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	<title>Toronto &#187; Drew Hutchison</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire SP Francisco Liriano from Pittsburgh Pirates</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/01/blue-jays-acquire-francisco-liriano/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2016 21:17:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fransisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Harold Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh Pirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reese McGuire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5089</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a couple of seemingly innocuous, if useful depth moves, the Blue Jays have acquired a legitimate front of the rotation type of arm. As first reported by Robert Murray, the Blue Jays have picked up Francisco Liriano and two prospects (via Davidi) from the Pittsburgh Pirates: Source: Blue Jays get Liriano from Pirates &#8212; Robert [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a couple of seemingly innocuous, if useful depth moves, the Blue Jays have acquired a legitimate front of the rotation type of arm. As first reported by Robert Murray, the Blue Jays have picked up Francisco Liriano and two prospects (via Davidi) from the Pittsburgh Pirates:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Blue Jays get Liriano from Pirates</p>
<p>&mdash; Robert Murray (@RobertMurrayFRS) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayFRS/status/760215885340561408">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> also getting two prospects from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/760217259167981568">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Also: Harold Ramirez AA OF to Toronto with Liriano</p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/760220158459871232">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>With the prospect of moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen, the Blue Jays top of the rotation was threatening to take a major hit, as Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. That void has been filled. Liriano isn&#8217;t having a great season, with an ERA of 5.46 in 21 starts, but he is still striking out hitters at a nice rate of 9.1 K/9, and is a groundball machine with at a rate of 51.9%. He is also coming off three straight seasons of ERAs at 3.38 or below. The issue currently is Liriano&#8217;s walk rate, which sits at a career high 5.46 per nine innings. However, that seems like something of an aberration. Reuniting him with Martin also seems like a very promising move.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Liriano’s ERA w/ Russell Martin Catching: 2.92</p>
<p>Liriano’s ERA w/ All Other Catchers: 4.28</p>
<p>Just sayin&#39;</p>
<p>&mdash; Matt Gwin (@Matt_Gwin) <a href="https://twitter.com/Matt_Gwin/status/760220692260323328">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>This seems to continue a theme for the Jays recently, of acquiring pitchers whose walk rates have spiked, but have not come with a dip in stuff. Take a look at Liriano&#8217;s velocity and movement charts below. The velo is exactly the same, and the movement is extremely similar. There&#8217;s a lot to hope for here.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5090" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5093" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (8)" width="952" height="323" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Liriano is also signed through 2017 for another $13M, which gives the Jays a nice replacement for pending free agent R.A. Dickey. In fact, this now means the 2017 rotation is full (barring injury) with Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano, and Sanchez. That&#8217;s very helpful for a team facing so many free agent decisions.</p>
<p>Harold Ramirez was the #9 prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) in the Pirates system prior to the deal. He is a 21 year old outfielder who is currently playing very well in Double-A Altoona, hitting .305/.354/.401, despite being 3.4 years younger than the average age for his level. He has a nice feel for contact, with a career .304/.362/.409 line despite always being young. He apparently has a very weak arm though, so despite solid speed and defensive instincts, may be forced to LF. He still seems like a nice get for Toronto.</p>
<p>Of course, with Liriano and prospects coming to Toronto, there must have been something substantial going the other direction. As first reported by our own Gideon Turk, Drew Hutchison is heading off to the Steel City.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Drew Hutchison going to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> in Liriano trade.</p>
<p>&mdash; (((Gideon Turk))) (@GideonTurk) <a href="https://twitter.com/GideonTurk/status/760218364119814144">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Hutchison entered 2015 with so much hype following a successful finish to the 2014 season. However, he was terrible in 2015, pitching to a 5.57 ERA, and eventually losing his rotation spot when the Blue Jays acquired David Price. His two starts this season weren&#8217;t a lot better, as he gave up seven runs in 12 2/3 innings of work. He has pitched well at AAA Buffalo, however, working to a 3.26 ERA with 110 strikeouts and only 35 walks in 112 innings. There is still clearly some upside there, as he he won&#8217;t be a free agent until after the 2018 or 2019 season (depending on how much service time he gets until the end of the season).</p>
<p>All in all, this is a good move for the Blue Jays. They lose a solid but expendable starting pitcher, and add one with top of the rotation upside. They also fill a hole for next year&#8217;s rotation, allowing them to focus money on fixing up the offense. Yes, this probably means Sanchez is officially ticketed for the bullpen, but given that was likely to happen regardless, this is a great way for Toronto to cover itself.</p>
<p>It has been a very solid trade deadline for the Jays, who needed not large moves (though Liriano qualifies), but minor tweaks. For the first time in a long time, the Blue Jays are also showing some financial flex, adding Upton, Feldman, and now Liriano while taking on additional salary. This is very encouraging, especially with the increased attendance.</p>
<p>Well done, Messrs. Shapiro and Atkins.</p>
<p><strong>Update</strong></p>
<p>The clubs have announced the deal, and joining Ramirez as the second prospect in the deal will be catcher Reese McGuire, the 14th overall selection in the 2013 MLB Draft, and a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. McGuire is known specifically for his defense, as his bat has struggled throughout he tenure in the minors. In 77 games for AA Altoona this season, he has hit just .259/.337/.346. Those numbers are clearly not where you want them to be, but thankfully the path to the majors for great defensive catchers is a bit easier, even if they can&#8217;t hit. From <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28319" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s top 101 prospect list</a>, is the following:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;McGuire lacks the offensive upside of the other catching prospects on the 101, but he’s by far the best defender of the group. He struggled with the bat in the Florida State League last year, but he offers a plus defensive projection behind the plate with a plus arm and advanced receiving skills. He’s a good athlete for a catcher as well, and may grow into more game power over time. His stock is down until he starts to hit a bit more, but the glove alone gives him a good shot at a major-league career, even if it’s the one-day-a-week kind.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>You have to like this deal for the Blue Jays. It comes out to Drew Hutchison for Liriano, McGuire, and Ramirez, a deal made possible by the Blue Jays taking on additional salary. I&#8217;ll let Baseball America&#8217;s J.J. Cooper sum it up:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Needless to say, I LOVE this deal for the Blue Jays. If they released Liriano tonight, I&#39;d love it for them.</p>
<p>&mdash; JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) <a href="https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/760237148016488449">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s play some meaningful baseball, shall we?</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Storylines to Watch in the Second Half</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/15/second-half-blue-jays-storylines-to-watch/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/15/second-half-blue-jays-storylines-to-watch/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Jul 2016 11:26:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been a crazy few months for the Blue Jays. The team was supposed to possess an otherworldly offense, but instead, for a long time, the hitters were nowhere to be found, and the Blue Jays survived on a&#160;starting rotation that finished the first half of the season with the best earned run average among [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been a crazy few months for the Blue Jays. The team was supposed to possess an otherworldly offense, but instead, for a long time, the hitters were nowhere to be found, and the Blue Jays survived on a&nbsp;starting rotation that finished the first half of the season with the best earned run average among American League staffs. Off the field, the contract&nbsp;hysteria that surrounded Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion during Spring Training completely vanished as soon as real baseball started, and virtually any current mention of their expiring contracts is laughed off by everybody&nbsp;wanting to focus at the task at hand: winning the AL East.</p>
<p>A lot has happened recently.&nbsp;The team played a nineteen inning game, had five representatives in the all-star game, and finished the first half of the season with their best record since 1993 thanks to a seven game winning streak. Even though there have been <a href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/7/12/fowles-the-narrative-of-the-first-half" target="_blank">plenty of storylines</a>&nbsp;that stick out among the Blue Jays first 91 games, by nature of how much more important the next 71 are, there are sure to be plenty more. Here are a few storylines that should dominate the media coverage until October 1st.</p>
<h3>Josh Donaldson Chases Another MVP Award</h3>
<p>Since 1994, only one player in the American League has won back-to-back Most Valuable Player awards, Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. For Josh Donaldson to do it would be an incredible show of talent. What’s more incredible is that by most measures, Donaldson is performing better in 2016 than he did a season ago. He’s walking about 1.5 times more often than he was in 2015, and if that wasn&#8217;t enough to further his offensive prowess, he’s also striking out 1.9 percentage points less often. Combine that with an increase in his power numbers (.295 ISO in 2016 compared to .271 in 2015), and you’ve got a player with a TAv of .345, up .021 points from last season. If he maintains this level of production, it’s hard to see Mike Trout beating him out for the award this season, given that the Blue Jays are headed for playoff competition and the Angels are scheduled to pick nice and early in the draft next year.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman Tries to Keep the Ball Down</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays de facto ace coming into 2016 has been an enigma over the first half of the season, and his performance down the stretch will likely impact if/how the Blue Jays make the playoffs. If he can pitch like he did for the last two starts before the all-star break, the Blue Jays’ chances of climbing up the standings into the division lead will greatly increase. In order to do that, he’ll need to keep his sinker down, something he just couldn&#8217;t do for a prolonged period of time in the first half of the season. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how frequently he uses his slider down the stretch, as he went to it more often in his last three starts than he has in the past.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/Screen-Shot-2016-07-15-at-1.02.47-AM.png"><img class="wp-image-4590 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/Screen-Shot-2016-07-15-at-1.02.47-AM-1024x506.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 1.02.47 AM" width="500" height="247"></a></p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez and the Great Bullpen Debate</h3>
<p>It’s pretty amazing that, just a few short months ago, Aaron Sanchez was fighting with Gavin Floyd for a spot in the Blue Jays rotation, and this week he was pitching in the All-Star Game. However, Sanchez’s success throughout the season’s first half could hurt him down the stretch. He&#8217;s&nbsp;been so good that he&#8217;s racked up 118 1/3 innings already. He’s rapidly approaching his career high, and the Blue Jays talked&nbsp;often about moving him&nbsp;to the bullpen at some point this season.</p>
<p>Luckily their tone has somewhat changed of late, making it seem like the move may not happen at all. The science on innings limits is extremely limited, and it would seem like the best move for the club in both the near and long term would be to evaluate Sanchez biomechanically. Thus meaning that they should only remove him from the rotation if he gets to a specific point in data markers that would point to fatigue. That decision needs to come from somebody smarter than you and me, but things like spin rate, velocity, and movement on pitches might be tell tale signs that Sanchez is starting to wear down. Fortunately, Sanchez has been great in 2016, which means he has avoided a lot of high-stress pitches, meaning he still may have dozens of innings left in the tank.</p>
<h3>Trade Deadline Activity</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will make a move over the next two weeks. No contender with people in charge of it as intelligent as the people in charge of the Blue Jays stands pat. However, how they opt to improve the club sill remains to be seen. A lot of that will be dependant on Sanchez, as if he is staying in the rotation, the bullpen becomes the most pressing need, whereas if he is slated to move to the ‘pen, another starter is needed.</p>
<p>A third, and more adventurous option, would be to improve the offense by acquiring somebody like Jay Bruce, who the club not only tried to acquire during Spring Training, but who has been tied to the club in recent weeks as well. An acquisition like that would allow the club to move Jose Bautista to first base when he returns from injury, and would make an already scary Blue Jays lineup even more potent. Players of Bruce’s ilk, corner outfielders who can slide Bautista over to first base and are still controllable beyond this season, are probably the route the team would go if they decided to upgrade on offense.</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista Returning From Injury</h3>
<p>Before his injury, Bautista was putting up his worst numbers since he became the real Jose Bautista at the end of the 2009 season. Of course, as &#8220;bad&#8221; as he was, he was still batting .230/.360/.455 in 286 plate appearances. Despite the Blue Jays’ offensive resurgence, it is extremely unlikely that all the big mashers remain hot for the rest of the season, and getting a vintage Bautista back to add to this lineup could take a lot of pressure off of Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, and Josh Donaldson.</p>
<p>Bautista also has a lot riding on the last two months of this season, because, as it stands now, his value has taken a significant hit since he requested a five-year deal worth more than $150 million in the spring. A couple of months of declining performance and missing time due to injury are basically the two worst things that can happen to a pending free agent in his mid 30’s. The ship may have sailed on a five year deal, but a solid end to the season could land Bautista a generous multi-year deal.</p>
<h3>Getting Help From the Minor Leagues</h3>
<p>The upper levels of the Blue Jays minor league system are unusually barren due to the exile of prospects that occurred at this time last year. However, that doesn&#8217;t mean there aren&#8217;t some players that could have an impact on the Blue Jays in the second half of the season. Chris Colabello is eligible to return from his suspension on July 23rd, and all signs point to him staying in Buffalo at that point. He’s sure to be back with the club in September at the latest, but he is an option that can help the club off the bench if needed before that time. Dalton Pompey has had an injury riddled season for the Bisons, but could also come up and help the club in a pinch if needed. Another potential option, which may be a bit out there, is Rowdy Tellez, the slugging first baseman who is destroying Double-A pitching at the moment. A move to Triple-A is likely in Rowdy’s near future. If that goes well, and the Blue Jays want another big bat off the bench in September, Rowdy could get the call.</p>
<p>On the pitching side of things, Drew Hutchison has been up and down with the big league club. Further down the system is Connor Greene, considered by many to be the Blue Jays’ best prospect, sitting in Double-A New Hampshire right now. Like Tellez, it’s unlikely he gets the call because he has yet to play in Triple-A , but if the need arises, he would seem to be a strong option for a prolonged starting spot in the rotation.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:&nbsp;Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Tigers 4; The Real Troy Tulowitzki is Back</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/07/recap-blue-jays-5-tigers-4-the-real-troy-tulowitzki-is-back/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jul 2016 03:11:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Verlander]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4468</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Two years ago, if I&#8217;d told you that Drew Hutchison pitched just as well as Justin Verlander, you&#8217;d have been ecstatic. Well, that happened today, but there was no ecstaticism to be found. Verlander isn&#8217;t much like his 2011 Cy Young and MVP award winning self these days; today&#8217;s game epitomized that. He struck out five [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two years ago, if I&#8217;d told you that Drew Hutchison pitched just as well as Justin Verlander, you&#8217;d have been ecstatic. Well, that happened today, but there was no ecstaticism to be found. Verlander isn&#8217;t much like his 2011 Cy Young and MVP award winning self these days; today&#8217;s game epitomized that. He struck out five batters, but walked just four. He also gave up no home runs, but the Jays eke&#8217;d out six hits against him over 5 2/3 innings. Miraculously, that was enough to allow Justin Verlander to leave the game with the Tigers ahead and a shot at a win. How? As iterated earlier, Hutch had a similarly unfortunate performance.</p>
<p>In the strikeout and walk department, Drew Hutchison far outclassed his opponent: he struck out seven and walked just one over six innings. However, as he often does, Hutchison gave up a couple of fly balls that went a little too far. Since 2012, among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched, Drew Hutchison&#8217;s 1.26 HR/9 is the 15th worst home run rate in the league. Some would argue that, despite the homers, today&#8217;s start marked a staunch improvement for the righty. It validates the &#8216;potential&#8217; that he still holds. Unfortunately, strikeouts have never been Drew&#8217;s issues; instead it is how hittable he is, and how many flyballs he gives up. There was no improvement in either of those two categories today.</p>
<p>Despite less than wonderful pitching for both teams, there was less scoring than you might expect. The Blue Jays tagged Verlander for two runs in the first. Then, with homers in the second and fourth, the Tigers propelled their way to a lead. That lead held until the eight, when the Jays nickelled and dimed their way to two runs. It started with a Zeke single, a Donaldson single, and a Martin walk mixed in a couple outs. That left the based loaded for the recently hot Troy Tulowitzki, who didn&#8217;t miss his shot at glory. Blue Jays win.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play was Tulowitzki&#8217;s aforementioned single to score two and take the lead. It earned the Jays a remarkable 51% edge in win probability added. While very high, that figure makes sense, as it likely would have been the Jays&#8217; last shot at a win. At that point there were two outs, and the bases loaded. Had Troy Tulowitzki not been able to score at least one run, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, and Darwin Barney would have finished out the game. That trio doesn&#8217;t exactly inspire much confidence.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s bottom play also came in the 8th inning, just two batters before Troy Tulowitzki. Michael Saunders had come to the plate with Ezequiel Carrera on third, Josh Donaldson on first, and just one out. Had he gotten the ball out of the infield, the game would have been tied. Instead, he grounded out to first, with Miguel Cabrera going to home to get Ezequiel out on a fielder&#8217;s choice; a 20.6% reduction in win expectancy.</p>
<h3>The Real Troy Tulowitzki is in the Building</h3>
<p>Over his last six games, including today, Troy Tulowitzki has three home runs, nine hits, and a whole lot of confidence. In a post titled, &#8220;<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-blue-jays-are-smashing-people-again/" target="_blank">The Blue Jays are Smashing People Again</a>,&#8221; Jeff Sullivan detailed how Tulo&#8217;s contact rate has returned to form, and it may be the thing to turn his season around. Jeff theorized that Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s early season experiment with the leg kick may have caused some contact issues. However, he&#8217;s now back to a toe tap, and it certainly seems to be working.</p>
<h3>Good Morning Baltimore</h3>
<p>On May 18th, the Blue Jays were seven games back of first in the AL East. Today, they are now just one game back of Baltimore. That&#8217;s a remarkable recovery. It has come as a result of a nice little hot streak. They&#8217;ve won 6 of their last 6; 8 of their last 10; and 14 of their last 22. No matter how you frame it, the Jays are on a roll.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow Aaron Sanchez will take on Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers. It&#8217;s the ultimate strikeout versus no strikeout matchup, and it&#8217;ll begin at 7:07 PM EST. The Jays have come close to sweeping all four of their four game series this season, but haven&#8217;t yet done it. With Verlander out of the way and Jordan Zimmermann on the DL, they&#8217;ll have the opportunity against the Tigers.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Don&#8217;t Count Out Marcus Stroman</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/03/this-week-in-blue-jays-dont-count-out-marcus-stroman/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 03 Jul 2016 13:20:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[struggles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It is unusual that one game during the course of a week can eclipse all others so completely, given that each game is equally weighted over the course of the season. But, there&#8217;s nothing usual about a nineteen inning game. Friday&#8217;s game is tied for the longest game in Blue Jays’ franchise history in innings [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is unusual that one game during the course of a week can eclipse all others so completely, given that each game is equally weighted over the course of the season. But, there&#8217;s nothing usual about a nineteen inning game. Friday&#8217;s game is tied for the longest game in Blue Jays’ franchise history in innings and second longest in duration. There are so many game stories that have been written about that epic 2-1 loss at the hands of the Cleveland Indians: the audacious strike zone of Vic Carapazza, the ejections of Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin and John Gibbons, the use of two position players as relievers, the inability of the Jays to score despite loading the bases twice. Buried beneath all of this, however, is one key element has been somewhat overlooked, one that has implications beyond the scope of this one game: Marcus Stroman&#8217;s outstanding performance.</p>
<p>Hailed as the de facto ace of the Jays’ starting rotation prior to the start of the season, Stroman entered 2016 lofty expectations placed on his shoulders not just by the fan base, but also himself. After suffering a devastating injury during spring training of 2015, Stroman &#8211; through pure determination and grit &#8211; rehabbed his way back to the mound to win <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=stromma01&amp;year=2015&amp;t=p" target="_blank">all four of his regular season starts</a> in September (all against AL East opponents) with a 1.67 ERA over 27.0 innings pitched. There was little doubt, it seemed, that Stroman, brimming with confidence and swagger, would continue to dominate the opposition.</p>
<p>For his <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=stromma01&amp;t=p&amp;year=&amp;share=3.38#31-38-sum:pitching_gamelogs" target="_blank">first eight starts</a>, Stroman did just that, posting an ERA of 3.54 while holding opponents to a .220 batting average and .256 slugging percentage. Then, inexplicably, the wheels fell off. Over his <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=stromma01&amp;t=p&amp;year=&amp;share=2.90#39-46-sum:pitching_gamelogs" target="_blank">next eight starts</a>, opponents hit .353 with a slugging percentage of .568, with Stroman posting an ERA of 7.54 over 45.1 innings, raising his season ERA to 5.33, tied for 6th worst in the league. To say that he was struggling would be an understatement, and for the last several weeks debate has raged amongst media and fans about what to do with Marcus Stroman.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/marcus-stroman-minors-1.3657289%20" target="_blank">crux of the debate </a>was outlined by Steven Tzemis of CBC Sports, who looks at both sides of the argument for sending Stroman to Buffalo to work on his mechanics. On the one hand, lost in that poor eight game stretch were two good starts against the Phillies and the Twins, while four of those starts came against the offensive powerhouses Orioles and Red Sox, suggesting that Stroman&#8217;s struggles were in part due to drawing starts against two of the then-hottest teams in baseball.</p>
<p>Sending Stroman down would mean Drew Hutchison being recalled from the Bisons to take his place, who, despite his 2.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 14 starts down in Buffalo, has a large enough sample size in the majors to suggest that he is not capable of facing big league hitters. In 28 starts last season, Hutchison had a 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. On the flip side, there is strong data to suggest that Stroman would benefit from working through his mechanical issues in Triple-A rather than trying to sort them out against major league hitters. His <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=573186&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=mph&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=04/01/2014&amp;endDate=07/02/2016&amp;gFilt=allmlb" target="_blank">velocity is down</a> this season on every pitch, particularly compared to his rookie season:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="87"><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td width="98"><strong>Fourseam</strong></td>
<td width="90"><strong>Sinker</strong></td>
<td width="93"><strong>Change</strong></td>
<td width="89"><strong>Slider</strong></td>
<td width="89"><strong>Curve</strong></td>
<td width="76"><strong>Cutter</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">2014</td>
<td width="98">94.41</td>
<td width="90">93.37</td>
<td width="93">86.32</td>
<td width="89">88.01</td>
<td width="89">83.34</td>
<td width="76">91.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">2015</td>
<td width="98">93.29</td>
<td width="90">92.56</td>
<td width="93">84.71</td>
<td width="89">86.43</td>
<td width="89">82.58</td>
<td width="76">90.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="87">2016</td>
<td width="98">93.06</td>
<td width="90">92.81</td>
<td width="93">84.63</td>
<td width="89">86.05</td>
<td width="89">81.31</td>
<td width="76">90.41</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Additionally, batters are hitting him hard, with a 33.6% hard contact rate copared to 21.8% in 2015 and 23.5% in 2014, while his soft contact rate has decreased from 24.4% last season to 16.4% this season, suggesting that his recent struggles are more than just facing good opponents.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays have thus far elected to allow Stroman to work things out while toeing the rubber every five days &#8211; a decision that has been met with some criticism from those in the fan base who seem to forget, as Sportsnet&#8217;s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/stroman-shows-progress-blue-jays-canada-day-marathon/" target="_blank">Shi Davidi points out</a>, that Stroman is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher with just 41 career big league starts under his belt, and is bound to face some adversity as he continues his development. For his part, Stroman has been working refining his slider, adjusting his pitch mix and getting the ball down, watching video to see if his delivery was somehow tipping his pitches, and making a conscious effort to do his thinking between starts and &#8220;trust the process&#8221; while on the mound.</p>
<p>Last Sunday in Chicago, he introduced a mechanical adjustment that kept his hands lower at the start of his delivery, and was rewarded with 12 groundball outs on sinkers down in the strike zone. Though not a fantastic start, it represented a step in the right direction, and brought about a conversation between Stroman and general manager Ross Atkins in Colorado in which Atkins expressed the club&#8217;s confidence in Stroman and their desire to help him succeed.</p>
<p>Stroman has no problem wearing his heart on his sleeve, displaying emotion that leaves no doubt as to how he&#8217;s feeling about a particular performance. While that may rub some people the wrong way, it is indicative of just how badly Stroman wants to be &#8220;that guy&#8221;, so much so that he <a href="	&quot;I%20see everything anyone says about me. I read the blogs. I read the tweets. That's fuel. That's motivation. I see people say I should be sent to [Triple-A] Buffalo, that I should be in the bullpen, that I shouldn't be in the majors. Those are the same people who said I shouldn't have played college baseball at Duke. They're the ones who said I'm 5-foot-8 and that I was too short to be a starting pitcher. Now I'm struggling, and I'm hearing it all again….Fine. I like to have those doubters in my life.&quot;" target="_blank">uses the words of his doubters to fuel his efforts</a>.</p>
<p>Taught by his father to work hard and play with a chip on his shoulder as a way of overcoming his stature, Stroman embraces the negativity: &#8220;I see everything anyone says about me. I read the blogs. I read the tweets. That&#8217;s fuel. That&#8217;s motivation. I see people say I should be sent to [Triple-A] Buffalo, that I should be in the bullpen, that I shouldn&#8217;t be in the majors. Those are the same people who said I shouldn&#8217;t have played college baseball at Duke. They&#8217;re the ones who said I&#8217;m 5-foot-8 and that I was too short to be a starting pitcher. Now I&#8217;m struggling, and I&#8217;m hearing it all again….Fine. I like to have those doubters in my life.&#8221; His desire to reach his full potential has him at the ballpark every day from 2pm to 11pm, doing whatever he can to improve.</p>
<p>This hard work and effort culminated in a fantastic outing on Canada Day, in which Stroman gave up just one run on five hits while striking out six over 6 2/3 innings, with ten of his twenty outs came via the ground ball. While this performance may be easy to overlook within the context of a nineteen inning game, and the fact that it&#8217;s just one performance, the importance of it cannot be understated. Though it is a small sample size, he recovered his velocity on Friday, averaging 94.27 on his fourseam fast ball, 93.49 on his sinker, 88.15 on his slider, 82.91 on his curve and 91.17 on his cutter. And, while it&#8217;s just one game, it represents a huge step forward (after taking a baby step last outing in Chicago) that will be necessary in order for Toronto to make a playoff push.</p>
<p>With Aaron Sanchez already being monitored and likely heading to the bullpen at some point this season, and Marco Estrada&#8217;s unpredictable back issues that could potentially sideline him during the second half of the season, it is absolutely critical that Marcus Stroman regain his form. At whatever point in time Sanchez is inevitably moved to the bullpen, Drew Hutchison will take his place in the rotation. Beyond him, there really are no other viable options either in Buffalo or in the bullpen to step into the rotation should Stroman be unable to work out his issues while taking the mound every fifth day.</p>
<p>As it stands, the Jays likely will look to add to their pitching depth before the non-waiver trade deadline of August 1st, but with few assets and the need to bolster the floundering bullpen, the Jays may not be able to acquire someone who can (or should) step into the rotation for any length of time. Stroman wants to be &#8220;that guy&#8221;; the Jays need him to be &#8220;that guy&#8221;. It&#8217;s a fine balance between allowing a player his growing pains as he develops and ensuring that pitcher sent out there gives his team the best chance to win. In the case of Stroman, I would argue that no one has earned that bit of leeway more than he has, no one works harder, and no one is more determined. Beyond that, his adjustments have translated into two consecutive starts that each demonstrated marked improvement over the last. That&#8217;s really all he needs to do. He has confidence in his abilities, the team has confidence in his abilities. Perhaps it&#8217;s time everyone involved take a step back with their lofty expectations and allow him room to grow.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>Marco Estrada, knowing that he had to take the mound despite suffering from terrible back pain, put in an absolutely gutsy performance in Saturday&#8217;s 9-6 Jays win that snapped Cleveland&#8217;s 14-game winning streak. It appears <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/07/02/blue-jays-estrada-could-miss-next-start-with-bad-back" target="_blank">likely that he will miss his next start</a> against Detroit on Thursday which, given that the All-Star break is next week, would give him some much-needed extra rest.</li>
<li>Ryan Goins, who pitched the eighteenth inning on Friday, said after the game that <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/indians-extend-winning-streak-by-outlasting-jays-2-1-in-19-innings/article30732340/" target="_blank">his arm felt fine</a> and that he would be able to play on Saturday. However, just hours before Saturday’s game, Goins was <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-notebook-injured-goins-no-regrets-mound-appearance/%20" target="_blank">placed on the 15-day disabled list </a>with right forearm tightness. I have no doubt that Goins was sore after yesterday&#8217;s pitching performance; I also would not be surprised if his DL stint has more to do with the need to call up reinforcements rather than an actual injury. Either way, he deserves a tip of the cap (as does Darwin Barney) for stepping out of their comfort zone and onto the mound in an effort to secure their team a win.</li>
<li>Anyone who watched Friday’s marathon against Cleveland is well aware of Vic Carapazza’s egregious strike zone, but may be unaware that this is not the first time he’s called a game in which Stroman has pitched. Carapazza was behind the plate for Stroman’s start against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS and, according to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/07/01/jays-lose-19-inning-marathon-with-some-help-from-home-plate-umpire.html%20" target="_blank">Baseball Savant</a>, Carapazza called strikes on 15 percent of balls outside the zone. Moreover, Carapazza is one of ten umpires who have a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/businessweek/graphics/baseballs-worst-call-of-the-day/#/umpires/ranking/2016" target="_blank">0.85 correct call rate </a>(the lowest is John Hirschbeck with a correct call rate of 0.84). No one can expect a human to be perfect, but they should be held accountable when they consistently perform below average and likely impact the outcome of the game. Umpiring should never be the story; robot umps would ensure that the players dictate the outcome of the game.</li>
<li>Veteran Jason Grilli, who has quickly become a team leader and fan favourite since being traded to Toronto by the Atlanta Braves, is <a href="http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/187235652/jason-grilli-comeback" target="_blank">no stranger to making a comeback</a>. Here, he compares pitching to an artist who likes to paint, and talks about his dream of raising a World Series banner with the team that he loved while growing up &#8211; yes, Jason Grilli grew up a Toronto Blue Jays fan.</li>
<li>And, finally. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson appeared on the MLB Network’s <em>Play Ball </em>Saturday morning, during which he discussed <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/21781428/v883471483/josh-donaldsons-approach-to-hitting-on-play-ball" target="_blank">his approach to hitting</a>, his love of baseball, the <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/21781428/v883471183/donaldson-discusses-his-career-acting-on-play-ball" target="_blank">possibility of an acting career</a>, and, of course, his hair. It really is must-see TV.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why Marcus Stroman Needs to be Sent Down</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/20/why-marcus-stroman-needs-to-be-sent-down/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/20/why-marcus-stroman-needs-to-be-sent-down/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jun 2016 14:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ve written a couple of articles about Marcus Stroman for Baseball Prospectus Toronto this year. In March, I wrote that the Blue Jays needed to sign him to an extension that resembles the one Corey Kluber inked with Cleveland last year. Two weeks ago, I wrote about a way to try to fix Marcus’ struggles, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ve written a couple of articles about Marcus Stroman for Baseball Prospectus Toronto this year. In March, I wrote that the Blue Jays needed to <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/07/marcus-stroman-toronto-blue-jays-extension/" target="_blank">sign him to an extension</a> that resembles the one Corey Kluber inked with Cleveland last year. Two weeks ago, I wrote about a way to try to fix Marcus’ struggles, by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/06/trying-to-fix-marcus-stroman/" target="_blank">throwing the four-seam fastball more often</a>, and higher in the zone.</p>
<p>Today, I’m saying that the Blue Jays need to send Marcus Stroman down to the minor leagues, be it Buffalo, New Hampshire, or whichever team the Blue Jays management trusts the most. I’m not linking these pieces in this paragraph so you’ll go and read them. Hopefully you already have, and if you haven’t, feel free. But I’m linking them because they represent what has occurred to Stroman in 2016. This was supposed to be his year. He worked so hard to get back on the mound in 2015, and when he did, he dominated, winning all four of his starts in the regular season, and one more in the playoffs. The Blue Jays didn’t make the flashiest moves to bolster the rotation in the off-season, making this Stroman’s rotation to lead in 2016. He got the opening day start. Some people were even picking him to win the Cy Young award. Everything was looking up.</p>
<p>But, as we all know, he has fallen flat. After yesterday&#8217;s shellacking against the Orioles, his ERA now stands at 5.23. His stand rate is just 63.2%. Simply put, too many runners are reaching base, and once they are there, they are coming around to score. And it’s not hard to see where the problem has been in his game. Example A:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/location.png"><img class=" wp-image-3988 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/location.png" alt="location" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>That’s the strike zone plot from Stroman’s start against the Orioles yesterday. In the upper half of the zone (or right under the line), you have seven singles, a double, a home run, two flyouts, and a GIDP. That’s a .750 batting average. In 2016, batters have hit Stroman to the tune of .366/.416/.707 on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone. For comparison, in Stroman’s 2014 season, they hit .225/.266/.313 on those same pitches.</p>
<p>For Stroman to succeed, he cannot be throwing his sinker at the top of the zone. When he does, the batters hit it. <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/744610373559541760" target="_blank">Hard</a>. This is different than what I proposed in the article a couple of weeks ago, when I suggested Stroman should start to throw his four-seam fastball high in the zone. The goal of that pitch selection would be to change the eye level of the batter. Stroman isn&#8217;t trying to throw the ball up there. He&#8217;s just missing his spots.</p>
<p>After reinventing himself over the past few years as a contact pitcher, Stroman has come to rely more and more on the sinker. It is what allowed him to post a 64.1 percent groundball rate in 2015, and a 58.7 percent mark thus far in 2016. When he&#8217;s getting the ball down, he&#8217;s just fine. But when that pitch doesn&#8217;t work out as intended, Stroman doesn&#8217;t work. It&#8217;s of the utmost important that he is able to control it. Right now, he&#8217;s not.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why Marcus Stroman needs to be sent down to one of the Blue Jays minor league affiliates.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays currently sit three games back in the AL East. The Boston Red Sox don&#8217;t seem to be going away anytime soon and the same goes for the Orioles. This is going to be a three team race for the rest of the season. The Blue Jays can&#8217;t afford to have Stroman figure things out at the major league level. Not when every game matters.</p>
<p>After Sunday&#8217;s game against the Orioles, the Blue Jays won&#8217;t be playing an AL East opponent until July 29th. That&#8217;s a span of 39 days. Some might argue that because these games aren&#8217;t interdivison games, it&#8217;s fine for Stroman to stay in the bigs and try to find his control. I think the complete opposite is true. Stroman needs to be 100 percent when the Blue Jays start to play the Orioles and Red Sox once again next month. In order for that to happen, beyond getting his control back, he needs his confidence back. Continuing to get on that major league mound every fifth day and getting shelled each and every time out there isn&#8217;t going to get his confidence back. What could get it back is going down to the minor leagues, working with the necessary coaches to fix his control, and mowing down minor league lineups.</p>
<p>There is also a replacement for Stroman waiting in Buffalo for a scenario just like this one. Without it, this plan wouldn&#8217;t work. Drew Hutchison, the Blue Jays 2015 opening day starter, has been dominant in AAA. In 13 games started, his ERA sits at 2.87. He has struck out 85 batters and only walked 26. By all reports, his slider is nasty once again. It definitely looked good in his lone start with the Blue Jays in 2016. It&#8217;s not like the Blue Jays would be calling upon Ramon Ortiz or Chien-Ming Wang to make a few starts. Hutchison is a player who has had success in the past, and is only in the minor leagues at all because of the success of the rest of the Toronto rotaiton. With the Blue Jays offense potent once again, they can win with Drew Hutchison on the mound. The same cannot be said for Marcus Stroman recently.</p>
<p>At this point, it&#8217;s not fair to Stroman and to the team to keep on throwing him out into the fire and expecting him not to get burned. He&#8217;s young. He&#8217;s a competitor who will do anything to succeed. If that includes going down for a few weeks to get his mojo back, it needs to happen. The Blue Jays management, coaches, and Stroman will surely have some talks this week as to how to proceed, because everybody knows something isn&#8217;t right.</p>
<p>There are two off days this week, so theoretically Stroman&#8217;s next start can be pushed back a while if they want to give him another try in the big leagues with some additional rest and time to work on things. That could be a solution, but I don&#8217;t think it will be. I think he needs to go down to Buffalo. I hear it&#8217;s pretty nice this time of year, maybe he&#8217;ll enjoy it.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: The Return of Drew</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Apr 2016 17:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1984</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The last [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The last stroll through the Blue Jays rotation included continued dominance from Sanchez, Stroman, and Happ, another stumble from R.A. Dickey, and a mediocre turn from Estrada, all against the rough and tumble AL East. This week&#8217;s slate included the final AL East series for a while, a visit from the Oakland A&#8217;s and a return of an old friend.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 67 Strikes, 34 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch mix: 3 Fourseam Fastballs, 55 Sinkers, 18 Changeups, 16 Sliders, 5 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t quite the dominance that Stroman showed over the Yankees in his last outing, but once again Toronto&#8217;s nominal ace showed why he is being counted on to lead this pitching staff in 2016. Facing a tough Orioles lineup, Stroman allowed just seven baserunners in seven innings, and was only hurt by the long ball, with home runs coming off the bats of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, both of whom will do that on occasion. The second of those blasts came with nobody out in the seventh and a runner on, cutting the Blue Jays lead from 4-1 to 4-3. It was actually the third time this season in four outings that Stroman has allowed runs in his final inning of work, twice by allowing home runs. Still, it was a very strong performance, and nobody can ask for more than he gave.</p>
<p>One thing that may be sticking out to you so far is how few punch outs Stroman is getting in 2016. His strikeout rate on the season is just 13.3 percent, which is <em>well</em> below league average. Instead, it has been groundballs and weak contact that have been carrying the Duke grad through the day. Against the Orioles, Stroman managed to generate ground balls on 52.2 percent of balls in play. It wasn&#8217;t quite the crazy ratio he showed against the Yankees (73.9 percent), but still well above the league norm. He also used a much greater variety in his pitches this time out, throwing a bunch of changeups and sliders, but very few curves or cutters. He also brought out a few fourseam fastballs, which is something he has been avoiding since the season opener against the Rays. It&#8217;s a good pitch for swings and misses if used more often, but has more value as one to generate popups from people expecting his sinker. After all, the four-seamer drops five inches fewer on average than Stroman&#8217;s sinker.</p>
<p>In the end, Stroman succeeded because he pounded the strike zone (only three three-ball counts), kept the ball down and changed speeds with a variety of pitches. If a pitcher can do two of those things, he usually has a chance to win. Stroman did all three.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/speed.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_04_19_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP 0 HR, 58 Strikes, 36 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 83 Knuckleballs, 10 Twoseam Fastballs, 1 Changeup</strong></p>
<p>When this game started, it looked like it was going to be yet another R.A. Dickey April Disaster™. The first four hitters went groundball single, rocket double, walk, rocket single. That left runners on the corners with nobody out, and two runs already in. But Dickey settled down quickly, getting a double play grounder (which scored another run) and a strikeout to end the inning. From that point on, Dickey only allowed three more baserunners, two of whom were immediately erased on double plays. In the end, he had put up his first &#8220;Quality Start&#8221; of the season, against an offense that had been on fire in the early part of the season.</p>
<p>Oftentimes the biggest factor for Dickey&#8217;s success is merely his ability to get ahead of hitters. When he is falling behind, batters can sit on a knuckler in a specific spot, or if they&#8217;re way ahead, the extremely hittable fastball. When that happens, Dickey gets crushed. That wasn&#8217;t the case this time out though, as after the shaky first (3/6 first pitch strikes), Dickey started off 75 percent of the hitters he faced with a pitch in the zone.</p>
<p>The other noteworthy thing is that Dickey threw a changeup in this game. As <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/changing-things-up-r-a-dickey-change-up/" target="_blank">I have mentioned in the past</a>, Dickey has a very good changeup. As a knuckleballer, it&#8217;s something he doesn&#8217;t need to break out too many times in a game, but he should go to it more often when he&#8217;s behind in the count if only to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. Now, he only threw the one in this game, but if he starts breaking it out more often, we could see a lot more of this:</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://gifs.houseofthebluebird.com/wp-content/uploads/DickeyChange1.gif" alt="" width="478" height="270" /></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 62 strikes, 42 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 44 Fourseam Fastballs, 30 Changeups, 8 Curveballs, 15 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>This was certainly an unusual performance from Marco Estrada. After all, it&#8217;s not often you see a player put up a line that sees him leave the game with a higher WHIP (2.00) than ERA (1.80). It was definitely a struggle, as last year&#8217;s standout pitcher threw 104 pitches in just five innings, with just 59.6 percent of them going for strikes. He gave up a lot of hits and quite a few walks, which meant there were baserunners on pretty much the whole game. The reason only one of them actually came around to score is that Estrada kept on getting huge strikeouts in key spots. He finished the game with nine, which leaves him with 20 Ks on the season in just 18 innings pitched. He was always something of a strikeout pitcher in Milwaukee, so it&#8217;s nice to see this ability returning in the early going.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s something I&#8217;m going to harp on every time I write one of these, but Estrada&#8217;s biggest success comes when he is working up in the zone with his fastball, and this game was a perfect example of that. Three of the four hits on fastballs came on pitches low in the zone, but for the most part he worked hard up and soft down, keeping the Orioles hitters off balance enough to get those big strikeouts when he needed them.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_04_21_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 53 strikes, 32 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 8 Fourseam Fastballs, 48 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, 15 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>The last time I did one of these I said it was getting hard to come up with superlatives to describe Aaron Sanchez so far this season. Well&#8230;he made it a little easier this time, having easily his worst start of the season, and probably the worst of his career.</p>
<p>Coming home after two very tough losses to the Orioles, the Jays were hoping that Sanchez could continue his dominant run and get them back in the win column. Instead, he got ripped around the ballpark, giving up a career high 10 hits and allowing more runs than innings pitched for the first time in his career as a starter. It was also the second shortest outing of his career, behind only his first career start which came against the Orioles last year. To put it simply, he was really bad. He wasn&#8217;t helped much by his defense, as Josh Donaldson missed a would-be double play ball in the second inning (which led to a runner being thrown out at home, so he still got one out), which was then followed by a groundout. Instead of being out of the inning, Sanchez still had an out to go and then promptly served up a three-run homer to Chris Coghlan. Overall though, this loss was on Sanchez, and he knows it.</p>
<p>If someone wanted to figure out what went wrong, they might first notice that Sanchez threw a lot more changeups than his last start when he dominated the Red Sox. In fact, this led Greg Wisniewski to suggest that Sanchez <a title="Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">can succeed as two-pitch pitcher</a> who relies heavily on his fastball. Interestingly though, nine of the ten A&#8217;s hits came on Sanchez fastballs, with the other coming on a cutter. And he was throwing some of the curveballs and changeups for strikes, so it wasn&#8217;t as though people were able to just sit back and wait for the fastball.</p>
<p>The biggest reason for the struggles is that Sanchez&#8217; fastball just wasn&#8217;t good in this game. It was the slowest it has been all season by both average velocity (94.34) and max velocity (96.59). He was also getting less movement on it, with over an inch less horizontal run than his previous low (7.82&#8243; vs 8.83&#8243;), and nearly 2.5 inches off of his season high (10.28&#8243;). As a pitcher who relies on a big time fastball to generate the vast majority of his outs, it&#8217;s tough to succeed when that fastball isn&#8217;t there. Hopefully the extra rest for his next start helps bring back the successful version of the heater.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1985" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)" width="750" height="262" /></a></p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 59 strikes, 34 balls.</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 31 Fourseam Fastballs, 23 Sinkers, 13 Cutters, 9 Changeups, and 16 Curveballs.</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ continues to make Tony LaCava look good, showing that the Jays were wise to invest in him this season. For the second straight start, Happ went seven innings, something he accomplished just six times all of last season. He gave up a season high three runs, but if that&#8217;s something you can say, you know someone has been pitching well.</p>
<p>The results were somewhat interesting, as despite throwing 70.3 percent first pitch strikes (which is excellent), Happ struck out only one batter. However, he also generated groundballs at a greater than 50 percent clip (52.2) for the second time this season. This is an interesting development for a pitcher who came into the season with a 38.8 percent groundball rate for his career. In fact, he used those grounders to generate three double plays, two of which preceded run-scoring singles.</p>
<p>As mentioned, Happ has done this twice, the other time coming against the New York Yankees in his second outing of the season. So logically, we should see if there was anything in common between those two starts:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1986" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (4)" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the two outings where Happ generated a high percentage of grounders, he used the curveball a <em>lot</em> more often than in the two outings where he was getting flyballs. This is a trend that should be interesting to watch, as the Jays have one of the best defensive infields in baseball (if not <em>the </em>best), and it could help him get out of a lot of jams.</p>
<h3>Drew Hutchison</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 55 strikes, 40 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 54 Fourseam Fastballs, 6 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, and 25 Sliders.</strong></p>
<p>In an effort to give the rest of the rotation a little bit of rest, the Blue Jays called up a former face for a spot start.</p>
<p>Drew Hutchison hadn&#8217;t exactly been dazzling in Buffalo, but Toronto hadn&#8217;t had an off day since the start of the Yankees series and needed the spot start. The overall results of the outing were pretty decent, as Hutch allowed only the two runs and struck out five. Sure, he also walked three batters and both runs were scored on home run balls, but as spot starts go, the Jays couldn&#8217;t have asked for more.</p>
<p>Of course, this wasn&#8217;t just any spot start. It was also last year&#8217;s opening day starter trying to show that he belongs in the big leagues. So while the totals were good, the actual process was mixed:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The good: Hutch is throwing hard and his slider looks WAY better. <br />The bad: He still has absolutely no fastball command.</p>
<p>&mdash; Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/724302164554833920">April 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>A big part of the problem for Drew Hutchison last year was that he simply lost the slider that had earned him so much praise at the end of 2014. He was throwing it harder and it was flattening out (see image below). In his first outing this year, both of those problems seemed to be corrected; he was throwing it a bit slower and getting much more drop. In addition, he was able to throw it for strikes (68 percent of pitches) which helped him get whiffs (misses on 25 percent of swings).</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t the only problem though. Hutchison also struggled with his fastball command in 2015, leaving a bunch of them up in the zone. He got more swings and misses, but also gave up a lot of hard contact. It was much of the same on Sunday, as Hutchison was all over the place with his fastball, and very rarely down in the zone. He&#8217;s going to need to correct this if he wants to return to the major leagues full time.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1987" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (5)" width="750" height="252" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>35.0 IP, 38 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, 2 HBP, 6 HR. 2-2, 4.63 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
123.0 IP, 114 H, 54 R, 50 ER, 41 BB, 95 K, 4 HBP, 12 HR. 9-5, 3.66 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>With the exception of a dreadful start from Aaron Sanchez, the Blue Jays have to be pretty pleased with how the rotation performed this time through. No other starter gave up more than three runs, and a solid start from R.A. Dickey must have been particularly nice to see. Next week&#8217;s games come against the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays, both of whom possess weak hitting lineups.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays Can Emulate the Rays Pitching Success</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/how-the-blue-jays-can-emulate-the-rays-pitching-success/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/how-the-blue-jays-can-emulate-the-rays-pitching-success/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Mar 2016 10:30:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total starts from Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, and Matt Moore, the Rays pitching staff allowed the fourth fewest runs in the American League in 2015. It wasn&#8217;t all defense either, as their team ERA and FIP of 3.74 and 3.91 were also fourth best in the American League. With the rotation vulnerable and the depth exposed, the Rays did exactly what any smart, analytical organization would do: <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/tampa-bay-rays-kevin-cash-pitching-change-limit-three-times-through-order-051415">they overextended their bullpen</a>. Wait, what? The underlying thought is that the Rays were cognizant of the times through the order penalty, and were ensuring that the opposition didn’t take advantage of their fatiguing depth starters who had been thrust into the spotlight.</p>
<h3>What is the times through the order penalty (TTOP)?</h3>
<p>While not actually a penalty, per se, the TTOP shows that as a pitcher faces a batter more times in a game, their performance gets worse – or from an alternative perspective, the batter’s performance improves. In late 2014, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-third-time-through-the-lineup-is-a-charm/">Brett Talley of Fangraphs</a> identified a list of candidates for potential regression based upon an unsustainable level of success as they faced batters for a third time. In the article, he laid down a nifty little table which I’m going to borrow for this piece.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-531" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png" alt="Table 1" width="430" height="64" /></a></p>
<p>In short, what the above table shows is that in the first time through the order, the pitcher has a notable advantage over the batters. However, the second time through is worse, but only to the point of being a neutral matchup. Meanwhile, the third time through is nothing short of a nightmare for a starting pitcher. In the third time through the lineup, batters have an OPS that is six percent higher than their season mark, and 11 percent better than their first time through. The reasoning behind this relationship has been studied extensively, but from what I can gather, a single cause cannot be drawn out from the mess of variables. Instead, it’s likely that some combination of the pitcher tiring and the batter making adjustments from previous plate appearances contribute to the discrepancy. Still, while the origin of the effect may still be shrouded in mystery, the impact of the effect is beyond question.</p>
<p>Much of the legwork for the TTOP was done by Mitchel Lichtman when, in November 2013, he wrote a pair of articles looking at the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22156">TTOP phenomenon under the microscope</a>. At the end of the first article, Lichtman came to a number of interesting conclusions. Though he used wOBA instead of OPS to evaluate, his observations meshed with the above table, where the pitcher is better than usual the first time through, and then gets progressively worse the longer he remains in the game. He also observed that a pitcher’s career times through the order patterns are have almost no predictive value. Finally, while the wOBA values may be slightly different, both good and bad pitchers suffer from the TTOP at around the same magnitude.</p>
<p>Following the initial article, Lichtman received a lot of feedback from commenters asking how the TTOP effect may vary depending upon the <em>type </em>of starting pitcher; with specific questions around fastball usage and arsenal diversity. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22235">Once again, his observations were very interesting</a>.</p>
<p>Starting pitchers who rely almost entirely on fastballs (&gt;75 percent) had the most immediate and devastating TTOP impact, while starting pitchers who threw less than 50 perfect fastballs had the slowest and shallowest decline as a result of the TTOP. His analysis showed that batters facing fastball heavy starters improved their wOBA by 47 points the third time through, whereas batters facing the fastball light starters improved their wOBA by just 18 points over the same period. This conclusion passes the logic test, as one would reasonably expect batters to improve at a more rapid pace when their focus can be narrowed to a single pitch.</p>
<p>After focusing specifically on fastball usage, Lichtman turned to arsenal diversity, splitting pitchers into groups based upon the number of different pitches thrown more than 10 percent of the time. As expected, the overall trend was similar to that observed with fastball usage, where the starting pitchers who threw just one pitch more than 10 percent of the time had the largest decline the third time through, at 36 points of wOBA. Starters who feature two, three, and four pitches saw batters improve by 34, 28, and 24 points of wOBA, respectively, over the same interval. Perhaps the most interesting point from this arsenal diversity analysis was the timing of the aforementioned declines. The two, three, and four pitch starters were steadily worse each time through, whereas the one pitch starter was considerably worse the second time through, but saw only a minor decline in performance after that.</p>
<h3>How does the times through the order penalty apply to the 2016 rotation?</h3>
<p>Looking first at the fastball usage trend, only Aaron Sanchez (76.71 percent) eclipses the 75 percent upper threshold identified by Lichtman. Note that this usage rate is exclusively from his 11 starts in 2015; his sinker/ four seam fastball usage rate as a reliever was 84.84 percent. This suggests that Sanchez could be the most susceptible to the TTOP – more so than any other rotation candidate – and should be watched the closest as he turns a lineup over for a second or third time. For a pitcher so heavily reliant on the fastball, if the opposition starts to pick it up or he loses command and has nowhere else to turn, he could get cratered in a hurry.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ (67.17 percent) and Drew Hutchison (65.24 percent) are the most susceptible among the middle tier (between 50 and 75 percent fastballs). Happ is likely more so affected than Hutchison because his next most frequently thrown pitch is another fastball-esque offering (cutter). Conversely, Marco Estrada (52.13 percent), Gavin Floyd (52.09 percent), and Marcus Stroman (50.84 percent) are arguably the least susceptible to the TTOP of the middle tier thanks to their near-50 percent fastball reliance. Jesse Chavez is on the low end of the spectrum, as his sinker and four seam fastball usage totaled just 35.76 percent; firmly establishing the right hander in the safest group according to Lichtman’s conclusions. Batters facing Chavez-type pitchers were worse than their season average in <em>both </em>their first <em>and </em>second time through. While Sanchez-types lose 47 points in wOBA against their third time through, Chavez-types lose just 18 points – a considerable improvement. This isn’t to say that Chavez has an endless leash, but if he’s cruising through the lineup’s second trip, Gibby probably doesn’t need to have his finger hovering over the panic button in preparation for the third.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-532" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png" alt="Table 2" width="843" height="267" /></a></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman stands as a man among boys under the arsenal diversity header. Even when his sinker and four seam fastball are summed into one offering, he <em>still </em>features five different pitches more than 10 percent of the time. Lichtman’s analysis didn’t expand the study to starters with five pitches, but those who throw four pitchers suffered the TTOP at the slowest rate; losing 20 points of wOBA against their third time through, whereas those who threw three, two, and one pitch(es) at least 10 percent of the time lost 22, 28, and 31 points. We saw, both in September and into the postseason, that because of his deep arsenal, Stroman can plan for lineups in entirely different ways. On September 12th against the Yankees, he went 51 percent fastballs, 22 percent curveballs, and 14 percent cutters. When Stroman faced the same lineup 11 days later, his fastball usage dropped to 37 percent, his curveball usage dropped to 3 percent, and he instead attacked with sliders (27 percent) and changeups (23 percent). Unpredictability is an asset, but the fact that Marcus Stroman can be unpredictable with five different plus pitches is what makes him a legitimate ace in the making. That&#8217;s also exactly why you should expect to see him pitch into the seventh and eighth innings regularly in 2016. At 5-foot-9, Stro is poised to be one of baseball&#8217;s strongest workhorses.</p>
<p>Once again Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ find themselves potentially wielding the short straws, but interestingly, despite their similarities, the general narrative is that they need to move in divergent directions to be successful. Sanchez is all fastballs (76.71 percent) and curveballs (14.29 percent), and most agree that he needs to continue to advance his breaking ball while also developing a reliable third pitch to shake the reliever tag. On the other hand, Happ experienced much of his recent success by basically abandoning his breaking and off-speed pitches and going hard-hard-hard with everything, which the internet has lauded and encouraged. The two theories appear to agree that among the <em>traditional </em>starting pitcher candidates on the Blue Jays roster, if Gibby’s going to go with the quick hook before a starter faces his 19th batter, it will likely be to grab Sanchez or Happ.</p>
<h3>Will the Jays consider the times through the order penalty?</h3>
<p><em>Traditional </em>was used purposefully in the previous paragraph, as the embers of this article were first sparked back in October when John Gibbons went to retrieve R.A. Dickey in the fifth inning of a game the Blue Jays were ahead 7-1. Media and fans alike were stunned, wondering (rather loudly, and to anyone who would listen) how you could pull a guy one out away from qualifying for his first postseason win, in a six run game no less. The bottom line is that Dickey faced nineteen batters, and 17-18-19 went fly out to centerfield, single to centerfield, line out to centerfield on a full count. The Rangers were on the knuckleball, and Gibbers had no interest in letting Shin-Soo Choo – who was already 2-for-2 when he strode to the plate – see it a third time.</p>
<p>Game four of the ALDS obviously means more than say, game 45 in May, so whether or not Gibbons continues to manage so aggressively with any starter is still yet to be determined. But if the organization’s offseason has been any indication, the front office is at least leaving the door open for the possibility. In order for such a philosophy to ascend from concept to reality, the roster needs to have a stable of pitchers capable of throwing multiple innings in relief. While none resulted in signings, the Blue Jays were reportedly in active pursuit of Craig Stammen, Yusmero Petit, and Joe Blanton in hopes of augmenting their bullpen, all of whom perfectly fit that criteria.</p>
<p>The seven spots in the Opening Day bullpen are still largely in flux behind the big three of Drew Storen, Brett Cecil, and Roberto Osuna. Storen and Cecil. As Table 3 below shows, in 2015, Storen and Cecil averaged 3.9 and 3.4 batters faced per appearance respectively. While I expect Osuna to be right there with Cecil holding on to small leads in the late innings, I suspect his utilization pattern will be quite different from the other two. He threw 70 innings across 68 relief appearances in 2015, and while that equates to just 4.0 batters faced per game, most, Gibby included, seem to think that number is going to rise. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/03/17/toronto-blue-jays-drew-storen-roberto-osuna-compete-for-closer-role/81896954/" target="_blank">In USA Today</a> John Gibbons was quoted as saying,  “Osuna can give you more than one inning. Drew’s probably limited to one inning. That’s kind of who they are.” On nights where on of Storen or Cecil is unavailable, it would be unsurprising to see Osuna pitch two innings.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-533" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png" alt="Table 3" width="586" height="485" /></a></p>
<p>Beyond those three, the bullpen competition really opens up. Despite becoming the poster boy for meltdown innings last year, Aaron Loup almost assuredly has a leg up if his arm injury proves minor, and with his regression into a pseudo-LOOGY, he’s another one-and-done type of pitcher (3.1 batters faced per game).</p>
<p>At least one of Jesse Chavez, Gavin Floyd, Drew Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez will find purchase as the fifth starter in the rotation, with the other three finding themselves in a battle for the bullpen. The loser(s) of the spring skirmishes, likely those with options (Sanchez and Hutchison), also face the possibility of a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/">demotion to the rotation in Buffalo</a> as insurance. Still, this is where the roots of any philosophical shift have the potential to really take hold. All four have been starting pitchers within the last two seasons (even Floyd!), and if tasked to work in relief, could easily come into a game in the fourth, fifth, or sixth inning and turn the opposing lineup over one or one-and-a-half times before handing the lead off to one of the late-inning dynamos.</p>
<p>Most of the other remaining candidates for the final couple of spots in the bullpen also fit the mould as potential multi-inning relievers extremely well. Pat Venditte, Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, and even Chad Jenkins have found varying degrees of success in baseball’s uppermost levels, facing five-plus batters per relief appearance. Even last December’s Rule 5 pick-up, Joe Biagini, feels like a legitimate option. The 24 year old has been a starter his entire minor league career, but in short bursts this spring, his fastball has been registering 95’s and 96’s on the gun, giving off the vibe that he might be the type of arm that could play up in relief when tasked with throwing twenty or thirty pitches and facing a lineup just once. Over the winter Andrew Stoeten <a href="http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/12/10/jays-select-rhp-joe-biagini-in-the-rule-five-draft/">offered forth the hypothesis</a> that the team may even see him as “Liam Hendriks 2.0”, and while, <em>no one can be Liam Hendriks</em>, it’s an interesting thought worth consideration. The periphery of the 40-man roster and the non-roster invitees also boast relief options with some length in former starter Scott Diamond and relievers Brady Dragmire, Chad Girodo, Ben Rowen, and Blake McFarland, the latter four of whom averaged 6.6, 5.3, 5.1, and 4.9 batters faced per 2015 appearance.</p>
<p>For the sake of argument, let&#8217;s envision an entirely plausible scenario in which Gavin Floyd wins the fifth spot, both Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchison are sent to Buffalo to stay stretched out, and Aaron Loup opens the season on the 15-day disabled list. In this case the Blue Jays head north with a bullpen comprised of Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Chavez, Venditte, Tepera, and Biagini. John Gibbons would have a dynamic mix of arms capable of handling any situation, and the length offered by the two converted starters in Chavez and Biagini would allow him to be hyper-aggressive with his bullpen and force a completely different look on opposing batters as soon as they appear to be getting comfortable with one of his starting pitchers. It would be an unprecedented approach outside of the confines of Tropicana Field, and could give the Blue Jays a much-needed edge as they battle four other strong teams in hopes of claiming their second AL East title in as many years. Mark Shapiro is known around baseball for his progressive thinking, and this might be the perfect opportunity to use that analytical mindset to directly improve the product on the field.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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