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	<title>Toronto &#187; Fatigue Units</title>
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		<title>The Most Heavily Used Blue Jay Pitchers in the PITCHf/x Era</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/20/the-busiest-blue-jay-pitchers-in-the-pitchfx-era/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:43:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJ Burnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Halladay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Workload isn&#8217;t as easily defined as the number of games, innings, or pitches a pitcher throws. It is an interaction of all of these things &#8211; and to summarize them all, I came up with the metric &#8220;Fatigue Units&#8221;. Well, I came up with the Metric&#8230; Jenn Smith came up with the name. In the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Workload isn&#8217;t as easily defined as the number of games, innings, or pitches a pitcher throws. It is an interaction of all of these things &#8211; and to summarize them all, I came up with the metric &#8220;Fatigue Units&#8221;. Well, I came up with the Metric&#8230; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/baseballjenn/">Jenn Smith</a> came up with the name. In the PitchFX era, we can calculate Fatigue Units by querying databases and factoring in velocity, days of rest, pitch counts, and pace between pitches. Historically, who had the highest fatigue unit workloads for the Toronto Blue Jays?</p>
<h2>Single Season Workloads</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Rank</th>
<th>Fatigue Units</th>
<th>Season</th>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Inning Apperances</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>4 + Days Rest</th>
<th>1 &#8211; 3 Days Rest</th>
<th>0 Days Rest</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>28.75</td>
<td>2008</td>
<td>A.J. Burnett</td>
<td>230</td>
<td>3540</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>27.01</td>
<td>2008</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>250</td>
<td>3413</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>25.7</td>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>3345</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>25.25</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>1255</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>25.09</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>3386</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>24.42</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>224</td>
<td>3277</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>23.85</td>
<td>2010</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>3209</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>23.31</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>207</td>
<td>3106</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>22.63</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>1198</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>22.47</td>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Henderson Alvarez</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>2857</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>22.45</td>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>3060</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Brandon Morrow</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>3108</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>22.39</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>3210</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Esmil Rogers</td>
<td>151</td>
<td>2258</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>22.01</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Brandon League</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>1109</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>21.89</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Liam Hendriks</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>1101</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>21.53</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Jesse Carlson</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>1133</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>21.53</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>3299</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>21.51</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>1084</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>21.47</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>185</td>
<td>2979</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>21.42</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>231</td>
<td>3503</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>21.14</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>227</td>
<td>3387</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>21.13</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>3051</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>21.01</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>1037</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>20.96</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>229</td>
<td>3508</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26</td>
<td>20.79</td>
<td>2010</td>
<td>Kevin Gregg</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>1079</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27</td>
<td>20.6</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>3082</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>20.56</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>211</td>
<td>3200</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>20.25</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>1211</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>20.14</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Brian Tallet</td>
<td>171</td>
<td>2661</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It should surprise no one to see Roy Halladay&#8217;s name appear twice in the top 5 on this list &#8211; even though he was only with the Jays for two years during this time period. He was <em>the</em> go-to guy. What is slightly surprising is not seeing him in the #1 Spot.</p>
<h3>#1 &#8211; 2008 &#8211; AJ Burnett, #2 &#8211; 2008 &#8211; Roy Halladay</h3>
<p>AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay had absolutely amazing 2008&#8217;s, with both pitchers in hot pursuit of 20 wins all season long. How didn&#8217;t this team do better?! Oh right&#8230;one 20 home run hitter. Joe Inglett playing in over 100 games&#8230; I&#8217;ll just leave it there. AJ appeared in 230 innings, completing 221.1 innings, and throwing a whopping 3540 pitches in 35 games (34 starts). While Doc appeared in one fewer game, he appeared in 20 more innings than Burnett that season. The difference in workload stems mostly from how AJ got hitters out &#8211; striking out 231 hitters, and walking 81 batters. Halladay only struck out 206 while walking 39. Take a look at those numbers again; those are insane.</p>
<h3>#3 &#8211; 2011 &#8211; Ricky Romero</h3>
<p>*** Cut to Mike clutching his Ricky Romero jersey in his basement while a single tear rolls down his cheek ***</p>
<p>Oh, what might have been for Ricky Romero. His knees betrayed him and his career plummeted shortly after. But in 2011, he was a workhorse &#8211; and the Jays rotation looked primed for the future. Romero appeared in 233 innings, completing a total of 225 that season, while throwing 3345 pitches.</p>
<h3>#4 &#8211; 2016 &#8211; Roberto Osuna</h3>
<p>This is where things start to get interesting on the workload list. Osuna didn&#8217;t appear in as many innings as the guys up above, but it was the fact he appeared on back to back days 25 times that really drove his workload up. 25 times&#8230;the next closest for the Blue Jays in this time period is 19. The trips to the post season contributed to this number, undoubtedly, but Osuna&#8217;s isolation in a bullpen that struggled to get hitters out has left him on an island in Blue Jay land. The Jays do need to get a few more reliable arms to reduce Roberto&#8217;s huge workloads, year after year.</p>
<h3>#8 &#8211; 2016 &#8211; Aaron Sanchez</h3>
<p>This was the year where Sanchez was the pinnacle of controversy in the Toronto market &#8211; should he move to the bullpen? Should he be shut down for the season? In the end, neither of these actions happened and Sanchez pitched his way to an ERA title and the playoffs. Now, 2017 was a different story&#8230; Sanchez missed the vast majority of the year with various finger and blister issues. Keep in mind, high FUs are tied to an increase in Tommy John Surgery in subsequent seasons &#8211; not blisters. Hopefully 2017 was a blip on the radar of a successful career.</p>
<h2>Pitch Tracking Era Workload Leaders</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Rank</th>
<th>FUs</th>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Starts</th>
<th>Inning Appearances</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>4 + Days Rest</th>
<th>1 &#8211; 3 Days Rest</th>
<th>0 Days Rest</th>
<th>Seasons</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>115.95</td>
<td>Brett Cecil</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>770</td>
<td>10521</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>184</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>94.61</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>834</td>
<td>12755</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>88.34</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>423</td>
<td>4570</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>217</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>80.97</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>868</td>
<td>13126</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>78.6</td>
<td>Casey Janssen</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>5253</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>72.52</td>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>682</td>
<td>10718</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>68.91</td>
<td>Jason Frasor</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>327</td>
<td>4457</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>66.37</td>
<td>Brandon Morrow</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>563</td>
<td>9114</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>64.6</td>
<td>Shawn Camp</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>328</td>
<td>3788</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>155</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>64.38</td>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>617</td>
<td>9156</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>62.01</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>628</td>
<td>9209</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>61.23</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>256</td>
<td>3412</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>58.16</td>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>607</td>
<td>9571</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>55.45</td>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>397</td>
<td>5735</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>52.09</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>489</td>
<td>6799</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>49.01</td>
<td>Scott Downs</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>2650</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>49.01</td>
<td>Brian Tallet</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>334</td>
<td>4911</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>48.48</td>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>430</td>
<td>6747</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>45.74</td>
<td>Jesse Carlson</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>204</td>
<td>2151</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>42.96</td>
<td>Steve Delabar</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>181</td>
<td>2592</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>40.3</td>
<td>Dustin McGowan</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>272</td>
<td>3639</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>37.36</td>
<td>Jesse Litsch</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>326</td>
<td>4626</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>35.62</td>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>226</td>
<td>3144</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>33.79</td>
<td>Shaun Marcum</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>357</td>
<td>5247</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>31.92</td>
<td>Todd Redmond</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>2772</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26</td>
<td>31.8</td>
<td>Brandon League</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>1588</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27</td>
<td>31.3</td>
<td>Ryan Tepera</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>167</td>
<td>2067</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>29.97</td>
<td>Henderson Alvarez</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>260</td>
<td>3833</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>29.87</td>
<td>Carlos Villanueva</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>246</td>
<td>3741</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>29.24</td>
<td>Luis Perez</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>146</td>
<td>1842</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3> #1 &#8211; Brett Cecil</h3>
<p>The results often fluctuated between great and&#8230; not so great, but it&#8217;s tough to deny that Brett Cecil was a big part of the Blue Jays pitching staff during his eight years here. Cecil had 74 starts during this time with the Blue Jays and appeared in 770 innings. When he left the rotation for good, he seemed to find more success &#8211; including his long scoreless streak during the magical 2015 run.</p>
<h3>#3 &#8211; Aaron Loup</h3>
<p>Much like Squints, Loup has had his ups and down with the Blue Jays &#8211; but he has always been just on the cusp of being an excellent reliever. During his six seasons with the Blue Jays, no other pitcher has appeared on back to back days more than Loup &#8211; averaging just over 10 per year.</p>
<h3>#5 &#8211; Casey Janssen</h3>
<p>Janssen was the only consistently effective reliever in the Toronto &#8216;pen before Roberto Osuna came along and made that role cool. Janssen managed to close 90 games for the Jays &#8211; even while missing the entire 2008 season with a torn labrum. Thats not an injury that is easy for a pitcher to return from &#8211; so the fact he was able to put up these high workloads, be effective, and consistently answer the manager&#8217;s call is a true testament to Janssen&#8217;s toughness.</p>
<h3>#10 &#8211; Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p>A Blue Jays list just isn&#8217;t complete unless you talk about the Stro Show. Marcus is 10th in workload in the era starting in 2008 &#8211; also known as &#8220;when Stroman was a high school student who didn&#8217;t even have a clothing brand.&#8221; These numbers are slightly misleading too &#8211; sure, he appeared in 4 seasons, but one was the injury shortened ACL year. In those 4 seasons, Stro has played an important role in the Jays post season runs and done this without an injury that would raise any concerns about his durability (the ACL is a fluke). Stroman is a workhorse now and for the Blue Jays future.</p>
<p>Height doesn&#8217;t measure heart, but Fatigue Units do measure Workload!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Toronto Blue Jays Stuff Report &#8211; Volume 2, Issue 6</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2017 14:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics. Starting Pitchers The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13071" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starters-Table-1024x184.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700" height="126" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13079" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png" alt="Starter Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning blow outs (looking at you, Frankie) have had their ups and downs this season. Marco Estrada has an interesting relationship with the Stuff Metric &#8211; when he throws his Curveball, things look a lot better (due to an increased separation between pitches). His Stuff is never going to be elite &#8211; not when his fastball sits nearly a full standard deviation below league average, but when he doesn&#8217;t throw the curve at all, his Stuff falls completely off a cliff. His season started out with a lot of variability, then hit a declining phase &#8211; but after the All Star break &#8211; the Stuff has looked a lot more consistent.</p>
<p>Stroman has had some very consistent Stuff &#8211; a coefficient of variation on the season of 60%. While this is high with respect to his peers, he has the least amount of variability on the Blue Jays staff (amongst starters who have appeared in at least 15 weeks). From an injury perspective, lower variability in Stuff on a weekly basis is linked to reduced injury chances which obviously is a point in Stroman&#8217;s favour. On the flip side, Happ and Estrada have some of the most variability in their Stuff in the entire MLB.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13069" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Relievers-Table-1024x154.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="700" height="105" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13072" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff-1024x743.png" alt="Reliever Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>Well now, this doesn&#8217;t look good at all. Last year, the Blue Jays had elite Stuff relievers in both Joe Biagini and Roberto Osuna. This year, Osuna has had an up and down year with his Stuff and has hovered right below league average Stuff (0.4). The Twitterverse started getting huffy with me this week when <a href="https://twitter.com/DrMikeSonne/status/899392674754592768" target="_blank">I tweeted that Roberto Osuna should be shut down for the year</a> to prevent injury and ensure he will be a huge part of the team for seasons to come. Like I had mentioned, Osuna&#8217;s Stuff is way down &#8211; he has lost a significant amount off of his fastball and he seems to just refuse to throw the fourseamer anymore.</p>
<p>Not only has his fastball dropped off, but Osunas has lost Stuff in all other areas too. There&#8217;s less separation between his pitches and less range of velocity between the pitch arsenal.</p>
<table style="height: 230px" width="441">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Roberto Osuna</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2015</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2016</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2017</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Stuff</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.82</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.84</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Fastball Velo (mph)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.51</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.75</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">94.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Change in Velo (%)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">13.79%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">9.91%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Break Distance (&#8220;)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">10.31</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">11.60</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I wrote an article that examined workloads in pitchers that tried to come up with a metric that compared relievers to starters in the same light. Looking closely at these values (in the PitchFX era), there has only been one pitcher that had a higher workload before they turned 23  &#8211; Madison Bumgarner.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png"><img class=" wp-image-13076 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png" alt="before 23" width="600" height="352" /></a></p>
<p>In addition, no pitcher had appeared in more games than Osuna. These are uncharted waters &#8211; and if the Jays are seeing these same signs, a tough decision is coming; is it worth risking the health of one of baseball&#8217;s best young closers for an outside shot at the second wildcard, in exchange for losing him for parts of the next two?</p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Mid Season Workloads &#8211; Fatigue Units for the Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/15/mid-season-workloads-fatigue-units-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/15/mid-season-workloads-fatigue-units-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Jul 2017 10:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12354</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Half way through this season, there are many reasons to say FU. Some of them come from the Jays starters giving up another crooked number in the first inning. Some of them come from early season reliever giving up home runs to the stupid Orioles. Others come from the fact that our resident list making [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Half way through this season, there are many reasons to say FU. Some of them come from the Jays starters giving up another crooked number in the first inning. Some of them come from early season reliever giving up home runs to the stupid Orioles. Others come from the fact that our resident list making expert Nick Dika went for pizza and forgot to invite me to come along. However, I would like to talk a bit about a different FU &#8211; Fatigue Units, and how Blue Jay Pitcher workloads look at the midway point of the season.</p>
<p>Earlier this season, I wrote that I<a title="There’s No Need to Worry About Joe Biagini’s Workload" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/" target="_blank"> wasn&#8217;t concerned about Joe Biagini&#8217;s workload</a>, despite him getting close to his career high in Major League Innings. Joe thanked me for this by giving up seven in the first that day, and Twitter well actually&#8217;d me to death. Turns out, Joe maybe just was having a rough month &#8211; and if you look at <a title="The STUFF report – Vol. 2, Issue 5 – All Star Break Edition" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/" target="_blank">the Stuff report</a>, there&#8217;s reason to think Joe will be back to his old ways in no time. The point of evaluating fatigue units is to examine how hard a pitcher is working with a bit more insight into the physiological processes occurring in the body as a result of high velocity pitches, back to back appearances, and high pitch count innings &#8211; not just total innings pitched or round numbers (like a 100 pitch count). If you&#8217;d like to get a bit more information into what Fatigue Units are &#8211; <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/an-introduction-to-fatigue-units-a-new-method-for-evaluating-workloads/" target="_blank">take a look here</a>.</p>
<p>Ok, now that you&#8217;ve done your homework, let&#8217;s move forward.</p>
<h2>Top 10 Pitchers by Workload</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Top-1-Fatigue-Units.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12355" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Top-1-Fatigue-Units-1024x620.png" alt="Top 1 Fatigue Units" width="650" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Can you imagine a world where Ryan Tepera, Dominic Leone, and Danny Barnes did not exist? You think things are bad now? Launch the Blue Jays playoff chances in a rocket, have it go to Mars, and then have them get out and explode like Arnold&#8217;s nemesis did in Total Recall.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/165643.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12356" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/165643.gif" alt="165643" width="320" height="172" /></a></p>
<p>Things would be SO much worse without these three workhorses.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman shows up as the first starter in the top 10. This is because of his exceptional pitch efficiency; Stroman averages a mere 15.3 pitches per inning &#8211; only 15% of all Major League Pitchers can say they average fewer than him (minimum 10 IP). He sits 16th in total innings pitched, but 29th in total pitches thrown. This my friends, is how you work deep into ball games.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna is likely one of the pitchers on this list that will finish in the top three by season&#8217;s end. Roberto has missed some time dealing with a neck issue out of spring training, and more recently his anxiety issues. With how he is pitching now, expect to see a lot more back to back to back appearances, and way more work for Osuna in the second half.</p>
<h2>Ranking the Staff</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Name</th>
<th>Fatigue Units</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>Innings Pitched</th>
<th>Pitches / Inning</th>
<th>&gt; 4 Days Rest</th>
<th>2-4 Days Rest</th>
<th>1 Day Rest</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Tepera</td>
<td>10.49</td>
<td>753</td>
<td>45.1</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dominic Leone</td>
<td>10.49</td>
<td>625</td>
<td>39.2</td>
<td>5.6</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>9.38</td>
<td>1185</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Danny Barnes</td>
<td>9.38</td>
<td>636</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>1723</td>
<td>112.1</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>8.62</td>
<td>1788</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>15.9</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>7.68</td>
<td>487</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>7.64</td>
<td>543</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Joe Smith</td>
<td>7.00</td>
<td>474</td>
<td>31.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Francisco Liriano</td>
<td>6.17</td>
<td>1214</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>5.83</td>
<td>1034</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jason Grilli</td>
<td>4.94</td>
<td>458</td>
<td>22.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeff Beliveau</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>14.1</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mike Bolsinger</td>
<td>3.49</td>
<td>560</td>
<td>31.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>2.14</td>
<td>433</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Casey Lawrence</td>
<td>1.94</td>
<td>504</td>
<td>30.2</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J.P. Howell</td>
<td>1.64</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Leonel Campos</td>
<td>1.22</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mat Latos</td>
<td>1.20</td>
<td>262</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lucas Harrell</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Glenn Sparkman</td>
<td>0.38</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cesar Valdez</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>13.2</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris Smith</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Matt Dermody</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mid-season-pitcher-workloads/#more-99252"><br />
I recently wrote some unflattering words about the Jays rotation over at RotoGraphs</a> &#8211; they rank 27th in the league in terms of Fatigue Units for their Starters. That&#8217;s because this rotation spends a lot of time bringing the bullpen to life in the fourth inning &#8211; and when you&#8217;re getting shelled that early, the bullpen is going to shoulder a lot of the workload. On the flip side, the Jays rank sixth in workload for their bullpen. They are really being put through the ringer. One thing that is a feather in Gibby&#8217;s cap however, is that while the Jays relievers are high in total workload, they have done so by having pitchers throw on back to back days 58 times, or, ninth most in the entire league. Gibby has had to go to his bullpen a lot, but he&#8217;s done a great job in reducing the strain on his pitchers.</p>
<p>So &#8211; the Starters are fresh for the second half &#8211; the key cogs in the bullpen have a lot left in the tank. Let&#8217;s go win some games and have another fun October!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>There&#8217;s No Need to Worry About Joe Biagini&#8217;s Workload</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jun 2017 10:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Joe Biagini has moved from his role as bullpen stalwart to the Jays rotation and has filled Aaron Sanchez’s starting spot admirably. While the wins seem to be eluding him, Biagini is racking up the strikeouts, keeping the runs to a minimum, and looking every bit like a Major League starting pitcher. Of course, a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe Biagini has moved from his role as bullpen stalwart to the Jays rotation and has filled Aaron Sanchez’s starting spot admirably. While the wins seem to be eluding him, Biagini is racking up the strikeouts, keeping the runs to a minimum, and looking every bit like a Major League starting pitcher.</p>
<p>Of course, a transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation does tend to lead to a few concerns – and if you check around the Twitterverse, the big one with Joe is his workload. His career high in innings pitched at the Major League level is 67.2 – set last season. In 2017, he’s already at 56.0 innings. Remember though – Biagini rose through the Giants system as a starting pitcher – and his career high in innings as a professional is from the 2015 season where he threw 130.1 innings to the tune of a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. (Sorry, these stats are irrelevant. I’m just looking at the baseball reference page and I can’t believe the Giants didn’t have a spot on their roster for Joe. Thanks, guys.)</p>
<p>So back to the topic at hand – Biagini is going to blow away his career inning total this season if he stays in the rotation. Tom Verducci is probably just cackling away, eagerly awaiting the moment when poor Joe’s arm flies off because he passes the dreaded 30% innings increase. I am here to tell you; do not worry about Joe Biagini’s workload. Everything is going to be fine.</p>
<p>Innings pitched alone is an ineffective method of determining if a pitcher is at a high risk of getting injured. Overall pitch counts don’t really do the job either. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/an-introduction-to-fatigue-units-a-new-method-for-evaluating-workloads/">Taking you back a bit to some of my previous work, I came up with a metric called “Fatigue Units”. </a>This incorporates the work from other researchers to produce a metric that includes known risk factors for injury &#8211; such as days rest between appearances, fastball velocity, pitches per inning, and the total innings pitched in a season. Using this analysis method, fatigue units were a more effective approach identifying workloads that lead to UCL reconstructions in subsequent seasons than were innings pitched. So, what do Joe Biagini’s 2017 and 2016 workloads look like?</p>
<div id="attachment_11646" style="width: 743px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/biagini-workload.png"><img class="wp-image-11646" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/biagini-workload-1024x784.png" alt="biagini workload" width="733" height="561" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Figure 1. Various Workload Metrics for Joe Biagini during the 2016, and 2017 seasons. Inning Appearances, Pitches, and Fatigue Units (starting from top left, and going clockwise.</p></div>
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<p>The first two graphs probably concern you &#8211; and that&#8217;s fine. He is throwing a lot more innings &#8211; and that is a risk factor &#8211; but what I&#8217;m trying to get at is that these innings are much less stressful on Joe. Looking at the days between his appearances, Biagini had an average of 2.83 days between appearances in 2016 (if you&#8217;re doing this math at home : if there is ever a period of greater than 10 days between appearances, I just removed it from the calculation). During the 2017 season &#8211; that&#8217;s up to 3.35 days between appearances, and in the past two months &#8211; he&#8217;s closer to six days between appearances (thanks to the new role).</p>
<p>Joe has also become more efficient in 2017 &#8211; moving from an average of 16.6 pitches per inning in 2016 to 14.6 pitches per inning in 2017. A while ago, <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/fatigue-inferences-on-a-100-pitch-limit/">I wrote about how throwing more pitches per inning is likely the cause of more fatigue</a>, and not total pitches per game &#8211; so, I was really happy to read this.</p>
<div id="attachment_11647" style="width: 723px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/fatigue-per-inning.png"><img class="size-large wp-image-11647" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/fatigue-per-inning-1024x510.png" alt="Fatigue per inning, based on pitches per inning. Each line represents a 100 pitch start, divided between 4 - 9 inning appearance lengths." width="713" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Figure 2. Fatigue per inning, based on pitches per inning. Each line represents a 100 pitch start, divided between 4 &#8211; 9 inning appearance lengths.</p></div>
<p>The moral of this story is: do not just think of an innings increase as a kiss of death for a pitcher &#8211; not all innings are created equal. Giving Joe Biagini more time between his outings will help him out immensely when it comes to recovering &#8211; and remember: he has a starter&#8217;s pedigree. Instead of worrying about Biagini&#8217;s innings increase, go back to thanking the baseball gods that the Giants didn&#8217;t have room for him on their 40 man.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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