Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics
Friday, July 15th – Sunday, July 17th
Written by Eric Mercer and Greg Wisniewski
The Blue Jays kick off what is referred to as the the “second half” against the Athletics in Oakland. Whether it is mathematically accurate to call it the second half of the season is perhaps a discussion for another time and place. The Blue Jays were on a solid roll prior to the break, going 8-2 in their final ten games before the midsummer classic. The Athletics were not, going 3-7 to finish that last stretch. Oakland is also only one game out of last in the West, and is even worse at home than on the road. So by all accounts, this series should favour the boys in blue.
Pitching Matchups:
Friday, July 15th – 10:05 PM ET
Marcus Stroman (7-4, 4.89 ERA) @ Daniel Mengden (1-4, 4.54 ERA)
For the better part of the season, Stroman has been less than advertised. So much so, in fact, that numerous people that follow the Jays were calling for him to be sent to AAA. While I understand the reasoning, I think it is only fair to Marcus to allow him to make adjustments to hitters now that they have seen him for over 40 starts. In his last two starts, Stroman has been nothing short of splendid, going a combined 14.2 innings, allowing only eight hits and three runs while striking out 12 and walking two. That is the Marcus Stroman the Jays are going to need down the stretch to compete for a division title. As a word of caution, two sparkling starts in a row does not mean Stroman is ‘back,’ but it does suggest that perhaps he has made an appropriate change to the way hitters had adjusted to him.
Rich Hill was lined up to get the first start out of the All-Star break… And he has been scratched with a blister. As a result, the Jays will face rookie Daniel Mengden, a 23 year old who has made a grand total of six major league starts. Mengden has a fairly traditional four-pitch repertoire. He throws the fourseam fastball the most (46%), followed by the slider (21%), then the change (15%) and the curve (11%). He generates a decent amount of swing-and-misses on the curve and slider but doesn’t miss many bats with the changeup. The young rookie strikes out his fair share of batters, posting a 9.35 K/9, but has had some trouble with consistently finding the strikezone as well. Daniel has issued free passes to 3.8 batters per nine innings this year. The Jays will need to be patient with the rookie on the mound and wait for him to miss his spots.
Saturday, July 16th – 4:05 PM ET
J.A. Happ (12-3, 3.36 ERA) @ Sonny Gray (3-8, 5.16 ERA)
Happ has been phenomenal for the Jays all year long. The former-turned-current Blue Jay’s poor starts are few and far between. Most nights he brings a consistent, ‘bland’ performance that makes it difficult to appreciate his effectiveness. He does not overpower hitters but attacks them where he wants, hits his spots and gets outs. Happ is on pace for exactly 200 innings this year. 200 league average innings are quite valuable, and Happ has been well above league average at this point in the season. He will continue to throw three different fastballs (fourseam, sinker and cutter) to great effectiveness and toss in the curve and change to keep hitters off balance. Happ has the ability to hide-in-plain-sight, look for him to continue to do just that.
This season has not produced the numbers that are typically associated with Sonny Gray; usually he is a lock to be a top of the rotation starter. However, this is his first year in the league where Gray has faced significant adversity. In terms of his pitch usage, there hasn’t been a truly noteworthy change. He is throwing the slider less and the changeup more but it isn’t a drastic difference. He still throws mainly fourseam fastballs and sinkers (combined 61%) with a curve being his major off-speed pitch (15%). The only discernable difference I can see is his ability to miss bats with his fourseam fastball. His whiff rate has been cut in half this year compared with last year. The game plan for the Jays should be to sit on the fourseam in the upper-half of the zone as Sonny has been pounded in that area of the plate all season long. Plus, the Jays are naturally fastball hitters. If Gray has trouble locating the zone continue, hit outing could be short.
Sunday, July 17th – 4:05 PM ET
R.A. Dickey @ Rich Hill
Since the start of May, Dickey has been one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball. In those most recent 14 starts, he has pitched 90.0 innings, or 6.1 per outing, to the tune of a 3.10 ERA. I expect Dickey to display the same consistency we have become accustomed to when watching Happ. In R.A.’s last three starts, he has gone 7.0 innings every time and allowing only six runs during that span. Dickey’s knuckler has looked good as of late, but the true test always comes down to his ability to consistently hit the strike zone and not walk people. Dickey has the capability of being his own worst enemy, but he hasn’t allowed more than three walks in a start since the beginning of June.
Remember Rich Hill, who was lined up to start game one until a blister knocked him out of the rotation? The A’s have announced (as of Friday) that he will be making the Sunday start instead. Facing much adversity over the last several years, it looked liek 36 year old Rich Hill was done. Then, in a tough spot for starting pitching last year, the Red Sox brought him up to the majors. In his first four starts since 2009, he was fantastic. Oakland signed him to a one year deal in the offseason, and he’s become an excellent starter. Hill relies heavily on his big curve (46.4% in 2016) slightly more often than he shows his fastball (46.25%). His slider is in the mix just to keep hitters guessing at 4.49% usage. He leads the A’s starters in DRA at 2.51 and K/9 at 10.66. The Toronto batters might be disappointed after thinking they were going to miss him this time around.
Additions and Subtractions
Other than Rich Hill’s delayed start (mentioned above), the last roster move the A’s made was to place Fernando Rodriguez on the DL with a shoulder strain July 4th.
The Blue Jays have sent Super Utility/Late Inning reliever Ryan Goins on rehab assignment. Goins was dealing with a forearm strain from when he began his MLB pitching career against Cleveland two weeks ago. He may soon cross paths with Chris Colabello, who will likely be promoted to AAA Buffalo as he gets back into the swing of things after serving his 81 game PED suspension. Macro Estrada will be eligible to return to the rotation on Monday, July 18th, which is an off day. Regardless, he won’t be pitching in Oakland.
Keep an Eye On
West Coast Ready
Let’s see if the Jays can avoid a West Coast time change hangover, as the five All-Star players in San Diego and a handful who vacationed together in Cabo San Lucas will already be on Pacific time. The Jays are, after a lackluster April and May, the best hitting team in baseball. Over the last 30 days they lead the league in walk rate (10.5 percent), ISO (.221) and home runs (tied with the Cubs at 51). And all of that with precious little contribution from the Mr. Turf Toe, Jose Bautista.
That 30 day span has Donaldson slugging .776, Encarnacion at .774, and perhaps most encouragingly, Troy Tulowitzki at .600. Will the cool night air take the sting out of their bats in Oakland? Keep watching.
Try to Keep It Dull
Ryan Dull, Oakland reliever, is setting an incredibly dull record. Whenever Dull has entered the game with another pitcher’s runners on base, he has prevented them from scoring. If you don’t want to click the link, he has stranded all 36 runners so far this season. That’s an accomplishment that is never going to set off fireworks in the outfield, but it will make you loads of friends out of whatever pitcher’s messes you’ve been tasked with cleaning up all year.
Now You See Them….
Ultimately, the A’s will be in sell mode. Even though individual players will tell you there’s fight left in this team, being 15.5 games back before the start of August is exactly the kind of thing that will make Billy Beane look toawrds the future. We might see who is scouting Oakland’s trade chips, and with the move of Drew Pomeranz already, a couple of guys might be getting hugs in the dugout before the end of the series. Other than Hill (with a 2.51 DRA), the top pitchers on Oakland’s roster have been Dull (also 2.51 DRA) and one-time closer Sean Doolittle, a lefty with a 3.12 DRA. On the offensive side, the A’s best performer is Danny Valencia (.312 tAV). Yes, the same guy who the Blue Jays let go in 2015 for nothing because their roster had too many great hitters on it.
Probable Lineup
Away Team |
Home Team |
Ezequiel Carrera – RF | Coco Crisp – LF |
Josh Donaldson 3B | Jed Lowrie – 2B |
Edwin Encarnacion 1B | Josh Reddick – RF |
Michael Saunders – LF | Danny Valencia – 3B |
Russell Martin – C | Khris Davis – DH |
Troy Tulowitzki – SS | Stephen Vogt – C |
Justin Smoak – DH | Marcu Semien – SS |
Devon Travis – 2B | Yonder Alonso – 1B |
Kevin Pillar – CF | Billy Burns – CF |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Jays are poised to make up some ground in the next couple of weeks, facing of against only one team over .500 in their next four series. Whether the Jays perform as well as might be expected is of great interest, as is how they juggle the rotation with a number of off days coming up. With the exception of Jose Bautista, the Toronto roster is in near optimal condition for the second half, and the quest to capture a second consecutive AL East crown begins in earnest on Friday Night.
Lead Photo: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports