Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies
Monday, June 27th – Wednesday, June 29th
Written by Matt Gwin and Mike Passador
It’s Tulo’s return to the Mile High City, and he’s even healthy for the occasion! Had a certain Trevor John Story never existed, the occasion probably would have momentous (though it should still be notable). It also probably would have helped if Troy Tulowitzki had:
A. Been hitting better than your average middle infielder (overall).
and
B. Not been injured for a good portion of this season.
Either way, momentous or not, the Blue Jays hopefully won’t have too much trouble beating the Rockies, who are 36-39 on the season. A series sweep wouldn’t put Toronto in place to take the top spot in the AL East, but it would cement their currently held wildcard position.
Pitching Matchups:
Monday, June 27th – 8:40 PM ET
Marco Estrada @ Jon Gray
One can no longer attempt to explain Marco Estrada; he’s an outlier in every sense of the word. If he can throw six or more innings with five or fewer hits in this start, it’ll be his twelfth straight such start (his eleven are already a major league record). Coors Field doesn’t exactly present a prime candidate for continuing the streak, given Estrada’s flyball nature. That said, he has braved the pitching storm in Arizona, Boston, New York, and Texas. Who are we to question the staff ace? Long live Marco.
If you account for some of the the effects of his home park, Gray has been a fairly good pitcher this year. On the season, he has an ERA of 4.80, which is the 27th worst in baseball, but a 3.74 DRA, which is 38th best in baseball. However, despite a fairly successful season, Gray’s major flaw has been consistency. He has registered three starts with 10+ strikeouts; something that Toronto’s entire starting staff has achieved just once. Fortunately for the Jays, Gray is coming off of back to back poor starts, and will be pitching in Coors, where has has struggled. He also left his last start with arm fatigue.
Tuesday, June 28th – 8:40 PM ET
J.A. Happ @ Eddie Butler
Happ did two interesting things in his last start: strike out a season high eight batters, and walk a season high four. To me, that would indicate that he struggled to command his stuff, but that Diamondbacks hitters were just swinging away. The Rockies are neither a strikeout or walk heavy team, so that bodes well for J.A.. He’ll just have to control the sinker, and try and keep the ball in the park. If he can do that, J.A. Happ will be golden.
Just a year or two ago, Eddie Butler was in the discussion for the best Rockies prospect; ahead of Jonathan Gray. However, his major league efforts have done little to inspire any confidence. After the early parts of his minor league career in which he was generally a strikeout pitcher, Butler has struggled to follow suit as a Rockie. His current 15.3 percent strikeout rate ranks as the 17th worst mark in the majors. His two most recent starts don’t paint any different picture. Instead, they represent Butler’s worst and third worst starts in terms of hits allowed. Even a Bautista-less Jays team should be able to handle Eddie.
Wednesday, June 29th – 3:10 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez @ Tyler Anderson
In Aaron Sanchez’s last start, he posted his lowest strikeout rate this season. Instead, he kept the ball low in the zone, and generated the highest ground ball rate on the year. If you look at Sanchez’s pitch mix, you can see that it was clearly a conscious choice. He threw 73.3% sinkers, another season high. Sanchez now seems to have his two fastballs (four-seam and sinking) working in congruence with the curveball. That’s a deadly combination. As fans, we should enjoy it while we can, because it (and he) may not be around as a starter for too much longer. It will also be interesting to see how the he fares at the mile high altitudes in Denver, as balls tend to stay up more than they do elsewhere.
Tyler Anderson’s start against the Jays will be just the fourth major league start of his career. He’s 26, and was nowhere to be found on Baseball Prospectus’ Rockies Top 10 Prospects list. However, he has also yet to give up a home run over 17.2 IP, while striking out 18 and walking just three. Those are gaudy numbers for any starter, and otherworldly for Tyler Anderson. His calling card thus far has been the cutter, which he’s using much more than he did during Spring Training. Anderson is also getting 20 percent whiffs off of it, which places it in a similar category as J.A. Happ’s cutter. It’s possible that Tyler Anderson has developed his cutter to the point where he can be an above average major league starter, but I have my doubts.
Additions and Subtractions
The Blue Jays will head to Coors Field with some new faces in the bullpen. Gavin Floyd was placed on the 15-day DL with right shoulder tightness after he left Saturday’s only two batters into his appearance. In his stead, the team recalled right hander Bo Schultz who made his season debut on Sunday. The team also optioned lefty Chad Girodo to AAA Buffalo and recalled right hander Ryan Tepera after Sunday’s series finale. Lefties Brett Cecil and Franklin Morales are currently pitching in Buffalo and are nearing returns themselves (likely at the expense of the two recent additions).
In the outfield, Jose Bautista is still sidelined with a case of turf toe. After Darrell Ceciliani produced a pair of unimpressive games, Junior Lake was called up to take his place as the team’s fourth outfielder.
As far as hobbled Jays, Ezequiel Carerra seems no worse for wear after his Achilles forced him to miss a game last week. On a less positive note, Justin Smoak hasn’t played since the series finale against Arizona thanks swelling in his knee. Smoak fouled a ball off his knee last Wednesday, but he likely won’t require a stint on the DL and could be back this series.
The Rockies have placed four players on the disabled list this month, including left fielder Gerardo Parra (sprained ankle) and closer Jake McGee (knee inflamation). Former Blue Jay closer Miguel Castro was recently activated but sent down to AAA Albuquerque when the team called up Yohan Flande. Most pressing for the Rockies is the status of rookie shortstop Trevor Story, who was sent for X-rays on his hand after being hit by a pitch on Sunday night. While the Jays would be glad to avoid his bat, it would be a shame for fans who have yet to see the budding star.
Keep an Eye On
Tulowitzki’s Return
The big storyline in this series is obviously Troy Tulowitzki’s return to Colorado. Tulo burst onto the scene as a rookie shortstop who helped the Rockies make the World Series in 2007. During his time in Colordao, Tulo established and then cemented his reputation as one of the game’s finest all-around players. He became an immediate fan favorite whose legend grew thanks to his tireless work ethic and exemplary professionalism as the face of the team through both contending and rebuilding phases. He had 10 fabulous years in Colorado where he collected 188 home runs, 657 RBI and slashed .299/.366/.504 while making four All Star Appearances. Tulowitzki also brought home two Gold Gloves to match his two Silver Slugger awards.
His trade to the Jays caught him by surprise, as the shortstop owned a lengthy contract and the organization promised he would be kept in the loop on any trade discussions. When the move was announced, he felt “betrayed” and “blindsided” that the team’s ownership didn’t consult him as trade talks became serious. While Tulowitzki’s relationship with the organization is complicated, expect fans to give him a warm welcome and don’t be surprised if a long, loud “TULO” chant breaks out on Monday night.
Third Base Battle
While Toronto fans are familiar with the exploits of Josh Donaldson, they’ll get a chance to see another of the game’s premier third basemen in Nolan Arenado. The 25 year old was sensational for the Rockies last season, putting up a slash line of .287/.323/.575 with 42 homers and 130 RBI and added tremendous defense on his way to an All Star nod and Gold Glove and Silver Slugger honors.
This season Arenado has picked up right where he left off, having already connected for 21 home runs and 63 RBI in just 73 games. In addition to the power surge, he has also seen his OBP jump up to .379. Arenado will present a major challenge for Blue Jay pitching over the next three games.
The Blue Jays and Rockies are infrequent opponents, so fans will have to capitalize on their chance to watch one of baseball’s most exciting young superstars.
Rocky Relief
Colorado, much like the Jays, has been victimized by bullpen struggles this season. The Rockies sit 29th in bullpen ERA with a 4.80 mark and the injuries to Miguel Castro and closer Jake McGee have only exacerbated the problem. McGee’s injury pushed 23 year old Carlos Estevez into the closer role, and while he has an underwhelming 4.28 ERA and 1.24 WHIP for the season, he has actually performed well as of late. 10 of his 12 appearances in June have been scoreless, but Toronto will still have ample opportunities to score runs on various Rockies pitchers. It might be shades of 2015, as the Blue Jay bats are likely to score runs in bunches off the bullpen.
Probable Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays |
Colorado Rockies |
| 1 Ezequiel Carrera-RF | 1 Charlie Blackmon-CF |
| 2 Josh Donaldson-3B | 2 DJ LeMahieu-2B |
| 3 Edwin Encarnacion-1B | 3 Nolan Arenado-3B |
| 4 Michael Saunders-LF | 4 Carlos Gonzalez-RF |
| 5 Russell Martin-C | 5 Trevor Story-SS |
| 6 Troy Tulowitzki-SS | 6 Ryan Raburn-LF |
| 7 Kevin Pillar-CF | 7 Mark Reynolds-1B |
| 8 Devon Travis-2B | 8 Nick Hundley-C |
| 9 Pitcher | 9 Pitcher |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
After Toronto’s offense has struggled in the team’s recent defeats, a trip to Colorado could cure what ails them. They are undoubtedly a better team than the Rockies and have their three best pitchers taking the mound over the course of the series, so the odds are in their favor. The Jays will hope to bring home at least a shiny series win when they return for Canada Day festivities.
Lead Photo: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports