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	<title>Toronto &#187; Devon Travis</title>
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		<title>Devon Travis Staying Healthy Amidst Ups and Downs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/21/devon-travis-staying-healthy-amidst-ups-and-downs/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Aug 2018 15:12:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK &#8212; Not much has gone right for the Blue Jays this season. They’ve gotten precious little from their supposed best players which is a real twisting of the knife given that the team spent its offseason putting together some quality depth. As good as those depth players may be, they just can’t replace top-level [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK &#8212; Not much has gone right for the Blue Jays this season. They’ve gotten precious little from their supposed best players which is a real twisting of the knife given that the team spent its offseason putting together some quality depth. As good as those depth players may be, they just can’t replace top-level talent and tend to falter when they’re overexposed. And when almost all of your depth is overexposed, you end up out of the wild card race by the middle of July.</p>
<p>Surprisingly Devon Travis, the oft-injured second baseman, has been the healthiest he’s ever been this deep into an MLB season. The fact that he’s remained on the field in the one year that the Blue Jays have added reserve players that are capable of being more than black holes at second base has a twinge of irony to it, but both Travis and the team are happy that he’s still out on the field regularly.</p>
<p>BP Toronto caught up with Travis last weekend in New York to discuss his season, his health, and some of the year’s ups and downs.</p>
<p>The story on Travis is well told. He’s accrued a 3.6 WARP in his three-plus seasons in the league but has only played in 295 games. That’s out of 611 possible through Monday, August 20 which means Travis has only been on the field for 48 percent of Toronto’s regular season games since making his debut. He’s already played in 82 games this season, good for the second-most ever and he’s on track to beat his personal best of 101 barring another injury.</p>
<p>That said, it hasn’t been a breakthrough year. Travis has racked up -0.1 WARP so far this season and is posting the worst numbers of his career. Through 82 games he owns a slash line of .237/.284/.381 – all career-lows. There’s some poor BABIP at play but Travis has also seen some changes to his batted-ball profile. He’s hitting more ground balls than ever (51.2%) and fewer fly balls than ever (27.1%), meaning that he can’t really take advantage of a 14.8% HR/FB rate. Despite the down season portrayed by most metrics, Travis remains pleased with his recent work while acknowledging that it hasn’t been the smoothest of rides.</p>
<p><em>“It’s been a good year. Obviously off to a slow start but I’ve been able to rebound a little bit and kind of gather myself and get a nice little system of work back down and have something to build off of. It’s been nice. Yeah, not the start I was looking for but it’s been alright.”</em></p>
<p>Travis is right in that sense, as he has been a .259/.302/.404 hitter since June began and has managed to drive in 13 runs in 16 August games despite hitting just .235 for the month. Although they aren’t the numbers from his earlier seasons, he’s been getting better. He’s been getting some good luck with his batted-balls over that time, but he’s definitely going in the right direction.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Sometimes this game can give you things that sometimes there’s no explanation for – good and bad. Unfortunately for me the last couple of years it’s been bad.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Travis’ year began with an ugly slump as he hit just .148 over his first 18 games of the season, thanks in large part to a .190 BABIP. It resulted in him being demoted to Triple-A Buffalo. While it was expected that the team sent Travis down a level to find his game again, he says that wasn’t quite the case. There were no specific requests and no specific timeframe.</p>
<p><em>“They just said they wanted me to play more. That was really the bulk of it. Obviously I had gotten off to a slow start but, yeah, that’s all they said.”</em></p>
<p>Travis had appeared in 18 of the team’s 27 games when he was sent down on April 29, with Yangervis Solarte and Lourdes Gurriel impinging on his playing time with their strong play. The at-bats with the Bisons were regular but Travis didn’t have a great stint at AAA, hitting just .210/.234/.274 with only two extra-base hits in 62 plate appearances across 14 games. Did it help him get into some sort of rhythm or work out any kinks at the plate?</p>
<p><em>“I don’t think it hurt. Gave me a little bit of extra fire, that’s for sure. But I don’t think it hurt.”</em></p>
<p>So while his campaign still contained the usual speed bump, Travis has been able to stay off the DL (so far) for the first time in his Blue Jays career. His injury history is long for a player with fewer than four seasons of work.</p>
<p>A strong rookie season was derailed by a left shoulder injury that eventually required exploratory surgery in September. That November, Travis went under the knife again to correct Os acromiale, a condition where lack of ossification essentially left him with an accessory bone in his shoulder. The recovery process pushed his 2016 debut until the end of May. While he made it into the postseason that year he would sustain a right knee bone bruise in Game 1 of the ALDS and aggravate the injury in the first game of the ALCS. He underwent knee surgery to remove a small flap of cartilage in November. Travis was off to a nice start in 2017 but would be felled by another bone bruise in his right knee in early June which led to yet another surgery. It’s been rough.</p>
<p>He’s taken some time off because of a root canal, a sore knee, a sore foot and some rumored back discomfort around the trade deadline but has managed to avoid the DL so far in 2018. It’s something he attributes more to good fortune than any changes in his routine.</p>
<p><em>“Honestly man it’s luck. Sometimes this game can give you things that sometimes there’s no explanation for – good and bad. Unfortunately for me the last couple of years it’s been bad. Just staying on top of my work and having a little bit of good luck on my side.”</em></p>
<p>If that’s the case then those around the Blue Jays have to be pleased with his luck even as he tries to re-find his footing as a quality second baseman. After years of waiting for Travis to get out of the infirmary while Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney soaked up at-bats, this year it’s been the extras who have pushed Travis for work. Even with Solarte and Gurriel nursing their own injuries, the Blue Jays appeared to put the pressure on with their acquisition of Brandon Drury at the trade deadline. The glut of capable middle-infielders had many wondering whether or not another transaction to clear the logjam was on the way, and the fact that Travis did have to sit out a few games in the run up to July 31 didn’t slow the speculation. Currently it’s Richard Ureña who is picking up time at second base when Travis needs the day off.</p>
<p>With the addition of Drury, that made for four players capable of playing second that made their Blue Jays debut this season with Solarte, Gurriel, and Gift Ngoepe as the others. Although it might seem like those sorts of moves can leave one looking over their shoulder or affect the relationship between people battling for the same spot, Travis doesn’t see it that way.</p>
<p><em>“I don’t even think it’s really something that you think about too in depth, you know? Whenever your name is in that lineup you’ve got to go out there and make the most of your opportunity. Obviously it’s heightened a bit more when there are other guys that can play the same position as you but we’re all in this as a team and we all push each other to be as great as we can be, understanding that our goal every day is just to win ball games.”</em></p>
<p>The winning has been infrequent but Travis has been able to stay available while his main competitors are saddled with various injuries. For three seasons the story was that Travis would be a serious producer as long as he could stay on the field, only for him to struggle while dealing with minor ailments this time around. If Travis has turned the corner with his injury luck and can recapture his form, the Blue Jays will be able to boast one of the better second basemen in league. But that appears to be happening in piecemeal for the time being. As for the rest of the way, Travis’ top goal is one you might expect.</p>
<p><em>“Just stay healthy. That’s it. Just finish the season, put together a nice little streak with the boys, win some games and have a little fun.”</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Peter G. Aiken</em></p>
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		<title>The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 6 &#8211; 10)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/25/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-no-6-10/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Jul 2017 10:59:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Bichette]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Twice a year over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron publishes a list of who, in his opinion, are the fifty most valuable trade assets in baseball. Cameron&#8217;s most recent update was published over the All-Star break earlier this month. Rather than simply listing the best players, he has attempted to blend past performance and future projection [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Twice a year over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron publishes a list of who, in his opinion, are the fifty most valuable trade assets in baseball. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-honorable-mentions/">Cameron&#8217;s most recent update</a> was published over the All-Star break earlier this month. Rather than simply listing the best players, he has attempted to blend past performance and future projection with age, team control, and remaining salary. It&#8217;s why, for example, Clayton Kershaw falls outside of the top fifty despite being undeniably the best pitcher in baseball. Not only does he have a salary prohibitive to all but a small handful of clubs, but his contract has a clause that allows him to opt-out at the conclusion of any season in which he&#8217;s traded. Kershaw is the best pitcher on the planet. He&#8217;s nowhere near the most valuable to anyone but the Los Angeles Dodgers.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think Dave is the first to come up with the concept, but in terms of both execution and quality, it&#8217;s his that I look forward to most during the lulls of the baseball calendar. With that being said, it&#8217;s always a tad disappointing that we only get his insights and rankings of one, two, or maybe three Blue Jays players, if we&#8217;re lucky. This is why I&#8217;m going to tangent off Dave&#8217;s work, in an effort to offer you my perspective on the ten most valuable trade assets in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. If you have a differing view, please don&#8217;t be afraid to let me hear it.</p>
<p>With the trade deadline only a week away, there may be no more appropriate time for such an endeavour. Not only is the Blue Jays&#8217; 2017 season at a crossroads, but both their short- and long-term outlooks are as well. Few would argue that standing pat and hoping for better luck with the same aging roster seems untenable. Does the front office throw good prospects and money after bad players and try to make one final push, or begin unloading some legitimately valuable assets in an effort to avoid a Phillies-esque unrewarding collapse to the bottom of the division for the next five years?</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t meant to be the blueprint for a tear down or a shopping list for other teams; there are plenty of both floating around. The players that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are most likely to move aren&#8217;t going to shift the needle substantially either way. In fact, I&#8217;d be shocked if any of these ten get moved in the coming days. But just in case they do, here are, numerically, one man&#8217;s outlook of the Blue Jays&#8217; ten most valuable trade chips. Ten to six will be published this morning, with five to one released tomorrow.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><strong>#10: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70988">RHP Joe Biagini</a></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/10B-Biagini.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12598" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/10B-Biagini.png" alt="#10B Biagini" width="466" height="104" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">The tenth most valuable trade asset in the Toronto Blue Jays organization is right handed pitcher Joe Biagini. Since being claimed as a Rule 5 pick from San Francisco, the 27-year old has worked long relief, late innings, and even in the starting rotation. He certainly has the repertoire to stick in the rotation as his four-pitch mix has always graded exceptionally well by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/">Mike Sonne&#8217;s &#8220;Stuff&#8221; metric</a>. Biagini has produced modest strikeout rates, but offsets this with a remarkable proficiency for inducing groundballs. Belying his advanced age, Biagini has accumulated fewer than two years of service time and thus is under team control through 2021—including next season at league minimum. Biagini has the potential to build up significantly more trade value if he is able to settle into a role in the coming months and give teams a bit more certainty about what he is. The most recent rotation/bullpen swingman of similar quality with three-plus years of control to be traded was Drew Smyly, though he had affixed himself in the rotation by the time he was used as a piece in the <em>first</em> David Price trade back in 2014.</p>
<p>Biagini narrowly edged out catcher Russell Martin, who would have been the eleventh name on the list. Martin is still a top ten or fifteen catcher in baseball, but with the club owing him 40 million over the next two years, he&#8217;s paid like someone in the top three. Not only that, but he&#8217;ll be 35 years old in 2018 and nagging injuries have begun to take their toll on his game—particularly his arm behind the dish. Were the Blue Jays to pay his salary down, something that wasn&#8217;t considered in building the list, he could certainly net some interesting pieces. Look no further than the Astros acquisition of Brian McCann last winter, with the Yankees picking up 11 of the 34 million remaining on his deal in order to get a pair of intriguing prospects.</p>
<p><strong>#9: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100193">2B Devon Travis</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/9-Travis.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12582" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/9-Travis.png" alt="#9 Travis" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Devon Travis is 26-years old. He&#8217;s under control through 2020 with his first of three trips through arbitration on the horizon this winter. He capably plays an up-the-middle position, and is a career .292/.331/.462 hitter. This is the résumé of a player who should be one of the most valuable assets in any organization. Of course, as always, the story with Travis isn&#8217;t his performance on the field, but how much time he spends off it. In his brief career the second baseman has already been placed on the disabled list four times, two of which included subsequent transfers to the 60-day disabled list.</p>
<p>If he doesn&#8217;t play another game with the Blue Jays in 2017, shoulder and knee injuries will have limited him to 213 of a potential 486 regular season games since he made the Opening Day roster in 2015. Put another way: by the end of the season he&#8217;ll have accumulated three years of service time despite playing in just 44 percent of the team&#8217;s games over that time. Jedd Gyorko and Dee Gordon are second baseman with similar service time to have been moved in recent years, with the former landing Jon Jay in San Diego and the latter Andrew Heaney with the Dodgers, though neither has the tantalizing all-around upside that Travis possesses. With this kind of asset, the obvious most is to hold. You&#8217;d be selling for pennies on the dollar today, and a healthy Devon Travis is a piece that any team would love to build around tomorrow.</p>
<p><strong>#8: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58692">1B Justin Smoak</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/8-Smoak.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/8-Smoak.png" alt="#8 Smoak" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Of all of the players to receive consideration for the top ten, Justin Smoak&#8217;s value was the hardest to nail down. He was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft and a highly touted prospect in the years that followed, but the first seven years of his major league career &#8212; across three organizations &#8212; were a complete nightmare. He hit .223/.308/.392 over nearly <em>three thousand </em>plate appearances, and entering 2017, most Blue Jays fans were hoping the front office could find a way to bury him for as little money as possible. Yet incredibly here on July 23rd, he&#8217;s sporting a .302/.377/.598 slash line and is tied for fourth in all of baseball with 27 home runs.</p>
<p>Better than most others, Blue Jays fans have seen something like this before. Jose Bautista transformed himself from a league average bat to an elite slugger, and while most were skeptical of that production lasting in the long run, he&#8217;s proved us and everybody else but Alex Anthopoulos wrong. On the flip side, we also saw Michael Saunders hit .298/.372/.551 in the first half just last season, followed by a .178/.282/.357 second half, a .205/.257/.360 line with the Phillies in 2017, and his eventual release once they grew tired of him.</p>
<p>Thankfully, that much-maligned contract extension he received last summer gives the Blue Jays—and other teams—extra time to view Smoak with a dubious but intrigued eye without having to pre-emptively commit serious coin in support of this breakout. He&#8217;s under control for 2018 at a modest salary of $4.1 million, with a club option for 2019 that starts at $6.0 million and contains playing time incentives that could push it to $8.0 million. Smoak is the eighth most valuable player in the Blue Jays organization as of this summer, but not unlike the two men behind him, could shoot up the list if he can continue to prove that the last four months are more relevant than the previous seven years. If the Athletics move Yonder Alonso in the coming days, that would set the absolute floor for a Justin Smoak trade if the Blue Jays were to push him to market with the sustainability questions still lurking.</p>
<p><strong>#7: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107491">SS Bo Bichette</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/7-Bichette.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12584" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/7-Bichette.png" alt="#7 Bichette" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jay with the seventh most trade value is the first of two prospects to make the list, shortstop Bo Bichette. Bichette has taken the prospect world by storm this season, hitting nearly .400 with Single-A Lansing as a 19-year old, and ascending from the back end of the organization&#8217;s top ten to inside the top fifty in all of baseball (#29 on the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224">Baseball Prospectus</a> mid-season update; #44 on <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#YwyoFbAuhiRBP8uX.97">Baseball America&#8217;s</a> list).</p>
<p>Bichette is an exceptionally interesting prospect, as his ranking on both of those lists—and this one as well—is an attempt to find the balance between his immense upside and the legitimate concerns about how his swing will hold up against more advanced pitching. Some evaluators see him as a 6/6 bat and power guy, which at an up-the-middle position is an unbelievably valuable piece for any organization. There are others, however,  who see his fielding necessitating a move to third base and his bat wrap causing issues when he reaches the upper minors. Still, there are plenty of teams who would gamble on the former, and it&#8217;s why despite being in just the Florida State League he could be the main—or only—trade chip used to acquire a legitimate big league talent.</p>
<p>Last summer the Cubs used Gleyber Torres (BP midseason #34) to land Aroldis Chapman, and Cleveland sent Clint Frazier (BP Midseason #26) to the Yankees to land Andrew Miller. More recently, Blake Rutherford (BA Midseason #36) was sent to the Chicago White Sox as the centerpiece for a package of David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier. Each of those three prospects falls in the neighbourhood of Bichette&#8217;s current ranking, and provides comparables for the type of return he could potentially net.</p>
<p><strong>#6: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46084">LHP J.A. Happ</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/6-Happ.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12585" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/6-Happ.png" alt="#6 Happ" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>I went back-and-forth between Bichette and Happ on who should be six and who should be seven, and in reality, it probably is more of a 6A and 6B situation. Just last summer a pair of left handed starters with similar production and contract status were moved, with the Padres landing Anderson Espinosa for Drew Pomeranz and the Tampa Bay Rays receiving Lucius Fox (and Matt Duffy) for Matt Moore. Those returns aren&#8217;t dissimilar to the value most are placing on Bo Bichette today.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ will be 35-years old next season, but he&#8217;s yet to show any signs of age catching up to him. His average fastball velocity has remained steady at around 92 miles per hour for the last four seasons, and he ranks in the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=L&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2017&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=velo&amp;lim=200">upper third among left handed starters</a> by that metric. One potential drain on Happ&#8217;s value is that he&#8217;s only under contract for one more year after 2017, and while it&#8217;s certainly below market value given his performance the last three years, the 13 million he&#8217;s owed isn&#8217;t nothing to a team like Milwaukee or Pittsburgh trying to make a push.</p>
<p>Starting pitching is always in demand, but the type of that demand varies greatly between the summer and winter. Almost every team is looking to bolster their rotation in the offseason, but the market takes a bit of a shift at the trade deadline. The bubble teams may be salivating over someone like J.A. Happ, but the division leaders with plenty of heft at the front end of their rotation might be hesitant to give up a ton of value for someone who would be their fourth starter and might only make one start in the postseason. The Washington Nationals, for example, could see the Blue Jays lefty as a perfect plug for the fifth spot in their rotation over the next two months, but might barely use him come October behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/" title="The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 1 – 5)" target="_blank">Click here for the rest of the list</a> as we run from number five down to the most valuable player in the Blue Jays organization.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Need to Consider a Future Without Devon Travis</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/05/the-blue-jays-need-to-consider-a-future-without-devon-travis/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Jul 2017 10:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12072</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Devon Travis is a perfect player for the Blue Jays. He&#8217;s young enough to lock into his position for several years, on a team that&#8217;s generally long in the tooth. In addition to being young, he&#8217;s also very good. He&#8217;s a finished product as a player, someone they don&#8217;t need to wait on to develop, not [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Devon Travis is a perfect player for the Blue Jays. He&#8217;s young enough to lock into his position for several years, on a team that&#8217;s generally long in the tooth. In addition to being young, he&#8217;s also very good. He&#8217;s a finished product as a player, someone they don&#8217;t need to wait on to develop, not a few years away like many of their offensive prospects. He&#8217;s not someone who relies heavily on speed or athleticism, which is another point in his favor long-term.</p>
<p>Devon Travis is also a problem for the Blue Jays. His youth is offset by the fact that he&#8217;s gotten hurt a lot. He&#8217;s played 216 out of a possible 427 regular and post-season games in his young career. A contending team has had to replace his production an awful lot (the team&#8217;s failure to backfill with competent depth is another issue). To put this on Travis may not be fair, but fairness is rarely a good measurable for a baseball team. Going forward, the Jays need to determine if Travis is a piece they can build around, and the injuries need to play into that calculation.</p>
<p>As we mentioned, Travis has few flaws as a player. While he&#8217;s not an all-star, he&#8217;s shone even in a star studded lineup. He has a career .793 OPS, and is good enough defensively that they don&#8217;t need to spot him in the late innings. While not exceptional in any one area, he ranges for solid to very good across the board. He hits for average, has some power, and doesn&#8217;t strike out a lot, nice attributes for a team with a lot of older power-hitting types. His strengths offset their weaknesses. And his lack of weaknesses is itself a strength.</p>
<p>But the injuries have been a continual problem for the Blue Jays, so it&#8217;s easy to see why they might look at what they can get for him. We don&#8217;t have the information the Blue Jays do, so we can&#8217;t assume the injuries are systemic, or flukes. But regardless of whether or not they&#8217;re indicative of some flaw in Travis, they have happened, and have forced the Jays to improvise three times in three seasons to fill his position over a longer term. Hot stretches from backups Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney have been mostly mirages from players who are, well, backups. Those guys are fine if they&#8217;re playing once a week. As part of a platoon, they get exposed very quickly. As a result, it&#8217;s getting to the point where you have to make a decision one way or the other. You either trade Devon Travis or accept that he&#8217;ll be an oft-injured star and hedge your bets with a very good backup middle infielder.</p>
<p>Moving him creates another hole to fill on a team that&#8217;s going to have other questions already. His being young AND great is uniquely valuable to this team, more so than most others in the league. What would they get for someone who has a reputation as fragile? Who else helps bridge the gap offensively to the next great Blue Jays team? Teams looking to acquire him would likely try to get him at a discount, banking on the injuries being flukes, attempting to get the Jays to sell low on a solid piece. The front office needs to get good value if they move him, and probably wouldn&#8217;t sell after another long-term injury.</p>
<p>An argument for keeping Travis works no matter what approach the Jays take in the off-season. Let&#8217;s first assume the Jays retool, keeping most of the current veteran core, and gearing up for another run. They have two outfield spots to fill (assuming Bautista isn&#8217;t brought back), and need better production from the second base position. So maybe they sign someone. As of yet, the <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/213630356/grading-the-2017-2018-mlb-free-agent-class/">free-agent class at 2B</a> has slim pickings. You&#8217;re looking at older guys, like Neil Walker or Danny Espinosa, or whatever Brandon Phillips has left. They could have Brett Lawrie on the team now, and haven&#8217;t even with the yawning offensive chasm at second base, which speaks volumes. It&#8217;s hard to imagine any of those guys being better than Travis is now. So you look to trade Travis for a second baseman, or take from somewhere else to improve the position. It&#8217;s hard to see the math making sense on that.</p>
<p>The other side of the coin has the Jays blowing it up: trading whatever they can get value for, restocking the minor league system, maybe timing things up so the team is good again once Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ready to destroy some baseballs at the Rogers Centre. Travis&#8217; youth works for him here, as he&#8217;s someone who could help bridge the gap from Bautista to Bichette. He still has several good years in front of him, and the Jays still need to run out a major league squad even in a full rebuild. There&#8217;s the chance that they try and keep Travis until the next guys make it, and that he&#8217;s still a contributor at that point. With his injuries depressing his trade value, it again makes more sense for the Jays to bank on him being healthy than to try and use him as a bargaining chip.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s interesting trying to project Travis, as someone who was never really a huge prospect, and someone who&#8217;s yet to complete a full, healthy season in the majors. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=100193">BP</a> has Josh Harrison, Jason Kipnis and Neil Walker (soon to be a free agent, if you&#8217;ll recall) as comparable  players, which is something the Jays would undoubtedly take, given the pittance they acquired him for.  The health is the kicker, something those comparable players have had that Travis hasn&#8217;t. We do only have three seasons to work with, but the Jays may not have the patience to wait for a longer sample size.</p>
<p>Devon Travis is awesome. He&#8217;s young, he&#8217;s great, and stands out even in a star-studded lineup. But a future without Travis is something that the team should consider, given his injury history. Three years, and three times the Jays have had to work around not having him in the lineup for long stretches, which has been a real problem for a contending team. When he&#8217;s healthy, he&#8217;s great, but it&#8217;s that &#8220;when&#8221; which is the kicker, the one fly in the ointment. Travis&#8217; injuries are also an argument for keeping him, as a team with a lot of lineup questions probably doesn&#8217;t want to create another one by trading him for a lesser player. But if the Jays are continually looking for replacements for an injured Travis, they might decide that&#8217;s a question anyway. Travis is a fantastic player, but his injuries have made him a problem for the Jays, and a progressive front office would do well to consider all the possibilities.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>The Problem with the Blue Jays&#8217; Second Base &#8220;Solution&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 10:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of them have struggled offensively. With Devon Travis looking like he will be out for the remainder of the season after knee surgery, the bulk of playing time has gone to the likes of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney, two players who are less inspiring with the bat than Sam Dyson is on the mound against Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Obviously, the Blue Jays cannot continue to run those players out onto the field everyday and expect to receive production. John Gibbons has told the media that they will continue to shuffle them into and out of the lineup until one of them gets hot and takes control of the position full time. While Gibbons falling prey to the notion that a batter who is hot will continue to be hot is a concern, the larger concern is that he is actually correct that at the moment, that scenario is the Blue Jays&#8217; best option.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s June 19th, and with another six weeks before the MLB Trade Deadline, teams are not willing to make big deals because so much can change in the standings before July 31st. Before Sunday&#8217;s games started, just five games separated last place in the American League and a playoff spot. Giving up on the season at this point for a club that is that close to a playoff spot is not a good look.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays are looking for trade partners to fix their second base situation, it just isn&#8217;t possible at the moment. A club source said that they are trying to focus on buying players to help fill the holes in left field, second base, and in the bullpen, but instead are getting calls on Roberto Osuna (the Nationals keep trying) and Josh Donaldson (the Cardinals are one of those teams). The Blue Jays had internal discussions about New York Mets second baseman Neil Walker according to the same source, but now that he has been placed on the disabled list with a torn left hamstring, those conversations are moot until at least the All-Star Break. All of these trade discussions are in their preliminary stages, as most deals won&#8217;t be consummated until the end of July, so that really leaves the Blue Jays with only one other option to Barney and Goins, and that is in the form of Jason Leblebijian.</p>
<p>The case to call up Leblebijian from the Buffalo Bisons has been made across the internet for weeks, even by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/10/jason-leblebijian-is-the-answer-to-the-blue-jays-middle-infield-problem/" target="_blank">our own Elie Waitzer</a>. The argument goes that Barney and Goins have been so bad in 2017, that Leblebijian, who is batting .306/.375/.500, has to be able to be better than them if given the opportunity at the big league level. Elie even compared Leblebijian&#8217;s numbers to Dansby Swanson&#8217;s to strengthen his case, and came away with a strong argument that Leblebijian would in fact be an upgrade over Goins and Barney. However, the flaw in this argument, and all the other ones that support calling Leblebijian up from the minors to be given the starting job, is that the Blue Jays are aware of the talent possessed by all three players. I&#8217;d even go as far as suggesting that they are more aware of Leblebijian&#8217;s ability, along with Goins&#8217; and Barney&#8217;s, than we as fans are.</p>
<p>ZiPS rest of season projections project Darwin Barney for a .620 OPS for the rest of the season, and Ryan Goins for a .595 OPS. Although those numbers are astonishingly terrible, the Blue Jays and their talent evaluators don&#8217;t seem to believe Leblebijian would be able to top them at the big league level. The obvious move for months now has been to call up Leblebijian and give him playing time at second base. Clearly, the Blue Jays would have made that move already if they believed it to be the right one. However, even from only viewing his stats, there are reasons to be skeptical of Leblebijian&#8217;s AAA success &#8211; his .363 BABIP comes to mind as the most glaring one. Combine that with scouts who see Leblebijian often, it starts to make a lot more sense as to why he is still in Buffalo and not a couple of hours north at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>In 2013, the Buffalo Bisons had an infielder named Jim Negrych. From April until the end of June, Negrych was tearing the cover off of the ball, batting .332/.398/.475. Throughout those three months, sections of fans were clamouring for him to be called up to replace the messy combination of Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis. The Blue Jays did not make a move, and Negrych, who at the time was 28-years-old and never played in the big leagues, ended the season by hitting .203/.295/.225 from July through September. I&#8217;m not saying the 26-year-old Jason Leblebijian is Jim Negrych, but there were reasons why the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t call Negrych up then, and there are reasons why the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t calling up Leblebijian now.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to watch Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney play everyday and continue to look like they are completely overmatched. However, there truly is no better option at this point, so we just have to sit and wait until the Blue Jays are able to upgrade next month, which, if they are still in the race, seems almost guaranteed to happen. Until then, when you see the second baseman coming up to bat, avert your eyes and take your mind to a happy place.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Athletics</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/05/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-athletics/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jun 2017 15:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yonder Alonso]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11439</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk The Year of the First Basemen The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk</span></i></p>
<h3><b>The Year of the First Basemen</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds in 2011. He was so well-regarded that San Diego traded away another highly touted prospect that you may have heard of: Anthony Rizzo.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The potential of Alonso never seemed to translate to the major leagues, however. Over the previous three seasons, Alonso has averaged a slash line of .259/.323/.379 with a career high of nine home runs that was set in his first full season in 2012. However, in 46 games in 2017, he has 16 home runs and a stash line of .297/.395/.685. Alonso also ranks fif</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> in major league baseball with a wRC+ 188 ahead of Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Exploring zone charts from last season and 2017 show a significant increase in exit velocity. He has also been successful hitting pitches away and inside, making Alonso a challenging out for opposing pitchers (Charts below &#8211; 2016 on top, 2017 on the bottom).  </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png"><img class=" wp-image-11440 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-06-05 at 12.55.40 AM" width="475" height="550" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Not only has his ability to drive pitches, as evidenced by the grids above, but Alonso has also improved his patience at the plate. This is indicated by his increase in walk rate to 13.7 %. So why the change in performance? </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/06/01/yonder-alonso-athletics-swing-adjustments-manny-machado-brother-in-law/102384696/"><span style="font-weight: 400"> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> how Alonso reached out to many players in the league, including Carlos Betlran and Albert Pujols, to discuss their hitting approach. He used the information to help overhaul his swing in the offseason.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He has become a threatening bat in the middle of the order for the Athletics. The Blue Jays will need to be cautious pitching to him. One positive for Toronto is that they will be starting two left-handed pitchers in this series, JA Happ and Francisco Liriano. Alonso has struggled against southpaws in limited at bats this season. Toronto will hope to continue that trend starting Monday.</span></p>
<h3>Joe Random</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Blue Jays are leading a close game in the late innings, you can expect to see John Gibbons turn to Joe Smith at some point. The sidearm throwing righty has been a huge piece of a Toronto bullpen that has performed well of late. The unit posted a K/9 of 11.10 in May, second league-wide only to the Astros 11.47 mark. Smith led the way in the month, striking out 13.5 per 9 and, more importantly, taking over the role as set-up man as it begins to look like the fire in the Grilli is extinguished.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Smith has never been a big strikeout guy in the past. In fact, the only time he has averaged more than a strikeout an inning was in 2007 when he was a rookie with the New York Mets. Part of the reason that Smith is seeing so much success this year is that he’s starting to lay off his sinker a little and lean on his fourseam fastball more, often going to it with two strikes against left handed hitters. Both the fourseam and his slider are generating a ton of swings and misses. According to Brooks Baseball, hitters are whiffing on 17.92% of fourseam fastballs Smith throws – the highest whiff rate he’s ever had on his “heater” – and 16.8% of sliders, up from 10.53 in ’15 and 10.98 last season. As a result, Smith is racking up the Ks. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">His name is boring and I admittedly forgot it at least ten times during April, but Joe Smith’s work out of the bullpen has been heroic. Thankfully now, there’s a bridge to Osuna in the nin</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> and not two pieces of rope and a few wooden planks like we saw when Jason Grilli got high leverage innings earlier in the year.</span></p>
<h3><b>Devon Travis’ Left Wrist and Jason Leblebijian</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Since coming over to the Blue Jays before the 2015 season, Devon Travis has had nothing but success on the field but plenty of problems staying on it consistently. Another saga of the Travis Injury Chronicles (available for pre-order now!) may have been opened on Sunday against New York when he was hit by a pitch on his left wrist in the seventh inning by flamethrowing righty Luis Severino. Although x-rays came back negative, that just means nothing is broken inside the body. However, it does <em>not</em> mean Travis has full control and range of his left hand via his wrist. As a player with notorious health issues, Travis may end up missing a few days </span><a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/234365112/blue-jays-devon-travis-injures-hand-vs-yanks/"><span style="font-weight: 400">given the way</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> he was talking after the game on Sunday, and could even find himself on the 10-day DL if this persists.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That brings us to Jason Leblebijian, the 26-year-old with the hard-to-pronounce last name who seems to have suddenly figured out the trick to having success as a hitter; the Illinois-native is slashing a cool .308/.380/.578 with the AAA Buffalo Bisons. Leblebijian is a utility infielder and would be the perfect candidate to replace Travis should he need to go on the DL. Even if Ryan Goins were to fill in for Travis in the starting lineup, Leblebijian offers versatility that could see him give off-days to the recently returned left side of the Blue Jays infield, a strategy that could reasonably keep Tulowitzki and Donaldson healthier for a longer period of time, or step through the revolving door in left field. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays have played so well since the beginning of May that their odds of making the playoffs have crept back up to close to forty percent. Losing Travis, who has been one of their hottest hitters during this stretch, could be very detrimental to them. If they want to mitigate the impact of that, calling up Jason Leblebijian would be the right move. Enough with the large bullpens! </span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Which Blue Jays are Putting the Barrel on the Ball?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2017 10:51:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-Roster Invitees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11056</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in February I wrote an article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard here. Just [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in February I wrote an <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/barrels-of-fun…the-sweet-spot/">article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric</a> and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank">here.</a> Just the other day, Tom Tango tweeted out some visualizations of the different definitions of contact.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are the six categories of the Radial Launch Profile.<a href="https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu">https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu</a> <br />Top line is Teddies, bottom line is ?!?Alfredos <a href="https://t.co/sja9MQhhXJ">pic.twitter.com/sja9MQhhXJ</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tangotiger (@tangotiger) <a href="https://twitter.com/tangotiger/status/866271088413749251">May 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>These are some nice tight visual groupings. And some R scores very close to 1. This means that from 2015-2016, the same batters generally had similar batted ball profiles. That&#8217;s a good indication that it isn&#8217;t a statistic that is a product of luck (like hitting with RISP vs. bases empty). Players who know how to barrel the ball one year tend not to forget how to do it the next. But can you change your batted ball profile if you know what you want to do differently? Let&#8217;s explore.</p>
<p>When we look at the 2016, we can see some winners and losers based on Barrels per Batter Ball Event (Brls_DIV_BBE).</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11060" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png" alt="barrels jays 2016" width="737" height="462" /></a></p>
<p>Who might be interesting to look at? Well, I highlighted them for us. Especially since we want to see what&#8217;s happened to their numbers this season. This is the 2017 chart.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11059" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png" alt="barrels jays 2017" width="773" height="464" /></a></p>
<p>Ah, yes. I&#8217;ve left Ceciliani and Stroman on the chart. That&#8217;s really to demonstrate how intuitive &#8220;Barrels&#8221; are. Both of them have a home run and a double in very limited PA and, as a result, have unsustainable numbers in the barrels categories. Instead, let&#8217;s look at a few of the players that are more worth highlighting.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak&#8217;s Made Real Changes</h4>
<p>Smoak&#8217;s always been at the top of the ranking when considering batted ball events, but fell off significantly in Brls/PA in 2016 because he struck out 32.6% of the time. He simply did not make enough contact to do damage in a high percentage of his plate appearances. The 2017 version of Justin Smoak is more disciplined, and, back in the spring, he mentioned making a conscious decision to <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/03/12/blue-jays-justin-smoak-to-ditch-all-or-nothing-approach">not try to hit a home run every time</a> he got to the plate.</p>
<p>As a result, he&#8217;s jumped from barreling the ball in 6.5% of his plate appearances to 10.5%, which tops everyone on the Jays who plays regularly. This follows along with his strikeout rate, which dropped from 32% to 19%. Another way to measure this change in approach is with contact rate in the zone. According to FanGraphs, his zone contact rate jumped from 82% last year to 94% this year. Not swinging like everything needs to clear the fence has paid huge dividends for Smoak.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista Might be Worth Worrying About</h4>
<p>Bautista was once one of the great power hitting threats in all of baseball. We know that these kinds of hitter have a barrel per batted event percentage of between 18 and 25 percent, and a barrel per plate appearance percentage of between 9 and 11 percent. When Bautista makes contact, he does so with authority, showing up with a high rank in average flyball distance. He also has one of the better peak and average exit velocities on the team. What it doesn&#8217;t quite translate into, however, is barrels. Alex Avila, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano can barrel the ball over 20% of the time. Jose can only make it happen 9% of the time, which is Jean Segura and Kyle Seager territory. At this point in his career, Jose is still able to get on base, but not do the kind of damage he once did. You could certainly keep him up in the lineup, but it&#8217;s possible that the cleanup spot isn&#8217;t where he&#8217;s meant to be anymore.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Kevin Pillar&#8217;s Making Good on His Promise</h4>
<p>Much has been made of Pillar&#8217;s very public declaration to change his approach at the plate. In 2016, he barreled up the ball about as often as Ryan Goins, which is to say, not often at all. In 2017, he&#8217;s taken a great leap forward, going from barreling the ball in 2.7% of his batted balls to 6.7%, and from barreling the ball in 1.9% of plate appearances to 5.3%. Kevin Pillar now hits the ball with authority, even slightly more often than Bautista does over all his plate appearances. This is very strong evidence that he has been able to make a meaningful change in his approach. Remember, Barrels are about process, not results. In Pillar&#8217;s case the results have certainly followed. His tAV has jumped from .232 to .302 with the new approach, his walks are up significantly, and his strikeouts are down. Pillar wanted to confine his swings to pitches that were really hittable, and every measure we have has shown him to be successful in that regard.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Steve Pearce and Devon Travis&#8217; Numbers Are Diverging</h4>
<p>I grouped Steve Pearce and Devon Travis together for a reason. In 2016, in a platoon role, Pearce was the far superior power hitter, and Travis looked like a middle infielder with little to no pop in his bat. In 2017, Travis got of to a rough start, but he&#8217;s been tearing the cover off the ball recently. Meanwhile, Pearce got incosistent playing time and then got hurt. Their Statcast profiles, however, come out incredibly similar in 2017. They max velocity, average distance, barrels per batted event, and barrels per plate appearance are all within a digit or two of one another. It&#8217;s no surprise Pearce&#8217;s tAV sits at .215 and Travis&#8217; sits at .224. Again, the process predicts the results—both players have been worth -0.2 WARP. We should watch and see if their fortunes diverge once Pearce returns from injury.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The Blue Jays Aren&#8217;t Barrelling</h4>
<p>Looking at the chart as a whole, one other thing becomes clear. The Blue Jays are not, as a group, barrelling up the ball nearly as much as they did in 2016. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 8.8% and 4.8% were buried in the middle of the list last year, but now his 9.0% and 5.2% are, essentially, fourth on the team. The lineup simply isn&#8217;t made up of guys who hit a lot of homers or doubles into the gap. That isn&#8217;t the only way to score runs, of course, since the 2017 team has scored 186 runs after 45 games, and the 2016 team has scored only 183. Maybe some of John Gibbons&#8217; bunt and squeeze tactics are a result of him not seeing anyone who can hit the ball with authority and reacting accordingly.</p>
<p>Either way, there are things that we can learn from barrelled balls. First off, we can see that, over and over again, the nature of the contact with the ball is consistent with the quality of the result. There is no way to defend against a barrelled ball, and if you&#8217;re aware of a way to nudge the launch angle and exit velocity into a certain zone as a hitter, you should absolutely do that. The other lesson, from Smoak and Pillar, is that a change in approach can help a hitter with a hole in his game. Smoak didn&#8217;t need to make harder or better contact, he needed to make it more often. Pillar didn&#8217;t need to make more contact overall, he needed to make it in the strike zone. Teams can use this type of data (obviously with more sophistication) to target players where small changes might offer big payoffs. The small sliver of Statcast data that the public has access to offers an opportunity to change what skills are valued in the game, imagine what teams will be doing with the whole database at their fingertips.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:</em> <em>Nick Turchiaro</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Devon Travis is Primed to Turn His Season Around</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/27/devon-travis-is-primed-to-turn-his-season-around/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/27/devon-travis-is-primed-to-turn-his-season-around/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Apr 2017 10:56:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10412</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard Buck say this line with Devon Travis at the plate: &#8220;He missed a big chunk of Spring Training, so he&#8217;s still working on getting his timing right.&#8221; Any seasoned baseball fan will tell you that Spring Training stats don&#8217;t matter, but in a game of inches, those repetitions are crucial for [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard Buck say this line with Devon Travis at the plate: &#8220;He missed a big chunk of Spring Training, so he&#8217;s still working on getting his timing right.&#8221;</p>
<p>Any seasoned baseball fan will tell you that Spring Training stats don&#8217;t matter, but in a game of inches, those repetitions are crucial for a hitter to get back into his rhythm. In 2016, a healthy Devon Travis got 64 Spring Training at-bats. This year he got just 13.</p>
<p>To make things a bit trickier, while Travis has been calibrating his swing, he&#8217;s had to simultaneously adjust to another challenge. Through 18 games, he&#8217;s seen almost 10% more breaking balls than last season. This trend is not isolated to Travis, and may have something to do with a certain series against a certain baseball team from Cleveland. We&#8217;re not even a full month into the season, so this will regress a bit, but Toronto&#8217;s hitters are being ambushed with breaking balls.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/bb.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-10452" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/bb-1024x662.png" alt="bb" width="500" height="323" /></a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not the whole story, but the breaking ball surge has been a huge factor in the Jays&#8217; anemic offence thus far. Against Travis, the plan of attack has been to pound him low and away with sliders to try to induce a whiff or some weak contact. Judging by his .179/.190/.370 slash, this strategy has been incredibly effective. But if we dig into his peripherals a bit, there are several reasons to expect that it won&#8217;t be effective for much longer.</p>
<p>The first, and perhaps greatest cause for optimism, is that his raw metrics have remained at the same level as last season. His exit velocity has actually gone up a tick, and he&#8217;s built on the launch angle gains detailed <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/">here</a>. We can wrap this up nicely using <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba">xwOBA</a>, a predictive statistic formulated using exit velocity and launch data from Statcast. According to Baseball Savant, Travis&#8217; wOBA should be <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2017&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2017&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=16,d&amp;page=3_30">on par</a> with Kris Bryant and A.J. Pollock right now. That&#8217;s a massive disparity, which should bring about some significant positive regression.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="wp-image-10423 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/wOBA-underperformers.png" alt="wOBA underperformers" width="340" height="187" /></p>
<p>The second reason is the unseemly .143 BABIP. Last season&#8217;s .357 BABIP may have been due for a bit of regression, but Travis&#8217; mature all-fields approach has always produced high averages. It is a little troubling that he hasn&#8217;t been spraying the ball the other way, but hopefully that&#8217;s a skill that will come around as he gets his timing right. Including his minor league tenure, his career BABIP is .335. The projections have him pegged around .307. He&#8217;ll finish the season somewhere in between those marks.</p>
<p>One last thing to monitor is that Travis is being unprecedentedly selective. His current O-Swing% is around six points below his career average. Being more selective is a great sign if you&#8217;re Kevin Pillar, but it could also be a sign that Travis isn&#8217;t quite comfortable at the dish yet. Another word for selective is timid. Being aggressive is an effective approach for Travis, and a rising swing percentage over the next few weeks will be a good indicator to watch.</p>
<p>If you add up his Spring Training and regular season at-bats, Travis is now at 91 PAs, which effectively brings him even with all the guys who enjoyed a healthy and full Spring Training. There&#8217;ll be no more blaming his struggles on missing time from here on out, but with that juicy xwOBA there won&#8217;t be a need to. In some cases of early season struggles, there&#8217;s something to look for that&#8217;ll be predictive of a poor season to come. In Travis&#8217; case, it&#8217;s predictive of the exact opposite. Assuming he doesn&#8217;t take too many more trips to the disabled list, Devon will be better and he&#8217;s already starting that ascension.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Would it Cost To Have Ryan Goins&#8217; Glove on the Roster?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Mar 2017 11:01:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and some players will be left without anywhere to sit.</p>
<p>Up until a week or so ago, Ryan Goins looked like he was madly circling the chair with the &#8220;Infield Bench&#8221; sign hung off the back. He could do this because Devon Travis was restricted to stretching and BP, still nursing a bone bruise from offseason knee surgery. Now that Travis is able to get up and participate in this metaphorical party game, Goins is much further from a chair being his on opening day, as Darwin Barney has a pretty solid claim to it. Of course, Goins is now out of options after parts of four seasons with the big club, and that means he will hit the waiver wire before he can grab a seat in Buffalo. All this has stirred up the nostalgia of the Ryan Goins fans out there in Jays nation.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure where this nostalgia comes from, since his most successful time in the big leagues has been a month where he practically stopped swinging the bat, (for reference I speak of August 2015- .314/.442/.443 with 22hits, 16K/16BB), and we haven&#8217;t seen anything like it since. His .228 OBP in 2016 doesn&#8217;t make me nostalgic, it makes me nauseous. Maybe nostalgia stems from the fact that he&#8217;s a career Blue Jay, which counts for something in some people&#8217;s minds. Those nice folks will also often point to Ryan Goins glove as the thing you have to love and remember and love about him.</p>
<p>And that got me to thinking&#8230;. what can we learn about Ryan Goins glove before he is cast out into the swells of the waiver wire ocean? There are a lot of fielding metrics out there, and I&#8217;ve learned that they are all mystifying and nearly useless in small samples. Luckily, I&#8217;m not overly concerned here with how much &#8216;value&#8217; in terms of &#8216;wins&#8217; Ryan Goins or Darwin Barney is providing here. The question I&#8217;m curious about is whether there are enough opportunities in a season for there to be a love affair with Goins defense.</p>
<p>Of course, its not just a glove, it&#8217;s the arms, torso and legs attached to it that a great fielder make. Let us compare the record of the three bodies that might occupy second base for the Jays in 2017 and see how often they might make difference that we will remember.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m using Inside Edge data from <a href="http://fangraphs.com" target="_blank">FanGraphs</a>. It uses info from their scouts to divide plays into buckets ranging from impossible &#8211; (0% of times the play is completed when the ball is hit in similar circumstances) to Routine (90-100% of times the play is made). If a player makes the 40-60% catergory play around 50% of the time, he&#8217;s been average. If he makes it 80% of the time, he&#8217;s been extremely effective. In the Inside edge data, we get a percentage and, also very impotantly, a raw count of plays made. This is exactly what I want to know. Sure, anyone can make an impossible play, but if it really is just once in a whole season, is it worth waiting around for?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with Devon Travis, the presumptive starter at second base. I&#8217;m going to use career numbers, just to keep this simple, unless otherwise noted. Travis has 1369.2 innings at second, which is like a very busy full time season&#8217;s worth of plays (1458 innings available in a season with only 9 inning games). He makes 98.3% of the Routine plays, 67% in the Likely (60-90) bucket, 53.3% in the Even (40-60) bucket, 25% in the Unlikely (10-40) bucket and has never made a Remote or Impossible play. If you look at those numbers, Travis has been an almost prototypically average fielder. He&#8217;s in the middle of all the ranges for all the more common types of play, and he&#8217;s never pulled of a miracle in the field.</p>
<p>Now we look at Darwin Barney, who has three full seasons (4601 innings) of work at second, and was able to stick at second base in the NL based on the quality of his defense. He&#8217;s at 98.9% routine, 85.9% Likely, 61% Even, 33% Unlikely, 7.3% Remote, and has also never done the Impossible. The numbers bear out Barney&#8217;s reputation. He is much higher in the bracket (except in the Routine category) than Travis, and he even breaks out of the range on &#8220;Even&#8221; plays (by 1%). He&#8217;s much more adept at getting those plays made when the difficulty goes up. It&#8217;s important though, to realize that even though Darwin has made 7.33% of the Remote plays he&#8217;s faced in his career, it might not have made much impact on the team&#8217;s season. That 7.33% represents three total plays in the bucket, or about one made per season.</p>
<p>Which leads us to Ryan Goins, and the impact of his glove on the defense. He&#8217;s logged 1486.1 innings at second base, a shade more than a full season, and his percentages, from Likely on down, are 97.9%, 87.5%, 85%, 28.6%, 13% and, of course, 0%. Goins is well ahead of Barney in Even and Remote quality plays made, but otherwise lines up about the same in the other categories. Again, the 13% of Remote plays made represents exactly three of these very difficult plays completed over his whole career. I know you probably remember two of them, or even all three. What happens though, if we put Ryan Goins into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes for a whole season.</p>
<p>Of course, this is a deeply flawed exercise. Humour me. We&#8217;re going to give Ryan Goins credit for his rate of success, but on all the opportunities Devon Travis has had.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9780" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png" alt="travis and goins chart" width="880" height="112" /></a></p>
<p>So, in our hypothetical full season, Ryan Goins could make an extra dozen outs in the field for the Blue Jays. Which sounds like the Jays are giving up something real, maybe 12 out of 500 outs. Of course, we can never be sure it isn&#8217;t going to be more or less than that. When we look at 12 opportunities in a year, that&#8217;s not very many at all. What really brings it into focus though, is what happens when you give a bat to the two men above. If the ability to make outs in the field is at issue, then the ability to avoid making them at the plate should also be considered, for fairness.</p>
<p>Baseball reference has a handy &#8220;Per 162 games&#8221; stat line. Travis sports a .301/.342/.469 line for his career, and that translates into 206 times on base in a full season of play. Ryan Goins .224/.270/.325 pales in comparison, it means 131 times on base in the same number of games. Ryan Goins gain of 12 plays on defense come at a cost of 75 on offense.</p>
<p>But, you say, Goins isn&#8217;t competing with Travis, he&#8217;s competing with Barney! Yes. He is doing that. And I didn&#8217;t want to go there, but you clearly brought that up. This next part is your fault. I&#8217;m going to give Darwin Barney a chance to step into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes. I do hope he doesn&#8217;t get any blisters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9781" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png" alt="barney and goins chart" width="880" height="107" /></a></p>
<p>So, yeah, defensively, it doesn&#8217;t look like you could be sure one of these is a definitively better glove man. Which means that, in order to justify his presence on the roster, Goins would have to be a definitively better hitter than Darwin Barney. Barney&#8217;s career line is .249/.297/.343, and he averages 161 times on base every 162 games. He reaches 30 more times, on average, than Goins.</p>
<p>So, in conclusion, Ryan Goins can do this:<br />
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2cyDdeQ6aWQ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
and this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1245173583&amp;topic_id=73955164&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
But he can&#8217;t even manage enough of it to make an impact like this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=99640083&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
Yes, I know he&#8217;s always been in blue, but saying goodbye to Ryan Goins, if it comes to that, is a door closing while another one opens. Behind that door is a second baseman who can put himself of base five or six times for every opponent Goins can keep off the bases.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Fly Ball Revolution Has Arrived in Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Mar 2017 10:04:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like this. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2000-batting-leaders.shtml">this</a>. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a field day trying to explain it. They enlisted physicists and statisticians. They said that the balls might be <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/">juiced</a>. They blamed the historically bad Reds&#8217; bullpen. They thought maybe steroids were back.</p>
<p>But when nobody could find a satisfying stats-based explanation for the long ball lunacy, a few writers began to turn to philosophy. The explanation here isn&#8217;t as easy as hitters closing their eyes and meditating about glorious dingers. According to interviews with several players, any explanation behind the power surge starts with the general shift in the Majors from a line drive-based approach to a fly ball-heavy hitting philosophy. Leading that group of players are Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, Marlon Byrd, and Justin Turner.</p>
<p>This theory has two parts. The first is that it just makes more sense to go for fly balls. In 2016, batters hit <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2016&amp;month=18&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ss&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">.241 with a .715 slugging mark on fly balls</a> versus a .238 average and .258 slugging mark on ground balls. The second part is that when this approach turns someone like J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner into a superstar, other Major League hitters take notice and try to emulate it.</p>
<p>At Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan and Travis Sawchik have been compiling mostly anecdotal evidence for this theory that you can read about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/has-the-fly-ball-revolution-begun/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinez-debunks-conventional-wisdom-thinks-a-tipping-point-is-near/">here</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-hitters-are-getting-off-the-ground/">here</a>. I won&#8217;t go any deeper into the weeds, because what interests me in this is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s role at the vanguard of this fly ball revolution.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just say NO&#8230;. to ground balls. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash">#MLB</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/striveforexcellence?src=hash">#striveforexcellence</a> <a href="https://t.co/6YANrOZHQE">pic.twitter.com/6YANrOZHQE</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Josh Donaldson (@BringerOfRain20) <a href="https://twitter.com/BringerOfRain20/status/837061212705812488">March 1, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>There&#8217;s that tweet, and there&#8217;s this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyWNCrxVzPU">amazing video</a> on MLB Network. You could argue that Donaldson has been the highest profile proselytiser for the fly ball approach, which makes Toronto the perfect test case for this theory. If I was a struggling bat in the Jays lineup, I would take every piece of advice I could from Donaldson. Players on the same team talk, a lot. That&#8217;s why the Rays pitchers all throw the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-power-of-pitch-lineage/">same change up</a>.</p>
<p>Now, the Jays are one of only six teams that actually hit <em>fewer</em> home runs in 2016 than in 2015. So Toronto&#8217;s offence was explosive independent of whatever mystery juice may have crept into baseball last season, but let&#8217;s see if we can find any evidence of how Donaldson&#8217;s philosophy has shaped the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>The best place to start is at the root of this philosophy: average launch angles. Unfortunately, Statcast data only goes back to 2015, so we can&#8217;t compare the pre-Donaldson Jays to the current core, but even the past two years are revealing. For starters, the team&#8217;s average launch angle rose from 8.8° to 10.5°. Here are the batters who gained the most lift on average.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9573" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/launch-angle-gainers.png" alt="launch angle gainers" width="510" height="229" /></p>
<p>Donaldson practiced what he preached, adding 4.5° on average according to Baseball Savant. Travis and Martin had big jumps. Encarnacion had one of highest average launch angles in the league (top 20). And at the very top of the list is Smoak, who exemplifies the kind of struggling hitter who might try to seek advice from a successful hitter such as Donaldson. Seven degrees makes me want to bust out a protractor.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve identified Donaldson&#8217;s disciples, let&#8217;s see if those increased launch angles translated into more fly balls.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/fb-gainers1.png" alt="fb gainers" width="510" height="295" /></a></p>
<p>Again, Smoak and Travis saw big increases. Somehow, Tulowitzki managed to increase his fly ball percentage by 10% despite only raising his average launch angle by 2.2°. That massive jump in FB% pushed his home run total up from 17 to 24 and raised his ISO from .160 to .189, but Tulowitzki&#8217;s slugging percentage actually remained the same due to a corresponding drop-off in doubles. This could be a sign of Tulowitzki over-emphasizing fly balls at the expense of line drives to the gaps.</p>
<p>Of those six Jays, Tulowitzki was actually the only home run gainer on a rate basis. You might expect Donaldson and Encarnacion to take small steps back after beastly 2015 campaigns, but Smoak and Travis seemed like candidates for power surges according to their FB% and launch angle gains.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="  aligncenter wp-image-9622" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/hr-gainers1.png" alt="hr gainers" width="499" height="263" /></a></p>
<p>Again, we only have average launch angle data for the past two years, but for an entire team to jump from an average 8.8° to 10.5° seem significant to me. What&#8217;s more, the team&#8217;s hard hit rate jumped from 29.7% to 33.1% while the team&#8217;s HR/FB and average exit velocity remained essentially the same. That suggests that the Jays got a little unlucky with homers in 2016.</p>
<p>It&#8217;d be interesting to talk to Tulowitzki, Smoak and Travis to see if they&#8217;ve intentionally adopted Donaldson&#8217;s fly ball heavy approach. Looking at stats can only tell us so much. Still, if those three maintain their launch angle and fly ball gains from 2016, they could be primed for juicy home run totals this year.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 48: A Little Bird-Calling</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/15/artificial-turf-wars-ep-48-a-little-bird-calling/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/15/artificial-turf-wars-ep-48-a-little-bird-calling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Mar 2017 10:00:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Baseball Classic]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way. Episode 48 Jake English of Birds Eye View stops by to preview the Baltimore Orioles are part [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 48</strong></p>
<p>Jake English of Birds Eye View stops by to preview the Baltimore Orioles are part of the 2017 AL East preview series. He discusses the continual lack of strength/depth in the rotation, Chris Tillman&#8217;s injury, the slugging offense, and some fancy roster maneuvering by Dan Duquette. Greg and Josh also discuss the recent returns to &#8220;action&#8221; for Josh Donaldson and Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales&#8217; continued spring success, Canada&#8217;s abysmal showing in the World Baseball classic, Jose Bautista and Marcus Stroman&#8217;s STRONG showings, and some approach changes for Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak. They also give Do-Overs to the Blue Jays social media team and Peter Gammons.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/841675988291354626" target="_blank">Here&#8217;s the massive home run</a> from Shohei Otani that Josh mentions on the podcast. </p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/889/show_9889479_2017_03_15_03_36_35.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/889/show_9889479_2017_03_15_03_36_35.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
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<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
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