Toronto vs. Cleveland: ALCS Game 4 Preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland

October 17th, 2016

Written by Tammy Rainey and Eric Mercer

Well, the Jays have done themselves no favours. One can only hope that they have a flair for the dramatic but that seems foolishly optmistic. At the start of the series, if you had guessed the Jays pitching would limit Cleveland to eight runs through the first three games you would definitely take it. You would likely assume that the Jays would have at least one, if not two wins. Obviously, that is not the case because the Jays have scored just three runs of their own. THREE RUNS.

This is a team that crossed the plate 22 times in the same number of games against Texas. Sure, Cleveland has better pitching, but not by a wide margin considering Carrasco and Salazar aren’t playing. I don’t want to paint too grim a picture since the Jays have their best starter on the mound today, but things are looking bleak for the boys in blue. They will need to rely on their pitching again but it will be the team’s offense that will decide if the get to play another day.

Pitching Matchups:

Aaron Sanchez(15-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.77 DRA)

The Jays require their best starter to perform to his abilities on Tuesday afternoon. There isn’t anyone we would rather see on the mound than Sanchez, who has shown a remarkable ability to win games all season long. He has been able to do that by consistently producing groundballs and generating outs off his 96 mph sinker (60 percent usage).

Sanchez mixes in a fourseamer and a hard biting curveball with regularity and sprinkles in a changeup as well. The Jays defense has been exceptional throughout the postseason so far, the only error was commited by J.A. Happ on a throw over to first base, and it will need to continue to shine with an extreme groundball pitcher on the mound.

Similarly with Stroman, the key to success for Sanchez will be his ability to locate the sinker on the lower parts of the zone. This is something he has been able to do with regularity throughout the regular season, though he struggled wit command overall last time out against Texas. Even though opposing hitters know the sinker will go down, they can’t adjust to the heavy two-plane movement. If Sanchez can do this consistently and early in counts, he should be able to contain the Cleveland offense and allow time for the Blue Birds to swing the sticks and take the lead for the first time in the series.

Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA, 2.97) 

Terry Francona has decided to pitch Corey Kluber on short rest for the first time in his MLB career. Despite holding a 3-0 lead in the series and not pitching game four’s expected starter, Ryan Merritt, in the bullpen game last night, Francona is still calling on his ace.

Kluber is known for his durability. In the last four seasons combined, Kluber has thrown 820 innings. Those innings have been top quality as well; he has pitched to the tune of a 133 ERA+ which essentially means he has been 33 percent better than the average starter in the MLB over those four seasons. adjusting for park factors.

Unlike his counterpart on the mound on Tuesday, Kluber has made some changes over the course of the 2016 season to remain effective. As you can see in the graph below, Corey has dramatically increased the rate at which he throws his sinker and decreased his fourseam usage. Kluber throws a nearly unhittable slider, which the Jays witnessed first hand in Game 1. His last main pitch is a cutter with an inordinate amount of movement down and away to right handed hitters.

 

There are two potential positives for the Blue Jays of Kluber being run out for this outing. As mentioned earlier, he has never pitched on short rest in his MLB career and he may experience ill effects as a result. That may be a pipe dream, but the Jays and their fans are diminshed to believing in pipes dreams at this point. The other positive is that the Jays faced him so recently. He shut down Toronto’s offense but there is an opportunity to use that intel and actually get some hits on Tuesday.

Keep an Eye On

Will Act Four be any Different?

After the offense came up empty versus Corey Kluber in game one, the concern for game two was “we need some runs” and Josh Tomlin said “Nope.” Again, previewing game three the first item on this list was “the bats need to wake up” and for the most part, they didn’t (Michael Saunders game tying homer and the Ezequiel Carrera triple notwithstanding). There’s little to say that has not already been said. Aaron Sanchez can throw the best game of his life tomorrow and it go for naught if the Blue Jays do not score multiple runs.

Unknown Territory

Corey Kluber, as mentioned above, has never started a major league game on short rest. If the Jays can get to him early and force the Cleveland bullpen to throw yet another long game, it could have effects that last well into the deep stages of a potential Game 5. They had him on the ropes last time out, and a key hit here or there would do wonders for Toronto’s chances of completing an historic (we just pretend 2004 didn’t happen) comeback.

Managerial Magic

Cleveland manager Terry Francona has drawn universal praise for his decision making in this post season, showing the wisdom to use Andrew Miller in just the right spot being foremost among them. So far, John Gibbons has kept pace throughout the playoffs seeming to push the right buttons even if the bats failed to execute. Beyond a mild quibble last night over whether Pompey should have gone in to run for Navarro, it’s been quite hard to find fault. He’ll need to continue to keep pace because the Jays will likely have no margin for error.

Probable Lineup

Away Team	Home Team
1 Carlos Santana – DH	1 Jose Bautista – RF
2 Jason Kipnis – 2B	2 Josh Donaldson – 3B
3 Francisco Lindor – SS	3 Edwin Encarnacion – 1B
4 Mike Napoli – 1B	4 Troy Tulowitzki – SS
5 Jose Ramirez – 3B	5 Russel Martin – C
6 Lonnie Chisenhall – RF	6 Michael Saunders – DH
7 Coco Crisp – LF	7 Ezequiel Carrera – LF
8 Tyler Naquin – CF	8 Kevin Pillar – CF
9 Roberto Perez – C	9 Ryan Goins – 2B

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

If there’s anything that Blue Jays fans have come to fully understand and appreciate these last few days, it’s what happened to the mighty Red Sox. We should not be entirely surprised that if Boston had problems with this staff, Toronto would as well. That said, in a shorter series they had fewer opportunities. The sting of losing Game 3 was that a bullpen game was the one you were supposed to win. Now, on the brink of elimination, every inning remaining in this series is crucial. May there be at least 36 more.

Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports