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	<title>Toronto &#187; Brett Cecil</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>The Replacements: How Do The New Bullpen Pieces Stack Up</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/06/the-replacements-how-do-the-new-bullpen-pieces-stack-up/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/06/the-replacements-how-do-the-new-bullpen-pieces-stack-up/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2017 12:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joaquin Benoit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For all the potential frustration from fans about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some small victories recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini. The Blue Jays bullpen [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For all the potential <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/24/half-baked-musings-on-a-frustrating-offseason-for-jays-fans">frustration from fans</a> about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/31/blue-jays-sign-lefty-reliever-j-p-howell/">small</a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/">victories</a> recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays bullpen struggled at the beginning of last year, and there&#8217;s no shortage of reasons why. The Blue Jays started the year with eight relievers, an abundance of high-leverage situations, and two struggling veterans in Drew Storen and Brett Cecil making the opening months quite nail-biting for Jays fans. John Gibbons emerging from the dugout with an arm raised was a source of stress more than relief, save for the mostly-automatic Osuna. The late season acquisitions of Joaquin Benoit and Grilli righted the ship, but with Benoit and Cecil leaving, the team had some holes to fill coming into the offseason.</p>
<p>Did they get the right guys? Let&#8217;s compare the newcomers to the players they&#8217;re replacing, and see how they stack up. To start off, we&#8217;ll do the lefties: Howell does J.P. stack up against Cecil?</p>
<h2>J.P. Howell vs. Brett Cecil</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8911 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png" alt="howell-cecil" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>By the 2016 numbers, this exchange works reasonably well for the Blue Jays. Howell seems to be a competent replacement for Cecil, and signed for less money and fewer years. One thing to note is they&#8217;re very different pitchers. Cecil was a fastball/curveball pitcher, famous for that sweeping hook that got him strikeouts when it was on. Even in what was perceived by some to be a down season, he still struck out 11 batters per nine innings. Howell is a sinkerballer, relying mostly on a mid 80s sinker and a solid defense to bail him out. With the excellent defensive infield the Jays have, this will likely work out just fine.</p>
<p>Something else Howell doesn&#8217;t have is Cecil&#8217;s history and familiarity with the organization and the fans. Given how some fans saw Cecil&#8217;s performance last season, this might be a bonus rather than a deficit. Howell is likely to be John Gibbons&#8217; first call when a left-hander is needed, regardless of if he does well or not out of the gate.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Smith is ostensibly replacing Benoit, but Benoit only spent part of the season with the Jays. So rather than compare Smith to just Benoit, we will compare him to the aggregate of Benoit and the man he replaced: Drew Storen.</p>
<h2>Joe Smith vs. Joaquin Benoit/Drew Storen</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-8912 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png" alt="smith-storoit" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>This is another one that seems to work out well for the Blue Jays. Though we do not have an aggregate DRA, the other numbers are fairly similar, with a lower K/9 from Smith than our Benoit/Storen hydra. Another thing we note looking at Benoit specifically is he had a much lower HR/9 rate with the Jays than his career would have suggested. Though he threw well with Toronto, trouble was coming, and they may have been wise to let him walk after getting as much as they could from him.</p>
<p>When we look beyond the numbers, there&#8217;s now a running similarity in the pitchers the Jays have brought in: they don&#8217;t throw as hard. Both Benoit and Storen were fastball/slider pitchers, and threw said fastballs in the low 90s. Smith, much like Howell, is a sinkerballer, and might touch 90 on a good day. This could be why both Smith and Howell were available when higher-end relief pitchers who throw much harder were <a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/report-yankees-aroldis-chapman-agree-to-five-year-86-million-deal/">getting a lot more money.</a></p>
<p>While the numbers suggest this should work fine for the Jays, there&#8217;s no certainty with relievers. They can fluctuate from year to year, as the Jays learned repeatedly last season. Storen struggled, Cecil scuffled early and righted the ship late, Grilli turned from a cheap trade acquisition into a key setup man, and Benoit became another crucial link in the middle inning chain the Jays constructed as the season went along. The bullpen on opening day was much different from the one that entered the playoffs, and that&#8217;s something to keep in mind if the newcomers blow a game or two early. But everything we can see suggests Smith and Howell were savvy pickups at a low cost, and should save Gibbons some heartache when he tries to match up later in games.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Southern Comfort: Assessing the Blue Jays at American Thanksgiving</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/25/southern-comfort-assessing-the-blue-jays-on-american-thanksgiving/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/25/southern-comfort-assessing-the-blue-jays-on-american-thanksgiving/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thanksgiving]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8085</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are often bought and sold as “Canada’s Team.” That’s completely acceptable; their run of success has given them inroads to capturing the hearts and minds of a whole new generation of baseball fans across the country. Even on the rare occasion that a Blue Jays game gets picked up for an American [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are often bought and sold as “Canada’s Team.” That’s completely acceptable; their run of success has given them inroads to capturing the hearts and minds of a whole new generation of baseball fans across the country. Even on the rare occasion that a Blue Jays game gets picked up for an American broadcast you’ll undoubtedly hear about how the Jays have a whole country behind them- particularly in reference to some electric Rogers Center crowds.</p>
<p>That’s something the team should wear as a badge of honor, as their rise to prominence has been no small feat. On the other hand, it does gloss over the contingent of American Blue Jays fans like myself who either have family ties to Canada or just happened to pick the team in the early stages of their baseball fandom. Consider this a shoutout to everyone else who’s checking in from south of the border.</p>
<p>Considering Canadian Thanksgiving <a title="ALDS Game 3 Recap: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 6; Tonight We Feast" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/09/alds-game-3-recap-blue-jays-7-rangers-6-tonight-we-feast/" target="_blank">produced a fairly satisfying series of events</a>, it seems right to capitalize on the American version of the holiday and take some time to reflect and appreciate some of the finer things, both large and small, concerning the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Firstly is the tangentially related Sean Rodriguez news. When rumors surfaced that the Jays were interested in Rodriguez, reaction was mostly muted approval, if not general apathy. There’s not much to dislike about picking up a capable player who can fill in all over the field. His career-year outlier seemed to make some wary, though as a hyper-versatile support player he would’ve made some sense. That being said, it’s no heartbreaking development that he’s off the market and with the Braves. Positional versatility is nice but it’s something that the team can tackle in other ways going forward. With both roster size and payroll allegedly set to expand the Jays will have ample opportunity to plug the myriad holes currently on the roster.</p>
<p>Missing out on Rodriguez, like the in-season trades for tertiary-or-lower contributors like Scott Feldman and the continuous murmur of fans questioning John Gibbons’ use of the eighth reliever, is fairly innocuous when all is said and done. Given all the lean years, I’m thankful that those are things worth fretting over from time to time. That’s not to say that the Jays can’t improve even at the furthest margins of the roster, but it does speak to how fortunate we’ve been to watch a damn good team go out and play every day for the past two seasons.</p>
<p>It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day developments of team building, particularly during the slowest parts of the offseason- if nothing else it’s a sign of the deep passion that people have for the sport and this team. Their success is worth acknowledging and celebrating, even if it requires us to step back for a second and peek at the big picture. Maybe it&#8217;s the eternal optimist in me, but it’s nice to worry about the last guy on the bench instead of finishing fourth or fifth in the division again.</p>
<p>Secondly is the recent departure of Brett Cecil. Though it’s been said by many others, I count myself lucky to have been on his side for so many years. He often bore the brunt of fan criticism when it was far from deserved and continued to go out there and do his thing. Cecil had stretches of sheer brilliance only for some fans to turn on him at the drop of a hat. Always a seemingly good soldier, I wish Brett Cecil nothing but the best in St. Louis and beyond. He won’t generate the same buzz as some of the team’s other departures, but he’s been a part of this organization for countless ups and downs and will be fondly missed.</p>
<p>There’s also the looming cloud that is the departure of team pillars Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Not to harp on the subject too much further, but we should all be thankful for the time they spent in the organization as well as the tremendous moments that each has authored over the years.</p>
<p>We should also be thankful for the approach that Toronto’s decision makers have exhibited thus far. They don’t appear set to hamstring the team&#8217;s future by kowtowing to sentimental attachment. The Kendrys Morales move should recoup a healthy chunk of the lost production at a fraction of the cost and leaves the team with more flexibility than a megadeal would. It’ll be sad to see at least one, and probably both, of the team’s big sluggers head for richer pastures, but there’s an evident plan in place with plenty of capable personnel waiting to execute that vision. Even if the end of the era is upon us, the sky isn’t falling given that the front office just built one of baseball’s best rotations at a fantastic price and the left side of the infield is still occupied by superstars. It’ll be tough to ascend to greater heights without Bautista and Encarnacion in the lineup, but it’s just a new set of obstacles for Toronto to tackle. For fans who have sat through a lot worse, we should embrace the challenge. Better to be here than climbing up from irrelevancy.</p>
<p>Lastly, and I feel comfortable enough to speak for everyone at BP Toronto on this one, I’d like to extend my gratitude to anyone and everyone who shows up to read what we write or listen to what we have to say. On an individual level this site is an endeavor that we’ve chosen to pursue because we care deeply about the Jays, and the idea that we can spend time discussing something we all love is tremendously fulfilling. Without you that all collapses, so a heartfelt thank you for making us a part of your baseball routine.</p>
<p>The offseason can drag on for what feels like forever and while we’d all love if spring training started tomorrow, it also presents an opportunity for us to take stock of the team and the direction they’re headed. In the spirit of the holiday, there’s a lot we should be thankful for and even more to look forward to.</p>
<p>If spring training could start tomorrow though, that’d be pretty great.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>On Brett Cecil, Ignorance, and the Illusion of Happiness</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 11:46:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7334</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a famous French novel from the revolutionary period written by Claire de Duras titled Ourika. It deals with, among many other themes, the question of whether ignorance truly is bliss. Ourika is a black woman who was brought to France at the age of two from Senegal where she was orphaned and destined to become [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a famous French novel from the revolutionary period written by Claire de Duras titled <em>Ourika. </em>It deals with, among many other themes, the question of whether ignorance truly is bliss. Ourika is a black woman who was brought to France at the age of two from Senegal where she was orphaned and destined to become a slave in some western country. She grows up in a privileged white household and does not realize that she is different from those around her, until she one day overhears a conversation about how she is headed for a life of loneliness and solitude because no high class Frenchman will want to marry a black woman. Following that episode, her life goes into a tailspin that sees her spend the majority of the short novel questioning her existence, and whether or not she would have been better off being a slave anywhere in the world than being &#8220;free&#8221; in France.</p>
<p>***<br />
The Blue Jays season ended on Wednesday evening. It&#8217;s finished. They won&#8217;t be playing a regular season game again until April. When they do, the roster is likely to look different than it did at the Rogers Centre on that summer-like autumn day earlier this week. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion will likely be hitting home runs for separate teams, unable to congratulate each other after each ball leaves their respective ballparks. R.A. Dickey is going to be fluttering his knuckleball in a different city, probably one that houses a National League team that could be more conducive to his style of pitching. Those players seem like they are the Toronto Blue Jays. What is this team without its bash brothers? What is it without the insight and stability that comes from its knuckleballer? So many memories have been made recently, and these guys were huge parts of it.</p>
<p>Then, there&#8217;s Brett Cecil. The longest tenured Blue Jays player on the roster in 2016 is set to become a free agent for the first time in his life once the World Series ends. The man has been with the organization since 2007. He&#8217;s seen J.P. Ricciardi, Alex Anthopoulos, and now Ross Atkins. Yet, the city has a strange relationship with Cecil. He&#8217;s been the epitome of familiarity to this franchise over the years; a symbol of the past and present. But, that has not been enough for some fans. Year in and year out, Cecil and his family have been the <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/cecil-wife-finished-with-social-media-1.261242" target="_blank">subject of hateful vitriol and online harassment</a> from the people of Toronto. It didn&#8217;t matter how good he performed, some people always found a way to blame him for the Blue Jays&#8217; shortcomings.</p>
<p>***<br />
After making his big league debut in 2009, Brett Cecil took a common route to becoming a relief ace. He failed as a starter for four seasons before finally making the full time switch to reliever. Normally, when starters do this, they do so to play up their fastball, allowing them to have more success with that pitch due to increased velocity. This was definitely true for Cecil, who averaged just 89.6 mph on his fastball as a starter, compared to 92.1 mph as a reliever. But what allowed Cecil to have success as a reliever wasn&#8217;t the fastball velocity &#8211; though it didn&#8217;t hurt. Rather, it was his curveball, the one he used just 10.23% of the time as a rookie in 2009, but as 46.13% of his pitches in his 2016 campaign.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not just any curveball. It&#8217;s been one of the best curveballs in baseball over the past four seasons. It has been a thing of beauty &#8211; one of the reasons to turn Blue Jays games on over the years. Since becoming a reliever full time in 2013, Cecil pitched in 205 regular season innings across 243 games. He registered an ERA of just 2.90 in that span, including a period at the end of the 2015 season where he didn&#8217;t allow a run from June 22nd until 2016. In his four seasons as a reliever, Cecil used his repertoire to register a 30.5% strikeout percentage. However, his walk percentage in that time was 8.3%, and that is my best guess as to why he is so disliked.</p>
<p>There is something about walks that turns people off. I don&#8217;t understand it, because way more often than not, Brett Cecil was a sight to see in his Toronto tenure. He walked a few too many batters, but walks are just walks, and at the end of the day, if a pitcher is able to pitch over 200 innings with a walk rate of over eight percent but still limit the damage to under an ERA of 3.00, well, don&#8217;t you have to applaud that? Don&#8217;t you have to recognize him as one of the game&#8217;s elite relievers? Certainly one of baseball&#8217;s best left handed relievers, at the very least.</p>
<p>***<br />
If Brett&#8217;s time in Toronto ended on Wednesday night, it was a very fitting way for him to go out. He faced three batters, two of them lefties. 50% of the pitches he threw were curveballs. Three up, three down. No walks needed. As he leaped off the mound, the sluggish Toronto crowd seemed to be unaware that their longest serving player might have just ended his eight year career with the team. Few fans stood and clapped. Those who did, did so loud and majestically. It&#8217;s as if Cecil&#8217;s entire Blue Jays career took place within that thirty second span. He was fantastic, yet, to an outside observer, it would have seemed like he didn&#8217;t even exist. He could have done anything on that mound, and the reception would have been the same.</p>
<p>Maybe Brett is our Ourika. Fans have been ignorant about him since the beginning. They seemed to have been happy only when he struggled and they were able to aim their vulgarities at him. But what is that? That isn&#8217;t happiness. That&#8217;s some demonic feeling of being able to say &#8220;I told you so&#8221; once in a while. All this time, the people could have been appreciating Cecil for what he has been &#8211; one of the greatest relievers this franchise has ever seen. Instead, they chose ignorance and a false sense of happiness.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s ironic that the last quote Cecil gave to the <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelgrange/status/788902964849209344" target="_blank">Toronto media</a> was &#8220;If I don&#8217;t come back, seeing this place full is what I&#8217;m going to miss.&#8221; Of all the players on the Blue Jays, he never truly got to have that full stadium behind him, cheering him on as he did his job. Instead, there were always people who wished to see him fail, drowning out those of us who saw him for who he truly was &#8211; the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/photos/2013/07/25/jays_make_guest_appearance_at_bloorview_hospital.html" target="_blank">kind hearted</a> lefty with the get-me-over fastball and the devastating curveball.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Brett Cecil is Enjoying Playing Meaningful September Baseball</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/20/brett-cecil-is-enjoying-playing-meaningful-september-baseball/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Sep 2016 11:40:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Hentgen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Halladay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – It took 22 seasons for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs after winning it all in 1993. For every player that played in the interim, meaningful baseball in September was merely a myth. For a fan base, that’s an eternity. For players, that’s the length of a career, and then some. None [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – It took 22 seasons for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs after winning it all in 1993. For every player that played in the interim, meaningful baseball in September was merely a myth.</p>
<p>For a fan base, that’s an eternity. For players, that’s the length of a career, and then some. None know this better than some of the long-time Blue Jays in those dark ages. Roy Halladay, Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, and Casey Janssen were all drafted by the Jays, had varying levels of success in a Toronto uniform, endured the hardships, but never got to experience meaningful games down the stretch, despite their patience and faith.</p>
<p>For Brett Cecil, his patience is starting to pay off. A 2007 first round pick of the Jays, it took seven seasons and 276 Major League appearances before getting to experience it. With the club in the midst of another meaningful run in September and the American League East crown in the balance the left-hander is taking it all in.</p>
<p>“It’s a lot of fun playing in games like this, playing in September and playing in games that matter,” Cecil said last week before a game against the Boston Red Sox. “First four years or so of my career I was playing, I don’t like to call it meaningless baseball because you always want to try and improve yourself in some area every game that you go out… but, trust me, it’s a lot more fun to be playing real meaningful games and try to win a division.”</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Trust me, it’s a lot more fun to be playing real meaningful games and try to win a division.”</p></blockquote>
<p>That shouldn’t surprise anyone, obviously any competitor wants to win, especially one who gets paid to help a franchise win games. However, what might surprise you is that the team’s struggles before their enchanted postseason run last season made the Jays’ recent success a little bit sweeter for Cecil.</p>
<p>“I feel like for myself, personally, it’s been good for me to have those struggles that I’ve had in the past and even now in your career because you look for ways to get better,” Cecil said. “You learn from your mistakes. You learn how to get better. You better yourself as a person. You better yourself as a pitcher.</p>
<p>“I don’t think anybody can have 100 % success in this game. There’s going to be some downfall at some point. Whether it’s a team, whether it’s your career personally. I think it’s great for everybody to have that.”</p>
<p>While the Dunkirk, Maryland native has experienced his share of losses and failures, both personally and as a team, he’s also had plenty of success at the Major League level, especially since converting full-time to a reliever in September 2012. In the three full seasons that followed Cecil revolutionized his game to become one of the best relievers in the game, posting a 2.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9 between 2013 and 2015.</p>
<p>Out of the bullpen Cecil has flirted with the club’s closer role on a couple of occasions, but nothing was quite as impressive as his stretch in the second half of last season. From June 24, 2015 and into the playoffs Cecil was arguably the most dominant reliever in all of baseball. Sporting a streak of 39 straight appearances without allowing an earned run that included a 0.68 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9.</p>
<p>It all came to a tragic end for Cecil in the eighth inning of Game 2 of the ALDS series against the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre. After retiring the first two batters he faced, including a strikeout of Prince Fielder, Cecil gave up a single to Mike Napoli through the right side of the infield that scored Marcus Stroman&#8217;s inherited runner to tie the game at 4. Then Cecil caught Napoli off of first base with a pickoff attempt and became part of a run down between first and second. In the midst of tagging out the Rangers&#8217; first baseman for the final out of the frame he tore his left calf muscle. The injury forced him to miss the remainder of the playoffs, and left him cheering for his club from the sidelines as he voraciously attempted to overcome it.</p>
<p>While he chalked up just two innings of postseason experience as a result, it was more than a big enough bite for Cecil to want more. It’s that taste of success and finally experiencing meaningful baseball, combined with the club’s struggles earlier in his career that makes him want it even more this season.</p>
<p>“It’s both. It’s everything,” Cecil said. “It’s all the work you put off the field, in the weight room, and the off-season. You want it for your teammates. You want to do well for them</p>
<p>“We had a taste of it last year and we have a bad taste left in our mouth,”</p>
<blockquote><p>“We had a taste of it last year and we have a bad taste left in our mouth.”</p></blockquote>
<p>The Jays know how close they came last season, and that unfinished business has become a rallying cry for the team. But even with the contributions of Jason Grilli, Joaquin Benoit, and the ever-reliable Roberto Osuna at the back of the pen, a return to form by Cecil would drastically alter the Jays’ chances down the stretch.</p>
<p>The 30-year-old left-hander is trying to shake off an uncharacteristic season, and feels he’s almost there. Cecil, who hasn’t allowed a run since Aug. 21, now has a 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 12.6 K/9 in 22 games since July 22<sup>nd</sup>.</p>
<p>“I feel like my stuff’s been good all year,” Cecil said, who now has a 4.26 ERA on the season, nearly two full runs more than in 2015. “I feel like this year more than not it’s been bad pitches or poor pitch selection (that has hurt me). I feel like I’m going to fix that.&#8221;</p>
<p>“I felt really good my last couple of outings. I was telling people the other day that I don’t remember the last time I was consistently 94, 93, 94, 94 94 for two outings in a row. … It’s good for me to see that. Then obviously I know my breaking ball is where it needs to be. It’s sharp. I keep telling them, ‘guys, I have 30 innings. Throw me every day. I can go every other day for the rest of the season if you guys need me or want me.’ I’m a fresh arm right now. I’m feeling good so hopefully we can stretch this thing for a while.”</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I have 30 innings. Throw me every day. I can go every other day for the rest of the season if you guys need me or want me. I’m a fresh arm right now.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Regardless of where Cecil is slotted in the bullpen depth chart as the season winds down, or what the stats say about his year, the six-foot-three lefty’s main concern is the team record. You can throw away any personal stats and ignore anything he’s accomplished this year. At this time of season, when it matters most, it’s all about what the team can do.</p>
<p>“This isn’t an individual sport,” Cecil said bluntly.</p>
<p>Taking matters further, Cecil knows his role and what it takes to be a successful reliever. Part of that is having a short memory on the mound and not letting anything affect you. The other part comes from some advice given to him by former Blue Jays ace and current special assistant to the club Pat Hentgen.</p>
<p>“Hentgen always told us ‘you got to treat every outing like its Game 7 of the World Series,’” Cecil said. “If you’re a reliever coming in the fifth and getting the last out of the fifth<sup> </sup>inning or you’re Osuna getting the last three outs of the game. Every single out is important.&#8221;</p>
<p>“I know this team. The team knows itself, they know they can comeback from a pretty big deficit. We can come back in a short amount of time. That’s why I say every out is just as important as getting three outs in the ninth or being down 11-2 and getting outs in the fifth or sixth. It’s just as important.”</p>
<p>Whether or not Cecil will actually see Game 7 of the World Series in the future is yet to be seen, but he’s going to treat every appearance like it is. Until he gets there himself, he’s going to enjoy some meaningful baseball for a second consecutive season after a long stretch of losing and will try to avenge last season&#8217;s disappointment to wash that bad taste out of his mouth.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Should the Blue Jays Bring Back Brett Cecil?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/06/should-the-blue-jays-bring-back-brett-cecil/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Sep 2016 11:02:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6327</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Much has been written about the Blue Jays’ impending offseason and the fate of the team’s big name free agents: Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Among the team’s second tier free agents, consensus appears to have Michael Saunders and R.A. Dickey likely departing alongside the aforementioned sluggers. One forgotten free agent to be is Brett [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Much has been written about the Blue Jays’ impending offseason and the fate of the team’s big name free agents: Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Among the team’s second tier free agents, consensus appears to have Michael Saunders and R.A. Dickey likely departing alongside the aforementioned sluggers. One forgotten free agent to be is Brett Cecil; a player who many just assumed would leave to pursue a big contract on the back of an immaculate 2015.</p>
<p>For Cecil, his free agent year is a bit of bad timing. Had he hit the market last season he would’ve been paid handsomely as one of the top relievers in all of baseball. There was simply no way the Blue Jays would pony up to pay for their top setup man, especially considering the other players in limbo. That’s well in the rearview mirror now, as Cecil’s poor season might have opened the door for a return.</p>
<p>It’s no secret that Cecil has struggled this year. Our own <a title="Why Brett Cecil is Not Getting Good Results" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/" target="_blank">Gideon Turk dove into the numbers</a> to see what’s been ailing the lefty and it appears there’s nothing overtly wrong with him. His velocity, movement and usage have all held steady. His command has wavered a little bit, but he’s also been bitten by a bit of bad luck (he’s sporting a HR/FB rate of 19.2 percent, well above his career mark of 11.9 percent). There are problems, sure, but nothing that screams out for a drop of this magnitude.</p>
<p>That alone points to potential for a return to form (or something close to it) going forward. Would that notion, coupled with Cecil’s depressed value, be enough to tempt the Jays into bringing back their long-time left hander? And at what price?</p>
<p>With that in mind, I took a look at left handed relievers who have signed deals in the past three years to see how Cecil stacks up. Cecil is currently making $3.8 million so I ignored quality relievers who are making peanuts while still under team control.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/LeftyFAs.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6329 " src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/LeftyFAs-1024x283.jpg" alt="LeftyFAs" width="782" height="216" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Cecil is one of the rare few to have had a down year right before hitting free agency. He and Antonio Bastardo both suffered seasons well below their career norms (it should be noted that average DRA and WARP numbers are calculated with only full-time relief seasons) but that didn’t stop Bastardo from getting a nice deal from the Mets.</p>
<p>In terms of strikeout stuff, Cecil actually matches up well with Tony Sipp’s superb 2015. The only issues are Cecil’s list-high WHIP and ERA. Those are hardly the best ways to evaluate a pitcher but it’s tough to deny that those are ugly numbers. His WARP and DRA this year are well off his career averages as a reliever, but as Gideon showed, he’s not all that far removed from the stuff that made him a successful setup man for the past three seasons.</p>
<p>While signing a reliever with an ERA north of four might be a tough sell to any fan base, it’s not as though teams haven’t taken chances on pitchers before. Zach Duke and Sean Burnett on the list above were essentially signed on the back of one great year. Duke has managed to continue his excellent work while Burnett’s injury problems have prevented us from making a final judgment. Point being, it&#8217;s not unprecedented for teams to ignore much larger samples to chase a promising performance. In Cecil&#8217;s case, teams would be ignoring the smaller sample in hopes of some rebound that seems like a safer bet on the surface and might push his market value up a shade.</p>
<p>In the end, with relative youth and proven performance on his side, Cecil seems in line to make somewhere north of $6 million annually on a multi-year deal. His sterling track record should make up for the 2016 blip on the radar whereas the other players on the list were rewarded for their upward trend. While he&#8217;s in the midst of a down year, Cecil is almost surely the best pitcher on the list above and it seems that $6 million is simply the going rate for quality left handed relief. Any team that could sign him at Boone Logan terms (three years, $5.5M) or less would be looking at a great signing. He wasn’t going to approach Andrew Miller terms (four years, $9M) but probably could’ve pushed his way towards the $8 million threshold.</p>
<p>A season in line with his normal output would’ve probably priced Cecil out of Toronto’s budget but it feels like the Jays will have some payroll to work with this offseason. Whether they choose to keep Cecil in the fold remains to be seen but betting on a bounce back could pay off down the line. Getting a reliever of Cecil&#8217;s caliber on a possible slight underpay would be a slam dunk deal for any team, and the Jays would surely love to reap the benefits of any positive regression.</p>
<p>There’s a school of thought out there that says you should never pay big money for relievers. What price would be right for Cecil to you?</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why Brett Cecil is Not Getting Good Results</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 12:55:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brett Cecil has been with the Blue Jays organization since he was drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007. After struggling to stick as a starter, Cecil has carved out a nice career as a&#160;high-leverage, power reliever. However, he&#8217;s still had his share of bumps along his road to stardom. Perhaps the past two [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brett Cecil has been with the Blue Jays organization since he was drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007. After struggling to stick as a starter, Cecil has carved out a nice career as a&nbsp;high-leverage, power reliever. However, he&#8217;s still had his share of bumps along his road to stardom. Perhaps the past two years represent this as well as any sample possibly could. From June 24th&nbsp;onward last season, Brett Cecil did not allow an earned run. During that stretch he pitched 31 2/3 innings, struck out 44 batters, and walked just four.&nbsp;Nobody was better.</p>
<p>That scoreless streak ended in his second appearance of the 2016 season, on April 5th, when&nbsp;Cecil allowed two earned runs. Since then, Cecil has gone on to allow another 13 earned runs, for a total of 15 in 27 2/3 innings pitched. That works out to an ERA of 4.88. He&#8217;s struck out 31 batters in that time span, and walked eight. After being&nbsp;the best relief pitcher in baseball for more than three months last season, Cecil has been pitching like the guy that failed in the rotation; that is to say, very poorly.</p>
<p>Why? What&nbsp;is going wrong in 2016 that didn&#8217;t happen in 2015 that is causing Cecil to fail so much?</p>
<p>With Cecil, it&#8217;s all about the curveball. His success, and his failure, is predicated on its use. Last year, when <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/brett-cecil-changes-curve-2015-no-runs-allowed/" target="_blank">he wasn&#8217;t using it as much as he should have been</a>, he struggled. When he increased its frequency, he started to get results. The reasoning is simple: It&#8217;s one of the best pitches in baseball. Logic dictates that the more it&#8217;s thrown,&nbsp;the better it will be for Cecil. Comparing Cecil&#8217;s pitch usage from last year to this year, you can see that its use has remained relatively constant.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg"><img class="wp-image-6201 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="500" height="333"></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">We can&#8217;t point to something in that chart and say that it is why Cecil has been struggling. However, in 2016, batters are hitting .268/.317/.375 off of the curveball. Last year, it was .152/.170/.207. The obvious hypothesis to make from those two sets of numbers is that Cecil isn&#8217;t throwing the same curveball this season that he was last year. If it isn&#8217;t the same curveball, it&nbsp;doesn&#8217;t matter <i>how</i>&nbsp;much he throws it. Something must be different in the stuff that has allowed batters to rip&nbsp;what was one of the deadliest pitches in baseball just 12 months ago, right?. Let&#8217;s look at the data.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-30-at-1.24.54-PM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-6110" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Screen-Shot-2016-08-30-at-1.24.54-PM-1024x139.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-08-30 at 1.24.54 PM" width="750" height="102"></a></p>
<p>Apparently the <em>obvious</em> hypothesis was wrong. The velocity is basically the&nbsp;same as it was in 2015. The spin rate is largely the&nbsp;same. The breaking distance, both horizontal and vertical, is the same. The movement, is the same. The breaking angles are&#8230;the same. In general, it has been the same pitch thrown in 2016 that was thrown in 2015. And yet, Cecil is getting killed by the opposition when he throws it, as if he was a lion in Zimbabwe and they are dentists.</p>
<p>So what&#8217;s different? If it isn&#8217;t the stuff, what is it? Well, it could be command of the pitch. A curveball down and out of the zone is effective. The same pitch left in the middle&nbsp;is not. Here&#8217;s Cecil&#8217;s placement of curve balls in 2015 versus 2016. Note the percentage changes in the upper half boxes.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/CecilCurveCommand.gif"><img class="wp-image-6202 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/CecilCurveCommand.gif" alt="CecilCurveCommand" width="350" height="351"></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">Cecil has started to miss with his curveball more often in 2016, leading to hanging pitches that batters can take advantage of for hits. When the curveball is left up in the zone, it becomes useless. It&#8217;s meant to get batters to chase, and if they are getting&nbsp;pitches up&nbsp;in the zone, they are going to go for hits more often than when the pitch is down at their knees or below. Relievers pitch in such small samples that only a few balls left up in the zone can have a drastic impact on one&#8217;s stats, as the curve has had in 2016 for Cecil.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">There&#8217;s another funky statistic surrounding Cecil this season, and that&#8217;s the home run ball. In a full season last year, Cecil allowed four home runs. This year, in half the number of innings pitched, Cecil has already allowed five home runs. Surprisingly, this is good news for Cecil. Why? Because it&#8217;s completely unsustainable. Yes, the home runs are being caused because he cannot command his pitches, and thus batters are getting better pitches to hit, but Cecil&#8217;s HR/FB rate&nbsp;right now is 19.2 percent. His career mark is 11.9. A jump that high is not a sustainable&nbsp;leap, especially because his <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=446399&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=01/01/2017&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA" target="_blank">fastball command</a> is virtually the same as it was <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=446399&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=01/01/2015&amp;endDate=01/01/2016&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA" target="_blank">last year</a>, or even slightly better. Reliever sample sizes are so small&nbsp;that one bad pitch here and another mistake there means numbers can be skewed greatly by factors that likely aren&#8217;t talent based. Relievers are known to be volatile for this exact reason. For Cecil, it seems as if the reasoning behind the increased HR/FB rate is just that; bad luck. Given enough time, that should correct itself. Some flyballs are going to start staying the ballpark, and Cecil will find himself on the right side of success again.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Cecil has struggled this year. There&#8217;s no denying it. However, he&#8217;s just as talented as he was last season, and his stuff is just as good. It seems as if it has just been a case of Cecil not having the best command of his curveball thus far, and a bit of bad luck mixed in as well. The Blue Jays&nbsp;desperately need Cecil to return to his form for the stretch run if they want to go far, and it&#8217;s encouraging that the problems aren&#8217;t very deeply rooted. If he had lost velocity, that would be a concern. If his curveball wasn&#8217;t spinning like it used to, that would be a concern. But, some command issues that have plagued him all his career in separate pockets resurfacing? That isn&#8217;t the biggest deal. He can work those out, and if he does, with some good luck, can once again be counted on to get outs in big spots for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">His true talent level isn&#8217;t the best relief pitcher in baseball as the stats showed last year, but it isn&#8217;t one of the worst either. There&#8217;s a happy medium, and now Cecil just has to find it. Sooner, rather than later, would be preferable.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>All stats as of August 31st 2016<br />
Lead Photo:&nbsp;Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 2, Mariners 0; Happ Shuts Out Seattle For Six, Salvages Series Finale</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/recap-blue-jays-2-mariners-0-happ-shuts-out-seattle-for-six-salvages-series-finale/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2016 19:38:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory. Though the Jays have [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory.</p>
<p>Though the Jays have been successful against Miley previously in the left-hander&#8217;s career, they weren&#8217;t able to manage much against him on this day, as he scattered four hits and two walks over his six innings of work. He did allow a home run to Edwin Encarnacion in the fourth inning and a manufactured run in the sixth, as Josh Thole scored when Josh Donaldson grounded into a double play. The Mariners bullpen kept it clean after that, but it didn&#8217;t matter terribly, as a day after scoring 14 runs, they were unable to mount any offense at all.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ may have thrown six shutout innings, but he was not without his jams, walking four hitters and hitting a batter, even though he allowed just one hit. The most trouble he had was a walk to Chris Ianetta followed by him hitting Robinson Cano in the top of the fourth inning, but he struck out Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee and got Kyle Seager to pop out to quell the threat. Happ seemed to struggle with his control at times, but in the end, got the result he wanted. The Jays bullpen came in and locked down the last three innings, much to the relief of a fanbase used to them making things a little more interesting. There was a pinch-hit appearance from former Jay Adam Lind in the ninth inning, though Jays closer Roberto Osuna struck him out.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The game was scoreless through four innings,  before Encarnacion&#8217;s home run off Miley broke the shutout. His solo home run to deep centre field increased the Jays&#8217; chances to win by 13.9 percentage points, and gave them a lead they would not relinquish.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Mariners threatened in several innings against Happ. Mike Zunino walked to open up the third inning, and was promptly caught stealing. Happ threw a pitch that bounced well in front of the plate, Thole got to it, but Zunino had already taken off for second. Thole&#8217;s throw easily beat the slow footed Mariners catcher, snuffing out a chance for a rally. This lowered their chances to win by 6.6 percentage points. Zunino getting caught stealing was followed by a single, which would have moved him to second if he was still on base.</p>
<h3>Figuring Out The Bullpen</h3>
<p>Drew Storen being designated for assignment was a mild surprise to those following the Jays. Not based on his performance, but his contract, as the Jays will have to pay around $2 million to make him disappear. It is a signal that the club has not been satisfied with the effort from their bullpen so far, and that some roles are up for grabs. This game had the Jays using their preferred 7-8-9 guys, with Brett Cecil, Jason Grilli, and Roberto Osuna finishing the game cleanly. Cecil having a clean inning was a very encouraging sign, given his struggles of late. The Jays will need him and others to step up down the stretch.</p>
<h3>Thole Holds the Fort</h3>
<p>Generally, a Josh Thole start has meant one deep, dark hole in the Jays&#8217; lineup, a bottomless pit of despair from which there is no escape. Thole&#8217;s last few games have seen him contributing positively on offense. In Thole&#8217;s last five starts, he&#8217;s 5 for 14 with two doubles, two walks, and five RBIs. Given his abysmal .159/.250/.216 line coming into the game, anything Thole gives them with the bat while Russ Martin sits is a bonus.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow has the San Diego Padres making a rare visit to the Rogers Centre, in a game that starts at 7:07 PM ET. The Jays send Aaron Sanchez (10-1, 2.87 ERA) to the mound. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea (5-4, 5.01 ERA). Following the All-Star game, Sanchez has continued to pitch well, even as Jays fans wonder if and when he&#8217;ll be sent to the bullpen. Rea is coming off a loss to the Cardinals where he went six innings and allowed four runs. This is the third interleague game he&#8217;s started this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 3</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/16/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-3/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/16/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2016 15:08:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2725</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at www.mikesonne.ca. Every two weeks, we take an [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at<a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/"> www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
<p>Every two weeks, we take an exciting journey into discovering who has the best stuff on the Toronto Blue Jays. You can see the last two updates below, but it&#8217;s time for Stuff Report #3. Join me, won&#8217;t you?</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/">Stuff Report Volume 1</a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/">Stuff Report Volume 2</a></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Starters</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2731" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Starters-Table-v3-1024x187.png" alt="Starters Table v3" width="734" height="134" /></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Starters-V-3.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2729" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Starters-V-3-1024x743.png" alt="Jays Starters - V 3" width="636" height="461" /></a></p>
<p>Everything seems relatively stable for the Jays starters. While the numbers appear to be trending downward for most of them, the results have remained consistent &#8211; and consistently awesome. Aaron Sanchez remains the only Jays starter with &#8220;elite&#8221; stuff, though Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman remain elite with their results. In a long season, there will obviously be bumps in the road (Like this past weekend in Texas, and Stroman&#8217;s outing against San Francisco), but the recent spike in K&#8217;s for Stroman shows the ability for these pitchers to adapt to their competition. Stuff is a metric that can quantify some of a pitcher&#8217;s ability, though many other things go into developing an elite MLB pitcher. This week, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/09/on-stroman-sanchez-and-the-struggle-of-fastball-classification/">Kyle Matte wrote about spin rates and fastball quantification</a> &#8211; which is one of the most interesting pieces I have read in ages. Small changes in vertical and horizontal movement can generate just as much weak contact as over-powering stuff. The Jays staff is attacking the world in a lot of different ways, and it&#8217;s exciting to watch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=684285883&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Relievers</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Relievers-Table-v3.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2730" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Relievers-Table-v3-1024x251.png" alt="Relievers Table v3" width="787" height="193" /></a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief-V-3.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2728" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief-V-3-1024x742.png" alt="Jays Relief - V 3" width="612" height="444" /></a></p>
<p>The Jays relievers are still struggling on the mound, but there are signs of life. Drew Storen has disappeared, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/">but Gavin Floyd has become what Storen was supposed to be.</a> Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini continues to have elite stuff, and Roberto Osuna remains one of the best in the MLB.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=682086183&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>However, one concerning trend emerged recently when looking at the Stuff Metric. The statistic was originally designed as a method for quantifying demands on the arm during pitching, and as a possible tool to identify injury trends. Brett Cecil has never had overpowering Stuff, but this season he has remained around league average. During the past two weeks, Cecil&#8217;s stuff plummeted &#8211; dropping from near 0.4, to &#8211; 0.65. This was a sign of a change in Cecil&#8217;s break distance, velocity, and change of speeds. It didn&#8217;t look good, and then Cecil hit the disabled list with an arm injury. Hopefully Brett is able to successfully recover from the triceps injury, regain his strength, and enjoy the company of his <a href="https://twitter.com/SNBarryDavis/status/729807064743043072">new family member</a>. We will have to keep an eye out for similar drops from other pitchers.</p>
<p><em>For more information on the &#8220;Stuff Metric&#8221;, visit <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/">www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 10: Jonah Keri and Wish Lists for Winning Streaks</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2016 10:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Star]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Lincecum]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2308</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jonah Keri of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/jonahkeri" target="_blank">Jonah Keri</a> of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. They also answer a bunch of listener questions, give a gold star to the broadcast, and express their wish for Tim Lincecum to someday don a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>What&#8217;s Wrong with Brett Cecil?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/04/whats-wrong-with-brett-cecil/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/04/whats-wrong-with-brett-cecil/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 May 2016 13:22:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Bradburn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2136</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To put it nicely, Brett Cecil has had a rough start to 2016. Coming off of an absolutely dominant second half in 2015, Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; fans were probably expecting something better from their elite left-handed reliever. Instead, he&#8217;s been downright pedestrian. Through the second half of 2015, Cecil&#8217;s OPS-against was .326. This season, Cecil&#8217;s OBP-against [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To put it nicely, Brett Cecil has had a rough start to 2016. Coming off of an absolutely dominant second half in 2015, Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; fans were probably expecting something better from their elite left-handed reliever. Instead, he&#8217;s been downright pedestrian.</p>
<p>Through the second half of 2015, Cecil&#8217;s OPS-against was .326. This season, Cecil&#8217;s OBP-against alone is up at .400. His OPS-against is .900. To put that into perspective, the average hitter against Cecil is 2015 Anthony Rizzo. But what&#8217;s actually wrong with Cecil? We can look at the statistics all we want, but what is he doing differently?</p>
<h3>Is it just noise?</h3>
<p>Cecil&#8217;s BABIP is about .100 points higher than his career norm. His strand rate is also about 10 percentage points lower than last season. That might indicate he&#8217;s experiencing some bad luck. Furthermore, we&#8217;re working with a very small sample size of only 9.1 innings. That doesn&#8217;t tell the whole story though, as Cecil has faced 46 batters. That means he has faced 19 more than the minimum, which is at least enough plate appearances to start noticing some patterns.</p>
<p>For what it&#8217;s worth, I still believe Cecil will straighten this out. But a FIP of 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.82 indicate that some slumping is going on.</p>
<h3>The Diagnosis</h3>
<p>First, I usually like to check pitch velocity: it&#8217;s a quick and easy place to start. The only pitch that seems to be down any notable amount is his changeup, which has decreased from 85.3 mph to 83 mph on average. There are two reasons this doesn&#8217;t actually raise any concern: the speed of a changeup isn&#8217;t what makes it effective, and Cecil has only thrown it 5.7 percent of the time. That&#8217;s 10 pitches. Even further, it&#8217;s been his best pitch so far and has shown an increase in movement. That&#8217;s a good sign and definitely isn&#8217;t what&#8217;s wrong with Cecil.</p>
<p>While we&#8217;re looking at specific pitches, let&#8217;s take a look at Cecil&#8217;s swinging strikes then. Only nine percent of Cecil&#8217;s pitches have resulted in a swing-and-a-miss. This is decidedly down from his 2015 mark of 15 percent, and even further from his 2014 mark of 16.7 percent. Whiffs are good, and Cecil just isn&#8217;t getting them as much so far this season.</p>
<p>The pitch that seems to be the biggest culprit to this regression is the one you probably suspect the most: the curveball. In 2014, Cecil&#8217;s curveball got offered at and was missed 29.3 percent of the time. In 2015, when Cecil threw the curveball, major league hitters hit nothing but air 27.7 percent of the time. That&#8217;s an otherworldly rate at which to embarrass the best hitters in the world. However, in 2016, Cecil&#8217;s curveball has only generated an 11.4 percent whiff rate. The pitch that accounted for a .373 OPS in 2015 just isn&#8217;t missing bats. But why?</p>
<h3>The Prescription</h3>
<p>Pulling zone profiles from Brooks Baseball for pitches identified by PITCHf/x as &#8216;curveball&#8217; and &#8216;slow curve&#8217; unfortunately doesn&#8217;t afford us much comparison. Here&#8217;s the second-half of 2015:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=07/14/2015&amp;endDate=12/31/2015&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s 2016 so far:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=05/01/2016&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p>They&#8217;re almost identical. In fact, you could argue that Cecil had more &#8216;mistake&#8217; pitches in 2015. Instead then, let&#8217;s look at where Cecil generated his whiffs on those pitches:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=07/14/2015&amp;endDate=12/31/2015&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=whiff&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=05/01/2016&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=whiff&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p>Cecil is getting way fewer whiffs on his bread-and-butter pitch: the curveball low to his glove side; down-and-in to righties, down-and-away to lefties. The surrounding zones have also suffered quite a bit. Perhaps batters are just learning to lay off that pitch, knowing that it will break out of the zone for a ball.</p>
<p>Judging by the 2015 usage, Cecil&#8217;s curveball can still dominate opposing hitters when left in the bottom-third of the strikezone. But let&#8217;s make sure:</p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=07/14/2015&amp;endDate=12/31/2015&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=baa&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p><img src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_profile.php?s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=CU|CS&amp;time=month&amp;player=446399&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=05/01/2016&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=baa&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" alt="" /></p>
<p>This is such an unbelievably small sample. In the second half of 2015, Cecil&#8217;s curveball was only put into play 48 times&#8230; and six landed for hits. In 2016, 21 have been put into play and seven have already landed for hits. Again, hitters seem especially educated on that low curveball (down-and-in to righties). They&#8217;re swinging at it less and, when they do swing at it, they&#8217;re not missing it.</p>
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>It really is such a small sample by which to proclaim an &#8216;easy fix.&#8217; Apart from being a victim of some bad luck, it looks like Cecil just isn&#8217;t getting as many swings at the low curveball. And there&#8217;s just no quick fix to that at all; unfortunately you can&#8217;t tell opposing hitters just to swing more.</p>
<p>Right now, just over 34 percent of Cecil&#8217;s curveballs are finishing in a zone other than the four bottom-left quadrants. In the second-half of last year, Cecil was throwing 42 percent of his pitches to other parts of the zone. Perhaps Cecil is just being too predictable now. Varying location on the curveball a little bit more could help throw off some hitters.</p>
<p>Roughly the same percentage of curveballs are ending up in the strikezone compared to the second-half of last season, but Cecil is choosing to miss in one specific zone almost exclusively. That could be hampering that location&#8217;s effectiveness if it&#8217;s just too predictable.</p>
<p>It doesn&#8217;t strike me as a common occurrence that a pitcher hitting his best zone leads to struggles, and that can be read one of two ways. The pessimist may argue that Cecil can no longer make that pitch work; that &#8216;the book&#8217; is out on him, so to speak. The optimist however, would argue that Cecil is just locating it too well. He knows his strongest zone and he is sticking to it. But maybe he&#8217;s just sticking to it too well. But if a pitcher has that level of control, it seems like a reasonable expectation that Cecil can get himself out of it by precisely locating elsewhere when he needs to.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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