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	<title>Toronto &#187; David Price</title>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Rotation Might be Just as Good as Boston&#8217;s</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/the-blue-jays-rotation-might-be-just-as-good-as-bostons/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/the-blue-jays-rotation-might-be-just-as-good-as-bostons/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2016 19:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It sounds crazy. The Red Sox just traded for Chris Sale. Rick Porcello just won the Cy Young Award (even though he shouldn’t have). David Price could be their third starter. That rotation should scare every team in the American League. And yet, I’m here to say that it might not even be the best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It sounds crazy. The Red Sox just <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chris-sale.html" target="_blank">traded for Chris Sale</a>. Rick Porcello just won the Cy Young Award (even though he shouldn’t have). David Price could be their third starter. That rotation should scare every team in the American League. And yet, I’m here to say that it <em>might</em> not even be the best in the division.</p>
<p>The simple way would be to just stick Sale on the Red Sox from last year and see how things would turn out with the projected five starters based on their work in Toronto/Boston.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/pitchers.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8239" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/pitchers.png" alt="pitchers" width="704" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Hooray! The Blue Jays pitchers have the better ERA! It’s over!</p>
<p>Obviously you come here for better analysis than that, and some of those numbers are very cherry-picked (no bad Pittsburgh Liriano, no good San Diego Pomeranz), but it actually provides a decent starting point. The Jays pitchers DID outperform their Red Sox counterparts. It’s a matter of whether they can do it again.</p>
<p>The Jays pitchers may not have the sexy names, or the big time strikeout to walk ratios, but they possess traits that have actually made them really, really good at run prevention. While Boston does have a bunch of big time strikeout pitchers, some of their arms did show a few red flags that hurt their numbers and could carry over into 2017.</p>
<p>I’m going to break down each club’s expected rotations to look at how they project out for the upcoming season.</p>
<h2>Blue Jays</h2>
<p>It’s not hard to see the extreme upside in the Jays rotation. Four of the five starters have received Cy Young votes in the last few years (sorry Marcus!), and they led the league in ERA as a group just last year. They’re also replacing R.A. Dickey’s mediocre production with Liriano.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, on the surface, those numbers up top also scream for some potential regression. The only pitcher with an above league-average K/9 was Marco Estrada. Four of them had opposing BABIPs under .270. Those same four guys had DRAs well above their ERAs (You’re doing better here, Marcus!). However, there are reasons to believe each of those guys can continue to outpitch their peripherals.</p>
<h4>Marco Estrada</h4>
<p>When it comes to regressions candidates, the first person people always point to is the soon-to-be 33 year old Estrada. One would think that back to back seasons where he has stymied AL East foes with his fastball-changeup combo would convince people that he is for real, especially since the strikeouts came back. However, his league-low BABIP of .234 was 2.3 standard deviations away from the league mean among starters (.292) in 2016. That makes two years in a row that he has been extremely far from the norm in the category (.221 and 3.1 SDs in 2015). Typically, that screams “good luck” that won’t be repeated, or suggests that a team had otherworldly defence.</p>
<p>We can dismiss the latter effect right away. While the Jays do have one of the game’s best defenders in Kevin Pillar (21 DRS), his impact was almost completely negated by having two of the league’s worst everyday outfielders on his flank in Jose Bautista (-8 DRS) and Michael Saunders (-11 DRS). The Jays have good infielders, but Estrada doesn&#8217;t see much benefit with his 35 percent groundball rate.</p>
<p>As for the “luck” factor, as I broke down <a title="How Marco Estrada Dominated Baseball’s First Half" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/08/how-marco-estrada-dominated-baseballs-first-half/" target="_blank">here</a>, <a title="Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/" target="_blank">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">here</a>, Estrada’s unique “rise” on both his fourseam fastball and changeup led him to post a popup rate (16.2 percent) that was 3.7 standard deviations better than the MLB average. Those numbers are increases over his 2015 totals (14.5% and 3.1 SDs), but this actually makes sense with his increased movement.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8240" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart1.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>As his ball continues to fight gravity, his lazy flyballs increase which help him outpitch his peripheral stats. The fact that this skill can be easily identified suggests that it’s repeatable, and as such very little regression should be expected from Estrada. In fact, improved outfield defence could even improve the numbers for the “popup pitcher”.</p>
<h4>J.A. Happ</h4>
<p>Right after Estrada on the list of “he was just lucky” pitchers is 2016’s surprise Cy Young candidate:, J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>After bouncing around as a back of the rotation starter for years, Happ finally seemed to find himself after a 2015 deadline deal to Pittsburgh. Ray Searage worked with Happ to clean up his delivery, and he dominated for two months. He took things to another level in his return to Toronto, where he was able to post a career high in innings while posting a career-best (as a starter) 3.18 ERA.</p>
<p>Like Estrada, there is an identifiable reason for his success in outpitching his peripherals. Also like Estrada, Happ uses special fastball movement to generate favourable results.</p>
<p>Once again, you can <a title="How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball’s Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">read this in more depth here</a>, but J.A. Happ just happens to have a unique fastball. Or should I say set of fastballs. With a “rise” of 10.2” on his fourseamer and 5.2” on his sinker, J.A. Happ gets more separation between the two pitches than any other qualified starter (500+ of each pitch) in the game.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8241" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-6.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (6)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>This means that even if the hitter guessed fastball, the unpredictability of the movement still had him at a disadvantage. By combining the two offerings effectively, Happ gets grounders when he needed to (a career high 21 double play grounders), while also jumping the swing and miss rate on his fourseam by over nine percentage points from his previous average as a full-time starter.</p>
<p>This was his first season doing this, so it’s possible there could be some slight regression coming, but the unique nature of his arsenal should mitigate the overall effect. Like Estrada, improved corner OF defence could also help Happ&#8217;s overall numbers.</p>
<h4>Francisco Liriano</h4>
<p>Francisco Liriano has the widest range of outcomes. I could tell you he’s going to be the best starter on the team, or the worst, and I guarantee I’d get a large chunk of people who would agree with me either way.</p>
<p>Where there should be little disagreement is that Liriano is going to take a small step backwards from his time with the Jays at the end of the season. His 2.92 ERA and 2.9 BB/9 would be the best marks he has put up in since his early career in Minnesota when people viewed him as the next Johan Santana.</p>
<p>There’s also the fact that he was absolutely shelled last year in Pittsburgh. The interesting thing there is that the outliers were in the completely opposite direction. His control went in the complete opposite direction (5.5 BB/9). Now, that’s not exactly a crazy notion when it comes to the notoriously wild Liriano, but his walk rate over the previous three years had stabilized and was down to 3.8 per nine from his five plus years with the Twins and White Sox. The Jays bet on that being the real guy and hit in a big way.</p>
<p>It wasn’t just pure regression that the Jays were betting on though. Take a look at the following chart (Pittsburgh on top):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/liriano.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8242" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/liriano.png" alt="liriano" width="640" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>When Russell Martin was Liriano’s catcher with the Pirates, he made a point of having the power lefty use his changeup liberally. Over the last couple of years that has declined, before cratering in favour of the fastball last year. When Liriano came to Toronto, Martin made him start throwing it again and his command improved. It’ll be interesting to see if he can make that continue.</p>
<p>The safe money would be on Liriano pitching much more like the player he was from 2013-2015 (3.26 ERA, DRAs of 2.90, 3.56, and 3.22). That’s probably a 3.50-3.75 ERA guy in the AL East with this team’s infield defence and Liriano’s groundball rates (52% or higher the last 4 years).</p>
<h4>Marcus Stroman</h4>
<p>Marcus Stroman’s results were pretty bad. His 4.37 ERA was barely better than R.A. Dickey, he averaged over a hit allowed per inning, and his strikeout rate was only 7.3 per nine. However, like Liriano’s Pirates numbers, there are reasons to expect much better numbers from Stroman in 2017. His DRA alone (a team-best 3.43) suggests there was more.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman debuted a new sinker when he returned in 2015 that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-discovered-roy-halladays-sinker/" target="_blank">had people comparing him to Roy Halladay</a>.</p>
<p>Given the extreme movement on the pitch—<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=SI&amp;ds=vmov&amp;lim=500" target="_blank">it has the most sink in all of baseball among qualified starters</a>— Stroman started the season featuring it heavily. Three months in and the results weren&#8217;t good: his ERA was 5.33 and his K/9 was 6.3. The sinker had a ton of movement, but he threw it so often that players could sit on it. As a high contact offering, he was just getting killed with balls going through holes.</p>
<p>He forgot that what made him partricularly special was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps" target="_blank">his possession of many plus pitches</a>. It seems someone reminded him of this fact when the calendar turned to July.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8243" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Starting in July, Stroman started throwing his slider a lot more, and then started featuring even more of his offerings as the season went on. With hitters no longer able to just sit on the same pitch, everything in his arsenal played up. For the rest of the season, his strikeout rate was a very respectable 8.3. When combined with his still extreme groundball rate, Stroman posted an ERA of 3.42, which was much closer to what people expected out of the diminutive hurler.</p>
<p>Given his previous success and the change in repertoire, it seems likely that this is much closer to the real Marcus Stroman than the player we saw in the first half of 2016.</p>
<h4>Aaron Sanchez</h4>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is a bit easier to explain. The 24 year old finally had his shackles removed and all he did was lead the American League in ERA. His <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sanchez-excited-about-total-transformation-of-his-body/" target="_blank">added bulk</a> and improved mechanics helped him reach a career high in innings (192) and lower his walk rate down to a very manageable three per nine.</p>
<p>The skill was always there, as Sanchez&#8217;s power sinker had made numerous hitters look extremely stupid. However, while he had always dominated same-sided hitters, the issue was his ability to get lefthanders out. In 2015, lefties hit the Californian righty to the tune of .282/.390/.488. That’s pretty bad. He certainly turned that around though. In 2016, they hit .217/.306/.352. That’s good.</p>
<p>The sinker is a pitch with pretty heavy platoon splits. When he was a reliever, Sanchez almost threw the two seamers exclusively. In 2016, he started expanding his repertoire, and it really <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/06/sanchez-versus-lefties-has-been-an-unexpected-kind-of-story/" target="_blank">helped him against southpaws</a>.</p>
<p>The two biggest differences were his curveball and the development of his changeup, but he also showed an increased willingness to pitch inside with his fastball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Sanchez-20151.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8246" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Sanchez-20151.png" alt="Sanchez 2015" width="600" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>The fastballs in combined with the breaking balls away made for a pitcher who could really keep lefties at bay. With his continued destruction of righties, Sanchez became a true top of the rotation pitcher.</p>
<p>He does still rely on getting outs on the ground, which is somewhat susceptible to random variance. As such that 3.00 ERA should regress some. Though Sanchez is still an elite arm, and he should be able to go to 220 innings this year if he has to, which is a huge plus for Toronto.</p>
<h2>BOSTON</h2>
<h4>Chris Sale</h4>
<p>Chris Sale is awesome. He’s the best pitcher on either of these two teams. I don’t think I need to spend a ton of time on him, but there are a few interesting notes.</p>
<p>First, he’s moving to a better hitters park. While Comiskey (the name changes so often I’m just using this) has historically been a hitters park, it actually played as a pitchers park the last few years. Meanwhile Fenway is as good of a hitters park as exists in the American League.</p>
<p>Sale’s extreme bat-missing abilities and control certainly help mitigate this effect, but they don’t eliminate it completely. His results once hitters make contact should go up a little bit.</p>
<p>There was also some thought that he whould also be helped by simply getting away from Dioner Navarro. As Jeff Sullivan wrote over at Fangraphs, Sale’s catchers killed him last year, and game calling won&#8217;t get much better with Sandy Leon being the plate. As a flyball pitcher, though, he will get some boost from the excellent work done by Jackie Bradley Jr. in that large center and right field in Boston.</p>
<p>All that said, Chris Sale is really good and we should expect him to be basically what he has been the last few years.</p>
<h4>Rick Porcello</h4>
<p>The reigning AL Cy Young winner took a huge step forward in 2015. He put up career-bests in tossed innings (223), ERA (3.15), K/BB (league-leading 5.91), and strikeouts (189). It was an incredible season, and while he didn’t deserve the award he won, he was one of the league’s best starters.</p>
<p>There wasn’t much of a change in repertoire that led to his monster season, but there was a change in approach.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/porcello-2015.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8245" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/porcello-2015.png" alt="porcello 2015" width="599" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>In 2016, Porcello started working heavily up in the zone with his fourseam fastball. This helped him get more swings and misses on the pitch (career best 15.5%), and also throw more strikes. It also turned Porcello into something of a flyball pitcher.</p>
<p>This made some sense with the expansive RF in Fenway, and came with more infield popups (though only slightly more than average), while not having a huge effect on his home run rate (the HR/FB was about average).</p>
<p>He probably falls back a bit just simply due to the extreme BABIP luck and no clear reason for him to fall all the way to .269 from a career .307 (he should drop some due to more FBs), but he’s likely going to be something close to a 3.50 ERA guy in 2017.</p>
<h4>David Price</h4>
<p>Price is by far the most interesting member of the Red Sox rotation. Expected to be a true number one pitcher and lead Boston to the World Series, Price stumbled in 2016. His 3.99 ERA was a career-worst which also came with all-time high hit and HR/9 rates. His strikeout rate of 8.9 was also a three year low. The strikeouts were high in the awful first half, but they were lower in his better second half. In short, he wasn’t “David Price.”</p>
<p>While there is obviously expected to be <em>some</em> regression back to his career levels, there was one very big red flag associated with Mr. Price.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8247" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="883" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Price’s velocity fell to an all-time low of 93.75 mph; that’s bad. It wasn’t some blip either as he started down and finished there.</p>
<p>To compensate, Price threw more cutters and changeups than ever before. They’re both very good offerings from the big lefty, but the need to reinvent himself during a season where he underperformed is a very worrying sign for Red Sox fans.</p>
<p>There are some indicators that would normally project that some regression will occur, but even those come with red flags. His HR/FB rose from a career 9.6 percent to 13.5, and his BABIP from .290 to .310. Those should suggest he was somewhat unlucky. Unfortunately, he was also hit a lot harder.</p>
<p>His overall exit velocity rose from 87.7 to 88.3, but he got crushed on line drives. His exit velocity on line drives and fly balls rose 1.5 mph from 90.9 to 92.4 mph. That’s going to lead to more hits and to more home runs.</p>
<p>While David Price track record suggests he&#8217;ll still regress a bit back to normal, if he doesn’t get that fastball back, he’s not an ace anymore.</p>
<h4>Drew Pomeranz</h4>
<p>2016 was Drew Pomeranz’ first year as a full-time MLB starter and he didn’t disappoint. Pomeranz put up a 3.32 ERA with two teams, a career-best strikeout rate of 9.8 per nine, and even made his first All-Star team. Aside from simply making more starts, there was a very clear reason for Pomeranz’ increased success: his curveball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8248" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>His nine inches of drop on the curveball is 10th most among starters. Among starters who thew over 500 of them, he’s third. Over 550, first. He has a good curveball, and he likes to use it. Hitters miss on 31.7 percent of the swings they take at Pomeranz&#8217;s curveball. With San Diego, batters hit just .201 with a .262 slugging percentage against the offering, so even when they did hit it, they couldn’t do much with it.</p>
<p>Drew Pomeranz absolutely dominated using this strategy with the Padres, but things didn’t go quite as swimmingly in Boston. While AL batters still missed the pitch at a 32 percent rate, they did damage when they connected, hitting .264/.364 against the hook. They also teed off on his other offerings, with an ISO of .314 against his fastball and .303 against the cutter.</p>
<p>It would be easier to decide what to do with Pomeranz if he had recovered fully at some point after the deal, or simply never recovered. After giving up 12 runs in his first 14 innings in a Red Sox uniform, Pomeranz posted a 2.70 ERA in August. Then September rolled around and he failed to pitch six innings in any of his four starts, allowing 12 runs in 16 innings, and giving up five home runs. His only two decent outings that month were on the road in San Diego and Tampa (who also play in a notorious pitcher&#8217;s park). In the postseason he only lasted 3 2/3 innings. He struck out seven, but he also gave up two runs including a home run.</p>
<p>Pomeranz may still be an elite strikeout pitcher, but he also gives up his share of flyballs, and that’s going to mean a lot of home runs in the AL East. Yes, he’ll benefit when the ball goes to RF, but as a left-handed pitcher who will face lots of righties, the ball will more often be heading towards the green monster.</p>
<p>His numbers will get better than the disastrous 4.59 showing with Boston, but they may not break the 4.00 barrier and almost certainly won&#8217;t top 3.50, and he hasn&#8217;t gone deep into games.</p>
<h4>Eduardo Rodriguez</h4>
<p>Here is the absolute best progression candidate for the Red Sox rotation. Rodriguez’ overall season numbers were bad, but the 23 year old was coming off an injury to his landing knee, and his early results skewed the results heavily.</p>
<p>In his first six starts, Rodriguez posted an 8.59 ERA across 29 1/3 innings. Across his last fourteen outings, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 9.2 K/9, and allowed more than three runs only twice. Now, normally you can’t just take out the first six starts of a guy’s season and proclaim greatness, but with Rodriguez there’s a very real reason: He couldn’t throw his best pitch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8249" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (4)" width="891" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>In the first few outings back from injury, Rodriguez’ slider wasn’t getting the horizontal movement he expected (graph on right), so he didn’t throw it (left). Without the slider in his arsenal, hitters were able to sit back on the fastball/changeup combo, and they hit the young southpaw hard. When he started throwing the slider again at the start of July, his performance immediately took off. This follows logically, since his miss rate on the pitch was 30.7 percent of swings until the end of the season.</p>
<p>He doesn’t generate many groundballs, so he’s likely always going to be susceptible to the home run, but Rodriguez should probably be expected to put up a mid 3.00s ERA in 2017: he’s good.</p>
<h4>CONCLUSION</h4>
<p>In the end, there&#8217;s few reasons to suggest that the Blue Jays starters as a whole would be any worse than they were in 2016, save for health. Marcus Stroman should be much better, while Liriano and Happ could fall back a little.</p>
<p>It’s a rotation that could have four pitchers at or around 3.50 ERAs, with one guy in the low 3.00 range (Sanchez). Three of those guys should be able to throw 200 or more innings (Stroman, Sanchez, and Estrada), while a couple of the lefties could top around 180-190 or so (Happ and Liriano).</p>
<p>On the Boston side, Sale is likely to be mostly the same guy he always has been, and Rodriguez should take a big leap. Pomeranz will improve on his Boston numbers, but likely not to his SD levels, Price should improve a bit, but not to his former ace levels. Porcello should take a tiny step back, but not a notable one.</p>
<p>It’s a rotation that could also have four pitchers at or around 3.50 ERAs, with one guy in the low 3.00 range (Sale). Three of the guys should be able to throw 200 or more innings (Price, Porcello, Sale), while a couple of the lefties could top around 180-190 (Pomeranz and Rodriguez).</p>
<p>Those sound kinda similar, don’t they? The Red Sox have the best guy (Sale), but the Jays could have three of the next four best (Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada vs Porcello and Price). Boston has more depth with Steven Wright and Clay Buchholz, which should help them as the injuries roll out. However, in the end, Boston and Toronto&#8217;s rotations are going to perform much closer than you&#8217;d think.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>From the Bar or the Harbour: Red Sox Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/27/from-the-bar-or-the-harbour-red-sox-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/27/from-the-bar-or-the-harbour-red-sox-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 May 2016 16:09:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lineups]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3119</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Red Sox May 27th &#8211; May 29th The Blue Jays are coming home after a successful 5-2 road trip. Things looked uncertain at times, with an extra inning win pulled out of their hat in Minnesota, and a getting shut out on their first night in Yankee Stadium, however the overall results [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Red Sox</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">May 27th &#8211; May 29th</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are coming home after a successful 5-2 road trip. Things looked uncertain at times, with an extra inning win pulled out of their hat in Minnesota, and a getting shut out on their first night in Yankee Stadium, however the overall results were positive. The Jays haven&#8217;t really demonstrated a home field advantage this year. In fact, they are 9-13 at home and 15-12 on the road. The hope, of course, is that they will find their comfort zone sooner rather than later. The Red Sox are one of the toughest opponents in baseball, at 29-18 on the season, outscoring their opponents by 72 runs overall.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>May 27th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Aaron Sanchez vs. Joe Kelly</b></p>
<p>After last season, there were many who were fully in this &#8220;Sanchez will be a great starter&#8221; boat;  I (Matt) was not among them. The reason? While Sanchez had been successful in the bullpen, he was ostensibly a two-pitch pitcher. In fact, he&#8217;s arguably <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">still a two-pitch pitcher</a>. Two-pitch pitchers are generally prime candidates for the bullpen, but Sanchez&#8217;s main pitch, the two seam fastball, has so much movement and velocity that he&#8217;s able to fool hitters anyway. Even still, I worry that a team is going to adjust to that, and the Red Sox, with all their smart hitters, are as good a candidate as any.</p>
<p>Joe Kelly has career highs in every single category that you can name. Unfortunately for him, those &#8216;highs&#8217; include career high walk and home run rates. Kelly&#8217;s start against the Blue Jays will be just his fifth of the season after landing on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. He&#8217;s likely to get a bit better, but that probably won&#8217;t start with the Blue Jays. As <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/25/the-blue-jays-hitters-need-to-adjust-to-adjustments/" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam noted this week</a>, the Jays&#8217; hitters are real good at hitting fastballs, and that&#8217;s Kelly&#8217;s specialty. In fact, Joe Kelly has always thrown at least 50% fastballs, but this season <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=523260&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=05/27/2016&amp;s_type=2" target="_blank">he seems to have swapped his primary pitch from the sinking fastball to a four seamer</a>. Against the Jays, that should hurt him.</p>
<h4>May 28th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Marcus Stroman vs. Rick Porcello</b></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman is magical. He doesn&#8217;t lead the team in strikeouts, he doesn&#8217;t have the fewest walks, and he doesn&#8217;t have the lowest ERA. He&#8217;s also not the tallest pitcher nor does he throw the hardest. Yet Stroman does lead the team in innings pitched with 69 and a 1/3 thrown. As you likely know, he&#8217;s done that by being one of the craftier starters in the league; throwing six distinct pitches. Unfortunately, the Red Sox have been fairly good at hitting just about anything thrown their way this year. However, the pitch that they&#8217;ve faired worst against is the curveball&#8230;expect Stroman to toss a few more of those than normal.</p>
<p>In many ways, Porcello is much like Stroman. He also throws six distinct pitches, and his pitch of choice is the sinker. However, Porcello has never been able to induce the elite ground ball rates that Stroman routinely puts up. Nevertheless, he has had success this season in his own way, and has a case as the best Red Sox pitcher thus far. And again, like Stroman, against the heart of the opposing lineup, expect a few more breaking balls than usual.</p>
<h4>May 29th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>R.A. Dickey vs. David Price</b></p>
<p>There&#8217;s something unfortunately notable about Dickey&#8217;s 2016 season: it marks the first time that he&#8217;s had an ERA that is greater than his FIP. This year, through 10 starts, R.A. Dickey is sporting a 4.60 ERA and a 4.41 FIP, creating a FIP-ERA of -0.19. In general, one should expect that a pitcher&#8217;s FIP roughly equal their ERA. However, Dickey&#8217;s different. As a knuckleballer, one would expect that his BABIP fall far below the .300 average as knuckleballs are proven to induce weak contact. In turn, that should allow him to post ERAs well below his FIP. This season, Dickey&#8217;s sporting a .287 BABIP, which is well above his average of .269 since becoming a full time starter. As such, we can expect a little positive regression there, and in his 63.8 LOB%. For R.A. Dickey, it gets better.</p>
<p>Similarly to Dickey, David Price also has an ERA above his FIP this season. However, unlike Dickey&#8217;s -0.19 FIP-ERA differential, Price&#8217;s is at -2.52. His walk rate and home run rate are right in line with his career averages, while his strikeout rate is a career best. Ergo we should unfortunately expect Price to get better. Price has run in to some BABIP woes himself, sporting a .337 BABIP on the season; he should be at around .300 and his career average is .288. There&#8217;s something to be said for the fact that Price may just be leaving too many hittable pitches in the zone. If that&#8217;s the case, hopefully the Jays can take advantage. However, David Price is an ace and those pitchers don&#8217;t fade so quickly. This will be his first start back in Toronto since his magical run last season, so expect a nice hand from the sell out home crowd.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Joe Kelly returned to the Sox Rotation and threw six no-hit innings on May 24th, as noted above, he might not have as much success against the Jays lineup. Brock Holt, on the concussion DL, will remain absent for the Jays series as he recovers. His .310/.355/.448 career line at Rogers Centre will be one that the Jays are happy to bypass.</p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki is day-to-day with a quad injury, but is expected to play again very soon. When that situation firms up, the Jays are most likely to drop a bench infielder (I see you hiding over there Mr. Goins) and call up the rehabbing Aaron Loup.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong><del>Jackie Bradley Jr.&#8217;s Hitting Streak</del></strong></p>
<p>Okay, so the 29 game hitting streak that Jackie Bradley Jr. had been on actually ended in the final game before the Red Sox came to Toronto. Instead, we can all check out the player with the longest current hitting streak in the majors, Xander Bogaerts, at 19 games. The Red Sox, folks. All the hits.</p>
<p><strong>David Ortiz Retirement  Tour</strong></p>
<p>If there were an award for &#8220;Player Who is in Final Year but Looking Like He Is Leaving Too Early&#8221;, David Ortiz would be the unanimous choice.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">David Ortiz&#39;s last 162 games</p>
<p>54 doubles, 1 triple, 45 homers<br />141 RBI, 87 BB, 103 K<br />.296/.381/.618</p>
<p>As good as any season he&#39;s ever had.</p>
<p>&mdash; High Heat Stats MLB (@HighHeatStats) <a href="https://twitter.com/HighHeatStats/status/736182850861576193">May 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Better to hang them one year too early than one year too late, I guess.</p>
<p><strong>This &#8216;Wacky&#8217; Jays Lineup</strong></p>
<p>Apparently the Blue Jays players discussed a lineup change with management a couple of weeks ago, and their ideas were implemented. This included putting the highest OBP hitter, Jose Bautista, at the top of the lineup, instead of a guy who &#8216;has speed&#8217;. This crazy idea did not lead to the Jays scoring nine runs every night, but they have won some games with this configuration, and it keeps being pencilled in. That said, Devon Travis has returned, and after a nifty little single against a 102mph Aroldis Chapman fastball, you have to wonder if Gibbons will be tempted to move things around in a more &#8216;traditional&#8217; way.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Not sure how Devon Travis even got a bat on this pitch, but he did &#8230; <a href="https://t.co/N51SQYUrXX">https://t.co/N51SQYUrXX</a> <a href="https://t.co/qQtwN9lloV">pic.twitter.com/qQtwN9lloV</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Ian Hunter (@BlueJayHunter) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJayHunter/status/736013765913759744">May 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Red Sox</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Mookie Betts &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Dustin Pedroia &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Xander Bogaerts &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 David Ortiz &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Hanley Ramirez &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Jackie Bradley Jr. &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Travis Shaw &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Christian Vasquez &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Blake Swihart &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Red Sox are a hot team, and are way out in front of the division, like many predicted in the preseason. These are games that the Jays really do need to win the majority of in order to stay in contention. The winning formula for the Jays has been, to this point, seven innings from the starter, and then squeeze out three or four outs and give the ball to the unflappable Roberto Osuna. Only he and Joe Biagini have been worth trusting with the ball in the last month, which is kind of crazy. Until the lineups starts putting runs on the board, great performances from the starters are going to be the most important element of the Blue Jays game plan.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 4, Jays 2; Token David Price Pun</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/16/recap-red-sox-4-jays-2-token-david-price-pun/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/16/recap-red-sox-4-jays-2-token-david-price-pun/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Apr 2016 23:02:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angel Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Umps]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1564</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reunions can be bittersweet, can&#8217;t they? The Jays faced last year&#8217;s trade deadline acquisition David Price, and ended up losing. The Red Sox&#8217; new ace was excellent, starting to earn that big money contract they lavished on him in the off-season. He struck out eight over seven solid innings, with just two earned runs. Marco Estrada wasn&#8217;t quite [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reunions can be bittersweet, can&#8217;t they? The Jays faced last year&#8217;s trade deadline acquisition <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=54694">David Price</a>, and ended up losing. The Red Sox&#8217; new ace was excellent, starting to earn that big money contract they lavished on him in the off-season. He struck out eight over seven solid innings, with just two earned runs. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p/47658">Marco Estrada</a> wasn&#8217;t quite as good, striking out three and allowing four runs over six innings, with all the runs coming in one unfortunate inning. A couple of infield singles in the third inning both plated after a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67248">Xander Bogaerts</a> home run. After <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=32570">Jose Bautista</a>&#8216;s first inning RBI, when it seemed like the Jays might plate a few runs against Price early, they were unable to mount much offense. The Red Sox benefited from a balanced attack, as every starter except <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70430">Mookie Betts</a> reached base.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the Blue Jays leading 1-0 in the bottom of the 3rd, Xander Bogaerts came up to the plate with two runners on base. He promptly parked a ball in the seats above the Green Monster, giving the Red Sox a 3-1 lead. This was the pivotal play of the game for the Red Sox, as going from a deficit to a lead increased their chances to win by 26.1%. It gave the Red Sox a lead they made stand up for the remainder of the game.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays were trailing 4-2 to open the 8th inning, and Ezequiel Carrera got a bunt single, bringing Kevin Pillar to the plate. The much-maligned leadoff hitter grounded into a double play, lowering the Jays&#8217; chances to win by 13.1%, and snuffing out the best chance for a rally in that inning.</p>
<h3>DAVID PRICE IS REALLY GOOD</h3>
<p>Anyone who watched the Jays&#8217; exciting run to the postseason last year isn&#8217;t surprised by how good David Price is. Even with the Jays&#8217; reputation as a lefty mashing squad, Price settled into a good rhythm after a rough first inning. After <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56185">Josh Donaldson</a> (&#8220;getting his&#8221;, as he promised) tripled, and Jose Bautista doubled, the Jays weren&#8217;t able to sustain much against the Red Sox&#8217; new, expensive ace.  Price mixed speeds and locations well, keeping the Jays&#8217; struggling lineup off balance, and also benefited from a generous strike zone from umpire Angel Hernandez, as we will review shortly.</p>
<h3>THE STRIKE ZONE WAS REALLY BAD</h3>
<p>Hernandez is not a historic favorite for the Jays or their fans, and there were more than a few examples of why today. There were several calls that benefited Red Sox pitcher David Price, a player who does not need the help:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Call hurts <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a><br />Strike 1 should be ball 1<br />Top 1 Price vs Donaldson<br />8% call same<br />2.9in from edge <a href="https://t.co/JxNn5iUUqC">pic.twitter.com/JxNn5iUUqC</a></p>
<p>&mdash; BlueJays Strike Zone (@BlueJaysUmp) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysUmp/status/721429670701490177">April 16, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Call hurts <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a><br />Strike 1 should be ball 4<br />Top 4 Price vs Bautista<br />0% call same<br />5.4in from edge <a href="https://t.co/v8TLvQnm5p">pic.twitter.com/v8TLvQnm5p</a></p>
<p>&mdash; BlueJays Strike Zone (@BlueJaysUmp) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysUmp/status/721446741296463872">April 16, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Call hurts <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a><br />Strike 3 should be ball 3<br />Top 4 Price vs Donaldson<br />28% call same<br />1.6in from edge <a href="https://t.co/7dPSNk7Y6b">pic.twitter.com/7dPSNk7Y6b</a></p>
<p>&mdash; BlueJays Strike Zone (@BlueJaysUmp) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysUmp/status/721446404594475009">April 16, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>And, the cherry on top of the bad strike zone sundae, in the 9th inning, with flame throwing closer <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58350">Craig Kimbrel</a> on the hill for the Red Sox:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Call hurts <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a><br />Strike 3 should be ball 4<br />Top 9 Kimbrel vs Bautista<br />12% call same<br />2.4in from edge <a href="https://t.co/aJz1fm9SYf">pic.twitter.com/aJz1fm9SYf</a></p>
<p>&mdash; BlueJays Strike Zone (@BlueJaysUmp) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysUmp/status/721469208459153409">April 16, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Balls and strikes aside, the largest issue for the Jays is still lurking.</p>
<h3>TREND TO WATCH</h3>
<p>12 games in, and the Jays continue to scuffle on offense. This is a surprising development for a team that was the best offense in baseball last year, scoring 891 runs, an average of 5.5 runs per game. They&#8217;ve scored four or fewer runs in eight of their twelve games. While the Jays&#8217; pitching has been better than expected, it hasn&#8217;t usually been enough to overcome the drought. The core of the team (Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31564">Edwin Encarnacion</a>) have continued to be great, but they&#8217;ve gotten very little outside of those three and left fielder <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48766">Michael Saunders</a> (who had the day off today).</p>
<h3>UP NEXT</h3>
<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s day game kicks off at 11:35 ET, and features two starters who&#8217;ve begun the season well. The Jays will start hard throwing righthander Aaron Sanchez (1.38 ERA in two starts) against knuckleballer Steven Wright (1.35 ERA). Wright faced the Jays in his only prior start of the year, allowed one earned run and striking out five over six and two-thirds innings. Sanchez, despite having two excellent outings, has yet to record a win this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Facing the Former Ace: Red Sox Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/15/facing-the-former-ace-red-sox-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/15/facing-the-former-ace-red-sox-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Apr 2016 13:08:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer and Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1514</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox April 15th &#8211; April 18th That was better, wasn&#8217;t it? The Blue Jays bats seem to be coming alive after a very slow start. Toronto took the last two games against the Yankees to win the series and get their record to 5-5. Marcus Stroman was nothing short [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">April 15th &#8211; April 18th</h3>
<p>That was better, wasn&#8217;t it? The Blue Jays bats seem to be coming alive after a very slow start. Toronto took the last two games against the Yankees to win the series and get their record to 5-5. Marcus Stroman was nothing short of fantastic on Thursday night as he went eight innings, allowing only two runs. The Jays starting pitching staff has been excellent as they enter into the 11th game of the season on Friday. They&#8217;ll look to continue the trend in their fourth straight series against AL East teams. Speaking of continuing the trend, Josh Donaldson hit an absolute MONSTER shot to straight away center field to give the Jays the lead last night. Since joining the Jays, that was his 26th home run where he either tied it up, or gave the Jays the lead; unquestionably the most in MLB since the start of the 2015 season. Hopefully Donaldson will be able to up that number as the Blue Jays take on David Price for first time this season.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, April 15th – 7:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong> vs. <strong>Rick Porcello</strong></p>
<p>R.A. Dickey will be getting the first start in a redemption series against the Red Sox. Last Saturday, the Red Sox tagged Dickey for seven runs (six earned) over five innings. It wasn&#8217;t all bad for Dickey, as he did fan nine batters, a feat he didn&#8217;t accomplish throughout the entirety of the 2015 season. Dickey has yet to record more than 15 outs in a game, but has seen success pitching in Fenway Park in the past. In a small sample of 47 innings at Fenway, Dickey has only walked six batters while striking out 44. It is nice to see Dickey getting the start in the first game as it sets up the &#8216;Dickey Effect&#8217; for the rest of the staff over this four game series.</p>
<p>With Rick Porcello, we get a carbon copy of the same pitching matchup from last week. Porcello&#8217;s only start of the season came against the Jays last Saturday. He gave up four runs and seven hits over six innings, while striking out seven and walking just one. In doing that, he picked up the coveted pitcher win. Jose Bautista smacked Porcello around for two homers on the evening and I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if Porcello gives up a few more on Friday night. In 2015, Rick had the 10th highest HR/9 in the MLB and I bet Porcello isn&#8217;t thrilled to be seeing the Jays offense twice in one week. With that said, the Jays bats have started slowly, but maybe this game will provide the launchpad the Jays have been seeking.</p>
<h4>Saturday, April 16th – 4:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada</strong> vs. <strong>David Price</strong></p>
<p>Acestrada takes the mound after a sparkling debut on Sunday. He, like so many of the Jays&#8217; starting staff, went deep into the game, going seven innings while giving up zero runs. His changeup looked exceptional, as we have grown accustomed to seeing. He threw 27 of them, inducing nine swinging strikes; truly phenomenal numbers for a pitcher who had a limited spring training. Look for Estrada to continue to throw his fastball high in the zone, followed by his changeup down and away.</p>
<p>Well, this should be fun. David Price is going to be pitching against the Blue Jays. This isn&#8217;t new, Price has made 21 starts against Toronto throughout his career, but it feels so much different. Price accumulated a majority of those starts when he was in Tampa, accruing a 2.41 ERA and an astonishing 16-2 record. Quite frankly, Price has owned the Jays. Again, I can&#8217;t help but feel that this is different. Of course, the Jays have seen a substantial upgrade since those years, and they crush left-handed hitting. It&#8217;s unfortunate that the game isn&#8217;t in Toronto, but it should still be a fun one to watch!</p>
<h4>Sunday, April 17th – 1:35 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> vs. <strong>Steven Wright</strong></p>
<p>Sanchez has built on his excellent spring training with two exceptional regular season starts. Sanchez&#8217;s achilles heel has always been his control, however, this year he has been throwing strikes non-stop. Through his first two starts, Sanchez has walked three and struck out 13; while throwing nearly two thirds of his pitches for strikes. Steven Souza Jr. had this to say when asked what was the hardest fastball he has ever faced:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Aaron Sanchez. Best combo of life and velocity. <a href="https://t.co/RxFHqPoTrb">https://t.co/RxFHqPoTrb</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaysBaseball/status/719955263420252160">April 12, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>He was not exaggerating at all. Sanchez has averaged 95.4 mph on his sinker with 9.5 inches of horizontal break and 7 inches of vertical break. All he has to do is hit the zone consistently and the combination of movement and velocity will take care of the rest.</p>
<p>The series will feature its second knuckleballer when Steven Wright takes the mound for the Red Sox on Sunday. We saw him last week, which has been his only start of the year. He pitched a great game going 6.2 innings, giving up two runs (one earned). Wright was given a long leash, throwing 118 pitches; and why not, he was rolling along. The Jays aren&#8217;t used to hitting against a knuckleballer, but having more practice can&#8217;t hurt. It&#8217;ll be exciting to watch the extreme velocity contrast between the two starters on Sunday afternoon.</p>
<h4>Monday, April 18th – 11:05 AM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ</strong> vs. <strong>Clay Buchholz</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ will be commencing the final game of the series on Monday morning. Yes, morning&#8230;in the very early goings, Happ has reaffirmed the front office&#8217;s decision to sign him to a three year, $36 million deal in the offseason. Hopefully J.A. will continue to show consistency every time he toes the rubber. In both starts, he has gone six innings, giving up seven hits and striking out four. If this is the J.A. Happ we can come to expect, I will absolutely take it.</p>
<p>Clay Buchholz has not had a good start to his 2016 season. He has been tagged for 5 runs in both his starts and has given up far too many fly balls (20; 3 left the park). Contrastingly, Buchholz has induced only nine groundballs and seven line drives! However, Clay has shown an ability to turn around a slow start before. In 2015, he had an April ERA of 5.76 but finished the season very respectfully at 3.26. Perhaps he takes a while to get going, but in any event, expect Buchholz to rely on his sinker and cutter to get ahead in the count, followed by his curve and change to get hitters out. The Jays hitters have to forget Buchholz&#8217;s crooked numbers so far and respect him for what he has been able to do in the past.</p>
<h3>The Lead</h3>
<p>With their first home stand &#8212; one with more than its fair share of ups and downs &#8212; firmly in the rear view mirror, the Blue Jays have set sail for Boston where they&#8217;ll open up a four game series starting Friday night. With another three games in Baltimore following suit and no off-day in between, it&#8217;s a refreshing opportunity for the Blue Jays to escape the pressure, metaphorically loosen the grip on their bats, and rediscover the identity that made them the single most terrifying offensive juggernaut of the past decade. On their way to 891 runs &#8212; 127 ahead of the second place Yankees, averaging an absurd 5.5 per game &#8212; the Blue Jays led baseball with a .188 isolated power, and their 18.5 percent strikeout rate ranked fifth best. Thus far, they&#8217;ve been struggling in both categories. With a squad full of right handed hitters and a big, ugly green wall out in left field, here&#8217;s hoping Fenway is the cure for what&#8217;s ailing them.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Ambidextrous reliever Pat Venditte was called up from the Bisons on Wednesday, with Arnold Leon being designated for assignment to balance the ledger. Leon is out of options, and it seems probable he&#8217;ll find his way down to Buffalo upon his clearance of waivers. In Blake Swihart the Red Sox are carrying just one switch hitter &#8212; the kryptonite for the double-dealing Venditte &#8212; giving him the potential to be a useful second lefty in the series. In lower leverage situations when Cecil&#8217;s services would be overkill, look for Venditte to be assigned with handling the likes of David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Brock Holt, and Jackie Bradley Jr.</p>
<p>The Red Sox have been busy since we last saw them, placing the belt-busting wunderkind Pablo Sandoval on the 15-day disabled list with a left shoulder injury and demoting outfielder Rusney Castillo to Pawtucket. In their stead, the Red Sox have siphoned a couple of pieces off their Triple-A roster, recalling Christian Vazquez &#8212; which brings them to <em>three catchers </em>on the active roster &#8212; and Josh Rutledge to provide them with some depth off the bench. Eduardo Rodriguez, the lefty who impressed as a rookie in 2015, remains at least a couple of weeks away.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Jose Bautista</strong></p>
<p>As if you needed another reason to watch the Blue Jays right fielder on the destructive rampage that is his contract year, Senor Bats has chewed up Porcello&#8217;s sinker to the tune of a .464/.545/.786 career slash line across 28 at-bats. The two faced each other just a week ago, when Bautista took Ricky deep twice in the span of three innings. Look for the three-time Silver Slugger to feast.</p>
<p><strong>The Knucklebattery</strong></p>
<p>Last season, Josh Thole was charged with four passed balls in 127 innings behind the plate, with his pitchers accounting for another three wild pitches. In R.A. Dickey&#8217;s last start alone, which spanned just five innings, Thole was charged with two passed balls and the knuckleballer had a wild pitch to boot. At an average of 74.6 miles per hour Dickey&#8217;s knuckleball had its lowest velocity since April 24th, 2015, but this appeared to have a tangible impact on its eccentricity as it was flying all over the place &#8212; including to the outfield corners with regular frequency. Can the two keep the animal on its leash this time around?</p>
<p><strong>David Price</strong></p>
<p>Remember this guy? The Blue Jays once beloved rent-an-ace; the monstrous left hander with a dynamite fastball, faces his former teammates for the first time after weather issues in Cleveland postponed his scheduled trip to the mound in Toronto. While the Blue Jays have built a well-earned reputation for pummelling left handers into submission &#8212; they mashed .278/.354/.463 against southpaws in 2015 &#8212; things aren&#8217;t likely to come quite so easy against Price. Changeups are used to help neutralize the platoon advantage, and over the last three years David has developed his into a beauty. By year its usage rate has steadily increased; 16.70 percent, 19.83 percent, 22.64 percent, and 25.73 percent from 2013 through 2016, respectively, and it&#8217;s lethality has followed in tow. Through two starts this season, he&#8217;s thrown 53 changeups, 29 have been swung at, and 15 were whiffed on.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Boston Red Sox</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar (CF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mookie Betts (RF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson (3B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Dustin Pedroia (2B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista (RF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Xander Bogaerts (SS)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">David Ortiz (DH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki (SS)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Hanley Ramirez (1B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Collabello (1B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Travis Shaw (3B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders (LF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Brock Holt (LF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins (2B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Blake Swihart (C)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Thole (C)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>This four game series is a bizarre one, with each game starting progressively earlier in the day. After Friday&#8217;s typical 7:10 pm first pitch, the weekend starts are 4:05 pm and 1:35 pm, respectively, before Monday&#8217;s 11:05 am start on getaway day. Monday is the Boston marathon down in Boston, which evidently means the baseball game needs to start before most establishments are serving adult beverages. I don&#8217;t get it, either.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>They&#8217;re Coming Home: Red Sox Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/blue-jays-red-sox-preview-april-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/blue-jays-red-sox-preview-april-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Apr 2016 15:54:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McEwen &#38; Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays April 8th &#8211; April 10th Major League Baseball is back in Toronto and being played on Canadian soil for the first time since October of last year. If this wasn’t enough to get Blue Jays fans keyed up for Toronto’s opening weekend festivities, the division rival Boston Red Sox are in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">April 8th &#8211; April 10th</h3>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Major League Baseball is back in Toronto and being played on Canadian soil for the first time since October of last year. If this wasn’t enough to get Blue Jays fans keyed up for Toronto’s opening weekend festivities, the division rival Boston Red Sox are in town for a battle between what many prognosticators deem the two best clubs in the AL East. The curious decision to have the Red Sox open the season in Cleveland (MLB knows there are teams that play in warmer weather right?) means that the Sox have already had two games postponed this week and are either very rusty or very well rested. While the division won’t be won or lost this weekend, the series does offer the Blue Jays their first look at what may be a drastically improved Red Sox team. The series also provides Blue Jays fans their first opportunity to come out to support the defense of a division championship for the first time in over twenty years. Expect a raucous crowd for all three games, with attendance figures likely pushing 140,000 for the three-game set.</span></strong></p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, April 8th – First Pitch 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman </strong>vs.<strong> Joe Kelly</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If expectations for Marcus Stroman’s 2016 weren’t high enough heading into the season, he certainly ratcheted them up on Sunday in Tampa Bay. Stroman pitched eight innings allowing three runs on six hits, one walk and striking out five. While his final line may not have appeared to set the world on fire, Stroman threw 74 of 98 pitches for strikes and induced 17 ground balls. This is the guy everyone was dreaming on this offseason. He will face a tougher offensive opponent in Boston, but if they insist on making Stroman work, they could find themselves battling through a lot of 0-1 and 0-2 counts. If last Sunday is any indication, Stroman looks to be more than up to the task filling the shoes of staff ace. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With two of Boston’s first four games postponed due to weather, Joe Kelly will be making his first start of the season on Friday night at the Rogers Centre. Joe Kelly is a funny pitcher. Every time he is on the mound some announcer will proudly proclaim that he has &#8220;great stuff.&#8221; However, despite throwing a two-seam fastball with an average velocity of 95 miles an hour in 2015, Kelly just isn&#8217;t that good. He is still really susceptible to being hit around and only averages 7.4 K/9. Acquired at the 2014 trade deadline, Kelly made 25 starts for the BoSox last year, posting an ERA of 4.82 with a DRA of 4.28. He is no stranger to the Blue Jays either:  last year he faced the team four times and only managed one start (September 9) where he didn’t give up at least four runs.</span></p>
<h4><b>Satuday, April 9th – 1:07 PM ET</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong> vs. <strong>Rick Porcello</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">R.A. Dickey did many R.A. Dickey things during his first start of the season in Tampa Bay earlier this week earning his first win of the season. With his meniscus injury behind him and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/mlb/dickey-surgery-blue-jays-spring-training-1.3474177" target="_blank">an apparent rededication to fitness</a>, the 41-year-old Dickey will try to combat his declining strikeout rate and build on a much improved second half of 2015 that saw his ERA drop over two full runs – from 4.87 to 2.80. Dickey is the only Blue Jays starting pitcher that has thrown 200 innings in a season, and the team will be counting on him to go deeper into games than he did on Monday in Tampa Bay. The key for Dickey, as always, will be throwing strikes with his knuckleball. When he is ahead in the count, he is very, very tough to beat. Also, keep an eye out to see if he throws a few changeups in this game to some of the tougher left-handed bats like Ortiz or Shaw.</span></p>
<p>Rick Porcello enters his second year in Boston and the first year of a 4-year/$82.5 million dollar contract extension. Expectations were high for Porcello in his first season in Beantown, but things definitely did not go as planned. After posting WARP’s of 2.2 and 2.4 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, Procello was only worth 0.8 WARP last season, pitching to an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.36. There may be some reason to expect positive regression in Porcello’s performance this season. While he’s never been a big strikeout pitcher (5.8 K/9 in his career) he is adept at inducing groundballs (53% during his career). He relies heavily on a hard sinker, mixing in the occasional curveball and changeup. If it turns out that 2015 was an anomaly for the 27 year old Porcello, his return to league average will go a long way in stabilizing the Red Sox rotation. Stopping the Blue Jays offence though&#8230;that is a slightly more difficult task.</p>
<h4>Sunday, April 10th – First Pitch 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Marco Estrada</strong> vs. <strong>Steven Wright</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The last time Blue Jays fans saw Marco Estrada in a real game was when he was walking off the mound to a thunderous ovation in game five of the ALCS. After beginning the year with a backdated stint on the disabled list, Marco Estrada will make his 2016 debut on Sunday afternoon at the Rogers Centre. It will be interesting to see how he fares after an abridged spring training and with lingering back soreness. One of the central questions facing the 2016 Blue Jay pitching staff is whether or not Estrada’s 2015 is at all sustainable. If Estrada can come anything close to replicating that performance (his .216 BABIP will indeed be hard to sustain), it will go a long way towards stabilizing the Blue Jays pitching staff. Estrada struggled during his two starts against Boston in 2015; allowing 7 runs and 7 walks in 7.1 innings of work. </span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">While there was some speculation that baseball fans would be treated to the first ever knuckleballer vs. knuckleballer matchup this weekend, the postponed Red Sox games in Cleveland means Steven Wright will pitch in the series finale instead matching up with Dickey on Saturday. Wright will probably spend most of 2016 as a swingman for the Red Sox once Eduardo Rodriguez returns from the disabled list, but for now he is a member of the rotation. Much like his knuckleballing brethren (and fortunately for the Blue Jays), Stephen Wright is susceptible to wide variations in his performance, and lacks the ability to miss bats, which produced a measley 6.4 K/9 in 72.2 innings in 2016. Like Dickey, Wright uses a &#8220;hard&#8221; knuckleball, with his velocity on the pitch toppping out at just over 80 mph last year. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, they have an off-day following this start, so there shouldn&#8217;t be any knuckleball hangover for their series against the Yankees. </span></strong></p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While the Jays have made it through the first four games without anyone hitting the DL, they are currently dealing with a couple of minor injuries that are being classified as day-to-day. Josh Donaldson left Wednesday’s game with a right calf strain, which started in Montreal according to manager John Gibbons. Donaldson is likely to play Friday, but could get another day or two off to fully recover. Similarly, Michael Saunders is dealing with a hamstring issue but also expects to play this weekend. Expect to see more of Darwin Barney and Ezequiel Carrera if either is unable to play, and if a DL stint is required, Andy Burns or Dalton Pompey will probably at the front of the line to get the call. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While Craig Kimbrel was the marquee bullpen addition this off season, the team’s acquisition of Carson Smith provided the Red Sox with another hard throwing, elite reliever at the back end of their bullpen for a fraction of the price. Unfortunately for Boston, Smith is currently on the disabled list with a right flexor muscle strain and isn’t expected back any time soon. The Red Sox young starter Eduardo Rodriguez (3.85 ERA in 21 starts last year) is also out with a knee injury. </span></p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><b>The Red Sox Outfield Logjam.</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It will be interesting to see how John Farrell uses his plethora of outfield options. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. Rusney Castillo, Chris Young and Brock Holt make up quite a collection of players to roam the area beyond the dirt, but much like the Los Angeles Dodgers a year ago, there isn’t much sense of how they will be used. Bradley Jr. and Young are heavy platoon split players while Castillo is thus far a ball of untapped potential and disappointment. Brock Holt is Mr. Everywhere and could see time at any number of positions during the series. The only truly proven starter in the outfield is Mookie Betts who is &#8211; for a lack of a less soul-crushing word &#8211; awesome. </span></p>
<p><b>Strikeouts</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Part of the Blue Jays prolific 2015 offensive output was rooted in the lineup’s ability to hit for power without striking out (18.5 percent of the time as a team). This ability to combine hitting for power with a lack of swing and miss hasn’t shown up so far this season. Through four games the Jays are third in baseball with a 30.9 percent strikeout rate, and they just tied a franchise record for most strikeouts in a four game series with 46. Now ,besides being far too small a sample to make anything of these numbers, it’s worth noting that the Rays pitching staff is definitely built more on strikeouts than the Red Sox. It will be interesting to see how many swings and misses pitchers like Porcello and Kelly get compared to Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi, and Moore.  </span></p>
<p><b>Who Isn’t Pitching</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays are returning to Toronto down one key contributor from the 2015 playoff team. From the day David Price signed with Boston, Blue Jays nation began to anticipate when the star lefty would return to Toronto, and how they were going to greet their former hero. While Price was initially scheduled to pitch this weekend, postponed games in Cleveland pushed Price out of the picture. It was a curious decision from John Farrell, as with all of the rainouts, the Red Sox could have easily skipped Wright and used Price anyway. If you&#8217;re paying a guy $31M/season, don&#8217;t you want him facing your division rivals as often as possible, regardless of their lineup construction? While Price’s relationship with Toronto is more of a barstool talking point than anything, the baseball takeaway is that the Blue Jays get a huge gift by missing the best part of the Red Sox rotation.</span></p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Mookie Betts-RF</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Dustin Pedroia-2B</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Xander Bogaerts-SS</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">David Ortiz-DH</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Hanley Ramirez-1B</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Travis Shaw-3B</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Brock Holt-LF</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Blake Swihart-C</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF</span></strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Part two of the April AL East gauntlet that was foist upon the Blue Jays will likely bring a lot of hand-wringing from the fanbase, particularly after the tough losses in Tampa, but most of all this weekend will be filled with noise, and fun, from a community of people that want to celebrate their returning &#8220;champions.&#8221; A win in this series would send a nice statement to the people of Toronto, and the incoming Yankees, that the Blue Jays are ready and willing to take on all challengers for their division crown.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Revisiting J.A. Happ&#8217;s Offseason Contract</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Yin Chen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yovani Gallardo]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from locking down a starting job. Although, there were a few memorable moments in his Jays career. As one example, Happ made the Opening Day rotation in 2013 as a result of Ricky Romero&#8217;s sudden decline. That was certainly memorable. Whether it was bad luck or his own inconsistency, Happ was never able to cement his place in the Jays’ rotation during his time with Toronto. This had been an established pattern throughout his career. 2015 was the first season in which he’d made more than 30 starts, and only the third time he’d appeared in more than 30 games.</p>
<p>Having the security of a three year deal will make Happ’s place in the rotation much more certain. Teams don’t pay $12 million dollars a year for a swing-man. The deal may have seemed suspect at the time, but rest of the offseason has made Happ&#8217;s contract look much better. Here are a few of the other comparable pitchers that signed this offseason. (Note: All numbers in the tables are 2015 totals)</p>
<h3>Happ and Wei-Yin Chen</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-99 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png" alt="HappChen" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Once I sat down to write this piece, Chen was the first comp to spring to mind. They’re both left-handers with some experience pitching in the AL East, and a reputation for not pitching deep into games. Looking at their career numbers rather than 2015, Chen is also someone who has historically out-performed his FIP, while Happ has generally undershot it. As well, Chen has been reliable for the Orioles, while Happ has tormented organizations with potential. Chen also has the benefit of moving from the competitive American League East to the less competitive National League East, while Happ is transitioning back to the AL after his time in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>As for contracts, Chen signed a five-year deal with the Marlins worth $80 million dollars, which works out to an average annual value of $16 million per season. He will also cost the Marlins their second-round pick, as he declined a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. However, Chen is also a few years younger than Happ, which likely factored in to his getting a longer deal.</p>
<p>In a vacuum, Wei-Yin Chen is the better pitcher, and his going to a more favorable situation can’t hurt. With that said, his contract also gives him much more leverage with the opt-out after two seasons and the vesting option after six. The Jays, who would have had to give up their first rounder, were probably not seriously considering Chen at that price.</p>
<h3>Happ and Yovani Gallardo</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-101 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png" alt="happgallardo" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Despite his being effective against the Jays during the season, there were few free-agent pitchers that made Jays fans less excited than Gallardo. Though the baseball card stats (13-11, 3.42 ERA over 33 starts) look fine at first glance, there were several other things that hampered Gallardo’s value prior to his signing a contract with the Orioles. For one thing, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last several years, finishing 2015 at an ugly 5.9 K/9. For another, even though he made 33 starts, Gallardo didn’t throw many innings, averaging out at less than six per start. The last time Gallardo threw more than six innings in a start was June 27th, and that start was the only time all year he threw more than seven. Gallardo’s 2015 was his seventh full season in the Major Leagues, having notched 1473 innings in his career.One wonders if the miles on his arm are contributing to the waning strikeout rates and stamina.</p>
<p>The money (<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/possible-snag-in-deal-between-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html">and initially failed physical</a>) bore that out as Gallardo signed a two-year deal with the Orioles for $22 million, with a club option that could bring the total value of the deal up to $35 million. He did also cost the Orioles their first round selection, which would have been the 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick. They do get a compensation pick back with Chen signing with the Marlins, but it still ends up as a slight loss for them as they got a pitcher who&#8217;s probably going to be worse than Chen this year.</p>
<p>In the end, from only the stats, the balance of Gallardo’s career so far is certainly better than Happ’s. However, the declining innings and strikeouts from Gallardo, combined with his costing the Orioles a first round pick makes the Happ deal look like a better call. Does Gallardo’s contract being shorter make it better? Maybe, but teams generally shouldn’t throw away a first round pick for two years of a clearly declining starter.</p>
<h3>Happ and Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-100 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png" alt="HappEstrada" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>The 2015 statistics are different, but we clearly see two pitchers who&#8217;ve had similar career paths. Estrada, like Happ, has been inconsistent, previously bouncing in and out of the rotation with the Brewers. This seemed like it was going to continue in Toronto, as Estrada started the season in the bullpen, but he soon made his way into the rotation. Once that happened, the rest was history. He established himself as one of the Blue Jays’ best pitchers, posting career bests in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts; leading to a 10<sup>th</sup> place finish in Cy Young voting. After that season, Estrada, like the others on this list, had the dreaded qualifying offer hanging over his head, which hampered his value. Despite having a better year, he signed for similar money to Happ.</p>
<p>If we look solely at the 2015 stats, it appears that the Jays got a bargain with Estrada. However, as is the case with the other players we&#8217;ve looked at, trends and the body of work are important. In comparison to others in this piece, Estrada simply didn’t have the track record of success before coming to the Blue Jays. They acquired him for Adam Lind in the 2014-15 offseason; a player the Brewers &#8220;liked&#8221; so much that they moved him to the Mariners prior to this season. While the qualifying offer didn&#8217;t severely hamper the market for Chen and Gallardo, it did for Estrada. Though, that also could have been a few troubling trends. Estrada&#8217;s FIP was the second-highest he’d had in a full season in the big leagues, and despite a career low ERA, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Estrada thrived on a fantastic change-up, and it will be interesting to see if an off-season of preparation can help the league adjust to him. Nevertheless, Estrada and Happ provide similar value for the Blue Jays in 2016, with Estrada probably being a little bit better.</p>
<h3>Happ and Ian Kennedy</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-102 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png" alt="HappKennedy" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This offseason, Ian Kennedy got five years and $70 million dollars from the Royals. This came after a season wherein he lost 15 games and had a 4.26 ERA. Oh&#8230;and and he’ll cost the Royals their first round pick. That’s not a joke. That actually happened. Of course, the Royals are coming off of two World Series appearances&#8230;so it&#8217;s hard to criticize that front office too much. Maybe it&#8217;s mechanical: Edinson Volquez had his best year with the Royals, spotting 96 mph fastballs on the corner against the Jays during the postseason. If they fixed Volquez, maybe they think they can fix Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy was successful as recently as 2014, when he notched 13 wins, 201 innings, and a nice enough 3.63 ERA. He hasn&#8217;t always been bad. He’s also made 30 starts for six consecutive years, which is something to note in an age of increased pitcher injuries. As well, he did post a 9.3 K/9, which is a nice number from a starter. However, he&#8217;ll probably never reach the heights of his 2011 season in Arizona, when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, as he&#8217;s moving into the American League. The formerly touted Yankees prospect is more of a durable journeyman at this point. Although, given the construction of their team&#8230;maybe that’s what the Royals were looking for?</p>
<p>They have built fantastic bullpens, year after year, and maybe all they wanted was a pitcher who can go six innings and pass the ball off. As the Royals’ pick is somewhere in the 20s, a lost first rounder probably didn&#8217;t trouble them as much. Even then it’s still one less draft pick, spent on a pitcher who&#8217;s had one good season in the last three. Ultimately, this one’s the easiest to argue for the Jays, as Kennedy’s almost certainly a worse pitcher than Happ, save for that durability.</p>
<h3>Happ and David Price</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png" alt="HappPrice" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This is a hilariously unfair comparison for several reasons. David Price, by any measurement, is much, much better than J.A. Happ, and got way more money. The Red Sox didn’t even need to give up a draft pick to get him, as Price was acquired by the Blue Jays in a mid-season trade. One might use Happ’s stretch with the Pirates as a comparison, but playing the arbitrary endpoints game at the trade deadline is disingenuous at best. Taking the best stretch of Happ’s career and comparing it to an elite level starter&#8217;s usual output is a shaky attempt to justify the cavernous drop off from Price to Happ.</p>
<p>The reason Price is on this list is solely because he was the one whom Jays fans compared Happ to when he was signed. After spending prospects to get Price at the deadline, and watching him dominate down the stretch, fans (and I count myself in this group) harbored dreams of him staying with the Jays after his contract expired. Price certainly said all the right things about wanting to stay, but given how much he was going to cost, it was unlikely that he was going to return.</p>
<p>There were other holes for the Jays to fill, and future problems to consider. Estrada was a free agent, Mark Buehrle’s reliable 200 innings departed, and they had a club option on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, leaving up to four potential vacancies in Toronto’s rotation. With an arbitration raise coming to MVP Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s respective free agencies looming after this season, committing $30 million+ per season to David Price just didn’t make a lot of sense. There are times when spending for high-end talent is the right call, but for the Jays, already stocked with a lot of great players, spreading the wealth around was much more pragmatic.</p>
<p>In the clear light of day, and with real baseball that counts just around the corner, we can look back and see that the J.A. Happ contract was fine&#8230;perhaps even good with how the pitching market developed. Seeing that potentially lesser pitchers signed for more money and cost draft picks, the Jays moving quickly on Happ looks much better. However, coming down from the high of David Price, it’s easy to see how Happ would have seemed disappointing earlier on in the offseason. It didn’t help that Happ had a prior history with the Jays; a history that some fans remember all too well (for the wrong reasons).</p>
<p>J.A. Happ isn’t exciting. He’s not an ace. He’s not someone you can reliably pencil in for 200 innings. He&#8217;s not someone who&#8217;s going to contend for the Cy Young every year. J.A. Happ is a multi-grain bagel with butter for breakfast: it&#8217;s okay, it gets the job done, but it’s not much fun, and you’re not really looking forward to it. David Price was the cinnamon roll with sugary frosting: delicious, enjoyable, and something you want to have again, even if it isn&#8217;t a great long-term decision for your health. If there’s something we’ve all learned growing up, it’s that taking the bagel is probably the smarter move.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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