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Baseball is Back: Rays Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

April 3rd – April 6th

For the first time in 163 days, real Blue Jays baseball is back, and it’s so incredibly exciting. Even for this first series alone, there’s so much to look forward to: Marcus Stroman’s quick pitch, J.A. pppp’s return to the team, and Aaron Sanchez’s return to starting. With that said, it may not end up as the most successful series for the Jays all season, as they generally have trouble in Tampa. That was certainly true in 2015, as Jays lost the season series to the Rays 9-10. With a revamped rotation and a strong back of the bullpen, this Toronto team will look to change that pattern in 2016.

Pitching Matchups:

April 3rd – First Pitch 4:05 PM ET

Marcus Stroman vs. Chris Archer

With all of the talk surrounding him, it seems like Stroman has been here forever, but in actuality he’s only thrown 157.2 IP for the Blue Jays. Despite that fact, he’s not only been cited as the outright ace of this team, but as a true ace in the league. Based solely on his lack of experience, that could be interpreted as an outrageous claim; the guy hasn’t even pitched a full season in the big leagues. However, Stroman isn’t your everyday pitcher. On Friday, Pedro Martinez echoed that sentiment, anointing that, “Marcus Stroman’s going to be better than [he] was.” For any pitcher, that’s going to be some lofty praise, but if anyone’s going to do it, it’s going to be the guy with the most tools in the shed: Marcus Stroman. At any one point last season, he threw up to six distinctly different pitches, all effectively, and all for strikes. Not even the otherworldly Clayton Kershaw can make that claim. On top of that, this Spring Training, Stroman experimented with a ‘quick pitch’ that he could add to his repertoire for this season. On Opening Day, when we (hopefully) see him dominate the Rays, it’ll be interesting to see which of his many pitches he uses to do it.

Chris Archer doesn’t have the same praise from Pedro Martinez, but he’s no slouch himself. By WARP, he was the 8th best pitcher in baseball last season, which contributed to his placing 5th in Cy Young voting. After two seasons now of consistent top performance, he too has cemented himself as one of baseball’s younger aces. However, while he and Stroman may share the occasional ace tag, they’re almost polar opposites in their approaches to pitching. As previously mentioned, Stroman will be working with 6+ pitches this season, but Archer only really uses two. In 2015, 93% of the pitches that he threw were either a four-seam fastball or a slider. He throws those two pitches very effectively, but if the Jays can work out the timing, then they should be able to score against Archer early.

April 4th – First Pitch 7:10 PM ET

R.A. Dickey vs. Drew Smyly

Well, he’s back. The 41-year-old Dickey had his $12 million option picked up by the Blue Jays while also rehabbing from off-season knee surgery. All spring he has been insistent that the surgery, combined with a weight loss program over the winter, will help him pitch more effectively and start the season off successfully, something he hasn’t done often. He had a 5.77 ERA over the first two months of the season in 2015, while the last four saw him put up an ERA of just 3.11. Pitching well against the Rays in his first start could go a long way to helping him get comfortable and settled early on. Last year, he faced the team five times, with only one of those being awful, on April 24th when he gave up 7 earned runs in less than five full innings. However, his other 4 starts saw him pitch 26 innings and only give up 8 runs total. With the Rays returning most of the same players as last season, Dickey will try to build upon those late season victories.

Drew Smyly is very good at baseball, when healthy. Unfortunately for the Rays, he wasn’t all that healthy in 2015, missing two thirds of the season due to an injury to his left shoulder. He wound up only making 12 starts, most of which were great and contributed to his final season numbers looking pretty terrific with an ERA of 3.11 and a K-BB% of 20.7%. He faced the Blue Jays once in 2015, though only 4 of the players who played that day will be facing him this time around. As a lefty, he’s the type of pitcher the Blue Jays bats usually crush, and Smyly gave up a not-so-good 1.49 home runs per nine innings in 2015, so power could be on display in this game.

April 5th – First Pitch 7:10 PM ET

Aaron Sanchez vs. Jake Odorizzi

So this is happening, right? Aaron Sanchez is going to start, and if Spring Training is any indication, it’s going to be good. The tall 23-year-old has added over 20 pounds of muscle this off-season in his quest to make the Blue Jays rotation, and with it has come added excitement over his “stuff”. The fastball was sitting in the upper 90’s last month, the curve was breaking extra hard, and the changeup fell below 90 mph. That last bit is very important, as Sanchez has had his struggles with lefties in the past, and establishing a changeup that darts away from left handed batters could go a long way to improving his numbers. Another bit to watch is his control. He walked 37 batters as a starter last year in just 66 innings, and although he showed the ability to limit the damage with his groundball inducing ability, putting fewer runners on base, like he did this spring when he walked just 3 batters, will help him reach his incredibly high ceiling.

When it comes to back end starters, Jake Odorizzi does a pretty good job. However, his success is limited by his arsenal, which lacks a third pitch and impacts his ability to get hitters out. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and is complemented by a mid-80’s changeup with a lot of movement. However, beyond that, it’s all average stuff that just doesn’t play in the big leagues. Against a lineup like the Blue Jays, he’ll have to mix it up in order to keep them off balance. Last year, he faced the team three times, and except for a dazzling performance on April 13th which saw him go 8 innings and allow only one run, he struggled. Falling behind hitters caused his problems in those other two games, so look for him to attack early with his fastball and changeup mix to get ahead.

April 6th – First Pitch 1:10 PM ET

J.A. Happ vs. Matt Moore

After the Blue Jays signed Happ to a three year, $36 million contract this offseason, there were (rightfully) many people who pointed to the second half of 2015 as the justification. They’re not wrong, as Happ did produce a 24.6 K% and 6.5 BB% en route to a 2.95 ERA. However, it has been a more gradual transition. As  far back as his last season with the Jays, Happ had started to cut the poor walk rate that plagued him earlier in his career. With that said, it will be interesting to see if Ray Searage’s mastery continues to help Happ through 2016. In order to find out, watch for how often Happ throws his fourseam fastball in this game, in addition to how often hitters chase it. Those were the keys to Happ’s increased success last summer.

Like Happ, Matt Moore is also a left handed pitcher, but that might be where the comparisons stop. While Happ’s fastball velocity hovers around league average, Moore’s velocity is up with the best of them. As well, while Happ has steadily improved over the past two seasons, Moore has either been injured or has struggled to regain form. Over 12 starts last season, he put up a horrid 5.43 ERA. With all of their big right handed bats, the Jays should have no trouble knocking Matt Moore out of the game early.

Additions and Subtractions

Over the offseason, the Jays lost their ace in David Price, but may have ended up with a better rotation overall. Now, in addition to the three returning starters at the top of the rotation (Stroman, Dickey, and Estrada), the Jays have Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Gavin Floyd, Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez, and maybe even Franklin Morales to rely on for the rest of the team’s starts. In addition, Canada’s team now has three of MLB’s better relievers patrolling the back of the bullpen after adding Drew Storen to compliment Roberto Osuna and Brett Cecil. In contrast to the Jays, the Rays did substantially less in the way of targeted improvements. However, they weren’t without wheeling and dealing of their own this offseason. In late January, the Rays flipped their presumed closer Jake McGee to the Rockies for sweet swinging outfielder Corey Dickerson.

In terms of subtractions, each of the Jays and Rays will be without a few key players as the season kicks off. The Jays will be missing their starting 2B Devon Travis and their LOOGY Aaron Loup. Meanwhile, the Rays will be missing top starter Alex Cobb and closer Brad Boxberger.

Keep an Eye On

Centerfield Defense

The Kevin’s, Kiermaier and Pillar, are the two best defensive centre fielders in baseball, and they’ll be matching up for the first time in 2016 in this series. Last year, the two combined to be worth 44.2 runs above average defensively according to FRAA, 31.2 of which belonged to the Rays’ Kevin. Aside from Archer and Stroman, all of the starters in this series give up more than the league average (35%) when it comes to fly balls, so both of these defensive superstars will be active this series.

Tropicana Field Magic

The Blue Jays don’t do well in Tampa Bay, it’s just a fact at this point. In 2015, the team’s best season in over 20 years, they still only managed to win three games and have a measly .333 winning percentage at the Trop. What the games tend to have in common though is that they are always entertaining – close games, big home runs, and walkoffs – they have them all. Maybe the breaking of the curse is a slow process, and the Blue Jays will do better this season, but if any balls take funky hops or the roof causes a play to fall in the Rays favour, just know the curse is behind it.

Edwin Encarnacion

Players always say that Spring Training is too long, but Edwin Encarnacion has taken that to the extreme this season by getting zero official spring training at-bats. Of course, he has played in a few games this past week on the minor league side of things, but because of an abscessed tooth and an oblique injury, he hasn’t faced big league pitching yet. The minor leaguers are good, but they aren’t Chris Archer good, so it will be an adjustment for Encarnacion. A notorious slow starter, it might be an even rougher that usual April for Encarnacion.

Probable Lineup

Blue Jays

Rays

Kevin Pillar – CF Logan Forsythe – 2B
Josh Donaldson – 3B Logan Morrison – 1B
Jose Bautista – RF Evan Longoria – 3B
Edwin Encarnacion – DH Corey Dickerson – DH
Troy Tulowitzki – SS Desmond Jennings – LF
Chris Colabello – 1B Brad Miller – SS
Michael Saunders – LF Steven Souza – RF
Russell Martin – C Kevin Kiermaier – CF
Ryan Goins – 2B Hank Conger – C

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

Whatever happens, baseball is back, and that’s great. Obviously winning would be preferable, but just seeing these guys on the field again is sure to be cause for celebration. The Rays are going to be tough matchup all year with their strong pitching and defense, and getting off to a good start, even though it’s just April, can never be a bad thing.

Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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2 comments on “Baseball is Back: Rays Series Preview”

Sandcastle Kid

Does Happ have one of the “one of the slower fastballs in the league?” Does he really?

Arjonn

He was right around MLB average last year, averaging ~91.5

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