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	<title>Toronto &#187; Red Sox</title>
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		<title>The Wonderful, Useless Miracle of Mike Bolsinger&#8217;s Four-Strikeout Inning</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/23/the-wonderful-useless-miracle-of-mike-bolsingers-four-strikeout-inning/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Jul 2017 11:05:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rachael McDaniel]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Bolsinger]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12511</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the very late hours of July 18th, or perhaps the very early hours of July 19th, something weird happened at Fenway Park. Strikeout No. 1: Mitch Moreland (Swinging) It was strange that Mike Bolsinger took the mound for the Jays in the bottom of the 13th, because it was strange that a bottom of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the very late hours of July 18th, or perhaps the very early hours of July 19th, something weird happened at Fenway Park.</span></p>
<p><b>Strikeout No. 1: Mitch Moreland (Swinging)</b></p>
<p>It was strange that Mike Bolsinger took the mound for the Jays in the bottom of the 13th, because it was strange that a bottom of the 13th happened at all. Both teams, despite being tied at four runs apiece, had hits in the double digits (the Jays had 14, the Red Sox 12). Both teams had left small armies of men on base (the Jays ten, the Red Sox nine.) When the Jays had runners on the corners and nobody out in the 8th, they had a 74.1 percent win expectancy; when they claimed a one-run lead in the top of the 11th, they had an 84.2 percent win expectancy.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Jays, and for the beleaguered dozens of fans who stayed up to see the game through to the end, just because something is likely doesn’t mean it’ll happen. Most of the time, if you have runners on the corners and nobody out, you will score a run &#8211; but Kevin Pillar grounded into a double play and Tulo didn’t break for home. Most of the time, when you have a one-run lead and Roberto Osuna comes to close out the game, you will win &#8211; but Sandy Leon bunted so poorly that it sailed over Josh Donaldson’s head, and Mookie Betts plays for the Red Sox. You had to figure that the game was over when Mike Bolsinger came out to pitch the bottom of the 12th, but he retired the top of the Red Sox lineup in order.</p>
<p>So the game went on to the bottom of the 13th, and Bolsinger came out for his second inning of high-leverage relief. After throwing a first-pitch cutter for a strike, Bolsinger threw four pitches nowhere near the zone &#8211; two sailing high, two nearly hitting Moreland.</p>
<p>Moreland swung at three of them.</p>
<p><b>Strikeout No. 2: Jackie Bradley (swinging); wild pitch by Mike Bolsinger, Jackie Bradley to 1st</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Three strikes, you’re out. It’s the most basic, elemental truth of baseball. It’s a frequently-used metaphor in common parlance. It’s in “Take Me Out To the Ballgame,” for crying out loud. If anything in baseball is inviolable, if anything is sacred and solid and certain, surely it should be this &#8211; the most fundamental conflict in the game, the battle between pitcher and batter, the one of the three true outcomes that results in an out. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But this is baseball. Baseball is beloved for its quirks, its propensity for freak occurrences. The introduction of the automatic intentional walk was greeted by grumbling because it took away the </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">possibility </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">that something weird might happen, even if only one time out of a thousand. People are reluctant to change anything about baseball, which leaves us with rules like the uncaught third strike rule.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The uncaught third strike rule is pure baseball nonsense, an oddity that most often results in nothing more than an extra five seconds added for the catcher to throw down to first. A more efficient sport would have excised this peculiarity long ago. The rule is a vestige of baseball’s </span><a href="http://sabr.org/research/dropped-third-strike-life-and-times-rule"><span style="font-weight: 400">very earliest incarnatio</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"><a href="http://sabr.org/research/dropped-third-strike-life-and-times-rule">ns</a>; in today’s game,the rule follows no logic and serves no purpose. If a pitch is so wild that even a major league catcher can’t corral it, why should the batter be given a possible second life for swinging? And if the rule penalizes pitchers or catchers for being wild or not receiving the ball well, why is it only on the third strike that this penalty comes into effect?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">When this rule does result in a baserunner, though, when the batter busts it down the line to first or the catcher just can’t find the ball, it warps the very fabric of the sport. No longer do one, two, three strikes mean that you’re out at the old ball game. The umpire called strike three, and yet the batter stands safely at first. Still a </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">strikeout</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">, but not an </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">out</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p>
<p>Does that make any sense?</p>
<p>The pitch that Jackie Bradley flailed at for strike three was not only so far inside that it nearly hit him, the place where it eventually came to rest was on top of the screen behind home plate. It is hard to fail more profoundly as a batter than Bradley did on that strike-three swing. And yet there he stood at first, the beneficiary of a momentary lapse in the structure that holds a game of baseball together. He had been given a new life within the inning.</p>
<p>In an extra-inning game, any baserunner for the home team seems like a herald of imminent doom. And in a game which had been prolonged by unlikely tomfoolery, it seemed fitting that the final blow would be struck by a baserunner who reached via strikeout. The end was near.</p>
<p><b>Strikeout No. 3: Christian Vazquez (swinging)</b></p>
<p>Bolsinger retired Christian Vazquez on three pitches.</p>
<p><b>Strikeout No. 4: Deven Marrero (swinging)</b></p>
<p>Mike Bolsinger is not a very good major league pitcher. He has appeared in 46 major-league games over the past four seasons, and 21 of those games were in 2015, when he played for the Dodgers and had a 3.62 ERA. Outside of that year, he’s never had an ERA under 5.50. He’s fine as rotation depth, maybe as a mop-up guy. Nothing special.</p>
<p>You wouldn’t have known that from watching him strike out Deven Marrero. Marrero watched a cutter in the middle of the zone go by, fouled off two curveballs, and went down swinging on a slider. Bradley never took off from first because he never had a chance to. The first two strikeouts were aided by wild swings, but the second. Vazquez and Marrero were overwhelmed. Neither of them are good hitters, but it still felt unexpected. Uncanny, even.</p>
<p>Only 80 pitchers in the history of baseball have ever pitched a four-strikeout inning, and Mike Bolsinger, a bad pitcher on a last-place team, became one of them.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays are bad, and they aren’t getting better. This is the reality that we’re faced with. We are well over halfway through the season, and these players are old and tired. No matter what set of statistics you look at, no matter how optimistic you are naturally inclined to be, we are watching a team that has been in last place since the second day of the season, and that has shown precious few signs of life. They are 42-51. For the Jays to turn this season around, they would need to go on a miraculous run &#8211; the kind of miraculous run composed of many tiny, strange miracles strung together, that makes it seem as though reality has changed, and leaves you wondering if what you are seeing is real. Mike Bolsinger’s four-strikeout bottom of the 13th, in a game that had been delayed by rain and that should have ended several times over, felt like one of those tiny, strange miracles. It had taken a rain delay, a bunt pop-up to no one, a two-out single, and probably a dozen double plays to create Bolsinger&#8217;s four-strikeout inning, not to mention the oddity that is the uncaught third strike rule itself, but it <em>happened</em>. Bolsinger stalked off the mound, fist clenched, knowing the uniqueness of what he&#8217;d just achieved &#8211; probably the best inning he&#8217;s ever pitched as a major leaguer. It was bizarre. It was amazing. And you felt like maybe, just maybe&#8230;</p>
<p>In the bottom of the 15th, Bolsinger hung a curveball to Hanley Ramirez, who sent it over the monster.</p>
<p>The Red Sox, a good team, won. The Blue Jays, a bad team, lost. And Bolsinger&#8217;s tiny, strange miracle remained just that.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 47: Seeing Red (Sox)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/08/artificial-turf-wars-ep-47-seeing-red-sox/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Mar 2017 11:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way. Episode 47 Matt Kory of Baseball Prospectus stops by to discuss the Red Sox as part of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way.</p>
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<strong><br />
Episode 47</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/mattymatty2000" target="_blank">Matt Kory</a> of Baseball Prospectus stops by to discuss the Red Sox as part of the AL East preview series. He discusses the issues related to David Price&#8217;s health, compares the Jays rotation to the one in Boston, and looks at which hitters are likely to get better, and which ones are likely to regress. Greg and Josh also discuss the lingering injury to Devon Travis, the rumors surrounding Brett Lawrie, the spring debuts of Steve Pearce and Troy Tulowitzki, Angel Pagan rumours, and Josh&#8217;s observations from Florida. They also answer listener questions, and give out a Do-Over and a Gold Star.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/871/show_9871251_2017_03_08_04_29_34.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/871/show_9871251_2017_03_08_04_29_34.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
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<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Rotation Might be Just as Good as Boston&#8217;s</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/the-blue-jays-rotation-might-be-just-as-good-as-bostons/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2016 19:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[It sounds crazy. The Red Sox just traded for Chris Sale. Rick Porcello just won the Cy Young Award (even though he shouldn’t have). David Price could be their third starter. That rotation should scare every team in the American League. And yet, I’m here to say that it might not even be the best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It sounds crazy. The Red Sox just <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chris-sale.html" target="_blank">traded for Chris Sale</a>. Rick Porcello just won the Cy Young Award (even though he shouldn’t have). David Price could be their third starter. That rotation should scare every team in the American League. And yet, I’m here to say that it <em>might</em> not even be the best in the division.</p>
<p>The simple way would be to just stick Sale on the Red Sox from last year and see how things would turn out with the projected five starters based on their work in Toronto/Boston.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/pitchers.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8239" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/pitchers.png" alt="pitchers" width="704" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Hooray! The Blue Jays pitchers have the better ERA! It’s over!</p>
<p>Obviously you come here for better analysis than that, and some of those numbers are very cherry-picked (no bad Pittsburgh Liriano, no good San Diego Pomeranz), but it actually provides a decent starting point. The Jays pitchers DID outperform their Red Sox counterparts. It’s a matter of whether they can do it again.</p>
<p>The Jays pitchers may not have the sexy names, or the big time strikeout to walk ratios, but they possess traits that have actually made them really, really good at run prevention. While Boston does have a bunch of big time strikeout pitchers, some of their arms did show a few red flags that hurt their numbers and could carry over into 2017.</p>
<p>I’m going to break down each club’s expected rotations to look at how they project out for the upcoming season.</p>
<h2>Blue Jays</h2>
<p>It’s not hard to see the extreme upside in the Jays rotation. Four of the five starters have received Cy Young votes in the last few years (sorry Marcus!), and they led the league in ERA as a group just last year. They’re also replacing R.A. Dickey’s mediocre production with Liriano.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, on the surface, those numbers up top also scream for some potential regression. The only pitcher with an above league-average K/9 was Marco Estrada. Four of them had opposing BABIPs under .270. Those same four guys had DRAs well above their ERAs (You’re doing better here, Marcus!). However, there are reasons to believe each of those guys can continue to outpitch their peripherals.</p>
<h4>Marco Estrada</h4>
<p>When it comes to regressions candidates, the first person people always point to is the soon-to-be 33 year old Estrada. One would think that back to back seasons where he has stymied AL East foes with his fastball-changeup combo would convince people that he is for real, especially since the strikeouts came back. However, his league-low BABIP of .234 was 2.3 standard deviations away from the league mean among starters (.292) in 2016. That makes two years in a row that he has been extremely far from the norm in the category (.221 and 3.1 SDs in 2015). Typically, that screams “good luck” that won’t be repeated, or suggests that a team had otherworldly defence.</p>
<p>We can dismiss the latter effect right away. While the Jays do have one of the game’s best defenders in Kevin Pillar (21 DRS), his impact was almost completely negated by having two of the league’s worst everyday outfielders on his flank in Jose Bautista (-8 DRS) and Michael Saunders (-11 DRS). The Jays have good infielders, but Estrada doesn&#8217;t see much benefit with his 35 percent groundball rate.</p>
<p>As for the “luck” factor, as I broke down <a title="How Marco Estrada Dominated Baseball’s First Half" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/08/how-marco-estrada-dominated-baseballs-first-half/" target="_blank">here</a>, <a title="Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/" target="_blank">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">here</a>, Estrada’s unique “rise” on both his fourseam fastball and changeup led him to post a popup rate (16.2 percent) that was 3.7 standard deviations better than the MLB average. Those numbers are increases over his 2015 totals (14.5% and 3.1 SDs), but this actually makes sense with his increased movement.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8240" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>As his ball continues to fight gravity, his lazy flyballs increase which help him outpitch his peripheral stats. The fact that this skill can be easily identified suggests that it’s repeatable, and as such very little regression should be expected from Estrada. In fact, improved outfield defence could even improve the numbers for the “popup pitcher”.</p>
<h4>J.A. Happ</h4>
<p>Right after Estrada on the list of “he was just lucky” pitchers is 2016’s surprise Cy Young candidate:, J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>After bouncing around as a back of the rotation starter for years, Happ finally seemed to find himself after a 2015 deadline deal to Pittsburgh. Ray Searage worked with Happ to clean up his delivery, and he dominated for two months. He took things to another level in his return to Toronto, where he was able to post a career high in innings while posting a career-best (as a starter) 3.18 ERA.</p>
<p>Like Estrada, there is an identifiable reason for his success in outpitching his peripherals. Also like Estrada, Happ uses special fastball movement to generate favourable results.</p>
<p>Once again, you can <a title="How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball’s Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">read this in more depth here</a>, but J.A. Happ just happens to have a unique fastball. Or should I say set of fastballs. With a “rise” of 10.2” on his fourseamer and 5.2” on his sinker, J.A. Happ gets more separation between the two pitches than any other qualified starter (500+ of each pitch) in the game.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8241" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (6)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>This means that even if the hitter guessed fastball, the unpredictability of the movement still had him at a disadvantage. By combining the two offerings effectively, Happ gets grounders when he needed to (a career high 21 double play grounders), while also jumping the swing and miss rate on his fourseam by over nine percentage points from his previous average as a full-time starter.</p>
<p>This was his first season doing this, so it’s possible there could be some slight regression coming, but the unique nature of his arsenal should mitigate the overall effect. Like Estrada, improved corner OF defence could also help Happ&#8217;s overall numbers.</p>
<h4>Francisco Liriano</h4>
<p>Francisco Liriano has the widest range of outcomes. I could tell you he’s going to be the best starter on the team, or the worst, and I guarantee I’d get a large chunk of people who would agree with me either way.</p>
<p>Where there should be little disagreement is that Liriano is going to take a small step backwards from his time with the Jays at the end of the season. His 2.92 ERA and 2.9 BB/9 would be the best marks he has put up in since his early career in Minnesota when people viewed him as the next Johan Santana.</p>
<p>There’s also the fact that he was absolutely shelled last year in Pittsburgh. The interesting thing there is that the outliers were in the completely opposite direction. His control went in the complete opposite direction (5.5 BB/9). Now, that’s not exactly a crazy notion when it comes to the notoriously wild Liriano, but his walk rate over the previous three years had stabilized and was down to 3.8 per nine from his five plus years with the Twins and White Sox. The Jays bet on that being the real guy and hit in a big way.</p>
<p>It wasn’t just pure regression that the Jays were betting on though. Take a look at the following chart (Pittsburgh on top):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/liriano.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8242" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/liriano.png" alt="liriano" width="640" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>When Russell Martin was Liriano’s catcher with the Pirates, he made a point of having the power lefty use his changeup liberally. Over the last couple of years that has declined, before cratering in favour of the fastball last year. When Liriano came to Toronto, Martin made him start throwing it again and his command improved. It’ll be interesting to see if he can make that continue.</p>
<p>The safe money would be on Liriano pitching much more like the player he was from 2013-2015 (3.26 ERA, DRAs of 2.90, 3.56, and 3.22). That’s probably a 3.50-3.75 ERA guy in the AL East with this team’s infield defence and Liriano’s groundball rates (52% or higher the last 4 years).</p>
<h4>Marcus Stroman</h4>
<p>Marcus Stroman’s results were pretty bad. His 4.37 ERA was barely better than R.A. Dickey, he averaged over a hit allowed per inning, and his strikeout rate was only 7.3 per nine. However, like Liriano’s Pirates numbers, there are reasons to expect much better numbers from Stroman in 2017. His DRA alone (a team-best 3.43) suggests there was more.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman debuted a new sinker when he returned in 2015 that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-discovered-roy-halladays-sinker/" target="_blank">had people comparing him to Roy Halladay</a>.</p>
<p>Given the extreme movement on the pitch—<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=SI&amp;ds=vmov&amp;lim=500" target="_blank">it has the most sink in all of baseball among qualified starters</a>— Stroman started the season featuring it heavily. Three months in and the results weren&#8217;t good: his ERA was 5.33 and his K/9 was 6.3. The sinker had a ton of movement, but he threw it so often that players could sit on it. As a high contact offering, he was just getting killed with balls going through holes.</p>
<p>He forgot that what made him partricularly special was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps" target="_blank">his possession of many plus pitches</a>. It seems someone reminded him of this fact when the calendar turned to July.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8243" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Starting in July, Stroman started throwing his slider a lot more, and then started featuring even more of his offerings as the season went on. With hitters no longer able to just sit on the same pitch, everything in his arsenal played up. For the rest of the season, his strikeout rate was a very respectable 8.3. When combined with his still extreme groundball rate, Stroman posted an ERA of 3.42, which was much closer to what people expected out of the diminutive hurler.</p>
<p>Given his previous success and the change in repertoire, it seems likely that this is much closer to the real Marcus Stroman than the player we saw in the first half of 2016.</p>
<h4>Aaron Sanchez</h4>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is a bit easier to explain. The 24 year old finally had his shackles removed and all he did was lead the American League in ERA. His <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sanchez-excited-about-total-transformation-of-his-body/" target="_blank">added bulk</a> and improved mechanics helped him reach a career high in innings (192) and lower his walk rate down to a very manageable three per nine.</p>
<p>The skill was always there, as Sanchez&#8217;s power sinker had made numerous hitters look extremely stupid. However, while he had always dominated same-sided hitters, the issue was his ability to get lefthanders out. In 2015, lefties hit the Californian righty to the tune of .282/.390/.488. That’s pretty bad. He certainly turned that around though. In 2016, they hit .217/.306/.352. That’s good.</p>
<p>The sinker is a pitch with pretty heavy platoon splits. When he was a reliever, Sanchez almost threw the two seamers exclusively. In 2016, he started expanding his repertoire, and it really <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/06/sanchez-versus-lefties-has-been-an-unexpected-kind-of-story/" target="_blank">helped him against southpaws</a>.</p>
<p>The two biggest differences were his curveball and the development of his changeup, but he also showed an increased willingness to pitch inside with his fastball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Sanchez-20151.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8246" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Sanchez-20151.png" alt="Sanchez 2015" width="600" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>The fastballs in combined with the breaking balls away made for a pitcher who could really keep lefties at bay. With his continued destruction of righties, Sanchez became a true top of the rotation pitcher.</p>
<p>He does still rely on getting outs on the ground, which is somewhat susceptible to random variance. As such that 3.00 ERA should regress some. Though Sanchez is still an elite arm, and he should be able to go to 220 innings this year if he has to, which is a huge plus for Toronto.</p>
<h2>BOSTON</h2>
<h4>Chris Sale</h4>
<p>Chris Sale is awesome. He’s the best pitcher on either of these two teams. I don’t think I need to spend a ton of time on him, but there are a few interesting notes.</p>
<p>First, he’s moving to a better hitters park. While Comiskey (the name changes so often I’m just using this) has historically been a hitters park, it actually played as a pitchers park the last few years. Meanwhile Fenway is as good of a hitters park as exists in the American League.</p>
<p>Sale’s extreme bat-missing abilities and control certainly help mitigate this effect, but they don’t eliminate it completely. His results once hitters make contact should go up a little bit.</p>
<p>There was also some thought that he whould also be helped by simply getting away from Dioner Navarro. As Jeff Sullivan wrote over at Fangraphs, Sale’s catchers killed him last year, and game calling won&#8217;t get much better with Sandy Leon being the plate. As a flyball pitcher, though, he will get some boost from the excellent work done by Jackie Bradley Jr. in that large center and right field in Boston.</p>
<p>All that said, Chris Sale is really good and we should expect him to be basically what he has been the last few years.</p>
<h4>Rick Porcello</h4>
<p>The reigning AL Cy Young winner took a huge step forward in 2015. He put up career-bests in tossed innings (223), ERA (3.15), K/BB (league-leading 5.91), and strikeouts (189). It was an incredible season, and while he didn’t deserve the award he won, he was one of the league’s best starters.</p>
<p>There wasn’t much of a change in repertoire that led to his monster season, but there was a change in approach.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/porcello-2015.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8245" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/porcello-2015.png" alt="porcello 2015" width="599" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>In 2016, Porcello started working heavily up in the zone with his fourseam fastball. This helped him get more swings and misses on the pitch (career best 15.5%), and also throw more strikes. It also turned Porcello into something of a flyball pitcher.</p>
<p>This made some sense with the expansive RF in Fenway, and came with more infield popups (though only slightly more than average), while not having a huge effect on his home run rate (the HR/FB was about average).</p>
<p>He probably falls back a bit just simply due to the extreme BABIP luck and no clear reason for him to fall all the way to .269 from a career .307 (he should drop some due to more FBs), but he’s likely going to be something close to a 3.50 ERA guy in 2017.</p>
<h4>David Price</h4>
<p>Price is by far the most interesting member of the Red Sox rotation. Expected to be a true number one pitcher and lead Boston to the World Series, Price stumbled in 2016. His 3.99 ERA was a career-worst which also came with all-time high hit and HR/9 rates. His strikeout rate of 8.9 was also a three year low. The strikeouts were high in the awful first half, but they were lower in his better second half. In short, he wasn’t “David Price.”</p>
<p>While there is obviously expected to be <em>some</em> regression back to his career levels, there was one very big red flag associated with Mr. Price.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8247" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="883" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Price’s velocity fell to an all-time low of 93.75 mph; that’s bad. It wasn’t some blip either as he started down and finished there.</p>
<p>To compensate, Price threw more cutters and changeups than ever before. They’re both very good offerings from the big lefty, but the need to reinvent himself during a season where he underperformed is a very worrying sign for Red Sox fans.</p>
<p>There are some indicators that would normally project that some regression will occur, but even those come with red flags. His HR/FB rose from a career 9.6 percent to 13.5, and his BABIP from .290 to .310. Those should suggest he was somewhat unlucky. Unfortunately, he was also hit a lot harder.</p>
<p>His overall exit velocity rose from 87.7 to 88.3, but he got crushed on line drives. His exit velocity on line drives and fly balls rose 1.5 mph from 90.9 to 92.4 mph. That’s going to lead to more hits and to more home runs.</p>
<p>While David Price track record suggests he&#8217;ll still regress a bit back to normal, if he doesn’t get that fastball back, he’s not an ace anymore.</p>
<h4>Drew Pomeranz</h4>
<p>2016 was Drew Pomeranz’ first year as a full-time MLB starter and he didn’t disappoint. Pomeranz put up a 3.32 ERA with two teams, a career-best strikeout rate of 9.8 per nine, and even made his first All-Star team. Aside from simply making more starts, there was a very clear reason for Pomeranz’ increased success: his curveball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8248" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>His nine inches of drop on the curveball is 10th most among starters. Among starters who thew over 500 of them, he’s third. Over 550, first. He has a good curveball, and he likes to use it. Hitters miss on 31.7 percent of the swings they take at Pomeranz&#8217;s curveball. With San Diego, batters hit just .201 with a .262 slugging percentage against the offering, so even when they did hit it, they couldn’t do much with it.</p>
<p>Drew Pomeranz absolutely dominated using this strategy with the Padres, but things didn’t go quite as swimmingly in Boston. While AL batters still missed the pitch at a 32 percent rate, they did damage when they connected, hitting .264/.364 against the hook. They also teed off on his other offerings, with an ISO of .314 against his fastball and .303 against the cutter.</p>
<p>It would be easier to decide what to do with Pomeranz if he had recovered fully at some point after the deal, or simply never recovered. After giving up 12 runs in his first 14 innings in a Red Sox uniform, Pomeranz posted a 2.70 ERA in August. Then September rolled around and he failed to pitch six innings in any of his four starts, allowing 12 runs in 16 innings, and giving up five home runs. His only two decent outings that month were on the road in San Diego and Tampa (who also play in a notorious pitcher&#8217;s park). In the postseason he only lasted 3 2/3 innings. He struck out seven, but he also gave up two runs including a home run.</p>
<p>Pomeranz may still be an elite strikeout pitcher, but he also gives up his share of flyballs, and that’s going to mean a lot of home runs in the AL East. Yes, he’ll benefit when the ball goes to RF, but as a left-handed pitcher who will face lots of righties, the ball will more often be heading towards the green monster.</p>
<p>His numbers will get better than the disastrous 4.59 showing with Boston, but they may not break the 4.00 barrier and almost certainly won&#8217;t top 3.50, and he hasn&#8217;t gone deep into games.</p>
<h4>Eduardo Rodriguez</h4>
<p>Here is the absolute best progression candidate for the Red Sox rotation. Rodriguez’ overall season numbers were bad, but the 23 year old was coming off an injury to his landing knee, and his early results skewed the results heavily.</p>
<p>In his first six starts, Rodriguez posted an 8.59 ERA across 29 1/3 innings. Across his last fourteen outings, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 9.2 K/9, and allowed more than three runs only twice. Now, normally you can’t just take out the first six starts of a guy’s season and proclaim greatness, but with Rodriguez there’s a very real reason: He couldn’t throw his best pitch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8249" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (4)" width="891" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>In the first few outings back from injury, Rodriguez’ slider wasn’t getting the horizontal movement he expected (graph on right), so he didn’t throw it (left). Without the slider in his arsenal, hitters were able to sit back on the fastball/changeup combo, and they hit the young southpaw hard. When he started throwing the slider again at the start of July, his performance immediately took off. This follows logically, since his miss rate on the pitch was 30.7 percent of swings until the end of the season.</p>
<p>He doesn’t generate many groundballs, so he’s likely always going to be susceptible to the home run, but Rodriguez should probably be expected to put up a mid 3.00s ERA in 2017: he’s good.</p>
<h4>CONCLUSION</h4>
<p>In the end, there&#8217;s few reasons to suggest that the Blue Jays starters as a whole would be any worse than they were in 2016, save for health. Marcus Stroman should be much better, while Liriano and Happ could fall back a little.</p>
<p>It’s a rotation that could have four pitchers at or around 3.50 ERAs, with one guy in the low 3.00 range (Sanchez). Three of those guys should be able to throw 200 or more innings (Stroman, Sanchez, and Estrada), while a couple of the lefties could top around 180-190 or so (Happ and Liriano).</p>
<p>On the Boston side, Sale is likely to be mostly the same guy he always has been, and Rodriguez should take a big leap. Pomeranz will improve on his Boston numbers, but likely not to his SD levels, Price should improve a bit, but not to his former ace levels. Porcello should take a tiny step back, but not a notable one.</p>
<p>It’s a rotation that could also have four pitchers at or around 3.50 ERAs, with one guy in the low 3.00 range (Sale). Three of the guys should be able to throw 200 or more innings (Price, Porcello, Sale), while a couple of the lefties could top around 180-190 (Pomeranz and Rodriguez).</p>
<p>Those sound kinda similar, don’t they? The Red Sox have the best guy (Sale), but the Jays could have three of the next four best (Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada vs Porcello and Price). Boston has more depth with Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz, which should help them as the injuries roll out. However, in the end, Boston and Toronto&#8217;s rotations are going to perform much closer than you&#8217;d think.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>From the Bar or the Harbour: Red Sox Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/27/from-the-bar-or-the-harbour-red-sox-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/27/from-the-bar-or-the-harbour-red-sox-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 May 2016 16:09:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3119</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Red Sox May 27th &#8211; May 29th The Blue Jays are coming home after a successful 5-2 road trip. Things looked uncertain at times, with an extra inning win pulled out of their hat in Minnesota, and a getting shut out on their first night in Yankee Stadium, however the overall results [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Red Sox</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">May 27th &#8211; May 29th</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are coming home after a successful 5-2 road trip. Things looked uncertain at times, with an extra inning win pulled out of their hat in Minnesota, and a getting shut out on their first night in Yankee Stadium, however the overall results were positive. The Jays haven&#8217;t really demonstrated a home field advantage this year. In fact, they are 9-13 at home and 15-12 on the road. The hope, of course, is that they will find their comfort zone sooner rather than later. The Red Sox are one of the toughest opponents in baseball, at 29-18 on the season, outscoring their opponents by 72 runs overall.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>May 27th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Aaron Sanchez vs. Joe Kelly</b></p>
<p>After last season, there were many who were fully in this &#8220;Sanchez will be a great starter&#8221; boat;  I (Matt) was not among them. The reason? While Sanchez had been successful in the bullpen, he was ostensibly a two-pitch pitcher. In fact, he&#8217;s arguably <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">still a two-pitch pitcher</a>. Two-pitch pitchers are generally prime candidates for the bullpen, but Sanchez&#8217;s main pitch, the two seam fastball, has so much movement and velocity that he&#8217;s able to fool hitters anyway. Even still, I worry that a team is going to adjust to that, and the Red Sox, with all their smart hitters, are as good a candidate as any.</p>
<p>Joe Kelly has career highs in every single category that you can name. Unfortunately for him, those &#8216;highs&#8217; include career high walk and home run rates. Kelly&#8217;s start against the Blue Jays will be just his fifth of the season after landing on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He&#8217;s likely to get a bit better, but that probably won&#8217;t start with the Blue Jays. As <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/25/the-blue-jays-hitters-need-to-adjust-to-adjustments/" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam noted this week</a>, the Jays&#8217; hitters are real good at hitting fastballs, and that&#8217;s Kelly&#8217;s specialty. In fact, Joe Kelly has always thrown at least 50% fastballs, but this season <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=523260&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=05/27/2016&amp;s_type=2" target="_blank">he seems to have swapped his primary pitch from the sinking fastball to a four seamer</a>. Against the Jays, that should hurt him.</p>
<h4>May 28th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Marcus Stroman vs. Rick Porcello</b></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman is magical. He doesn&#8217;t lead the team in strikeouts, he doesn&#8217;t have the fewest walks, and he doesn&#8217;t have the lowest ERA. He&#8217;s also not the tallest pitcher nor does he throw the hardest. Yet Stroman does lead the team in innings pitched with 69 and a 1/3 thrown. As you likely know, he&#8217;s done that by being one of the craftier starters in the league; throwing six distinct pitches. Unfortunately, the Red Sox have been fairly good at hitting just about anything thrown their way this year. However, the pitch that they&#8217;ve faired worst against is the curveball&#8230;expect Stroman to toss a few more of those than normal.</p>
<p>In many ways, Porcello is much like Stroman. He also throws six distinct pitches, and his pitch of choice is the sinker. However, Porcello has never been able to induce the elite ground ball rates that Stroman routinely puts up. Nevertheless, he has had success this season in his own way, and has a case as the best Red Sox pitcher thus far. And again, like Stroman, against the heart of the opposing lineup, expect a few more breaking balls than usual.</p>
<h4>May 29th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>R.A. Dickey vs. David Price</b></p>
<p>There&#8217;s something unfortunately notable about Dickey&#8217;s 2016 season: it marks the first time that he&#8217;s had an ERA that is greater than his FIP. This year, through 10 starts, R.A. Dickey is sporting a 4.60 ERA and a 4.41 FIP, creating a FIP-ERA of -0.19. In general, one should expect that a pitcher&#8217;s FIP roughly equal their ERA. However, Dickey&#8217;s different. As a knuckleballer, one would expect that his BABIP fall far below the .300 average as knuckleballs are proven to induce weak contact. In turn, that should allow him to post ERAs well below his FIP. This season, Dickey&#8217;s sporting a .287 BABIP, which is well above his average of .269 since becoming a full time starter. As such, we can expect a little positive regression there, and in his 63.8 LOB%. For R.A. Dickey, it gets better.</p>
<p>Similarly to Dickey, David Price also has an ERA above his FIP this season. However, unlike Dickey&#8217;s -0.19 FIP-ERA differential, Price&#8217;s is at -2.52. His walk rate and home run rate are right in line with his career averages, while his strikeout rate is a career best. Ergo we should unfortunately expect Price to get better. Price has run in to some BABIP woes himself, sporting a .337 BABIP on the season; he should be at around .300 and his career average is .288. There&#8217;s something to be said for the fact that Price may just be leaving too many hittable pitches in the zone. If that&#8217;s the case, hopefully the Jays can take advantage. However, David Price is an ace and those pitchers don&#8217;t fade so quickly. This will be his first start back in Toronto since his magical run last season, so expect a nice hand from the sell out home crowd.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Joe Kelly returned to the Sox Rotation and threw six no-hit innings on May 24th, as noted above, he might not have as much success against the Jays lineup. Brock Holt, on the concussion DL, will remain absent for the Jays series as he recovers. His .310/.355/.448 career line at Rogers Centre will be one that the Jays are happy to bypass.</p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki is day-to-day with a quad injury, but is expected to play again very soon. When that situation firms up, the Jays are most likely to drop a bench infielder (I see you hiding over there Mr. Goins) and call up the rehabbing Aaron Loup.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong><del>Jackie Bradley Jr.&#8217;s Hitting Streak</del></strong></p>
<p>Okay, so the 29 game hitting streak that Jackie Bradley Jr. had been on actually ended in the final game before the Red Sox came to Toronto. Instead, we can all check out the player with the longest current hitting streak in the majors, Xander Bogaerts, at 19 games. The Red Sox, folks. All the hits.</p>
<p><strong>David Ortiz Retirement  Tour</strong></p>
<p>If there were an award for &#8220;Player Who is in Final Year but Looking Like He Is Leaving Too Early&#8221;, David Ortiz would be the unanimous choice.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">David Ortiz&#39;s last 162 games</p>
<p>54 doubles, 1 triple, 45 homers<br />141 RBI, 87 BB, 103 K<br />.296/.381/.618</p>
<p>As good as any season he&#39;s ever had.</p>
<p>&mdash; High Heat Stats MLB (@HighHeatStats) <a href="https://twitter.com/HighHeatStats/status/736182850861576193">May 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Better to hang them one year too early than one year too late, I guess.</p>
<p><strong>This &#8216;Wacky&#8217; Jays Lineup</strong></p>
<p>Apparently the Blue Jays players discussed a lineup change with management a couple of weeks ago, and their ideas were implemented. This included putting the highest OBP hitter, Jose Bautista, at the top of the lineup, instead of a guy who &#8216;has speed&#8217;. This crazy idea did not lead to the Jays scoring nine runs every night, but they have won some games with this configuration, and it keeps being pencilled in. That said, Devon Travis has returned, and after a nifty little single against a 102mph Aroldis Chapman fastball, you have to wonder if Gibbons will be tempted to move things around in a more &#8216;traditional&#8217; way.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not sure how Devon Travis even got a bat on this pitch, but he did &#8230; <a href="https://t.co/N51SQYUrXX">https://t.co/N51SQYUrXX</a> <a href="https://t.co/qQtwN9lloV">pic.twitter.com/qQtwN9lloV</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Ian Hunter (@BlueJayHunter) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJayHunter/status/736013765913759744">May 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Red Sox</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Mookie Betts &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Dustin Pedroia &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Xander Bogaerts &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 David Ortiz &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Hanley Ramirez &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Jackie Bradley Jr. &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Travis Shaw &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Christian Vasquez &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Blake Swihart &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Red Sox are a hot team, and are way out in front of the division, like many predicted in the preseason. These are games that the Jays really do need to win the majority of in order to stay in contention. The winning formula for the Jays has been, to this point, seven innings from the starter, and then squeeze out three or four outs and give the ball to the unflappable Roberto Osuna. Only he and Joe Biagini have been worth trusting with the ball in the last month, which is kind of crazy. Until the lineups starts putting runs on the board, great performances from the starters are going to be the most important element of the Blue Jays game plan.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 7; Bullpen Brings Gas Can to Put Out Fire</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/09/recap-red-sox-8-blue-jays-7-bullpen-brings-gas-to-put-out-fire/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Apr 2016 13:08:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1247</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It was time for 2016 Home Opener and the city was buzzing with anticipation. The Roger Centre was filled to capacity with over 48,000 fans who filed in early to catch the opening ceremonies &#8211; which included the Jays first MVP (1987) George Bell presenting last years MVP Josh Donaldson with his plaque, video tributes to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was time for 2016 Home Opener and the city was buzzing with anticipation. The Roger Centre was filled to capacity with over 48,000 fans who filed in early to catch the opening ceremonies &#8211; which included the Jays first MVP (1987) George Bell presenting last years MVP Josh Donaldson with his plaque, video tributes to last years amazing pennant run, and long time Blue Jay President Paul Beeston throwing out the first pitch. But even with this exciting atmosphere the Jays would repeat an all too familiar pattern in this early season by getting an early lead only to have it given away late by the bullpen.</p>
<p>The Jays were able to once again drive the opposing starting pitcher from the game early, this time it was Joe Kelly. Besides surrendering a leadoff triple to Kevin Pillar (which scored on a sacrifice fly by Edwin Encarnacian), Kelly was very effective through the first three innings by mixing his fastball and off speed pitches. But in the fourth the Jays scored six runs before recording an out, capped off by a Josh Donaldson grand slam (the first in franchise history in a home opener). This made the score 7-2 Jays and with Marcus Stroman pitching looked to be enough.</p>
<p>However, in the top of the 6th Stroman gave up a leadoff double to Dustin Pedroia and then walks to David Ortiz and Travis Shaw surrounding a Hanley Ramirez ground out. Gibbons elected to go to Jesse Chavez to face Brock Holt over Franklin Morales who would have inevitably faced lefty masher Chris Young (it was later revealed that Morales was unavailable to pitch as he felt weakness in his shoulder after throwing one pitch…. uh oh). A of couple pitches later Brock Hol, had hit the second grand slam of the game and it was just a one run Jays lead.</p>
<p>In the seventh inning, Drew Storen and Brett Cecil combined to give up four straight singles with one out to give the Red Sox an 8-7 lead that they would never relinquish.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the seventh, after getting the first out, Drew Storen gave up back to back singles to Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts. Brett Cecil was summoned to face David Ortiz with the Jays holding a one run lead. But he fell behind 3-0 before eventually giving up a full count single to tie the game and move the runner to third. This hit increased the Red Sox chances to win by 24 percent (.240 WPA). Ortiz had a great game with two hits driving in two runs and individually generating 0.359 WPA for himself. The next batter was Hanley Ramirez and he singled to drive in the eventual winning run.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the 8th inning and the Red Sox leading 8-7, Ezequiel Carrera was standing on second base as the tying run. Both Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista had chances to tie the game with a hit, but both of them came up empty. The Donaldson groundout dropped the Jays chances of winning the game by 9.8 percent, and Jose Bautista&#8217;s comebacker reduced them by yet another 9.9 percent.</p>
<h3>Offense Still Whiffing</h3>
<p>The highly touted Toronto offense continues to be in a bit of an early season funk. While they did put up their first <em>big</em> inning of the season in the fourth &#8211; scoring six &#8211; they struggled to generate much offense for the rest of the game. And once again, a big culprit was simply failing to put the ball in play. In the end, they went 4/29 outside of the fourth and registered double digits in strikeouts (ten). An offense that was acknowledged for their patience last season has struck out 56 times in the first five games, and while it&#8217;s still early, this is a situation that will need to reverse itself quickly.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman Not at his Best</h3>
<p>After dominating the Rays by pounding the bottom of the zone, Stroman really struggled with his command against Boston. He began the game looking overpowering &#8211; striking out the first two batter and three of the first four &#8211; and had another stretch where he retired seven in a row, but he just couldn&#8217;t find any consistency. His sinker in particular was causing a lot of problems. The ball was moving just as much as last time out, but he left many of them up, and got hit hard. He also tied his career high by walking three batters. He will need to be better next time out.</p>
<h3>Battle of the Bullpens</h3>
<p>The main difference in the game was the performance of the two bullpens. The Jays offense could do no damage at all against a Red Sox quintet of Noe Ramirez, Matt Barnes, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, and Craig Kimbrel, who combined for six innings of two-hit ball. On the other hand, the Jays bullpen continues to cough up leads. Chavez, Storen, and Cecil all struggled mightily, and on the whole the bullpen allowed all five inherited runners to score. Gavin Floyd looked strong in his inning, at least.</p>
<h3>A Successful Debut</h3>
<p>There was one other reliever to take the bump in last night&#8217;s game, and it was Rule V pick Joe Biagini pitching in his first major league game. The rooki was summoned to work the ninth to face the heart of the Red Sox lineup &#8211; Bogaerts, Ortiz, and Ramirez &#8211; and preserve a one-run lead. Major league debuts are hard enough as it is, so facing that trio certainly can&#8217;t make things better. However, if he was nervous, he certainly didn’t show it, He used a good, hard fastball to cut through the three hitters including his first major league strikeout, courtesy of David Ortiz. Prior to the game Jays GM Ross Atkins said <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/718630017807167488" target="_blank">he was fighting for a position</a> on the team. Let&#8217;s just say he probably opened a few eyes.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Saturday the Jays will play game two of this three game set. Rick Porcello (4.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 2015) makes his first start of the season as he takes on R.A. Dickey. Dickey is looking for a little bit more consistency than last time out. Both managers will be looking for their starters to go deeper in the game to avoid overusing their bullpen for a second straight day. First pitch will be at 1:07 pm EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Revisiting J.A. Happ&#8217;s Offseason Contract</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Yin Chen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yovani Gallardo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from locking down a starting job. Although, there were a few memorable moments in his Jays career. As one example, Happ made the Opening Day rotation in 2013 as a result of Ricky Romero&#8217;s sudden decline. That was certainly memorable. Whether it was bad luck or his own inconsistency, Happ was never able to cement his place in the Jays’ rotation during his time with Toronto. This had been an established pattern throughout his career. 2015 was the first season in which he’d made more than 30 starts, and only the third time he’d appeared in more than 30 games.</p>
<p>Having the security of a three year deal will make Happ’s place in the rotation much more certain. Teams don’t pay $12 million dollars a year for a swing-man. The deal may have seemed suspect at the time, but rest of the offseason has made Happ&#8217;s contract look much better. Here are a few of the other comparable pitchers that signed this offseason. (Note: All numbers in the tables are 2015 totals)</p>
<h3>Happ and Wei-Yin Chen</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-99 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png" alt="HappChen" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Once I sat down to write this piece, Chen was the first comp to spring to mind. They’re both left-handers with some experience pitching in the AL East, and a reputation for not pitching deep into games. Looking at their career numbers rather than 2015, Chen is also someone who has historically out-performed his FIP, while Happ has generally undershot it. As well, Chen has been reliable for the Orioles, while Happ has tormented organizations with potential. Chen also has the benefit of moving from the competitive American League East to the less competitive National League East, while Happ is transitioning back to the AL after his time in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>As for contracts, Chen signed a five-year deal with the Marlins worth $80 million dollars, which works out to an average annual value of $16 million per season. He will also cost the Marlins their second-round pick, as he declined a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. However, Chen is also a few years younger than Happ, which likely factored in to his getting a longer deal.</p>
<p>In a vacuum, Wei-Yin Chen is the better pitcher, and his going to a more favorable situation can’t hurt. With that said, his contract also gives him much more leverage with the opt-out after two seasons and the vesting option after six. The Jays, who would have had to give up their first rounder, were probably not seriously considering Chen at that price.</p>
<h3>Happ and Yovani Gallardo</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-101 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png" alt="happgallardo" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Despite his being effective against the Jays during the season, there were few free-agent pitchers that made Jays fans less excited than Gallardo. Though the baseball card stats (13-11, 3.42 ERA over 33 starts) look fine at first glance, there were several other things that hampered Gallardo’s value prior to his signing a contract with the Orioles. For one thing, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last several years, finishing 2015 at an ugly 5.9 K/9. For another, even though he made 33 starts, Gallardo didn’t throw many innings, averaging out at less than six per start. The last time Gallardo threw more than six innings in a start was June 27th, and that start was the only time all year he threw more than seven. Gallardo’s 2015 was his seventh full season in the Major Leagues, having notched 1473 innings in his career.One wonders if the miles on his arm are contributing to the waning strikeout rates and stamina.</p>
<p>The money (<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/possible-snag-in-deal-between-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html">and initially failed physical</a>) bore that out as Gallardo signed a two-year deal with the Orioles for $22 million, with a club option that could bring the total value of the deal up to $35 million. He did also cost the Orioles their first round selection, which would have been the 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick. They do get a compensation pick back with Chen signing with the Marlins, but it still ends up as a slight loss for them as they got a pitcher who&#8217;s probably going to be worse than Chen this year.</p>
<p>In the end, from only the stats, the balance of Gallardo’s career so far is certainly better than Happ’s. However, the declining innings and strikeouts from Gallardo, combined with his costing the Orioles a first round pick makes the Happ deal look like a better call. Does Gallardo’s contract being shorter make it better? Maybe, but teams generally shouldn’t throw away a first round pick for two years of a clearly declining starter.</p>
<h3>Happ and Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-100 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png" alt="HappEstrada" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>The 2015 statistics are different, but we clearly see two pitchers who&#8217;ve had similar career paths. Estrada, like Happ, has been inconsistent, previously bouncing in and out of the rotation with the Brewers. This seemed like it was going to continue in Toronto, as Estrada started the season in the bullpen, but he soon made his way into the rotation. Once that happened, the rest was history. He established himself as one of the Blue Jays’ best pitchers, posting career bests in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts; leading to a 10<sup>th</sup> place finish in Cy Young voting. After that season, Estrada, like the others on this list, had the dreaded qualifying offer hanging over his head, which hampered his value. Despite having a better year, he signed for similar money to Happ.</p>
<p>If we look solely at the 2015 stats, it appears that the Jays got a bargain with Estrada. However, as is the case with the other players we&#8217;ve looked at, trends and the body of work are important. In comparison to others in this piece, Estrada simply didn’t have the track record of success before coming to the Blue Jays. They acquired him for Adam Lind in the 2014-15 offseason; a player the Brewers &#8220;liked&#8221; so much that they moved him to the Mariners prior to this season. While the qualifying offer didn&#8217;t severely hamper the market for Chen and Gallardo, it did for Estrada. Though, that also could have been a few troubling trends. Estrada&#8217;s FIP was the second-highest he’d had in a full season in the big leagues, and despite a career low ERA, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Estrada thrived on a fantastic change-up, and it will be interesting to see if an off-season of preparation can help the league adjust to him. Nevertheless, Estrada and Happ provide similar value for the Blue Jays in 2016, with Estrada probably being a little bit better.</p>
<h3>Happ and Ian Kennedy</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-102 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png" alt="HappKennedy" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This offseason, Ian Kennedy got five years and $70 million dollars from the Royals. This came after a season wherein he lost 15 games and had a 4.26 ERA. Oh&#8230;and and he’ll cost the Royals their first round pick. That’s not a joke. That actually happened. Of course, the Royals are coming off of two World Series appearances&#8230;so it&#8217;s hard to criticize that front office too much. Maybe it&#8217;s mechanical: Edinson Volquez had his best year with the Royals, spotting 96 mph fastballs on the corner against the Jays during the postseason. If they fixed Volquez, maybe they think they can fix Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy was successful as recently as 2014, when he notched 13 wins, 201 innings, and a nice enough 3.63 ERA. He hasn&#8217;t always been bad. He’s also made 30 starts for six consecutive years, which is something to note in an age of increased pitcher injuries. As well, he did post a 9.3 K/9, which is a nice number from a starter. However, he&#8217;ll probably never reach the heights of his 2011 season in Arizona, when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, as he&#8217;s moving into the American League. The formerly touted Yankees prospect is more of a durable journeyman at this point. Although, given the construction of their team&#8230;maybe that’s what the Royals were looking for?</p>
<p>They have built fantastic bullpens, year after year, and maybe all they wanted was a pitcher who can go six innings and pass the ball off. As the Royals’ pick is somewhere in the 20s, a lost first rounder probably didn&#8217;t trouble them as much. Even then it’s still one less draft pick, spent on a pitcher who&#8217;s had one good season in the last three. Ultimately, this one’s the easiest to argue for the Jays, as Kennedy’s almost certainly a worse pitcher than Happ, save for that durability.</p>
<h3>Happ and David Price</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png" alt="HappPrice" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This is a hilariously unfair comparison for several reasons. David Price, by any measurement, is much, much better than J.A. Happ, and got way more money. The Red Sox didn’t even need to give up a draft pick to get him, as Price was acquired by the Blue Jays in a mid-season trade. One might use Happ’s stretch with the Pirates as a comparison, but playing the arbitrary endpoints game at the trade deadline is disingenuous at best. Taking the best stretch of Happ’s career and comparing it to an elite level starter&#8217;s usual output is a shaky attempt to justify the cavernous drop off from Price to Happ.</p>
<p>The reason Price is on this list is solely because he was the one whom Jays fans compared Happ to when he was signed. After spending prospects to get Price at the deadline, and watching him dominate down the stretch, fans (and I count myself in this group) harbored dreams of him staying with the Jays after his contract expired. Price certainly said all the right things about wanting to stay, but given how much he was going to cost, it was unlikely that he was going to return.</p>
<p>There were other holes for the Jays to fill, and future problems to consider. Estrada was a free agent, Mark Buehrle’s reliable 200 innings departed, and they had a club option on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, leaving up to four potential vacancies in Toronto’s rotation. With an arbitration raise coming to MVP Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s respective free agencies looming after this season, committing $30 million+ per season to David Price just didn’t make a lot of sense. There are times when spending for high-end talent is the right call, but for the Jays, already stocked with a lot of great players, spreading the wealth around was much more pragmatic.</p>
<p>In the clear light of day, and with real baseball that counts just around the corner, we can look back and see that the J.A. Happ contract was fine&#8230;perhaps even good with how the pitching market developed. Seeing that potentially lesser pitchers signed for more money and cost draft picks, the Jays moving quickly on Happ looks much better. However, coming down from the high of David Price, it’s easy to see how Happ would have seemed disappointing earlier on in the offseason. It didn’t help that Happ had a prior history with the Jays; a history that some fans remember all too well (for the wrong reasons).</p>
<p>J.A. Happ isn’t exciting. He’s not an ace. He’s not someone you can reliably pencil in for 200 innings. He&#8217;s not someone who&#8217;s going to contend for the Cy Young every year. J.A. Happ is a multi-grain bagel with butter for breakfast: it&#8217;s okay, it gets the job done, but it’s not much fun, and you’re not really looking forward to it. David Price was the cinnamon roll with sugary frosting: delicious, enjoyable, and something you want to have again, even if it isn&#8217;t a great long-term decision for your health. If there’s something we’ve all learned growing up, it’s that taking the bagel is probably the smarter move.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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