<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Toronto &#187; Joshua Howsam</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/joshuahowsam/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:35:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>Thank You</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/12/07/thank-you/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/12/07/thank-you/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Dec 2018 12:02:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16843</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hello Blue Jays fans, As some of you may already be aware, BP Toronto is joining the rest of the BP Locals in shuttering its doors. After three seasons covering the club at our own special little corner of Baseball Prospectus, we are officially closing up shop as of this post. The good news is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello Blue Jays fans,</p>
<p>As some of you may already be aware, BP Toronto is joining the rest of the BP Locals in shuttering its doors. After three seasons covering the club at our own special little corner of Baseball Prospectus, we are officially closing up shop as of this post.</p>
<p>The good news is that instead of being shut down, we are moving on to bigger and better things. In lieu of continuing to fill this space with our thoughts and ramblings, we will now be moving our Blue Jays (and more) analysis over to the flagship &#8211; <a href="www.baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus</a>. You will still be able to find the writers whose work you have come to know and whose quirks and passions you have grown to enjoy. They will just all be in one place mixed with the brilliant work of the rest of the staff at BP.</p>
<p>As for this page specifically, all of the content that has appeared here in the past will stay up as a reference if you ever want to look back at something interesting, or just remind yourself how wrong we can be!</p>
<p>Finally, we want to thank all of you for coming to this site every day(ish!) and making it feel like a home for some really passionate Blue Jays fans and writers who wouldn&#8217;t be doing this if it weren&#8217;t for your eyes and minds. We write because we all want to share our love for this team and this game, and you made that possible.</p>
<p>So on behalf of the entire staff at BP Toronto, thank you all once again and we hope to continue to provide the type of content we and you can be proud of over at BP.</p>
<p>Sincerely,</p>
<p>Joshua Howsam<br />
Now Former Editor-in-Chief</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/12/07/thank-you/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>4</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Blue Jays Send J.A. Happ to Yankees for 2B/3B Brandon Drury and OF Billy McKinney</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2018 19:07:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16425</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Thursday, the Blue Jays completed their second deal this week, sending J.A. Happ to the Yankees in exchange for utility player Brandon Drury and OF prospect Billy McKinney. Source: Yankees sending Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney to Jays in the trade for J.A. Happ. Congressman @JonHeyman was first to report them as potential return. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Thursday, the Blue Jays completed their second deal this week, sending J.A. Happ to the Yankees in exchange for utility player Brandon Drury and OF prospect Billy McKinney.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Yankees sending Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney to Jays in the trade for J.A. Happ. Congressman <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JonHeyman</a> was first to report them as potential return.</p>
<p>&mdash; Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) <a href="https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1022549526991785985?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 26, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s been clear for quite a while now that the Blue Jays would be trading their top lefty this season, with the Yankees always reported as the most likely destination. That said, it&#8217;s still going to be tough to see the tall southpaw go.</p>
<p>Since re-joining the Blue Jays as a free agent following the 2015 season, Happ has been nothing short of spectacular. He started things off with a bang, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA across a career-high 195 innings in 2016, leading the Blue Jays to their second straight ALCS appearance. Overall with the club, he has posted a 40-21 record with a 3.55 ERA and 435 strikeouts to 141 walks in 454 innings. That turned out to be tremendous value for a three-year, $36M contract, but now it will actually end up being even more valuable, thanks to the trade.</p>
<p>New York should be happy with what they get for the three year Blue Jay. As I&#8217;ve written many times in this space, Happ has really transformed himself since coming to Toronto, using a high break-variance combo of fastballs to keep hitters off-balance despite only throwing 93-94 mph. It&#8217;ll be interesting to see if the Yankees catchers use his stuff the right way, as over-reliance on one of the fastballs instead of the other could see a negative regression.</p>
<p>As for the return, Brandon Drury comes to Toronto, currently sporting a disappointing .176/.263/.275 line, though that is in only 57 plate appearances. The former 13th round pick is hitting .292/.403/.444 in 259 triple-A plate appearances after posting a line of .275/.323/.453 in 979 PA in Arizona in 2016-2017. So he clearly has some track record of hitting in the big leagues. Perhaps the increased walk rate in triple-A this year has caught Toronto&#8217;s eye. Drury also will come to the Blue Jays with four years of control, thanks to that time in the minors, which was surely appealing to this front office.</p>
<p>Drury as a headliner is little surprising given that he profiles very similarly to a couple of people already on the roster: Yangervis Solarte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Like the two current Blue Jays, Drury plays second and third and can also fill in as an outfielder. He also carries a similar approach as Gurriel and Devon Travis with medium pop and high contact, though while Drury has never been called patient, he does walk more than the Blue Jays&#8217; duo. So while he&#8217;s probably a small upgrade on Solarte and Travis, Drury&#8217;s skills already existed on the roster.</p>
<p>The prospect in the deal is perhaps even more surprising. Despite the Yankees having a very large stable of pitching prospects in their farm system, the Blue Jays ended acquiring outfielder Billy McKinney, who came to the Yankees with Gleyber Torres in the Aroldis Chapman trade of 2016. This is now the third time the 23-year-old has been traded.</p>
<p>McKinney was actually formerly a top 100 prospect according to Baseball America (pre-2015), Baseball Prospectus (pre-2015 and 2016) and MLB Pipeline (pre-2016), but has seen his star fade a bit of late. Following a .300/.371/.454 line in 2015, the left-handed hitting/throwing outfielder has had trouble staying on the field, hurting his development. He is currently hitting .230/.294/.502 with 13 home runs in 228 PA for triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.</p>
<p>McKinney currently ranks 20th in a pretty deep Yankees&#8217; farm system, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=nyy" target="_blank">per MLB Pipeline</a>, with scouting grades of 45 hit, 50 power, 50 run, 45 arm, 50 field for an overall grade of 45 (or 4th outfielder). The following is the MLB Pipeline scouting report:</p>
<p><em>McKinney&#8217;s best attributes are his smooth left-handed swing, bat speed and hand-eye coordination. He demonstrated a disciplined approach at lower levels of the Minors but has become more aggressive and now emphasizes power over hitting for average. Scouts who believe his late-season surge in 2017 is for real see his upside as a .280 hitter with 20 homers per year, though he attained that average just once while topping out at 16 homers in his first four full seasons.</em></p>
<p>McKinney broke into pro ball as a center fielder and has spent most of the last three years as a right fielder. He&#8217;s just a decent athlete with average speed and fringy arm strength, so he&#8217;s best suited for left field. Because they&#8217;re loaded with outfield depth, the Yankees had him play first base in the Arizona Fall League to enhance his versatility.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s what Kiley McDaniel from Fangraphs, who was a bit more bullish on the young outfielder, had to say about McKinney:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New Blue Jays LF Billy McKinney (for JA Happ) is LF fit, fringy runner w/below arm, but above avg raw power &amp; flashes of 55 hit/power tools, looking more like power over hit w/in-game lift trending up. Ben Gamel type w/less exciting hair, still 40+ FV, MLB-ready, 50 FV ceiling.</p>
<p>&mdash; Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) <a href="https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/1022554751672541184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 26, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>McKinney broke into pro ball as a center fielder and has spent most of the last three years as a right fielder. He&#8217;s just a decent athlete with average speed and fringy arm strength, so he&#8217;s best suited for left field. Because they&#8217;re loaded with outfield depth, the Yankees had him play first base in the Arizona Fall League to enhance his versatility.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s certainly a useful player, though like Drury, it&#8217;s very much something they already possess in the upper minors or big leagues with Anthony Alford, Jonathan Davis, Dalton Pompey, Dwight Smith Jr., and Teoscar Hernández. That said, prospect depth is never something to be upset about and we&#8217;ve seen some of those guys have trouble staying healthy or have underperformed.</p>
<p>Overall, this is a strange trade to analyze in a vacuum. Based on pure value the Jays did alright getting a controllable, average MLB regular-type and another big league-ready prospect for a non-ace rental starter. However, the roster fit is confusing and it makes one wonder a bit why the Jays took this offer over one with more upside when they apparently were engaged with a bunch of other teams before accepting the Yankees proposal.</p>
<p>Thankfully, we don&#8217;t need to look at this in a vacuum. If the Jays trade  one of their other infielders (Milwaukee and Philadelphia could both use upgrades on the dirt), Drury can slot in nicely in the short term and then be re-evaluated in the offseason with to see if he&#8217;s a piece for the future or someone to be flipped elsewhere. So while it&#8217;s a bit strange on the surface, we&#8217;ll just have to wait and see on this one. If they keep everybody, it&#8217;s a weird and somewhat underwhelming one.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Danger in Hunting for Market Inefficiencies</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/19/the-danger-in-hunting-for-market-inefficiencies/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/19/the-danger-in-hunting-for-market-inefficiencies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jul 2018 10:20:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16364</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This past spring, I wrote a piece for this site hypothesizing that the Blue Jays had decided on a new way of targeting pitchers, something I termed as a potential market inefficiency: choosing to go after pitchers with outlier movement on their fastballs. At the midway point of the 2018 season, it’s clear things haven’t [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This past spring, <a title="Pulling a Fast One: Have the Blue Jays Found a New Market Inefficiency?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/" target="_blank">I wrote a piece for this site</a> hypothesizing that the Blue Jays had decided on a new way of targeting pitchers, something I termed as a potential market inefficiency: choosing to go after pitchers with outlier movement on their fastballs.</p>
<p>At the midway point of the 2018 season, it’s clear things haven’t worked out so well. While some of those arms &#8212; namely Tyler Clippard, Seunghwan Oh, and J.A. Happ &#8212; have had solid years so far, the general underperformance of Blue Jays pitchers has played a major role in the team&#8217;s overall struggles this season.</p>
<p>Recently, former BP Toronto writer, Dr. Mike Sonne, <a href="https://theathletic.com/425705/2018/07/10/sonne-blue-jays-are-reversing-a-league-wide-trend-by-not-pitching-in-reverse/" target="_blank">wrote a piece for the Athletic ($)</a> in which he explained that the Blue Jays are ignoring a league-wide trend of throwing more breaking balls, especially in hitter&#8217;s counts, and that they are paying a price for it. This led me to the premise of <em>this</em> piece: the dangers of hunting for market inefficiencies.</p>
<p>Mike was a guest on <a title="ATW Episode 109: The Right STUFF" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/atw-episode-109-the-right-stuff/" target="_blank">our most recent podcast episode</a>, and we discussed the general concept of inefficiencies. Here&#8217;s what he had to say:</p>
<p><em>“When you look for market inefficiencies, you’re essentially trying to find something that other people aren’t paying for. Whether it’s discount shopping or being smart with your money or whatever you want to call it, there’s a reason why it’s an inefficiency. You’re trying to find a surrogate for some other form of success.”</em></p>
<p>Mike had a good point. The Blue Jays didn’t target players with nasty, bat-missing stuff, as those types of pitchers tend to cost a lot to acquire. The club instead chose to target players whose pitching style could lead to poor contact. Given the league-wide trend of paying for strikeouts, going in the opposite direction seemed to be a good place to hunt for value in a vacuum.</p>
<p>That vacuum is one where fastball movement is constant, unchanging from year to year. Unfortunately, the real world isn&#8217;t so predictable. This is where things went off the rails for the 2018 Blue Jays.</p>
<p>For a quick recap of the original piece, here are the ways in which Blue Jays starters were showing outlier movement:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/outliers.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16365" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/outliers.jpg" alt="outliers" width="581" height="129" /></a></p>
<p>Of those five pitchers, it’s safe to say that only J.A. Happ has lived up to expectations at all. Sanchez has been mediocre even when healthy, and Stroman, Estrada, and Garcia have struggled to perform. I’m going to look at each pitcher to see what did or did not happen with respect to what made them look interesting coming into the year.</p>
<h4>J.A. Happ</h4>
<p>Let’s get the good out of the way early. As <a title="How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball’s Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">I’ve written about</a> on this site <a title="How Pitchers Should Mix the Sinker and the Fastball to Be Successful" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/13/how-pitchers-should-mix-the-sinker-and-the-fastball-to-be-successful/" target="_blank">a couple of times</a>, J.A. Happ gets more vertical break between his fourseamer and twoseamer than any qualified pitcher in baseball. Last year that break difference was 4.9”; in 2016, it was 5.01”. This year, those pitches have a vertical break difference of 5.18”. Nothing has changed, and a recent rough spell notwithstanding, Happ has been exactly as advertised this year.</p>
<h4>Aaron Sanchez</h4>
<p>Aaron Sanchez hasn’t been on the field all that much this year, though he has still thrown over twice as many innings as he did last year. Even when healthy, though, his overall numbers are definitely down from his elite 2016 that saw him lead the AL in ERA. There are two reasons for this. First and foremost, Sanchez has simply struggled to find his command, going from an 8.0% walk rate in 2016 to 12.6% this year. That would be Sanchez’ highest walk rate of his short major league career, eclipsing last year’s career-worst 12.0%.</p>
<p>That’s obviously a huge problem, but Sanchez has also lost some of what made him so tough to read in the first place. A drop in his twoseam fastball velocity &#8212; from an average of 95.1 mph to 94.4 mph &#8212; has been accompanied by a slight increase in break (9.38” to 9.66”), but makes the pitch less of an outlier. Last year, the only qualified righty who threw as hard as Sanchez with as much horizontal run was Alex Meyer. If you added unqualified starters, Luis Castillo of the Reds was also on the list. This year, the list has expanded to contain Castillo, Domingo German, Yonny Chirinos, Charlie Morton, and Kendall Graveman. Sanchez has also seen a small dip in the overall break difference between his two fastballs, from 3.6” to 3.3.”</p>
<p>All that being said, the twoseam fastball still leans towards the outlier area of things. The overall difference isn’t that drastic, and thanks to a greatly improved changeup, Sanchez is actually posting the best strikeout rate of his career. If he can just normalize the walk rate, he should be fine.</p>
<p>Now that we’ve gotten those two guys out of the way, it’s time to look at the examples of the true danger of what the Jays have been trying to do.</p>
<h4>Marco Estrada</h4>
<p>Estrada is a simple case. He throws “rising” fastballs and changeups to get you out, with with a 12-6 curveball to give a different look. He has been doing this for years, and isn’t about to alter that strategy anytime soon. While the changeup is elite, the fastball is what makes Estrada stand out from the rest of the league. However, in the early part of this season, that high-rise heater has lost some of its steam.</p>
<p>From the start of the year until May 31, Estrada’s fastball was fighting gravity to an average of 12.22&#8243; &#8212; a notable difference from the vertical movement numbers he posted over the last two seasons. His ERA during that timeframe was 5.68. He did seem to make some sort of adjustment starting in June, though: In the five pre-injury starts since the start of that month (eliminating his one inning outing vs the Mets), Estrada averaged 12.6” of rise, eclipsing 13” twice, and posted an ERA of 2.35.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16367" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (12)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Interestingly, Estrada’s overall &#8220;rise&#8221; of 12.34&#8243; on the season (and the 12.22&#8243; early on) is still number one in baseball, and very close to his 2015 numbers. The league-wide pitching environment in 2015, though, was a place where sinkerballers were still in vogue. As such, the 3/4&#8243; drop in &#8220;rise,&#8221; while still making the pitch an outlier, is approaching what hitters have been getting used to over the last couple of years with the recent trend of throwing high fourseam fastballs.</p>
<p>Estrada&#8217;s fourseamer just hasn&#8217;t been looking quite as different as it used to. As a result, a few more of those would-be popups have gone for home runs. If he can continue the gains he has shown of late when he returns from the DL, Estrada could rebound nicely and be a good trade candidate for some team needing back of the rotation help.</p>
<h4>Marcus Stroman</h4>
<p>Stroman, like Estrada, has a pretty clear change in his movement profile. Where he once possessed an unparalleled triangular break difference between his three fastballs (cut, fourseam, sinker), that special pitch mix is gone. In 2016, those three offerings covered an overall area of 21.2”. With a velocity difference between all three pitches of under three miles per hour, Stroman saw real success when using all three fastballs in the second half of that season. Last year, the overall area covered by his three fastballs dropped down to the still elite 19.3”. This year, that number has fallen all the way down to 15.3”, thanks in large part to a cutter that is staying up more and cutting slightly less. That reduction in break difference has turned Stroman from a true outlier into someone sitting near the middle of the pack.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/Brooksbaseball-Chart-40.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16366" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/Brooksbaseball-Chart-40-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (40)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>All of this is compounded by an over-reliance on the sinker that can at times make Stroman predictable. With his groundball tendencies and the Blue Jays’ shaky infield defense, that can lead to a lot of runs. Stroman still has the stuff to get outs, but he needs to use his whole arsenal more with his fastball advantage disappearing.</p>
<h4>Jaime Garcia</h4>
<p>The good news is that Garcia still has an outlier break difference between his fastballs. In fact, it has gotten bigger. He has increased the vertical difference from 3.26” to 3.98” while increasing the horizontal difference from 5.52” to 6.24”, and his twoseamer now has the third-most sink among lefties, trailing only Clayton Richard and Chris Sale. Hitters have also missed on 18.06 percent of swings against the twoseamer, the second-highest rate of Garcia’s career.</p>
<p>The bad news: Garcia has lost 1.5 mph on his average velocity, and the extra time hitters have to adjust has led to more takes on borderline pitches. So while hitters are missing the twoseamer more often than usual when they swing at it, the pitch has an overall whiff rate of 7.6%, which is over two percentage points lower than last year. Hitters just aren’t chasing enough. In fact, Garcia’s overall chase rate is at an all-time low, with hitters swinging at just 21.9% of pitches out of the zone. He entered the season with a career rate of 30.2% and a previous career low of 26.6%.</p>
<p>The lack of velocity also affects the type of contact we see in the zone. The increased break difference is great, but if hitters have extra time to recognize the difference in the offerings, they can square up the one that moves less. In this case, that would be the fourseamer, against which hitters are slugging a whopping .767 this year.</p>
<p>Those struggles, in combination with overall poor command and a plethora of uncompetitive pitches, have seen Garcia post career-worsts in the following categories:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/garcia.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16368" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/07/garcia.png" alt="garcia" width="405" height="109" /></a></p>
<p>Yikes. Some of this may be due to Garcia&#8217;s shoulder problems, and we could potentially see a rebound in the second half. But shoulder issues are nothing new for the lefty, so it&#8217;s hard to just dismiss them.</p>
<hr />
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The up-and-down nature of the Jays&#8217; rotation this season is exactly why targeting this specific market inefficiency was actually a very high-risk, high-reward proposition. The possible rewards were easy to see. If these pitchers maintained their stuff and control/command, what seemed like potentially fluky performance could have proved to be anything but.</p>
<p>Relying on a pitcher to maintain his movement and control year over year, especially as he ages, is a tough gamble. And the risk of this gamble was compounded by the Blue Jays’ specific targets: pitchers who, for the most part, rely heavily on their fastballs and that movement to get outs. That was the inefficiency that existed in the first place.</p>
<p>But when that fastball movement is not backed up by something else that can help the pitcher get outs, whether it be elite breaking balls or velocity, you find yourself in a situation where any kind of downturn in the heater will hurt. That&#8217;s what led to the problems Mike discussed in his piece for the Athletic: The Jays are throwing more fastballs because they don&#8217;t really have another choice.</p>
<p>Does that mean the team should abandon the approach entirely? No. When it works, as we&#8217;ve seen with Happ and for 2.5 seasons with Estrada, this method can lead to unbelievable value.</p>
<p>In general, the right play is still to try and find advantages wherever you can. That&#8217;s the easiest way to get ahead if you&#8217;re limited financially, either from a cheap owner or the presence of bad contracts. You just need to be fully aware of the drawbacks of whatever strategy you choose. Because the more you put it into practice, the more likely it is that one or more players won&#8217;t do what you&#8217;re expecting.</p>
<p>It certainly hasn&#8217;t worked out so far for the Blue Jays in 2018.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/19/the-danger-in-hunting-for-market-inefficiencies/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How New Repertoires Have Led to Success for the Blue Jays Veteran Relievers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/16/how-experience-leads-to-success-for-the-blue-jays-veteran-relievers/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/16/how-experience-leads-to-success-for-the-blue-jays-veteran-relievers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2018 10:46:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15885</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays entered play Tuesday night with a record of 21-20, sitting over .500 largely due to the incredible performance of their bullpen. The unit as a whole has a 2.78 ERA, which ranks first in the American League. Leading that relief corps are three veteran relief pitchers: Seung-hwan Oh, John Axford, and Tyler Clippard. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays entered play Tuesday night with a record of 21-20, sitting over .500 largely due to the incredible performance of their bullpen. The unit as a whole has a 2.78 ERA, which ranks first in the American League. Leading that relief corps are three veteran relief pitchers: Seung-hwan Oh, John Axford, and Tyler Clippard. These three have combined to allow a mere nine earned runs across 61 1/3 innings, good for an ERA of 1.32.</p>
<p>If anybody were to tell you they expected this level of performance from Oh, Axford and Clippard, they’d either have to be related to one of those pitchers or delusional. These were all pitchers on the wrong side of 30, coming off career-worst seasons. But while we often discount the value of “<a href="https://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2455305/bol-vetpresents.JPG?_ga=2.249592514.553014162.1526440827-2030670373.1525116141">veteran presence</a>,” the experience and understanding of their stuff that these three have gained over the course of their long careers has given them the ability to adjust the way they attack hitters and bounce back from their struggles. And they&#8217;ve all done it in different ways, which is what makes this so fascinating.</p>
<h3>JOHN AXFORD</h3>
<p>It’s interesting to start with Axford, as unlike the other two pitchers on this list, the 6’6” Canadian has seen no significant dip in velocity over the last few years. In fact, his cutter has seen a significant <em><i>increase</i></em> in velocity, going from an average of 89.8 mph in 2015 to 92+ each of the last three years (93.0 this year).</p>
<p>However, this is where the ability to understand one’s repertoire really comes into focus. If you take a look at Axford’s fastball usage, you’ll see something rather obvious:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-45.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15886" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-45-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (45)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Starting in 2016, Axford started throwing a sinker. Considering all the success he’d had in the past, I was very curious why he made the switch. Here&#8217;s what Axford had to say when I asked him in spring training:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;The slider/cutter thing that I&#8217;m throwing now seemed to have a little tighter and harder action… So that action just needed a little bit more play of something going the other way. I noticed that some guys seemed to be on that fourseamer a little bit more and staying off the curveballs when I was dropping them behind the plate, recoginizing it if was going to be in the zone. So I thought of utilizing something else, like a twoseamer, to play with and it worked in &#8217;16.&#8221; </em></p>
<p>As you can see below, the slider clearly morphed into the power cutter over the past few years (vertical movement on the left, velocity on the right):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-46.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15887" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-46.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (46)" width="750" height="251" /></a></p>
<p>When introducing the sinker to offset the glove-side movement of his cutter, Axford saw immediate results:</p>
<p><em>“I think I want to say that the first or second time I ended up doing it, in &#8217;16, I think I threw two innings in Houston and think I struck out five guys. So I was like, ‘I&#8217;ll deal with this. I think I can keep doing this for a while.’”</em></p>
<p>That was the start of Axford&#8217;s transition into a partial sinkerballer. And despite a small mid-summer blip, he had a very solid year for the Oakland A’s.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I threw two innings in Houston and think I struck out five guys. So I was like, ‘I&#8217;ll deal with this. I think I can keep doing this for a while.’”</p></blockquote>
<p>So what happened  in 2017, when things got so bad that Axford nearly walked away from the game? The tall righty was initially hesitant to even think about what led to such an awful time: “Last year, I can&#8217;t account for really for anything. Because nothing really went well.” But when he considered the idea further, he realized that he allowed bad luck to influence his pitching style.</p>
<p>In his final apperance in May last season, Brett Gardner hit a two-run double that drove Axford’s ERA up to 8.31 after four appearances. Axford felt that he needed to make adjustments, so he altered his approach again. Take a closer look at that sinker usage chart, broken down by month:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-401.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15888" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-401-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (40)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>After the initial success in 2016 and <em><i>heavy</i></em> usage in May of 2017 (ignore the March data, as that is from a spring training game), Axford reverted to throwing more fourseamers. He then posted an ERA of 5.94 the rest of the way. Now look at the box score line for that Gardner double:</p>
<p><strong><b>Double to LF (Fly Ball to Deep 3B); Gregorius Scores; Carter Scores</b></strong></p>
<p>Yes, you read that correctly: a double to left field on a fly ball to deep third base. Gardner just threw his bat at the ball and hit a bloop, two-run double. But this is where the mental side of the game comes into play. Axford was thinking results were the issue, even though his process was good. So he tried to change things too much and, by his own admission, let things snowball.</p>
<p>Thankfully, Axford realized what had happened. He was able to take stock of his lost season and his mental approach to the game. And that&#8217;s why he entered the spring ready to do what his experience and understanding of his stuff told him to do. He&#8217;s aware that his sinker/cutter combo at his velocity makes him very hard to hit, even if sometimes the baseball gods aren&#8217;t smiling down upon him. That&#8217;s why he entered this spring with the sinker as &#8220;something [he was] going to be working on again this year.”</p>
<p>So now you know why you see John Axford throwing nearly 75 percent sinkers, and why he is one of only two relievers on this team who generates groundballs over 50 percent of the time (Jake Petricka is the other). He understands what makes pitching easier and what makes hitting tough.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s definitely working.</p>
<h3>SEUNG-HWAN OH</h3>
<p>The “Final Boss” went from one of baseball’s very best relievers in 2016 to one that lost his job in 2017 and failed a physical in early 2018.</p>
<p>When this season started, things looked even worse. Oh’s fastball velocity had dropped over two miles per hour, and he was habitually escaping innings by the skin of his teeth. In short, he looked like he might be done. 18 2/3 innings later, Oh has 20 strikeouts, just three walks, a career-best infield-fly rate (12 percent), and looks every bit like the star he was in his debut in St Louis.</p>
<p>So what is Oh doing? Like Axford, Oh has changed his pitch usage to suit his new stuff.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-48.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15889" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-48-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (48)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Oh is throwing his fastball considerably less often than he has in the past (from over 60 percent in 2016-17 to 47 percent so far this year). This could’ve been a problem if the Korean hurler was having the same problems with his changeup that led lefties to torch him in 2017, but that’s no longer the case:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-43.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15890" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-43-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (43)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>With the changeup now reverting to its diving form, Oh is now not only able to get lefties out, but possesses two offspeed pitchers &#8212; the changeup and a slider &#8212; that he can throw to the bottom of the zone. This helps the fourseam fastball play up, even with its reduced velocity, as long as it is used properly.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Oh-fast-2016-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15891" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Oh-fast-2016-2017.png" alt="Oh fast 2016-2017" width="750" height="375" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see above, Oh is now attacking up and to the arm side with his fastball, counteracting the glove slide movement of his slider and the downward action of his changeup. When combined with the drop in fastball usage forcing hitters to wait back for a non-fastball, this is leading to a lot of swinging strikes and lazy popups on 91-92 mph fastballs.</p>
<h3>TYLER CLIPPARD</h3>
<p>Like the two relievers above, Clippard was coming off a disastrous season before turning things around in the early goings of 2018. And like the two relievers above, Clippard has altered his pitch mix to increase his chances of success.</p>
<p>I wrote about <a title="Tyler Clippard is Getting Back to Basics" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/16/tyler-clippard-is-getting-back-to-the-basics/" target="_blank">what Clippard was hoping to fix things back in spring training</a>, and if you’re curious what he’s doing and why it works so well, you should check that out. If you’re too busy though, here’s the choice quote:</p>
<p><em><i>“I need to get back to throwing more fastballs.”</i></em></p>
<p>It doesn’t get much simpler than that &#8212; Clippard himself called it “pitching 101.” But it eluded him in 2016, when, for the first time in his career, his splitter/changeup rate had eclipsed his fastball rate. Not the case this year:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-44.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15893" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-44-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (44)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>In short: Clippard is doing just what he said he was going to do.</p>
<p>With the return to around 45 percent of his pitches being his high-rise fastballs, Clippard is once again throwing them just as often as his combined usage of the splitter/change. This keeps hitters from sitting on any one speed, which is helping both pitches play up.</p>
<p>Will these three pitchers continue to post ERAs in the low 1.00s? Almost certainly not. That’s hard to predict for anybody. But the adjustments made to improve their ability to get outs despite changes to their stuff suggest that as long as the workload from the lousy starting pitching doesn’t kill them first, top-level performance could still be the norm for the veterans in this Blue Jays bullpen.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/16/how-experience-leads-to-success-for-the-blue-jays-veteran-relievers/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Rangers Are Taking the Analytics Game to a New, Scary Level</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/03/the-rangers-are-taking-the-analytics-game-to-a-new-scary-level/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/03/the-rangers-are-taking-the-analytics-game-to-a-new-scary-level/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2018 18:27:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15773</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Earlier this afternoon, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News sent out the following tweet containing a Texas Rangers press release: NOW, this is way cool from #TexasRangers for y&#39;all who want to go into baseball pic.twitter.com/53G244Pgnt &#8212; Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) May 3, 2018 On the surface, this looks like a great new initiative to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Earlier this afternoon, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News sent out the following tweet containing a Texas Rangers press release:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NOW, this is way cool from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TexasRangers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TexasRangers</a> for y&#39;all who want to go into baseball <a href="https://t.co/53G244Pgnt">pic.twitter.com/53G244Pgnt</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) <a href="https://twitter.com/Evan_P_Grant/status/992095928692523008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 3, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>On the surface, this looks like a great new initiative to help get young people interested in analytics and to, potentially, help those who are less financially advantaged from getting an early foothold into the baseball world and to ease their ability to complete a post-secondary education. Some student will have their life dramatically changed for the better. For that, the Rangers absolutely deserve to be praised.</p>
<p>But there is a lot more going on here than a simple minor scholarship. Take a closer look at that press release to see what the Rangers are asking for in the application. In order to be eligible for the $5000, one-time scholarship, people must submit &#8220;original formulas or statistics to provide previously immeasurable projections, indicators of future success, measurements of risk, or player valuation.&#8221;</p>
<p>To sum that up, they are asking non-employees to submit a brand new way of evaluating talent to a major league baseball front office for a <em>potential</em> reward of $5000. And that money is only going to <em>one</em> person. They could be getting hundreds, even thousands of submissions. Even if only a few dozen of them contain useful statistics, that&#8217;s a huge boost to the Rangers&#8217; baseball operations. For $5000 total.</p>
<p>In short the Texas Rangers have just crowd-sourced the research and development section of their analytics department.</p>
<p>It was only a matter of time before this happened, of course. Baseball research took massive leaps forward when the PITCHF/x data was accidentally released to the public. In fact, many front offices today are made up of people who took publicly available information and used it to develop new and interesting ways to analyze the game. Dave Cameron, the patron-saint of Fangraphs, is now in a key development position in San Diego. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus is running pro scouting for the defending World Series Champion Astros. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2010/03/20/sabermetrics_stats_guru_advising_blue_jays.html" target="_blank">Tom Tango was hired by our Toronto Blue Jays</a>. The list goes on and on and on.</p>
<p>With the recent release of Statcast data and the constantly updating nature of that resource, there is room for a brand new boom in baseball analytics from the public sector. The Rangers have just taken things to the next level.</p>
<p>Instead of bringing a brilliant mind from the public sphere into their front office, they are getting people to give their best work for free, privately, all for the chance of a one-time reward. Texas can then do this again next year, the year after that, and so on for a tiny fraction of the cost of paying a full-time employee to develop statistics, a position that typically demands high level education. That allows the team to then reallocate those funds to other areas of their business.</p>
<p>At this point I should clarify that I&#8217;m not actually trying to assume that this nefarious aim is why the Rangers decided to launch this seemingly benevolent venture. It very well could be simply based on helping out youth and gaining potential insight into future employees. But the value is there and if the Rangers aren&#8217;t using this program as a means to gain a competitive advantage, someone else will. Baseball is a game of copy and paste, after all. When &#8220;Moneyball&#8221; launched, many teams started copying the on-base formula. The next thing was shifting, then framing, then bullpen-ing. The next step could now be crowd-sourcing. And that&#8217;s a problem.</p>
<p>Once all teams are doing this, the supply of baseball jobs will go down even further, driving the salaries down and qualifications up for entry level analytics positions. That will actually then have the <em>opposite</em> effect of making working in baseball more inclusive. It will instead drive it even further into the realm of the privileged, watering down ideas as more people start coming from identical backgrounds. That&#8217;s a very bad thing.</p>
<p>Am I playing this up as a doom and gloom scenario? A bit, maybe. But baseball has a history of choosing to save money over paying people (see: minor leaguers) when they get the opportunity to save a few bucks. This is a scary development, and I don&#8217;t like what it could mean for the game of baseball.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/03/the-rangers-are-taking-the-analytics-game-to-a-new-scary-level/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The New Teoscar Hernández May be Here to Stay</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/02/the-new-teoscar-hernandez-may-be-here-to-stay/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/02/the-new-teoscar-hernandez-may-be-here-to-stay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2018 10:36:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At this point, there are no Blue Jays fans who are unfamiliar with Teoscar Hernández. The 25-year-old outfielder burst onto the scene with eight home runs last September, and has done nothing but hit in the early going in 2018. As such, the conversation has shifted from “how long will Hernández stay with the big [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point, there are no Blue Jays fans who are unfamiliar with Teoscar Hernández. The 25-year-old outfielder burst onto the scene with eight home runs last September, and has done nothing but hit in the early going in 2018. As such, the conversation has shifted from “how long will Hernández stay with the big club?” to “how real is this performance?”</p>
<p>It’s a reasonable question to ask. Entering play on Tuesday night, the Blue Jays’ two-hole hitter had put up a line of .305/.377/.677, each of those numbers dwarfing even the most optimistic pre-season projections.</p>
<p>So what’s real, the projections or what we’re seeing? The easy answer would be to say “both,” with an expectation for minor regression, but still worthy of starting. But when you look dig a little bit deeper, there are a few signs that Teoscar Hernández has made the necessary adjustments to be an impact bat in the big leagues.</p>
<p>The most talked-about change with today’s modern data usage is how hard Hernández is hitting the ball. <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank">He leads all of baseball in barrels/PA</a> (17.4 percent) and barrels per batted ball event (25.5 percent). But he’s doing damage on the other 75 percent of his batted balls as well. His average exit velocity is up substantially. After averaging 87 mph last year, he is up to 95.7 mph this year, which is in the top five in all of baseball among hitters with at least 25 batted balls. In addition, Hernández entered Tuesday’s game with a 0 percent soft contact rate.</p>
<p>Hernández is hitting the ball so hard so often, he should actually have <em><i>better</i></em> numbers than he has put up to this point. His xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average based on contact) is .519, ahead of his already otherworldly .431. So he has been extremely good and somehow, even a little unlucky.</p>
<p>The next thing that stands out is the reduction in strikeout rate. Even during last year’s magical September, Hernández whiffed a whopping 37.9 percent of the time. That was a bit higher than his minor league numbers (he averaged around 24 percent during his eight years in the minors), but it was an obvious flaw in his otherwise exciting game. This year, that number is all the way down to 21.1%. Coupled with that decrease in strikeouts has been an increase in walks from 8.7 percent in his previous minor and major league career to 10.1 percent this year.</p>
<p>Typically, one would think that such changes would be the result of improved taking more pitches, but the case is actually a little bit different for the young outfielder. In fact, he is swinging just as often (50.9 percent of the time in 2018 vs 50.8 percent in 2017) and chasing more (30 percent up from 26.3 percent). He is also swinging at the first pitch 40.6 percent of the time (up from 28.4 percent in 2017), so he’s clearly still being very aggressive. And while he’s hitting the ball a bit more, his 67.8 percent contact rate is still among the worst in baseball.</p>
<p>So what’s the difference? Well, there are two. First: Hernández has stopped fouling off hittable pitches.</p>
<p>Last year, Hernández fouled the ball off on 40.4 percent of his swings. When combined with the low contact rate, that meant just 24.3 percent of his swings ended with a ball in play. This year, Hernández is putting the ball in play on 35.7 percent of his swings. That alone would do wonders for reducing a strikeout rate.</p>
<p>Of course, not all foul balls are bad. If there are fewer than two strikes, you&#8217;d usually rather see a hitter foul off a tough pitch off the plate than put it in play softly. However, Hernández was not only fouling off more fastballs (40 percent vs 34.2 percent this year), he was failing to punish pitchers for hanging breaking balls as well. This year, on breaking balls over the middle third of the plate, he has reduced his foul ball rate from 45 percent all the way down to 33 percent. As a result, he now has an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph and a .500 slugging percentage on all breaking balls after slugging .148 with an average exit velocity of 83.3 mph in his limited action last year.</p>
<p>This increased rate of balls in play leads nicely into the second difference: Teoscar Hernández is absolutely murdering fastballs. On plate appearances ending with fastballs, Hernández is hitting .316/.395/.763, with just a 14 percent strikeout rate. He has also upped his contact rate on heaters from 69.2 percent in 2017 to 78.1 percent in 2018. Coupled with the reduction in foul balls, Hernández is now putting the fastball in play 43.8 percent of the time. When combined with the extreme batted ball data referenced above, you end up with video game numbers.</p>
<p>All of this could be considered sample size silliness on its own, but there seems to be a swing change element that has led to this improvement. Last year, Hernández had an average launch angle of 19.9 degrees. This year, that number is down to 14.3 degrees. That slightly more level swing may lead to fewer home runs &#8212; and Hernández’ home run rate is actually down &#8212; but it should also lead to fewer balls fouled back caused by swinging under the ball. This shows up in the Statcast numbers, as Hernández has dropped his rate of swinging under the ball from 30.2 percent in 2017 all the way down to 12.8 percent in 2018.</p>
<p>With all of this increased success, pitchers have understandably started throwing Hernández a lot more junk to try and fool him:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-40.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15729" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-40-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (40)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>More specifically, they are throwing breaking balls off the plate in an attempt to make Hernández get himself out:</p>
<p style="text-align: center">vs RHP (2017 left, 2018 right):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/rhp-break-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15740" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/rhp-break-2017.png" alt="rhp break 2017" width="700" height="350" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center">Vs LHP (2017 left, 2018 right):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/lhp-break-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15741" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/lhp-break-2017.png" alt="lhp break 2017" width="700" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>That was always an obvious step with his success against the heater. But while Hernández’ overall chase rate is up over 30 percent, that’s mostly against fastballs where he is the most aggressive and for good reason. He has actually shown a solid ability to lay off breaking balls out of the strike zone, swinging at only 26.6 percent of them. For reference, the average major leaguer chases breaking balls 5.7 percentage points more often than they do fastballs (28.7 percent vs 23 percent). So not only is the free-swinging Teoscar unusually less likely to chase a breaking ball than a fastball, he is also less likely to chase one overall than the league average hitter.</p>
<p>As a result, one of three things ends up happening when pitchers try to get Hernández to chase breaking balls: They either fail and end up walking Hernández (hence the increased walk rate with no change in swing rate), they get themselves into fastball counts where they are getting hurt, or they miss over the plate and Hernández crushes them anyway.</p>
<p>With the change in launch angle, the increased exit velocity, the increased rate of balls in play, and the increased walk rate that matches up with patience against breaking balls, the signs are actually really good that this is a newer, better Teoscar Hernández that we’re seeing, not an early-season fluke. So while these numbers likely have to come down a <em>bit, </em>Hernández should continue to be a very good, regular contributor for the 2018 Blue Jays and beyond.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports<br />
</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/02/the-new-teoscar-hernandez-may-be-here-to-stay/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Tyler Clippard is Getting Back to Basics</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/16/tyler-clippard-is-getting-back-to-the-basics/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/16/tyler-clippard-is-getting-back-to-the-basics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Mar 2018 10:30:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15394</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[DUNEDIN, FL &#8211; If you only watched Tyler Clippard pitch for playoff teams last year, you might not have been too impressed when the Blue Jays inked the 33-year-old righty to a minor league deal a couple of weeks ago. He&#8217;s coming off a season where he posted his worst ERA (4.77), walk rate (11.7 percent), and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DUNEDIN, FL &#8211; If you only watched Tyler Clippard pitch for playoff teams last year, you might not have been too impressed when the Blue Jays inked the 33-year-old righty to a minor league deal a couple of weeks ago. He&#8217;s coming off a season where he posted his worst ERA (4.77), walk rate (11.7 percent), and home run rate (1.5/9 innings) of any full season at the big league level, and while he had a brief run of midseason success after being traded by the Yankees to the White Sox, his August and September with the Astros went so poorly that he was left off their postseason roster. But Clippard was one of baseball’s best relievers from 2010-2015 and was still very useful in 2016, leaving one in search of possible causes for his struggles last season.</p>
<p>The first thing many people would point to as a reason for Clippard’s 2017 decline was the one that is most often tied to pitcher success: fastball velocity.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-38.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15395" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-38-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (38)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>That graph looks a little bit worse than it is, with a total velocity band of less than 2.5 mph, but the drop over the last two years is pretty clear. While Clippard&#8217;s fastball was mostly in the 92.5 mph range from 2013-2015, it averaged only 91.2 mph last year.</p>
<p>When it comes to relievers, that’s usually all you need to know to figure out why they struggled. But when you look at Clippard’s underlying performance, his strikeout rate in 2017 was actually slightly <em><i>higher</i></em> than his career levels. So he clearly still has the stuff to miss bats. The home run rate can be explained away somewhat by an increase in his HR/FB rate (12.5 percent the last two years with a career average of 9 percent), but he is still giving up more of them and walking more hitters than usual.</p>
<p>There must have been something else going on:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-39.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-15396" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Brooksbaseball-Chart-39-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (39)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>One thing that sticks out that is that Clippard has been throwing the splitter more over the last couple of years, which is uncommon for a pitcher who also throws a changeup. Here’s Clippard&#8217;s take on why he throws both:</p>
<p><em>“If you&#8217;re a hitter and you go up there and [a pitcher] has a changeup and a split, how different are those pitches? It can be difficult to decipher between the straight change &#8211; it&#8217;s going to stay in the zone &#8211; and next thing you know it drops out of the zone like a split…they play off each other nicely. But it goes back to having a good fourseamer.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Ah, yes. The fourseam fastball. Let’s look at that last graph a different way:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/clip-slipfast.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15397" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/clip-slipfast.png" alt="clip slipfast" width="488" height="295" /></a></p>
<p>Last year Clippard threw more changeups and splitters than fastballs by a wide margin, whereas the relative rates have been almost equal the last few years. Interestingly, Clippard describes this as “something that just happened,” as opposed to an intentional switch. When a pitcher makes this kind of change to their repertoire, there’s typically some intent behind it. In Clippard&#8217;s case, though, it seems like it just ended up that way either thanks to his own subconscious or the plans of the various catchers he threw to last year.</p>
<p>Regardless of how or why this change occured, Clippard knows that it&#8217;s not the way for him to succeed:</p>
<p><em>“It was pointed out to me&#8230;as a player you have to look at the good and the bad and kind of assess and that was part of the assessment of my season last year that I found. </em></p>
<p><em>“I need to get back to throwing more fastballs. It&#8217;s something I realized and something I&#8217;m trying to get back to because when I had the success that I&#8217;ve had throughout my career I was throwing over 55% fastballs. And last year I don&#8217;t think it was there.”</em></p>
<p>He hasn’t actually been quite at 55 percent the last few years, but Clippard was definitely throwing a lot more fastballs in the past. So why does this matter? As a guy who is only throwing 91.5 mph, using more offspeed pitches can be a good thing, but not when your primary offspeed pitch is a changeup/split. Those pitches rely on a hitter thinking a fastball is coming in order to be successful.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;It&#8217;s kind of pitching 101. It&#8217;s not rocket science, it&#8217;s just getting back to basics.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Clippard agreed with that assessment, calling it “100 percent right,” and the numbers would agree as well. Last year, batters chased fewer of Clippard&#8217;s changeups (29 percent vs 32.3 percent for his career) and made more contact against them than ever (75.7 percent vs 69.5 percent career). What might be even more important is that hitters also made considerably more contact when they <em><i>did</i></em> chase (68.5 percent vs 61.2 percent career). That suggests that hitters were not nearly as fooled by the speed of the pitches, even if they were fooled by location and movement.</p>
<p>However, increased fastball usage isn’t just about speed deception. It’s also about consistency and being able to throw strikes, things which eluded Clippard last year:</p>
<p><em>“As pitchers in general, your fastball is your no. 1 pitch. At least it should be unless you have an awesome cutter or something like that. So for me, if I throw more fastballs the command of that pitch will be better. And if I&#8217;m able to command that pitch, then everything else falls into place. It&#8217;s kind of pitching 101. It&#8217;s not rocket science, it&#8217;s just getting back to the basics and sometimes in this game that&#8217;s what you have to do.”</em></p>
<p>It sounds simple enough. Throw your fastballs for strikes and people will chase your non-fastballs. But it helps when you also truly understand the profile of your pitches. Because he pays attention to spin rates and movement profiles, Clippard is fully aware of the fact that, <a title="Pulling a Fast One: Have the Blue Jays Found a New Market Inefficiency?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/" target="_blank">like many other Blue Jays pitchers</a>, he possess an outlier fastball. In this case, it&#8217;s one with the ability to fight gravity at elevated levels: His 11.15&#8243; of &#8220;rise&#8221; is tied for the 12<sup>th</sup> highest among 295 right-handed relievers in 2017 and ranks behind only four starters.</p>
<p><em>“I always tell my catchers that I&#8217;m a little bit different as far as &#8211; I&#8217;m not necessarily trying to paint down and away with fastballs. I&#8217;m just trying to get it on a half of the plate…I&#8217;m not too worried about height, I&#8217;m worried about strikes and pitching towards the corner because I know that if I do miss up it can be effective. So it&#8217;s kind of a nice leniency to have because as long as I&#8217;m getting it out there (outside), even if it&#8217;s elevated, it&#8217;s ok.”</em></p>
<p>So Tyler Clippard is a guy who knows he has a high “rising” fastball and features a swing-and-miss changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. If that sounds like another Blue Jays pitcher to you, you’re not alone. Clippard has already sought out Marco Estrada to discuss pitching styles.</p>
<p>Clippard specifically asked Estrada about how the latter uses his cutter to complement the fastball/changeup combo. Estrada, who called the two pitchers “very, very, very similar,” gave Clippard some ideal situations on when to use it, but also mentioned that Clippard has “a fastball and changeup that are unhittable,” and that “as a reliever, [Clippard] can use those for [his] entire career and be just fine.” Clippard seemed to be aware of that last bit on his own, but hearing it from his starting pitcher doppelgänger would certainly help convince him that he&#8217;s on the right track. And given Estrada&#8217;s success over the past few years and the quality of Clippard&#8217;s career performance, a meeting of these two minds can&#8217;t be considered anything other than a good thing.</p>
<p>It will be very interesting to see how Clippard approaches this season. If he can get back to his typical pitch mix as planned, he could be this year’s Joe Smith. He has already taken the first steps in identifying the problem, so he&#8217;s off to a good start.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not rocket science. It&#8217;s pitching 101.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/16/tyler-clippard-is-getting-back-to-the-basics/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Four Potential Relief Options With Outlier Fastballs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/21/five-potential-relief-options-with-outlier-fastballs/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/21/five-potential-relief-options-with-outlier-fastballs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2018 11:36:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15180</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the signing of starter Jaime Garcia last week to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $10 million, the Blue Jays&#8217; offseason shopping list is almost complete. The only area left to address (since they seem to have no inclination to improve at backup catcher) is the bullpen. Given the loss of Dominic Leone in the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the signing of starter Jaime Garcia last week to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $10 million, the Blue Jays&#8217; offseason shopping list is almost complete. The only area left to address (since they seem to <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/966032243025162240" target="_blank">have no inclination to improve at backup catcher</a>) is the bullpen. Given the loss of Dominic Leone in the trade for Randal Grichuk, the only guaranteed members of the relief corps going into the start of spring training games are Roberto Osuna, Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup.</p>
<p>There are a bunch of other contenders in camp to fill out the seven- or eight-man crew, but the Blue Jays have said that they plan to add this group from outside the organization. With that information in mind, I decided to take a look at a few free agent relievers who might fit the mold of the fastball outlier targets that <a title="Pulling a Fast One: Have the Blue Jays Found a New Market Inefficiency?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/" target="_blank">I outlined in my piece from Friday</a>. Since Ross Atkins said they will also be targeting some potential starters to move into the bullpen, I will be considering them as well.</p>
<p>My initial research spat out a list of four names who could be of interest to the Blue Jays: three righties and two lefties. <strong>Note:</strong> I am not advocating for all of these players. They simply fit a specific mold.</p>
<h3>Righthanded Relievers</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Trevor Cahill</h4>
<p>Trevor Cahill is a prime candidate for a permanent move to the bullpen. Last year as a starter, Cahill featured about four inches of vertical break between his four and twoseam fastballs. That was still good for the top 20 overall, but when he moved to the bullpen, his velocity spiked. With this spike in velocity came a dramatic change in his movement profile. His fourseamer started staying up more, increasing Cahill&#8217;s vertical break difference to 5.13”, just behind Drew Storen for second among overhand righties. That kind of vertical break difference can help not only with missing bats in key spots, but also with generating weak contact.</p>
<p>One of the issues here is that Cahill is still an extreme sinkerballer, so for his stuff to actually play up, he’ll need to feature the fourseamer more than usual.<a title="Russell Martin on the Art of Pitch Calling: A Masters in Communication" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/the-art-of-pitch-calling-a-masters-in-communication/" target="_blank"> Russell Martin has already consciously made this type of change</a> with J.A. Happ, so perhaps he could do the same for Cahill. Thankfully, Cahill’s sinker is still in the top 20 among all right-handed relief pitchers in sink (and ranks better among non-submariners), even if he would prefer to pitch the way he always has.</p>
<p>With that kind of bat-missing variance and Cahill&#8217;s past (and recent) success, the heavy groundball pitcher has become my favourite potential Blue Jays relief target. He can be a great multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen and handle the occasional spot start if the team doesn&#8217;t wish to use the DL and make a roster move.</p>
<h4>John Lackey</h4>
<p>This one is sort of outside the box, but if we’re going to talk about former starters whose stuff could see a nice uptick in the bullpen, it’s hard to ignore John Lackey. Lackey finished 10th among all starters and eighth among righties in vertical break difference at 4.15”, a number that was even better in 2016 at 4.5”. If a move to a full-time reliever role could give Lackey a boost in vertical break difference similar to Cahill&#8217;s, it’s possible that he could have elite Storen- and Cahill-like vertical break difference &#8212; without the need to dramatically alter his repertoire. And even if that boost didn&#8217;t come, a repeat of last year&#8217;s numbers would still give Lackey a top-10 break difference, while a repeat of his 2016 movement profile would move him into the top seven, including submariners. That would still provide plenty of value as a multi-inning reliever and as depth for the starting rotation.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, though, it’s very hard to see Lackey accepting this kind of role.</p>
<h3>Lefthanded Relievers</h3>
<p>This was a much smaller group to choose from, as there are actually only five left-handed reliever free agents on the list, as well as two starters. Somehow, though, two of those southpaws could actually fit with the outlier fastball model.</p>
<h4>Oliver Perez</h4>
<p>Once upon a time, Perez was a prized pitching prospect. However, trouble with the strike zone (a 5.1 BB/9 during his career in the rotation) eventually forced him into the bullpen. The move to the pen seemed to fix his problems, as his walk rate as a relief pitcher has improved dramatically to the more acceptable rate of 3.8 BB/9. Despite striking out a lot of batters, Perez has still struggled to the tune of a 4.81 ERA over the last two years. He could be a very interesting buy-low candidate, as there are some intriguing aspects to both his pitch usage and his fastball break.</p>
<p>I alluded to this in the piece from last week, but Perez has one of the most extreme horizontal break differences between his sinker and his slider in baseball. In fact, at 17.52&#8243;, only Brad Hand (18.52”) shows a larger gap among lefthanded relief pitchers, and Chris Sale among lefthanded starters (17.84”). Those are two of the best lefthanded pitchers in all of baseball. That comp is obviously a big factor in Perez’ 40-plus percent slider usage, and in why he still dominates lefthanded batters (they hit just .227/.301/.364 off him last year).</p>
<p>That level of horizontal break difference also says a lot about Perez’ sinker. In order to have that kind of break difference, the sinker on its own must have elite, outlier arm side run. This holds true for Perez: His sinker has the fifth-most horizontal break among lefty relievers (Toronto’s Aaron Loup is actually first by a full inch over second place), sixth-most if you once again include Chris Sale. And among those whose fastball averaged over 90 mph (his came in at 92.9), Perez moves up to third among relievers in horizontal break difference.</p>
<p>For some reason, though, Perez uses an even split between his fourseamer and twoseamer &#8211; both at 28 percent &#8211; despite minimal break difference and a very generic-looking fourseam fastball. Perez could take a huge leap forward in his numbers if he saved the fourseamer only for when he wants a strikeout up in the zone, instead relying more on his power sinker/slider combo. This could all make him a very powerful, useful LOOGY who could also potentially get more righties out than he has the last two years.</p>
<h4>Eric O’Flaherty</h4>
<p>I’ll keep O’Flaherty’s writeup brief, as his only really interesting feature is the horizontal break difference between his fourseamer and sinker. At 4.56”, O’Flaherty’s two fastballs have the second highest variance in sideways break among all lefty relievers. The vertical break difference is much more average. Taken on its own that wouldn’t be a big issue, but unfortunately, O’Flaherty pairs those fastballs with a mediocre slider that places near the bottom in overall break difference with either offering. He could perhaps have more success if he altered his fastball usage, but the upside isn’t there for him to be a target with Craig Breslow already signed to a minor league deal.</p>
<p>So that gives us two interesting right-handed reliever options and one-and-a-half lefties should the Blue Jays still be looking at outlier fastballs as a market inefficiency. Given the odd market right now, the cost difference between pitchers may be minimal and lead to other pitchers being considered, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Blue Jays continue the trend of funky fastballs.</p>
<p><strong>NOTE: This piece originally included a bit on Drew Storen, who possessed some very interesting fastball metrics. However, I had forgotten that Storen had Tommy John surgery in September so while he would be an interesting long term play &#8211; the injury could be the reason for his velocity drop the last couple years &#8211; he&#8217;s obviously not a help for the 2018 bullpen.</strong></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports<br />
All pitch info is courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/21/five-potential-relief-options-with-outlier-fastballs/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Pulling a Fast One: Have the Blue Jays Found a New Market Inefficiency?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Feb 2018 18:35:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15147</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A few weeks ago, I found myself in a discussion on Twitter with Scott Mitchell of TSN and Keegan Matheson of Baseball Toronto about Chris Tillman, a player some of us liked as a potential bounceback candidate. The idea that came to me from that discussion was that if they did sign him, he would appear to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A few weeks ago, I found myself <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/954563834945007616" target="_blank">in a discussion on Twitter</a> with Scott Mitchell of <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/talent/scott-mitchell-1.771853" target="_blank">TSN</a> and Keegan Matheson of <a title="Baseball Toronto" href="http://baseballtoronto.com/" target="_blank">Baseball Toronto</a> about <a title="Chris Tillman | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/50062/chris-tillman" target="_blank">Chris Tillman</a>, a player some of us liked as a potential bounceback candidate. The idea that came to me from that discussion was that if they did sign him, he would appear to fit very neatly into a mold of pitchers that this front office likes to acquire: pitchers with some outlier aspect to their fastball. The Blue Jays did not sign Tillman, of course. They signed <a title="Jaime Garcia | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/52254/jaime-garcia" target="_blank">Jaime Garcia</a> instead. But it just so happens that Garcia is an even better example of this potential target group. As a result, I had to check to see if my hypothesis passes the smell test.</p>
<p>In order to check whether my theory actually fits with the reality of pitchers the Jays have targeted and signed, I’m going to focus only on pitchers acquired in the offseason. The specific needs of a club during the season are impacted by so many things, and the market is so much smaller, that it’s hard to target a specific type of player. I&#8217;m also going to focus only on pitchers signed to major-league contracts.</p>
<p>Given those parameters, we end up with this list of pitchers:</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>Starting Pitchers</strong></span><br />
<a title="J.A. Happ | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/46084/j.a.-happ" target="_blank">J.A. Happ</a><br />
<a title="Marco Estrada | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/47658/marco-estrada" target="_blank">Marco Estrada</a><br />
Jaime Garcia</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>Relief Pitchers</strong></span><br />
<a title="Drew Storen | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/59345/drew-storen" target="_blank">Drew Storen</a><br />
<a title="Joe Smith | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/51129/joe-smith" target="_blank">Joe Smith</a><br />
<a title="Gavin Floyd | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/31534/gavin-floyd" target="_blank">Gavin Floyd</a><br />
<a title="Franklin Morales" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/48448/franklin-morales" target="_blank">Franklin Morales</a><br />
<a title="J.P. Howell | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/45541/j.p.-howell" target="_blank">J.P Howell</a></p>
<h4>Starting Pitchers</h4>
<p>Let’s first focus on the starting pitchers.</p>
<h5>J.A Happ</h5>
<p>I’ve gone into detail on this a few times in the past (<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">most notably here</a>), but J.A. Happ gets more vertical break difference between his twoseamer and fourseamer than any other starter in baseball who throws at least 500 of each in a season. If you drop that threshold down to 50 last year, he finished &#8212; you guessed it &#8212; number one on that list as well. In fact, the only pitchers who even finished ahead of him at that threshold in either of the last <em><i>two</i></em> years are <a title="Vincent Velasquez | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/67143/vincent-velasquez" target="_blank">Vincent Velasquez </a>of the Phillies, who <em>just</em> meets the minimums, and <a title="Marcus Stroman | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70371/marcus-stroman" target="_blank">Marcus Stroman</a> of these very Toronto Blue Jays. Happ also uses them quite effectively, throwing both pitches over 25 percent of the time in 2017.</p>
<h5>Marco Estrada</h5>
<p>As with J.A. Happ, I have written about Marco Estrada many times. The most significant point across most of my work, and the thing that comes up so often that anybody reading this should be fully aware of it by now, is that Marco Estrada’s fastball fights gravity at a higher rate than any other pitcher in the major leagues. Last year, Estrada’s fastball “rose” by 13.23” on average. <a title="Clayton Kershaw" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/49786/clayton-kershaw" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw </a>was second at 11.89”. In 2016, Estrada’s fastball “rose” by 13.06”. The now-a-reliever <a title="Chris Young | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/45140/chris-young" target="_blank">Chris Young</a>, the only other pitcher at all like Estrada, was second at 12.52”, and Clayton Kershaw was once again next at 12.06”. So we’re talking about a fastball that fights gravity by at least an inch over the next best starter, let alone the average fastball. If that’s not an outlier, I’m not sure what is.</p>
<h5><strong>Jaime Garcia</strong></h5>
<p>Finally, we get to the newest acquisition.</p>
<p>About a month ago, inspired by J.A. Happ, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/13/how-pitchers-should-mix-the-sinker-and-the-fastball-to-be-successful/" target="_blank">I wrote a piece</a> looking at the break variances of a group of pitchers across baseball who throw a high percentage of fastballs. The idea was to see if I could identify pitchers who should be changing their two and fourseam mix to increase effectiveness. I created the following chart:</p>
<iframe src="https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/published.do?rid=4kih308cf0bf3672c4a168a9b74642b2441d9&amp;mode=embed" width="700" height="400" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>For a full page version of the above if you don&#8217;t feel like scrolling as much, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oXsrUGmZrrp8ywcOqjnjvmvV9HJfQHsbK-kTWFUtrAY/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">click here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The sheet above is sorted by overall break difference, across the two axes, between the sinker and the fourseamer. The conclusion of the original piece was basically that <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/67143/vincent-velasquez" target="_blank">Vincent Velasquez</a> needs a new pitching coach, but near the top of that spreadsheet, just behind <a title="Trevor Williams  | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/100206/trevor-williams" target="_blank">Trevor Williams</a> of the Pirates, we see Jaime Garcia &#8212; whose 6.4” of break is second in all of baseball.</p>
<p>Garcia&#8217;s high ranking on the list is mostly thanks to a ridiculous 5.5” of horizontal break difference between the two offerings. This is second in the major leagues to the White Sox&#8217; <a title="Dylan Covey | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/68529/dylan-covey" target="_blank">Dylan Covey</a> at 5.8”. But unlike Covey, Garcia also gets an additional 3.3” of <em><i>vertical</i></em><strong><b> </b></strong>break between his two fastballs. This helps not only with missing bats, but also with generating groundballs and popups.</p>
<p>So we have an outlier fastball in terms of movement across the two planes, but there’s even more deception than the information above makes it seem. As mentioned before, Trevor Williams gets slightly more overall break difference (by a mere 0.1”) than Garcia. However, Williams’ two offerings have a velocity difference of 2.4 mph. That’s fine, but now consider Jaime Garcia’s velocity difference between his two offerings: 0.0 mph. He throws the two pitches at exactly the same speed, making it very hard to differentiate between them until it&#8217;s too late.</p>
<p>And finally, just to finish off the starters nicely, a quick paragraph on the two drafted starters that were here when Shapiro and Atkins showed up:</p>
<p>As mentioned above, Marcus Stroman actually finished ahead of J.A. Happ with his vertical fastball break in 2016. But he functions as an even greater fastball outlier when you include his cutter. I went into more depth<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/15/why-marcus-stroman-is-primed-to-take-a-big-step-forward-in-2017/" target="_blank"> on this topic here</a>, but Stroman was the only pitcher in baseball with at least 6&#8243; of total break between all three offerings, with hitters needing to cover a triangular area of 20.7&#8243; when facing him. With a velocity difference of just 3 mph, no other pitcher in baseball could say that. As for Aaron Sanchez, he can be summed up in one sentence: The only pitcher who threw his sinker harder with more horizontal break last year was <a title="Alex Meyer | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70760/alex-meyer" target="_blank">Alex Meyer </a>of the Angels. If you drop the threshold to just 50 pitches, rookie sensation <a title="Luis Castillo  | Baseball Prospectus" href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/100945/luis-castillo" target="_blank">Luis Castillo</a> also makes the list, leaving us with only two pitchers who threw harder with more run than Sanchez.</p>
<p>Clearly, then, the Blue Jays have a rotation full of pitchers with outlier fastballs or fastball mixes.</p>
<h4>Relief Pitchers</h4>
<p>I’m going to only very briefly touch on the relievers, because this matters far more in the rotation than in the bullpen, as in the rotation you are facing hitters multiple times. That said, it still plays up in individual at-bats, so the relievers are worth a mention here.</p>
<p>First up was Drew Storen. This was a trade that made sense to just about everybody: Storen had a track record and Ben Revere was superfluous. Looking deeper, though, it would seem like Storen also fits the pattern we&#8217;ve established.</p>
<p>While it’s not the fastball alone like the starters listed above, Storen had elite horizontal break difference between his fastball and his slider. Here is the list of pitchers that finished ahead of Storen entering 2016:</p>
<p><a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/49543/sergio-romo" target="_blank">Sergio Romo</a> &#8211; 19.01”<br />
Joe Smith &#8211; 18.05”<br />
<a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/639/oliver-perez" target="_blank">Oliver Perez</a> &#8211; 18.04”</p>
<p>Storen’s 17.54” was behind only three pitchers, two of whom were under contract to teams who weren’t about to trade them and one of whom is a lefty who occasionally struggles to throw strikes.</p>
<p>And since he’s right there on the list above, Joe Smith seems to require very little explanation, but I will add some more information anyway. Thanks to his submarine delivery, his sinker in 2016 got -1.79” of vertical movement, which was the fourth lowest among righthanded relievers.</p>
<p>However, 2016 was a down year for Smith statistically thanks to a hamstring injury. The year prior, the submariner had finished third among righthanders in most sink, but had also posted the third highest difference in vertical break between his fourseam and twoseam fastballs &#8211; something that had disappeared in 2016. In 2017, he was back in third among righties in sink but also with the same vertical break difference as the seasons prior to 2016. So in addition to outlier sink, not only did Smith have elite horizontal break difference between fastball and slider, but also between his two fastballs.</p>
<p>I’ll sum up the last three relievers in bullet point form because of their minimal impact:</p>
<p>&#8211; J.P. Howell’s twoseamer had the eighth-most sink among lefthanded relievers at 2.15”, and the <em><i>lowest </i></em>among pitchers who throw overhand.<br />
&#8211; The number of lefties who threw harder and had more horizontal break difference between their two fastballs than Franklin Morales in 2015: one. (That one lefty was <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/57860/sam-freeman" target="_blank">Sam Freeman</a>, a successful reliever for the Braves.)<br />
&#8211; I couldn’t find much in the way of outliers for Gavin Floyd, but it’s also very hard to separate his break data across his starting and relieving roles.</p>
<p>If you’re wondering why any of this would matter, and why a team would make a concerted effort to pick up this type of pitcher, the answer lies in how hitters perceive a pitch. The documentary <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5434972/" target="_blank"><em><i>“Fastball”</i></em></a> goes into this in depth (and with better science than I can provide), but hitters do not track the entire path of a fastball. The pitch moves too fast for the eye to process. As such, the brain essentially creates a “most likely trajectory” based on what it has seen already in the moment, heavily influenced by what it has seen in the past.</p>
<p>By having your ball do things differently than other pitchers, you are going to have the ball end up in a slightly different spot than the perceived trajectory. This makes it more likely to miss bats or create soft contact. That’s how Jaime Garcia ended up with <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FT%7CSI%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=250&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=xwoba&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=0#results" target="_blank">a lower xwOBA on his sinker than Clayton Kershaw</a>, and how Marco Estrada gets strikeouts with 89-mph fastballs at the letters.</p>
<p>So are the Blue Jays doing this on purpose? Of our data set of eight pitchers, seven acquisitions had notable outlier aspects to their fastballs, or at least in the case of Storen, his fastball relative to his breaking ball. While it’s impossible to say for certain if this is an intentional pattern by the Blue Jays, it’s at least something of a trend, and one I’m going to keep monitoring going forward. And most importantly, if it <em><i>is </i></em>on purpose, it’s possible that the Blue Jays have discovered a new market inefficiency, as all of these pitchers have come very cheap.</p>
<p>Very cool, Messrs. Atkins and Shapiro.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sport<br />
Movement data courtesy of <a href="brooksbaseball.net" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball</a></em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Blue Jays Sign RP Jake Petricka to a Minor League Deal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/08/blue-jays-sign-rp-jake-petricka-to-a-minor-league-deal/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/08/blue-jays-sign-rp-jake-petricka-to-a-minor-league-deal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Feb 2018 16:28:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15089</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays bolstered their relief depth today with the signing of former White Sox reliever, Jake Petricka, according to SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo: Source: Blue Jays in agreement with reliever Jake Petricka on minor-league deal. He&#39;ll get $1.3M if he makes the majors, $500k in incentives. &#8212; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 8, 2018 From [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays bolstered their relief depth today with the signing of former White Sox reliever, Jake Petricka, according to SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Blue Jays in agreement with reliever Jake Petricka on minor-league deal. He&#39;ll get $1.3M if he makes the majors, $500k in incentives.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/961632943914586112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 8, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>From 2013-2015, his first few seasons in the league, Petricka was a very useful reliever for Chicago; he even served as the team&#8217;s closer for a brief spell during that time. The 6&#8217;5&#8243; RHP posted a 3.24 ERA across 144 1/3 innings in 145 outings. He didn&#8217;t strike many people out (98) and had an issue with walks (61), but relied on a hard, heavy sinker that can touch the upper 90s to generate groundballs at extreme rates.</p>
<p>Petricka&#8217;s groundball rates during those three seasons were 62.9%, 63.4%, and 65.2%, respectively, for an overall groundball rate of 64.0%. That placed him fifth in all of baseball during that span, behind only Zach Britton, Brad Ziegler, Sam Dyson (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UdsVO7HaJg" target="_blank">Bautista with a Drive&#8230;</a>), and lefty specialist Javier Lopez. In short, his ability to keep the on the ground was among the super elite. As a corollary to that specific skillset, he was also quite stingy with home runs, with his 0.31 HR/9 rate once again placing him fifth in baseball (tied).</p>
<p>Unfortunately, injuries started to pop up for Petricka starting in 2016, and he has only thrown 33 2/3 innings over the last two years, with horrible numbers and a complete loss of ability to keep the ball in the yard (1.9 HR/9). The hope is that his recent elbow surgery &#8211; nerve transposition surgery &#8211; has corrected these issues and that he can return to the highly useful reliever that he used to be.</p>
<p>At worst, the Blue Jays have signed a formerly solid pitcher to a minor league deal and have to cut him at the end of spring because he just doesn&#8217;t have it anymore. In the middle, they&#8217;ve improved some of their depth. But at best, if Petricka is finally healthy again, the Blue Jays have just picked up a pitcher for cheap who can help at the back end of games, which is clearly an area of need with the departure of Dominic Leone and the workload concerns for Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Roberto Osuna.</p>
<p>There is still clearly work to be done in both the rotation and the bullpen, but this is a nice, tidy piece of business.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/08/blue-jays-sign-rp-jake-petricka-to-a-minor-league-deal/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
