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	<title>Toronto &#187; Kevin Pillar</title>
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		<title>Kevin Pillar is Approaching a Career Crossroads</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/22/kevin-pillar-is-approaching-a-career-crossroads/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/22/kevin-pillar-is-approaching-a-career-crossroads/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Feb 2018 11:53:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar is probably going to be the opening day centre fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. With the recent upheaval in the Jays outfield (making this piece hilariously outdated), the certainty Pillar provides may be of some comfort to John Gibbons. He&#8217;s a plus defender in a position that demands it and has been durable [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin Pillar is probably going to be the opening day centre fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. With the recent upheaval in the Jays outfield (making <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/">this piece</a> hilariously outdated), the certainty Pillar provides may be of some comfort to John Gibbons. He&#8217;s a plus defender in a position that demands it and has been durable in a time when the Jays don&#8217;t have many constants in the lineup. You know Pillar will be there, night in and night out. He had the second most plate appearances among the Jays in 2017.</p>
<p>In order to look ahead, let&#8217;s first glance at how we got here. After starting 2015 as the starting left fielder, Pillar was quickly moved to centre and put up a career year, with 3.8 WARP in 159 games. Durable, reliable, and spectacular on defense, Pillar cemented his place in the lineup &#8211; able to thrive defensively on a team with many offensive stars. 2016 wasn&#8217;t quite as good, though the Jays had too many other questions for them to look too hard at a guy who was still making the minimum. Pillar was found money &#8211; someone who&#8217;d overachieved to get where he was &#8211; and the Jays didn&#8217;t really need to change that.</p>
<p>But 2017 wasn&#8217;t any better than 2016. After a hot first couple of months in the leadoff spot, Pillar absolutely cratered at the plate, ending the year almost exactly where he&#8217;d been in years prior. <a title="How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">Pre-season talk of changing his approach</a> didn&#8217;t amount to much, leaving his defense as his main calling card. That wouldn&#8217;t have been much comfort to a team that had many black holes in the lineup even if the outfield play had remained the same, but Pillar&#8217;s defense seemed to have slipped from the meteoric heights of 2015.</p>
<p>2017 was worse for the outfield as a whole, too. Injuries and ineffectiveness had the Jays sometimes scrambling for bodies to man the corners beside Pillar. Twelve different players played the outfield for the Jays in 2017. This only served to highlight Pillar&#8217;s decline: of those twelve names, Pillar finished tied for seventh in WARP, as much as Darrel Ceciliani (who played three games) and Dwight Smith. Among the names ahead of Pillar: Nori Aoki (who played twelve games), Michael Saunders (ditto), and even Jose Bautista (who somehow graded well in FRAA).</p>
<p>Pillar can be a useful piece on the right team. For the 2015 Blue Jays (Pillar&#8217;s best year by BP&#8217;s measurements), having Pillar at the bottom of the lineup was a boon. His stellar defense in centre masked deficiencies in the players on either side of him and a hit-or-miss bat wasn&#8217;t as much of a problem when the rest of the lineup was absolutely mashing. You could live with the hot and cold streaks when you had several better hitters in front of him.</p>
<p>The offensive decline of the Blue Jays since then has brought a spotlight to Pillar&#8217;s own deficiencies with the bat. While other players not carrying the load was more of a problem, Pillar&#8217;s free-swinging ways became more noticeable. Bold talk of wanting to hit leadoff generally didn&#8217;t last long, as Pillar&#8217;s approach and results were never a fit for someone who would be getting the most plate appearances of anyone on the team. And Pillar&#8217;s defense hasn&#8217;t as good since 2015, whether by random fluctuation or by some decline in effort or skill by someone who was never projected to be that good of a defensive player. Still, he had provided some surplus value.</p>
<p>Where the problem starts for the Jays will be Pillar&#8217;s contract. The 29 year old, in his first year of arbitration, will be making $3.25 million dollars. $3.25 million isn&#8217;t much, but it&#8217;s not this year that concerns the team. Pillar is going to get more expensive as he goes through arbitration and a team with other financial burdens may question whether a below average offensive player with potentially declining defense is worth that kind of money and a regular spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays didn&#8217;t look too hard at Pillar this off-season and his new expense, an understandable decision given the many other questions they already had, but that will change.</p>
<p>The Jays have also gotten much stronger depth in the outfield. The 2017 Jays had no one knocking at the door for a regular spot, save for the oft-injured Dalton Pompey. They also had a left field platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Steve Pearce, two guys who were likely to see the bench before Pillar. This year, however, the Jays added Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk to make a crowded big league corner outfield situation, and have Teoscar Hernandez joining Anthony Alford and Pompey as outfield prospects, likely to knock on the door before too long. With Pillar&#8217;s recent struggles, it&#8217;s likely his spot on the roster could come into question if one of Alford or Hernandez starts out hot in the minors, or if the incumbent struggles out of the gate.</p>
<p>2018 is going to be a telling year for the Blue Jays and their regular centre fielder. Pillar has been a fan favourite for his defense and one of a few players left from the magical 2015 playoff run. Perhaps he&#8217;s still riding the coattails of that year; highlights and memories etched into us so indelibly that we can&#8217;t bear to think of a Jays team without him. Or maybe there is another chapter for Pillar, an improvement that sticks, and he can bridge the gap to the next great Blue Jays squad. For a player who wasn&#8217;t graded highly as a prospect, and was never expected to be a regular, he&#8217;s already exceeded expectations to get as far as he has. He&#8217;s still got time to prove the doubters wrong again, but that time is running short.</p>
<p>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 11:21:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention: Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see if there’s a way to upgrade or complement in our outfield.”</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/949781617106546688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The focus from some was on the first part of the quote, where Atkins said they felt like they could start the season with the outfielders they have. While he goes on to say they do want to upgrade, it was the first half that drew the most attention and the most ire from fans.</p>
<p>Given the state of the Jays outfield, that reaction is understandable. There are no stars in this bunch and not much in the way of established regulars. Kevin Pillar is probably the best of them and that&#8217;s not a great spot for a team that has designs on contending. Pillar is a fine defender in centre field, but has established himself as a below average hitter at this point. Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s career year still had him just under 1 WARP in 131 games, Steve Pearce hits well, defends poorly and can&#8217;t stay healthy, and Teoscar Hernandez, while a solid prospect, was deemed expendable by the World Series champion Astros. There are warts to be found here.</p>
<p>Assuming no upgrades (or that new Jay Yangervis Solarte won&#8217;t play the outfield for the first time since 2014), could the Jays enter the season with the outfield they have? Could they succeed? Let&#8217;s look at some scenarios where they could live, or even thrive, with the outfielders they have currently.</p>
<h3>And Teoscar Goes To&#8230; The Rogers Centre And Hits Dingers All The Time</h3>
<p>Even if Teoscar Hernandez wasn&#8217;t the brightest light in the Astros system, he was still a worthwhile prospect close to the major leagues &#8211; something the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t have a lot of when they acquired him. There were concerns: not fast enough to play centre field, not enough of a bat to play the corner, and he struck out a lot. But, again, the Jays weren&#8217;t in a position to be choosy. That they got an actual prospect for Francisco Liriano was amazing enough.</p>
<p>Hernandez had a solid showing for the Jays after being called up late in the season, hitting 8 home runs in just 95 at-bats. He did strike out 36 times, a concerning number for that amount of at-bats. And there&#8217;s the old adage about not believing anything you see in April and September.</p>
<p>Still, Hernandez is mostly a blank slate at the major league level, someone on whom the Jays can project hope and see the potential for something greater than what he&#8217;s shown so far. He COULD be a star. He could also struggle, as some prospects do in the their first actual shot at the majors. There&#8217;s a wide range of possible outcomes.</p>
<p>The other point to make is that Hernandez would essentially be replacing Jose Bautista. On the whole, it&#8217;s unlikely that Hernandez will ever get close to Bautista&#8217;s accomplishments in his career as a Blue Jay. But the 2017 version of Jose Bautista had an awful season, with a stat line of .203/.308/.366, good for a tAV of only .237. That&#8217;s not a terribly high bar to clear.</p>
<p>So we can say that Hernandez, given a wide open space in the lineup, could easily be better than the man he&#8217;s replacing. He could be a star. But what if he scuffles? What if he bounces between the majors and AAA? How else could the Jays outfield work as it is?</p>
<h3>A Carrera/Pearce Platoon Holds Serve</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s very little exciting about a potential Carrera/Pearce platoon in left field. But it could be worse. The 2017 Jays opened the season with both Carrera AND Pearce in the lineup. The theory was that Pearce would split his time between first base and left field and Carrera would start some in left while backing up in centre and right. We know how that went: Pearce got hurt, Justin Smoak became an all-star, and Carrera had a career year.</p>
<p>Carrera and Pearce are known quantities to Jays fans by this point, but that can be a good thing. They do have some contrasting skills. Pearce provides some right-handed power. Carrera bats left-handed, makes some contact, gets on base, and doesn&#8217;t completely embarrass himself in the field. There&#8217;s an easy platoon in that.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need a lot from the left field position. 2 WARP would have been good enough for 16th in baseball among left fielders last season and Carrera and Pearce combined for nearly that between them. So while it&#8217;s unlikely that Carrera or Pearce will suddenly find another gear, it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need them to be that much better.</p>
<h3>The Rest Of The Lineup Improves</h3>
<p>This is the most likely scenario. When the Jays&#8217; lineup was a juggernaut in 2015, mauling opponents night in and night out, it was at least in part due to the depth of the lineup. Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson were the headliners, but them being great made it easier for the supporting cast to contribute. And when October rolled around, having the depth they had made it easier for them to carry the bat of someone like Ryan Goins, who hit only in theory during that playoff run.</p>
<p>When we look at the Jays&#8217; potential 2017 lineup, there are a lot of hitters. Donaldson and Smoak are the headliners, with Devon Travis and Russell Martin still able to bring value with the bat. Troy Tulowitzki is a question mark, and Kendrys Morales may have disappointed last season, but there&#8217;s pedigree in those names as guys who have been good previously and could potentially be that good again.</p>
<p>Another help for the lineup: the Jays are better insulated against injury. The acquisitions of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte give them better depth if someone gets hurt again. There will be no more seeing Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins anchor the bottom of the order. Solarte could even be an outfield option, having spent time there in 2014.</p>
<p>So there&#8217;s a lot of ways the Jays could well stand pat with what they have and be fine in 2017. While the current outfield situation isn&#8217;t ideal, the Jays aren&#8217;t short of options. Ross Atkins is absolutely right: while the Jays should look to upgrade, they could absolutely start the season with what they have and be fine.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>It’s Time for the Blue Jays to Trade Kevin Pillar</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/its-time-for-the-blue-jays-to-trade-kevin-pillar/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14078</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar. Everybody knows [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>Everybody knows why Kevin Pillar is valuable; there are no ambiguities about where his talents lie. The 29-year-old&nbsp;is good because he gets to balls in the outfield that a lot of other plays can&#8217;t get to, thus making life a lot easier on the Blue Jays&#8217; pitching staff. But&nbsp;it&#8217;s an oversimplification to&nbsp;just assume that reputation holds as true now as it did when Pillar started to burst onto the scene&nbsp;and into walls in 2015. In fact, the evidence suggests that Pillar has had quite a dramatic downturn in his defensive skills recently. Going by the Statcast numbers, Pillar completely changed in 2017, costing the Blue Jays two outs relative to the average fielder, whereas he earned them an extra 15 outs in 2016.</p>
<p>That difference can be seen most dramatically in what Statcast refers to as four star and five star plays, the hardest outfielders can make. In 2016, Pillar converted 64 and 22 percent of his opportunities for making these plays, respectively. That accounts for 16 four star plays made, and nine five star plays. In 2017, those percentages shrunk to 26.7% and 0.0%, equaling raw totals of 4 and 0 plays made respectively. That is a big swing in plays that Pillar once made, that he didn&#8217;t convert on in 2017.</p>
<p>This is important because Pillar is who he is at the plate. He won&#8217;t be changing anytime soon. He has talked about being a different hitter many times in the past, but in the end, once the sample size increases and small discrepancies are weeded out, Pillar is still the player who is overzealous at the plate and is very liberal with what he swings at. Because of that,&nbsp;the value he provides offensively is virtually non-existent, if not detrimental&nbsp;in the aggregate. Therefore, his entire value lies with his fielding. And if his fielding has shrunk as the statistics would seem to say (If Statcast data wasn&#8217;t enough for you, FRAA, DRS, and UZR all agree with the sentiment as well), then we have already seen Pillar&#8217;s prime, and it would be wise to get off the train now.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays decide to make Pillar available, they are in a unique situation this winter because there are not many&nbsp;centre field options available on the open market, yet there are a few suitors. Lorenzo Cain is the only free agent who is definitively better than Pillar at this time, as Jarrod Dyson has faded and is now recovering from surgery, while Carlos Gomez probably should be in a corner outfield spot when play starts in 2018.&nbsp;As for teams that could use a centerfielder, the lists includes the Rangers, Royals, Brewers, Mets, Giats, and Mariners, though&nbsp;I&#8217;m sure that list would expand if the Blue Jays were looking to trade Pillar.</p>
<p>Of course, trading Pillar doesn&#8217;t make much sense if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t have a replacement for him. Making one hole to fill another isn&#8217;t how you build a good baseball team. Luckily, the Blue Jays have accrued outfield depth in recent years and would be able to replace Pillar if traded. The list of possible names include Anthony Alford, Teoscar Hernandez, and even Dalton Pompey, if you somehow believe there is something left there.</p>
<p>Alford had a very good 2017 campaign when he wasn&#8217;t dealing with the injury he suffered in his brief call up to Toronto and although the team was dealing with a roster situation when they originally brought him up, they wouldn&#8217;t have made that move and started his clock without the belief that he could play in the majors. Scouts rave about his defense and when the bar to clear offensively is Kevin Pillar, it&#8217;s hard to believe that he wouldn&#8217;t be able to at least mimic that performance.</p>
<p>For Hernandez,&nbsp;I think most would agree that his offensive talent exceeds that of Pillar&#8217;s. The question for him would be if his defense translates to centre field or if he is better suited for a corner spot. More than likely the answer is that he does belong in left or right field, but again, if the bar to exceed is the value Pillar puts up, I think it would be reasonable to assume that the offensive gain would be bigger than the defensive loss.</p>
<p>The&nbsp;reasoning behind all of this is that the Blue Jays must get something in return for trading Pillar. Discussing what they may get is a fool&#8217;s errand, because unless you&#8217;re in the front office, you don&#8217;t know how teams value him. However, no matter what, the Blue Jays would save money from ridding themselves of Pillar and deciding to play Alford or Hernandez. Both of those players are scheduled to make the league minimum in 2018, while Pillar is <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html" target="_blank">projected </a>for a salary of $4.0 million according to MLBTR. Those $3.5 million in savings could go along way to helping this club&nbsp;build when it seems like the team currently only has about $25 million to spend this off-season.</p>
<p>Pillar has had a fantastic career in Toronto, no doubt. He has&nbsp;overachieved since being drafted, but his value is correlated directly to his success in the outfield. If that success is slowly coming to an end as he ages, he all of a sudden doesn&#8217;t become the best use of $4 million when players exist within the Blue Jays system that could provide similar value for an eighth of the cost. If that means Pillar should be traded, it&#8217;s been nice while it lasted. But in the end, the team has to make the smart move to build the best possible roster from player one through 25.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:&nbsp;Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Jays Journal <a href="https://jaysjournal.com/2017/11/06/blue-jays-maybe-now-right-time-trade-kevin-pillar/" target="_blank">recently published</a> a piece on the idea of trading Pillar as well. This article was started prior to the Jays Journal article being released.</em></p>
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		<title>Which of 2017&#8217;s Disappointing Blue Jays are Poised to Bounce Back?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/23/which-2017s-disappointing-blue-jays-are-poised-to-bounce-back/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Oct 2017 13:59:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13958</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It should go without saying at this point, but just in case you weren’t paying attention for the last six months or so, not a lot went right for the Blue Jays this season. It could also be said that way more than expected did go right for the team in 2015 and 2016, but [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It should go without saying at this point, but just in case you weren’t paying attention for the last six months or so, not a lot went right for the Blue Jays this season. It could also be said that way more than expected did go right for the team in 2015 and 2016, but there’s no denying that 2017 saw a number of declines and poor fortunes that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/the-season-that-was-exaggerated-oversold-and-bound-to-disappoint/" target="_blank">we either didn’t expect to see or willfully ignored</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than go over the current state of baseball, which would involve either talking about random Twitter beefs or giving even marginal praise to the recently-eliminated Yankees, I decided to wade through the muck of last season to catch up on a few Jays who were letdowns and look at whether a bounce back could be in order.</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez</h3>
<p>This one is essentially a free space, as Sanchez was limited to just 36 innings due to persistent blister issues. He had poor numbers across his eight starts, no doubt helped along by his finger troubles. Sanchez surrendered career-highs with 10.5 H/9 and 5.0 BB/9 and watched his strikeout rate sink to boot. For a guy with a deadly sinker, Sanchez also achieved just a 48 percent ground ball rate, this after topping 55 percent in each of his first three seasons.</p>
<p>Even though things weren’t going great in general, he still had room for some rotten luck. His HR/FB ratio jumped from 10.7 to 17.1% and he was stuck with a BABIP of .310 despite no substantial change in the amount of hard contact he gave up. Somehow, Sanchez’s 5.71 ERA actually outperformed his Deserved Run Average (DRA), which sat at a ghastly 6.96 mark.</p>
<p>In fact, Sanchez actually had the worst season of any Blue Jays pitcher by WARP, accumulating a -0.56 mark in his abbreviated campaign. J.P. Howell was at 0.14. Even Jason Grilli was at 0.17. If Sanchez can get his fingers back to full strength, there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’s going to return to form in 2018. If nothing else, he almost has to get better results than these.</p>
<h3>Kendrys Morales</h3>
<p>Morales hit a few timely early-season homers when the rest of the batters were struggling &#8211; and the fact that we can point to his season achievement as “being the best of a bad bunch for a couple minutes” will tell you most of what you need to know. With a line of .258/.308/.445, it was a major letdown from Toronto’s supposed stalwart at DH. Do not be fooled by the 28 homers and 85 RBI – this was a dreadful season by just about any measure that goes past the surface level.</p>
<p>Among 206 hitters with 400 or more plate appearances, Morales’ WARP of -.50 put him 193<sup>rd</sup>overall. His TAv of .254 puts him at a much more palatable 166<sup>th</sup> on the same list, but we’re not going over a very high bar here.</p>
<p>Are there signs of hope? Maybe, sort of. Morales has rebounded from ugly seasons before. In 2014 he posted -0.6 WARP in 39 games with Minnesota and tacked on another -0.2 in 59 games with the Mariners. He followed that up with years of 2.3 and 1.2 WARP in Kansas City. Additionally, Morales continued to hit the ball incredibly hard. Among players with at least 150 batted ball events, Morales was ninth in the league with an average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour.</p>
<p>Now for the bad part. Morales hit far more grounders than he did in Kansas City, meaning his hard hit balls had much lower chances of turning into hits than they did in the past two years. He continued to have a hard time with breaking pitches and saw curveballs on 16 percent of pitches this season, well up from the 11.8 percent he saw in 2016. How much of a hard time, you ask? Morales posted a career-worst season in terms of contact rate (the percentage of pitches swung on where contact is made; 71 percent against a career average of 75.8 percent), zone contact rate (81 percent in 2017 with a career average of 86 percent) while also shattering his career high in terms of swinging strike rate (29 percent easily surpassed his previous career-worst of 25.7 percent from 2012).</p>
<p>At age 34, hoping for a complete turnaround in so many areas is asking for a lot.</p>
<p>Morales’s presence on the roster has suddenly become an unavoidable obstacle following Justin Smoak’s breakout. With Smoak now deserving full-time at bats at first, Steve Pearce loses playing time at one spot he was signed to shore up. That forces the injury-prone Pearce into the outfield, which is bad news for everyone involved. Given the need to keep players like Pearce and Josh Donaldson healthy, the team would be wise to open up DH at bats for both. Suddenly the Jays have $23 million on the books for a part-time DH, lest they choose to play him regularly for the rest of his decline.</p>
<p>With few attractive ways to offload this contract, there’s going to be some more days off in Morales’ future. Getting less playing time might be better for the on field product, but it’s far from ideal for a team with oft-discussed payroll limitations.</p>
<h3>Kevin Pillar</h3>
<p>Remember when Kevin Pillar talked the talk about <a title="How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">changing his approach</a>? And then when he did it for a little bit? Well things didn’t go so great the rest of the way.</p>
<p>He posted OBPs of .339 and .328 in April/March and May, drawing 15 walks in his first 51 games. Pillar would then go on to walk 18 times over his last 103 games of the year, posting an OBP of .282 in that time – well down from his career .302 mark. That list of hitters with 400 plate appearances? The one where Morales ranked 193<sup>rd</sup>? Pillar was 187<sup>th</sup> with a WARP of -.05. This all happened despite Pillar setting a career high in zone swing rate and posting a sterling 93.3 percent zone contact rate.</p>
<p>Pillar’s reality isn’t exactly an untenable situation, but the sudden decline of so many other spots in the lineup around him only highlighted the problem. When this team is at full health, Pillar really won’t need to be occupying a high-profile spot in the lineup. Of course, counting on this particular roster (as currently constructed, at least) to stay at full health for long might be a big ask.</p>
<p>Still, Teoscar Hernandez’s presence should at least give the Jays a viable alternative if they insist on going with a traditional leadoff man. Lord knows they need it after Pillar logged 270 of his 632 plate appearances atop the order. For reference, Pillar made just 184 plate appearances from the bottom third of the order. We often wring our hands far too much about lineup construction, but this is pretty blatant.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that first chunk of the season looks like a mirage; a window that let us look at a better world for about 50 games of bliss (if you focus on his production only and not, you know, everything else). You hope Pillar will bounce back in the sense that his last two thirds of the year were well under his career numbers, but it’d be silly to count on a return to the .330-plus OBP levels unless there’s a noticeable, sustained change in approach. Here’s hoping that it sticks next time around.</p>
<h3>Roberto Osuna</h3>
<p>Osuna presents the most curious case of the bunch, though there is a pretty quick and convenient explanation for his second half struggles.</p>
<p>The first half of that story, however, is that Osuna actually had a very strong season by several advanced measures. He posted a career-best 2.1 WARP in a career-low 64 innings. He also posted career-bests in BB/9 (1.3), K/9 (11.7), ground ball rate (47 percent) and HR/9 (a minuscule 0.4). Digging deeper, he also posted his personal bests in out-of-zone swing rate, swinging strike rate and contact rate.</p>
<p>Things begin to diverge with his zone rate – simply the percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone. After two years above 50 percent, Osuna slipped down to just 43.9 percent this season. On pitches he did land in the zone, contact was made on over 80 percent of them – up from 78 percent a year ago and just 73 percent as a rookie.</p>
<p>Piecing that all together, it seems like Osuna got lots of swings and misses on his pitches, but primarily on those that were out of the zone. Hitters were able to make contact with anything in the zone better than ever before, which brings us to the elephant in the room.</p>
<p>Osuna famously lost some fastball velocity in July and August, leading to a handful of painful blown saves and close losses where the team’s previously-dependable closer wilted at the worst possible time. Those rough outings followed stretches <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/whats-up-with-roberto-osunas-fastball/" target="_blank">where Osuna was called on multiple times with limited rest</a>, as he averaged just 1.2 days off between appearances while working in 21 games from the All Star break to the end of August.</p>
<p>His fastball velocity actually increased in September and October when he averaged 3.4 days between outings. Though he certainly would’ve traded the days off for a spot in the hunt, nobody benefited more than Osuna from the team’s quick exit from the playoff picture. Hopefully a long winter (with no World Baseball Classic this time) keeps him a bit fresher.</p>
<p>The anatomy of a losing season is deep and complex and the front office should be cooking up all sorts of fixes for the offseason. While newcomers, either promotions from the lower levels or new faces from other organizations, are always a welcome sight after a disappointing campaign, there’s a few reasons to believe that some of Toronto’s disappointments in 2017 will come back looking a little more like their usual selves. This team is going to need some new blood, no doubt – but for a team with visions of retooling on the fly, every little bit helps.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Imagining the Ridiculously Athletic Jays Outfield of the Future</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/imagining-the-ridiculously-athletic-jays-outfield-of-the-future/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/imagining-the-ridiculously-athletic-jays-outfield-of-the-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 May 2017 10:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ve seen Anthony Alford in the big leagues. He struck out a bunch and reached base just once, but the hit tool isn&#8217;t why he was 93rd on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; annual prospect rankings. Baseball Prospectus&#8217; latest eyewitness scouting report from Steve Givarz gives him a 55 glove grade and 70 speed grade. Alford was fresh off [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve seen Anthony Alford in the big leagues. He struck out a bunch and reached base just once, but the hit tool isn&#8217;t why he was 93rd on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; annual <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160">prospect rankings</a>. Baseball Prospectus&#8217; latest eyewitness <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=378">scouting report</a> from Steve Givarz gives him a 55 glove grade and 70 speed grade. Alford was fresh off the DL that day, so the 70 grade might not even be doing his wheels full justice. Now, of course, he&#8217;s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-place-outfielder-anthony-alford-disabled-list/">back on the DL</a>.</p>
<p>Alford wasn&#8217;t supposed to be due up until September, or even 2018, but then Kevin Pillar <a href="http://torontoist.com/2017/05/the-blue-jays-have-a-homophobia-problem-how-do-we-fix-it/">said something</a> and Darell Ceciliani <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/article/jays-ceciliani-headed-to-dl-due-to-shoulder-injury-1.756061">broke himself</a> hitting a homer. His three game stint was hardly enough to show off his tools—Alford had just three opportunities in the outfield and all were routine—but watching him flank Pillar in left last Sunday got me thinking about something exciting: the Kansas City Royals.</p>
<p>Yes, I know, there is perhaps nothing less exciting than the Kansas City Royals in 2017. They just <a href="http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/MLB/2017/05/22/Minnesota-Twins-put-Phil-Hughes-on-DL-for-biceps-injury/1951495493147/">sent Phil Hughes to the DL</a>. It&#8217;s a snoozefest. In 2014, however, the Royals were a base-hit away from winning the World Series. After their dominant bullpen, the most exciting topic in baseball was their ridiculously talented outfield. Ben Lindbergh went so far as to call it the <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/">&#8216;ultimate&#8217; outfield</a>. At Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller said, &#8220;we’re talking about what one might decide to argue is the greatest defensive outfield of all-time.&#8221; That&#8217;s not even a hot take: Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson collectively led the league in both <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&amp;stats=fld&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,d">UZR </a>and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&amp;stats=fld&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,d">DRS</a> that season while holding opponents to a minuscule .060 BABIP on fly balls.</p>
<p>Norichika Aoki prevented this from happening every game, but when the Gordon-Cain-Dyson outfield started it wasn&#8217;t just a nice boost for the Royals starting pitcher that night. It was a demoralizing blow to every hitter on the opposing team. It was like Petco Park before they moved the fences in. It was like those three were trying to kill the fly ball revolution before it even happened.</p>
<p>Why did I just write a bunch of words about Kansas City? With Alford patrolling left field and Pillar in centre, it occurred to me that the Jays were just one name away from assembling an outfield that could conceivably rival the 2014 Royals. That name belongs to a slightly concussed 23-year-old who might develop into a better true CF than any of these guys: Dalton Pompey.</p>
<p>With Bautista likely sticking around Toronto for one, maybe two more years, the Alford-Pillar-Pompey überoutfield might not see daylight until 2019. Still, it feels inevitable. And when it hits, it should generate the same buzz that the 2014 Royals got, that the pre-Marte suspension 2017 Pirates outfield got.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/scouting-reports-alford-pompey.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11150" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/scouting-reports-alford-pompey-1024x219.jpg" alt="scouting reports alford pompey" width="1024" height="219" /></a></p>
<p>Those are the available speed and defence scouting grades for Alford and Pompey. Don&#8217;t stare too long. Pompey&#8217;s stock has fallen since cracking MLB&#8217;s top-100 list in 2014, but his glove has never been in question. BP scout Chris Mellen gave it a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=145">60 grade</a>,  calling his defence the &#8220;best present aspect of [his] game in terms of polish.&#8221;</p>
<p>In non-scout jargon, he can make plays like this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RsBy7F_vhmQ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know what the exit velocity or catch probability is on that highlight, but he takes a perfect route and has elite closing speed. Barely needed to dive on a ball most centre fielders would probably try to play off a bounce.</p>
<p>Alford&#8217;s glove comes in a hair below Pompey&#8217;s, with the general criticism being that he uses his plus-plus speed to cover up inconsistent routes. If you read that again it&#8217;s not even a criticism, because plus-plus speed is always a good thing. As for the eye test, here&#8217;s the best highlight I could find:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://www.milb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=178465883&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=milb" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>Now that you&#8217;re sold on Pompey and Alford, all that&#8217;s left to do is sell you on Pillar. What&#8217;s that? You&#8217;re sold? My job here is done.</p>
<p>Of course, this ridiculously athletic outfield may never fully come to fruition. Injuries can and will strike. Pillar is somehow one of the Jays&#8217; best trade chips after Donaldson should Atkins decide to rebuild. And Gibbons will always be under pressure to play the hot bat at the expense of stellar defence. But hopefully by 2019 the value of defence will be more quantifiable and he won&#8217;t face quite the same pressure that drove Ned Yost to start Aoki over Dyson <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2014-roster.shtml">126 times</a>.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports </em></p>
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		<title>Which Blue Jays are Putting the Barrel on the Ball?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2017 10:51:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-Roster Invitees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11056</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in February I wrote an article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard here. Just [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in February I wrote an <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/barrels-of-fun…the-sweet-spot/">article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric</a> and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank">here.</a> Just the other day, Tom Tango tweeted out some visualizations of the different definitions of contact.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are the six categories of the Radial Launch Profile.<a href="https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu">https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu</a> <br />Top line is Teddies, bottom line is ?!?Alfredos <a href="https://t.co/sja9MQhhXJ">pic.twitter.com/sja9MQhhXJ</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tangotiger (@tangotiger) <a href="https://twitter.com/tangotiger/status/866271088413749251">May 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>These are some nice tight visual groupings. And some R scores very close to 1. This means that from 2015-2016, the same batters generally had similar batted ball profiles. That&#8217;s a good indication that it isn&#8217;t a statistic that is a product of luck (like hitting with RISP vs. bases empty). Players who know how to barrel the ball one year tend not to forget how to do it the next. But can you change your batted ball profile if you know what you want to do differently? Let&#8217;s explore.</p>
<p>When we look at the 2016, we can see some winners and losers based on Barrels per Batter Ball Event (Brls_DIV_BBE).</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11060" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png" alt="barrels jays 2016" width="737" height="462" /></a></p>
<p>Who might be interesting to look at? Well, I highlighted them for us. Especially since we want to see what&#8217;s happened to their numbers this season. This is the 2017 chart.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11059" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png" alt="barrels jays 2017" width="773" height="464" /></a></p>
<p>Ah, yes. I&#8217;ve left Ceciliani and Stroman on the chart. That&#8217;s really to demonstrate how intuitive &#8220;Barrels&#8221; are. Both of them have a home run and a double in very limited PA and, as a result, have unsustainable numbers in the barrels categories. Instead, let&#8217;s look at a few of the players that are more worth highlighting.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak&#8217;s Made Real Changes</h4>
<p>Smoak&#8217;s always been at the top of the ranking when considering batted ball events, but fell off significantly in Brls/PA in 2016 because he struck out 32.6% of the time. He simply did not make enough contact to do damage in a high percentage of his plate appearances. The 2017 version of Justin Smoak is more disciplined, and, back in the spring, he mentioned making a conscious decision to <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/03/12/blue-jays-justin-smoak-to-ditch-all-or-nothing-approach">not try to hit a home run every time</a> he got to the plate.</p>
<p>As a result, he&#8217;s jumped from barreling the ball in 6.5% of his plate appearances to 10.5%, which tops everyone on the Jays who plays regularly. This follows along with his strikeout rate, which dropped from 32% to 19%. Another way to measure this change in approach is with contact rate in the zone. According to FanGraphs, his zone contact rate jumped from 82% last year to 94% this year. Not swinging like everything needs to clear the fence has paid huge dividends for Smoak.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista Might be Worth Worrying About</h4>
<p>Bautista was once one of the great power hitting threats in all of baseball. We know that these kinds of hitter have a barrel per batted event percentage of between 18 and 25 percent, and a barrel per plate appearance percentage of between 9 and 11 percent. When Bautista makes contact, he does so with authority, showing up with a high rank in average flyball distance. He also has one of the better peak and average exit velocities on the team. What it doesn&#8217;t quite translate into, however, is barrels. Alex Avila, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano can barrel the ball over 20% of the time. Jose can only make it happen 9% of the time, which is Jean Segura and Kyle Seager territory. At this point in his career, Jose is still able to get on base, but not do the kind of damage he once did. You could certainly keep him up in the lineup, but it&#8217;s possible that the cleanup spot isn&#8217;t where he&#8217;s meant to be anymore.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Kevin Pillar&#8217;s Making Good on His Promise</h4>
<p>Much has been made of Pillar&#8217;s very public declaration to change his approach at the plate. In 2016, he barreled up the ball about as often as Ryan Goins, which is to say, not often at all. In 2017, he&#8217;s taken a great leap forward, going from barreling the ball in 2.7% of his batted balls to 6.7%, and from barreling the ball in 1.9% of plate appearances to 5.3%. Kevin Pillar now hits the ball with authority, even slightly more often than Bautista does over all his plate appearances. This is very strong evidence that he has been able to make a meaningful change in his approach. Remember, Barrels are about process, not results. In Pillar&#8217;s case the results have certainly followed. His tAV has jumped from .232 to .302 with the new approach, his walks are up significantly, and his strikeouts are down. Pillar wanted to confine his swings to pitches that were really hittable, and every measure we have has shown him to be successful in that regard.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Steve Pearce and Devon Travis&#8217; Numbers Are Diverging</h4>
<p>I grouped Steve Pearce and Devon Travis together for a reason. In 2016, in a platoon role, Pearce was the far superior power hitter, and Travis looked like a middle infielder with little to no pop in his bat. In 2017, Travis got of to a rough start, but he&#8217;s been tearing the cover off the ball recently. Meanwhile, Pearce got incosistent playing time and then got hurt. Their Statcast profiles, however, come out incredibly similar in 2017. They max velocity, average distance, barrels per batted event, and barrels per plate appearance are all within a digit or two of one another. It&#8217;s no surprise Pearce&#8217;s tAV sits at .215 and Travis&#8217; sits at .224. Again, the process predicts the results—both players have been worth -0.2 WARP. We should watch and see if their fortunes diverge once Pearce returns from injury.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The Blue Jays Aren&#8217;t Barrelling</h4>
<p>Looking at the chart as a whole, one other thing becomes clear. The Blue Jays are not, as a group, barrelling up the ball nearly as much as they did in 2016. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 8.8% and 4.8% were buried in the middle of the list last year, but now his 9.0% and 5.2% are, essentially, fourth on the team. The lineup simply isn&#8217;t made up of guys who hit a lot of homers or doubles into the gap. That isn&#8217;t the only way to score runs, of course, since the 2017 team has scored 186 runs after 45 games, and the 2016 team has scored only 183. Maybe some of John Gibbons&#8217; bunt and squeeze tactics are a result of him not seeing anyone who can hit the ball with authority and reacting accordingly.</p>
<p>Either way, there are things that we can learn from barrelled balls. First off, we can see that, over and over again, the nature of the contact with the ball is consistent with the quality of the result. There is no way to defend against a barrelled ball, and if you&#8217;re aware of a way to nudge the launch angle and exit velocity into a certain zone as a hitter, you should absolutely do that. The other lesson, from Smoak and Pillar, is that a change in approach can help a hitter with a hole in his game. Smoak didn&#8217;t need to make harder or better contact, he needed to make it more often. Pillar didn&#8217;t need to make more contact overall, he needed to make it in the strike zone. Teams can use this type of data (obviously with more sophistication) to target players where small changes might offer big payoffs. The small sliver of Statcast data that the public has access to offers an opportunity to change what skills are valued in the game, imagine what teams will be doing with the whole database at their fingertips.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:</em> <em>Nick Turchiaro</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Kevin Pillar Needs to Do Better</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/kevin-pillar-needs-to-do-better/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/kevin-pillar-needs-to-do-better/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 May 2017 10:59:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I wasn&#8217;t watching the game last night. I was cursorily following along on Twitter when I saw that tensions between Atlanta and the Blue Jays were getting high. It started because Jason Motte quick pitched, and in response, Kevin Pillar appeared to have yelled a homophobic slur at him. That’s unacceptable. That should be grounds for [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wasn&#8217;t watching the game last night. I was cursorily following along on Twitter when I saw that tensions between Atlanta and the Blue Jays were getting high. It started because Jason Motte quick pitched, and in response, Kevin Pillar appeared to have <a href="https://twitter.com/BlakeTheRxGuy/status/865032187342618625">yelled a homophobic slur</a> at him.</p>
<p>That’s unacceptable. That should be grounds for a suspension, or a large fine at the very least given MLB&#8217;s insane punishment rules.</p>
<p>After the game, Pillar <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/865044821421039616" target="_blank">spoke to reporters</a> and owned up to his alleged actions, calling them “stupid”, “immature”, and “uncalled for”. He also said that he would apologize to Jason Motte for what he said.</p>
<p>That is where Pillar messed up for the second time.</p>
<p>His apology should not be limited to Motte or the Braves. He must also apologize to the LGBTQ2 community and his fans for what he appears to have said last night. Motte is not the one who has been marginalized and targeted for years because of his sexuality. It does not matter if it was a “heat of the moment” thing, because no situation should arise where a person says such a word. There are plenty of “bad” words that could have been used in that situation that would not come with the awful history and offensive nature of the word he did use.</p>
<p>Baseball perpetuates a culture of toxic masculinity daily with the “no crying” mentality that is so dominant in today’s game, and this is just another example of that unfortunate reality. I have only been in a major league clubhouse as a reporter a few times in my life, but it doesn&#8217;t take more than five minutes inside of one to realize that these grown men that we idolize in our society are not the greatest role models. Unfortunately, the “locker room talk” phenomenon is real, and because of it, “mistakes” like the one Pillar claimed to have made last night are going to happen. Thus the excuse of anger does not hold up, because in reality, we are aware that this word is only in his vocabulary because it has a life around him.</p>
<p>In September 2012, then Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar had played a game with a homophobic message written on his eye black. It was caught on camera, and he was suspended three games, while the Blue Jays donated his salary from that time frame to You Can Play and other organizations. In his apology, Escobar said he and his teammates were shocked at the outrage because the word is a joke. Omar Vizquel <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/blue-jays-yunel-escobar-apologizes-for-homophobic-slur">said</a>, “it’s a regular word for us that we use all the time.” This is the same problem that still exists today, almost five years later. The culture has not changed.</p>
<p>Pillar slipped up a third time as well. He claimed victim status in his statement. “Something to move on from”, Pillar told the media, continuing with “don’t let it define me”. This isn&#8217;t about him. It’s about the culture around him, and how his usage of the F-word, even if he is the most tolerant and accepting person normally, represents the problem. It perpetuates a culture of homophobia. Sure, Pillar can move on from this without any further statement or action, but that would be the wrong thing to do. He has that option. Unfortunately, the people he hurt while using that word do not. They will still be mistreated in society like they have been their entire lives. Pillar can pretend like this never happened, or, like he also said in his statement, he can make this “something to learn from.”</p>
<p>Pillar did something regrettable, and so far, he has owned up to it. However, that isn&#8217;t enough. When one makes a mistake, they need to show that it truly was a mistake. One word does not define a person. But acknowledging the negative power that a word can have and why it was a mistake to say it, is what defines a person. So far, Pillar&#8217;s apology sounds a lot more like he is sorry for getting caught than he is for using the word.</p>
<p>If Kevin Pillar is truly a good person, he will apologize not only to Jason Motte and the Braves, but to those who were impacted by this incident. Along with that, he should utilize his platform as a professional athlete for good, and make contributions, be it monetarily or through appearances and public support, to organizations that impact the lives of LGBTQ2 people.</p>
<p>Kevin Pillar is idolized around Canada because of how he plays. He is a fan favourite. If he is concerned about this incident defining him, then he should make it define him in a positive manner. Show that it was just a “heat of the moment” thing. Show that he is better than the history of the word. But he shouldn&#8217;t just move on from it and pretend like it didn&#8217;t happen. Not everybody is lucky enough to have that choice. If Pillar doesn&#8217;t do these things, it&#8217;s up to us to make sure he knows that is wrong. We cannot forget this incident the next time he makes a shiny catch or hits a big home run. Baseball is just a game. Peoples lives are more important.</p>
<p><strong>Update: </strong>Pillar issued the following apology this afternoon <a href="https://twitter.com/KPILLAR4/status/865269119192633345" target="_blank">via tweet</a>:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-18-at-2.20.57-PM.png"><img class=" wp-image-11000 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Screen-Shot-2017-05-18-at-2.20.57-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-05-18 at 2.20.57 PM" width="450" height="436" /></a></p>
<p>In terms of an apology, that is what you want to see. He admitted his wrongdoing, apologized to the community he offended, and said he wants to better himself. A punishment from MLB and/or the Blue Jays is still likely, and I imagine we&#8217;ll hear about that in the coming days.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Kevin Pillar Is Making Good on his Offseason Promises</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/24/kevin-pillar-is-making-good-on-offseason-promises/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/24/kevin-pillar-is-making-good-on-offseason-promises/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Apr 2017 10:48:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitter of the Week]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10353</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every week in this space, we’re going to be running down the “Hitter of the Week” for the Toronto Blue Jays. This won’t always be the best hitter, but it will always be someone who did something notable that we can break down further. Using information from games through Friday (Saturday-Friday), we will try to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Every week in this space, we’re going to be running down the “<strong>Hitter of the Week</strong>” for the Toronto Blue Jays. This won’t always be the best hitter, but it <strong>will</strong> always be someone who did something notable that we can break down further. Using information from games through Friday (Saturday-Friday), we will try to show you something interesting each and every week.</em></p>
<p>Last week, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/16/kendrys-morales-approach-is-looking-a-lot-like-edwin-encarnacions/" target="_blank">Andrew Munn gave Kendrys Morales the nod</a> as BP Toronto’s second ever Hitter of the Week. Morales earned the honor on the back of a sorely-needed walk off home run, and while he delivered another clutch blast this past week the title will change hands.</p>
<p>When you think of the Blue Jays lineup, you automatically go to the big boppers. Justin Smoak. Darwin Barney. You know the drill. Unfortunately for those two, the third recipient of Hitter of the Week honors is Kevin Pillar, who enters Monday with an 11 game hitting streak that includes three home runs and five RBI. Since the weekend games don’t count for our HotW window, Pillar’s numbers from Saturday the 15<sup>th</sup> to Friday the 21<sup>st</sup> read as follows: .393/.393/.643 with 11 hits, four doubles, a homer and two RBI. That’ll play.</p>
<p>John Gibbons took some flak for using Pillar atop the order last season but he’s more than earned the right to lead off this year, having collected seven more hits in the first 16 games in 2017 (22 total) than he had in the same span last year. <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">As our own Gideon Turk noted back in spring training</a>, Pillar’s bringing a newfound discipline to his at bats, and to this point it has been paying off even if his strikeout and walk numbers don&#8217;t look all that special. With the obvious caveat being that we have a very small sample for 2017, here’s what we&#8217;re working with:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarZSwing.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-10354 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarZSwing.jpg" alt="PillarZSwing" width="405" height="136" /></a></p>
<p>That’s good stuff. Pillar is chasing less and attacking strikes more often than he ever has as a full-time big leaguer and it looks like he&#8217;s more apt to go up the middle to boot. There&#8217;s some chicken-and-egg debates to be waged about that, but there&#8217;s a definite spike in balls hit to the center of the diamond:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarPull.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-10356 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarPull.jpg" alt="PillarPull" width="401" height="138" /></a></p>
<p>Making that more impressive is the fact that Pillar has been seeing fewer fastballs than he’s been accustomed to so far, as opposing pitchers might’ve read up on the old free-swinging KP rather than the new deluxe version:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarPitchType.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-10355 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarPitchType.jpg" alt="PillarPitchType" width="596" height="138" /></a></p>
<p>As for the past week, Pillar has done very well to limit his swings on pitches outside the zone, as the data above would indicate. For reference, here’s his swing chart from last season (left) against what he did as Hitter of the Week (right) from the catcher&#8217;s point of view. While Pillar still seems tempted by inside pitches, there&#8217;s a lot less red outside of the strike zone.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarSwing2016.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-10357 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarSwing2016-300x300.png" alt="PillarSwing2016" width="300" height="300" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarSwingHotW.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-10358 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarSwingHotW-300x300.png" alt="PillarSwingHotW" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>The kicker? Even when he was caught chasing, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/PillarWhiffHotW.png" target="_blank">he wasn’t swinging and missing very often at all</a>. Pillar has always excelled at making contact outside the zone, and now he&#8217;s still putting the ball in play even when pitchers catch him fishing.</p>
<p>These are early returns, to be sure, but Kevin Pillar looks to be in the process of putting it all together if he hasn’t done so already. He’s chasing less despite facing a higher percentage of breaking pitches and the Jays are looking at a definitively improved hitter, even if BABIP has been on his side so far. That’s Hitter of the Week material.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Mar 2017 10:30:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9806</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[DUNEDIN – Compared to years past, the Blue Jays Spring Training camp this season has been relatively quiet. There have been no outlandish contract demands from star players, no soul-crushing injuries to fan favourites, and no prospects taking everybody by surprise. That&#8217;s probably a good thing. Spring Training narratives tend to be distractions for players, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DUNEDIN – Compared to years past, the Blue Jays Spring Training camp this season has been relatively quiet. There have been no outlandish contract demands from star players, no soul-crushing injuries to fan favourites, and no prospects taking everybody by surprise. That&#8217;s probably a good thing. Spring Training narratives tend to be distractions for players, and nobody has ever benefited in baseball from being distracted. But if there has been one story that has made waves in this six week war of attrition, it has been Kevin Pillar&#8217;s decision to stop swinging. To put it simply, Kevin Pillar has been offering at an inordinate amount of pitches that he shouldn&#8217;t have been over the course of his big league career. That lack of discipline has been impacting his total offensive value, hampering him to the tune of a career .244 TAv.</p>
<p>Pillar was determined to change that aspect of his game. I&#8217;ve <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M8CeQVKRwn6bIeA54pig2GjDsc4hufu9GLGA-kiFrY0/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">been tracking his</a> plate appearances this spring, and he has had incredible results: In a total of 36 plate appearances tracked, Pillar has swung at just 16.7 percent of pitches he has seen outside the zone, or over 13 percentage points below league average and over 22 percentage points below his career average. That&#8217;s a change of over four standard deviations! On pitches in the zone, Pillar has swung at 55.2 percent of them, about 10 points below the league average and eight percentage points below his career average. I spoke to him about the change before the Blue Jays headed to Clearwater on Tuesday afternoon for their tilt with the Phillies, and he said that &#8220;[he&#8217;s] been doing the same thing for a couple of years, and [hasn&#8217;t] gotten results, so [he] needed to make a change.&#8221;</p>
<p>This was all Pillar&#8217;s doing, as well. He did some &#8220;research and self-evaluation through the internet&#8221;, which showed him that he &#8220;made a lot of soft contact, and also a lot of hard contact.&#8221; He interpreted this data in the following way.</p>
<p><i>&#8220;When I stayed in the zone and I got my pitch, I hit it well, and if I expanded the zone, I didn&#8217;t make hard contact. That led me to a lot of soft outs.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t expect him to say that he had instigated the altered approach; the club employs many data analysts, scouts, and coaches whose job is to bring out the best in their players, but instead it was Pillar himself. Why? It&#8217;s as simple as accountability and responsibility:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I&#8217;m the individual. I&#8217;ve got to be the one who wants to make the change. So, it was me doing some research, and reaching out to Brook [Jacoby], and meeting with him in the off-season. I</i><i>t&#8217;s something I am comfortable with, and something that I know is right, and I know will take me to the next level of my game.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>As a fan, it&#8217;s very easy to wonder why it took Pillar so long to be more selective. He&#8217;s been a professional hitter for over six seasons. How hard can it be to identify a bad pitch, and then not swing? Well, Pillar says that wasn&#8217;t his problem.</p>
<p>&#8220;<i>It&#8217;s never been an issue of identifying for me. It&#8217;s been an issue of just wanting to swing the bat. Not being selective or waiting for my pitch. It was more the issue of swinging at any strike that was thrown up there, or [any] borderline pitch.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>That gives reason to believe that this approach change will actually last. Pillar now knows what is right, and that while he used to just want to swing, he is fine now with holding back more often. Why does Pillar think this will endure throughout the regular season? While he knows it can be hard to predict the future in this game, this is what the Toronto outfielder had to say:</p>
<p><em><em>&#8220;That&#8217;s the million dollar question&#8230;</em></em><i>I just kind of feel like it&#8217;s who I am now, and it&#8217;s a part of me. It&#8217;s just a matter of going out there and being consistent with it, and understanding that the way I view success is a little bit different now.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>That last part is particularly interesting. When we talk about the physical and statistical aspects of sports, it is usually to the neglect of the mental side. Yet here it is on full display; Pillar had to change his personal definition of big league success before he was able to change anything about his play. Without that internal shift, none of this is possible.</p>
<p>That success isn&#8217;t going to manifest itself in just laying off of pitches way out of the zone, though. As the data from spring training confirms, Pillar wants to lay off pitches in the zone as well, and his studies this off-season reflect that, as he said that a big part of it &#8220;was just learning how to be disciplined enough to hold off [on] pitches that may be good pitches but not the ones I&#8217;m looking for.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;It&#8217;s never been an issue of identifying for me. It&#8217;s been an issue of just wanting to swing the bat.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>What practical difference does that make? Well, a lot of it is about having two strikes in the count, and the shift in the attack strategy that usually occurs for batters at that moment.</p>
<p><i>&#8220;There is a process in the way you get to two strikes. I might see a breaking ball early, even though I&#8217;m not looking for it. The pitcher gives me a lot of information&#8230; A lot of times I feel comfortable getting to two strikes because I&#8217;ve seen a couple of different pitches that they have, and it has given me information on where I need to see stuff starting [in the pitcher&#8217;s delivery] in order to lay off bad pitches.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>So where does this all leave Pillar heading into the season? Well, plate discipline data usually takes <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-samples-become-reliable/" target="_blank">50 plate appearances</a> to become reliable, and the tracker only includes 36 tracked plate appearances to this point. 14 additional plate appearances with a reversed trend could skew the data back to his career norms, but the numbers don&#8217;t really matter in this case, at least to me. They are just there to reinforce everything Pillar has said. He ended our interview by revealing his goal for 2017:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Just stay with my process that I&#8217;ve worked on all spring training, understand that it is right, and judge myself off of my approach, rather than results &#8211; live and die with that the whole year. I really need to think about [the] team first, and understand that if I&#8217;m out there and playing, and can stay healthy, I give [the team] a better chance to win a World Series.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Yogi Berra once said that baseball is 90 percent mental. Plate discipline is exactly the same. Pillar said he wanted to make a change this spring, so he made it. There is no reason to believe he&#8217;ll revert to his former self just because the calendar says April on it instead of March.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/DylCoch" target="_blank">@dylcoch</a> for all of his help with the tracker this spring. </em></p>
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		<title>One Potential Fix for Kevin Pillar&#8217;s Hitting Woes</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/02/one-potential-fix-for-kevin-pillars-hitting-woes/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2017 12:10:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Plate Discipline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8819</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Late last week, Gideon Turk wondered what would happen if Kevin Pillar were more like Vladimir Guerrero. The seemingly ridiculous question was actually anything but, predicated on the idea that Guerrero was unnaturally good at getting hits when he made contact on balls out of the zone, whereas most of Pillar’s such contact turns into [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Late last week, Gideon Turk <a title="What If Kevin Pillar Was Vladimir Guerrero?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/27/what-if-kevin-pillar-was-vladimir-guerrero/" target="_blank">wondered what would happen</a> if Kevin Pillar were more like Vladimir Guerrero. The seemingly ridiculous question was actually anything but, predicated on the idea that Guerrero was unnaturally good at getting hits when he made contact on balls out of the zone, whereas most of Pillar’s such contact turns into outs. It was mostly a hypothetical thought experiment (though an interesting one) looking at how Pillar’s numbers would be changed, but nothing more.</p>
<p>As it turns out, there is an adjustment that could actually improve his hard contact both in <em>and </em>out of the zone, while also raising his walk rate: standing closer to the plate.</p>
<p>Pillar always sets up roughly in the middle of the box. From watching him over the years I’ve begun to notice he has pretty unusual plate coverage. I believed his batters box placement is at least partially to blame, so I decided to test it as best I could.</p>
<p>Take this swing on opening day against Dana Eveland:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bAxjcjT15gY/WJJBfQBSu0I/AAAAAAAADS0/YuD2pBNmmqAAkjLjDDcOiuG-5pC-9bNsQCL0B/h262/PillarF2.gif" alt="" width="475" height="262" /></p>
<p>Or this one against the Angels’ Daniel Wright:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-A416RBlLhVQ/WJI6QvwfBOI/AAAAAAAADQ4/kZ41JEVpiPcYsGbyPlgJ1dePtdPdtRkcQCL0B/h263/Pillar2.gif" alt="" width="475" height="263" /></p>
<p>Do you notice how in both of those gifs, Pillar falls towards the first base side after fouling off mediocre fastballs on the outer third of the plate (especially the Wright gif)? His balance is thrown off by the nature of the twist in his swing, but also with the fact that he is reaching down and away and can&#8217;t quite get there.</p>
<p>Now take a look at this one, against the Orioles’ Vance Worley:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9LFp8qhd4uk/WJI7amkmTsI/AAAAAAAADRU/yfkkTn2006gsiwLk1yWQsU0b9nbK95lOwCL0B/h248/PillarDinger.gif" alt="" width="475" height="248" /></p>
<p>That pitch is in off the plate and Pillar hammers it to left field for a home run. After he finishes his swing, he is able to hold his balance before starting his run towards first base, which differs from the uncontrolled fall in the previous two swings.</p>
<p>Obviously those are very specific examples, but they were included so that you have a visual representation of what I am about to show you statistically.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/ISO-combined.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8820" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/ISO-combined.png" alt="ISO combined" width="700" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>The charts above show Pillar’s Isolated Power rates for both 2016 (left) and his career (right) by location (from the catcher&#8217;s point of view). Last year, Pillar hit for more power in every single spot inside off the plate than he did on the outer third of the strike zone. Even for his career, the only area where he is better on the plate is in the upper outside corner. If a player has plate coverage issues, it would make sense that he would still be able to drive the ball up high, as that’s where his arms are going straight and he can get the most reach.</p>
<p>This shows up with exit velocities as well (<a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfZ=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfAB=6%7C17%7C30%7C&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;player_lookup%5B%5D=607680&amp;hfC=&amp;season=2016&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;start_speed_gt=&amp;start_speed_lt=&amp;perceived_speed_gt=&amp;perceived_speed_lt=&amp;spin_rate_gt=&amp;spin_rate_lt=&amp;exit_velocity_gt=&amp;exit_velocity_lt=&amp;launch_angle_gt=&amp;launch_angle_lt=&amp;distance_gt=&amp;distance_lt=&amp;batted_ball_angle_gt=&amp;batted_ball_angle_lt=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=start_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=0&amp;xba_gt=&amp;xba_lt=&amp;px1=&amp;px2=&amp;pz1=&amp;pz2=&amp;ss_gt=&amp;ss_lt=&amp;is_barrel=#results_pitchChart_name_607680_" target="_blank">via Statcast</a>):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Kevin-Pillar-11.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8849" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Kevin-Pillar-11.png" alt="Kevin Pillar (1)" width="353" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>The image above shows all extra-base hits for Pillar last season and in his career, broken down by exit velocity. As you can see, all the dark red dots are on the inner half.</p>
<p>With this information, it’s very clear that Pillar hits for much more power on pitches off the plate inside than he does on the outside edge. Now, this is somewhat logical; most hitters have much more power to their pull side than to the opposite field. As such, we need to look at overall contact as well.</p>
<p>Here are Kevin Pillar’s swinging strike rates by pitch location for both 2016 (left) and his entire career (right), again taken from the catcher’s perspective.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Pillar-swing-and-miss.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8822" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Pillar-swing-and-miss.png" alt="Pillar swing and miss" width="700" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>Those are broken down into specific locations and using swing and miss rates, but thankfully they give us the raw data so we can get nice totals and represent them as the cleaner contact rates:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/contact.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8853" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/contact.png" alt="contact" width="272" height="67" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, both last year and for his entire career, Kevin Pillar has done a better job making contact on pitches in off the plate than those that would be called strikes on the outer third. The power is one thing, but that difference in contact is reasonably staggering. He is clearly a much better hitter on inside pitches than on those that are actually in the zone on the outer edge.</p>
<p>This gets back to the issue of standing closer to the plate. Imagine how good Pillar’s numbers would look if you could slide each of those boxes (on both the ISO and contact grids) half a spot to the right. All of a sudden, Pillar is driving the ball on the outer third. Heck, he’d even be making better contact on pitches off the plate away.</p>
<p>That covers the plate coverage issue, but as I mentioned up at the top, this could also raise Pillar’s walk rate. That may sound a bit silly, as moving in the box doesn’t change a player’s desire to swing, but it will change what pitches he&#8217;s<em> able </em>to swing at.</p>
<p>Take a look at this pitch from Sonny Gray on July 16.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LMK7PX59ilg/WJI_Vc6J1YI/AAAAAAAADSM/C7fj4nQgrrMy491PExxlFdWqbZ3QliS5wCL0B/h261/PillarCheck.gif" alt="" width="475" height="261" /></p>
<p>Pillar tries to check his swing, but he goes around for a strike. The video makes it look bad, but the camera angle can fool you. We better check where it was actually located:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/pillar-inside.gif"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8824" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/pillar-inside.gif" alt="pillar inside" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Ok, that&#8217;s even worse. That pitch is over a <em>foot </em>inside. Moving closer to the plate would mean that pitches like that simply <em>can’t</em> be swung at. Pillar would either be diving out of the way or wearing it on his hip. That’s how the walk (and HBP) rate goes up on pitches on the inside.</p>
<p>The obvious corollary to that is that Pillar is going to swing at more pitches off the plate, and while Pillar has always been more likely to chase inside than outside (below), you are adding some swings that were in the zone before.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/swings.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8825" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/swings.png" alt="swings" width="500" height="500" /></a></p>
<p>If everything above moves a half grid to the right, you’re definitely getting some extra chase outside, but you’re also probably going to see more takes on those offerings that are now <em>way</em> outside. Pitchers simply don’t like to throw the ball that far off the plate on purpose, even to free swingers like Pillar. All of their training is to build the muscle memory to throw strikes. They’ll certainly push the boundaries occasionally, especially with right-handed sliders, but for the most part they’re going to attack a non-power hitter like Pillar because that&#8217;s what their bodies are telling them to do.</p>
<p>Now, for this plate shift to work Pillar <em>would</em> have to get used to seeing the ball from an entirely different angle, but this is something that he does every time a new pitcher comes to the mound. While it’s true that there are certain clusters where most pitchers release the ball, there is more than enough variance that any major league hitter should be able to make this adjustment.</p>
<p>Whatever they’ve tried with Pillar to this point clearly hasn’t worked. This move at least gives him a chance. As has been shown, the move closer to the plate could improve the quality and frequency of contact for Pillar both in and out of the zone, and even increase his ability to get on base without a hit. If he can even get <em>slightly</em> better at those things, he’s a star player with his work in centre field.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s time for Pillar to take that next step, and it could be as easy as stepping toward the plate.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><i>Charts via <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_landing.php?player=607680" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball</a><br />
GIFs created with special thanks to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca" target="_blank">Sportsnet</a> and <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?product=INTL" target="_blank">MLB.TV</a></i></p>
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