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	<title>Toronto &#187; Rotation Review</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: A Mixed Bag of Tricks</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/23/blue-jays-rotation-review-a-mixed-bag-of-tricks/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/23/blue-jays-rotation-review-a-mixed-bag-of-tricks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2016 18:50:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2981</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">read all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays starting rotation was coming off a disastrous overall week, which was mostly due to J.A. Happ&#8217;s meltdown against Tampa and some shakiness from Sanchez, but they looked to get on track with a few games against the lousy Twins. Let&#8217;s see how they did.</p>
<h3>MARCUS STROMAN</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.2 IP, 13 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 60 strikes, 38 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch mix: 1 Fourseam Fastballs, 55 Sinkers, 8 Changeups, 11 Sliders, 12 Curveballs, 15 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>This was one of the worst starts of Marcus Stroman&#8217;s career, as the seven runs allowed represent the most since Stroman debuted in the big leagues in early 2014. The Rays were all over him from the very beginning, scoring one run in the first, <em>three</em> in the second, and another one in the third. Even in his shutout inning (the fourth), the Rays managed to get a hit. The Blue Jays number one starter clearly just didn&#8217;t have it on this day. Unfortunately, this start was coming on the heels of J.A. Happ getting torched by the same Rays team, so Stroman was forced to pitch into the sixth inning. Finally, after giving up yet another double (the fifth extra-base hit of the game) and a walk, Pat Venditte was called in to try and clean things up.</p>
<p>Stroman doesn&#8217;t get a lot of swings and misses to begin with, but this start was especially bad. The Rays swung and missed at just four of his sinkers (28 swings on 55 pitches), no changeups or sliders, and just three curveballs. When you&#8217;re not missing bats at all, it&#8217;s tough to win. The biggest reason he was having so much trouble getting whiffs is also the reason he gave up so many extra-base hits. He just couldn&#8217;t get the ball down. As you can see from the graph below, almost everything was in the middle of the plate, or well off of it. When you throw the ball there, you&#8217;re going to get hurt.</p>
<p>There isn&#8217;t really much more to say about this outing. Like Happ last time around, Stroman clearly just did not have his command. Every starter just has games where they can&#8217;t get anybody out (except maybe Clayton Kershaw), and this was one of his.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_05_17_tbamlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="500" height="333" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. DICKEY</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP, 3 HR, 65 Strikes, 38 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 96 Knuckleballs, 5 Twoseam Fastballs, 2 Fourseam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>This outing started pretty well. Dickey struck out the first two batters of the game, and had four through his first two innings of work. In fact, he was cruising until with one out in the fourth inning Logan Morrison and Desmond Jennings took him deep for back-to-back home runs. He gave up an unearned run in the fifth, then allowed a two-run homer to Kevin Kiermaier in the sixth inning. It was an interesting outing, as the only time Dickey ever appeared to be in any actual trouble was the second inning, with runners on second and third and two out (thanks to a passed ball), but he didn&#8217;t give up a run. All of the Tampa scoring came in a flash, with the three home runs.</p>
<p>Dickey struggled to get ahead of batters in this game, throwing first pitch strikes to just 14/27 hitters, but that wasn&#8217;t really the reason he got hurt.  He threw strikes for most of the game, and his knuckler was dancing. However, it&#8217;s no secret that velocity on the knuckler is what helps make Dickey successful. As mentioned last week, that has been trending up lately (see graph below). Unfortunately, the first two home runs came on knuckleballs at 73 and 74 mph, respectively. The third came in at 78, but was up and in and Kiermaier just turned on it.  As long as he continues to throw the pitch hard, he should be hurt far less often.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2994" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (11)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>The six strikeouts and the one walk are encouraging signs, and this is the first time this year where Dickey has really had an issue with home runs, so this is still an overall decent start.</p>
<h3>MARCO ESTRADA</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 68 strikes, 36 balls<br />
</strong><strong>Pitch Mix: 57 Fourseam Fastballs, 27 Changeups, 9 Curveballs, 11 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Facing the lowly Twins, expectations on Estrada were pretty high for this start, and he didn&#8217;t disappoint. After allowing an unearned run in the first inning and a run off a bunt single in the third, Estrada was untouchable. He kept the Minnesota hitters off-balanced all night, matching his season high with nine punchouts, while also putting up a season low one walk. Of the nine strikeouts, seven were swinging, and Estrada generated 15 whiffs on 48 swings. That is good for a 31.25 percent Whiff rate, with league average hovering just about 22 percent. So clearly, the Twins just couldn&#8217;t handle what Estrada was throwing up there.</p>
<p>As usual, Estrada caused his fair share of popups and flyballs (13), but what&#8217;s most important is that he continues to limit hard contact. He has yet to allow more than five line drives in a single game (this one, in fact, though two were off the end of the bat), and when you avoid those, the odds of having success go way up.</p>
<p>Estrada did a ridiculously good job of working up in the zone with his fastball (and its 12.5&#8243; of &#8216;rise&#8217;), and down in the zone (or out of it) with the changeup and curveball. By constantly changing the hitters&#8217; eye level in addition to changing speeds (see below), the Twins just had no chance. When Estrada is locating the way he was in this game, it&#8217;s very tough on opposing batters. Sadly, Estrada didn&#8217;t get the win because of the lousy Jays bats, but he continues to look every bit like the front of the rotation guy he was last year.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/pitches.gif"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2995" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/pitches.gif" alt="pitches" width="750" height="251" /></a></p>
<h3><strong>AARON SANCHEZ</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 65 strikes, 31 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 13 Fourseam Fastballs, 67 Twoseam Fastballs, 3 Changeups, 12 Curveballs</strong></p>
<p>Coming off a tough outing against the Rangers where he gave up some late runs (with the help of the bullpen) to lose a lead, Sanchez looked to get back on track against the lowly Twins. He gave up an early run (in the second inning), but wouldn&#8217;t allow another Minnesota player to cross home plate until his seventh, and final, inning. The seven strikeouts are encouraging, including an extremely impressive sixth inning where he struck out the side, all swinging. The whiffs were an issue for Sanchez in the past, but that seems to be somewhat behind him now. However, even more encouraging about this outing is that Sanchez didn&#8217;t allow a walk. It is the first time since his season debut against the Rays that Sanchez has not issued a free pass. This is particularly nice to see because the command had been somewhat elusive of late, with five and four walks in his last two starts, respectively.</p>
<p>It should come as no surprise that Sanchez dominated the Twins, as they lean extremely right-handed. Their only real offensive threat that hits from the left side is Joe Mauer, and he isn&#8217;t exactly the batting champion he used to be. Interestingly, Sanchez was <em>extremely</em> fastball-heavy in this outing. He threw just fifteen offspeed pitches in the entire game (84 percent fastballs), including just three changeups. The split of offspeed stuff isn&#8217;t surprising with the left-right split, but Sanchez threw just one curveball from his 68th pitch until the end of the game.</p>
<p>There are few pitchers who can succeed while throwing almost exclusively fastballs, but Sanchez is clearly one of them. When he has a good one, he really doesn&#8217;t need much else. He had a good one in this game. He had his highest average velocity on the pitch all season at 96.85 mph (he only topped 96 mph once previously &#8211; that first start against Tampa), and his highest max velocity as well, breaking 99 mph for the first time all season (99.25 mph). He didn&#8217;t have the same run on his two seamer as usual, but was getting more sink (an extra half inch). That velocity, with sink (and still plenty of run) is tough enough to hit when Sanchez is having control issues. When he&#8217;s pounding the zone as he did in this game, he&#8217;s pretty much untouchable.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2996 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (12)" width="957" height="323" /></a></p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. HAPP</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 61 strikes, 34 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 43 fourseam fastballs, 22 sinkers, 12 changups, 3 curveballs, 15 cutters .</strong></p>
<p>Happ was coming off a disaster outing against the Rays, and looking to get back to his winning ways against the Twins. If you just looked at the runs allowed, you might think this start was merely decent, but when you look at the whole thing, Happ was absolutely dominant. He didn&#8217;t allow a run in the first seven innings, and had only allowed a single hit which was immediately erased on a double play. He struggled to open the eighth, however. He gave up a leadoff seeing-eye single, then walked the light-hitting Darin Mastroianni (for the second time) to put runners on first and second with nobody out. He received a gift when Kurt Suzuki popped up a bunt, but Danny Santana followed with a line drive double to tie the game. Gavin Floyd then came in and gave up a home run (after a hit batter), to cash the third run charged to Happ.</p>
<p>Despite taking the loss, Happ was absolutely on point. He gave up three walks and despite throwing first pitch strikes to 55.5 percent of the hitters, he still managed to keep the Twins off-balance for the entire game. He reached double digits in missed swings for the third time this season (10), and had his second lowest &#8220;hard-hit&#8221; rate of the season at just 21.1 percent (best was against the Giants).</p>
<p>Happ was throwing harder in this game than he had at any point in the season, averaging 94 mph with his fourseam fastball. He also touched 96.4 mph on one of them, which again, was a season-high. As we&#8217;ve mentioned before, a huge reason for Happ&#8217;s success has been how unpredictable he is from start to start with his pitch mix, and this was no exception. With Happ firing bullets,  Martin went heavily with the fourseamer over the two-seamer, which reversed a trend we had been seeing for much of the season. In addition, he went heavily with cutters and changeups to play off the increased velocity instead of dropping in curveballs to get outs. It will be interesting to see what he does next time out if the velocity holds.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-141.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2997" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-141.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (14)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>34.0 IP, 35 H, 19 R, 17 ER, 7 BB, 29 K, 0 HBP, 3 HR. 1-3, 4.50 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
297.1 IP, 261 H, 128 R, 117 ER, 96 BB, 230 K, 5 HBP, 28 HR. 12-9, 3.54 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Once again, a horrible start has skewed the overall numbers, as a 4.50 ERA would suggest the rotation was bad. However, three of the five starts were legitimately excellent (Happ, Sanchez, Estrada), with one rough one (Dickey) in addition to the dreadful outing. It started out poorly, but turned around nicely.  In particular, it was nice to see how Sanchez and Happ bounced back following hiccups last time through. All in all, it was a decent turn for the starters and bodes well going forward.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Lousy Baseball Gods</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/blue-jays-rotation-review-lousy-baseball-gods/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/blue-jays-rotation-review-lousy-baseball-gods/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 May 2016 14:53:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2840</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">read all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays starting rotation was coming off by far its best week to date, posting a 1.47 ERA over 36.2 innings. It was their second straight turn with an ERA under 2.00, and had people dreaming of the type of rotation that could carry this team through their current offensive woes. Let&#8217;s see how they did this week.</p>
<h3>MARCUS STROMAN</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 66 strikes, 37 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch mix: 2 Fourseam Fastballs, 50 Sinkers, 9 Changeups, 11 Sliders, 13 Curveballs, 18 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off a very solid performance against the Dodgers, Stroman faced another decent offense from the NL West and the results were again very good. Despite allowing four runs in his start, only two were earned and he generated mass amounts of groundballs. 21 of the 27 batters either put the ball on the ground or struck out, but some poor fielding performance up the middle definitely played into his numerically average start. In the second inning Stroman allowed a lead-off single to Brandon Crawford, which was promptly followed by an error by Troy Tulowitzki which allowed Crawford to score when Gregor Blanco doubled as the next batter up. A Denard Span groundout scored Conor Gillespie (who had reached on the error) before the threat was ended. The fifth inning was quite different though, as Stroman loaded the bases with two hits and a walk before getting Buster Posey to ground into a double play. A run scored on the double play and Hunter Pence followed with a double that was almost caught by the insane Kevin Pillar (as we learned from Sunday&#8217;s scrum, not just as a fielder).</p>
<p>Despite giving up eight hits, Stroman actually allowed the lowest percentage of hard hit balls of the season. Stroman pounded the lower half of the strike zone with only seven of his 70 fastball type pitches (cutter, sinker and fastballs) coming in the upper part of the zone (see below), and five of those were outside of the strike zone. The only real mark against Stroman in this start was his inefficiency as he needed 103 pitches to get through six innings despite throwing first pitch strikes to two-thirds of the batters he faced. Coming into this game, Stroman IP total ranked second in baseball; he was only behind Clayton Kershaw. I think we can allow him a six inning outing.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s notable is that once again, Stroman leaned heavily on his cutter. It&#8217;s a pitch that we have suggested in this space as being valuable to him, so it&#8217;s nice to see him using it often.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_05_11_tormlb_sfnmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="500" height="333" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. DICKEY</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 74 Strikes, 37 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 102 Knuckleballs, 9 Twoseam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>This was easily Dickey&#8217;s best start of the season to date, as not only did he not allow a run, but he pitched eight complete innings. Dickey&#8217;s overall value comes from his ability to eat innings, and he seems to finally be starting to do that. He was facing a reasonably tough Rangers offense, and just completely shut them down, allowing only four baserunners the entire night. The strikeouts were also nice to see, as they show just how badly the Texas hitters were struggling to pick up the knuckleball.</p>
<p>Dickey did a great job getting ahead of hitters in this outing, throwing first pitch strikes to 19 of the 27 batters he faced. That allowed him room to move around the strike zone and get chases. Of course, we often talk about how important command is for Dickey, and this start was no exception, but the thing that made him different from all other knuckleballers (except perhaps for the most recent addition, Steven Wright in Boston), wasn&#8217;t his command of the pitch; it was how hard he throws it. Well this start saw Dickey post his hardest knuckleball of the season, continuing a trend that has been building for him of late. He averaged 77.2 mph on the knuckler and threw a few of them over 80 mph, topping at 82. When a ball is moving at that speed and you don&#8217;t know where it&#8217;s going, it&#8217;s pretty tough to hit. Dickey typically starts to throw the knuckleball harder as the weather starts to warm up, so there&#8217;s a good chance the hot Texas air helped him out a bit here. Hopefully we see more of it once summer finally hits in Toronto.</p>
<p>As with Happ last week, sometimes you just need to see it for yourself. So here you go:</p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=692989283&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe>
<h3>MARCO ESTRADA</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 64 strikes, 35 balls<br />
</strong><strong>Pitch Mix: 39 Fourseam Fastballs, 32 Changeups, 15 Curveballs, 13 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off two straight excellent starts, hopes were high for Estrada to follow up on Dickey&#8217;s outing and start a mini winning streak. Instead, the command issues he has been facing this season finally came back to haunt him. Marco Estrada will always give up home runs. Even in his magical 2015, he still gave up the long ball at an above average rate. He&#8217;s a flyball pitcher, and sometimes they just leave the yard. What has made him effective was the ability to limit the overall baserunners to turn those homers into solo shots, as he had done in his previous two outings. This time Estrada walked two hitters (and gave up a single to a third one) to load the bases for Bobby Wilson, and Wilson made him pay with a grand slam home run.</p>
<p>Estrada settled down after that, allowing just a single unearned run (a flyball fell between a confused Ezequiel Carrera and Michael Saunders for a triple, then the runner scored on a passed ball by Russell Martin), but the damage was done. The Jays actually managed to tie the game with back-to-back ninth inning homers, but ended up falling in extra innings.</p>
<p>As you may have noticed looking above, Estrada threw almost as many changeups as fastballs in this outing. There were two reasons for that. The first is that Estrada&#8217;s changeup is just that good, and the Rangers couldn&#8217;t touch it (10 misses on 20 swings). But more importantly, Estrada was having all kinds of trouble locating his fastball</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_05_14_tormlb_texmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="500" height="333" /></p>
<p>This is interesting, because it had a big impact on those first four runs he allowed. In the aforementioned Wilson, Estrada jumped ahead 1-2 with both strikes coming on on fastballs. After <em>just</em> missing with a changeup for ball two, Martin called for fastballs (or cutters) on five of the next six pitches, finally going deep on a cutter. Estrada had already shown he couldn&#8217;t command the pitch (three walks) and Wilson looked absolutely hopeless on the offspeed stuff. Even with the bases loaded, it was a bizarre choice, and it ended up hurting.</p>
<h3><strong>AARON SANCHEZ</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 63 strikes, 34 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 12 Fourseam Fastballs, 53 Twoseam Fastballs, 15 Changeups, 17 Curveballs</strong></p>
<p>If you just look at the stat line for this game, you&#8217;re going to come away with a skewed impression of Sanchez&#8217; performance in this start. When he left the game in the seventh, there were runners on first and second, with two outs. For most teams, that&#8217;s reasonably safe&#8230;but not for this Jays bullpen! Jesse Chavez proceeded to clear the bases in a hurry, allowing a home run to the first hitter he faced (he previously did this to Marcus Stroman against Boston). That&#8217;s not to say that Sanchez was absolved of all blame in this game. Three of the six runs he allowed originally got on base via the walk, and he walked another leadoff hitter who he was able to strand. He also gave up a home run to a right-handed hitter for the first time in his big league career when Adrian Beltre took him deep in the sixth. Of course, that kind of stat is impressive, not a problem. Sanchez has faced 346 right-handed hitters and given up just one home run, and it was to a future Hall of Famer. Incredible.</p>
<p>There were still plenty of good things to take away from this Sanchez start. Despite the four walks, Sanchez was very economical; he faced five batters in the 7th, but only threw 97 pitches. That&#8217;s the type of thing people didn&#8217;t expect to see from the young hurler, but that he has been delivering consistently since his first outing back in April. The reason he was able to keep the count is that, with a couple of exceptions, he was very much around the plate the entire game (see below). When he got to two strikes he would go to that power curveball to get punchouts, but he was getting a lot of quick ground balls.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=592717&amp;game=gid_2016_05_15_tormlb_texmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="500" height="333" /></p>
<p>Obviously what happened after Sanchez left is going to be the dominant story from this game, but that shouldn&#8217;t take away from some encouraging signs. If he can keep getting quick outs, he is going to be very fun to watch this year.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. HAPP</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 2.0 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 30 strikes, 21 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 14 fourseam fastballs, 19 sinkers, 6 changups, 4 curveballs, 8 cutters .</strong></p>
<p>From one of the best starts the Blue Jays have seen in years to one of the worst (interestingly, the front runner for both good and bad starts is Brandon Morrow), Happ really struggled against the Rays. He got hit all around the park, and just never got a chance to get settled and find his groove. The big struggle for the tall lefty in this game was his fastball command as he was consistently missing down and in to right handed hitters or leaving pitches belt high and out over the plate. Pitches were crushed all game against Happ as none of the 10 balls in play were deemed softly hit. He didn&#8217;t struggle with velocity or movement on the day, it was just location. He threw only 35% of his pitches in the strike zone, and when you get behind in the count, this is what happened. As was mentioned last week, Happ has been continually changing his pitch mix from game to game, this week it was the cutter that saw a spike in usage&#8230;but he threw all eight for balls. In particular the sinker really let him down as he gave up two homers and six of the seven hits he allowed on the pitch.</p>
<p>Overall though, there just isn&#8217;t much analysis for a game like this. Happ was awful and lasted two innings. We just have to forget it and move on.</p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>28.2 IP, 30 H, 23 R, 20 ER, 12 BB, 24 K, 0 HBP, 4 HR. 1-2, 6.28 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
255.2 IP, 223 H, 108 R, 99 ER, 87 BB, 198 K, 5 HBP, 25 HR. 11-6, 3.49 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>With a 6.28 ERA, the Blue Jays starting staff went from their very best turn to their absolute worst. Some of that is skewed, however, as Happ&#8217;s blow up and the inept bullpen have raised the numbers. Dickey, Stroman, and Sanchez all threw reasonably well (excellent for Dickey), so they really just need to turn the page. After all the early season dominance, the Baseball Gods clearly just wanted them to suffer a little.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Is This Even Legal?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/11/blue-jays-rotation-review-is-this-even-legal/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/11/blue-jays-rotation-review-is-this-even-legal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 May 2016 16:18:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. Last time [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we’re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn’t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">read all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>Last time through the rotation the Blue Jays starting pitchers feasted on opposition hitting (or lack thereof), posting a 1.83 ERA over 34.1 innings. That&#8217;s certainly a tough performance to top. Were they able to build on their fantastic showing the prior week or were there some long faces leaving games? Let&#8217;s take a look.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 66 strikes, 40 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch mix: 1 Fourseam Fastballs, 50 Sinkers, 5 Changeups, 18 Sliders, 6 Curveballs, 26 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off arguably his most dominant performance of the season against the Rays, Marcus Stroman took on a tougher Dodgers lineup in an attempt to help start a small winning streak. For much of the early parts of the season, Stroman was getting a lot of groundball outs, but wasn&#8217;t really getting the strikeouts to help him reach ace level. That changed against Tampa Bay, so the Blue Jays ace hoped to continue the trend. He certainly delivered, going seven strong innings, allowing just two runs and striking out eight &#8211; one off his season high. He also generated 13 swings and misses, which is his second highest total of the year (14 against Tampa). Considering the difference in the quality of opponents (the Dodgers actually take the occasional pitch), this could have been considered an even better outing than last time.</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t without its faults, however. Once again, Stroman gave up runs late, giving up both runs in the seventh inning on a two out sequence that went double, RBI double, RBI single. In five of his seven starts this season, Stroman has given up late runs that either blew a lead, or caused it to shrink considerably. Obviously a huge part of that is the fault of the struggling bullpen (either blowing leads or being simply untrustworthy) but the Blue Jays and John Gibbons have to recognize when Stroman is starting to falter earlier.</p>
<p>Overall though, this was still an excellent outing for the Duke University graduate. He carved through a tough lineup and had them off balance for essentially the entire game. As mentioned, he also got a lot of strikeouts for the second straight game. A big reason for this is the further increased use of his cutter. Last week&#8217;s Rotation Review broke down how Stroman was using this pitch as a strong complement to his sinker. By having a pitch that breaks on the same plane as his fastball, just in the opposite direction, it makes both pitches much tougher to hit. There is, however, another factor:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-81.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2553" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-81.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (8)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Last week, Stroman mixed cutters and curveballs. This week, he almost completely junked the curveball and went to the slider as his secondary pitch. Early in the season, he would go back and forth with the changeup, which he barely threw this time out. This is a theme that is going to show up a few times in this piece, but Stroman is altering his pitch mix every start. This makes him almost impossible to scout. If you have to worry about four or five different pitches in any count, it&#8217;s pretty tough to hit.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 60 Strikes, 27 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 79 Knuckleballs, 8 Twoseam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>In his last start, Dickey shut down the Texas Rangers and managed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first time this season. This was of some importance, as Dickey&#8217;s main value to this team is as a man who can provide a whole bunch of innings worth of league average production. Therefore, if he&#8217;s not going deep into games, he isn&#8217;t all that useful. Thankfully, after a very rough April, Dickey seems to be finding his stride. He put up his longest outing of the year, and aside from one rocky inning, really held the Dodgers at bay. His issues came in the third inning, but he really didn&#8217;t have help. After Dickey allowed a leadoff single, Corey Seager hit a chopper in the hole between shortstop and third base for an infield single. With two on and none out, Dickey got the groundball he needed, but Darwin Barney failed to field the ball, and instead of a double play (or at least a forceout), the bases were loaded with nobody out. Josh Thole followed with a passed ball to let in one run, then Adrian Gonzalez singled in two more. Dickey escaped without any further damage, but considering he was matched up with Clayton Kershaw, that pretty much meant the ballgame.</p>
<p>Overall, this was a very effective outing. Even though he struggled to get ahead of batters (59 percent first pitch strikes), Dickey threw a ton of strikes overall (69 percent). When he is commanding the knuckleball, he is tough to hit. Joc Pederson took a high floater deep, but really, the Dodgers couldn&#8217;t do any real damage. Another encouraging sign was that Dickey threw his hardest knuckleball of the season, breaking 80 mph for the first time. The thing that always separated Dickey from other knuckleballers was his ability to throw the pitch hard. So far this year, that has been a problem. Thankfully, he tends to get a bit better as the season goes on:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2554" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (9)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Whether it&#8217;s the weather or some other external factor, R.A. Dickey really struggles to throw his best knuckleball early in the season. If he can continue to increase that velocity, starts like this one could be come the norm again, instead of the outlier.</p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 63 strikes, 40 balls<br />
</strong><strong>Pitch Mix: 47 Fourseam Fastballs, 26 Changeups, 12 Curveballs, 18 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>For the second straight week, Marco Estrada allowed just a solo home run while completely dominating the rest of the game. The only run he gave up was in his seventh and final inning as he left with a 2-1 lead. Of course, as has happened far too often this season, great starting pitching was ruined by a disastrous bullpen effort. But this is the Rotation Review, not the Staff Review, so we&#8217;ll focus on Estrada. As has become commonplace, the 32-year-old was masterful. The Dodgers really didn&#8217;t hit anything hard all night until the Pederson home run (on a hanging curveball), and Estrada mixed in eight strikeouts, which gives him three starts where has has put up more strikeouts than innings pitched. Overall his, K/9 has risen from 6.5 last year to 8.6 this year, and his K% has risen from 18.1 percent to 23.7 percent.</p>
<p>Even with the strikeouts, as was pointed out in this space last week, it is unusual for Estrada to dominate without any balls in play being classified as infield fly balls. But for the second straight dominant start Estrada has done just that. While there were no pop ups, he still induced his fair share of soft flyball outs. However, the vast majority of the outs were actually on the ground. Estrada put up a 64.7 percent groundball rate, which was easily his highest of the season. A big part of that is his increase used of his improved cutter, <a title="Marco Estrada Is Changing Things Up" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/" target="_blank">which Joshua Howsam outlined here</a>. In this start, Estrada threw 17.5 percent cutters, which is his highest rate since his season opening dominance of the Red Sox.</p>
<p>Estrada was slightly more fastball heavy than previous starts this season. In a way it was somewhat odd given the left handed heavy nature of the Dodgers lineup. But by using the cutter, he was able to get in on the hitters&#8217; hands which forced them to open up the outside corner for his other offerings. As you can see from the chart below (catcher&#8217;s perspective), almost all the cutters were on the inner half to lefties, and most of the fastballs and changeups were away.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_05_08_lanmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As is always the case, getting ahead of hitters is also extremely important, and Estrada managed to throw first pitch strikes to 18 of 27 batters (2/3). After 0-1 counts this season, Estrada is limiting hitters to a .157/.203/.271 line and has allowed just 15 of 74 batters to reach base, so this was a big factor in his success in this game. All-in-all, Estrada has done his best to prove all the doubters wrong as he continues to show that last season&#8217;s saviour act was not an aberration. If there is one thing to be somewhat concerned about, it is his rising walk rate, though if he continues his improved strikeout rate, it could be somewhat of a moot point.</p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 57 strikes, 48 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 20 Fourseam Fastballs, 65 Twoseam Fastballs, 14 Changeups, 6 Curveballs</strong></p>
<p>This was something of an interesting start for the young, fireballing righthander. Against the hapless San Francisco Giants, Sanchez walked five batters and managed to throw just 54.2 percent of his pitches for strikes, while also generating his fewest groundballs of the season (52.6 percent). Of course, 52.6 percent groundballs is still fantastic, and the overall line looks downright dominant. Three hits and one run in seven innings? That&#8217;s elite. So overall, I don&#8217;t think anybody would (or could) complain.</p>
<p>So how did he do it? How does someone struggle to throw strikes and still hold a team down like that? Well, it starts with what we all know of Mr. Sanchez: <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/" target="_blank">He has elite stuff</a>. And in this start, the stuff was even better. As you can see from the numbers above, Aaron Sanchez threw a LOT of fastballs (either four or twoseam). What was interesting is that, while they were getting the same horizontal movement they usually do, they were both dropping considerably more.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2555" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (10)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>That type of increased movement, combined with the raw velocity, will lead to a lot of weak contact. Of course, it should also lead to more groundballs, and as mentioned above, Sanchez had his fewest grounders of the season. Well, the fastballs <em>did</em> lead to more grounders. 58.3 percent of them, in fact. However, Sanchez also threw a lot more changeups in this game, and they just kept on generating weak popups (60 percent of balls in play).</p>
<p>Sanchez&#8217;s evolution as a pitcher has been very interesting to watch this season, as has Russell Martin&#8217;s pitch-calling. Coming into the year, Sanchez was basically a two pitch pitcher. He has a big time fastball, and a power curve, but the changeup was always in question. Then last time out, he threw almost as many changeups as curveballs. In last week&#8217;s Roto Review we alluded to how that adds value, then this time, he threw <em>over two times as many changeups as curveballs. </em>The Giants have a bunch of left-handed hitters, and the development and confident in the changeup gives Sandchez another weapon to get lefties out. It was mentioned above that the Blue Jays are making it nearly impossible to plan for their starters, and here we have another example. Not only is Sanchez getting that extra tier of velocity into hitters heads and possessing a reverse-platoon pitch, he also has teams planning for him to pitch one way and coming at them completely differently. That&#8217;s how you dominate even when you can&#8217;t throw strikes.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.2 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 75 strikes, 36 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 37 Fourseam Fastballs, 40 Twoseam Fastballs, 9 Changeups, and 16 Curveballs, 9 Cutters, .</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ&#8217;s first eight innings in this game (before tiring a bit in the ninth) were one of the brightest pitching performances from a Jays pitcher over the past few years. He was sharp from the get go, getting through the first six innings with fewer than 12 pitches per frame. He was doing this by pounding the zone, throwing 45 strikes to just 18 balls to that point. He continued his strong pitching through the seventh and eighth before some wildness, somewhat aided by Tom Hallion&#8217;s tight strike zone, almost put a damper on the effort. He almost got the complete game, but John Gibbons brought in closer Roberto Osuna to shut down the late threat by the Giants and preserve the shutout.</p>
<p>If any start this season was going to show that Happ has maybe taken a step beyond the lasting impact from his time with Ray Searage, this was it. Happ went deep into the game, which he never did with the Pirates, and kept his velocity and mechanics through the first eight innings. He continually worked around the outside of the zone and really had his curveball working, particularly against Brandon Belt, who struggled to deal with it all game. Despite his fastball heavy approach, he continually mixed in his other pitches at times when hitters weren&#8217;t expecting them and generated weak contact with 13 groundballs and 2 pop ups to go along with his five strikeouts. It may be repetitive, but once again, a Blue Jays pitcher completely changed up his pitch usage. In last week&#8217;s Rotation Review, this was written about Happ:</p>
<p><em>Batters go in with a scouting report that tells them they&#8217;re going to see a bunch of curves and fourseamers, so Happ throws sinkers and cutters. Then the next time out, he might throw changeups and curveballs. There has been absolutely no consistency, and that makes him tough.</em></p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t quite changeups <em>and</em> curveballs, but Happ dropped that cutter usage right back down to the bottom. You combine that with strike zone command, and this start is what you get.</p>
<p>Normally we try to leave you with a chart, or a graph that shows you what was successful. But sometimes, you just need to see it for yourself. MLB hasn&#8217;t made this video embeddable yet, but you can <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v682297283/torsf-happ-shuts-out-giants-over-8-23-innings" target="_blank">click this link</a>. And since we don&#8217;t want you to leave empty handed, here&#8217;s a teaser:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/HappPenceK.gif" alt="" width="475" height="263" /></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>36.2 IP, 26 H, 8 R, 6 ER, 13 BB, 29 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR. 2-1, 1.47 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
227.0 IP, 193 H, 85 R, 79 ER, 75 BB, 175 K, 5 HBP, 21 HR. 11-6, 3.13 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Somehow, the Blue Jays managed to top last week&#8217;s performance, throwing more innings, yet allowing fewer earned runs. For the second straight turn, there were no weak links in the rotation chain, as even the worst performance (Dickey) still provided seven innings and two earned runs. If the Jays can keep getting anything close to this level of production, they will be extremely tough to beat.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Holding Five Aces</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/06/blue-jays-rotation-review-holding-five-aces/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/06/blue-jays-rotation-review-holding-five-aces/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 May 2016 15:08:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2337</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. Sadly there [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>Sadly there was no rotation review last week, as the Saturday night game messed up a few schedules, but we promise not to miss any more weeks. The last time we looked in on the Jays rotation, Aaron Sanchez had stumbled, but R.A. Dickey had finally made a decent start and J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman continued to be strong. Let&#8217;s see how things went this time.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 66 Strikes, 37 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch mix: 3 Fourseam Fastballs, 52 Sinkers, 4 Changeups, 13 Sliders, 19 Curveballs, 12 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Through the early parts of this season, the constant theme for Stroman starts is that he would make a lot of hitters look foolish, but he would do this not by generating swings and misses or strikeouts, but by getting a lot of weak groundballs. However, this would get him into trouble a lot in the later innings, as a ball here or there would squeek through, and he would leave the game up to the bullpen. Well&#8230;he has left seven men on base for the pen, and all seven have scored. So this time, Stroman decided to take things into his own hands. Pitching eight full innings for the second time this year (both against Tampa Bay), Stroman looked exactly like the ace we all have been hoping he would be. He ruthlessly pounded the bottom of the zone, but more importantly, he also was able to finish batters off once he got to two strikes, punching out nine hitters.</p>
<p>Over the course of this game, Stroman generated 14 swings and misses. His previous season high was nine, also against Tampa Bay. Part of that is simply due to the fact that the Rays tend to be more free-swinging, but the biggest reason is that those are the two games where Marcus Stroman threw the fewest sinkers of the season. In the two Tampa starts, he has thrown 47.9 percent sinkers and 50.4 percent sinkers, respectively. In his other starts, he averages over 60 percent. This is basically the Aaron Sanchez (pre-2016) problem. If your batters can just sit on the sinker, they&#8217;re going to hit it, no matter how good it is. But when you start mixing in more breaking balls, and hitters must wait back, the sinker all of a sudden becomes a swing and miss pitch.</p>
<p>In this outing, Stroman used the curveball way more than he has at any point this season (18.5 percent, with only one other game as high as 12.3 and the rest below seven), which helped him get some early strikes, but he really used his cutter effectively once he got to two strike counts. In previous games, he threw cutters with two strikes to 4.3 percent of hitters. In this game, it was a whopping 27.3 percent. This is a pitch that Stroman should probably use more often, as it has completely opposite movement compared to his sinker. And unlike the curve and the slider, the ball doesn&#8217;t drop. Instead, when hitters are expecting the pitch to dive in (or away if left-handed) or drop out of the zone, he is able to do this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/StromanSliderTBR.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2157" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/StromanSliderTBR.gif" alt="StromanSliderTBR" width="474" height="264" /></a></p>
<p>Yep. That&#8217;ll play.</p>
<p>Hopefully Stroman continues to mix all his pitches, because he has an elite repertoire. Groundballs are nice, but sometimes you need to miss a bat or two, or fourteen.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 66 Strikes, 32 Balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 89 Knuckleballs, 3 Twoseam Fastballs, 6 Fourseam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>Ahh, the magic of a flipped over page on a calendar. I kid of course, as May 2 is hardly different from April 28, but R.A. Dickey&#8217;s April struggles are no secret. Of course, he hasn&#8217;t traditionally been all that good in May either, but he certainly got off to a good start this year.  The Texas Rangers weren&#8217;t coming in hot, but they are a team that still has a lot of very good hitters. It didn&#8217;t matter though, as Dickey completely shut them down. They still managed a few baserunners, but for the most part they had a lot of trouble with the knuckler.</p>
<p>The biggest reason: Dickey was throwing strikes. For the rest of the season, R.A. Dickey has thrown strikes on 61.5 percent of his pitches. In this game 67.3 percent of his pitches went for strikes. In the early starts, he threw 52.5 percent of his pitches in the zone; in this game: 61.2. And perhaps most importantly, Dickey was getting ahead of hitters (see first pitch plot below). I&#8217;ve said it before, but oftentimes the biggest factor for Dickey&#8217;s success is merely his ability to start guys off with a strike. When he is falling behind, batters can wait for that extremely hittable fastball. And when that happens, Dickey gets crushed. In this game he threw first pitch strikes to exactly 2/3 of the batters he faced (18/27).</p>
<p>It may sound way too simple to say &#8220;Dickey throws strikes therefore is Dickey good,&#8221; but it&#8217;s the truth of the knuckleball. Even at its worst, a knuckler is <em>really</em> hard to hit. So when you can throw it in the strike zone, you&#8217;re going to get a lot of weak contact (his groundball rate rose slightly from 44.3 percent to 47.6 percent), and therefore a lot of easy outs.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=285079&amp;game=gid_2016_05_02_texmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=3&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=1&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 58 strikes, 30 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 36 Fourseam Fastballs, 28 Changeups, 10 Curveballs, 14 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off a game in which he threw 118 pitches and was constantly grabbing his shoulder, all eyes were on Estrada, looking to see how he would respond. It certainly didn&#8217;t start well, as Rougned Odor hit the second pitch of the game over the fence for a home run, but that would end up being all the Rangers would get. For the next 18 outs, Estrada was absolutely masterful. He gave up just the solitary run, while also allowing only one more hit and one walk. He would leave the game after only 88 pitches, which was either a concession that he needed the rest, or out of a desire to get Jesse Chavez some work, but it was yet another gem from the man who saved the Blue Jays in 2015.</p>
<p>One of the interesting things about this start is that Estrada didn&#8217;t generate a single infield popup. He <em>did </em>generate a lot of weak flyballs, but usually we see four or five of them fall in the infield. He also didn&#8217;t end up with as many strikeouts, despite getting swings and misses on 14.7 percent of his pitches (league average is 10.5 percent). So on the surface, it doesn&#8217;t seem like a typical Estrada good outing. But in the end he still was the same soft flyball pitcher we have come to expect, and it was all because, once again, he is working up in the zone.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_05_03_texmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s nice to see that Martin is continuing this trend we saw from Navarro, <a title="Marco Estrada Embraces Leadership Role; Ready to Repeat 2015" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/marco-estrada-embraces-his-leadership-role-ready-to-repeat-2015/" target="_blank">as Estrada suggested they would</a>. At some point soon I will be taking an overall look to see their compared usage, but so far, we definitely can&#8217;t complain.</p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 70 strikes, 31 balls</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 21 Fourseam Fastballs, 50 Twoseam Fastballs, 16 Changeups, 14 Curveballs</strong></p>
<p>Things certainly didn&#8217;t start well for the young righthander, as he gave up six hits and three runs in the first two innings of play. At that point, it looked like we might be seeing one of those starts where Sanchez just can&#8217;t get anybody out, but that wasn&#8217;t the case. From innings three to seven, Sanchez was fantastic, giving up just three baserunners the rest of the way, one of whom was erased on a double play.</p>
<p>I said it on <a title="Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 10: Jonah Keri and Wish Lists for Winning Streaks" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/" target="_blank">this week&#8217;s podcast,</a> but this was Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s most impressive start of the season. He didn&#8217;t dominate like he did in Boston, or get a ton of strikeouts like he did in Tampa, but he showed that he can make adjustments and get outs. Against Oakland, everything just snowballed on Sanchez, but in this one, he was able to settle down and beat a team loaded with left-handed hitters. He pounded the zone (69.1 percent strikes. How often do we get to say that?!) and generated a ton of groundballs (63.6 percent of his pitches), giving the Blue Jays time to get back into the game. This is what good pitchers do.</p>
<p>One of the most interesting things about this start is the pitch mix. For much of his major league career, Sanchez has been very much a two pitch pitcher. He had a good curve, which he threw sparingly in relief, and he almost <em>never</em> threw his changeup. Take a look at the totals. Aaron Sanchez threw <em>sixteen</em> changeups in this game. This is hugely important for two reasons. The first, and most obvious, is that it gives him a weapon against lefties, as the changeup is a reverse-platoon split pitch. The second, and perhaps more important reason is that it allows Sanchez to pitch in three velocity tiers. His fastball is usually in the upper 90s, and his curveball sits in the upper 70s, but the changeup comes in right in the middle, sitting at about 88 mph.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/speed.php-pitchSel=592717&amp;game=gid_2016_05_04_texmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>By forcing hitters to focus on three speeds coming out of the pitcher&#8217;s hand as opposed to two, even poor fastballs can generate easy outs, and Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s fastball is anything but poor. The development of the changeup also allows him to get outs <em>without</em> his best fastball, which is something he didn&#8217;t have against Oakland. This is a trend to watch, as it could really push Aaron Sanchez further up the developmental ladder.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 59 strikes, 31 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 29 Fourseam Fastballs, 36 Sinkers, 13 Cutters, 5 Changeups, and 7 Curveballs.</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;s almost getting silly at this point.</p>
<p>Showing that Pittsburgh is no fluke (<a title="J.A. Not Happy With The Status Quo" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/j-a-not-happy-with-status-quo/" target="_blank">despite a vastly different approach</a>), J.A. Happ just keeps putting up dominant outing after dominant outing. This time out, his victim was the Texas Rangers, who had all kinds of trouble with the tall lefty. Happ actually gave up a run in the top of the first inning, but it only scored as a result of a broken bat single and a wild pitch. The Rangers just couldn&#8217;t square up anything Happ was throwing, and the game turned into a laugher (the Blue Jays won 12-2).</p>
<p>This game was particularly interesting, as for the first time all year, Happ threw more sinkers than fourseam fastballs. This was a man who threw almost exclusively fourseamers with Pittsburgh, and now puts up an elite start where he throws just 32 percent of them. He also threw far fewer offspeed pitches in this game, relying on the cutter (slutter) to generate outs off his fastball instead of the curve and change.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-71.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-2340" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-71.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>If anything, it is this variability in his pitch usage that could be what makes Happ so tough to hit. Batters go in with a scouting report that tells them they&#8217;re going to see a bunch of curves and fourseamers, so Happ throws sinkers and cutters. Then the next time out, he might throw changeups and curveballs. There has been absolutely no consistency, and that makes him tough.</p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>34.1 IP, 24 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 9 BB, 25 K, 0 HBP, 3 HR. 2-0, 1.83 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
190.1 IP, 167 H, 77 R, 73 ER, 62 BB, 145 K, 5 HBP, 19 HR. 9-5, 3.45 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>I almost felt sorry for opposing batters this week. Almost. The starting rotation continues to be an incredible strength for the Jays, and this was probably their best week yet. They averaged just under seven innings per start (and could have been over if Estrada or Happ had been allowed to continue, as they easily could have), and put up a 1.83 ERA. They were only 2-0 because of some awful Blue Jays hitting (Thursday&#8217;s game notwithstanding), but if they keep doing this, the Jays will be <em>VERY </em> tough to stop.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: The Return of Drew</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/blue-jays-rotation-review-the-return-of-drew/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Apr 2016 17:24:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1984</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The last [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The last stroll through the Blue Jays rotation included continued dominance from Sanchez, Stroman, and Happ, another stumble from R.A. Dickey, and a mediocre turn from Estrada, all against the rough and tumble AL East. This week&#8217;s slate included the final AL East series for a while, a visit from the Oakland A&#8217;s and a return of an old friend.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 67 Strikes, 34 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch mix: 3 Fourseam Fastballs, 55 Sinkers, 18 Changeups, 16 Sliders, 5 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t quite the dominance that Stroman showed over the Yankees in his last outing, but once again Toronto&#8217;s nominal ace showed why he is being counted on to lead this pitching staff in 2016. Facing a tough Orioles lineup, Stroman allowed just seven baserunners in seven innings, and was only hurt by the long ball, with home runs coming off the bats of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, both of whom will do that on occasion. The second of those blasts came with nobody out in the seventh and a runner on, cutting the Blue Jays lead from 4-1 to 4-3. It was actually the third time this season in four outings that Stroman has allowed runs in his final inning of work, twice by allowing home runs. Still, it was a very strong performance, and nobody can ask for more than he gave.</p>
<p>One thing that may be sticking out to you so far is how few punch outs Stroman is getting in 2016. His strikeout rate on the season is just 13.3 percent, which is <em>well</em> below league average. Instead, it has been groundballs and weak contact that have been carrying the Duke grad through the day. Against the Orioles, Stroman managed to generate ground balls on 52.2 percent of balls in play. It wasn&#8217;t quite the crazy ratio he showed against the Yankees (73.9 percent), but still well above the league norm. He also used a much greater variety in his pitches this time out, throwing a bunch of changeups and sliders, but very few curves or cutters. He also brought out a few fourseam fastballs, which is something he has been avoiding since the season opener against the Rays. It&#8217;s a good pitch for swings and misses if used more often, but has more value as one to generate popups from people expecting his sinker. After all, the four-seamer drops five inches fewer on average than Stroman&#8217;s sinker.</p>
<p>In the end, Stroman succeeded because he pounded the strike zone (only three three-ball counts), kept the ball down and changed speeds with a variety of pitches. If a pitcher can do two of those things, he usually has a chance to win. Stroman did all three.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/speed.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_04_19_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP 0 HR, 58 Strikes, 36 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 83 Knuckleballs, 10 Twoseam Fastballs, 1 Changeup</strong></p>
<p>When this game started, it looked like it was going to be yet another R.A. Dickey April Disaster™. The first four hitters went groundball single, rocket double, walk, rocket single. That left runners on the corners with nobody out, and two runs already in. But Dickey settled down quickly, getting a double play grounder (which scored another run) and a strikeout to end the inning. From that point on, Dickey only allowed three more baserunners, two of whom were immediately erased on double plays. In the end, he had put up his first &#8220;Quality Start&#8221; of the season, against an offense that had been on fire in the early part of the season.</p>
<p>Oftentimes the biggest factor for Dickey&#8217;s success is merely his ability to get ahead of hitters. When he is falling behind, batters can sit on a knuckler in a specific spot, or if they&#8217;re way ahead, the extremely hittable fastball. When that happens, Dickey gets crushed. That wasn&#8217;t the case this time out though, as after the shaky first (3/6 first pitch strikes), Dickey started off 75 percent of the hitters he faced with a pitch in the zone.</p>
<p>The other noteworthy thing is that Dickey threw a changeup in this game. As <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/changing-things-up-r-a-dickey-change-up/" target="_blank">I have mentioned in the past</a>, Dickey has a very good changeup. As a knuckleballer, it&#8217;s something he doesn&#8217;t need to break out too many times in a game, but he should go to it more often when he&#8217;s behind in the count if only to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. Now, he only threw the one in this game, but if he starts breaking it out more often, we could see a lot more of this:</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://gifs.houseofthebluebird.com/wp-content/uploads/DickeyChange1.gif" alt="" width="478" height="270" /></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 62 strikes, 42 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 44 Fourseam Fastballs, 30 Changeups, 8 Curveballs, 15 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>This was certainly an unusual performance from Marco Estrada. After all, it&#8217;s not often you see a player put up a line that sees him leave the game with a higher WHIP (2.00) than ERA (1.80). It was definitely a struggle, as last year&#8217;s standout pitcher threw 104 pitches in just five innings, with just 59.6 percent of them going for strikes. He gave up a lot of hits and quite a few walks, which meant there were baserunners on pretty much the whole game. The reason only one of them actually came around to score is that Estrada kept on getting huge strikeouts in key spots. He finished the game with nine, which leaves him with 20 Ks on the season in just 18 innings pitched. He was always something of a strikeout pitcher in Milwaukee, so it&#8217;s nice to see this ability returning in the early going.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s something I&#8217;m going to harp on every time I write one of these, but Estrada&#8217;s biggest success comes when he is working up in the zone with his fastball, and this game was a perfect example of that. Three of the four hits on fastballs came on pitches low in the zone, but for the most part he worked hard up and soft down, keeping the Orioles hitters off balance enough to get those big strikeouts when he needed them.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=462136&amp;game=gid_2016_04_21_tormlb_balmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 53 strikes, 32 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 8 Fourseam Fastballs, 48 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, 15 Curveballs, 4 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>The last time I did one of these I said it was getting hard to come up with superlatives to describe Aaron Sanchez so far this season. Well&#8230;he made it a little easier this time, having easily his worst start of the season, and probably the worst of his career.</p>
<p>Coming home after two very tough losses to the Orioles, the Jays were hoping that Sanchez could continue his dominant run and get them back in the win column. Instead, he got ripped around the ballpark, giving up a career high 10 hits and allowing more runs than innings pitched for the first time in his career as a starter. It was also the second shortest outing of his career, behind only his first career start which came against the Orioles last year. To put it simply, he was really bad. He wasn&#8217;t helped much by his defense, as Josh Donaldson missed a would-be double play ball in the second inning (which led to a runner being thrown out at home, so he still got one out), which was then followed by a groundout. Instead of being out of the inning, Sanchez still had an out to go and then promptly served up a three-run homer to Chris Coghlan. Overall though, this loss was on Sanchez, and he knows it.</p>
<p>If someone wanted to figure out what went wrong, they might first notice that Sanchez threw a lot more changeups than his last start when he dominated the Red Sox. In fact, this led Greg Wisniewski to suggest that Sanchez <a title="Aaron Sanchez is a Two Pitch Pitcher, And it Works" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/aaron-sanchez-is-a-two-pitch-pitcher-and-it-works/" target="_blank">can succeed as two-pitch pitcher</a> who relies heavily on his fastball. Interestingly though, nine of the ten A&#8217;s hits came on Sanchez fastballs, with the other coming on a cutter. And he was throwing some of the curveballs and changeups for strikes, so it wasn&#8217;t as though people were able to just sit back and wait for the fastball.</p>
<p>The biggest reason for the struggles is that Sanchez&#8217; fastball just wasn&#8217;t good in this game. It was the slowest it has been all season by both average velocity (94.34) and max velocity (96.59). He was also getting less movement on it, with over an inch less horizontal run than his previous low (7.82&#8243; vs 8.83&#8243;), and nearly 2.5 inches off of his season high (10.28&#8243;). As a pitcher who relies on a big time fastball to generate the vast majority of his outs, it&#8217;s tough to succeed when that fastball isn&#8217;t there. Hopefully the extra rest for his next start helps bring back the successful version of the heater.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1985" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-3.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (3)" width="750" height="262" /></a></p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 59 strikes, 34 balls.</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 31 Fourseam Fastballs, 23 Sinkers, 13 Cutters, 9 Changeups, and 16 Curveballs.</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ continues to make Tony LaCava look good, showing that the Jays were wise to invest in him this season. For the second straight start, Happ went seven innings, something he accomplished just six times all of last season. He gave up a season high three runs, but if that&#8217;s something you can say, you know someone has been pitching well.</p>
<p>The results were somewhat interesting, as despite throwing 70.3 percent first pitch strikes (which is excellent), Happ struck out only one batter. However, he also generated groundballs at a greater than 50 percent clip (52.2) for the second time this season. This is an interesting development for a pitcher who came into the season with a 38.8 percent groundball rate for his career. In fact, he used those grounders to generate three double plays, two of which preceded run-scoring singles.</p>
<p>As mentioned, Happ has done this twice, the other time coming against the New York Yankees in his second outing of the season. So logically, we should see if there was anything in common between those two starts:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1986" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-4.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (4)" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the two outings where Happ generated a high percentage of grounders, he used the curveball a <em>lot</em> more often than in the two outings where he was getting flyballs. This is a trend that should be interesting to watch, as the Jays have one of the best defensive infields in baseball (if not <em>the </em>best), and it could help him get out of a lot of jams.</p>
<h3>Drew Hutchison</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5K, 0 HBP, 2 HR, 55 strikes, 40 balls.</strong><br />
<strong>Pitch Mix: 54 Fourseam Fastballs, 6 Twoseam Fastballs, 10 Changeups, and 25 Sliders.</strong></p>
<p>In an effort to give the rest of the rotation a little bit of rest, the Blue Jays called up a former face for a spot start.</p>
<p>Drew Hutchison hadn&#8217;t exactly been dazzling in Buffalo, but Toronto hadn&#8217;t had an off day since the start of the Yankees series and needed the spot start. The overall results of the outing were pretty decent, as Hutch allowed only the two runs and struck out five. Sure, he also walked three batters and both runs were scored on home run balls, but as spot starts go, the Jays couldn&#8217;t have asked for more.</p>
<p>Of course, this wasn&#8217;t just any spot start. It was also last year&#8217;s opening day starter trying to show that he belongs in the big leagues. So while the totals were good, the actual process was mixed:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The good: Hutch is throwing hard and his slider looks WAY better. <br />The bad: He still has absolutely no fastball command.</p>
<p>&mdash; Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/724302164554833920">April 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>A big part of the problem for Drew Hutchison last year was that he simply lost the slider that had earned him so much praise at the end of 2014. He was throwing it harder and it was flattening out (see image below). In his first outing this year, both of those problems seemed to be corrected; he was throwing it a bit slower and getting much more drop. In addition, he was able to throw it for strikes (68 percent of pitches) which helped him get whiffs (misses on 25 percent of swings).</p>
<p>It wasn&#8217;t the only problem though. Hutchison also struggled with his fastball command in 2015, leaving a bunch of them up in the zone. He got more swings and misses, but also gave up a lot of hard contact. It was much of the same on Sunday, as Hutchison was all over the place with his fastball, and very rarely down in the zone. He&#8217;s going to need to correct this if he wants to return to the major leagues full time.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1987" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-5.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (5)" width="750" height="252" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>35.0 IP, 38 H, 18 R, 18 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, 2 HBP, 6 HR. 2-2, 4.63 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
123.0 IP, 114 H, 54 R, 50 ER, 41 BB, 95 K, 4 HBP, 12 HR. 9-5, 3.66 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>With the exception of a dreadful start from Aaron Sanchez, the Blue Jays have to be pretty pleased with how the rotation performed this time through. No other starter gave up more than three runs, and a solid start from R.A. Dickey must have been particularly nice to see. Next week&#8217;s games come against the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays, both of whom possess weak hitting lineups.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Beasts vs the East</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/blue-jays-rotation-review-beasts-vs-the-east/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/blue-jays-rotation-review-beasts-vs-the-east/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2016 17:07:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1687</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. After an [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>After an up-and-down second trip through the rotation, the Jays starters didn&#8217;t exactly get a respite, as they continue their run through the gauntlet that is their early AL East schedule. This week&#8217;s slate included the series finale against the New York Yankees, and a four game set in Boston against the rival Red Sox. Let&#8217;s see how they did.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 0 HR, 67 Strikes, 39 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch mix: 64 Sinkers, 8 Changeups, 14 Sliders, 13 Curveballs, 7 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>Coming off a lackluster outing against the Boston Red Sox in the the Toronto home opener, the Blue Jays and their faithful were looking for a rebound from their nominal ace. As you can see from that line above, Stroman delivered in spades. It may not have looked like that early on though. After cruising through three innings, Stroman ran into some trouble in the fourth. With the score still knotted at 0-0, the Toronto righty proceeded to give up two hits, a walk, a hit by pitch, and a wild pitch to stake the Yankees to a two run lead. That would be it for the Bronx Bombers though. After that point, Stroman completely shut them down. Literally. They didn&#8217;t get another baserunner the rest of the game.</p>
<p>There isn&#8217;t exactly a huge secret to how this one went. Stroman&#8217;s groundout to flyout ratio in this game was 17-2. 17-2! When you toss in the hits, and other balls in play, Stroman&#8217;s overall groundball rate for the game was a whopping 73.9%. For reference, last year&#8217;s MLB leader was Brett Anderson at 66.3% for the season. What makes this even more impressive is that the Yankees have a couple of extreme flyball hitters (Beltran, and McCann) and two other big bats (Arod and Teixeira) who are flyball/groundball neutral. Typically when flyball hitters meet groundball pitchers (or vice versa), the bat and ball meet in the middle and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/94781376/v523054683/textor-gm5-bautista-hammers-goahead-threerun-shot" target="_blank">exciting things happen</a>. That wasn&#8217;t the case in this game. Stroman did a decent job getting ahead of hitters (63.3 percent first pitch strikes), then just pounded the bottom of the zone with his sinker. He sprinkled in enough breaking balls to mess with the hitters&#8217; timing, and the Yankees just kept driving the ball into the rug. When Stroman is pitching like that, there aren&#8217;t a lot of teams that are going to beat him.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_04_14_nyamlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=2&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP 0 HR, 62 Strikes, 44 Balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 100 Knuckleballs, 6 Two-Seam Fastballs</strong></p>
<p>For the third straight outing, R.A. Dickey failed to register an out in the sixth inning, this time bowing out with just four and two thirds innings under his belt. It was much of the same from the 41 year old knuckleballer, as he just couldn&#8217;t command the pitch, walking four while also leaving a number of knuckleballs up in the zone. His line still probably could have been better had Josh Thole been able to corral a third strike offering to Hanley Ramirez in the first. Ramirez instead reached first base, and then Travis Shaw smoked a two-run double (David Ortiz was on base as well) to put the Blue Jays in a three run hole. However, that&#8217;s just one of the many pitfalls of being a knuckleball pitcher; getting the batter to swing and miss is just part of the equation.</p>
<p>This was just one of those days where Dickey had no command of his knuckler. He fell behind a bunch of hitters (only 45.8 percent first pitch strikes), and left a lot of balls out over the plate. As a result, the Red Sox were able to do some damage. On the plus side, Dickey&#8217;s velocity rebounded a little from the drop he showed in his second start (up from an average of 74.6 mph to 75.7 mph). It&#8217;s still not where he wants to be, as he is most successful in the 77-80 range, but it&#8217;s a step in the right direction.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1688" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><strong>Line: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 64 strikes, 32 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 38 Fourseam Fastballs, 28 Changeups, 16, Curveballs, 13 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>It would have been tough for Estrada to repeat the dominance he exhibited in his season debut, but overall he still put up another very solid performance. It started off the same way, with a Mookie Betts strikeout, but this time Estrada ran into trouble in the third inning. With two men on, Estrada served up a low fastball to Xander Bogaerts that he deposited into the seats atop the Green Monster for a three-run homer. Remember what I said above about flyball/groundball clashes? Bogaerts is a heavy groundball guy, Estrada is a heavy flyball guy&#8230;ball meets in middle for a line drive. The Red Sox would add another run in the inning to make it 4-0 game. However, it wasn&#8217;t as bad as it looked. Had it not been for a Josh Donaldson misplay on Dustin Pedroia&#8217;s grounder, Boston likely only scores two runs in instead of four (and possibly zero, though it would have been a tough double play). For the rest of the game, Estrada was great, allowing only a few singles and a solitary walk.</p>
<p>Part of the reason for Estrada&#8217;s mediocre outing was that he wasn&#8217;t pitching in areas that are conducive to his success. <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">As has been established in the past</a> Estrada&#8217;s best success comes when he&#8217;s using that good &#8220;rising&#8221; fastball up in the zone. Unfortunately, that wasn&#8217;t the case against Boston. Despite Estrada&#8217;s heater fighting gravity at even greater rates than the past (see below), most of his work in this game was in the lower part of the strike zone. Many of the outs were still on balls up, but of the eight hits he allowed &#8211; including the aforementioned home run &#8211; six were below the belt.</p>
<p>All that said, with a less than optimal pitch mix, Estrada still pitched a solid game and continues to provide hope for another excellent season.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.jpeg"><img class="wp-image-1689 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 66 strikes, 39 balls</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 19 Fourseam Fastballs, 68 Sinkers, 1 Changeups, 12 Curveballs, 5 Cutters</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;s getting pretty hard to keep coming up with superlatives to describe games started by Aaron Sanchez. Fresh off a three-hit masterpiece against the Yankees, the fireballing righty decided to one up himself by carrying a no-hitter into the fifth that was ended by a broken bat flare. In the end, Sanchez gave up just two hits against Boston, the flare and a groundball up the middle. He walked four, but two of those seemed like &#8220;unintentional intentional walks&#8221; to David Oritz (he seemed to be heavily pitching around the dangerous hitter). Overall, the young hurler was in command from start to finish, striking out seven and inducing groundballs on 56.3 percent of balls in play (actually his lowest mark of the season).</p>
<p>In one of the funnier managerial decisions thus far, John Farrell did Sanchez a huge favour by inserting Chris Young into the lineup instead of Brock Holt. A career .224/.292/.410 hitter against righties, Young entered this game 0/4 on the season with three strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Sanchez has a career .145/.215/.173 line against right handed batters. Young went hitless and struck out another three times. It probably wouldn&#8217;t have mattered who was hitting though, as Sanchez was just simply dominant.</p>
<p>A big part of Sanchez&#8217;s success in this game was his ability to get ahead. He threw strikes to 63 percent of hitters, and finished 20 of the 27 batters he faced either even or ahead in the count. Sanchez also picked his velocity back up from his previous start (95.8 mph average sinker vs 94.4), and threw his hardest pitch of the season at 98.7 mph (we&#8217;ll come back to that one). He had a bit of trouble getting the curveball down and out of the zone, but he was able to throw a bunch of them for strikes (66.7 percent), which helped set up his dominant fastball by keeping the Red Sox hitters guessing. This was evident by the four strikeouts looking.</p>
<p>I want to highlight one of those called strikeouts because it ended with the most impressive pitch I&#8217;ve seen Sanchez throw in his entire career. A big part of his trouble against left-handed batters has been <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/profile.php?player=592717&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=game&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=count&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=02/27/2014&amp;endDate=01/05/2016&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=L" target="_blank">his inability to throw strikes inside with any consistency</a>. Far too often he would either miss down and in, or the ball would leak back out over the plate away. Don&#8217;t tell that to Travis Shaw. After missing outside with a fastball to start the plate appearance, Sanchez threw an inside sinker for strike one, a curveball in the zone for strike two, then dropped this monstrosity.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/SanchezShawK.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1686" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/SanchezShawK.gif" alt="SanchezShawK" width="475" height="260" /></a></p>
<p>Remember how I said Aaron Sanchez threw his hardest pitch of the season? That&#8217;s it right there. A 98.7 mph comeback fastball with 9.6 inches of horizontal movement, <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/numlocation.php-pitchSel=592717&amp;game=gid_2016_04_17_tormlb_bosmlb_1&amp;batterX=16&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=11&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" target="_blank">on the black</a>. Barry Bonds probably couldn&#8217;t have hit that pitch.</p>
<p>When Aaron Sanchez is doing that, he&#8217;s just untouchable. Thankfully for Jays fans, there are no signs of him stopping any time soon.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p><strong>Line: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 59 strikes, 34 balls.</strong><br />
<strong> Pitch Mix: 34 Fourseam Fastballs, 24 Sinkers, 21 Cutters, 7 Changeups and 7 Curveballs.</strong></p>
<p>In his first start of the season, J.A. Happ gave up two runs in six innings of work. In his second outing, he gave up <em>one</em> in six innings of work. During Monday&#8217;s Patriot&#8217;s Day matinee, the tall lefty gave up one run in <em>seven</em> innings pitched. At this rate, J.A. Happ is going to start throwing complete games by early May.</p>
<p>Simply put, J.A. Happ was outstanding in his outing against Boston. It must be rough for Red Sox fans to see your team win the first two games of a four game set, then run into Sanchez and Happ throwing like that. It must be even more frustrating for Red Sox <em>hitters</em> when they get ahead 1-0 in 54 percent of their plate appearances and manage just five baserunners in seven innings. They couldn&#8217;t get anything going against the born-again Blue Jay, as he kept them off balance for the entire start. In the end, the Bosox hit only three balls that even made it to the warning track (which is very shallow in left field).</p>
<p>In similar fashion to his outing against the Yankees, Happ was <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=457918&amp;game=gid_2016_04_18_tormlb_bosmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" target="_blank">all over the strike zone</a>, making it very hard for the Red Sox hitters to get comfortable. He and Russell Martin also did a tremendous job using subtle speed changes between the fastballs and changeups, then dropping in the slow curve when they really wanted to mess up the batter&#8217;s timing. This is how you pitch successfully even without top notch stuff.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/speed.php-pitchSel=457918&amp;game=gid_2016_04_18_tormlb_bosmlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week<br />
</strong>32.2 IP, 23 H, 12 R, 10 ER, 12 BB, 20 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR. 3-2, 2.76 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
88.0 IP, 76 H, 36 R, 32 ER, 29 BB, 70 K, 2 HBP, 6 HR. 7-3, 3.27 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Despite yet another stumble from R.A. Dickey, and a solid, but not great start from Marco Estrada, the rotation once again did a tremendous job. As a group, they averaged over six innings per start, and held two excellent offenses down for the better part of five games. The most encouraging thing is that the guys who have been the most consistent are the ones for whom there was expected to be the most variability.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Marco&#8217;s Back</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/blue-jays-rotation-review-marcos-back/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/blue-jays-rotation-review-marcos-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2016 17:01:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1483</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read all past Rotation Reviews here. The first [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Since they say starting pitching wins championships, each time through the rotation we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score. You can read <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">all past Rotation Reviews here</a>.</em></p>
<p>The first trip through the four-man version of the Blue Jays starting rotation saw a lot of really encouraging performances. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez were lights out, and J.A. Happ was very solid in his turn on the bump. Only R.A. Dickey struggled, and even so, put up a passable performance. Week two was a little bit of a different story, with a little bit more inconsistency in the outings.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 56 Strikes, 46 Balls<br />
Pitch mix: 57 Sinkers, 14 Changeups, 10 Sliders, 9 Cutters, and 2 Curveballs</p>
<p>What a difference a week can make. From a gem of a start on opening day to a stinker in the home opener. Given that the Boston Red Sox offense is slightly more daunting than the Rays, a small step back was to be expected, but this outing wasn&#8217;t even close. The key to Stroman’s performance against Tampa Bay was his supreme command of the fringes of the strike zone, combined with his ability to get ahead of hitters. Both of those things abandoned him against Boston. In particular, Stroman struggled to get ahead of hitters, starting only 37.5 percent of batters off with a strike. His overall strike rate fell from 78.7 percent against Tampa to 58.8 percent against Boston. Boston isn&#8217;t as aggressive as Tampa, but Stroman was also just having trouble locating.</p>
<p>Also, because he was falling behind so often during the game, Stroman was forced to resort to throwing more pitches in the bigger parts of the zone. This creates more hittable pitches just to get back into the count, leading to harder contact. As you can see in the image below, there are not nearly as many pitches that were hitting the edges of the plate. Walks and fat pitches&#8230;that&#8217;s usually a bad combination.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=573186&amp;game=gid_2016_04_08_bosmlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>On a positive side, Stroman had a very good changeup in this outing, registering a couple of strikeouts and four missed swings with the offering. This could come in handy with all the lefty mashers in the American League East, starting with his very next time out against the Yankees. If Stroman can continue to get ahead of batters early to let his pitch variety and ability to hit the fringes of the strike zone play up, he will be successful.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 HBP 0 HR, 60 Strikes, 41 Balls<br />
Pitch Mix: 95 Knuckleballs, 3 Four-Seam Fastballs, 2 Two-Seam Fastballs</p>
<p>To look at R.A. Dickey’s line from his first start at the Rogers Centre in 2016, you would have thought Brandon Morrow had tossed on Dickey’s jersey and a fake beard and taken the mound. Five innings of two walk, nine strikeout ball looks great, particular in terms of FIP, but seven runs (six earned) isn&#8217;t exactly ideal. Once you factor in the 8 hits allowed and generally hard (40% of balls in play were line drives) contact, it was clearly a pretty lacklustre outing. Like Stroman, Dickey struggled to get ahead of hitters after doing a good job of it in his 2016 debut. Unlike Stroman though, Dickey struggled to find the zone<em> at all</em> for most of the game.</p>
<p>Dickey wasn&#8217;t helped by his defense, though. He made an error himself on a pickoff to second base, and Josh Thole was having all kinds of problems handling the knuckleball behind the plate.</p>
<p>Last time out, Dickey’s knuckleball velocity was up a tick from his 2015 April, but that wasn’t the case against the Red Sox, as he dropped down to 75.2 mph for the game. His pitch mix also changed quite drastically; his fastball usage dropped from 13.4 percent in his first start to just 5 percent against Boston. Dickey struggled in both games as he looks for consistency from the least consistent pitch in existence. When Dickey is getting ahead of hitters he is much more effective at generating weak contact and generally eating up innings. It will be something to watch for in start number three of the season.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-1485" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (11)" width="750" height="254" /></a></p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p>Line: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 62 strikes, 29 balls<br />
Pitch Mix: 37 Fourseam Fastballs, 27 Changeups, 16 Cutters, and 11 Curveballs</p>
<p>The last time Jays fans saw Marco Estrada in a major league game, he was walking off the mound to an enormous ovation after dominating the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS. Armed with a new contract, Estrada missed a bunch of time in spring training with a sore back and actually started the season on the disabled list. Well, if there were any lingering concerns over Estrada&#8217;s health, I think he put them to bed nicely.</p>
<p>Estrada was dominant from the first batter (a strikeout of Mookie Betts) until the last (a similar fate for Jackie Bradley Jr.). He had even more &#8220;rise&#8221; on his fastball than last year, at 13.6 inches, and combined it with a strong cutter and his world-class changeup to keep the Red Sox hitters off balance for the entire game. In classic Estrada fashion, he induced six popups, as hitters simply have trouble adjusting to a fastball that stays up at that rate. He also worked ahead of hitters with consistency, throwing first pitch strikes to two-thirds of hitters that stepped into the box.</p>
<p>It was interesting to see how Estrada was going to work in this game, as all of his success last year came from throwing to Dioner Navarro, who is now in Chicago. However, Russell Martin and Pete Walker <a title="Marco Estrada Embraces Leadership Role; Ready to Repeat 2015" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/marco-estrada-embraces-his-leadership-role-ready-to-repeat-2015/" target="_blank">made a point of watching video</a> from last year&#8217;s plans of attack. Joshua will be tracking this as the season goes on (with monthly updates), but so far it looks like some of the lessons were taken to heart. Estrada mixed fastballs at the top of the zone with the other offspeed pitches to generate a lot of soft flyball contact, which is something that Navarro stressed in their outings last year.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The opposition was hopeless against Marco Estrada today: <a href="https://t.co/HxW4kzHMB3">https://t.co/HxW4kzHMB3</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OurMoment?src=hash">#OurMoment</a> <a href="https://t.co/2jDL5wWHFh">pic.twitter.com/2jDL5wWHFh</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/719272038318284800">April 10, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p>Line: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 54 strikes, 43 balls<br />
Pitch Mix: 11 Fourseam Fastballs, 60 Sinkers, 6 Changeups, 20 Curveballs</p>
<p>All eyes were on Sanchez in this start to see if he could repeat the dominance he showed in his first start against Tampa Bay. While he wasn&#8217;t quite as strong, it was still an overall very solid outing for the young righty. Throughout his career, Sanchez has had his struggles against left-handed batters, and the New York Yankees are absolutely loaded with them. In this game they set a lineup that included four lefties and three switch-hitters, so Sanchez was working on the wrong side of the platoon an awful lot. The parade of lefty batters makes it interesting that Sanchez threw so many fewer changeups in this outing (6) compared to his start in Tampa (15), instead going to the curveball as his out offspeed pitch. Whatever the reason for that decision, it seemed to work as the Yankees did very little damage all game.</p>
<p>Sanchez struggled a bit with his command, especially in the second inning (he walked two), but he <a title="How Bad Umpiring and Mental Mistakes Cost the Blue Jays" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/13/how-bad-umpiring-and-mental-mistakes-cost-the-blue-jays/" target="_blank">really wasn&#8217;t helped by the home plate umpire</a>. Hoye was really struggling with pitches on the first base side of home plate for both teams, but this particularly hurt Sanchez in that second inning. Both walks came as a result of missed strike calls inside to left-handed batters.</p>
<p><img class="size-full wp-image-1420 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/SanchezCurveBM041216.gif" alt="SanchezCurveBM041216" width="475" height="262" /></p>
<p>Overall though, Sanchez was able to get key strikes when he needed to, despite not throwing nearly as hard in this outing as he was against Tampa; his average fastball velocity was 95.0 mph compared to 96.6 mph last time out. However, he did a good job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone to avoid damage, with the only real exception being the home run ball to Brian McCann in the sixth. That pitch was almost completely center cut, and McCann did what you&#8217;re supposed to do with those.</p>
<p>Overall, it was another very encouraging outing for the young fireballer. Sanchez showed that he can succeed against a lefty-dominated lineup, even without his best command or his best stuff.</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 63 strikes, 38 balls.<br />
Pitch Mix: 39 Fourseam Fastballs, 25 Sinkers, 13 Cutters, 5 Changeups and 19 Curveballs.</p>
<p>For the second straight outing, Happ has made it look like whatever he learned from Ray Searage in Pittsburgh wasn&#8217;t lost as soon as he left the Steel City. The tall lefty kept the Yankees off-balance for pretty much the entire game. He used the entire strike zone (see plot below) to keep the Yankees hitters from honing in on one particular location. This was a problem for Happ in Seattle, as he would work almost exclusively away, especially to right-handed batters. That wasn&#8217;t the case here though, as Martin made a point of crowding some of the powerful righties that Joe Girardi trotted out there.</p>
<p>Happ just had really good command in this game, and that&#8217;s how he was able to carve up a lineup loaded with righties (and four switch-hitters). He got ahead of hitters, throwing first pitch strikes to 18 of the 26 batters he faced, and threw strikes on 62.3 percent of his pitches overall. By throwing first pitch strikes, the hitters were forced to be on the defensive, which led to a lot of ugly swings and softly hit balls. In fact, the only time that Happ was ever really in any sort of trouble was the fifth inning when Ronald Torreyes and Austin Romine started the inning by going double-single to put runners on the corners with nobody out. However, Happ was able to use the high fastball to get Ellsbury to pop up, then induced a weak grounder from from Aaron Hicks, before getting an easy fly ball to right from Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees scored their lone run (against Happ), but he did an incredible job minimizing the damage.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=457918&amp;game=gid_2016_04_13_nyamlb_tormlb_1&amp;batterX=&amp;innings=yyyyyyyyy&amp;sp_type=1&amp;s_type=&amp;league=mlb&amp;pnf=&amp;zlpo=&amp;cache=1.gif" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></p>
<p>If Happ can keep pitching like this, the Jays are going to get a lot of value out of their $36M investment, and more importantly, be in great position for a repeat of the division title.</p>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week</strong><br />
29.1 IP, 29 H, 15 R, 13 ER, 13 BB, 30 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR. 2-1, 4.02 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
55.1 IP, 53 H, 24 R, 22 ER, 17 BB, 50 K, 1 HBP, 5 HR. 4-1, 3.58 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it was a pretty decent turn for the rotation as Estrada, Sanchez, and Happ were all very good, but Stroman and Dickey both need to be better than they showed this time out. They&#8217;ll get quick chances for redemption though, as Stroman faces the Yankees on Thursday (April 14) and Dickey gets to exact his revenge on the Red Sox in Boston on Friday.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Rotation Review: Week One Wonders</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/blue-jays-rotation-review-week-one-wonders/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/blue-jays-rotation-review-week-one-wonders/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Apr 2016 10:56:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rotation Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1182</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They say that pitching wins championships. We&#8217;re not quite sure who &#8220;they&#8221; are, and we think the Toronto bats could probably disagree, but who are we to argue? So here at BP Toronto we&#8217;ve decided to make starting pitching a focus, so that when the Jays finally raise that World Series banner, we can look [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They say that pitching wins championships. We&#8217;re not quite sure who &#8220;they&#8221; are, and we think the Toronto bats could probably disagree, but who are we to argue? So here at BP Toronto we&#8217;ve decided to make starting pitching a focus, so that when the Jays finally raise that World Series banner, we can look back and say &#8220;here&#8217;s how they got there.&#8221; We started with this over at Blue Jays Plus, and now we&#8217;re launching our first Rotation Review for Baseball Prospectus.</p>
<p>Every time through the rotation, we&#8217;re going to break down each individual start to see what the pitchers did well and what they didn&#8217;t, with an attempt to go a little bit deeper than just the box score.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HBP, 1 HR, 74 Strikes, 24 Balls<br />
Pitch mix: 47 Sinkers,  16 Sliders, 14 Cutters, 13 4 Seamers, 7 Changeups, and 1 Curve</p>
<p>After an inspiring recovery, from a torn ACL to being a key member of the Blue Jays playoff success, Marcus Stroman has sky high expectations amongst fans. It may be one year delayed, but Marcus Stroman finally made his first opening day start for the Blue Jays and he did not disappoint.</p>
<p>Using his usual mix of quality pitches and supreme command, Stroman pitched deep into the game without much hard contact made against him. For Stroman, his dominance started with the sinker and his ability to throw it for strikes. Pitching is so much easier when you are ahead of hitters and Stroman was ahead all night. 27 of the 32 hitters Stroman faced ended up behind in the count, and only four plate appearances ended with Stroman chasing in the count. Even if you count two run 9th inning against him, the Blue Jays ace threw an absolute gem as he pounded the lower part of the zone with his sinker. In the end 62 of his 98 pitches were down in the zone, which led to 17 ground balls and a serious lack of rallies from the Rays.</p>
<p>While his velocity was down almost a half a MPH from 2015, it doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about. Pitchers are still getting their arms back into game shape, and that only comes with more starts. Following up a performance like this one will be tough to do, but perhaps Stroman can build off of his game one success and keep his velocity a bit deeper into the start.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Stroman-plot.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-1204 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Stroman-plot.gif" alt="Stroman plot" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<h4></h4>
<h3><strong><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 HBP 1 HR, 54 Strikes, 28 Balls<br />
Pitch Mix: 71 Knuckleballs, 11 Two-Seam Fastballs</p>
<p>R.A. Dickey has always been somewhat of a disappointment for Blue Jays fans. Coming off his Cy Young season, he had a high acquisition cost, leading to sky high expectations. Still, he has always been a very valuable starter overall by eating innings with league average run prevention. However, he has often had issues at the start of each year. In each season since joining the Blue Jays, Dickey has seen his ERA rise for the month of April; it was 4.15 in 2013, 5.23 in 2014, and 5.40 last year.</p>
<p>In his first start this season, it was a bit more of the same from Dickey, as he struggled from the outset against Tampa. The Rays had runners on against the knuckleball specialist in the first, second, fifth and sixth innings (he faced one batter before being removed). Dickey was probably lucky to escape with only three runs allowed. He escaped a first and third, one out situation in the first inning, and a first and second nobody out situation in the fifth. In those two innings Dickey&#8217;s strike rate fell to below 60 percent (53 and 55, respectively). It&#8217;s often pretty simple for Dickey: when he throws strikes, he gets outs, and when he falls behind, he is forced to throw fastballs hurt him.</p>
<p>Still, there were some encouraging signs from the 41 year-old. Dickey’s knuckler was a little harder in his first start than it was last April, averaging 76.2 MPH, up from 75.2 mph in 2015. He also threw more strikes than he has in any April since joining the Blue Jays, at 65.9% against Tampa. From 2013 to 2015, Dickey&#8217;s numbers in that category ranged from 62.6% to 62.9%. It&#8217;s also worth noting that Dickey didn&#8217;t throw a single fourseam fastball in this game, per Brooks Baseball. In his career, he has mostly split between two and fourseam pitches when in trouble, with the occasional changeup against a left-handed batter, but yesterday it was all knucklers and sinkers. Given how much damage hitters tend to do when Dickey goes away from the knuckleball, it&#8217;s good to see him aiming for a bit more movement to at least give himself a chance &#8211; he get about an inch of extra run and two inches of &#8220;drop&#8221; on the sinker compared to the fourseam.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooks-Dickey.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1183" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Brooks-Dickey.gif" alt="Brooks Dickey" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></h3>
<p>Line: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 HBP, 0 HR, 64 strikes, 27 balls<br />
Pitch Mix: 14 Fourseam Fastballs, 49 Sinkers, 15 Changeups, 1 Cutter, 12 Curveballs</p>
<p>Without a doubt, the pitcher facing the most scrutiny coming into the season was Aaron Sanchez. He put on a lot of weight in the offseason, then got locked into a serious rotation battle with Gavin Floyd &#8211; one that lasted the entire spring. The young righty emerged victorious in the end, and made his season debut Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays. There were a lot of people who had doubted his ability to pitch as a starter before the outing, but I&#8217;m betting a lot of them have been converted.</p>
<p>Simply put, Sanchez was awesome. In fact, he was so good that it&#8217;s actually quite difficult to decide what was most encouraging from this performance. The first thing that probably sticks out is that Sanchez didn&#8217;t walk a single batter, a feat which he accomplished only once all last year. He has had control issues throughout his career, but showed vast improvement this spring. It has only been one start, but it was nice to see it carry into the regular season.</p>
<p>The other thing that stood out in this start was his strikeout totals. Sanchez was a big time strikeout pitcher in the lower minors, but as he has risen through the system and eventually reached the major leagues, his ability to generate swings and misses has gone away. In his career, Sanchez has a swing and miss rate of just over 18 percent. That all changed on Tuesday, as Tampa missed on a whopping 32.7 percent of their swings. To get an idea of how good that is, last year Francisco Liriano led the major leagues with a swing and miss rate of 33.5 percent, and Clayton Kershaw was third at 32.6 percent. If he can keep up anything close to that kind of bat-missing ability, he&#8217;s going to be very tough to hit.</p>
<p>The biggest reason that Sanchez got more whiffs was that he was able to mix his pitches up very well, which kept the Rays off balance for the entire outing. All of his offerings were working well, and the Rays hitters just couldn&#8217;t adjust. For a graphic representation of how good Sanchez was last night, see below:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I&#39;m going to quantify stuff for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> pitchers over at <a href="https://twitter.com/BProToronto">@BProToronto</a>. Here&#39;s a sample from the first 3 games. <a href="https://t.co/8QNHxGIR52">pic.twitter.com/8QNHxGIR52</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Mike Sonne (@DrMikeSonne) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrMikeSonne/status/717865165090213890">April 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>That&#8217;s the <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/22/" target="_blank">&#8220;STUFF&#8221; metric</a> that has been developed by Dr. Mike Sonne (and will soon start appearing on this site regularly). Click that link for a more accurate primer, but basically, the metric uses velocity and movement variables to assign value to a pitcher&#8217;s &#8216;stuff&#8217;. Aaron Sanchez&#8217; rating from yesterday&#8217;s start would have put him in the top three in all of baseball last year, which matches up nicely with the strikeout rates. In the end, this was about as good as anybody could have possibly hoped for. If Aaron Sanchez is even close to this good going forward, the Jays are in for a real treat.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></strong></h3>
<p>Line: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP, 1 HR, 54 strikes, 35 balls.<br />
Pitch Mix: 31 4 Seamers, 25 Sinkers, 18 Cutters, 9 Changeups and 5 Curveballs.</p>
<p>Coming into the season, J.A. Happ was possibly the largest question mark in the Blue Jays rotation. After being shipped off Pittsburgh Pirates in the middle of last season, J.A. Happ had a career resurgence, posting a 1.85 ERA over his last 63+ innings with the Bucs. Over the past few years Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has helped revitalize the careers of several pitchers, including the likes of A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano. However, unlike Liriano and Burnett, Happ has never been a groundball pitcher, which seems to be a part of the Pirates success with their pet pitcher projects.</p>
<p>Instead, what Happ did do was increase his fastball usage even further to around 87%. Mind you this 87% is spread across 3 pitches, his cutter, four-seamer, and sinker. Combined with a far more consistent release point, this led to more strikes for Happ, and better command around the zone. Many of these aspects were apparent in Happ’s first start with the Blue Jays in 2016. He started off 17 of 26 batters with first pitch strikes and maintained his delivery well. The strike-zone was poor and extremely inconsistent for both pitchers and that somewhat hindered just how effective Happ was. Happ did a very good job of keeping the ball along the black, with very few pitches over the heart of the plate.</p>
<p>The one pitch that stood out in particular for Happ&#8217;s first start was his cutter. He threw 18, and four were whiffed on, including a beautiful one thrown on the outside corner to strike out Tim Beckham. Some may argue that his cutter is more of a slutter (slider/cutter), but no matter what you call it, it is a truly effective compliment to his sinker. Happ held his velocity well and should hold up if he goes deeper into his starts. It will be interesting to see if he can build off of this start and go a bit deeper into the game next time out, but overall his start was extremely impressive and a terrific building block to start the season on.</p>
<h4><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Happ-Velo.gif"><img class=" wp-image-1203 size-full aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Happ-Velo.gif" alt="Happ Velo" width="600" height="400" /></a></h4>
<p><strong>Rotation Stats for the Week</strong><br />
26.0 IP, 24 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 4 BB, 20 K, 1 HBP, 4 HR. 2-0, 3.12 ERA</p>
<p><strong>YTD Stats</strong><br />
26.0 IP, 24 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 4 BB, 20 K, 1 HBP, 4 HR. 2-0, 3.12 ERA</p>
<p><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></p>
<p>Overall, it&#8217;s hard to be disappointed with the performance of the temporary four-man rotation. Sanchez and Stroman were excellent, Happ was very solid, and Dickey wasn&#8217;t half bad himself.</p>
<p>That concludes the first rotation review of the season. Stay tuned for the next one which will drop some time in the middle of next week. If there is anything else you would like to see, or something you&#8217;d like us to focus on, let us know in the comments and we&#8217;ll do our best to incorporate it next time around.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>All pitch charts courtesy of Brooks Baseball</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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