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Slithering into Summer: Diamondbacks Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tuesday, June 21st – Wednesday, June 22nd

Written by Joshua Howsam and Eric Mercer

Coming off a tough series loss to the first place Orioles, the Blue Jays come home to take on the Diamondbacks for a brief two-game set. The Jays bats definitely came to play in Baltimore, but the pitching let them down in the series finale. Overall though, the Blue Jays have been playing extremely well of late, and find themselves right back in the mix atop the AL East. The 33-39 Diamondbacks must be disappointed with their performance to this point – especially given the big off-season pickups of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller – but they are on a bit of a hot streak, having just completed a four-game sweep of the Phillies and with seven wins in their last ten games.

Pitching Matchups:

Tuesday, June 21st – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET

Marco Estrada (5-2, 2.58 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (3-6, 4.76 ERA) 

Marco Estrada gets the ball in the opener against the Diamondbacks. He has been nothing short of spectacular for the entirety of the season. The last time Estrada gave up more than five hits was on April 21, his third start of the year. The last time Estrada went less than six innings was…yes, you guessed it, on April 21. That is 10 consecutive starts with at least six innings pitched and five or less hit allowed. That tied the current major league record, which is held by Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta in 2014, and Johan Santana in 2004.

If Marco sticks to the game plan that has made him so successful these past two seasons, he has a good chance of attaining sole ownership of that record. He needs to continue to elevate the fastball, followed by the changeup. Estrada has been phenomenal at inducing pop-ups with his high heat. In 2016, Estrada has generated in-field fly balls 18% of at-bats which leads the entire MLB. Opposing batters are hitting just .121 when they hit a fly ball or pop-up this season. If batters lay off the fastball upstairs, then they can expect the change up next. They know the changeup is coming. It is Marco’s best pitch. Yet, they still cannot hit it. Batters are hitting a mere .109 against the change all season long. If Marco sticks to the blueprint that has worked for the better part of 40 starts, he has a great chance of extending his current streak and sitting alone atop the all-time leaderboards.

Patrick Corbin displayed success at the major league level in 2013, his second year in the league. That season he threw over 200 innings, compiling 178 strikeouts to go along with a 3.41 ERA and an all-star appearance. At 23 years of age, he really turned some heads; unfortunately for Patrick, he hasn’t been able to attain the same level for prolonged periods of time. This season, he throws the fourseam (37%), sinker (26%), slider (23%) and the changeup (13%). Look for Corbin to stay away from the Blue Jays big bats by throwing the slider down and away and jamming them with the sinker low and inside. Batters have hit only .137 against the slider this season with very few extra base hits. Corbin can get into serious trouble when he starts experimenting with his changeup. He hasn’t thrown the pitch to a left handed hitter all season, but righties are taking advantage of it when they see it. They are hitting .381 against the change with a slugging percentage of .810; that is…extreme.

Wednesday, June 22nd – First Pitch 4:07 PM ET

J.A. Happ (8-3, 3.41 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (4-5, 4.44 ERA) 

Happ followed up two poor starts with a stellar one against the Phillies last week. In his previous two, Happ had allowed 10 runs in 12 innings of work, not what the team has come to expect out of the ‘new’ J.A. Happ. Last start helped right the ship, as J.A. went seven innings allowing no earned runs (one run) while giving up only three hits all afternoon. It appears Happ has been changing his pitching philosophy slightly as the club gets deeper into the season. Happ has gradually begun to throw less cutters (down to 10% for June) and more and more sinkers (38% this month). It probably doesn’t hurt that on a bi-nightly basis, Happ watches Sanchez and Stroman throw sinker after sinker, inducing ground ball after ground ball. As a result, Happ has generated ground balls 45% of the time this season, eclipsing his previous career high.

Robbie Ray is in his 3rd year in the league and is still only 24 years of age. He showcases excellent movement on a lot of his pitches but struggles mightily to find the zone with any sort of consistency. Prior to Saturday’s tilt, Ray has walked four batters per nine innings; ranking in the bottom-10 across the MLB. Ray has a similar repertoire to Corbin but he throws a curveball every once in a while as well. At this point in his career, only his fourseam fastball is above average, according to FanGraphs. Any pitcher who struggles with control and leans heavily on his fastball to get them through an outing, likely doesn’t want to be matched up against the Toronto Blue Jays. The main power hitters in the Jays lineup love to feast on fastballs and if they are consistently getting into hitters counts, than it could be a long afternoon for the Diamondbacks and a short one for Robbie Ray. However, Ray has generated a 21% whiff rate on his slider this season. If he is able to get ahead in counts and throw the out pitch, his slider, on the outside edge, then he could find tremendous success against the Jays, particularly against those who have been susceptible to the breaking ball this year.

Additions and Subtractions

While the Blue Jays were certainly saddened to Jose Bautista to the disabled list, they were able to welcome back another key cog in the batting lineup. Troy Tulowitzki returned to play against Baltimore, and even hit a home run in his second game back. If he can continue to hit the way he was just before going down, this offense may not dip much at all with the loss of their star right fielder. Andy Burns, who was originally recalled for the NL park half of the Phillies series, has been sent back to the minors to make room for Tulo.

They Dbacks recently welcomed back Shelby Miller, who had spent a short time on the disabled list. The Diamondbacks expect a lot of Miller, but he will not pitch in this series (he started Monday). Infielder Brandon Drury was sent to the minors to make room on the roster. It wasn’t all good news though, as Arizona lost cleanup hitter David Peralta to a back injury (he will have an MRI  Tuesday). They have recalled Socrates Brito to take his spot and to play center field.

Keep an Eye On

Booming Blue Jay Bats

June 21st may be the first official day of summer, but the Blue Jays hitters have been red hot all month. Since June 1, the Blue Jays are hitting .266/.356/.514 as a team. The .870 OPS ranks second in baseball to the first place Orioles. Leading the charge of late are Josh Donaldson, who has gotten over a small May slump, Edwin Encarnacion, and Michael Saunders. Kevin Pillar has also followed suit of late, hitting .358/.404/.698 since June with five home runs.

Tulo-Travis Team

Despite being on the team since just before the trade deadline last year, Troy Tulowitzki has actually only shared the field with Devon Travis twice in total. If the two of them can stay healthy, this team offense could absolutely take off. We could also see some very pretty double plays, as Travis has extremely quick hands to match Tulo’s impressive range.

The Snake’s Tail

While the Diamondbacks bullpen is rather mediocre as a whole (their 4.31 DRA ranks 19th in the league), the tail end of their bullpen can be quite good. Daniel Hudson and Jake Barrett are particularly tough, and submariner Brad Ziegler has successfully converted 43 consecutive save opportunities, which is the seventh most ever (Grant Balfour is sixth on the list with 44).

Probable Lineup

Diamondbacks

Blue Jays

1 Jean Segura – 2B 1 Ezequiel Carerra – RF
2 Jake Lamb – 3B 2 Josh Donaldson – 3B
3 Paul Goldschmidt – 1B 3 Edwin Encarnacion – DH
4 Wellington Castillo – C 4 Michael Saunders – LF
5 Peter O’Brien – LF 5 Justin Smoak – 1B
6 Socrates Brito – RF 6 Troy Tulowitzki – SS
7 Yasamany Tomas – DH 7 Russell Martin – C
8 Nick Ahmed – SS 8 Kevin Pillar – CF
9 Michael Bourn – CF 9 Devon Travis – 2B

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

The Jays finally got an off day Monday, which they sorely needed, so the full lineup and bullpen should be rested. They really want to take both games here, to get back onto the winning track, but a split would be acceptable before heading back on the road. The Jays don’t return back home until June 30 against the Indians.

Lead Photo: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

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1 comment on “Slithering into Summer: Diamondbacks Series Preview”

Arjonn

Does the DBacks shown with two CFs and no RF indicate a strong tendency to shift with two LHPs set to face the Jays’ RHBs? ;p

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