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		<title>Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 10:54:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dealing Out Aces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Mix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2484</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Coming into the season, much of the talk surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays was based around the volatility in the starting rotation, with most people reasonably secure with the bullpen and the offense. Well, in the early parts of 2016, the truth has been anything but. The lineup has really struggled at times, and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Coming into the season, much of the talk surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays was based around the volatility in the starting rotation, with most people reasonably secure with the bullpen and the offense. Well, in the early parts of 2016, the truth has been anything but. The lineup has really struggled at times, and the bullpen has allowed nearly half of all inherited runners to score. On the flip side, the starting pitching has been nothing short of excellent. They lead the league in innings pitched and sit fourth in the AL with a 3.47 ERA.</p>
<p>One of the men who most embodies this flip from expectations is last year’s staff ace, Marco Estrada. 2015 was a magical year for the former Brewer, as he finished fifth in ERA, second in WHIP, and first in opponents batting average. However, coming into this year, many expected regression from the 32-year-old. He had never been as successful as he was in 2015, and it came on the back of a a .216 BABIP. With that said, <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">there were reasons to believe</a> that some of the success would be sustainable. Still, even those who believed in his changes, as I did, expected at least a <em>small</em> step back.</p>
<p>A big part of why many expected that return to “normalcy” from Estrada was the departure of his personal catcher, Dioner Navarro. Navarro is known around the league as an elite pitch caller, and he drastically changed the pitch usage of both Estrada and Mark Buehrle, to tremendous success. Also, like Buehrle, Estrada no longer shakes off his catcher (which he actually learned from the veteran lefty). He just gets the sign and throws the pitch.</p>
<p>Of course, Russell Martin is no slouch when it comes to calling a game. He takes pride in his work with pitchers, and when <a title="Marco Estrada Embraces Leadership Role; Ready to Repeat 2015" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/marco-estrada-embraces-his-leadership-role-ready-to-repeat-2015/" target="_blank">I spoke to Estrada</a> back in spring training, he mentioned that both Martin and Pete Walker had studied what made Estrada so successful last year with an eye to helping it extend into 2016 and beyond.</p>
<p>So far it’s pretty clear that things are working. Estrada has actually lowered his ERA by almost 3/4 of a run, while also increasing his strikeout rate to 23.7 percent. It sounds like he has picked up right where he left off. Well&#8230;sort of. It’s not nearly as drastic <a title="J.A. Not Happy With The Status Quo" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/j-a-not-happy-with-status-quo/" target="_blank">as what happened with J.A. Happ</a>, but Marco Estrada has made some alterations to his work from last year. This is something that we probably could’ve seen coming. From that same Estrada conversation piece I linked above:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Of course, Estrada isn’t done trying to get better just because he seems to have acquired this zen-like trust in his catcher. Like any great athlete, Estrada is always striving to adapt so that he can be the best. He learned his now famous changeup in the minors (from Clint Everts) when he realized he didn’t have enough of a repertoire to get pro hitters out. Then, just last year Estrada added his current cutter, which he now feels comfortable throwing in any count.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>It also just so happens that the first obvious difference comes right out of that very paragraph. Take a look at Estrada’s pitch rates for this season.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Usage-Chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2485" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Usage-Chart.png" alt="Usage Chart" width="500" height="328" /></a></p>
<p>One thing jumps out right away: Estrada has started throwing a lot more cutters, at the expense of his fourseam fastball. At first glace, this might seem like an odd decision. After all, last year, batters hit .323/.333/.613 on plate appearances that ended with the cutter. Well, he has refined the pitch this year and, it has taken a complete turn. Batters are hitting just .143 with zero extra base hits, and he has increased the whiff rate from 8.3 percent up to 19.2 percent.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, the cutter has turned into a pitch that helps Estrada get groundballs. As we all know too well, Marco Estrada is an extreme flyball pitcher (or popup pitcher, as he prefers to be called), but sometimes a groundball is needed to get out of a jam. That’s where the cutter comes in. Last year Estrada was getting groundballs on 37 percent of his cutters. This year, that number is 57.9. As a result, his overall groundball rate on every pitch has risen from 32.2 percent last year up to 42.6 percent so far in 2016.</p>
<p>So why has this happened? Well, here&#8217;s one reason:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Cutter-Chart.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2486" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Cutter-Chart.jpeg" alt="Cutter Chart" width="953" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Estrada is getting a full inch extra of horizontal movement, and about three-quarters of an inch of extra drop (higher numbers mean the piece is fighting gravity, or staying up, more). That would certainly help generate more missed swings and more grounders.</p>
<p>That’s definitely a huge factor in Estrada’s success so far, but it’s still one of his most infrequently thrown pitches (just ahead of the curveball). Marco Estrada makes his money on his fastball and changeup. The change is almost exactly the same as last year, both in movement and location, so there’s not much to say on that subject. It is one of the best changeups in baseball, so there is no clear need to tinker. On the fastball, however, it’s a completely different story.</p>
<p>Last year, Marco Estrada started throwing his fastball up in the zone for the first time in his career. When combined with his elite spin rate, it caused batters to pop up the ball a ton. This year, he is doing things a little bit more traditionally.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2487" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid" width="833" height="233" /></p>
<p>He is still getting elite rise, with his fastball actually dropping <em>less</em>, at 12.9 inches compared to 12.4 inches last year, but he is no longer using it at the top of the zone with the goal of getting easy popups. Instead, he is aiming for weak contact overall on the black of the plate, which is more traditional for a pitcher with an 89 mph fastball.</p>
<p>This is helping with the increased groundball rate, but it also helps explain some of the other ratio changes. By working to the edges with the heater, Estrada gets more swings and misses (17.4 percent this year compared to 15.5 percent last year), but more significantly, he gets fewer swings overall. Last year, batters offered at 48.5 percent of Estrada’s fastballs. This year, that number is down to 42.8 percent. He is also throwing fewer of them in the strike zone, at 49.8 percent down from 51.8. As a result, the walks have gone up slightly. Still, with less consistent and weaker contact, it’s a pretty logical tradeoff.</p>
<p>Like Happ, however, once Estrada gets to two strikes, his approach changes considerably.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-61.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2488" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-61.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (6)" width="830" height="233" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-31.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2490" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-31.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (3)" width="831" height="233" /></a></p>
<p>With his offspeed stuff, Estrada tries to pound the lower part of the zone in zero or one strike counts, but goes down and out of the zone with two strikes. Similarly, he works the fringes of the zone with his fastball and cutter until he gets to a strikeout situation, where he works heavily to the upper part of the zone and off the plate to his arm side. When you combine all of these approaches with Estrada’s devastating changeup, you get more groundballs, more strikeouts, and yes, more walks. Overall, you get the type of performance that we have seen so far this year.</p>
<p>At least in the short term, the Navarro factor seems to have been overstated. Russell Martin isn&#8217;t doing things the same way, but he has made adjustments that are more than paying off for the Marco Estrada. Martin doesn&#8217;t get all the credit, of course. Estrada also did great work refining his cutter, and has had to execute the pitches Martin is putting down.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s obviously still early in the season, as Estrada has made only six starts so far, so I will be checking back in twice more to see how things keep up. I will do it once around the all-star break and once more at the end of the season. However, I don&#8217;t really expect things to change. Russell Martin is an elite catcher, and Marco Estrada is showing that among starting pitchers, he is one of the best bargains in major league baseball.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Pitch Charts Courtesy of Brooks Baseball<br />
</em></p>
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		<title>J.A. Not Happy With The Status Quo</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/j-a-not-happy-with-status-quo/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/j-a-not-happy-with-status-quo/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2016 10:22:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dealing Out Aces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Under the Hood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mechanics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Mix]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2146</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This piece was co-authored by Chris Sherwin. It&#8217;s no secret that J.A. Happ is a different pitcher from the one we saw back in 2013 and 2014 for the Toronto Blue Jays. He&#8217;s also a different pitcher than he was in Seattle. As you may know, a whole lot of that credit goes to Pittsburgh [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>This piece was co-authored by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/chrissherwin/" target="_blank">Chris Sherwin</a>.</em></p>
<p>It&#8217;s no secret that J.A. Happ is a different pitcher from the one we saw back in 2013 and 2014 for the Toronto Blue Jays. He&#8217;s also a different pitcher than he was in Seattle. As you may know, a whole lot of that credit goes to Pittsburgh Pirates&#8217; pitching coach, Ray Searage.</p>
<p>When Happ arrived in Pittsburgh, he was supposed to add some depth and reliability to a young rotation that was pushing for a postseason berth. However, after Happ&#8217;s Pittsburgh debut went very poorly, Ray Searage studied his bullpen sessions and quickly found a flaw. Essentially, he felt Happ wasn’t striding directly towards home plate, which ended up wasting too much upper body movement and affecting his arm slot.</p>
<p>Interestingly, this is the same mechanical adjustment the Jays staff tried to make during Happ’s previous tenure with the club. In Houston, Happ’s mechanical flaws included poor balance and posture, inconsistent stride length and heavy trunk tilt. This conflicted with an organizational philosophy in Toronto; they want their pitchers to take a direct line to the plate. It took some time, but they were able to slowly remove a lot of the wasted upper body movement in Happ’s delivery and straighten him out. Below is an example of how much he changed from his Houston days to his first in Toronto.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/4YearTilt-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2147" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/4YearTilt-1.png" alt="4YearTilt (1)" width="759" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>With a much more controlled movement pattern and direct line, Happ creates extra hip rotation and separation, which also keeps him more balanced. The results were an increase in velocity, a more natural arm slot and improved command. However, even with the positive mechanical tweaks, Happ was still plagued with bouts of inconsistency. His mechanics would be perfect at times, but he couldn&#8217;t maintain it. Repetition is vital for a pitcher to , and Happ would frequently rush his movement patterns and create mechanical inefficiencies, affecting both velocity and command.</p>
<p>In Pittsburgh, Searage noticed something extra: Happ was rushing and over-rotating in his delivery. This altered his arm slot, making it easier for hitters to pick up the baseball. Searage shut Happ down for 10 days to fix the rotation issues and Happ responded. Take a look at Happ&#8217;s release points from August 14th (his first start back) until the end of the season:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Happ-Release-points.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2171" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Happ-Release-points.jpg" alt="Happ Release points" width="965" height="325" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Happ&#8217;s release (both vertical and horizontal) showed <em>way</em> more consistency than his time in Seattle. As a direct result, Happ was able to have greater command of his pitches. The result was a run that saw Happ end the season with a 1.37 ERA in his final 10 starts, with batters hitting just .201/.240/.285 during that stretch. Instead of rotation depth, the Pirates got an ace.</p>
<p>In Pittsburgh, Searage helped Happ to consistently find the best balance and posture that he would only show occasionally in Toronto. Below is an example of his average trunk tilt in Pittsburgh matched up to his best from his early Toronto days.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Untitled3-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2148" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Untitled3-1.png" alt="Untitled3 (1)" width="550" height="392" /></a></p>
<p>It’s still early in the 2016 season, but Happ has been able to maintain the steady mechanics, and the results have been there:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/HappBostonTilt-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2149" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/HappBostonTilt-1.png" alt="HappBostonTilt (1)" width="601" height="446" /></a></p>
<p>Since Happ has kept up the steady mechanics from his time in Pittsburgh, one would assume he was doing everything else the one again put up excellent numbers. Well, if you&#8217;ve been reading here and elsewhere lately, you&#8217;ll know that&#8217;s not remotely the case. Last week in our Roto Review, <a title="Blue Jays Rotation Review: The Return of Drew" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/" target="_blank">we outlined how Happ has been using more curveballs</a> in games where he was generating more groundballs. Then last week <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/happs-approach-evolving-return-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet.ca pointed out</a> that Happ had also switched his fastball usage from fourseamers to twoseamers, which also would contribute to fewer strikeouts and more grounders.</p>
<p>On the surface, that would seem to explain away some of the differences, but in reality, it goes far deeper than that. If you clicked on the link to the Sportsnet piece, you would have seen this chart which displays the change in fastballs:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2159" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Happ has indeed increased his sinker usage greatly while drastically reducing reliance on the fourseamer. But if you just look at that chart, it&#8217;s hard to get a true sense of what else he&#8217;s doing. Because the fourseam was thrown so often in Pittsburgh, the scale on that graph makes the offspeed pitch rates look flat. In reality, they were anything but:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-14.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2160" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-14.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (14)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>By removing the fastballs from the graph, we can see that Happ is throwing essentially the same amount of cutters, but has increased both his curveball and changeup usage. The curveball rate has risen from 8 percent to 12.5 percent, and he is throwing the changeup seven percent of the time, up from five with the Pirates. And even though the cut fastball has the same usage rate, the pitch itself is totally different.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2162" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (15)" width="954" height="321" /></a></p>
<p>Happ is now throwing his cutter nearly 1.5 mph harder and the pitch now has 1.5 fewer inches of drop. So we have pitches thrown at completely different rates, and the lone outlier is essentially a brand new pitch with new shape and velocity. Essentially, J.A. Happ has an entirely different repertoire. If the goal is to become a more efficient pitcher, it makes sense that Happ would try something different.</p>
<p>It would probably be enough to stop there, but stuff and usage are just part of what make a pitcher successful. The other equally (if not more) important factor is location. <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-believe-blue-jays-j-a-happ/" target="_blank">One of the big changes</a> that Happ made once he got to the Pirates was that he started using the entire plate as opposed to living mostly away (to both righties and lefties) as he had done previously (with both Toronto and Seattle). With the increased fastball usage, that switch made sense. It&#8217;s hard to get outs when you&#8217;re only throwing heat to one spot. Well, with the change is repertoire, comes a change in pitch location:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-3.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2166" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-3.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (3)" width="1152" height="324" /></a></p>
<p>In the early going this season, Happ is pounding the ball to his arm side. Once again, this makes sense with his pitch usage (Note, Happ has faced 115 RHBs and just 17 LHBs, so the analysis will be focusing on pitch usage to righties). Twoseam fastballs get more movement on the arm side, and there is far less risk of a ball running back over the plate. It also avoids the traditional power area for most hitters, making it harder to pull the ball. Similarly, throwing changeups and breaking balls away is a good strategy, as the timing issues created by the slower pitches causes balls to be hit off the end of the bat for easier outs. In fact, the only pitch that Happ throws with any consistency inside to righties is the cutter:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_heatmap-1.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2168" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_heatmap-1.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_heatmap (1)" width="500" height="281" /></a></p>
<p>With the pitch becoming more of a true cutter (or slutter) as opposed to the slider version he was throwing in previous years, Happ has a weapon to bust in on RHBs hands to keep them from just sitting on the outside corner against his other offerings.</p>
<p>All of these things, when taken together make sense for a man trying to generate more soft contact to get quick outs. But what about the strikeouts? After all, Happ has been a pretty decent strikeout pitcher throughout his career with a strikeout rate hovering right around average. This year however, Happ&#8217;s strikeout rate has fallen to a meager 15.2 percent, which is well below league-average. Well, not to worry Blue Jays fans, as J.A. Happ can still get a strikeout when he needs to.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-6.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2170" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/trumedia_baseball_grid-6.png" alt="trumedia_baseball_grid (6)" width="1152" height="324" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Happ completely changes his approach with two strikes. Instead of pounding the fastball low and away, he uses the entire plate and works at the top of the zone. As a result, his strikeout rate once he gets to two strikes is thirty percent, which is right in line with his career average of 31 percent.</p>
<p>So Happ has cleaned up his mechanics and changed his repertoire to get quick outs early in counts, but is still collecting strikeouts when he gets to two strikes. That sure sounds like a good combination for success.</p>
<p>Now, it should be mentioned that Russell Martin and Pete Walker probably deserve some of the credit for this. As outlined by John Lott <a href="https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/blue-jays-southpaw-ja-happ-is-constantly-adjusting-to-stay-ahead" target="_blank">in a great piece for Vice</a>, Happ is focusing on working quicker and trusting his catcher more. Given that information, it is in fact likely that Russell Martin has had a profound impact on these changes. But that being said, Happ still had to buy into all of this. It would have been very easy for him to come in and insist on doing the same things that made him one of the best pitchers in all of baseball during the second half of last season. Instead, he came in and said &#8216;let&#8217;s make this even better.&#8217;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the sign of a pitcher who really wants to be the best, and the Jays and their fans should be very Happy to have J.A.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Pitch Velocity and Release charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball<br />
Heat Maps and Grids courtesy of TruMedia</em></p>
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		<title>Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Apr 2016 13:31:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitch Mix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I must confess, I didn&#8217;t start this piece out with the idea of making declarations about Aaron Sanchez and his arsenal on the mound. I started, quite innocently, with a pitch chart from Brooks Baseball. For those of you who might not be familiar with the chart I am talking about, let me illustrate first, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I must confess, I didn&#8217;t start this piece out with the idea of making declarations about Aaron Sanchez and his arsenal on the mound. I started, quite innocently, with a pitch chart from Brooks Baseball. For those of you who might not be familiar with the chart I am talking about, let me illustrate first, and then explain.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/stroman-pitch-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1735 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/stroman-pitch-chart.png" alt="stroman pitch chart" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>This is a Marcus Stroman pitch chart. Why did I pick a Marcus Stroman chart when this piece is about Aaron Sanchez? Because Stroman&#8217;s chart looks how a starter&#8217;s velocity chart should look. As you can see, it marks each pitch by its velocity on the vertical axis and its pitch number on the horizontal. It&#8217;s one way to look at a pitcher&#8217;s performance in one glance. You can see, reading from left to right, if a pitcher is tiring by looking at the max MPH on the fastballs. Stroman loses about one MPH over his first 90 pitches, and then suddenly another one in his last ten pitches. It&#8217;s nothing that should set off alarm bells, but he was tiring. You can also see that he only used about five of his slow curveballs all night, way down there at 79-82 mph, but mixed his pitches and velocities around for the whole outing. Stroman&#8217;s chart looks normal. He mixes his pitches well, and he&#8217;s know for having five or six good ones at his disposal. This is how, we are told, he keeps hitters in check.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve established what a pitch chart from a successful starter with a wide mix of pitches looks like, we will shift our focus to Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez battled, and brought under control to some extent, wildness as a starter in 2015, and then proceeded get injured. After the injury he returned to the bullpen. With no worries about facing a lineup for the second time, or so the conventional wisdom goes, he could focus on his best pitch, a 96-98mph sinker. Even as sinkers go, it&#8217;s a remarkable pitch.</p>
<p>In 2016, of course, he earned a slot in the rotation again. According to popular theory, he needs to find a three pitch mix in order to survive multiple times through a big league lineup. His pitch mix from each year in the majors is as follows.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-pitch-perc-by-year.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1737" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-pitch-perc-by-year.png" alt="sanchez pitch perc by year" width="785" height="205" /></a></p>
<p>Now that&#8217;s not a big change from 2014 to 2015 when viewed as an entire season&#8217;s worth of data. A couple fewer sinkers, more curves and more changeups. Also, it looks like a three or four pitch mix: Four Seam, Sinker, Curve, Change. According to the velocity charts, the sinker and four seam fastball come in at the same average velocity. They are two different pitches, but they are equal in how long a hitter has to react.</p>
<p>I would take a position that says the pitch mix shown above is incredibly misleading. We need to zoom in. If you read my features regularly, I&#8217;m a big fan of zooming in to see what&#8217;s going on. Here is the game by game breakdown for 2016.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2016.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1738" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2016.png" alt="sanchez 2016" width="789" height="168" /></a></p>
<p>In Tampa, Sanchez (or possibly Martin if you feel he is the guiding force) really tried to mix it up. He threw almost 30 percent offspeed stuff, and it worked; he got a lot of swings and misses from a very aggressive Rays club. One run, seven innings, 91 pitches. And because it worked so well, Sanchez dumped the changeup almost entirely when facing the Yankees. That makes no sense, but it&#8217;s true! He threw more sinkers and featured more curveballs. The result: One run, six innings, 97 pitches. And, of course, because the curveball worked so well, he threw fewer of those against Boston, forgot about the changeup entirely, and it worked too! This time: One run, seven innings, 105 pitches. Everything works!</p>
<p>Who is really in charge of the choices here is a difficult to tell, since I can&#8217;t zoom inside a player&#8217;s head to learn the reasoning behind these choices. The changing pitch mix might be a result of scouting reports, or his command of certain pitches on a certain day. I don&#8217;t know. The fact remains, Sanchez does not need to &#8220;keep hitters off balance&#8221; to be successful. So far they haven&#8217;t solved any of his patterns. And as we are about to see, &#8220;patterns&#8221; may be overstating his pitching strategy here.</p>
<p>Now we finally get to the image that sent me on the long quest for answers about Aaron Sanchez&#8217; pitch mix:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/vs-boston-velo-chart-green.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1739" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/vs-boston-velo-chart-green.png" alt="vs boston velo chart green" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>This is the Sanchez velocity chart for his start at Fenway. I have added some green lines for effect. Between pitch 21 and pitch 83, Sanchez threw exactly two pitches that were not fastballs. That&#8217;s 60 out of 62 pitches where Boston players had a pretty good idea what would be coming next. If you&#8217;re curious, the pitch f/x record shows one of those curveballs was a called ball, the other a called strike.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s kind of crazy. Historically Sanchez has been a contact guy with big groundball tendencies. That&#8217;s still true. Yes, he had a bunch swings and misses against the Rays, and we watched them swing early and often for the whole four game series, but Sanchez is still a contact guy. Some things have looked better though. When he was starting in 2015, he was throwing 58 percent strikes. So far 2016 has seen 63 percent strikes thrown. His first pitch strike percentage is up from 53.2 percent to 59 percent this year. As a result, batters should know what&#8217;s coming now, and expect it to be in the zone. Yet for some reason, they still can&#8217;t hit it hard. That&#8217;s good. It means that 96 mph with wicked movement is the real tool in Sanchez&#8217; arsenal.</p>
<p>Of course, I wondered, is this use of exclusively hard pitches a weird exception? Should Sanchez be trying to mix in that third and fourth pitch to keep hitters &#8220;honest&#8221; as they say? Well, in 2015, he had the opportunity to try a lot of things.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2015-pitch-mix-starter.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1736" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/sanchez-2015-pitch-mix-starter.png" alt="sanchez 2015 pitch mix starter" width="788" height="461" /></a></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s look closer at what kind of arsenal got him what sort of results. Until the April 27th start in Boston, Sanchez had all kinds of trouble finding the strike zone, meaning that those mixes might reflect far more of a struggle with command than a real plan of attack. So instead we&#8217;ll start when he began to throw more strikes. On May 2nd, he threw 66 percent fastballs, and the most curveballs of his career. On May 8th he went back up to 75 percent fastballs, and threw seven innings with five walks, but zero runs allowed. He walked six in against Cleveland in 5.2 innings. On May 13th, the threw more four-seamers than in any other start. He walked four while giving up five runs to Baltimore, in 5.2 innings pitched.  From this point on it looks like there was a decision to throw the fastball more, and when it worked, (three walks and three runs in 7. 1 innings against Anaheim), they decided to throw it even more. And then more. And then even more. For a starter, throwing 90 percent fastballs is supposed to be ridiculous. Sanchez did it anyway. Look what happened:</p>
<p>Eight solid innings against Houston. No walks. Two runs, only one of which was earned, both in the ninth inning. I present to you the velocity chart from that game:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/june-5-2015-vs-houston1.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1746" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/june-5-2015-vs-houston1.gif" alt="june 5 2015 vs houston" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve added green bars again. Again, lets look at how many fastballs he used in-between the bars. Between pitch four and pitch 64, I count two changeups and two curveballs. Houston didn&#8217;t even have to worry about the four seam fastball. It was wall-to-wall sinkers for four innings. There&#8217;s your evidence that the plan of attack against Boston wasn&#8217;t necessarily a fluke. Just like the Red Sox last week, the Astros couldn&#8217;t figure out how to hit the same pitch, coming at them over and over again.</p>
<p>When Aaron Sanchez keeps the baseball in the zone, and gets the first pitch in the zone, he&#8217;s very, very difficult to square up. This has been true even when batters should know what he&#8217;s doing. Not every pitcher can say that. If controlling the fastball is the key, let him focus on it as much as he wants. The curveball and the changeup can be implicit weapons, not explicit ones. There&#8217;s nothing in his career as a starter that says he&#8217;s any better using three pitches.</p>
<p>So, what other starting pitchers are reliant on the fastball? There were three pitchers in 2015 who qualified as starters and threw over 70 percent fastballs: Lance Lynn (85.4 percent fastballs) is close in K/9 and BB/9, but is a fly ball pitcher (44 percent GB rate). Bartolo Colon (83.8 percent fastballs) throws 88 mph, not 95, so it&#8217;s not the same method as Sanchez. Mike Pelfrey (73.9 percent fastballs) can&#8217;t strike anybody out (5.12 K/9 career), and uses a split finger as his second pitch. He has also struggled to do more than eat innings for the last few years. This means that if Sanchez focuses on the fastball, he&#8217;ll be doing it in a way unlike any pitcher currently starting in MLB.</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is a truly unique animal, and Jays fans should be happy to have him.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bobb DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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