. The Jays were unable to add anyone that could offset the potential loss of Edwin Encarnacion’s chinstrap, however.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Install a Safety Railing in Russell Martin’s Shower</h3>
<p>Catching depth is one of the scarcest commodities in the Major Leagues. Very few teams are lucky enough to have one high-quality player behind the plate let alone two. This is why one of the Blue Jays’ small but important moves at the deadline was to install a safety railing in Russell Martin’s shower.</p>
<p>The Jays realize that protecting Martin, who was forced to miss a handful of games in mid-July (due to a sauna-induced slip in in the shower) needed to be a top priority for the club. The cost of the installation is said to be a fraction of what the Blue Jays would pay to keep Eric Kratz on the Major League roster and the team was able to get a great deal on a contractor because Jason Grilli knew a guy.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Exercise Restraint and Don’t Trade Jose Bautista to the Nationals</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista, who’s contract expires after the World Series, may be nearing the end of his Blue Jays’ tenure if management decides they don’t want to pay what it will cost to keep him into his early 40s.</p>
<p>This uncertainty led to the circulation of rumors that Bautista might be headed to the Nationals before the non-waiver trade deadline. While Atkins was no doubt tempted by his hatred of all things connected to the previous management regime, not to mention strong Nationals’ trade packages built around Ryan Zimmerman or Jayson Werth, the Blue Jays’ GM opted to hold on to Bautista. Mike Rizzo’s “it never hurts to ask” policy typically only works when he’s asking about players like Johnathan Papelbon.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Hidden Value in the Francisco Liriano Trade</h3>
<p>The most notable acquisition the Blue Jays made this month was Monday’s trade for Pirates’ lefty Francisco Liriano. In addition to Liriano, the Blue Jays acquired two prospects and three weeks of extra media content in the deal.</p>
<p>While many praised the move as a savvy way to acquire Major League talent and prospects at the same time, the real get is the additional columns, video segments and radio discussions about how the Blue Jays may now replace Aaron Sanchez in the rotation. Excited at the possibility of filling their airwaves with further discussion and analysis of the great Sanchez debate, one Sportsnet big wig was quoted as saying: “the ratings generated when Zauny turns bright red on Tim and Sid alone will justify paying Liriano’s $13 million dollar salary in 2017”.</p>
<p>Rusell Martin’s framing abilities will be counted on to help Liriano turn his season around and to offer a players&#8217; perspective in the Sanchez shutdown debates.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Blue Jays Insist that Orioles Acquire Wade Miley</h3>
<p>With few high level arms available via trade this season, the market demand for starting pitching saw general managers acting like Canadian house hunters in their attempt to secure rotation upgrades.</p>
<p>Understanding that the Blue Jays’ best chance at success lies in having hurlers like Wade Miley pitch against the club rather than start for it, the team wisely decided against acquiring a back of the rotation innings-eater. While Jose Bautista and company may have been actively petitioning the club to acquire pitchers at the deadline in years past, the Jays’ offence is likely asking for more opportunities to face off against this year’s crop of trade targets.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Trade Drew Storen to Seattle for Slightly Older Drew Storen</h3>
<p>The Drew Storen experiment didn’t work out in Toronto. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the once-excellent Storen lost enough miles per hour on his fastball that he was unable to pitch effectively.</p>
<p>Instead of waiting until the end of the year to cut ties with Storen, Atkins shipped him to Seattle last week in exchange for Joaquin Benoit , a reliever with a similar record of long term success and short term struggles. The best-case scenario is that Benoit returns to form and the Jays have another reliable bullpen arm. The worst-case is that Blue Jay fans will get to spend a few innings a week wondering the same thing they did when Storen was pitching: Is he really this bad now? And, can he turn things around? Consistency is important.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro skillfully added talent to both their major and minor league teams without subtracting any significant pieces from the current roster. Lost in these upgrades, were a series of intangible improvements that often go unnoticed &#8211; beard depth is just as important as pitching depth. It might not be exciting but it was productive. If you still don’t think the Blue Jays did enough at the deadline, you can always count Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins playing the outfield as new additions too…right???</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Jays Don&#8217;t Need to Add to Win a World Series</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/25/the-jays-dont-need-to-add-to-win-a-world-series/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jul 2016 15:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tulo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4805</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Think back to 2014. This team had Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and an adequate supporting staff. However, they couldn&#8217;t quite make the playoffs. In fact, at five games back, they weren&#8217;t particularly close. What was the issue? Again, team had a lot of adequate talent. It also had two very impressive players, but it just didn&#8217;t [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Think back to 2014. This team had Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and an adequate supporting staff. However, they couldn&#8217;t quite make the playoffs. In fact, at five games back, they weren&#8217;t particularly close. What was the issue? Again, team had a lot of adequate talent. It also had two very impressive players, but it just didn&#8217;t have enough upper echelon talent to succeed.</p>
<p>Now think back to 2015. The Jays had kept the core of their team together, losing only Melky Cabrera and Adam Lind. They also went and added that upper echelon talent, in trading for Josh Donaldson. You might have heard of him; <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15229047/josh-donaldson-not-resting-mvp-laurels" target="_blank">he&#8217;s kind of good</a>. Then, as you&#8217;ll remember, at the trade deadline, the Blue Jays doubled down. They already had a collection of great players, and added to it by swapping the declining Jose Reyes for one of baseball&#8217;s best shortstops, and swapping a few younger starters for a true ace in David Price. In under 48 hours, they went from a very good team, to the best team in baseball.</p>
<p>In that case, almost across the board, the acquisitions were justified. Troy Tulowitzki was a long term acquisition, who just happened to come at the trade deadline. Ben Revere was picked up for two failed prospects. David Price was a needed starting pitcher, for a staff that was hardly five deep.</p>
<p>While it was warranted last season, adding at the trade deadline isn&#8217;t always necessary. If a team is good enough to make the playoffs, then they don&#8217;t <em>need</em> to add anything in order to win the World Series. Anybody can win in a seven game series; the 2014 Kansas City Royals epitomize that notion.</p>
<p>At present, the Blue Jays find themselves three games back of the top of the AL East, and in a good position to capture one of the two AL wild card spots. PECOTA gives the team a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">67% chance of at least making it to the wildcard game</a>. As a result, the 2016 Blue Jays don&#8217;t <em>need </em>to add anything to win a World Series.</p>
<p>In the mainstream, that is not a position that is taken to very kindly.</p>
<p><em><strong>&#8220;They can&#8217;t waste this opportunity,&#8221; </strong></em>they&#8217;ll say.</p>
<p>In some ways, anonymous Blue Jays talking head, you&#8217;re right. Following 2016, the Blue Jays will likely lose at least one of Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. However, there is an assumption implicit to the idea that the Blue Jays&#8217;s can&#8217;t waste 2016: that they&#8217;re already wasting it. Back in mid-May, when the team was under .500 and seven games out of the top of the AL East, one could make that argument. Now, as the Jays hold a wildcard spot, and are successfully chasing an AL East title, one can&#8217;t.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll give you this: it never hurts to add more talent to a team, so long as that talent is acquired at a reasonable price. But, acquisitions at the trade deadline are most often made in a competitive market, and don&#8217;t come at a reasonable price. Either way, here&#8217;s why an addition isn&#8217;t required.</p>
<h3>The Outfield</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s not everyday that you can lose a player worth 4.5 WARP last season, and improve, but that&#8217;s exactly what happened this season. On June 16th, when the Jays lost Jose Bautista to injury, the team&#8217;s outfield began to look bleak. After all, he&#8217;d have to be replaced by &#8216;journeyman&#8217; Ezequiel Carrera. Not only has Ezequiel been a sufficient replacement, but he&#8217;s made significant improvements to his approach. Some <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/ezequiel-carrera-deserves-to-be-a-full-time-outfielder/" target="_blank">might say he deserves to be a starting outfielder</a>, but even the most skeptical acknowledge that&#8217;s he&#8217;s now a worthy fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>With improvements from Carrera and Michael Saunders, and a lack of regression from Kevin Pillar, the Jays have an incredible outfield core. Then, beyond them, there&#8217;s Dalton Pompey, Junior Lake, and maybe even Chris Colabello waiting in the wings. Depending on who you decide to deem worthy, the outfield is six or seven players deep. The Blue Jays always could acquire Melvin Upton Jr., but where would they put him?</p>
<h3>The Infield</h3>
<p>At the beginning of last season, Devon Travis was the hottest storyline in town. Small in stature, and quick with the bat, Travis was on a 20 homer pace prior to<a href="http://jaysjournal.com/2016/03/26/blue-jays-devon-travis-making-progress-shoulder-injury/" target="_blank"> his shoulder injury</a>. This season, his pace would put him at 21 home runs over 150 games, but he&#8217;s ostensibly a non-story. Why? Well, Josh Donaldson <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-donaldson-ahead-last-years-mvp-pace/" target="_blank">has only gotten better</a>, and Troy Tulowitzki is heating up.</p>
<p>Over June and July, as Tulo has recovered from his own injury, he has hit to a .943 OPS, while still providing immaculate defense at SS. For some context, Manny Machado, who has the highest OPS among all qualified shortstops, has an OPS of .934 on the season. Then, there&#8217;s Justin Smoak, who&#8217;s never set the world on fire with his hitting, but has always been a solid defender at first base, and<a href="justni%20smoak extension" target="_blank"> just signed a two-year extension</a>. You tell me, who in that infield are you going to replace?</p>
<h3>The Bullpen</h3>
<p>Relievers are baseball&#8217;s most volatile commodity; there&#8217;s nothing new about that. As such, the best results are often achieved with quantity, rather than quality. After all, it&#8217;s 60 innings over a full season, or 20 innings after the trade deadline. If the current structure of the bullpen is any indication, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would appear to think along the same lines. Last season, it was a catastrophe when Aaron Loup didn&#8217;t perform. This season, he&#8217;s been demoted, because there are too many quality arms above him.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to suggest that there haven&#8217;t been issues. Drew Storen has had plenty of issues with the long ball, and Brett Cecil isn&#8217;t far behind him. In fact, Storen&#8217;s been so bad that the Jays decided <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/7/24/12265496/blue-jays-dfa-drew-storen-call-up-ryan-tepera" target="_blank">designating him for assignment</a> was a better solution than working out his issues in the majors. Even without him, the Jays have four relievers who&#8217;ve been better than league average (Osuna, Biagini, Grilli, and Schultz), and three who should be better than league average (Cecil, Chavez, and Morales). Over 20 innings down the stretch, the probability that anyone the Jays acquire is significantly better than the seven listed relievers is small. The Jays can add to the bullpen, but they don&#8217;t <em>need</em> to.</p>
<h3>The Rotation</h3>
<p>In March, it looked like the Jays <em>would</em> need to add to the rotation. In April, after a month of successful starts, skepticism about Sanchez, Estrada, and Happ led to the opinion that the Jays <em>might</em> need to add to the rotation. Now, as we head in to August, the sample sizes are more significant, and it&#8217;s looking like they <em>may not</em> need any additions at all. By ERA, this Blue Jays starting staff has posted the fourth best mark in team history. The only three seasons in which the Jays&#8217; rotation has been better came in 1985, 1989, and 1991, when the offensive environment was substantially more subdued.</p>
<p>On top of that, for what seems like the first time ever, this rotation actually has some depth to it. There&#8217;s the five current starters, and then Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez, and Gavin Floyd. Any of the three could step in as a respectable fifth starter; Chavez would just need to be stretched out.</p>
<p>Another starter <em>could</em> be added to the staff, but unless they&#8217;re a top end talent, there&#8217;s little point in pushing any of the Jays five current starters to the bullpen. That includes Aaron Sanchez, who can, and should, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/how-to-maximize-aaron-sanchez/" target="_blank">be able to pitch the full season when deployed correctly</a>. And then you have the issue of acquirability; it&#8217;s not quite easy to get a top end talent. For example, half a season of David Price cost two MLB ready starting pitchers. With little farm system left, and no clear <em>need</em> in the rotation, that&#8217;s not something that can be easily justified.</p>
<h3>The Team</h3>
<p>As is the case with any stance, there&#8217;s always exceptions to the rule. For example, if you&#8217;re given the chance to acquire a premium player for a longer term, as they did with Troy Tulowitzki, it&#8217;s a different calculation. This season, it looks like Chris Sale could be some team&#8217;s Tulo.</p>
<p>The majority of trades will be made with short term additions in mind; that&#8217;s an arena in which the Jays need not participate. As mentioned above, they have a<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank"> two in three chance of making the playoffs</a>. Acquiring another player looks nice, but wouldn&#8217;t affect that calculation very much. If there&#8217;s a clear need that can be filled, then it works. However, with the Jays now having adequate depth and no clear need, most all acquisitions would add players that&#8217;d be different, not better. This is an incredibly good Blue Jays team, and that will shine through, acquisitions or not.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Surprise! Blue Jays Designate Drew Storen for Assignment, Recall Ryan Tepera</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/surprise-blue-jays-designate-drew-storen-for-assignment-recall-ryan-tepera/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/surprise-blue-jays-designate-drew-storen-for-assignment-recall-ryan-tepera/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2016 14:52:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tempera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4815</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a relatively shocking move Sunday morning, the Blue Jays have designated right handed relief pitcher Drew Storen for assignment and have recalled Ryan Tepera to take his place on the roster. The Blue Jays will now have 10 days to waive, trade, release, or outright Storen to the minor leagues, the last of which [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a relatively shocking move Sunday morning, the Blue Jays have designated right handed relief pitcher Drew Storen for assignment and have recalled Ryan Tepera to take his place on the roster. The Blue Jays will now have 10 days to waive, trade, release, or outright Storen to the minor leagues, the last of which he would likely refuse and become a free agent instead.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ryan Tepera has been recalled. Drew Storen DFA&#39;d <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNBarryDavis/status/757220968423157760">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Despite cozying up to the fanbase soon after his January 8th trade to the Blue Jays with some clever Drake-related tweets, the 28-year-old Storen never got going for Toronto. A successful reliever with Washington since 2010, Storen entered this season with 334 innings under his belt and a career ERA of just 3.02. He had struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings and walked just 2.6 every nine. However, as soon as 2016 started, his numbers nosedived, and he was never able to recover. His April saw him give up nine earned runs in only eight innings pitched. He seemed to get back on track in May, pitching to a 3.86 ERA that month, but the underlying issues were still there, and Storen has now likely finished his Blue Jays tenure with a less-than-shiny 6.21 ERA in 33 1/3 innings pitched.</p>
<p>The exact reasons for Storen&#8217;s sudden disappearance of talent will likely never be known, but we can speculate that it was a combination of his slider stopping to slide as well as it did when he was younger, and a sharp drop in velocity this season. After averaging over 94 mph on his fastball with the Nationals, it was only at 92.5 mph this season, which can make unhittable pitches a lot easier to make contact with for opposing batters.</p>
<p>What this means for the Blue Jays bullpen is unclear at the moment, but it can be expected that a reliever will be added via trade in the next week leading up to the trade deadline. Storen was supposed to be the team&#8217;s set-up man heading into 2016, and because his colossal failure, John Gibbons has been throwing pitchers at the wall ever since to see if any of them will stick. Thankfully, Jason Grilli has, but with Brett Cecil also struggling, the team needs at least one more high end reliever for them to be in a good position heading into the final two months of the season.</p>
<p>Tepera, also 28, has been shuffled between Buffalo and Toronto this season frequently as he has options and isn&#8217;t good enough to stick around on a full time basis. In 4 2/3 innings pitched for Toronto in 2016, he has given up three earned runs. For Buffalo in AAA, he has a sparkling 2.95 ERA as the Bisons closer in 36 2/3 innings with 14 saves.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 4</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/31/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-4/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 31 May 2016 14:19:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3221</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at www.mikesonne.ca. It&#8217;s that time of the month [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at<a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/"> www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
<p>It&#8217;s that time of the month where you gather up your family, curl up in front of the window AC unit, and look at the Blue Jays Stuff report.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/">Stuff Report Volume 1</a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/">Stuff Report Volume 2</a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/16/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-3/">Stuff Report Volume 3</a></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Starters</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-3254" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Starters-v4-1024x197.png" alt="Jays Starters v4" width="707" height="136" /></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Starters-Graph-v4.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-3253" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Starters-Graph-v4-1024x743.png" alt="Jays Starters - Graph - v4" width="500" height="363" /></a></p>
<p>There are no real surprises in the Jays starting rotation when it come to Stuff &#8211; Sanchez remains well above the league average, and at last count &#8211; had the 10th best stuff of all starting pitchers in the MLB. A concerning trend to watch is that Marcus Stroman has had three consecutive weeks where his stuff has dropped off. Two of his last three starts have been less than desired. We all know that height does not measure heart &#8211; neither does Stuff #SDMH, but this is a disconcerting trend, especially with the way it has shown up in the results on the field. Happ and Estrada are pitching with below league average stuff, but their location and pitch mix have been so good, that they keep getting hitters out.</p>
<p>In the past two weeks, RA Dickey has seen a slight increase in velocity, and added some range to his break movement. Knuckleballs tend not to be best represented by the Stuff metric, but it&#8217;s interesting to see the how the change is still reflected in better recent performance. And let&#8217;s face it, Dickey&#8217;s innings are going to be very important with possible limits coming for Stroman and Sanchez, so the better he is, the better for the Jays.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=752038783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Relievers</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relievers-v4.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-3252" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relievers-v4-1024x287.png" alt="Jays Relievers v4" width="707" height="198" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relievers-Graph-v4.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-3251" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relievers-Graph-v4-1024x742.png" alt="Jays Relievers - Graph - v4" width="500" height="362" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s been quite fun to see Joe Biagini pitch as well as he has this season, and you can see that his stuff lead has started to increase over Roberto Osuna in the past two weeks. As his stuff continues to trend upward, so too has his role and performance. He is now arguably the second most trusted reliever in the Blue Jays bullpen. It&#8217;s quite the rise for a man who wasn&#8217;t even protected from the Rule V draft by the Giants. Clearly though, the quirky reliever has been loved wherever he has gone: </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p style="text-align: center">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Joe Biagini video. Remarkable yet disturbing <a href="https://t.co/WZMQkzB8eU">https://t.co/WZMQkzB8eU</a></p>
<p>— Jeff Blair (@SNJeffBlair) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNJeffBlair/status/674992823188504577">December 10, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Aaron Loup debuts with a great stuff profile at 0.99. That&#8217;s just below the elite level of stuff. It&#8217;s interesting that despite the large loss in velocity &#8211; almost three miles per hour &#8211; Loup still grades high because of his incredible movement. One trend that is interesting to follow is that of Drew Storen. Storen has always profiled with excellent stuff because of the nasty movement on his slider. However, he has seen a large drop in stuff in the past two weeks. Looking a bit closer, his velocity, pitch composition, change of speed, and breaking ball velocity all appear to be holding steady. If you look at the Volume 3 of the stuff report, you&#8217;ll notice that Drew has seen the break distance in his repertoire reduce from 19&#8243; down to 13.8&#8243;. Is this a result of injury? Weather? Evil spirits? I don&#8217;t know. I&#8217;m not that kind of doctor.</p>
<p>Overall, the Blue Jays relievers seem to have the stuff, but not the performance. Hopefully they can begin to turn things around, as the talent is still clearly there.</p>
<p><em>For more information on the “Stuff Metric”, visit <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/">www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Why It&#8217;s Ok to Worry</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/16/this-week-in-blue-jays-why-its-ok-to-worry-about-the-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2016 10:58:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“I work hard not to draw any conclusions until 40 games in. Everything is amplified, magnified early in the season, just because of the number of games you’ve played. The most fortunate thing that’s happened is that the division is pretty wide open. We are not where we want to be, let me make that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>“I work hard not to draw any conclusions until 40 games in. Everything is amplified, magnified early in the season, just because of the number of games you’ve played. The most fortunate thing that’s happened is that the division is pretty wide open. We are not where we want to be, let me make that clear…What is probably most advantageous to where we are is that we’re going to have time to sort it out and get better.”</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>            -Mark Shapiro on The Jeff Blair Show, April 28<sup>th</sup>, when the Jays were 10-13</strong></p>
<p> When a team struggles out of the gate, particularly one with as many expectations as was placed on the Blue Jays this season, there is a tendency for those with a vested interest in the team to react in one of two ways. One either chalks it up to it being early in the season with plenty of time to sort things out, or succumbs to complete and utter panic. While the latter is incredibly tedious and, quite frankly, ridiculous, the former can also be contentious, particularly due to the debateable nature as to what constitutes “early” within the context of a 162-game season. To be quite honest, the “it’s early” mantra has irked me this season for two important reasons (aside from the let-down of hovering around the .500 mark).</p>
<p>First, both the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox continue to play good baseball, and while I don’t believe the Orioles can maintain their current .657 winning percentage, the Red Sox have a formidable lineup that is currently performing to expectation. Second, and more importantly, is the fact that the Blue Jays will play their fortieth game of the season today, and if the above quote is any indication, Mark Shapiro may be starting to draw some conclusions, which in turn could lead to some critical decisions. The fact that the Jays are sitting one game below .500 and have, quite frankly, exhibited mediocrity as a team to this point, one cannot help but wonder what the front office may be thinking. So, whether or not it’s still early, let’s examine how things have transpired in the first (nearly) forty games of the season.</p>
<h3>The Good</h3>
<p>Without a doubt, the one true bright spot this season has been the Jays’ rotation. Collectively thought of as the weak link coming into the season, they are the only reason the Jays haven’t lost more games. According to <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/731475318360440832%20" target="_blank">this tweet</a> from Ben Nicholson-Smith, as of Friday, the Jays’ rotation ERA of 3.02 was the best in the American League and the third best in all of baseball. With all the angst amongst some fans regarding the offseason loss of David Price (which, quite frankly, was a given the day he was acquired), it was assumed that the rotation, which struggled mightily through the first half of last season, would be the one potential barrier to another run at the post-season. Enter J.A. Happ, who too many remembered as being mediocre with the Jays from 2012-2014 and too few were aware had turned things around during the latter half of 2015 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/05/09/ja-happ-pitching-like-an-elite-lefty-in-his-return-to-toronto.html%20" target="_blank">Brendan Kennedy of The Star writes</a>, Happ is pitching like an elite lefty, one who is undefeated in his first six starts, has the American League’s 13<sup>th</sup>-lowest ERA (2.50), and has given up three runs or fewer in each of his starts, all of which he has pitched at least six innings. What, exactly, is different about Happ this second go-around in Toronto? While with the Pirates, Happ increased his fastball usage, and is now using his two-seamer to get more ground balls in the bottom of the strike zone while using his four-seamer in the upper zone, generating fewer strikeouts but more weak contact. More than that, however, is his improved confidence as evidenced by the quick pace with which he pitches. Says Pete Walker: “His confidence is through the roof. I think he feels like he finally understands his game completely.”</p>
<p>Add to this the fact that Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, and Marcus Stroman have been stellar all season, and R.A. Dickey has had three straight quality starts, and the Jays thus far have one of the better performing rotations in baseball. Though it is unlikely to continue being this good throughout the entire season, the rotation has been nothing less than impressive.</p>
<h3>The Bad</h3>
<p>Though they are only one of two teams remaining who have thrown fewer than 100 combined innings (thanks to the aforementioned stellar performance by the starting pitchers), it feels as though the Jays’ bullpen has coughed up a lead in every other game this season. Frustrating though they may be as a collective, the Jays’ relievers are near the middle of the pack in ERA (3.66 – 18<sup>th</sup>), FIP (3.92 – 15<sup>th</sup>), xFIP (3.93 – 17<sup>th</sup>) and WAR (0.6 – 15<sup>th</sup>). They do, however, have the fourth highest BABIP in the majors (.309).</p>
<p>Of particular concern is the performance of set-up man Drew Storen. His struggles are, <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/storen-s-struggles-are-both-mental-and-physical-1.489257%20" target="_blank">in the estimation of Steve Phillips of TSN</a>, both mental and physical. The fact that there are physical problems is fairly evident; his velocity is down on all of his pitches and his command has been an issue. He typically handles right-handed batters (.who have a 219 OBA vs Storen) better than left-handed batters (.256 OBA) because his slider is his most effective put-away pitch, but he simply has shown poor command of his slider thus far. Worse than that has been his fastball command, with which he is finding too much of the strike zone. The result? The league is hitting .352 against him (lefties have a BA of .385 with a 2.60 WHIP while righties have a BA of .321 with a 1.29 WHIP). Whether or not these physical struggles are the result of mental struggles, as Phillips suggest, is much more difficult to ascertain. Phillips writes that, “His performance in Washington tanked when he was demoted from closer to setup man. I believe it was a mental collapse as much as it was a physical collapse.”</p>
<p>I suppose that losing the closer’s job to Roberto Osuna could have been a blow to Storen’s confidence, but it’s not as though he was unaware of that strong possibility at the outset of spring training. For his part, Storen views his performance woes as just part of the job: “You’re going to have these stretches. It’s a matter of how you look at it. You can get caught up in ‘I’m not catching breaks.’ Just keep your head down and do your thing. There’s a reason I’ve had the career I have.” Regardless of the cause, Storen has been relegated to low-leverage situations for the time being.</p>
<p>Equally frustrating has been the performance of Brett Cecil, who went from being lights’ out last season to 0-and-5 with a 5.23 ERA in sixteen appearances this season. After facing two batters on Saturday, Cecil complained of a left triceps strain and was <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-place-cecil-15-day-dl-triceps-strain/" target="_blank">placed on the 15-day disabled list </a>(it seems odd to me that he’d immediately be placed on the DL rather than be listed day-to-day, but my guess is that his poor performance made the decision that much easier to make).</p>
<p>The concern here is two-fold: first, that given the team’s offensive woes to date (more on that below), the Jays cannot afford to have a mediocre bullpen (they have yet to win a game in which they’ve given up four or more runs). Second, and more critical, is that it may drive the front office to make a change, such as pre-emptively moving Sanchez to the bullpen sooner rather than later and replacing him in the rotation with, say, Gavin Floyd or Drew Hutchison, or seeking help from outside the club.</p>
<h3>The Ugly</h3>
<p>I suppose that the Jays’ offence could have been classified along with the bullpen as “the bad” part of this season, but given their world-beating performance last season and expectations coming into this year, I’ve elected to classify it as “ugly.” <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/05/14/bullpen-and-bats-behind-blue-jays-average-start-griffin.html" target="_blank">As Richard Griffin points out in The Star</a>, “entering the [past] weekend, the Jays’ cumulative numbers at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and right field showed a batting average under .225, while all but Jose Bautista in right had an OPS south of .700.” Only Michael Saunders in left field, who is batting .325 with a BABIP of .440 and OBP of .392, has been an upgrade over last year.</p>
<p>A team that by far outscored the entire league last season, the Jays are currently ranked 16<sup>th</sup> with 155 runs scored. Moreover, the Jays have struck out at the sixth-highest pace in the majors. As for manufacturing runs, as Griffin points out, “this year’s group through 36 games had one sacrifice bunt, seven sacrifice flies and 11 stolen bases. The Jays, as a team, were hitting .144 with two strikes and .227 with runners in scoring position. Last year’s final numbers included 36 sacrifice bunts, 62 sacrifice flies, 88 steals, a 1.88 mark with two strikes and a .286 average with runner at second base or beyond.” It should come as no surprise that there has been a precipitous drop-off in offensive production this year. It was inevitable given that last year’s totals were buoyed by career-years from key guys like Josh Donaldson and Chris Colabello, but instead, the decline has been more akin to falling off a cliff.</p>
<p>Most notable has been the abysmal performance of five-time all-star Troy Tulowitzki, who has yet to hit with any consistency since being traded to Toronto on July 28th of last year. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/troy-tulowitzki-time-to-worry-1.3568147" target="_blank">Steven Tzemis of CBC Sports </a>writes that &#8220;considering the praise he&#8217;s gotten throughout his career&#8230;it&#8217;s worth wondering whether Coors Field was a factor &#8211; or, more damning, <em>the</em> factor &#8211; in Tulowitzki&#8217;s reputation as a superstar.&#8221; And, though it may still be considered early in the season, Tulowitzi&#8217;s &#8220;sample size in Toronto is big enough to start wondering.&#8221;Of greater concern, perhaps, have been his six errors committed this season, prompting some to wonder if he needs glasses (which, if that were the case, wouldn&#8217;t the Jays have figured it out by now?).  There is a glimmer of hope, however, as the Jays&#8217; bats have begun to show signs of life. As a team, they have scored five or more runs in each of their last three games, and have also come from behind in each of those games to either tie or take the lead (unfortunately, they lost two of those three games).</p>
<p>May means that Edwin Encarnacion&#8217;s bat is heating up, and even Tulowitzki is showing signs of thawing out, batting .273 with three home runs in his last seven games. It is too early to declare that the offense has finally figured it out, but just as the starting rotation likely won&#8217;t be this good all season, it seems equally improbably that the offense will remain this lacklustre.</p>
<p>What, if anything, can be gleaned from the first forty games? The Jays are roughly in the same position as they were at this time last year, when they were 18-22 after forty games, yet do not look like the same team as last season. The one thing this team does not have going for it this year, however, is the potential to go all-in at the trade deadline &#8211; with the inevitability of losing both Bautista and Encarnacion to free agency, and the lack of prospects, I would imagine that Shapiro and Atkins would not be willing to mortgage any more of the future should the Jays continue to find themselves around the .500 mark by July. There is still plenty of time to right this ship &#8211; quite frankly, this team is too talented to <em>not </em>turn things around &#8211; but I think it&#8217;s fair to say that the first forty games have been, especially after last year, a let-down.</p>
<h3>Quick Hits:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Devon Travis began his long-awaited<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-devon-travis-begins-rehab-assignment-dunedin/%20" target="_blank"> rehabilitation assignment </a>in single-A Dunedin on Friday. Travis played seven innings and went 1-for-four with an RBI double, sparking the conversation about who will play second base when he is ready to return. Depending on his progress (he also went 1-for-3 yesterday with a single and sac fly), he could be ready to return in twenty days (the length of a rehab assignment), though the Jays could option him to triple-A Buffalo if they deem he requires more time.</li>
<li>Suspended first baseman Chris Colabello is <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/chris-colabello-daniel-stumpf-ped-suspensions-positive-drug-tests-051416" target="_blank">still seeking answers </a>as to how he could have tested positive for a drug that he maintains he did not knowingly take. Says Colabello: &#8220;I&#8217;m working towards finding answers and I won&#8217;t stop until I do.&#8221; I admit that I have a difficult time believing athletes who claim to have not taken steroids after testing positive, but Colabello seems like a man possessed. If he is innocent as he claims, it is absolutely critical that it be discovered how he tested positive, not just for his sake, but for the sake of all athletes who may find themselves in the same position.</li>
<li>And, finally. Jose Bautista – the face of the franchise since 2010 – played in his <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/178168456/jose-bautista-plays-1000th-game-for-blue-jays" target="_blank">1,000<sup>th</sup> career game in a Jays uniform </a>on Saturday, becoming just the eleventh player to do so. As this is likely to be his last season in Toronto, I would like nothing more than for him to win a championship this year. Seriously. I literally cannot think of anything else that would make me happier.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Gavin Floyd: The Quasi Drew Storen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 May 2016 10:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2644</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The closer debate began the moment the Blue Jays traded for Drew Storen back in January, and the embers of the competition were stoked throughout the full duration of camp. It wasn’t until March 30th that manager John Gibbons made the announcement that Roberto Osuna had won the battle and would continue the role in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left">The closer debate began the moment the Blue Jays traded for Drew Storen back in January, and the embers of the competition were stoked throughout the full duration of camp. It wasn’t until March 30th that manager John Gibbons <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/roberto-osuna-is-the-right-choice-for-closer/">made the announcement</a> that Roberto Osuna had won the battle and would continue the role in which he dominated for the final four months of 2015. The public reaction to the announcement was fairly evenly split, as while just about everyone agreed that Osuna was the better of the two pitchers, those on “<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/31/drew-storen-named-closer-a-win-for-progressive-thinking/">Team Storen</a>” were envisioning the 21 year old flamethrower pitching in the highest leverage situations possible – which often occur in the seventh and eighth innings – with Storen earning the less impactful “saves” in the ninth. This leverage hypothesis has since been confirmed, as you&#8217;ll see shortly.</p>
<p>Six weeks into the season, it’s inching towards laughable that there was ever a closer battle to begin with. Storen hasn’t looked right since his first outing of the year against Tampa Bay, and while Gibbons has repeatedly assured everyone that the right hander is healthy, healthy pitchers don’t often lose three miles per hour off their fastball over the course of an offseason. Storen’s performance has become so unreliable that not only is he completely out of the picture for closing games, he has managed to remove himself from the right handed setup guy conversation, too. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, the February signing of Gavin “I’m only here because my agent is Mark Shapiro’s dad (note: This is in jest)” Floyd has paid off in spades. The oft-injured pitcher has emerged as Gibbons’ second most trustworthy right handed reliever, delivering a breakout that resembles that of last season’s unsung hero (gasp) Liam Hendriks.</p>
<p>Floyd has found his success by evolving his repertoire to better suit his new role. Back in his starter days, he relied upon a balanced, four-pitch arsenal of a four seam fastball, two seam fastball, slider, and curveball, with his changeup serving as a fifth “back of the mind” type offering. Through thirteen relief appearances in 2016, his two seam fastball and changeup have largely been parked, with the four seam fastball and curveball rising to the top as his two primary (and best) offerings. Floyd’s four seam usage has climbed to 40.2 percent – the highest it has been in nine years – while his curveball currently accounts for 32.1 percent of his pitches – more than double its usage rate from last season and well above any other years in which he started.</p>
<p>When starters are converted to the bullpen, you often see the fastball velocity tick up a little bit. This has been the case with Floyd as well; he previously averaged around 92 miles per hour, but that mark has jumped up to 93 this season and has been edging upwards towards 94 over the past couple of weeks. One interesting aspect regarding Floyd’s fastball is that the gap between his maximum velocity and his average velocity has closed over the years. This trend is depicted in Figure 1 below, which suggests that Floyd is throwing with something very close to maximum effort on each and every fastball; there’s not a whole lot of “veteran savvy” adding and subtracting going on to mess up timing.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2645" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-1.png" alt="Floyd Figure 1" width="623" height="431" /></a></p>
<p>This approach appears to be working, and the reason may be that the lack of a “subtracting” element has been negated by his increased reliance upon the curveball. Whereas his slider and nigh-extinct changeup both average around 87 miles per hour – just five or six miles separated from his fastball – the bender has typically been thrown around 81 mph to create a nice velocity window of twelve miles per hour. Over 72 percent of Floyd’s pitches this season have been thrown at one of these two extremes, which has helped his swinging strike rate climb into legitimately elite company. Among 175 qualified relievers, Floyd’s overall swinging strike rate – i.e. the percentage of all pitches which were swung on and missed – ranks 12th at 16.6 percent, just a hair behind Yankees super-reliever Andrew Miller.</p>
<p>Floyd has thrown 79 curveballs this season. Another 26 relievers have thrown at least 50, bringing the sample to a total of 27 pitchers. Within that group, Floyd ranks 4th in whiff per swing rate at 54.6 percent and 1st in groundball rate at <em>one hundred percent</em>. The former figure is ahead of Dellin Betances and Brett Cecil, to name a few. The latter is somewhat misleading given that just four of his 79 curveballs have been put into play, but at the same time, having batters put 5.0 percent (4/79) of curveballs into play seems equally incredible. For context, in 2015, batters put 12.5 percent (43/345) of Brett Cecil’s curveballs in play, and <a title="Brett Cecil’s Second-Half Magic and Baseball’s Best Curveball" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/09/brett-cecils-second-half-magic-and-baseballs-best-curveball/" target="_blank">Brett Cecil’s curveball is insanely good</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2649" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-2.png" alt="Floyd Figure 2" width="1118" height="544" /></a></p>
<p>With both his fastball and curveball he has a clear plan of attack, and as Figure 2 above depicts, it’s a complementary one-two punch. Righties get fastballs down and away, and curveballs even further down and away. Lefties get fastballs in on their hands, and curveballs thrown at their back foot. This approach makes the curveball a truly devastating weapon as its break is really only just beginning where the fastball finishes. Thanks to an average spin axis of 47 degrees, the breaking ball has nearly equal vertical and horizontal movement; a true two-plane pitch. Floyd’s pitch usage with two strikes suggests he’s conscious of the vulnerable position in which he’s able to place batters. In those situations he starts leaning heavily on the curveball – its usage climbs to 50 and 46 percent versus lefties and righties, respectively, and has accounted for ten of his eighteen strikeouts.</p>
<p>Gibbons has already recognized what he has in Floyd, as the right hander is currently sporting the third highest gmLI (or Game Leverage Index) among Blue Jays relievers. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/">Game Leverage Index</a> is one of the better indicators for the level of trust that a manager has in a reliever, as it represents the average leverage index for the situations when a pitcher <em>enters</em> the game, rather than the average leverage index for <em>all</em> events. Leverage Indexes are scaled to where 2.00 and above is considered “high” leverage, anything below 0.85 is considered “low” leverage, and anything in between those two points is “average” leverage.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Table-11.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2647" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Table-11.png" alt="Floyd Table 1" width="470" height="264" /></a></p>
<p>The only two pitchers who have a higher average Game Leverage Index than Gavin Floyd are Brett Cecil and Arnold Leon. Cecil being there you would expect, and the two are neck-in-neck at the upper end of average leverage at 1.80 and 1.75. Leon on the other hand, represents one of John Gibbons’ single greatest mistakes of the early season. He brought the team’s seventh best reliever into a situation with a leverage index of 5.50 – a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning, with one out and two runners on – and we all remember how that unfolded. In the only other game Leon pitched this season, he entered with a leverage index of 0.43, but the damage to his manager’s faith was irreparable. In fact, for the Gibbons critics out there, outside of that erroneous Leon deployment, the average Game Leverage Indexes for Blue Jays relievers are pretty close to what you’d hope to see. It would be nice if Osuna were at the very top of the list, but having Cecil, Floyd, Osuna, Storen, and Chavez in descending order as the top five among the regular options is strong. That the non-Osuna and Floyd arms have largely squandered the opportunities thrust upon them is not blame for Gibbons to shoulder.</p>
<p>Table 1 also shows the strand rate for Blue Jays relievers, something that has become a hot topic for obvious reasons. The two pitchers inheriting the most base runners, Cecil and Chavez, have managed to strand fewer than fifty percent, which has cost the team a number of games. Gibbons <em>should </em>shoulder some of the blame here for frequently keeping his starters in too long and seldom giving his relievers a clean slate, but strand rates between 40 and 50 percent are simply inexcusable. That Storen has inherited zero runners and has still been cratered by opposing offenses is damning, and indicative of just how far he has fallen.</p>
<p>Amid this collection of embarrassing strand rates stands Gavin Floyd at nearly 80 percent. He has entered games with nine runners aboard, but has allowed just two of them to come around to score. As summer approaches, expect Floyd’s level of responsibility to mimic the rising temperatures and continue to grow. Roberto Osuna remains unquestionably the best arm in the bullpen, but the unexpected emergence of Gavin Floyd has drastically lessened the sting of Drew Storen’s disaster of debut season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 10: Jonah Keri and Wish Lists for Winning Streaks</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2016 10:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Star]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Lincecum]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2308</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jonah Keri of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/jonahkeri" target="_blank">Jonah Keri</a> of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. They also answer a bunch of listener questions, give a gold star to the broadcast, and express their wish for Tim Lincecum to someday don a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 6, Rays 1; The Good Aaron Sanchez is Back</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/sanchez-dealing/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/sanchez-dealing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Apr 2016 02:27:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[house of horrors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays opened a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night in St. Petersburg.  This is already the second trip in 2016 to the “House of Horrors” for the Blue Jays.  The last time they split a four game series at Tropicana Field but missed an opportunity to sweep the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays opened a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night in St. Petersburg.  This is already the second trip in 2016 to the “House of Horrors” for the Blue Jays.  The last time they split a four game series at Tropicana Field but missed an opportunity to sweep the series due to some bullpen meltdowns, a poor managerial decision and the “infamous” illegal second base slide by Jose Bautista.   The Jays entered the night on a three game losing streak, wherein the Toronto offense had been struggling.  Having tallied one run in the last 24 innings.  Tampa Bay was sending the tough lefty Drew Smyly to face Aaron Sanchez of the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Sanchez was just coming off his shortest and least effective start last Friday against the Athletics.  This start didn’t begin as he hoped as he allowed two singles to the first two hitters Logan Forsythe and Brad Miller.  However, he was able to retire the next three hitters on eight pitches, including two strikeouts.  He carried that effectiveness throughout the game, mixing his pitches and keeping his fastball down.  Sanchez’s final line was 7 IP, 0 ER, 2BB, 6K.  103 pitches/71 strikes.</p>
<p>Smyly  was effective, and able to keep the Jays hitters off balance by inducing many weak pop ups and striking out eight over six innings.  He only allowed two hits, however, they were monster home runs by Michael Saunders and Josh Donaldson.  Saunders&#8217; off the top of the wall in deep center, Donaldson’s a moon shot off the catwalk in the outfield.  He left the game down 2-0.</p>
<p>The Jays were able to take advantage of the Rays bullpen and added on three more runs in the eighth inning.  Saunders hit his second home run of the game and Justin Smoak lined a two run single with the bases loaded.  They added another run in the ninth on an improbable opposite field solo shot off the bat of the second baseman Ryan Goins.  The Rays countered with a solo shot by Brad Miller off the struggling Drew Storen (10.13 ERA).</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna, needing some work, finished this game in the ninth as the Jays took game one by a score of 6-1.</p>
<h3> Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson, who commented after the loss Wednesday night that some of the hitters in the lineup had to &#8220;evaluate their approach at the plate&#8221;, continued his flawless approach. He hit a massive sixth inning home run  that gave the Jays a 2-0 lead and increased the WPA by .137.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Jays had just opened the scoring in the top of the third with a solo shot by Michael Saunders, and the Rays were threatening in the bottom of the inning.  With two on and one out the Rays best hitter Evan Longoria came to the plate and proceeded to fly out to right field and reduced the Rays the WPA by -.055.</p>
<h3>Russell Martin Avoids Infamy</h3>
<p>Russell Martin entered the game tied with Juan Francisco, Alex Rios, Colby Rasmus with the dubious record of most consecutive Blue Jay strikeouts (as a batter) with seven.  He proceeded to strike out in his first two at bats of the night and set a new Blue Jay record.  In the seventh inning, he ended the streak by hitting a single to the opposite field, coming up short of Rick Ankiel&#8217;s record of 10 consecutive K&#8217;s.  Martin has been dealing with neck pain and it is most likely impacting his ability at the plate, but his value behind the plate is crucial to the success of this team.</p>
<h3>Captain Canada: Michael Saunders</h3>
<p>Since being inserted into the leadoff spot Michael Saunders continues to produce quality at bats for the Jays.  He has been taking pitches, hitting the ball with authority and is a solid table setter for the rest of the lineup.  Tonight he took things into his own hands having his first multi home run game as a Blue Jay. A line of .324/.377/.606 is more than the Jays could have hoped for, and he, too, was in the hunt for a Blue Jays record tonight.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Michael Saunders is the 3rd different Canadian in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> history with a multi-Home Run game (Martin 2x, Stairs)</p>
<p>— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/726217354636595202">April 30, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays go for two wins in a row Saturday as JA Happ (and his 2.42 ERA) will take on Tampa ace Chris Archer (and his 5.47 ERA) starting at 6:10 pm. Yes, those are the correct numbers beside their names.</p>
<p><em> Feature Photo- Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 3; Better Late Than Never</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/blue-jays-red-sox-patriots-day-recap/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/blue-jays-red-sox-patriots-day-recap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Apr 2016 18:52:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1610</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They almost blew it, but luckily Drew Storen was able to lock this game down by getting David Ortiz to strikeout looking in the ninth inning. As a result, the Blue Jays came away with a 4-3 victory and a split of the four game series. After a pitcher&#8217;s duel between Clay Buchholz and J.A. Happ [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They almost blew it, but luckily Drew Storen was able to lock this game down by getting David Ortiz to strikeout looking in the ninth inning. As a result, the Blue Jays came away with a 4-3 victory and a split of the four game series. After a pitcher&#8217;s duel between Clay Buchholz and J.A. Happ occupied most of this game, the Red Sox called on their elite setup duo of Koji Uehara and, eventually, Craig Kimbrel to lock down the game. Three walks, a hit batter, a couple of outs, and two singles later, it was 4-1 for the Blue Jays. After Brett Cecil shut down the Red Sox in the bottom of the eighth, Storen tried to undo all that by allowing the Red Sox to score two runs on three hits in the ninth inning, and pinch hitter David Ortiz coming to the plate. Thankfully, as soon as Pat Venditte was warming up and the pressure was on, Storen promptly punched out the veteran slugger and closed out the game. On the offensive side of things, Kevin Pillar continued his torrid play in the eighth spot, getting three hits in his three at-bats, and also registering his first walk of the season.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game</h3>
<p>With the bases loaded and one man out, John Farrell made the logical move to call on closer, and strikeout pitcher extraordinaire, to come in and put out the fire. It started well for the Boston closer, as he fanned Edwin Encarnacion with ease (which actually had the worst WPA of the game at -.145). Troy Tulowtizki stepped up, still continuing his early season slump, and immediately fell behind 1-2. He laid off of a tough curveball to make it 2-2, then Kimbrel missed wildly with two fastballs to walk Tulo and give the Blue Jays the lead (WPA of .226). Not to be outdone, Russell Martin stepped up and worked a <em>nine </em>pitch at-bat, before singling in the third and fourth runs of the game (WPA of .168). These runs ended up being crucial, with Boston putting up two scores against Storen in the ninth.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game</h3>
<p>Fans may have been expecting to see Roberto Osuna close out this game, but he was unavailable thanks to a minor injury he suffered on Monday:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gibbons on Roberto Osuna not avail: he&#39;s got a cracked fingernail (had one last yr). No timetable for his return. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehazelmae/status/722133693645520900">April 18, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>Instead, John Gibbons handed the closer duties for Monday over to Drew Storen. The former Washington National had his problems, however, allowing two runs to score and bringing up David Ortiz with the tying run on first base. Somehow Pat Venditte wasn&#8217;t brought into the game to face the power-hitting lefty, but Storen managed to wiggle out of trouble with a high fastball at the top of the strike zone to end the rally, and end the game. Aside from the aforementioned Encarnacion strikeout, the game ending K for Ortiz had the lowest WPA of the game at -.102.</p>
<h3>Forget Strikeouts, Double Plays Are All the Rage Nowadays</h3>
<p>You may have heard that the Blue Jays set a record yesterday by having struck out 136 times in their first 13 games. Today, the Blue Jays decided to tone down the strikeouts, only doing so five times (and actually drawing seven walks). However, they also grounded into five (!!!) double plays, three of which came off the bat of Jose Bautista. Obviously this isn&#8217;t something you want happening on a regular basis, and it definitely hurt the Blue Jays today as they wasted numerous early chances to score. Of course, the Blue Jays don&#8217;t choose when they hit their ground balls, whether a runner is on or not is irrelevant, so this isn&#8217;t something to get up in arms about. Maybe it&#8217;s a positive actually, as at least today the batters made contact, and weren&#8217;t striking out at historical rates.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>After letting David Price walk away over the off-season, many were doubting the ability of the Blue Jays starting pitching to have success in 2016. 14 games in, and that has proven to be false. They currently lead baseball in innings pitched by a rotation with 121, and sit ninth in ERA at 3.42. Today&#8217;s contributor was J.A. Happ, who has looked every bit like the Happ who was under the tutelage of pitching guru Ray Searage in Pittsburgh in 2015. Happ has now pitched 19 innings over his three starts, and has given up just four earned runs after his seven plus inning, one run masterpiece from today. Mark Shapiro aimed to improve the Blue Jays starting depth, and Happ having success is going a long way toward making that come to fruition.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to continue their recent winning ways for a three game series in Baltimore against the first place Orioles. At 7:05 PM on Tuesday night, Marcus Stroman (2-0, 4.22) will take the mound against Mike Wright (5 IP, 7.20).</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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