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	<title>Toronto &#187; Mike Sonne</title>
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		<title>The Most Heavily Used Blue Jay Pitchers in the PITCHf/x Era</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/20/the-busiest-blue-jay-pitchers-in-the-pitchfx-era/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/20/the-busiest-blue-jay-pitchers-in-the-pitchfx-era/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 11:43:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AJ Burnett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roy Halladay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Workload isn&#8217;t as easily defined as the number of games, innings, or pitches a pitcher throws. It is an interaction of all of these things &#8211; and to summarize them all, I came up with the metric &#8220;Fatigue Units&#8221;. Well, I came up with the Metric&#8230; Jenn Smith came up with the name. In the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Workload isn&#8217;t as easily defined as the number of games, innings, or pitches a pitcher throws. It is an interaction of all of these things &#8211; and to summarize them all, I came up with the metric &#8220;Fatigue Units&#8221;. Well, I came up with the Metric&#8230; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/baseballjenn/">Jenn Smith</a> came up with the name. In the PitchFX era, we can calculate Fatigue Units by querying databases and factoring in velocity, days of rest, pitch counts, and pace between pitches. Historically, who had the highest fatigue unit workloads for the Toronto Blue Jays?</p>
<h2>Single Season Workloads</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Rank</th>
<th>Fatigue Units</th>
<th>Season</th>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Inning Apperances</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>4 + Days Rest</th>
<th>1 &#8211; 3 Days Rest</th>
<th>0 Days Rest</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>28.75</td>
<td>2008</td>
<td>A.J. Burnett</td>
<td>230</td>
<td>3540</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>27.01</td>
<td>2008</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>250</td>
<td>3413</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>25.7</td>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>3345</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>25.25</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>92</td>
<td>1255</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>25.09</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>3386</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>24.42</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>224</td>
<td>3277</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>23.85</td>
<td>2010</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>3209</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>23.31</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>207</td>
<td>3106</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>22.63</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>1198</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>22.47</td>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Henderson Alvarez</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>2857</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>22.45</td>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>3060</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Brandon Morrow</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>3108</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>22.39</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>3210</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Esmil Rogers</td>
<td>151</td>
<td>2258</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>22.01</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Brandon League</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>1109</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>21.89</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Liam Hendriks</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>1101</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>21.53</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Jesse Carlson</td>
<td>91</td>
<td>1133</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>21.53</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>3299</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>21.51</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>1084</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>21.47</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>185</td>
<td>2979</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>21.42</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>231</td>
<td>3503</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>21.14</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>227</td>
<td>3387</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>21.13</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>3051</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>21.01</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>1037</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>20.96</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>229</td>
<td>3508</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26</td>
<td>20.79</td>
<td>2010</td>
<td>Kevin Gregg</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>1079</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27</td>
<td>20.6</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>3082</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>20.56</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>211</td>
<td>3200</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>20.25</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>1211</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>20.14</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>Brian Tallet</td>
<td>171</td>
<td>2661</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It should surprise no one to see Roy Halladay&#8217;s name appear twice in the top 5 on this list &#8211; even though he was only with the Jays for two years during this time period. He was <em>the</em> go-to guy. What is slightly surprising is not seeing him in the #1 Spot.</p>
<h3>#1 &#8211; 2008 &#8211; AJ Burnett, #2 &#8211; 2008 &#8211; Roy Halladay</h3>
<p>AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay had absolutely amazing 2008&#8217;s, with both pitchers in hot pursuit of 20 wins all season long. How didn&#8217;t this team do better?! Oh right&#8230;one 20 home run hitter. Joe Inglett playing in over 100 games&#8230; I&#8217;ll just leave it there. AJ appeared in 230 innings, completing 221.1 innings, and throwing a whopping 3540 pitches in 35 games (34 starts). While Doc appeared in one fewer game, he appeared in 20 more innings than Burnett that season. The difference in workload stems mostly from how AJ got hitters out &#8211; striking out 231 hitters, and walking 81 batters. Halladay only struck out 206 while walking 39. Take a look at those numbers again; those are insane.</p>
<h3>#3 &#8211; 2011 &#8211; Ricky Romero</h3>
<p>*** Cut to Mike clutching his Ricky Romero jersey in his basement while a single tear rolls down his cheek ***</p>
<p>Oh, what might have been for Ricky Romero. His knees betrayed him and his career plummeted shortly after. But in 2011, he was a workhorse &#8211; and the Jays rotation looked primed for the future. Romero appeared in 233 innings, completing a total of 225 that season, while throwing 3345 pitches.</p>
<h3>#4 &#8211; 2016 &#8211; Roberto Osuna</h3>
<p>This is where things start to get interesting on the workload list. Osuna didn&#8217;t appear in as many innings as the guys up above, but it was the fact he appeared on back to back days 25 times that really drove his workload up. 25 times&#8230;the next closest for the Blue Jays in this time period is 19. The trips to the post season contributed to this number, undoubtedly, but Osuna&#8217;s isolation in a bullpen that struggled to get hitters out has left him on an island in Blue Jay land. The Jays do need to get a few more reliable arms to reduce Roberto&#8217;s huge workloads, year after year.</p>
<h3>#8 &#8211; 2016 &#8211; Aaron Sanchez</h3>
<p>This was the year where Sanchez was the pinnacle of controversy in the Toronto market &#8211; should he move to the bullpen? Should he be shut down for the season? In the end, neither of these actions happened and Sanchez pitched his way to an ERA title and the playoffs. Now, 2017 was a different story&#8230; Sanchez missed the vast majority of the year with various finger and blister issues. Keep in mind, high FUs are tied to an increase in Tommy John Surgery in subsequent seasons &#8211; not blisters. Hopefully 2017 was a blip on the radar of a successful career.</p>
<h2>Pitch Tracking Era Workload Leaders</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Rank</th>
<th>FUs</th>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Starts</th>
<th>Inning Appearances</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>4 + Days Rest</th>
<th>1 &#8211; 3 Days Rest</th>
<th>0 Days Rest</th>
<th>Seasons</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>115.95</td>
<td>Brett Cecil</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>770</td>
<td>10521</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>184</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>94.61</td>
<td>Ricky Romero</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>834</td>
<td>12755</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>88.34</td>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>423</td>
<td>4570</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>217</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>80.97</td>
<td>R.A. Dickey</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>868</td>
<td>13126</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>78.6</td>
<td>Casey Janssen</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>5253</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>72.52</td>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>682</td>
<td>10718</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>68.91</td>
<td>Jason Frasor</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>327</td>
<td>4457</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>66.37</td>
<td>Brandon Morrow</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>563</td>
<td>9114</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>64.6</td>
<td>Shawn Camp</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>328</td>
<td>3788</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>155</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10</td>
<td>64.38</td>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>617</td>
<td>9156</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>62.01</td>
<td>Mark Buehrle</td>
<td>97</td>
<td>628</td>
<td>9209</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>61.23</td>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>256</td>
<td>3412</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>58.16</td>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>607</td>
<td>9571</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>55.45</td>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>397</td>
<td>5735</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>52.09</td>
<td>Roy Halladay</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>489</td>
<td>6799</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>16</td>
<td>49.01</td>
<td>Scott Downs</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>2650</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>17</td>
<td>49.01</td>
<td>Brian Tallet</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>334</td>
<td>4911</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>48.48</td>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>430</td>
<td>6747</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>19</td>
<td>45.74</td>
<td>Jesse Carlson</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>204</td>
<td>2151</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20</td>
<td>42.96</td>
<td>Steve Delabar</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>181</td>
<td>2592</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21</td>
<td>40.3</td>
<td>Dustin McGowan</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>272</td>
<td>3639</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>37.36</td>
<td>Jesse Litsch</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>326</td>
<td>4626</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>35.62</td>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>226</td>
<td>3144</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24</td>
<td>33.79</td>
<td>Shaun Marcum</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>357</td>
<td>5247</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>31.92</td>
<td>Todd Redmond</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>2772</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26</td>
<td>31.8</td>
<td>Brandon League</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>1588</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>27</td>
<td>31.3</td>
<td>Ryan Tepera</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>167</td>
<td>2067</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>28</td>
<td>29.97</td>
<td>Henderson Alvarez</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>260</td>
<td>3833</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>29.87</td>
<td>Carlos Villanueva</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>246</td>
<td>3741</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>30</td>
<td>29.24</td>
<td>Luis Perez</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>146</td>
<td>1842</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3> #1 &#8211; Brett Cecil</h3>
<p>The results often fluctuated between great and&#8230; not so great, but it&#8217;s tough to deny that Brett Cecil was a big part of the Blue Jays pitching staff during his eight years here. Cecil had 74 starts during this time with the Blue Jays and appeared in 770 innings. When he left the rotation for good, he seemed to find more success &#8211; including his long scoreless streak during the magical 2015 run.</p>
<h3>#3 &#8211; Aaron Loup</h3>
<p>Much like Squints, Loup has had his ups and down with the Blue Jays &#8211; but he has always been just on the cusp of being an excellent reliever. During his six seasons with the Blue Jays, no other pitcher has appeared on back to back days more than Loup &#8211; averaging just over 10 per year.</p>
<h3>#5 &#8211; Casey Janssen</h3>
<p>Janssen was the only consistently effective reliever in the Toronto &#8216;pen before Roberto Osuna came along and made that role cool. Janssen managed to close 90 games for the Jays &#8211; even while missing the entire 2008 season with a torn labrum. Thats not an injury that is easy for a pitcher to return from &#8211; so the fact he was able to put up these high workloads, be effective, and consistently answer the manager&#8217;s call is a true testament to Janssen&#8217;s toughness.</p>
<h3>#10 &#8211; Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p>A Blue Jays list just isn&#8217;t complete unless you talk about the Stro Show. Marcus is 10th in workload in the era starting in 2008 &#8211; also known as &#8220;when Stroman was a high school student who didn&#8217;t even have a clothing brand.&#8221; These numbers are slightly misleading too &#8211; sure, he appeared in 4 seasons, but one was the injury shortened ACL year. In those 4 seasons, Stro has played an important role in the Jays post season runs and done this without an injury that would raise any concerns about his durability (the ACL is a fluke). Stroman is a workhorse now and for the Blue Jays future.</p>
<p>Height doesn&#8217;t measure heart, but Fatigue Units do measure Workload!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The 2017 Stuffies! Volume 2 &#8211; The Best Stuff in Baseball</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/26/the-2017-stuffies-volume-2-the-best-stuff-in-baseball/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/26/the-2017-stuffies-volume-2-the-best-stuff-in-baseball/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Oct 2017 10:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stroman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to the Stuffies! It has been a thrilling ride through the first few rounds of the playoffs, but to really increase your appetite for the World Series, Nick and I are here to help you understand which pitchers in baseball had the best Stuff. Off the hop &#8211; a bit of a lesson [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome back to the Stuffies! It has been a thrilling ride through the first few rounds of the playoffs, but to really increase your appetite for the World Series, Nick and I are here to help you understand which pitchers in baseball had the best Stuff.</p>
<p>Off the hop &#8211; a bit of a lesson on the Stuff metric used here; instead of average STUFF for teams, we&#8217;re using &#8220;Weighted STUFF&#8221;. Essentially, it&#8217;s each pitcher&#8217;s stuff, multiplied by the % of pitches they threw with respect to their rotation or bullpen mates. This was also repeated for all of the inputs that went into the STUFF metric &#8211; velocity, change, and break distance. For the individual pitchers, they had to throw 1000 pitches in the season to be included in the awards competition.</p>
<h2>Best Team Stuff &#8211; Starters</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/weighted-starters.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-13990" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/weighted-starters.png" alt="weighted starters" width="700" height="559" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Dodgers</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><span style="color: #0000ff">ND &#8211; </span>It’s no surprise to see the Dodgers’ starting rotation (all 9 of them) up here at the top of the stuff list this season. Much to the frustration of the rest of baseball, the Dodgers used their deep pockets to trot out talented starter after talented starter this season. It’s not hard to take home a Stuffy when your 4-7 starters are Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda. But in a true embarrassment of riches, it’s not just depth that makes the Dodgers great – Kershaw, Darvish and Rich Hill aren’t a bad top three either. Money might not be able to buy you happiness, but it can definitely buy you a lot of great starting pitching.</span></p>
<h3>Pirates</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> Gerrit Cole? Stud. Tyler Glasnow? Beast. Jamieson Taillon? Monster. The Pirates have the flame throwers to make a formidable rotation&#8230; but youth and inexperience has held them back from really taking the next step. There&#8217;s no mystery to the madness here: Look at what the Pirates lead the league in &#8211; a 94.47 mph weighted fastball velocity. From their starters&#8230; You better be ready to swing early!</p>
<h3><strong>Mets</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><span style="color: #0000ff">ND -</span> Everyone knows that the Mets have a talented, young rotation full of great pitchers. What nobody knows is what the hell the Mets training staff are doing that makes these poor guys get hurt so damn often. Even if Matt Harvey might have (allegedly) partied his way onto the disabled list, that doesn’t explain their inability to keep Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Seth Lugo reasonably healthy over the past season. We all know pitchers get hurt but geez…..</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">This is the part of the Stuffies where the award winner starts uncontrollably sobbing on stage and everyone in the audience is left kind of looking at each other, really awkwardly, not knowing what to do with their hands. It was fine when there were some sniffles, but now we&#8217;re getting the big snot bubbles and it sounds like the person is choking. Please Mickey Callaway &#8211; find a way to make this rotation everything that it could be.</span></span></p>
<h3>(dis)Honorable Mention &#8211; Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> It certainly didn&#8217;t help the Jays that the guy on their roster with the best STUFF was blistered up all season, but the Jays ranked 24th in total Stuff. Stroman (to be discussed later) lead the team in Stuff out of the rotation and swingman Joe Biagini also had great STUFF, while Brett Anderson chimed in some some good STUFF near the end of the season &#8211; but the Metric didn&#8217;t favour soft-tossing Marco Estrada, fastball dominant J.A. Happ, or the slew of other jabronis that took their turn getting smashed throughout this 2017 season.</p>
<h2><strong>Best Team Stuff &#8211; Bullpens</strong></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/weighted-relievers.png"><img class=" wp-image-13989 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/weighted-relievers.png" alt="weighted relievers" width="700" height="559" /></a></p>
<h3><span style="color: #000000">Red Sox</span></h3>
<p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> John Farrell had the best STUFF in the world to work with out of his bullpen and that still couldn&#8217;t get him to the ALCS. It also couldn&#8217;t get him his job for the 2018 season&#8230; but I swear that doesn&#8217;t come from a place of bitterness and resentment. The Red Sox threw absolute gas out of their bullpen, but they also had a lot of consistency &#8211; both Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, and Matt Barnes put in great seasons and appeared in a lot of Red Sox innings &#8211; partially due to a starting rotation that had its question marks. All of those guys look to be ready to put in great seasons in 2018, so there&#8217;s no reason to think the Red Sox STUFF is going anywhere.<br />
</span></p>
<h3>Yankees</h3>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">ND &#8211; </span>Sometime in July, Joe Girardi must have paid Brian Cashman a visit and suggested that the Yankees would have a better chance of winning if their opponents weren’t able to make contact after the fifth inning. Cashman then spent the 2017 trade deadline assembling a super bullpen that sits number two on the reliever stuff list this season. Teams usually talk about a two or three-headed monster at the end of a game but the Yankees bullpen eats those for breakfast.</p>
<h3><span style="color: #0000ff"><span style="color: #000000">(Dis)Honorable Mention &#8211; Toronto Blue Jays</span></span></h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">Dear Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins &#8211; Stuff is good for bullpens. Like, it&#8217;s really good. It helps strike batters out and it helps keep the ball out of the 3rd deck. Can we please get some more for the bullpen in 2018? I&#8217;m not saying that Stuff is the only way to get hitters out&#8230; but it acts like an insurance policy against bad control. Like the kind a certain father of the Jays Bullpen had in the early part of the season (#NEVERFORGETGRILLI2016). </span></span></p>
<h3>(SuperDis)Honorable Mention &#8211; Baltimore OriLOLs</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> Ha! Showalter you clown! Just like in the AL East Standings, the Jays jumped ahead of the Orioles at the last minute to stay out of the basement! The Orioles, while having some elite bullpen arms in Zach Britton and Brad Brach, don&#8217;t fare that well in the STUFF category because they rely on velocity alone &#8211; a bunch of these guys don&#8217;t have secondary pitches to rely on.</p>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">ND &#8211; <span style="color: #000000"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">One of the biggest surprises of the Stuffies this season is seeing Baltimore take home the Stuffy for worst reliever stuff. The Baltimore bullpen is considered one of the better pens in the American League. While many teams across the league would love to have Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Darren O’Day at the back of their pens, all of those groundballs don’t impress the stuffy judging committee. Or Jose Bautista.<br />
</span></strong></span></span></p>
<h2>Best Stuff &#8211; Starters</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/starters-ranked.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-13988" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/starters-ranked.png" alt="starters ranked" width="700" height="290" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Clayton Kershaw</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> Any time you create a pitching metric that is supposed to represent success at the MLB level and Clayton Kershaw comes out on top &#8211; you feel pretty good that the metric is accurate. Kershaw takes home the 2017 crown with an absolutely absurd Stuff level of 2.1. Kershaw has great fastball velocity &#8211; almost 93 mph&#8230; but it&#8217;s the change in speeds and the distance between the pitches that truly sets him apart. Go and watch a bunch of PitchingNinja gifs about Kershaw now &#8211; you deserve it.</p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400"><span style="color: #0000ff">ND -</span> Water is also wet. Sun rises in the east. Despite spending much of the second half of the season on the disabled list, Kershaw once again takes home the stuffy for best starting pitcher. Do you really need a Ph.D and a complicated multi-variable formula to know Kersh is the best starter in baseball? What are they teaching these people in grad school?</span></strong></p>
<h3>Gerrit Cole</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> There&#8217;s absolute hot nasty fire flames being thrown when former first overall pick Gerrit Cole is on the mound. His season was a rocky one &#8211; a lot of injury concerns, paired with an underperforming Pirates team, and you get the end result of Cole&#8217;s career worst 4.26 ERA. There&#8217;s a ton of upside for young Gerrit &#8211; he&#8217;s only entering his age 27 season.</p>
<h3>Jesse Hahn</h3>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">ND &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">Injuries and inconsistency torched Hahn’s 2017 season but the stuff-o-meter seems to really like him. Paired with pitching in the spacious O.co Coliseum and we might have a 2018 fantasy baseball sleeper on our hands….if you’re into that sort of thing.</span></span></p>
<h3>Honorable Mention &#8211; Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">The StroShow put up his best STUFF season in 2017 and continued doing what he does best &#8211; being completely consistent. His 2017 Stuff was elevated from 2016, with nearly a 2&#8243; increase in pitch separation and a slight increase in his fastball velocity. Earlier this year, Stro was talking with The Pitching Ninja on Twitter and started chiming in on how nasty Corey Knebel&#8217;s curveball was. The two exchanged pleasantries, but what would it look like if Stro added the Knebel Knuckle Curve? Well, it would nearly double his stuff &#8211; increasing separation for both break and velocity. That&#8217;s the the type of pitch that would really change things for Stro, and may get those strikeout numbers climbing.</span></span></p>
<h2>Best Stuff &#8211; Relievers</h2>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/relievers-ranked.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-13987" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/relievers-ranked.png" alt="relievers ranked" width="700" height="285" /></a></h3>
<h3>Joe Kelly</h3>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400"><span style="color: #0000ff">ND -</span> One of these things is not like the others. Kelly finds himself atop the reliever stuffy list without piling up the K’s (his K/9 was a very pedestrian 8.07) that so many of the other top relievers do. All grit, moxey, and tattoos, Kelly’s fastball velo keeps him atop the stuff leaderboards despite middle of the road results.</span></strong></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">At this point, people start to regurgitate their lunch whenever someone tells them Joe Kelly has great STUFF. But are people objectively quantifying it? Usually not! So, suck on that haters. Full disclosure &#8211; Joe Kelly seems like he might be a bit of a dork, and those are my people. </span></span></p>
<h3>Dellin Betances</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS &#8211; </span><span style="color: #000000">That Yankees bullpen is filled with absolute nasty STUFF &#8211; the only reason Chapman isn&#8217;t on this list is because of his injuries this season; he just never crossed that 1000 pitch threshold. But you know who did? Dellin Betances. Betances pairs an absolutely next level fastball with huge pitch separation. His Stuff is legendary and his strikeout rate matches. One thing to watch for &#8211; there&#8217;s no one who has had a higher workload since 2012 than Betances. By the time his huge free agency contract signing comes up, the Yankees may have bled him dry. More reason to hate them, I guess.</span></p>
<p>ND &#8211; This year&#8217;s judging committee didn&#8217;t put too much weight in being able to control the stuff each pitcher unleashes, because if they did, Betances might not be taking home a Stuffy. The big reliever walked 44 batters in 59 innings. That&#8217;s not ideal, but when you&#8217;re as nasty as Betances, you can afford to miss a little more often than not.</p>
<h3>Craig Kimbrel</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> Do you like pitchers who throw gas but also look like a weird bird before they do it? Craig Kimbrel is the guy for you, my friend. Not much else to say here &#8211; Kimbrel is one of the best in the game and he throws some of the nastiest junk in baseball.</p>
<h3>Honorable Mention &#8211; Ryan Tepera</h3>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000">MS -</span> Tepera is not talked about enough. Maybe he is? But not enough by me. Relievers have a very hard job &#8211; they have to go into games on short rest, get out the best hitters, and forget about bad results that happened in the recent past. When I looked at workload, Tepera was in the top 10 of the entire MLB. His Stuff sits at 32nd overall for relievers who threw 1000 pitches this season &#8211; and it&#8217;s his giant fastball that is pretty much the only contributor to that. Great work, Ryan &#8211; let&#8217;s keep it going in 2018.</p>
<h2>The Wrap Up</h2>
<p>From an MLB wide perspective, Stuff has never been better than it was in 2017. Velocity has its pros (striking fools out) and cons (ouch), but boy is it fun to watch and write about. On behalf of my friend and colleague Nick, thank you for reading about STUFF! It has been a pleasure once again. Let&#8217;s hope the Jays can give us some more STUFF to look at in 2018 &#8211; looking at you, Connor Greene!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The 2017 Stuffies! Volume 1 &#8211; Rookies of the Year, and Not So Stuffies</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/18/the-2017-stuffies-volume-1-rookies-of-the-year-and-not-so-stuffies/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Oct 2017 10:53:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Stuffies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13900</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Good evening everyone! With the regular season complete and us all having a lot more stress free time on our hands this postseason, we&#8217;re proud to bring you the 2017 Stuffy awards! I&#8217;ll be your co-host, Mike Sonne. I&#8217;m proud to have alongside me, Canada&#8217;s second favourite bass playing baseball fan, Nick Dika! (Sorry, Geddy [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good evening everyone! With the regular season complete and us all having a lot more stress free time on our hands this postseason, we&#8217;re proud to bring you the 2017 Stuffy awards! I&#8217;ll be your co-host, Mike Sonne. I&#8217;m proud to have alongside me, Canada&#8217;s second favourite bass playing baseball fan, Nick Dika! (Sorry, Geddy Lee was busy&#8230; and he won&#8217;t return my calls and sent a restraining order&#8230;weird).</p>
<p>Like <a title="The Stuffies! 2016 – Stuff Rookies of the Year" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/12/the-stuffies-2016-stuff-rookies-of-the-year/" target="_blank">last year</a>, we&#8217;re going to break this down in two parts &#8211; part 1 &#8211; we have our rookies of the year, along with the &#8220;not so Stuffies&#8221;. In part 2, the team awards for the best Stuff, and the pitchers with the best Stuff in the MLB.</p>
<p>Without further ado, Nick, let&#8217;s start the show with the Stuff Rookies of the Year.</p>
<h2>Rookies of the Year</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/Stuffy-ROY.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13902" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/Stuffy-ROY.png" alt="Stuffy ROY" width="800" height="205" /></a></p>
<h4>Walker Buehler</h4>
<p><span style="color: #993300">Nick Dika &#8211; </span>Ugh. Really Dodgers? You have the best rookie pitcher too? The Dodgers are proving how truly horrifying it can be when a team with deep pockets simultaneously focuses on building a deep and talented farm system. Seeing Buehler gas 98 out of the Dodgers’ pen makes me want to contract the Rays immediately.</p>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">Mike Sonne &#8211; </span>Beuhler is a monster. That velocity on the fastball, but also the velocity on the slider, is ELITE. Then he pairs it with 19&#8243; of separation between the arsenal of pitches. That&#8217;s nearly 5&#8243; more than the league average. PLUS, he was named after a very famous Texas Ranger (the good kind, not the pant peeing kind).</p>
<h4>Dovydas Neverauskas</h4>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">MS &#8211; </span>Lithuania&#8217;s first MLB player is a beast of a man, probably harnessing his velocity from his rage at watching Jonas Valanciunas&#8217; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccNbR9kclgk" target="_blank">Itty Bitty Baller commercials</a>. A lot like Walker Buehler, this is a pitcher with insane slider velocity and well above average fastball velocity. For those of you counting at home, that&#8217;s two legitimate monsters the Pirates now have for Stuff &#8211; Felipe Rivero, and Neverauskas. Oh&#8230; and that Gerrit Cole guy isn&#8217;t too bad either.</p>
<p><strong><em>Honorable Starter Mention</em></strong></p>
<h4>Nick Pivetta</h4>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">MS -</span> In science, whenever we develop a tool, we need to establish its validity. That means, is this tool measuring what it&#8217;s really supposed to be measuring? In my baseball science work, my main source of validation comes from Eno Sarris agreeing with me.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Nick Pivetta and Jesse Hahn: I do not understand why you haven’t seen better results. <a href="https://t.co/IWgByoIb6K">https://t.co/IWgByoIb6K</a></p>
<p>— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) <a href="https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/914982422260834305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>So yeah, there it is. Poor Nick &#8211; hopefully brighter days are coming for you my man! I wrote an article on Rotographs last week, looking at <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/when-good-stuff-goes-bad/" target="_blank">how pitchers with good stuff can have bad results</a>. Nothing jumps out with Pivetta, but it looks like he&#8217;s not getting many calls on the black and he&#8217;s keeping his pitches in the zone more frequently than other starting pitchers. Keep an eye on this guy for your upcoming fantasy seasons.</p>
<h2>The Not So Stuffies</h2>
<p>Here at the Stuffies, we prefer style over substance. Sure, you can get guys out with an 89 mph, but we prefer our pitchers to get their 98 mph fastball put into the upper deck (then claim they have a live arm, tons of potential and over draft them in fantasy next year). Who didn&#8217;t have the right stuff this year? <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/stuffy-worst.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13905" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/stuffy-worst.png" alt="stuffy worst" width="800" height="240" /></a></p>
<h4>Kyle Hendricks</h4>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff">MS &#8211; <span style="color: #000000">You know, back at the start of June, when Kyle Hendricks&#8217; sky was falling and he was getting shelled, it looked a lot like hitters finally found the professor&#8217;s kryptonite. 86 mph fastballs don&#8217;t normally play up (unless paired with a knuckle ball). Yet, here we are &#8211; the Cubs are in the NLCS, and Hendricks is throwing filth like this:</span> </span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Kyle Hendricks, Crazy Fastball Movement (4 Pitch K/4 FBs/Isolated). <a href="https://t.co/wnyAE9Xk3o">pic.twitter.com/wnyAE9Xk3o</a></p>
<p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/916649365170802688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>So, you do you, wild man. Sometimes it&#8217;s the metrics who are wrong.</p>
<h4><strong>Wade LeBlanc</strong></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><span style="color: #993300">ND -</span> LeBlanc is actually a French word for “zero stuff”. But let’s not be too hard on the guy. We’d all swing through his cement mixer curveballs and his 87 mph fastballs. It’s just that no one in the major leagues (or triple-A) would.</span></p>
<h4><strong>Vance Worley</strong></h4>
<p><span style="color: #993300">ND -</span> While the “Vanimal” may have done something nasty to earn himself the nickname, his stuff in 2017 wasn’t nasty in the least. This season, Vance Worley was a walking bullpen game waiting to happen. In the twelve starts he made for the Marlins, he was only able to make it through five innings three times. With an average fastball velocity under 90 mph and not much in the way of breaking stuff, his signature sports goggles might actually be for his own protection rather than enhancing his vision.</p>
<p>***Orchestra music starts up, giant hook appears at the side of the stage***</p>
<p>Looks like we&#8217;re cutting into <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13742" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam&#8217;s 19th watch</a> of The Wire &#8211; we&#8217;ll be back soon with the best team stuff in the MLB!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Toronto Blue Jays Stuff Report &#8211; Volume 2, Issue 6</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2017 14:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics. Starting Pitchers The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13071" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starters-Table-1024x184.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700" height="126" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13079" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png" alt="Starter Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning blow outs (looking at you, Frankie) have had their ups and downs this season. Marco Estrada has an interesting relationship with the Stuff Metric &#8211; when he throws his Curveball, things look a lot better (due to an increased separation between pitches). His Stuff is never going to be elite &#8211; not when his fastball sits nearly a full standard deviation below league average, but when he doesn&#8217;t throw the curve at all, his Stuff falls completely off a cliff. His season started out with a lot of variability, then hit a declining phase &#8211; but after the All Star break &#8211; the Stuff has looked a lot more consistent.</p>
<p>Stroman has had some very consistent Stuff &#8211; a coefficient of variation on the season of 60%. While this is high with respect to his peers, he has the least amount of variability on the Blue Jays staff (amongst starters who have appeared in at least 15 weeks). From an injury perspective, lower variability in Stuff on a weekly basis is linked to reduced injury chances which obviously is a point in Stroman&#8217;s favour. On the flip side, Happ and Estrada have some of the most variability in their Stuff in the entire MLB.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13069" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Relievers-Table-1024x154.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="700" height="105" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13072" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff-1024x743.png" alt="Reliever Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>Well now, this doesn&#8217;t look good at all. Last year, the Blue Jays had elite Stuff relievers in both Joe Biagini and Roberto Osuna. This year, Osuna has had an up and down year with his Stuff and has hovered right below league average Stuff (0.4). The Twitterverse started getting huffy with me this week when <a href="https://twitter.com/DrMikeSonne/status/899392674754592768" target="_blank">I tweeted that Roberto Osuna should be shut down for the year</a> to prevent injury and ensure he will be a huge part of the team for seasons to come. Like I had mentioned, Osuna&#8217;s Stuff is way down &#8211; he has lost a significant amount off of his fastball and he seems to just refuse to throw the fourseamer anymore.</p>
<p>Not only has his fastball dropped off, but Osunas has lost Stuff in all other areas too. There&#8217;s less separation between his pitches and less range of velocity between the pitch arsenal.</p>
<table style="height: 230px" width="441">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Roberto Osuna</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2015</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2016</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2017</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Stuff</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.82</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.84</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Fastball Velo (mph)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.51</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.75</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">94.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Change in Velo (%)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">13.79%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">9.91%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Break Distance (&#8220;)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">10.31</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">11.60</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I wrote an article that examined workloads in pitchers that tried to come up with a metric that compared relievers to starters in the same light. Looking closely at these values (in the PitchFX era), there has only been one pitcher that had a higher workload before they turned 23  &#8211; Madison Bumgarner.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png"><img class=" wp-image-13076 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png" alt="before 23" width="600" height="352" /></a></p>
<p>In addition, no pitcher had appeared in more games than Osuna. These are uncharted waters &#8211; and if the Jays are seeing these same signs, a tough decision is coming; is it worth risking the health of one of baseball&#8217;s best young closers for an outside shot at the second wildcard, in exchange for losing him for parts of the next two?</p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Mid Season Workloads &#8211; Fatigue Units for the Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/15/mid-season-workloads-fatigue-units-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/15/mid-season-workloads-fatigue-units-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Jul 2017 10:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12354</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Half way through this season, there are many reasons to say FU. Some of them come from the Jays starters giving up another crooked number in the first inning. Some of them come from early season reliever giving up home runs to the stupid Orioles. Others come from the fact that our resident list making [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Half way through this season, there are many reasons to say FU. Some of them come from the Jays starters giving up another crooked number in the first inning. Some of them come from early season reliever giving up home runs to the stupid Orioles. Others come from the fact that our resident list making expert Nick Dika went for pizza and forgot to invite me to come along. However, I would like to talk a bit about a different FU &#8211; Fatigue Units, and how Blue Jay Pitcher workloads look at the midway point of the season.</p>
<p>Earlier this season, I wrote that I<a title="There’s No Need to Worry About Joe Biagini’s Workload" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/" target="_blank"> wasn&#8217;t concerned about Joe Biagini&#8217;s workload</a>, despite him getting close to his career high in Major League Innings. Joe thanked me for this by giving up seven in the first that day, and Twitter well actually&#8217;d me to death. Turns out, Joe maybe just was having a rough month &#8211; and if you look at <a title="The STUFF report – Vol. 2, Issue 5 – All Star Break Edition" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/" target="_blank">the Stuff report</a>, there&#8217;s reason to think Joe will be back to his old ways in no time. The point of evaluating fatigue units is to examine how hard a pitcher is working with a bit more insight into the physiological processes occurring in the body as a result of high velocity pitches, back to back appearances, and high pitch count innings &#8211; not just total innings pitched or round numbers (like a 100 pitch count). If you&#8217;d like to get a bit more information into what Fatigue Units are &#8211; <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/an-introduction-to-fatigue-units-a-new-method-for-evaluating-workloads/" target="_blank">take a look here</a>.</p>
<p>Ok, now that you&#8217;ve done your homework, let&#8217;s move forward.</p>
<h2>Top 10 Pitchers by Workload</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Top-1-Fatigue-Units.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12355" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Top-1-Fatigue-Units-1024x620.png" alt="Top 1 Fatigue Units" width="650" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Can you imagine a world where Ryan Tepera, Dominic Leone, and Danny Barnes did not exist? You think things are bad now? Launch the Blue Jays playoff chances in a rocket, have it go to Mars, and then have them get out and explode like Arnold&#8217;s nemesis did in Total Recall.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/165643.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12356" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/165643.gif" alt="165643" width="320" height="172" /></a></p>
<p>Things would be SO much worse without these three workhorses.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman shows up as the first starter in the top 10. This is because of his exceptional pitch efficiency; Stroman averages a mere 15.3 pitches per inning &#8211; only 15% of all Major League Pitchers can say they average fewer than him (minimum 10 IP). He sits 16th in total innings pitched, but 29th in total pitches thrown. This my friends, is how you work deep into ball games.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna is likely one of the pitchers on this list that will finish in the top three by season&#8217;s end. Roberto has missed some time dealing with a neck issue out of spring training, and more recently his anxiety issues. With how he is pitching now, expect to see a lot more back to back to back appearances, and way more work for Osuna in the second half.</p>
<h2>Ranking the Staff</h2>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Name</th>
<th>Fatigue Units</th>
<th>Pitches</th>
<th>Innings Pitched</th>
<th>Pitches / Inning</th>
<th>&gt; 4 Days Rest</th>
<th>2-4 Days Rest</th>
<th>1 Day Rest</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Tepera</td>
<td>10.49</td>
<td>753</td>
<td>45.1</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dominic Leone</td>
<td>10.49</td>
<td>625</td>
<td>39.2</td>
<td>5.6</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Joe Biagini</td>
<td>9.38</td>
<td>1185</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Danny Barnes</td>
<td>9.38</td>
<td>636</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marcus Stroman</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>1723</td>
<td>112.1</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Marco Estrada</td>
<td>8.62</td>
<td>1788</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>15.9</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Roberto Osuna</td>
<td>7.68</td>
<td>487</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Loup</td>
<td>7.64</td>
<td>543</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Joe Smith</td>
<td>7.00</td>
<td>474</td>
<td>31.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Francisco Liriano</td>
<td>6.17</td>
<td>1214</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J.A. Happ</td>
<td>5.83</td>
<td>1034</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>9.2</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jason Grilli</td>
<td>4.94</td>
<td>458</td>
<td>22.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeff Beliveau</td>
<td>4.29</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>14.1</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mike Bolsinger</td>
<td>3.49</td>
<td>560</td>
<td>31.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aaron Sanchez</td>
<td>2.14</td>
<td>433</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Casey Lawrence</td>
<td>1.94</td>
<td>504</td>
<td>30.2</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>J.P. Howell</td>
<td>1.64</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Leonel Campos</td>
<td>1.22</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mat Latos</td>
<td>1.20</td>
<td>262</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lucas Harrell</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>94</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Glenn Sparkman</td>
<td>0.38</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cesar Valdez</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>13.2</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris Smith</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Matt Dermody</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mid-season-pitcher-workloads/#more-99252"><br />
I recently wrote some unflattering words about the Jays rotation over at RotoGraphs</a> &#8211; they rank 27th in the league in terms of Fatigue Units for their Starters. That&#8217;s because this rotation spends a lot of time bringing the bullpen to life in the fourth inning &#8211; and when you&#8217;re getting shelled that early, the bullpen is going to shoulder a lot of the workload. On the flip side, the Jays rank sixth in workload for their bullpen. They are really being put through the ringer. One thing that is a feather in Gibby&#8217;s cap however, is that while the Jays relievers are high in total workload, they have done so by having pitchers throw on back to back days 58 times, or, ninth most in the entire league. Gibby has had to go to his bullpen a lot, but he&#8217;s done a great job in reducing the strain on his pitchers.</p>
<p>So &#8211; the Starters are fresh for the second half &#8211; the key cogs in the bullpen have a lot left in the tank. Let&#8217;s go win some games and have another fun October!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The STUFF report – Vol. 2, Issue 5 &#8211; All Star Break Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Jul 2017 10:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12292</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey Sorry &#8211; I broke my own Stuff report &#8211; but it&#8217;s all fixed now and we&#8217;re ready to rock again. I think it might even be new, and improved. Let&#8217;s get to it. Starting Pitchers The usual suspects are all here; and the numbers don&#8217;t look a whole lot different than they did in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Sorry &#8211; I broke my own Stuff report &#8211; but it&#8217;s all fixed now and we&#8217;re ready to rock again. I think it might even be new, and improved. Let&#8217;s get to it.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12294" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Table-1024x240.png" alt="Starters Table" width="801" /><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12293" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Graph" width="801" /></a></p>
<p>The usual suspects are all here; and the numbers don&#8217;t look a whole lot different than they did in 2016. Stroman&#8217;s Stuff is much better in 2017, driven by a bit more fastball velocity but significantly (nearly 4&#8243;) more separation between his pitches. That&#8217;s a lot more room to miss bats. In 2017, Stroman is giving up contact on 76.9% of his pitches, compared to 80.2% of his pitches in 2016.</p>
<p>Obviously though &#8211; the Jays starting rotation is struggling in 2017 compared to their banner year of 2016. If the Stuff looks like it is still there, what&#8217;s going on with these guys? I took a look at Baseball Prospectus&#8217; command and control statistics to see what&#8217;s happening. For a quick refresher, command refers to a pitcher&#8217;s ability to hit his spots &#8211; measured in the % of called strikes above average a pitcher receives. Control refers to the ability for a pitcher to put their pitch in the strike zone &#8211; measured as the called strike probability of their pitches.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/command-control.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12295" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/command-control-1024x851.png" alt="command control" width="550" height="457" /></a></p>
<p>Remember if the Stuff stays the same &#8211; which, it has for the most part, something else is happening to make the pitches more hittable. For the brief time we&#8217;ve seen Aaron Sanchez this season &#8211; he has gotten rocked, or his hand has fallen off. He&#8217;s getting fewer called strikes on the edges of the zone and then he&#8217;s putting the ball in the zone less frequently. The blister issues that he&#8217;s had relate directly to this; if the finger tip is hurt, there&#8217;s less sensation. He will struggle with release point, and his fine control. Hopefully he gets the rust off and has a great second half.</p>
<p>Marco Estrada is likely the biggest example of the command/control/stuff interaction. His Stuff has remained relatively the same, but his command is way down, and his control is up. That means his easily hittable, lower velocity and movement pitches are staying in the zone &#8211; and they&#8217;re getting hammered.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12297" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Table-1024x344.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="801" /><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12296" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Graph" width="801" /></a></p>
<p>The only elite Stuff guy in the Jays Bullpen remains Joe Biagini, and that has been a bit of a mixed bag with his entrance and exit to the starting rotation. If you&#8217;re looking for a light at the end of the tunnel for Biagini, his &#8220;Deserved Runs Average&#8221; is actually lower in 2017 than it was in 2016. His Stuff is there, and his command/control numbers look consistent. The evidence points to him breaking out of his funk and being a great pitcher once again.</p>
<p>Osuna&#8217;s Stuff is down in 2017 when compared to his 2016 numbers, but with this comes refined command and control. There is no doubt that Roberto Osuna is one of the best pitchers in the world right now. His fastball velocity is well above average, though the separation between his pitches is much less than it was in 2016 (13.8&#8243; in 2016, compared to 8.1&#8243; in 2017). Where he&#8217;s totally dominating is in the command/control segment. He has more than doubled the amount of command he has on the edges, while leaving fewer pitches in the zone to hit. This has resulted in staggering changes in swinging strike profiles &#8211; batters are making contact on nearly 6% fewer pitches, while swinging at nearly 8% more of his pitches that are out of the zone. In general, he&#8217;s getting 4% more swinging strikes in 2017 than in 2016. Roberto, never leave us. You are a king.</p>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>In general, what we&#8217;re seeing out of this Blue Jays team is a ton of injuries, which have a significant effect on the pitcher&#8217;s ability to throw strikes where they want them. Last year, the Blue Jays pitchers got more called strikes than the average team &#8211; this year, they&#8217;re under that average mark. <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/but-greg-maddux/">While I&#8217;m sure to attract the &#8220;But Greg Maddux&#8221; crowd with this statement, velocity is king.</a> It trumps command and control and is a huge predictor of MLB success. You can see this in the evaluation of the Stuff metric as well &#8211; it&#8217;s easier to succeed with great stuff than it is with mediocre, or bad stuff. That doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t succeed, though. Think of Stuff and Velocity as an insurance policy against bad command &#8211; missing your spot at 97 has way more margin for error than missing your spot at 89. The Jays are not a pitching staff with a whole lot of insurance policies, and now that they aren&#8217;t threading the needle like they did last year, they&#8217;re paying for it.</p>
<p>Well, welcome back to the Stuff report! I promise I won&#8217;t leave you again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>There&#8217;s No Need to Worry About Joe Biagini&#8217;s Workload</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/16/are-we-asking-for-a-4th-wish-pitching-workloads-and-joe-biagini/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jun 2017 10:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workload]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Joe Biagini has moved from his role as bullpen stalwart to the Jays rotation and has filled Aaron Sanchez’s starting spot admirably. While the wins seem to be eluding him, Biagini is racking up the strikeouts, keeping the runs to a minimum, and looking every bit like a Major League starting pitcher. Of course, a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe Biagini has moved from his role as bullpen stalwart to the Jays rotation and has filled Aaron Sanchez’s starting spot admirably. While the wins seem to be eluding him, Biagini is racking up the strikeouts, keeping the runs to a minimum, and looking every bit like a Major League starting pitcher.</p>
<p>Of course, a transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation does tend to lead to a few concerns – and if you check around the Twitterverse, the big one with Joe is his workload. His career high in innings pitched at the Major League level is 67.2 – set last season. In 2017, he’s already at 56.0 innings. Remember though – Biagini rose through the Giants system as a starting pitcher – and his career high in innings as a professional is from the 2015 season where he threw 130.1 innings to the tune of a 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. (Sorry, these stats are irrelevant. I’m just looking at the baseball reference page and I can’t believe the Giants didn’t have a spot on their roster for Joe. Thanks, guys.)</p>
<p>So back to the topic at hand – Biagini is going to blow away his career inning total this season if he stays in the rotation. Tom Verducci is probably just cackling away, eagerly awaiting the moment when poor Joe’s arm flies off because he passes the dreaded 30% innings increase. I am here to tell you; do not worry about Joe Biagini’s workload. Everything is going to be fine.</p>
<p>Innings pitched alone is an ineffective method of determining if a pitcher is at a high risk of getting injured. Overall pitch counts don’t really do the job either. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/an-introduction-to-fatigue-units-a-new-method-for-evaluating-workloads/">Taking you back a bit to some of my previous work, I came up with a metric called “Fatigue Units”. </a>This incorporates the work from other researchers to produce a metric that includes known risk factors for injury &#8211; such as days rest between appearances, fastball velocity, pitches per inning, and the total innings pitched in a season. Using this analysis method, fatigue units were a more effective approach identifying workloads that lead to UCL reconstructions in subsequent seasons than were innings pitched. So, what do Joe Biagini’s 2017 and 2016 workloads look like?</p>
<div id="attachment_11646" style="width: 743px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/biagini-workload.png"><img class="wp-image-11646" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/biagini-workload-1024x784.png" alt="biagini workload" width="733" height="561" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Figure 1. Various Workload Metrics for Joe Biagini during the 2016, and 2017 seasons. Inning Appearances, Pitches, and Fatigue Units (starting from top left, and going clockwise.</p></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The first two graphs probably concern you &#8211; and that&#8217;s fine. He is throwing a lot more innings &#8211; and that is a risk factor &#8211; but what I&#8217;m trying to get at is that these innings are much less stressful on Joe. Looking at the days between his appearances, Biagini had an average of 2.83 days between appearances in 2016 (if you&#8217;re doing this math at home : if there is ever a period of greater than 10 days between appearances, I just removed it from the calculation). During the 2017 season &#8211; that&#8217;s up to 3.35 days between appearances, and in the past two months &#8211; he&#8217;s closer to six days between appearances (thanks to the new role).</p>
<p>Joe has also become more efficient in 2017 &#8211; moving from an average of 16.6 pitches per inning in 2016 to 14.6 pitches per inning in 2017. A while ago, <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/fatigue-inferences-on-a-100-pitch-limit/">I wrote about how throwing more pitches per inning is likely the cause of more fatigue</a>, and not total pitches per game &#8211; so, I was really happy to read this.</p>
<div id="attachment_11647" style="width: 723px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/fatigue-per-inning.png"><img class="size-large wp-image-11647" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/fatigue-per-inning-1024x510.png" alt="Fatigue per inning, based on pitches per inning. Each line represents a 100 pitch start, divided between 4 - 9 inning appearance lengths." width="713" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Figure 2. Fatigue per inning, based on pitches per inning. Each line represents a 100 pitch start, divided between 4 &#8211; 9 inning appearance lengths.</p></div>
<p>The moral of this story is: do not just think of an innings increase as a kiss of death for a pitcher &#8211; not all innings are created equal. Giving Joe Biagini more time between his outings will help him out immensely when it comes to recovering &#8211; and remember: he has a starter&#8217;s pedigree. Instead of worrying about Biagini&#8217;s innings increase, go back to thanking the baseball gods that the Giants didn&#8217;t have room for him on their 40 man.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>THE STUFF REPORT – VOL. 2, ISSUE 4</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 May 2017 14:35:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11248</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you tried it? Delicious. What was I talking about?</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11252" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table-1024x208.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11251" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>My favourite pitcher to watch on the Stuff report has been Marcus Stroman. Stro has better stuff in 2017 than he did in 2016 &#8211; actually, his Stuff has increased by double, from 0.24 to 0.58. Last season, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/01/pitch-homogenization-and-marcus-stromans-breaking-balls/">Kyle Matte wrote about how Stroman&#8217;s pitches looked too similar.</a> It&#8217;s great that you can throw 6 different pitches, but if the hitter can&#8217;t tell the difference between them &#8211; they might as well all be fastballs to him.  This year &#8211; Stro is doing something different.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11254" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show-1024x243.png" alt="Stro Show" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Take a look at how he is changing speeds in 2017 &#8211; and how he is gaining separation between his pitches. The change in velocity is slight, but the 16.6&#8243; separation between his fastball and breaking stuff in the past two weeks is excellent. This separation actually ranks in the top 25 percent of all pitchers in the MLB in the 2017 this season. The 10.2&#8243; he had in 2016? 75 percent of pitchers were better. The current numbers mean a lot more space to induce swings and misses. This is reflected in his increased strikeout rate as well:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11255" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png" alt="stro break and k9" width="700px" /></a>\</p>
<p>You obviously can&#8217;t infer that much from this graph &#8211; it is too small of a sample to say that this is a sustainable trend &#8211; but the relationship sure is interesting. We can look back at the end of the season and see how Stro&#8217;s pitch separation leads to punching more tickets.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11250" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table-1024x224.png" alt="relievers table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11249" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Blue Jays Bullpen Stuff resembles a lot of their season in general &#8211; a rocky start, followed by a lot of stability. In fact, this graph is boring as hell. Here class, may I show you a bunch of straight lines? The exciting thing is about how straight they are. Do you like Molson Canadian and White Wonderbread? I also enjoy going to bed at 10pm and having Swiss Chalet at 4:30 on Wednesdays.</p>
<p>There are two guys that I have some concerns with though &#8211; Roberto Osuna and Aaron Loup. Right now, Osuna&#8217;s stuff is 33 of what it was in 2016. As for Aaron Loup, his stuff has fallen completely off the map. While the culprit with Osuna looks like it&#8217;s a lot of velocity loss, Loup is not separating between his pitches at all in 2017. The Loup concern is something that is a bit more strategic &#8211; if he&#8217;s really feeling that fastball, there&#8217;s no need to throw the slider &#8211; especially if it&#8217;s getting guys out. Osuna&#8217;s leaking velocity is a bit more insidious &#8211; this could be a sign of fatigue and worse, a chance he&#8217;s injured. </p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11257" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna-1024x316.png" alt="Loup and OSuna" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Stuff will continue to educate us all on the miracles of pitching.</p>
<p>Ok, back to my quarter chicken dinner.</p>
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		<title>The STUFF report &#8211; Vol. 2, Issue 3</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-3/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 May 2017 10:24:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10971</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Things are looking up &#8211; arms have stopped flying off pitcher&#8217;s bodies and some wins have started coming around (until this series). But &#8211; what about the Stuff? We always want to know about the Stuff. Starting Pitchers &#160; Now, the STUFF report gets a bit messy here &#8211; because Joe Biagini has become a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Things are looking up &#8211; arms have stopped flying off pitcher&#8217;s bodies and some wins have started coming around (until this series). But &#8211; what about the Stuff? We always want to know about the Stuff.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starter-Teable.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-10974" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starter-Teable-1024x192.png" alt="Starter Teable" width="700px" /></a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Graph1.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-10975" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Graph1-1024x742.png" alt="Starters - Graph" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Now, the STUFF report gets a bit messy here &#8211; because Joe Biagini has become a very bad man as a starter. When you look at his Starting Stuff &#8211; it&#8217;s pretty comparable with the known beast of STUFF &#8211; Aaron Sanchez. Just how similar are the two?</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/sanchez-vs-biagini.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-10976" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/sanchez-vs-biagini-1024x328.png" alt="sanchez vs biagini" width="700" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A limitation of the STUFF metric is that it doesn&#8217;t look at pitches individually &#8211; it looks at the pitcher&#8217;s arsenal as a whole. When you do this &#8211; it&#8217;s pretty evident just how similar Sanchez and Biagini look. Obviously Joe doesn&#8217;t have the nasty sinker that Sanchez posses as a main weapon, but the velocity is comparable, the change in speed is very similar, and Sanchez gets a bit more separation between his pitches. One advantage that Biagini has over Sanchez is that he tends to use more of his arsenal. This plays very well when considering the prospect of Biagini being a starter over the long term.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relief-Table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-10972" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relief-Table-1024x227.png" alt="Relief Table" width="700" /></a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Graph1.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-10973" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Graph1-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Graph" width="700" /></a></p>
<p>After some down weeks to begin the season (and some down results to follow), Roberto Osuna&#8217;s STUFF has started to climb towards its 2016 level. There have also been increases in STUFF by Joe Smith, Dominic Leone, and Jason Grilli. This has had mixed results for the pen &#8211; as Smith has been lights out, Leone has been hit or miss, and Grilli has been a bit of a punching bag. The Bullpen had a bad one this week, but they&#8217;ve had a lot of success recently. Let&#8217;s hope they can keep it up.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays continue facing the worst Stuff rotation in the Majors on Thursday &#8211; the Braves, lead by Colon and Dickey, aren&#8217;t lighting up the radar guns. Let&#8217;s hope the hitters can take advantage and steal a game.</p>
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		<title>The STUFF report – Volume 2, Issue 2</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/02/the-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-2/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/02/the-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 May 2017 13:01:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[EVERYTHING IS STILL AWFUL, BUT WE’RE GOING TO GET THROUGH THIS TOGETHER. DO YOU HEAR ME??! TOGETHER! Hey, it’s issue 2 of the Stuff report! The Stuff report examines changes in the Blue Jays pitching staff to look at changes in performance, risk of injury, or for the deeper meaning of life and a cold [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">EVERYTHING IS STILL AWFUL, BUT WE’RE GOING TO GET THROUGH THIS TOGETHER. DO YOU HEAR ME??! TOGETHER!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Hey, it’s issue 2 of the Stuff report! The Stuff report examines changes in the Blue Jays pitching staff to look at changes in performance, risk of injury, or for the deeper meaning of life and a cold rationalization as to why we put ourselves through the agony of donating three hours of our time to something that will only bring us suffering.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The reason for that last one, is Stuff. Stuff brings us all together.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400">Starting Pitchers</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There are two new, unfortunate debuts on the Stuff report this week with Cat Latos’ dad and Casey Lawrence joining in while getting pummeled on the field (Lawrence more than Latos). </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10619" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starter-Table-1024x192.png" alt="Starter Table" width="816" height="153" /></a></strong></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10620" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Graph-1024x744.png" alt="Starters Graph" width="527" height="383" /></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Both of the new guys profile with less than stellar STUFF &#8211; so it’ll be interesting to see whether they go down the Estrada route and dominate with awesome secondary STUFF or turn into cannon fodder. The pitcher who gets the most amount of excitement is none other than yesterday&#8217;s birthday boy himself, Marcus Stroman. Fresh off a time frame that saw two complete games and a 10 K performance, Stroman is becoming the ace of the staff people expected last year. What has changed between this year and last year in his Stuff?</span></p>
<p><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stroman.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10621" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stroman.png" alt="Stroman" width="657" height="151" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">First, be warned because there were some changes in velocity readings that lead to pitchers having inflated numbers this season &#8211; that’s been addressed in the STUFF score, but not necessarily in just looking at the average velocity values. Stro looks to be throwing harder this year, but looking at his average fastball velocity &#8211; it isn’t up by a lot &#8211; is not enough to buoy a massive change in results. When it comes to the components of his Stuff, the big change is in the separation between his pitches; he is getting nearly five extra inches of separation than the 2016 season. That’s a lot of space to miss bats!</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400">Bullpen</span></h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Reliever-Table.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10617" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Reliever-Table-1024x258.png" alt="Reliever Table" width="727" height="183" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10618" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Graph" width="619" height="449" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There’s not much positive to to write about in terms of the reliever Stuff, but Roberto Osuna’s steady decline in Stuff is worth noting. While his velocity looks down from the previous seasons, it’s the fact that he isn’t using his fastball that has lead to the largest drop in his Stuff. The movement and the change in speeds looks relatively constant &#8211; but let’s hope this is just a matter of Bob getting his confidence back and using the fastball that got him to this level more frequently.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Osuna.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10616" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Osuna.png" alt="Osuna" width="618" height="142" /></a></p>
<h2><b>Team Report</b></h2>
<p>Before the season, I ran a projected Stuff Report to see where we could expect to see the Jays rotation and bullpen rank in terms of their Stuff. This projection pegged the bullpen at 20th overall, and the starting rotation at 16th overall.</p>
<h3>Bullpen</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="font-weight: 400"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10614" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/all-relievers.png" alt="all relievers" width="599" height="446" /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On a whole, the bullpen looks to be matching their previewed Stuff fairly well &#8211; and with Osuna starting to throw his fastball with more frequency, that should be looking even better in the future. They still look pretty good, sitting at 16th in weighted Stuff.</span></p>
<h3>Starters</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/All-Rotations.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-10615" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/All-Rotations.png" alt="All Rotations" width="598" height="449" /></a></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">As for the rotation, they look a lot worse than their projected numbers. When you replace one of the best Stuff pitchers in the world (Aaron Sanchez), with Mat Latos and Casey Lawrence, that’s bound to happen no matter how much junk the Stro Show throws. The Jays were projected to have the 16th best Stuff, but they&#8217;re near the bottom of the league now at 26th.</span></strong></p>
<p>Just remember &#8211; when it was January and -20 and we were all freezing our faces off, we were desperate to watch baseball. This beats the alternative&#8230; I think.</p>
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