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	<title>Toronto &#187; blue jays</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire SS Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Dec 2017 02:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aledmys Diaz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.B. Woodman]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[St.Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Moments after non-tendering Ryan Goins, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz. Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star. With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moments after <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/" title="Blue Jays acquire Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals" target="_blank">non-tendering Ryan Goins</a>, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz.</p>
<p>Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star.</p>
<p>With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance for the oft-injured middle infielders Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki, but with much better offensive upside than Ryan Goins. Diaz made the All Star team in 2016, hitting .300/.369/.510, but didn&#8217;t follow that up well, being sent down. Diaz finished the year slashing .259/.290/.392 for St. Louis. That line would still be an improvement for the backup infield spot, however. </p>
<p>Woodman played 96 games with the Lansing Lugnuts, hitting .240/.320/.378.</p>
<p>With Diaz, the Blue Jays probably see no further need to go out and pay more than they should for utility player Eduardo Nunez or any other infielder. After being sent down, Diaz was versatile, playing 55 innings at second base and 78 innings at third base for the Memphis Redbirds of the PCL. He also short, third, left, and second in the big leagues. While he is below-average defensively at shortstop, he is adequate at all the other spots and just good enough to handle SS on a temporary basis without killing you. </p>
<p>In the end, if Diaz is anything like he was in 2016, this is a steal for the Blue Jays and a truly viable starter. If not, it still looks pretty good as a backup and occasional fill-in. Diaz was pretty rough at the plate this year, but anybody looks good compared to Ryan Goins. If, as expected (and as his minor league track record suggests), Diaz&#8217; production is somewhere in between his 2016 and 2017 levels, he&#8217;s a great pickup and will be a very suitable third middle infielder behind Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.</p>
<p>Nice move.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Lead photo © Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Cubs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/18/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-cubs/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/18/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-cubs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Aug 2017 17:47:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cubs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13020</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Mike Passador, Matt Gwin, and Cole Nefsky Judicious Use of the Bullpen’s Southpaws The Blue Jays will be making their final trip to an NL ballpark this season (well, hopefully there’s one more), and it’ll put the team’s late-game maneuvers under a bit of a spotlight. In their previous seven trips to the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Mike Passador, Matt Gwin, and Cole Nefsky</em></p>
<h3>Judicious Use of the Bullpen’s Southpaws</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will be making their final trip to an NL ballpark this season (well, hopefully there’s one more), and it’ll put the team’s late-game maneuvers under a bit of a spotlight. In their previous seven trips to the senior circuit, only one pitcher has been called upon to face fewer than three batters, and that occurred when J.P. Howell served up a walk-off grand slam to Matt Carpenter on April 27th. Though the bench consists of five players, Kendrys Morales’ specific skillset will keep John Gibbons’ options limited when it comes to double switches and substitutions in the late innings. It means he’ll need to get as much as he can out of every player who appears, and perhaps no group will feel the heat as much as the team’s left handed relievers.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Cubs boast a lethal lineup that’s particularly tough on southpaws. As of Thursday, they sit sixth in MLB with 46 home runs of lefties while ranking first in OBP with a .355 mark. They’re also first in walk rate and sit sixth in ISO, while Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are both in the top 20 in terms of TAv against lefties amongst batters with 100 such plate appearances this season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With Matt Dermody not in the mix for high leverage work, it’ll be up to Tim Mayza and Aaron Loup to shoulder what’s likely to be a heavy load. The Cubs have six left handed hitters and three switch hitters on the roster, and it’s inevitable that Gibbons will turn to a lefty-lefty matchup or switch somebody around in the late innings.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the last series against the Rays, Loup faced only one batter on Wednesday (righty Steven Souza was called on as a pinch hitter for left-handed Lucas Duda) before being lifted with Evan Longoria on deck. He faced just two on Thursday, with one being unimposing right hander Adeiny Hechavarria. On Monday, Loup was called in to face two lefties and was allowed to face Longoria after working through Corey Dickerson and Duda without issue. Mayza dealt with two lefties and the mediocre Wilson Ramos in his short appearance on Thursday. Given the collective success of the Cubs’ roster against lefties, the matchups over the next three days should be far less comfortable.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Toronto has been getting great production from their bullpen stalwarts lately, but their two best left-handers might have to see some extremely daunting opponents during their three-game stay at Wrigley. Any exceedingly short appearances could spell trouble for an already-overtaxed relief corps and Gibbons probably doesn’t want to burn through his bullpen quickly unless it’s absolutely necessary. He’ll surely pick his spots so as to get the most out of Loup and Mayza, but both will have to face some batters who excel against lefties even if they can dodge the biggest boppers. It should be quite the test for both.</span></p>
<h3>Two Starters Living on the Margins</h3>
<p>In the modern game, there&#8217;s no doubting it: velocity is king. This is the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1931167" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus pitcher WARP leaderboard for 2017</a>.</p>
<ol>
<li>Chris Sale &#8211; 6.6 WARP</li>
<li>Max Scherzer &#8211; 6 WARP</li>
<li>Corey Kluber &#8211; 5.2 WARP</li>
<li>Zack Greinke &#8211; 5.2 WARP</li>
<li>Chris Archer &#8211; 5.0 WARP</li>
<li>Jacob DeGrom &#8211; 4.6 WARP</li>
<li>Clayton Kershaw &#8211; 4.5 WARP</li>
<li>Luis Severino &#8211; 4.1 WARP</li>
<li>Carlos Martinez &#8211; 4.0 WARP</li>
<li>Jeff Samardzija &#8211; 3.9 WARP</li>
</ol>
<p>On the velocity high end of that Top 10, you have Luis Severino, who has an average fastball velocity of 97 MPH and regularly tops out over 100 MPH. On the velocity low end of that Top 10, you have Zack Greinke, who has an average fastball velocity of 91 MPH, but regularly hits the mid 90s. Nearly all of baseball&#8217;s best pitchers have some level of elite velocity backing up their claims.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not the case for Blue Jays&#8217; starter Marco Estrada and Cubs&#8217; starter Kyle Hendricks, however. Previously in their careers, each starter had hit 94 MPH on the Pitch f/X radar gun, but these days their average fastball velocities hover below the 90 MPH mark. In turn, both have had to find new ways to pitch and take hold of alternative strategies for success. For Estrada that was finding elite spin, while for Hendricks it was creating a sinker that had pin point precision. Over the last two seasons, those strategies resulted in Cy Young Award votes for both of them. This year, however, there&#8217;s been a little more trouble.</p>
<p>After posting low 3.00s ERAs for two straight years, each starters&#8217; ERA was well over 4.00 through June of this year. By all accounts, both pitchers had done everything relatively then as compared to 2016. Jeff Sullivan wrote on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-hendricks-has-been-too-easy-to-hit/" target="_blank">Kyle Hendricks&#8217; early season issues</a> and found slight differences, but nothing reasonable enough to justify such a massive ERA increase. Meanwhile, <a href="https://sports.vice.com/en_ca/article/a3dzb5/the-puzzling-case-of-marco-estrada" target="_blank">plenty</a> have <a href="https://jaysjournal.com/2017/06/21/blue-jays-estradas-free-agent-value-rapidly-dropping/" target="_blank">tackled</a> Estrada&#8217;s 2017 <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/14/is-it-possible-jays-estrada-has-been-telegraphing-pitches" target="_blank">pitching issues</a>, each coming up with a different, yet slight variation, but no one having come up with a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/10/whats-wrong-with-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">major fix</a>.</p>
<p>In the time since June, Hendricks has righted his ship, doing many of the same things and getting vastly different results. Meanwhile, Estrada has done a lot of the same and got many similarly poor results. In other words, baseball is weird, but it&#8217;s also incredibly hard to succeed on the margins. Look for that as the pair face off in Sunday&#8217;s matinee.</p>
<h3>Juggling the Offense</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Jays have stormed back into playoff contention with good enough pitching, and good enough batting, and good enough defending. It’s hard enough to make the playoffs when your team is good at any one of those things, but this current iteration of the Blue Jays isn’t especially gifted in any of the three. Things are certainly not made easier by the almost 37 year old Jose Bautista lumbering around right field looking for a way he could help this team lose.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Jose Bautista is a below average hitter, a below average runner, and a below average defender. He has been worth a mighty 0.0 fWAR or 1.0 WARP, neither of which is a very good showing. Ezequiel Carrera on the other hand has turned himself into what seems like a decent hitter, while playing defense that at the very least is slightly better than Bautista’s, when you account for the hairiness of defensive metrics. He’s been worth 1.0 fWAR or 1.2 WARP, both of which are better than Bautista.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He also is one of only three Blue Jays with an OBP above .330 since the beginning of August. If this team is serious about winning, they’d start an outfield of Pearce-Pillar-Carrera. Don’t get me wrong, Zeke has been cooling down a bit lately, but it is sad to say that this season, even when he’s been cool, he has outperformed Jose. </span>Justin Smoak hasn’t had much of a month either overall, but he has enough power to still be a valuable offensive player and has earned a lot more trust this season that he can perform at a high level.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The rest of the team, other than two players on the DL in Travis and Martin, has been the sort of bad that might make you queasy. Since May 17, Kevin Pillar has had a triple slash of .209/.260/.330. Darwin Barney, Ryan Goins, and Rob Refsnyder have been various iterations of the same joke. Kendrys Morales has hit like a high quality backup catcher.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On the bright side, though, the team playing the series in the NL equalizes the playing field. Morales won’t be hitting and neither will the opposing team’s generic DH. The way that Gibby has been playing the matchup game, I don’t know if the added flexibility will help or hurt, however. The number of times Barney has hit against a righty and then Carrera has pinch run for him has been appalling and nonsensical. If he can make an adjustment, it will be possible for Toronto to get a better platoon advantage in this series and possibly squeeze out a couple of extra runs.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Ticket Sale Data can Tell us About Future Blue Jays Attendance</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/20/what-ticket-sale-data-tells-us-about-future-blue-jays-attendance/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/20/what-ticket-sale-data-tells-us-about-future-blue-jays-attendance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jun 2017 14:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Shell]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Attendance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payroll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an article last month arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument: “Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jonah-keri-case-trading-josh-donaldson-season/"> article last month</a> arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument:</p>
<p>“Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be tough to watch…Keeping Donaldson around for as long as possible could help prolong the franchise’s off-field momentum, the kind that’s supercharged attendance and TV ratings, and more intangibly made the Jays a hot topic of conversation on those glorious Toronto summer patio nights — like they were 25 years ago.”</p>
<p>Keri here is making a guess about something we don’t really know much about &#8211; namely, fan reactions to head office moves, and the implications for franchise revenue. It’s not that the financial side doesn’t matter – in fact, especially for a corporate club like the Jays, it’s crucial! It’s just that we tend to attach too much credibility to our gut instincts when we don&#8217;t have facts to lean on. I doubt Keri, or anyone else, wants to be like that scout in Moneyball talking about “the good face.” But when it comes to the economics of baseball, that’s who we often are.</p>
<p>The revolution in baseball analysis hasn&#8217;t extended to the financial side, despite its large influence on team decision-making. Even high-effort attempts to understand teams&#8217; current state and future prospects limit their financial analysis to current payroll levels, such as this otherwise <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/ground-rule-doppelgangers-2017-edition/">very cool concept </a>at the Hardball Times.<a id="ref1" href="#1"><sup>[1]</sup></a> But to a large extent, current payroll is a backward-looking metric, as it reflects decisions made in the past in potentially different circumstances. For example, the Detroit Tigers are an aging team with a high payroll and a collapsing attendance base. Current payroll may be an indicator of what they’re willing to spend in a good situation, but may not be a good indicator of their willingness or ability to add quality players over the next few years.</p>
<p>Since we currently often use hunch-based economics to support our arguments about what each team should do at the trade deadline, it might be useful to have some analytical tools or theories based on research. For example, what’s the actual “signalling” impact of trading someone like Josh Donaldson or Roberto Osuna? Does attendance reflect who the players are, and how long they’ve been with the team, or is it just about winning? How much does team revenue influence the player budget, and how does that differ based on the type of team owner?</p>
<p>While these questions would require some pretty painful historical research, we probably have enough available data today to create some useful metrics. The rise of Stubhub has produced accessible data about demand for tickets that scalpers never published. This data can be like the “peripherals” of revenue, using current market sentiment to predict a team’s season attendance, which is a good proxy for their revenue.<a id="ref2" href="#2"><sup>[2]</sup></a> This is exactly the same way xFIP tries to predict long-term ERA. Call it xREV, or xATT.</p>
<p>I think it would be pretty cool if Jonah Keri could say that the xREV for the Blue Jays is looking down about 10% for 2017, so we can’t expect the player budget to increase and need to think about things like trading Roberto Osuna. When <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/06/16/dont-trade-roberto-osuna-commit-to-making-him-a-starter/" target="_blank">Andrew Stoeten says</a> “unless something with their budget changes dramatically, the Blue Jays&#8230;aren’t quite going to be in that 2015-like push-in-all-your-chips, our-window-is-right-now kind of place,” this reasonable argument would be helped if xATT showed little reason to expect a dramatic change in their budget.</p>
<p>While we don&#8217;t have this metric, I&#8217;m going to make a lazy attempt at something similar.</p>
<p>First, let’s look at actual attendance so far this year compared to the last few years:</p>
<table width="385">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" width="385">Blue Jays Attendance through 36 Home Games</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Record</td>
<td>Total Attendance</td>
<td>Average Per Game</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>39-27</td>
<td> 914,601</td>
<td> 25,405</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>37-33</td>
<td> 949,648</td>
<td> 26,379</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>40-34</td>
<td> 1,369,090</td>
<td> 38,030</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>33-35</td>
<td> 1,400,638</td>
<td> 38,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Well, that doesn’t look too bad. On the face of it, the Blue Jays seem to be holding on to the gains they made last year, where they finished the year with 3.3 million fans. As Jonah points out, first in the AL!</p>
<p>But the underlying demand that would go into a predictive “xREV” paint a different picture. To look at it, I used seatgeek.com and my friend Dan. Seatgeek.com has a cool tool that shows you average ticket price on the secondary market for a team over time. My friend Dan lives in Calgary and actively sells every one of his season tickets on stubhub, which he has so he can get playoff tickets.<a id="ref3" href="#3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> He’s better than your friend Dan because he also keeps really good track of his sales stats.</p>
<p>Here’s the Jays picture on seatgeek.com since Feb, 2014:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11956" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png" alt="Since beginning of 2014" width="500" height="405" /></a></p>
<p>Average ticket prices last year dipped as low as $57, but this year they’ve barely ever been at that level, and are currently at $42, similar to prices in 2014 and early 2015 when attendance and interest was much lower. They did sell a lot more advance seats this year, so some of this would be expected as there’s a lot more supply in the market, but this should be a good indicator of a reduced interest in walk-up tickets.</p>
<p>Obviously, the team is doing worse, so that&#8217;s to be expected, but there have also been times this year where their record was very similar to last year, and it&#8217;s the same story.</p>
<p>For example, this year the Yankees came to town for a weekend series June 2-4, with the Blue Jays just under .500. The series drew 138K fans. Last year, the Red Sox came for a weekend series May 27-29 with the team just under .500, and drew 142K fans. That was almost exactly the same situation. According to Seatgeek, last year the average ticket price for the Red Sox series ranged from $45 to $58, while this year it was $39-41 for the Yanks. Dan’s results were even worse, averaging $61 a ticket this year versus $91 last year. <em>Even when the team performance was equally bad</em>, demand this year is a lot less than last year.</p>
<p>In fact, so far this year Dan’s getting crushed.<a id="ref4" href="#4"><sup>[4]</sup></a> Here’s his stats through 36 games:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" width="349">Dan&#8217;s Ticket Sales (through 36 games)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38"></td>
<td width="78">Total Sales</td>
<td width="61">Average</td>
<td width="116">Sales above $90</td>
<td width="56">No Sale</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2016</td>
<td width="78">$2,242</td>
<td width="61">$62.29</td>
<td width="116">12</td>
<td width="56">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2017</td>
<td width="78">$1,228</td>
<td width="61">$34.11</td>
<td width="116">1</td>
<td width="56">10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>And if you think he’s being lazy, he’s actually working harder this year. “Last year I held back the tickets because we knew there’d be real demand for the big games. This year, I have to post them way in advance, actively manage the change in prices and keep adjusting. I’m not going to do it again next year.” So, the Jays are already down two seats in 2018!</p>
<p>The change showed up very early, as last year’s home opener average on seatgeek was $61, while this year’s, after the miserable 1-5 start, was $39. Dan’s story was worse again, selling last year’s tickets for $260, and this year’s for $67.<a id="ref5" href="#5"><sup>[5]</sup></a></p>
<p>If demand continues to be this soft for new ticket sales, you’d expect to see a much lower average attendance for the rest of this year than the 47K per game they had from this point forward in 2016. Even keeping our league-leading current average attendance of 39K per game leads to a loss of 350K fans for the year. And there’s some evidence (the Yankees/Red Sox series comparison) that even if the team rallies back to take a wild card, interest would be lower than it was for the same result last year. If I had to take a stab at xATT, it would be 2.9-3.1M.</p>
<p>In Keri’s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/osunas-dominance-present-blue-jays-tempting-options/" target="_blank">perfectly reasonable article about trading Roberto Osuna</a>,<a id="ref6" href="#6"><sup>[6]</sup></a> he says this about the Jays fanbase: “Balanced against all that is a fanbase that’s been energized by the team’s recent success, with two straight ALCS appearances producing the best home attendance for any American League team this year, as well as surging TV ratings and a more intangible buzz around the ballclub, the kind that hadn’t been felt since the back-to-black glory years of 1992 and 1993.”</p>
<p>We’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but it’s possible that momentum has already swung the other way, and that underlying attendance “peripherals” may point to a lot less money to work with going forward. Before we trade Donaldson and “tear it all down,” this is pretty lazy analysis, and could easily be useless. But there’s a big gap in the baseball analytics world, and developing some useful tools on these topics would make predicting a team’s moves a lot more interesting and better informed.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>FOOTNOTES</strong></span></p>
<p><a id="1" href="#ref1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>The analysis attempts to find a historical match for each current team based on a number of dimensions.  The Jays are, as it happens, compared to the 1990 San Francisco Giants, who won 85, 75 and 72 games from 1990-1992.  Let’s hope not!</p>
<p><a id="2" href="#ref2"><sup>[2]</sup></a>Attendance is a team’s primary revenue source, and you’d expect it to drive merchandise sales, which are two of the three main drivers of revenue. TV is the other, and for most other teams, this is a long-term contract unaffected by attendance. Because the Blue Jays don’t have a TV contract for a specific set amount of money, TV revenue for the Blue Jays/Rogers is directly tied to advertising revenue, which is directly tied to ratings and therefore fan interest. So, attendance is a better proxy for revenue for the Jays than other teams.</p>
<p><a id="3" href="#ref3"><sup>[3]</sup></a>This worked out really well for Dan last year, as he made enough of a profit on the regular season seats to more or less pay for his trip to Toronto to see the playoffs. This year, not so much.</p>
<p><a id="4" href="#ref4"><sup>[4]</sup></a>Before you scream “small sample size,” Stubhub works largely like a stock market for tickets, where there are many buyer and sellers, so an active seller’s result will be indicative of the actual market rate.</p>
<p><a id="5" href="#ref5"><sup>[5]</sup></a>To be fair, last year was a Friday against the Red Sox and this year was a Tuesday against the Brewers, but these are some pretty dramatic differences.</p>
<p><a id="6" href="#ref6"><sup>[6]</sup></a>Not to get too deeply into this, but Osuna’s going to cost somewhere between $25-30M in his last three years of arbitration eligibility if he stays healthy. Kenley Jansen signed for $16M/year, or about $50M over the same time period. The recent hauls for players like Ken Giles and Tyler Thornburg were worth more than the difference, and Osuna’s better than those guys (not to mention the Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel deals). I’m not saying “do it,” but it’s certainly not crazy. And my love for Osuna runs deep…</p>
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		<title>Which Blue Jays are Putting the Barrel on the Ball?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2017 10:51:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-Roster Invitees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11056</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in February I wrote an article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard here. Just [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in February I wrote an <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/barrels-of-fun…the-sweet-spot/">article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric</a> and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank">here.</a> Just the other day, Tom Tango tweeted out some visualizations of the different definitions of contact.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are the six categories of the Radial Launch Profile.<a href="https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu">https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu</a> <br />Top line is Teddies, bottom line is ?!?Alfredos <a href="https://t.co/sja9MQhhXJ">pic.twitter.com/sja9MQhhXJ</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tangotiger (@tangotiger) <a href="https://twitter.com/tangotiger/status/866271088413749251">May 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>These are some nice tight visual groupings. And some R scores very close to 1. This means that from 2015-2016, the same batters generally had similar batted ball profiles. That&#8217;s a good indication that it isn&#8217;t a statistic that is a product of luck (like hitting with RISP vs. bases empty). Players who know how to barrel the ball one year tend not to forget how to do it the next. But can you change your batted ball profile if you know what you want to do differently? Let&#8217;s explore.</p>
<p>When we look at the 2016, we can see some winners and losers based on Barrels per Batter Ball Event (Brls_DIV_BBE).</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11060" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png" alt="barrels jays 2016" width="737" height="462" /></a></p>
<p>Who might be interesting to look at? Well, I highlighted them for us. Especially since we want to see what&#8217;s happened to their numbers this season. This is the 2017 chart.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11059" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png" alt="barrels jays 2017" width="773" height="464" /></a></p>
<p>Ah, yes. I&#8217;ve left Ceciliani and Stroman on the chart. That&#8217;s really to demonstrate how intuitive &#8220;Barrels&#8221; are. Both of them have a home run and a double in very limited PA and, as a result, have unsustainable numbers in the barrels categories. Instead, let&#8217;s look at a few of the players that are more worth highlighting.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak&#8217;s Made Real Changes</h4>
<p>Smoak&#8217;s always been at the top of the ranking when considering batted ball events, but fell off significantly in Brls/PA in 2016 because he struck out 32.6% of the time. He simply did not make enough contact to do damage in a high percentage of his plate appearances. The 2017 version of Justin Smoak is more disciplined, and, back in the spring, he mentioned making a conscious decision to <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/03/12/blue-jays-justin-smoak-to-ditch-all-or-nothing-approach">not try to hit a home run every time</a> he got to the plate.</p>
<p>As a result, he&#8217;s jumped from barreling the ball in 6.5% of his plate appearances to 10.5%, which tops everyone on the Jays who plays regularly. This follows along with his strikeout rate, which dropped from 32% to 19%. Another way to measure this change in approach is with contact rate in the zone. According to FanGraphs, his zone contact rate jumped from 82% last year to 94% this year. Not swinging like everything needs to clear the fence has paid huge dividends for Smoak.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista Might be Worth Worrying About</h4>
<p>Bautista was once one of the great power hitting threats in all of baseball. We know that these kinds of hitter have a barrel per batted event percentage of between 18 and 25 percent, and a barrel per plate appearance percentage of between 9 and 11 percent. When Bautista makes contact, he does so with authority, showing up with a high rank in average flyball distance. He also has one of the better peak and average exit velocities on the team. What it doesn&#8217;t quite translate into, however, is barrels. Alex Avila, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano can barrel the ball over 20% of the time. Jose can only make it happen 9% of the time, which is Jean Segura and Kyle Seager territory. At this point in his career, Jose is still able to get on base, but not do the kind of damage he once did. You could certainly keep him up in the lineup, but it&#8217;s possible that the cleanup spot isn&#8217;t where he&#8217;s meant to be anymore.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Kevin Pillar&#8217;s Making Good on His Promise</h4>
<p>Much has been made of Pillar&#8217;s very public declaration to change his approach at the plate. In 2016, he barreled up the ball about as often as Ryan Goins, which is to say, not often at all. In 2017, he&#8217;s taken a great leap forward, going from barreling the ball in 2.7% of his batted balls to 6.7%, and from barreling the ball in 1.9% of plate appearances to 5.3%. Kevin Pillar now hits the ball with authority, even slightly more often than Bautista does over all his plate appearances. This is very strong evidence that he has been able to make a meaningful change in his approach. Remember, Barrels are about process, not results. In Pillar&#8217;s case the results have certainly followed. His tAV has jumped from .232 to .302 with the new approach, his walks are up significantly, and his strikeouts are down. Pillar wanted to confine his swings to pitches that were really hittable, and every measure we have has shown him to be successful in that regard.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Steve Pearce and Devon Travis&#8217; Numbers Are Diverging</h4>
<p>I grouped Steve Pearce and Devon Travis together for a reason. In 2016, in a platoon role, Pearce was the far superior power hitter, and Travis looked like a middle infielder with little to no pop in his bat. In 2017, Travis got of to a rough start, but he&#8217;s been tearing the cover off the ball recently. Meanwhile, Pearce got incosistent playing time and then got hurt. Their Statcast profiles, however, come out incredibly similar in 2017. They max velocity, average distance, barrels per batted event, and barrels per plate appearance are all within a digit or two of one another. It&#8217;s no surprise Pearce&#8217;s tAV sits at .215 and Travis&#8217; sits at .224. Again, the process predicts the results—both players have been worth -0.2 WARP. We should watch and see if their fortunes diverge once Pearce returns from injury.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The Blue Jays Aren&#8217;t Barrelling</h4>
<p>Looking at the chart as a whole, one other thing becomes clear. The Blue Jays are not, as a group, barrelling up the ball nearly as much as they did in 2016. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 8.8% and 4.8% were buried in the middle of the list last year, but now his 9.0% and 5.2% are, essentially, fourth on the team. The lineup simply isn&#8217;t made up of guys who hit a lot of homers or doubles into the gap. That isn&#8217;t the only way to score runs, of course, since the 2017 team has scored 186 runs after 45 games, and the 2016 team has scored only 183. Maybe some of John Gibbons&#8217; bunt and squeeze tactics are a result of him not seeing anyone who can hit the ball with authority and reacting accordingly.</p>
<p>Either way, there are things that we can learn from barrelled balls. First off, we can see that, over and over again, the nature of the contact with the ball is consistent with the quality of the result. There is no way to defend against a barrelled ball, and if you&#8217;re aware of a way to nudge the launch angle and exit velocity into a certain zone as a hitter, you should absolutely do that. The other lesson, from Smoak and Pillar, is that a change in approach can help a hitter with a hole in his game. Smoak didn&#8217;t need to make harder or better contact, he needed to make it more often. Pillar didn&#8217;t need to make more contact overall, he needed to make it in the strike zone. Teams can use this type of data (obviously with more sophistication) to target players where small changes might offer big payoffs. The small sliver of Statcast data that the public has access to offers an opportunity to change what skills are valued in the game, imagine what teams will be doing with the whole database at their fingertips.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:</em> <em>Nick Turchiaro</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Why are Blue Jays Fans Masochists?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/28/why-are-blue-jays-fans-masochists/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/28/why-are-blue-jays-fans-masochists/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Apr 2017 10:49:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rachael McDaniel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Masochism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10340</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is a fact: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays have been very, very bad. Here is another fact: I am a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays &#8211; including their very, very bad 2017 iteration. Why? I’ve been thinking a lot lately, watching the Jays dig themselves deeper and deeper into the grave of early-season [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Here is a fact: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays have been very, very bad. </span></p>
<p>Here is another fact: I am a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays &#8211; including their very, very bad 2017 iteration.</p>
<p>Why?</p>
<p>I’ve been thinking a lot lately, watching the Jays dig themselves deeper and deeper into the grave of early-season losses, about this strange behavior we call fandom. It’s irrational enough that we’re so invested in a game where a bunch of guys dress up in weird pajamas and throw a ball really fast. It borders on the absurd that we would continue to care about our pajama men when they don’t provide the satisfaction of victory.</p>
<p>I don’t enjoy watching the Jays lose. It doesn’t make me feel good. For some reason, though, I still care &#8211; and it’s not just me. It’s me and the thousands of people who continue showing up at the dome to watch the Jays lose. It’s me and the millions of people who listen on the radio, watch on TV, or have Gameday open on their phone at work. It’s the millions of people every year who identify themselves as fans of the losing 29 MLB teams, or of the losing 29 NHL teams, or of any number of losing teams in sports.</p>
<p>We all know our team is going to suck sometimes; it’s a literal inevitability of being a sports fan. We all also know that when the team sucks, it makes us feel bad. So why do we all choose to hurt ourselves like this? Why do we not, as the reasonable, free-will-having people that we are, just jump ship and stop caring about the team when the team stops giving us the emotional validation of victory? I set out to find answers.</p>
<h3>Casuals vs. Die-Hards</h3>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Before getting into why fans stay loyal to losing teams, we must first define the specific kind of fans we’re interested in here. Sports, after all, are almost omnipresent in most cultures, consumed in many different ways by many different people. In sports psychology, there are two basic distinctions made between types of people who engage with sports. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">First, there is the distinction between a</span><b> sports fan</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> and a </span><b>sports spectator</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. A sports spectator is anyone who watches or listens to a game, whether live or through media &#8211; TV, radio, people’s Twitter reactions. A sports fan, however, takes an active interest in the sport, a team, or an athlete.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn1"><sup>[1]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> Though the terms “spectator” and “fan” are often used synonymously, and though they do have a significant amount of overlap, it’s important to distinguish between the two. A </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">spectator</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> at a Jays game, for example, might not have any interest in baseball at all, but just went to get drunk with their friends, whereas a Jays </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">fan</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> living in Korea might only very occasionally get to witness games due to distance and time difference. The research I will be citing deals with sports fans specifically.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">The second distinction is between </span><b>low identification fans </b><span style="font-weight: 400">and </span><b>high identification fans.</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> For the low-identified fan, the team is superficial to their idea of themselves.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn2"><sup>[2]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> A fan who displays low team identification will show little emotional investment in the outcomes of games. You probably won’t see them shelling out hundreds of dollars for jerseys and hats, and they won’t feel much dejection or elation if the team loses or wins. For a fan with high team identification, however, the team is an </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">extension</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> of themselves, and of what they perceive to be their own personal qualities.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn3"><sup>[3]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> The team takes on a much bigger role in their lives. These are the people who willingly stay up until four in the morning watching the Jays play thirteen excruciating innings against the Angels &#8211; people who one might describe as “loving the team.”</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">How does one determine a fan’s level of identification? The Sports Spectator Identification Scale (SSIS), developed by Daniel L. Wann and Nyla R. Branscombe, is the standard method of measuring fan identification levels for psychological research purposes. For the sake of illustration, I took the SSIS myself. Here are my results:</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/20170423_141828.jpg"><img class=" size-medium wp-image-10382 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/20170423_141828-271x300.jpg" alt="20170423_141828" width="271" height="300" /></a></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">A</span></strong><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">n SSIS score of 18 or lower indicates low team identification. Scores of 18-35 qualify as moderate team identification, and scores of greater than 35 indicate high team identification. At a crisp 45, my score puts me firmly in the category of a high-identification Blue Jays fan. Take the test yourself, and determine your own score &#8211; I would imagine that if you’ve read this far, and if you’ve stuck with the Jays through their losing ways of late, you are most likely a fan with high team identification.</span></strong></p>
<h3>How Losing Affects Devoted Fans</h3>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">What does high team identification mean, then, when it comes to the team losing? Research indicates that high-identification fans experience significant physical anxiety and a heightened emotional state while watching the team play, regardless of whether or not the team is winning.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn4"><sup>[4]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> So when the team does lose, high-identification fans take the loss much harder than low- or moderate-identification fans.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Not only do high-identification fans report much stronger negative reactions to their team losing, but their depression about the losses extends to their view of life in general.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn5"><sup>[5]</sup></a> And if you take a look around the internet, it isn’t difficult to see this generalized depression manifesting after misfortune strikes a sports team. Take this April 13 <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/04/13/blue-jays-lose-donaldson-injured-everything-awful/">Blue Jays Nation</a> headline, after the Jays lost both the game and Josh Donaldson: </span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/Screenshot-2017-04-22-at-18.07.18.png"><img class="  wp-image-10375 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/Screenshot-2017-04-22-at-18.07.18-300x36.png" alt="Screenshot 2017-04-22 at 18.07.18" width="466" height="56" /></a></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Or this April 21 headline from San Francisco Giants blog </span><a href="http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2017/4/21/15392094/giants-no-what-are-you-doing-stop"><span style="font-weight: 400">McCovey Chronicles</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, after Madison Bumgarner broke himself dirt biking, and also the Giants lost: </span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/Screenshot-2017-04-22-at-18.11.37.png"><img class="  wp-image-10378 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/Screenshot-2017-04-22-at-18.11.37-300x52.png" alt="Screenshot 2017-04-22 at 18.11.37" width="439" height="76" /></a></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">These are intentionally hyperbolic reactions, but they resonate with the sentiments of high-identification fans when their team of choice fails. The team is bad &#8211; ergo, life is bad, death is approaching, human activity is destroying the earth, and everything and everyone you ever love will inevitably disappoint you.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Yet despite the fact that losses are so distressing to high-identification fans, they are exactly the fans who will stick around to witness continued team losses no matter what.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn6"><sup>[6]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400">When faced with team failure, fans who identify less strongly with the team employ a self-esteem regulation strategy known as </span><b>cutting off reflected failure</b><span style="font-weight: 400">, or CORFing. In CORFing, the fan disassociates themselves from the team if the team performs poorly, thereby protecting themselves from any significant emotional reaction or impact on their self-esteem.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn7"><sup>[7]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> But research indicates that fans who rate highly in team identification don’t &#8211; or rather, </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">can’t</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; use CORFing to cope. Their identity is too closely intertwined with the team to create or maintain any real emotional distance between the team and themselves.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn8"><sup>[8]</sup></a></span> </strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Taking only these negative emotional outcomes into account, having a high level of identification with a team seems at best destabilizing, and at worst dangerous. The answer to “Why do we do this to ourselves?” seems to be: because we can’t extricate our own identities as people from our identification with the team. Because we’re in too deep now, and we can’t get out. Because suffering is all we’ve ever known, and will be all we’ll ever know, until we die or the Blue Jays stop existing. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Thankfully, though, this isn’t the whole story.</span></strong></p>
<h3>Wait, Sports Are… Good?</h3>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Given the information I’ve just presented, you would be justified in assuming that high team identification is, on the whole, bad for a person’s mental health. There’s the stress that comes with watching the team, even if they’re winning. There’s the time and money you invest, and there’s the negative emotional reaction inevitably created by team failure. You would think that someone with a low team identification would be emotionally healthier. They can enjoy the good times, while not being affected by the bad, and they are stable enough in their sense of identity not to go and get so attached to a sports team. Perhaps bandwagoners, that oft-derided class of fan, are really much better off &#8211; and much less neurotic &#8211; than the rest of us.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">You would think that, sure. But it’s not true. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">In 1991, Branscombe and Wann undertook studies of 880 college students in an attempt to determine a correlational relationship, if any, between level of team identification and emotional health. In the first study, students were asked to complete a self-esteem scale and a social desirability measure, to rate their frequency of experiencing depression, and finally to complete the SSIS, rating their level of identification with their college’s basketball team. The results indicated a positive correlation between high levels of team identification and high levels of self-esteem and social desirability, with a negative correlation between high fan identification and depression. In the second study, high levels of identification with the college basketball team correlated negatively with feelings of alienation. In the third study, students were instead asked to rank their identification with a favorite MLB team, and to assess their frequency of depression; once again, depression was experienced less frequently by those with higher team identification.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn9"><sup>[9]</sup></a></span> </strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Though these studies were correlational, and didn’t reach the conclusion that devotion to a sports team necessarily </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">causes</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> fans with higher levels of identification to be better off emotionally, they certainly suggest that high-identification sports fans are no </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">less</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> emotionally healthy than fans with lower levels of identification. The results of these studies were corroborated by further research of college students in 1999, which indicated once again that fans who highly identified with their college team showed a healthier, happier emotional profile.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn10"><sup>[10]</sup></a></span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">How can this information coexist with the information we already had &#8211; namely, that the team losing </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">absolutely sucks, </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">emotionally speaking,</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> for devoted fans? This paradox suggests that we must be getting benefits from our high level of fandom which outweigh the stress of investment and unpleasantness of losing.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Branscombe and Wann hypothesize that it’s the social aspect of sports fandom which produces these positive outcomes.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn11"><sup>[11]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> In an era wherein other social structures such as religion and the nuclear family have lost much of their societal clout, perhaps sports fandom replaces the role of such communities in the lives of fans, creating positive social connections and serving as a buffer for real, non-sports-related depression and loneliness. A team’s lack of success won’t sever these valuable social connections &#8211; they might actually make them stronger. Misery loves company, after all, and recent research on UK football fans found that dysphoric events like pivotal losses had the marked effect of strengthening fans’ identification with the team and the community.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn12"><sup>[12]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> The stinging unhappiness of losing is no match for the soothing balm of friendship, and no matter how woeful the team makes you feel, there’s a huge group of sympathetic people who share your woes &#8211; people who, like you, </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">chose </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">to continue to be fans, even in the face of futility.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">There’s no more obvious manifestation of this phenomenon than the devoted fanbase of the Chicago Cubs. The collective identity of Cubs fans has been bonded together by over a century of failure, to the extent there was reason to <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17971765/cubs-win-cubs-won-now-do-stay-alive-for">question the purpose of living on </a>when they finally did win. Even now, though, when the Cubs are World Series champions, with a young and absurdly talented core group of players and as good a chance of success as any team in baseball, the lingering feeling that failure and disappointment are Cubs’ fans’ peculiar lot in life persists. After the Cubs failed to preserve a dramatically-achieved tie in the 9th inning of their 2017 season opener against the Cardinals and lost the game, Zack Moser at BP Wrigleyville <a href="http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/05/the-contreras-home-run-and-cubs-fandom/">wrote this </a>about what is unique about Cubs fandom: “What does differentiate the Cubs fan is nebulous, almost imperceptible if one doesn’t live with it already. It’s the collective memory of years of failure—the enduring melancholy of not even really coming close to achieving the ultimate goal, and yet rarely dipping into despondency.” Failure and loss is an entrenched, essential part of the identity of the Cubs fan.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s not just Cubs fans, of course. All teams have extended periods of time during which they are unsuccessful, whether it be a month, a season, or several decades. The sharing of this extended melancholy, this persistence in loyalty to a team with little precedent of success, binds the social group of fandom together. And this is likely why failure is mythologized to the extent that it is in baseball narratives. Mighty Casey struck out; Roy Hobbs&#8217; career ended in ignominy (don&#8217;t believe what the movie told you). Roger Kahn writes in <em>The Boys of Summer </em>that &#8220;you may glory in a team triumphant, but you fall in love with a team in defeat,&#8221; and the research indicates that this is true.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">With the shared despondence, too, comes a heightened collective delight when the team is successful &#8211; a shared hope that any isolated success is a sign of great things to come. A team win has a similarly strong bonding effect to a team loss,<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn13"><sup>[13]</sup></a> and high-identification fans tend to mentally privilege recent positive outcomes over long-term negative ones.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn15"><sup>[14]</sup></a> (For example: I think I’ve seen someone say “This is the turning point in the season!” after every single Jays win this year.) All of these factors compound to create a uniquely persistent, stable, and internally loyal social group.</span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">In their research on the correlation between high team identification and emotional health, Branscombe and Wann note that the correlation they found was stronger in fans of a geographically nearby team than in “displaced” fans, which they attribute to the lack of a robust fan community for a displaced fan to participate in.<a title="Jump to footnotes at the end of page" href="#fn15"><sup>[15]</sup></a></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> But Branscombe and Wann did this research during the 90s, prior to the proliferation of social media. Fans no longer even have to get out of bed to actively participate in the fan community. Though I have found no research pertaining to this topic specifically and thus have no science to back this up, I would imagine that geographic displacement from the team would have less of an impact on the positive outcomes of fandom now, in 2017, than it did in 1999. Whether you’re a fan of a Toronto team living elsewhere in Canada &#8211; like I am, in Vancouver &#8211; or on a different continent altogether, you can still be a participant in a vibrant fan community as long as you have an internet connection, even if you’re the only person in your local bar wearing a Blue Jays jersey. Speaking from personal experience, the Blue Jays fan community on the internet absolutely transformed the way I interacted with baseball. I would likely not identify so strongly as a Jays fan if it weren’t for the online fan community.</span></strong></p>
<h3>Summary: Why We love to Suffer</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Here’s a quick recap of what we’ve learned today: </span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400"><span style="font-weight: 400">Psychology differentiates between </span><b>sports spectators</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; anyone who witnesses a game in some form &#8211; and </span><b>sports fans</b><span style="font-weight: 400">, who take an active interest in the sport/a team/an athlete.</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400"><span style="font-weight: 400">We can measure sports fans’ levels of </span><b>team identification</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. Fans with </span><b>low team identification </b><span style="font-weight: 400">are what we would call casuals, who aren’t particularly invested in team performance. For fans with </span><b>high team identification</b><span style="font-weight: 400">, though, the team is an essential part of their identity. </span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400"><span style="font-weight: 400">Team losses have </span><b>very strong negative emotional impacts</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> on fans with high team identification, to the extent that losses </span><b>influence their view on life in general</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. But while less strongly identified fans will protect themselves by </span><b>cutting off reflected failure </b><span style="font-weight: 400">and disassociating themselves from the team, high-identification fans remain </span><b>committed</b><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400"><span style="font-weight: 400">Despite this, high team identification </span><b>correlates strongly with positive emotional outcomes</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. Compared to the outcomes for fans with low team identification, research has positively correlated high team identification with </span><b>higher</b> <b>self-esteem and social desirability</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. High team identification has also been negatively correlated with feelings of depression, alienation and isolation. </span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400"><span style="font-weight: 400">This is likely because of the </span><b>social benefits of high team identification</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. The positive experience of having a supportive community of like-minded fans contributes to these positive emotional outcomes and negates any strife caused by team losses. Team losses themselves actually serve to </span><b>strengthen the bonds of the fan community</b><span style="font-weight: 400">. </span></li>
</ul>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">The answer, then, to “Why are Blue Jays fans masochists?” is &#8211; we’re not, actually. It may feel like we hate ourselves, hate the Blue Jays, and hate baseball when the team is performing poorly, but when the ledger of psychological health is balanced, loyal, thick-and-thin fans come out looking none the worse. For the majority of fans with high team identification, the positive experience of fan community outweighs the disappointment of the team doing badly. Add this to how entrenched the team becomes in one&#8217;s self-concept, and the fact that team losses actually strengthen one&#8217;s identification with the team, and it is essentially guaranteed that fans will stay loyal through the good times and the bad &#8211; no matter how terrible the bad times make them feel. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">But then, you&#8217;re a fan of a team that hasn&#8217;t won the World Series for almost 24 years, one that didn&#8217;t even make the playoffs for 21 of those. You&#8217;re a fan of a team that started the season 2-11. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">You probably don&#8217;t need any reminder that you&#8217;re here forever.</span></strong></p>
<p><span id="more-10340"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium"><a id="fn1"></a>1. Daniel L. Wann et al., <i>Sport Fans: The Psychology and Social Impact of Spectators</i> (New York: Routledge, 2001), 2.<br />
<a id="fn2"></a>2. Wann et al., 4.<br />
<a id="fn3"></a>3. Eliot R. Smith and Susan Henry, “An in-group becomes part of the self: Response time evidence.” <i>Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin</i> 22 (1996), 635-642.<br />
<a id="fn4"></a>4. Nyla R. Branscombe and Daniel L. Wann, “Physiological arousal and reactions to outgroup members that implicate an important social identity,” <i>Aggressive Behavior</i> 18 (1992), 85-93.<br />
<a id="fn5"></a>5. S.T. Eastman and K.E. Riggs, “Televised sports and ritual: Fan experiences.” <i>Sociology of Sport Journal</i> 11 (1994), 149-174.<br />
<a id="fn6"></a>6. Wann et al., 171.<br />
<a id="fn7"></a>7. Daniel L. Wann, <i>Sport Psychology</i> (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1997), 363.<br />
<a id="fn8"></a>8. Wann, 364.<br />
<a id="fn9"></a>9. Nyla R. Branscombe and Daniel L. Wann, “The positive social and self-concept consequences of sport team identification.” <i>Journal of Sport and Social Issues</i> 15 (1991), 115-127.<br />
<a id="fn10"></a>10. Daniel L. Wann et al., “Assessing the psychological well-being of sport fans using the Profile of Mood States: the importance of team identification.” <i>International Sports Journal</i> 3 (1999), 81-90.<br />
<a id="fn11"></a>11. Wann et al., 164.<br />
<a id="fn12"></a>12. Martha Newston, Michael Burmester, and Harvey Whitehouse, “Explaining Lifelong Loyalty: The Role of Identity Fusion and Self-Shaping Events.” <i>PLoS ONE 11</i> (2016), https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160427<br />
<a id="fn13"></a>13. Newston et al.<br />
<a id="fn14"></a>14. E.R Hirt et al., “Costs and benefits of allegiance: Changes in fans’ self-ascribed competencies after team victory versus defeat.” <i>Journal of Personality and Social Psychology</i> 63 (1992),724-738.<br />
<a id="fn15"></a>15. Branscombe and Wann, 124.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro, USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Mark Your Calendar: Important Games on the 2017 Blue Jays Schedule</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/07/mark-your-calendar-important-games-on-the-2017-blue-jays-schedule/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Apr 2017 10:00:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10107</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The baseball season is officially underway. That means that for the next six (and hopefully seven) months, we will have the Blue Jays to keep us company. As ticket prices are rising and TV packages becoming more expensive, we’re all spending more money on baseball than ever before (obligatory “thanks, Rogers!”). With 162 games on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The baseball season is officially underway. That means that for the next six (and hopefully seven) months, we will have the Blue Jays to keep us company. As ticket prices are rising and TV packages becoming more expensive, we’re all spending more money on baseball than ever before (obligatory “thanks, Rogers!”). With 162 games on the docket, you can’t watch them all. In an effort to optimize your viewing experience, I’ve compiled a list of important games and dates during the 2017 Blue Jays season. Use it to decide when you should head down to the stadium or turn on your TV to see Canada’s team (a sentiment that is especially true now that NHL players aren’t allowed to play in the Olympics).</p>
<h4>May 8-10 vs. Cleveland – 2016 ALCS Rematch</h4>
<p>There will be no shortage of storylines when the Jays face their 2016 ALCS opponents. Who had a worse experience in free agency – former Blue Jay Edwin Encarnacion, or current Blue Jay Jose Bautista? How does <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2016/01/cleveland_indians_trevor_bauer_11.html">conservative pundit/hip-hop artist/Cleveland pitcher</a> Trevor Bauer feel about liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau? Will Terry Francona’s $44-dollar-a-day ice cream habit ruin Cleveland’s chances of getting back to the World Series?</p>
<p>With Ryan Meritt and Mike Clevinger in the minor leagues, and Dan Otero and Zach McAllister buried in middle relief, the Jays won’t have to contend with the dominant Cleveland pitching that shut them down in the ALCS. Instead facing off against Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber and Danny Salazar.</p>
<h4>May 29-31 vs. Cincinnati Reds – Joey Votto Returns Home</h4>
<p>Canada’s favorite (and <a href="http://redsminorleagues.com/2017/01/03/marty-brennaman-joey-votto/" target="_blank">Marty Brennaman’s least favorite</a>) baseball son returns home when Votto and his Cincinnati Reds take on the Jays at the end of May. Anyone who hasn’t had the chance to watch Votto play should make this series a priority. Depending on how the next few seasons play out, Votto may go down as the greatest Canadian baseball player ever. Now 33, Votto has also begun to think about his legacy within the game and begun to promote his Canadian-inspired brand of <a href="https://twitter.com/kiasuchick/status/758415854228738049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&amp;ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fftw.usatoday.com%2F2016%2F07%2Fjoey-votto-red-giants-fan-batting-gloves">democratic socialism</a>&nbsp;around the National League.</p>
<p>While there have been occasional rumors that Votto may be traded to his hometown Blue Jays, Canadian baseball fans will likely have to settle for watching him play first base for the Reds in the Rogers Centre. And maybe pitch in relief – the Reds pitching is not good.</p>
<h4>June 1 at New York Yankees – Leafs and Raptors Eliminated</h4>
<p>With the Raptors and Leafs set to make the playoffs, the Jays are going to be competing for dollars and eyeballs during the first part of the baseball season. If you’re looking to catch a Jays game in person, this might keep the now dynamic ticket prices reasonable throughout April and May. Just beware that by early June the Jays will be the only game in town and you will once again be forced to share the Rogers Centre grandstands with disappointed Auston Matthews fans (at least until mid September).</p>
<h4>June 5 at Oakland A’s –Marco Estrada’s Back Must Survive a Cross-Continent Flight</h4>
<p>Marco Estrada has been dominant for the Blue Jays since stepping into the rotation part way through 2015. The only thing holding back the Blue Jays FIP-busting ace is his <em>actual</em> back – Estrada struggled with back injuries throughout the 2016 season.</p>
<p>After finishing a three-game series in New York on Sunday afternoon, the club will then fly to the west coast to play the A’s and Mariners. Be on the lookout for how Estrada and his back respond to sitting through the five-hour airplane ride that comes when the Jays have to play AL West teams on their turf. Hopefully the newly revamped High Performance department has a solution. Or they shell out and get Estrada one of those first-class pods so he can lie down during the flight.</p>
<h4>June 9 at Seattle Mariners – John Gibbons’ Birthday</h4>
<p>Jays skipper John Gibbons celebrates his 55th birthday on June 8<sup>th</sup> while the team is in the middle of their west coast road trip. Keep an eye on the Blue Jays manager the next night in Seattle. If Gibby gets tossed early on, it might be to sleep off his &#8220;flu-like symptoms&#8221; instead of being upset over the ump’s strike zone.</p>
<h4>June 27-29 vs. Baltimore Orioles – Offensive Statistics Stabilize</h4>
<p>It can be dangerous to read too much into early season results. If Josh Donaldson is hitting .100 or Aaron Sanchez has a 5.50 ERA after three weeks don’t sweat it. Things take time to stabilize. According to Fangraphs, that amount of time is about 320 at-bats for slugging percentage, 120 for walk rate and 60 for strikeout rate. By the time Baltimore comes to town at the end of June, we should know if Kevin Pillar is <a title="How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">a more patient hitter</a> or Justin Smoak really is capable of producing more than his career to date indicates. Promote Rowdy Tellez accordingly.</p>
<h4>July 1 vs. Boston Red Sox – Canada Day</h4>
<p>If you want to get day drunk without the guilt of missing work, the Canada Day classic is for you. If you’re lucky, you might get to see the Jays knock David Price and his semi-attached elbow around the Rogers Centre.</p>
<h4>August 1 at Chicago White Sox – Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Passes</h4>
<p>Our first chance to see the shiny new players that Ross Atkins and company acquire for the pennant race. Last year, the front office set an unreasonably high bar when they were able to acquire Francisco Liriano and prospects at the same time by trading Drew Hutchison to Pittsburgh. Maybe this season the Jays will get Eric Hosmer and triple-A depth for Dominic Leone or something.</p>
<h4>September 9 vs. Detroit Tigers – Peanut Reduced Game Promotional Day</h4>
<p>On the surface, nut-reduced days at the ballpark look like an inclusive way to ensure fans of the team who suffer from allergies are able to come down to the stadium. But lurking below the surface is a Mark Shapiro-generated conspiracy that goes all the way to the top. It is one that aims at getting Blue Jay fans to spend their concession dollars on more expensive, elaborate snacks, thus generating more profits than traditional peanut sales for Rogers to pocket. But likely the first one. I see you Mark, I see you.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>BP Toronto&#8217;s Bold Predictions for 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/30/bp-torontos-bold-predictions-for-2017/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/30/bp-torontos-bold-predictions-for-2017/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Mar 2017 10:00:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9848</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s that time again! All of us here at BP Toronto have dusted off our crystal balls and attempted to predict the future of the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays. Qualms? Questions? Comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below. Record in 2017 Andrew Munn &#8211; 89-73 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s that time again! All of us here at BP Toronto have dusted off our crystal balls and attempted to predict the future of the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays. Qualms? Questions? Comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below.</p>
<h2>Record in 2017</h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>89-73</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; They may very well have replaced everyone that they lost.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>81-81 </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Perfectly average.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>83-79 </b>- <span style="font-weight: 400">Still in the mix, but more second wildcard than first.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>84-78</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The lack of depth at most positions scares me.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>88-74</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Arguably the best rotation in the AL won’t be enough if the offense doesn’t improve on 2016.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>91-71</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This number would be higher if Francisco Liriano had any track record of throwing innings.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>85-77</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This team isn’t getting any younger, and the division isn’t getting any easier.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>90-72</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The team underachieved last season and Liriano should an upgrade to an already solid rotation.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>87-75 </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- I actually think this year’s team could be even better than last year’s, but the division&#8217;s tougher.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>92-70</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Best record in the AL East; third straight trip to the postseason.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>66-90</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If you&#8217;re clever, you&#8217;ll realize that this record is missing 6 games and isn&#8217;t really a record at all.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>90-72</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The bullpen won’t be as terrible as it was early in 2016, which should offset offensive losses.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>86-76</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; With the team in the hunt, beer lineups will again be unbearably long at the Rogers Centre.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>87-75</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Like last year, but less good.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>91-71</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A full year from Liriano and break out year from Stroman will make for happy Jays fans.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>93-69</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Last year I was the most optimistic about the team and that hasn&#8217;t changed.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Position Player</h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; All hail our Viking Lord.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- This award should be named after him.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The best player on the team by a mile.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Have you seen his calves in tight socks?<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This isn’t even close.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kevin Pillar</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Improved plate discipline and stellar defense? That&#8217;s a 7 win player.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Is there really anybody who even comes close on both sides of the ball?<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I don’t need to tell you why.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I wanted to go with Joey Bats here, but the new .400+ OBP Donaldson is unfair.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Unsurprisingly, Josh will be team MVP, but Jose Bautista will provide more offense.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He had a .950 OPS in AA in 2015 and probably saves stranded cats in trees.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I’ll offer up Kendrys Morales as Best Position Player given expectations.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; You know why.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A controversial opinion, I know.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Get your umbrellas ready!  It will be an extended rainy season.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; You have to go with Josh until someone passes him by.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Pitcher</h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Starting for USA in the WBC finals means he’s the best American pitcher, right?<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- He will prove the haters wrong and step up BIGly.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>J.A. Happ</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; We’ll yawn through six innings and two runs a night from this guy.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- With the innings talk behind him, Sanchez will truly be dirty.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marco Estrada</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He won’t overpower hitters but he&#8217;s the best on the team.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s blocked all the haters, so now he can just focus on shoving.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Roberto Osuna</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I know we all love the starters, but Roberto deserves some love too.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Dude’s going to pitch like he’s got something to prove.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marco Estrada </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- I have to stay true to my brand and he’s also apparently healthy again. #ACEstrada<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Francisco Liriano</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The bigger question will be if Frank </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">finally </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">reaches the 200 inning plateau.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I&#8217;m betting he picked up a nasty knuckleball while warming the bench with R.A. Dickey.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> -</span><b> Marcus Stroman </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- I’m a member of Team Sanchez but I&#8217;m going all in on #StruttinStroman.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marco Estrada</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Blowin’ 88-mph gas by the rest of the AL East since 2015.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He got Migos glasses, there’s no way he’s losing.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Francisco Liriano</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He will continue his renaissance with Russell Martin.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Francisco Liriano</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; On statistical value, Sanchez might slightly exceed him due to IP.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Breakout Player of the Year</h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Mike Bolsinger</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Not a breakout as a starter, but he might Biagini his way through the bullpen.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Ezequiel Carrera. </b><span style="font-weight: 400">He will wrestle away the starting LF job and call it his own, à la Pillar 2015.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He&#8217;ll get his shot in the outfield eventually, and he&#8217;ll run with it.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Casey Lawrence </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- With no clear sixth starter, Lawrence will dazzle in a spot start and log over 50 IP.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jarrod Saltalamacchia</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Martin needs more time off and Salty will impress with more reps.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kevin Pillar</b><span style="font-weight: 400">- #7WinPlayer<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Tim Mayza</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A 25 year old LHP who throws 99mph? Sign me up when a bullpen arm goes down.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Steve Pearce</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; His injury woes will be gone, thanks to the Jays’ new high performance department.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s going to “break” the “out” with injury streak and have a great, healthy year.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He&#8217;ll get voted to All Star Team as the Royals fans forget he’s gone.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It&#8217;s hard to argue against a two-way player.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Steve Pearce</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Pearce kicks the injury bug and plays 120+ games all over the field.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak </b>- If the front office is right about Smoak, it won’t be just the Cardinals trying to hack the Jays.<br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The Jose-lookalike beard is a sign of things to come.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Steve Pearce</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He will get regular at bats at first base and left field. Time to shine.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It might be June before they give him a full shot, but I still believe.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><b>Comeback Player of the Year</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Melvin Upton Jr.</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Give him a stable situation and let him prove Atlanta was the anomaly.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Last year he wasn&#8217;t at his best. He&#8217;ll be top of the rotation caliber.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I&#8217;m guessing he&#8217;s taken the talk of his decline personally.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Baltimore Orioles beware.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Loup</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A Loup breakout would stabilize the Jays’ bullpen and he might be healthy enough to do it.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The King doesn’t stay down for a long time. He’ll be big.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Russell Martin</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Find your patience and your throwing arm again, Russell, and you&#8217;ll win!<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Whether or not you buy that Bautista plays best angry, he&#8217;s going to have a helluva season.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s silly that he’s even eligible for this, but he’s going to be a monster.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Russell Martin</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; With a capable backup, Martin will get more rest and will rebound as a result.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It&#8217;s tough to be an All-Star OFer when you&#8217;re forced to play in AAA. That&#8217;ll change.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Pompey will boot Uptrrera from LF and stick it to those who wrote him off.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Troy Tulowitzki </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- He didn’t forgo a childhood and train 18 hours a day to be counted out at 32.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; No comment necessary. He&#8217;s back.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista &#8211; </b><span style="font-weight: 400">He has something to prove and we know what that means!<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Troy Tulowitzki</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Tulo still has (at least) one more .850+ OPS season left in him.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><b>Biggest Bust</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Darwin Barney</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s a pretty good year when the biggest bust is your backup second baseman.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; <strong>Melvin Upton</strong> -</span><b> </b><span style="font-weight: 400">Even though his real cost is small, baseball isn’t for him anymore.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marco Estrada</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He had a concerning stretch at the end of last season and that could continue.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rowdy Tellez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- He’s looked completely overmatched this spring. If he gets a shot, expect the hype to die.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He has huge shoes to fill. He won’t replace Edwin and that’s what everyone’s hoping.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jason Grilli</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s old. I’m told that old age isn’t conducive to being good at baseball.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Left Field</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A big hole will open and swallow up whoever is standing out there too long.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This is an easy pick. Nothing we’ve seen suggests that Smoak can be an everyday player.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Expectations for him are so high that even minor regression will seem like a bust.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>J.A. Happ</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’ll be fine, but Joe Fan will be upset he doesn’t replicate his 20 win, low-3 ERA campaign.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey&#8217;s Haters</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This may or may not include a Greco-Canadian with an alliterative name.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jason Grilli</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He was a found wallet in 2016. I’ve never found a wallet, so finding two seems unlikely.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dynamic Pricing</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Rogers will lose a lot of money when no one comes to watch the A&#8217;s on a Monday.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak, Starting 1B </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- He just sounds so morose in his SN590 intro. Doesn’t bode well.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He will lose his job by May.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Basically the only guy on this team I don’t believe in.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><b>Key to 2017 Success</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Hit the Ball</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This lineup is a little bit vulnerable.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Hot Start </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Can’t fall behind too early and give the brass reasons to sell.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Alright, No One Get Hurt</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A top-heavy team can’t afford many injuries.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Mid-Season Bullpen Help</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If Toronto is over .500 at the deadline expect a similar strategy to 2016.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; </span><b>Offense</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; There’s enough pitching and defence to keep them close. The offense will be the difference.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; </span><b>David Price’s Left Arm</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; 1st place becomes a reality for the Jays if the Sox lose Price for long enough.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Positive Regression</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The offense needs to improve enough to offset pitching losses.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rotation Health</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The Jays rotation is as good as they come. The depth…well it doesn&#8217;t exist.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Passing the Baton</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The lineup will be healthy and lengthy. It&#8217;ll will flourish if the players trust the lineup.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; </span><b>Dalton Pompey</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Steve Pearce will need to take over for Smoak at 1B and Carrera/Upton won&#8217;t cut it in LF.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Bullpen Depth</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If things start to sour, we can&#8217;t count on another pair of dynamite acquisitions.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>No Brawling </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- With little depth in the high minors, the Jays can’t lose any players in bench-clearing dustups.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rogers Centre&#8217;s Park Factor </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Morales needs to be good; getting out of Kauffman will help.</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rotation</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; They need to do their best to match last season.<br />
</span><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Health</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It&#8217;s a cliche, but the team isn&#8217;t loaded with depth. The regulars need to be healthy.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><b>One Bold Prediction</b></h2>
<p><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; Toronto will possess a Top 5 bullpen at the end of the season,</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; The team will REALLY struggle, will have a terrible trade deadline, Atkins will be let go, and Cherington will take over.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; Kevin Pillar’s defense falters enough that his starting spot is in question by the end of the year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; John Gibbons will lead MLB in ejections for the second year in a row.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Evan Peaslee</em> &#8211; Dalton Pompey becomes an everyday starter by the All-Star break.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Gideon Turk</em> &#8211; Stroman and Sanchez will both compete for the Cy Young, adding another dimension to their ex-bromance feud. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; Kevin Pillar will walk 61 times.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; Kendrys Morales will make fans forget all about that parrot-toting first baseman when he hits a game-winning home run in the playoffs&#8230;against Cleveland.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; Travis, Tulo, and Pearce each play over 140 games, but radio pundits still bemoan the absence of Ryan Goins.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; Advanced stats websites finally recognize the Blue Jays rotation as the best in the American League.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Matt Gwin</em> &#8211; Dalton Pompey will be the Blue Jays full time left fielder by May and cement himself as the best at his position in the AL East.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; At least one other player will block Gideon on Twitter and Devon Travis will get this year’s late All-Star campaign.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; Kendrys Morales will hit 40 home runs….and 7 doubles this season. Gonna be a lot of long, loud singles at the Rogers Centre in 2017. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; Two Blue Jays players marry each other over the All-Star break.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; Morales has a better season than EE.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; Blue Jays win the AL East.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em><span style="font-weight: 400">Lead Photo: © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</span></em></p>
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		<title>Russell Martin on the Art of Pitch Calling: A Masters in Communication</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/the-art-of-pitch-calling-a-masters-in-communication/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/the-art-of-pitch-calling-a-masters-in-communication/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Mar 2017 11:22:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;If you believe your catcher is intelligent and you know that he has considerable experience, it is a good thing to leave the game almost entirely in his hands.&#8221; - Bob Feller DUNEDIN &#8211; Catcher defense is an interesting thing. When trying to evaluate it, most of the talk has shifted towards pitch framing (or [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>&#8220;If you believe your catcher is intelligent and you know that he has considerable experience,<br />
it is a good thing to leave the game almost entirely in his hands.&#8221; </em>- Bob Feller</p>
<p>DUNEDIN &#8211; Catcher defense is an interesting thing. When trying to evaluate it, most of the talk has shifted towards pitch framing (or receiving), with cursory mentions of “controlling the running game” and blocking ability. This makes some sense, as we have data to quantify all of these things. But if you were to ask most catchers, their primary objective is guiding a pitcher through the game &#8211; pitch calling.</p>
<p>As a pitcher, this area of the game has always held the deepest fascination for me. There is something truly unique in the battle between the batter and the battery, yet it often goes completely unnoticed by anybody but the most die hard of baseball fans. In an effort to correct that, I talked to the Blue Jays catchers (and a pitcher) to see how they approach this esoteric segment of the game.</p>
<p>For Russell Martin, everything begins with communication:</p>
<p><em>“Most pitchers &#8211; young or old &#8211; have a good idea of what they like to do when they go out on the mound…just talking to the guys is the first aspect of my preparation; I feel like it helps build the chemistry with the player itself; just listening to what Marco has to say, just listening to what Stroman likes to say, listening to what the pitching coach has to say too. Everybody&#8217;s got information and my job is to keep the information that&#8217;s helpful to me and what I&#8217;m trying to accomplish.</em></p>
<p>It’s a simple enough concept to get your head around: Ask the guy what he wants to throw beforehand, so that things go much smoother in the game. But communication doesn’t just mean asking, “what do you want to throw?” If that were the case, there would be no such thing as a good pitch calling catcher. Communication also means knowing when to put your foot down.</p>
<p>For the most part, a catcher will suggest a pitch and the pitcher will throw it. If the guy on the mound wants to throw something else, they’ll shake off and the catcher will suggest a different pitch. However, that&#8217;s not always the case.</p>
<p><em>&#8220;There are times, [and] it&#8217;s not often, where your gut will tell you, &#8216;ugh, I don&#8217;t really feel like it&#8217;s the situation&#8217; or you feel like a hitter is sitting on a certain pitch and that&#8217;s the pitch the pitcher wants to throw. There are times where time needs to be called and you need to have a quick conversation with the guy on the mound.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;I&#8217;m just trying to help them, or guide them through a game, using what they have that day.”</em></p>
<p>Even that is a fine line, however. There are considerations beyond simply getting to the &#8216;right&#8217; pitch for the situation:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;You have to be very intuitive when you go talk to [the pitcher]&#8230;the best pitch is the one that&#8217;s going to be thrown with conviction. So if the pitcher really believes in the pitch that he&#8217;s going to make, it&#8217;s probably the best pitch. Because if I go up there and I talk to him and say, &#8216;hey, I was thinking this&#8217; and he just goes off what I was thinking, but he doesn&#8217;t throw the pitch with conviction, then it&#8217;s not necessarily the pitch that I was thinking anymore.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That’s something we hear about with occasional frequency on the broadcast, but never really much in depth. It can be difficult to get your head around the idea that merely suggesting a curveball when the pitcher was thinking fastball could mean you get a bad curveball instead. People expect that a major league pitcher should have confidence in all of his stuff. Martin agrees, noting that it&#8217;s &#8220;the job of the pitcher.&#8221; However, while a pitcher can try to make himself believe it, &#8220;sometimes what we say as people is not necessarily how feel inside.&#8221; In fact, Marco Estrada <a title="Marco Estrada Embraces Leadership Role; Ready to Repeat 2015" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/marco-estrada-embraces-his-leadership-role-ready-to-repeat-2015/" target="_blank">had to teach himself to trust all of his stuff</a> as recently as last year.</p>
<p>Communication matters and it&#8217;s more than just talking to someone; you have to know just what to say. Martin happens to be one of the best in the game at reading pitches, so when he talks, pitchers listen. We saw some evidence of this last year with J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>The tall lefty was coming off one of the best ten start stretches a pitcher can have, posting a 1.37 ERA and 9.6 K/9 through the end of the 2015 season with Pittsburgh. He had that extreme success while throwing an inordinate number of fourseam fastballs. Yet right from the get-go, Martin was calling way more <em>twoseamers</em> to go with that fourseamer.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9246" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (6)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>It wasn’t just some random experiment, either. Martin knew what he was doing:</p>
<p><em>“[Happ]&#8217;s able to locate that fourseam fastball up and in on righties&#8217; hands and then the two-seamer, it’s a pitch that&#8217;s moving out of the zone at the bottom of the zone. So, having to cover the up and in and then down and away; one moving away from you, the other one boring in on you. That’s TOUGH to do. You can put a ball that&#8217;s not moving in those spots and they&#8217;re hard to hit, right? So if you can get a little velocity with that and a little movement, it&#8217;s even harder.”</em></p>
<p>Without that read from Martin and then the ability to get that across to Happ, we may have only seen fourseam Happ all year. Thankfully, he and Martin were on the same page. Happ:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;I was focused a little bit on mechanics and just being aggressive in Pittsburgh. And here I just started tinkering a little bit &#8211; trying to keep that same mindset, but also keep that two-seamer because I know in the past that has been a big pitch for me.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;I always say [the pitcher/catcher relationship] is an underrated thing and it’s nice to have a spring training &#8211; especially when you&#8217;re on a new team &#8211; to get to know that new catcher and develop that relationship. They know how you pitch, how you work, how your stuff works and plays. That&#8217;s huge to have a guy who understands that.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>The results speak for themselves, as Happ had easily the best season of his career, very heavily due to his pitch mix. However, when I mentioned <a title="How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball’s Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">Happ’s unique fastball movement</a> and asked if it was part of the decision to change things up, Martin wasn’t fully aware:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;I felt it, but I didn&#8217;t know that…I&#8217;m glad there are people out there that are gathering that information and giving it a numerical meaning and explaining why it&#8217;s effective. For me it&#8217;s more of an instinctual thing. What I&#8217;m seeing from behind the plate is guys not hit the ball hard and guys having a hard time catching up to it. And it&#8217;s like a more simplistic way, but then if you want to quantify it with data, that&#8217;s great &#8211; I&#8217;m all for that.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>It makes some sense. As a catcher, it’s Martin’s job to see the pitches and, “[try] to stay one step ahead&#8230;finding out what works in certain situations against a certain type of hitter.” He needs to be able to read the swings and the quality of the pitches with his eyes, even if PITCHf/x data might suggest something else. Essentially, raw &#8220;stuff&#8221; isn&#8217;t the major factor when it comes to Martin&#8217;s pitch-calling:</p>
<p><em>“A pitcher can have a nasty cutter, but if that cutter is down the middle a lot, there&#8217;s a good chance hitters are going to get good swings on it. Then I don&#8217;t know what the numbers are on that pitch, but I don&#8217;t even need to know the numbers. I&#8217;m like ok, if this guy makes mistakes with this pitch often in the middle of the plate, it&#8217;s not a high percentage quality pitch. But if he has another pitch that he locates and when he misses, he misses off the plate &#8211; and when he gets it, it&#8217;s in a hard area to hit with any power&#8230; There are certain pitches that are just tough to hit.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;In all honesty, every pitcher has strengths and things he&#8217;s not as good at. I wouldn&#8217;t call them weaknesses, because every single pitcher&#8217;s pitches are good. There are just certain pitches that they command a bit better, that they have more confidence in. And you have to know your pitcher.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>So while Martin appreciates our attempts to see the why, it seems he prefers to trust his own intuition. He makes the best selection with what his eyes tell him &#8211; monitoring stuff, location, and hitter swings &#8211; but not the numbers. It has gotten him this far, so there’s no reason to doubt it. But even if he doesn’t know it, he is still subconsciously embracing the data and passing it onto the next generation. When I spoke to catching prospect Reese McGuire, he had this to say:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;We&#8217;re constantly trying to learn as catchers and Russell and [Jarrod Saltalamacchia] have both been tremendous with leading that.&#8221; </em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;I think that [PITCHf/x data and Statcast] is the next step &#8211; that&#8217;s the next level &#8211; when they&#8217;re going to have a little bit more information. I&#8217;ve already heard Russell and Salty talk about that too, where a certain pitcher, he&#8217;s coming from a certain side of the rubber and he might not get a certain call percentage wise, say he gets screwed on a strike because of the angle his ball is coming across the plate.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That was very fun to hear, as it&#8217;s not something we ever really consider when looking at whether a pitch was called correctly. We tend to blame the umpire or credit the catcher&#8217;s receiving, but it sounds like it&#8217;s also a big part of the catcher knowing what pitches are easier and tougher for an umpire to call correctly and then calling pitches in or away from those locations. That information can be huge in getting or not getting strikes in key spots.</p>
<p>Pitch sequencing is a constant game of cat-and-mouse, with the pitchers and catchers trying to outsmart the best hitters in the world. Get this guy to reach for this, or to totally misread that. Change your angle on this to make him miss that. It’s fascinating to watch and just as fun to learn. Martin is the professor teaching a master class.</p>
<p><em>“My goal…is to stay one step ahead and find out what works in certain situations against a certain type of hitter. The game changes &#8211; the hitters are trying to make adjustments too &#8211; and there&#8217;s not just one right call I can make, but as long as I know my pitcher and he believes that I know him and we feel confident together, then we&#8217;re a better team.”</em></p>
<p>A better team? That&#8217;s a good call.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Breaking Down the Blue Jays Strong Pitching Depth</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/breaking-down-the-blue-jays-strong-pitching-depth/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Feb 2017 11:41:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitching Depth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Rotation]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The oft expressed concern about almost any pitching staff, no matter how seemingly talented, is depth. It is a truism in baseball that you can never have too much pitching.  In particular Blue Jays fans have been muttering all winter about the lack of starting pitching depth behind their admirable rotation, but also many were [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The oft expressed concern about almost any pitching staff, no matter how seemingly talented, is depth. It is a truism in baseball that you can never have too much pitching.  In particular Blue Jays fans have been muttering all winter about the lack of starting pitching depth behind their admirable rotation, but also many were suspicious of the bullpen options until the recent signings of J.P. Howell and Joe Smith. But there&#8217;s more here than meets the eye.</p>
<p>Last season, 27 pitchers (not including Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins) pitched at least one inning for the Jays, 22 pitched at least five. In 2015, 23 pitched at least five, in 2014 20 gave them at least five innings. That gives you a fair ballpark of what your depth needs to look like.</p>
<p>As of this writing, there are no less than 33 pitchers who would, were it not for overcrowding, pencil in to the pitching staffs of either Toronto or Buffalo. This includes pitchers on the 40 man roster, pitchers signed to minor league contracts with big league camp invites, and a few guys listed on the Buffalo roster whose age and experience would normally make them at least AAA pitchers. In order to analyze such a group, it&#8217;s necessary to break down the candidates into manageable semgent. Let&#8217;s sort them according to their projected roles and possibility of being so assigned. In one area, it will be necessary to have some overlap as this article is primarily about bullpen options, but it&#8217;s needful to mention the starter candidates in passing. I&#8217;ll elaborate as I go. As always and obvious, all this assumes health for all individuals, which will certainly not be the actual case.</p>
<h3>Group A &#8211; Potential Starters</h3>
<ul>
<li>Tier 1  (Certain MLB Starters)
<ul>
<li>Aaron Sanchez</li>
<li>J.A. Happ</li>
<li>Marco Estrada</li>
<li>Francisco Liriano</li>
<li>Marcus Stroman</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tier 2 (Potential AAA Starters)
<ul>
<li>Joe Biagini</li>
<li>Mat Latos</li>
<li>Gavin Floyd</li>
<li>Mike Bolsinger</li>
<li>Casey Lawrence</li>
<li>T.J. House</li>
<li>Brett Oberholtzer</li>
<li>Lucas Harrell</li>
<li>Jarrett Grube</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>It goes without saying that the Bisons won&#8217;t have a nine man rotation, which is why there will be some overlap with some of these guys and the upcoming lists. Bear with me a bit.</p>
<h3>Group B &#8211; Potential Relievers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Tier 1 (Certain MLB Relievers)
<ul>
<li>Roberto Osuna</li>
<li>Jason Grilli</li>
<li>J.P. Howell</li>
<li>Joe Smith</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tier 2 (Potential MLB Relievers)
<ul>
<li>Mat Latos</li>
<li>Gavin Floyd</li>
<li>Aaron Loup</li>
<li>Matt Dermody</li>
<li>T.J. House</li>
<li>Chad Girodo</li>
<li>Jeff Believeau</li>
<li>Glenn Sparkman</li>
<li>Mike Bolsinger</li>
<li>Bo Schultz</li>
<li>Dominic Leone</li>
<li>Ryan Tepera</li>
<li>Danny Barnes</li>
<li>Chris Smith</li>
<li>Will Browning</li>
<li>Casey Lawrence</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Joe Biagini Role</h3>
<p>You may ask, &#8220;Why not Joe Biagini for the Joe Biagini role?&#8221; The answer to that quandary is somewhat dependent on how the rest of the bullpen shakes out, which is why we&#8217;ll leave him for now. We know that he is going to work through spring as a starter for now to give the team options. If he does end up as a reliever then he will certainly own the fifth job in the Toronto bullpen.</p>
<p>However, he has options, he has a potential future in the rotation next year when two of the front five starters are scheduled to be potentially lost to free agency, and the team need look no further than the closer to see the conundrum that can be created by prioritizing current relief work over future starter potential. Just as importantly, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/24/joe-biagini-should-start-the-season-as-a-starting-pitcher/" target="_blank">as Matt Gwin explained last week</a>, he&#8217;s shown the ability to be viable as a starter. Because of all this, the team may explore sending Biagini to Buffalo and plugging someone else into his spot if another candidate impresses them in the spring. Here are some other candidates for the Biagini slot.</p>
<h4>Mat Latos</h4>
<p>Latos saw his velocity return during a brief stint in the Nationals bullpen last year. As such he may be a candidate for a bullpen conversion, which has, in some cases, worked for other starters struggling with velocity loss. He could be a depth starter at Buffalo, however he has an opt-out at the end of spring training (and another later in the season) and the Jays will have to consider this for conservation of resources. Logically, if the team wants a sixth starter option and a quality bullpen arm, Biagini and Latos would be the candidates. You wouldn&#8217;t want both in Toronto&#8217;s pen nor Buffalo&#8217;s rotation. Of course, it&#8217;s also possible that Latos has a poor showing in spring, in which case his major league roster consideration is moot.</p>
<h4>Gavin Floyd</h4>
<p>Floyd actually pitched well in a relief role before he was injured last year; an injury from which he has not 100% recovered. As always, he&#8217;s a ticking clock until his next injury, but he&#8217;s similar to Latos in that he has potential for a more back of the bullpen role. Choosing Floyd for one of the remaining relief spots also lets the Biagini/Latos question play out a bit further (assuming the latter accepts an assignment to Buffalo).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Second Lefty</h3>
<p>A team that has a reasonable choice won&#8217;t go into the season with only one guy that they can throw at the other team&#8217;s left handed hitters. As such the the second lefty is often a specialist only.</p>
<h4>Aaron Loup</h4>
<p>Ostensibly, this should be Aaron Loup&#8217;s job. But it should have been his last year too and the Jays somehow managed to use him for only 14.1 major league innings. His experience and contract carry some weight here.</p>
<h4>Matt Dermody</h4>
<p>A change in delivery last spring enabled Dermody to turn around a marginal career and rocket through the Blue Jays minor league system. However, it wasn&#8217;t all good: he didn&#8217;t dominate AAA hitters as he had at lower levels. Unless he really impresses in spring, it seems reasonable to expect they would ask him to prove himself before they push Loup aside for him.</p>
<h4>T.J. House</h4>
<p>The Jays probably want House to be a depth starter in Buffalo, but management has a history with him in Cleveland. Being that he&#8217;s a lefty and that he pitched in relief part time in the minors last season they will surely talk about him in this role if he has a good spring.</p>
<h4>Chad Girodo</h4>
<p>Having been pushed off the 40 man roster, his chances for opening day are much slimmer. Girodo did deliver excellent results until he got to the second half of last August. It would be unwise to count him out just yet.</p>
<h4>Jeff Believeau</h4>
<p>For a complete description of Believeau look no further than a piece I wrote on him in <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/15/what-to-think-about-jeff-beliveau/">December</a> when he was signed. He&#8217;s an interesting guy. Like Girodo, not being on the 40 man roster makes it unlikely that Believeau will break camp with the Blue Jays, but I think he could force their hand.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The &#8220;We Need to Keep This Guy&#8221; 7th Reliever</h3>
<p>The final slot will serve as a clearing house, more than likely, for pitchers that the team stands to lose if they do not make the team. There are three prominent individuals (Latos could fall in this category as well) who would seem to be in direct competition with each other.</p>
<h4>Glenn Sparkman</h4>
<p>Sparkman, also known as Biagini 2.0, is a Rule 5 pick that would have to make the team to be kept. If he doesn&#8217;t stay on the 25-man roster (or the disabled list) he to be offered back to Kansas City. Given the competition and the conditions, it&#8217;s difficult to see how he manages to cling to this spot, but if he does, he&#8217;ll have definitely earned it.</p>
<h4>Mike Bolsinger</h4>
<p>Bolsinger pitched really well in Oklahoma City for the Dodgers&#8217; AAA affiliate last season. He&#8217;s out of options and the team risks losing him if he doesn&#8217;t make the majors. There&#8217;s one question that they have to ask themselves: is there another team whose last pitcher is a guy they&#8217;d be willing to replace with Bolsinger? If their answer is a yes then Toronto will likely try to sneak Bolsinger through waivers.</p>
<h4>Bo Schultz</h4>
<p>Bo Schultz is admittedly a fringy guy, but he&#8217;s done good work in Toronto apart from stumbling after a late season recall last year. Also out of options, Schultz is the sort of guy who has a fairly high probability of getting through late March waivers.</p>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Everyone Else</h3>
<p>Let&#8217;s not fail to mention that everyone here, if they stay healthy and in the organization, will likely pitch for the Blue Jays at some point during the year. We&#8217;ve gone through 20 names so far, but there are more. Other pitchers in the organization are veterans of the shuttle, are available on the 40 man roster, have major league experience, or will have impressed decision makers in the organization. Here are a few.</p>
<p>Dominic Leone was outstanding in Seattle in 2014, then failed to duplicate that success. The Blue Jays already demonstrated their faith in Ryan Tepera. Danny Barnes has a lot of buzz around him after a successful 2016 minor league season. Chris Smith was added to the 40 man roster late last season and got some time on the major league roster. These guys have some talent; they&#8217;re high risk, but not desperation options.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s the aforementioned spring training invite starters: Brett Oberholtzer, Lucas Harrell, and Jarrett Grube. If they show well in Buffalo, they might earn a look. However, if any of these guys get much more than a cup of coffee in the majors, the Blue Jays will have been in deep trouble.</p>
<p>Lastly there&#8217;s long time organizational arms Casey Lawrence and Will Browning. Browning lingered in big league camp last spring and Lawrence took a step up both velocity and results last season. Both might be dark horse candidates for a breakout moment. You can throw Leonel Campos in to that group as well. While he&#8217;s only just gotten to the Blue Jays, he has some breakout potential (albeit not much).</p>
<p>That&#8217;s 30 pitchers who might take the mound at least once for the Blue Jays this year. Most of them are respectable options, especially compared to the haphazard depth of Blue Jays seasons past. Bravo on this front, Ross Atkins. For the first time in a long time there will be credible choices that&#8217;ll have to be pushed to AAA. While that&#8217;ll stink for the pitcher in question, it&#8217;s certainly a good thing for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What does PECOTA have to say about the Blue Jays?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/08/what-does-pecota-have-to-say-about-the-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2017 11:58:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PECOTA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8948</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With spring training just around the corner and the bullpen finally taking form we&#8217;re starting to get a real sense of how the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays will look come Opening Day. Part of the fun of the offseason’s final days is looking through the myriad projections that find their way onto our screens and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With spring training just around the corner and the bullpen finally taking form we&#8217;re starting to get a real sense of how the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays will look come Opening Day. Part of the fun of the offseason’s final days is looking through the myriad projections that find their way onto our screens and into our hearts. Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections yesterday, and had some interesting things to say about the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>(<em>Ed. note: before we jump in, it’s important to note that the numbers below represent PECOTA’s 50<sup>th</sup> percentile forecast. Things look increasingly sunny in the higher percentiles, so it isn’t all doom and gloom- we’re looking at the median, so PECOTA gives the players a 50% probability of outperforming these projections</em>)</p>
<h2>Team Level</h2>
<p>While an early morning edition had the Jays at 82-80, behind the 90-72 Red Sox and 84-78 Rays, the ticking clock saw Toronto’s projected record drop to 81-81; tied with the Yankees. That’s a bit of a harsh evaluation of the team, but PECOTA does seem to view the Jays in a mostly positive light.</p>
<p>To wit, they’re projected to score 767 runs. While that’s only eight more than they scored last season, it would be good enough for fourth in PECOTA’s 2017 AL (behind Cleveland’s 798, Seattle’s 770 and Houston’s 768) and put them tied with the Cubs for fifth overall. As for the mighty Red Sox? PECOTA projects 750 runs, a drop from last year’s 878 that calls to mind the Jays’ own drop from 2015 (891) to 2016 (759). Here’s hoping.</p>
<p>Their team OBP of .332 would be good for third in both the AL and MLB, behind Cleveland and Boston, and their TAv of .266 trails only Houston at .268 and the Dodgers and Cubs at .267. Safe to say that PECOTA is projecting a strong offensive showing from Toronto’s new look roster.</p>
<p>Given the mastery of Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki, it’s no surprise that the team rates highly by FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average). Their FRAA of 27.0 would be good for seventh in all of MLB, though that number is closer to the middle of the pack than it is to Seattle’s whopping 59.2 and second-best LA’s 41.0.</p>
<p>So the Jays are projected to have a top five offense and a top ten defense, yet are a .500 ballclub. That’s because PECOTA clearly does not like Toronto’s pitching staff.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitching</h2>
<p>We know all about Toronto transforming their identity from 2015’s bangers and mashers to 2016’s elite pitching staff. To see them projected so harshly here is a bit of a surprise, though the picture clears up a bit when acknowledge that PECOTA uses comparable players and major league equivalencies of minor league stats.</p>
<p>Given the youth of the staff’s former best friends, the mid-career renaissance of JA Happ and the perpetual projection-buster that is Marco Estrada, it’s not all that surprising to see Toronto’s pitching projected for a step back. With the exception of Francisco Liriano, any projections relying on career baselines and player comparables rest on relatively shaky ground.</p>
<p>The four returning starters combined for 11.8 PWARP last season and are projected to total just 4.2 this season. Even acknowledging room for some regression, that pales in comparison to what we know this group is capable of. It should also be noted that PECOTA projects between 28 and 31 starts for all five members of the rotation, which would point to some good fortune in the health department.</p>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez:</strong> <em>10-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 139/75 K/BB, 1.1 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Marcus Stroman:</strong> <em>11-9, 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 162/64 K/BB, 2.0 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Marco Estrada:</strong> <em>10-10, 4.84 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 147/69 K/BB, 0.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>JA Happ:</strong> <em>10-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 147/62 K/BB, 0.9 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Francisco Liriano:</strong> <em>10-9, 4.27 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 177/86 K/BB, 1.4 WARP</em></p>
<h2>Bullpen</h2>
<p>With the signings of Joe Smith and JP Howell, the Jays suddenly have five of seven (please lord, not eight) spots in the bullpen filled and ready. They’ll be led, as always, by Roberto Osuna. Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini will join Howell, Smith, and some combination of Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, Danny Barnes and Glenn Sparkman. It should be noted that recent talk has <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/walker-jays-plan-to-stretch-out-biagini~1046496" target="_blank">Joe Biagini getting stretched out</a>. He has a history of starting in the minors and has a terrific pitch mix, so he makes plenty of sense as a high leverage guy who can handle multiple innings or as a potential spot starter. But alas, PECOTA doesn’t feel too great about the bullpen either.</p>
<p><strong>Roberto Osuna:</strong> <em>60 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 63/18 K/BB, 0.8 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Joe Biagini:</strong> <em>70 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 52/27 K/BB, 0.4 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Jason Grilli:</strong> <em>50 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 60/24 K/BB, 0.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>JP Howell:</strong> <em>45 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 38/16 K/BB, 0.0 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Joe Smith:</strong> <em>50 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB, 0.1 WARP</em></p>
<p>The projections seem to dislike guys who don&#8217;t bring much velocity to the table as Howell and Smith join Estrada as high eighties tossers who get outs in the field. The projections are also quite rough on Osuna, who has played much closer to some of his higher percentile projections in his first two seasons.</p>
<h2>Offense</h2>
<p>The Jays&#8217; top five players by WARP all handle the bats, and there&#8217;s no surprise at number one.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson</strong><em><strong>:</strong> .278/.367/.506, 31 HR, .299 TAv, 5.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Russell Martin:</strong> <em>.236/.337/.407, 19 HR, .264 TAv, 4.0 WARP<br />
</em><strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong><em><strong>:</strong> .270/.346/.463, 22 HR, .277 TAv, 3.4 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Jose Bautista:</strong> .253/.370/.488, 31 HR, .297 TAv, 3.2 WARP<br />
<strong>Devon Travis:</strong> <em>.276/.327/.434, 16 HR, .264 TAv, 2.4 WARP</em>.</p>
<p>Donaldson&#8217;s projected WARP would be good for 11<sup>th</sup> in all of baseball; he&#8217;s pretty good at this. Somewhat surprisingly, Russell Martin is second on the list coming off a disappointing season that was haunted by nagging injuries. If the training staff can help keep Tulowitzki out there, expect some top flight numbers out of the shortstop position. PECOTA has Tulo making 542 plate appearances coming off a year where he made 544. A third year of good health is essential if the Jays want to outperform PECOTA&#8217;s record.</p>
<p>Considering Joey Bats was worth only 0.5 WARP last season, that’s a heck of a bounceback year. Perhaps more interestingly is the fact that Bautista is projected to play 70% of the games in right and another 15% at DH. That’s a bit more in the field than you’d like, but if he can deliver those numbers with the bat it’ll be worth the defensive pains.</p>
<p>For Devon Travis, the most pressing matter is always health. PECOTA has him slotted for 611 PA’s, which would be a dream come true for fans considering the promising second baseman has been kept to 238 and 432 PA’s in his first two seasons. A full year of Travis at second would be a tremendous boost; beyond his own production it would allow Darwin Barney and/or Ryan Goins to spell Donaldson and Tulowitzki more frequently.</p>
<h2>The Rest</h2>
<p>There are some clear position battles at first base and in left field, and obviously Kendrys Morales is someone we&#8217;re all curious about, not to mention the rest of the bullpen, but we can&#8217;t give this all away! If you want to see the rest (and the 10-90th percentiles for all of these players), <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/subscriptions" target="_blank">subscribe to Baseball Prospectus</a>! If you use the promo code &#8220;PECOTA17&#8243; you&#8217;ll get a 17% discount.</p>
<h2>Extra Fun</h2>
<p>One of PECOTA&#8217;s most fun tools is the player comparables, which are sure to turn up some interesting parallels. Bautista&#8217;s top three are Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield and Carlos Beltran, and Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s third comparable is Derek Jeter. Someone should tell Buck Martinez, who might be able to mention the two in the same sentence if he really works at it. Roberto Osuna is in some good company, with his top two being Jose Fernandez and Chris Sale. Osuna&#8217;s five, six and seven are Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strausburg and Madison Bumgarner. That&#8217;s uh, not too bad. Are we sure he should be a reliever?</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman also has some very nice names with Sonny Gray, Ubaldo Jimenez (circa 2010), and Jon Lester in his top five. In a cruel twist of fate, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s third comparable is none other than Stroman himself. #RIPStroChez</p>
<p>Among other fun notes is that Rowdy Tellez has been tabbed for an eight game stint at first base, while PECOTA has A.J. Jimenez and Michael Ohlman as the two primary backup catchers. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will probably win the backup catcher job and Juan Graterol certainly has a better crack at the roster than Ohlman, but we’ll see what happens.</p>
<p>PECOTA is a projection system, not a prediction system, and is pretty conservative in its evaluations, but Toronto management would likely be quite pleased with the offensive projections and rest easy knowing that their pitchers are capable of busting the metrics. At the moment it’s good fun to see where the Blue Jays are predicted to finish according to the multitude of smart baseball minds doling out projections. We’ll be on to real baseball soon enough.</p>
<p>Once again, if you want to see the rest of the projections for not just the Blue Jays, but the entire league (in an easy to browse spreadsheet if you want), <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/subscriptions" target="_blank">subscribe to Baseball Prospectus</a> with the promo code &#8220;PECOTA17&#8243; and you&#8217;ll have it all!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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