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What to think about Jeff Beliveau?

If you said he might actually help out the major league squad, would anyone believe-you? There’s an argument to be made either way, but let me step back and cover the basics.

If you didn’t notice, the Blue Jays signed the LHP to a minor league contract today with the standard invitation to spring training. At first blush you kinda really like the guy because he racks up high strikeout numbers. Your first guess would be he’s a guy with a power fastball but not so much.  Per Brooks Baseball, Believeau works off a fastball that sits 90-91 and tops out at 93 and he has a nice 10 MPH separation between his fastball and change-up. While real scouting reports are hard to come by, the description I’ve seen (found in the comment thread to this post) account his strikeout totals to hiding the ball well and creating a lot of deception with changing speeds and good control.

The pessimistic argument would be that he’ll be 30 in January and has only been able to stick in the majors and be effective for any length of time once. Moreover he’s not known for excellent velocity or stuff and on his career has walked too many even though he’s also posted nice strikeout numbers.

Perhaps that’s the best way to view him, but what if one puts on their optimistic glasses and looks again?

Believau was drafted out of Florida Atlantic in the 18th round of the 2008 draft. aside from a couple of outs in rookie ball, he made his debut in the Northwest League as a sometimes starter who walked far too many (28 in almost 35 IP) but also struck out an impressive 51 batters. The next year, at 22 in the Midwest League he mostly came on in relief he lowered the walk rate significantly and still struck out more than a batter per inning. In 2010 he got the walk rate down to 4.1/9 and struck out 13.6/9 and reached AA. He was still being used as a starter even when he didn’t start, often going 4-5 innings of relief.  He was on a clear upward trajectory and the best was yet to come.

In 2011 at 24 he moved from High A up to AA in early May and pitched exclusively in relief. In a combined 74.1 IP he posted a 1.82 ERA and registered 10.8 K/9, while dropping the BB/9 all the way to 2.3 and his H/9 rate was also a crisp 6.1 which put him on the organizations radar if he hadn’t been before. In fact, he was the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year that season. In 2012 he moved up to AAA which, given the Cubs had a PCL affiliate, was nothing to be ashamed of at all. He made his major league debut in the second half, putting up 17.2 innings marred by the return of a poor walk rate. Still, just based on statistics it would have been hard to speak ill of him in the fall of 2012. Even so, the Cubs lost him on a waiver claim on December 12 to the Texas Rangers. Texas then sold him to the Rays in April.

He spent most of 2013 with AAA Durham, and the BB/9 was back up over four, but his K/9 was over 15. In 2014 he split the season between AAA and Tampa and he’d brought the BB/9 rate back down to 3.15 and struck out 11.8 per nine.  He also picked up his only career save, versus your Toronto Blue Jays. Very early in 2015 he tore his labrum and missed the rest of the season. Last year, having singed as a minor league free agent with Baltimore, he accomplished the most important task, staying on the roster all year and itching to his standards. The walk rate was up again but coming off major shoulder surgery that can be overlooked.

It’s also worth noting that whether his control is solid, or shaky, it’s consistently better vs LH batters. At least as far back as 2011 when he had the breakout season (in fact, in that year he threw 27.1 innings to LH hitters and didn’t walk a single one).  That’s tendency is something a manager can adjust to in order to get the most efficient work from him.

Now, it’s a legitimate question to ask, if his stats are so impressive why hasn’t he secured a full time major league job? But we’ve seen guys fall through the cracks before and arrive late to the party. I’m not telling you this guy will be a breakout piece for the Blue Jays’ needy bullpen. after all I’m almost entirely scouting the stats and that has obvious limitations, I’m only saying it’s a lot more possible than maybe your average minor league signing.

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