Back in March, I wrote extensively about how the Blue Jays could keep Aaron Sanchez in the rotation all year. Since then, the team has only somewhat behaved as if they wanted to limit his innings at all. Drew Hutchison has made a single spot start, resulting in Sanchez starting on the seventh day instead of the fifth, and the Jays have manipulated the rotation to give him extra rest one other time for the same result. Meanwhile, John Gibbons – who sometimes seems as if he ought to be wearing a t-shirt that says “I (heart) relief pitcher Aaron Sanchez” – is only too happy to let Sanchez pitch into the seventh inning and beyond. It’s almost as if he’s rushing Sanchez towards whatever point the team decides it’s unwise for him to continue starting, from a physical point of view.
Gibbons (whom I actually love, to be clear), opined in several different settings last week that the team was absolutely going to move Sanchez at some point, it was just a matter of when. You’d think that if he was really concerned, he’d just simply cap Sanchez at six innings per start. Doing so would have saved the team eleven innings pitched so far. True, they might have won fewer games, but they might win fewer games by burning him through 180 or so innings then replacing him in the rotation. Is the goal to maximize wins? Then this discussion is pointless – let him start. If it’s to handle Sanchez with kid gloves, then do so consistently.
Nevertheless, Gibbons also allowed the possibility of something intriguing – the idea of Sanchez spending a term in the bullpen and then moving back to the rotation. This is a radical idea and I don’t think the team would actually risk it. However, I submit that it could work (on paper at least) but the best time to do that, if indeed they are considering it, is essentially right now. I had originally conceived this article as an illustration of how it could work on paper, but I quickly discovered that the best window for executing the plan was already upon us. It’s not something that is done cavalierly, though, and if this was their target they would have been preparing for the move for weeks, and they’ve given no indication they are about to act. It seems pointless, then, to describe “what might have been” so I looked for anther window of opportunity, and essentially there’s only one.
So as I did almost three months ago, let us walk through the remaining schedule and see what how to get the most out of Sanchez. To be crystal clear, I’m not advocating for Sanchez to go to the bullpen at all. I’m merely discussing what would be the best way to do it if you, as does the Blue Jays management, feel that you must.
Before you begin, you have to decide what cap you are shooting for. While the team has said repeatedly that they will rely on biometrics and other fatigue related indicators to manage Sanchez, not just or even mainly innings, an outside observer doesn’t have access to that so we’re forced to substitute an innings limit in the manner that teams may have done in the past. In years previous, it has been popular to suggest that for pitchers under 25, an increase in innings of 30-40 over the previous career high has a wise cutoff (the so called “Verducci Rule”) and for some that was revised to 30-40% increase. Even though there’s not really any valid science to support the idea, as both Shapiro and Atkins have noted in various places, the concept has gained currency among fans. Given Sanchez’s previous career high is 133, +40% puts him at 186.2 – which I’ll round upwards to 190. Usually when you hear anyone (outside of Jays management – who refuse to go into any details) discuss limiting Sanchez, they express it in terms of an innings limit of 180-190 total.
This is complicated since you have to consider the playoffs. If you were not playing for the post-season, a radical experiment wouldn’t even be discussed. Assuming 19 potential postseason games, we’ll set aside three starts/18 IP and come back to that later.
To this point, Sanchez has started 14 games and accumulated 91.1 IP, which works out to an average of 6.5 IP per start. At that average he could make 29 starts “in the bank” to stay under 190 IP, or 15 more. Of course, during the bullpen tour he’ll accumulate innings as well, but I’ll get to that. It seems clear at this point they will leave him in the rotation through the All-Star break, which is consistent with the schedule I’m about to propose. If they maintain the rotation as is, that burns off four more starts, though there is a way they could make it three without much effort, by simply pushing his next start back from June 24th to June 26th or later, which you’d think if their concerns were serious they would want to do. So, at worst, he hits the break with 18 starts and about 117 IP. What then?
For this to work with a minimal impact on the team, the time to do it is when you can maximize the off days. Every start Drew Hutchison (whom I believe in) makes in place of Sanchez decreases the chance the Blue Jays win that game so you want to hold those to a minimum. Speaking of, the major reason that “now” is the best time, over the window I will examine, is that right now all six potential starters are healthy – so use Hutch while he’s not needed elsewhere. If the Jays plan to use the latter window and one of the other pitchers needs a visit to the disabled list at the wrong time, you might face a very unpleasant prospect which would force them to scrap the Sanchez Experiment.
So, here’s how it works. The Jays are blessed with three off days in July after the break, and six over the course of the first six weeks of the second half. This is key. With thoughtful management of the rotation, and four starts by Hutchison, you can push Sanchez’s 19th start, and first since the break, all the way back to August 27th. If Sanchez rejoins to rotation at that point, he’ll finish the season with six second-half starts, or 24 on the season. At his current average, that’s ~156 IP in the regular season, with 30 more “in the bank” before we get close to our theoretical cap. Assume four playoff starts of six IP each and you at 180 in all. Ah, but what about those innings in the bullpen?
The task there is to build him back up as you move through August, and shorten up his first couple of starts upon his return to progress in a way reminiscent of Spring training. So, if he pitches no more than one inning no more than every other day until his last three bullpen appearances, then progresses (according to pitch count) through one plus, then two, then three IP (on longer rest), then he should end up with 18-20 inning of relief work. Then in his first few starts you go four innings, then five, then six, you’ll “give back” four or five of those innings which brings the grand total to somewhere between 190 and 200 innings.
At the risk of repeating myself, I’m not at all convinced they will do this, and I’m not in favor of taking him out of the rotation at all unless his effectiveness regresses to the point that Hutch can be expected to do better. All of this “uncharted territory” on steroids. It has the potential, even if successful in preserving Sanchez’s health, of impacting the team’s chance of winning the games he needs to leave early, for example.
But it can be done and hit the target number of innings. And while I’m not in favor of moving Sanchez out of the rotation, there is a part of me that would be fascinated to see the Toronto management do something so bold.
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I suspect there’s a degree of “play it by ear” in terms of how Sanchez will be used. One thing, as noted, is that it seems likely the Jays have more and better info than we fans do on how his body is holding up / wearing down.
Another consideration is how the team is looking in the standings. If they stay in a multi-way race for the wildcards, how important is it to save his arm for the playoffs, which they might not reach or where he might not start or pitch anyway (if, for example, they lose the wildcard game) vs. giving themselves the best chance of getting into the playoffs with him in the pen or unavailable?