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	<title>Toronto &#187; Dave Church</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>Yangervis Solarte Wasn&#8217;t Supposed to Play This Much</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/08/yangervis-solarte-wasnt-supposed-to-play-this-much/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/08/yangervis-solarte-wasnt-supposed-to-play-this-much/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2018 10:26:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[yangervis solarte]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trading for Yangervis Solarte prior to this season made a ton of sense for the Blue Jays. After a 2017 campaign that saw far too many plate appearances from Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, solid infield depth was a priority, and acquiring Solarte addressed that priority. With the injury-prone Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis occupying starting spots, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trading for Yangervis Solarte prior to this season made a ton of sense for the Blue Jays. After a 2017 campaign that saw far too many plate appearances from Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, solid infield depth was a priority, and acquiring Solarte addressed that priority. With the injury-prone Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis occupying starting spots, there would always be a need for at-bats from the middle infield depth, with the dependably durable Josh Donaldson making the majority of appearances at third.</p>
<p>The Jays&#8217; best-laid plans went awry quickly, however, with both Donaldson and Travis spending time hurt, and Tulowitzki seeming to be forever on the mend. But this situation wasn&#8217;t supposed to be too much of a problem, either &#8212; Solarte had essentially played as a regular throughout his career, and, in tandem with Aledmys Diaz, should have been able to hold the line capably until the Jays&#8217; regulars were back on the field. At which point he could drift back into a super-utility role, able to fill several positions capably if one of the starters needed a break.</p>
<p>Plan B started off well enough: Solarte was a bright spot to start the season, quickly earning regular at-bats and smashing seven home runs before the end of the Jays&#8217; misleadingly successful April. His cheerful attitude won over fans quickly. On a team looking for any sources of power in the lineup they could find, it seemed like Solarte could be one of those sources, and perhaps on even more than a temporary basis.</p>
<p>But hot starts from Solarte aren&#8217;t unusual. Consider his career splits by month:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/08/solartesplits.png"><img class=" size-medium wp-image-16527 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/08/solartesplits-300x136.png" alt="solartesplits" width="300" height="136" /></a></p>
<p>There&#8217;s an easy narrative here: Solarte starts hot every year, gets more playing time because he&#8217;s hitting well, perhaps gets figured out as the league adjusts. Brooks Baseball seems to agree. It has<a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_landing.php?player=500208&amp;time=year&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=04/08/2014" target="_blank"> Solarte as being very aggressive</a>, which plays well against pitchers who might be challenging him the first time around, but grows less effective as a strategy as pitchers adjust and face him again.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to blame the Jays for continuing to play Solarte regularly through June and July, though, even as his numbers went into the nose-dive that his career has established as a pattern. Even though this pattern is evident, Solarte has never had fewer than 443 plate appearances in a season as a major leaguer. Toronto probably wasn&#8217;t the first team planning on using Solarte primarily as a backup, only to have him emerge as the sole survivor of a wave of injuries and ineffectiveness.</p>
<p>And in 2018, as more and more players hit the disabled list, there simply weren&#8217;t any better options for the Jays. The injury situation got so dire that their starting catcher was playing games at shortstop. Even if that starting catcher is Russell Martin, who is as athletic as they come behind the plate, that&#8217;s an embarrassing situation for a major league team.</p>
<p>Now, with newcomer Brandon Drury already heading to the disabled list, Solarte will continue to get penciled into the lineup regularly as the Jays play out the season. With several years of consistent big-league playing time already under his belt, there&#8217;ll probably be nothing new to see in Solarte&#8217;s performance down the stretch. He&#8217;ll have his usual slight bounce-back in September, as rosters expand and new pitchers come to see the aggressive, dancing infielder for the first time.</p>
<p>With the trade deadline come and gone, the Jays may keep Solarte around as a depth piece, which is fine. Even with his hot starts and mid-season swoons, Solarte is a perfectly capable bridge player on a rebuilding team, able to competently play a position until some new hot prospect arrives. He&#8217;s also the kind of player that other teams might find useful for a playoff push, as a switch-hitting, defensively versatile infielder with some power. So he could get moved in the offseason, or perhaps stay as the Jays shuffle the deck around him and plan for the next great team.</p>
<p>Either way, the Jays are probably happy with what they got from Solarte this season. A potential career high in home runs might be offset by a current career low in OPS, but they know it&#8217;s not his fault. At this point in his career, Solarte has established what he is, and the management can&#8217;t possibly blame him for a lot of their starting infielders missing significant time. Hopefully the team can continue to build infield depth around Solarte to take advantage of what he does well, while not giving teams time to figure him out.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Gerry Angus &#8211; USA Today Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Roberto Osuna Traded to Houston Astros for Ken Giles And Two Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/report-roberto-osuna-traded-to-houston-astros-for-ken-giles-and-maybe-more/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/report-roberto-osuna-traded-to-houston-astros-for-ken-giles-and-maybe-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jul 2018 21:42:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ken giles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a shocking move, the Blue Jays Monday have reportedly traded suspended closer Roberto Osuna to the Houston Astros. Source: #Astros get Osuna from #BlueJays. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2018 Osuna has been on the restricted list since being charged for domestic violence in May, and has been serving a 75 game suspension [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a shocking move, the Blue Jays Monday have reportedly traded suspended closer Roberto Osuna to the Houston Astros.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Astros</a> get Osuna from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a>.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1024039243109330944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Osuna has been on the restricted list since being charged for domestic violence in May, and has been serving a 75 game suspension retroactive to his being placed on the restricted list. Ever since being placed on the restricted list for that charge, speculation has swirled around what the Blue Jays were going to do with the once star reliever. The <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-gm-ross-atkins-expects-roberto-osuna-back-lineup-suspension/">initial comments from Ross Atkins</a> were that the 23 year old righty would return as the closer, though that is no longer the case as Osuna will now be suiting up for the Houston Astros when he&#8217;s eligible to return on August 4th.</p>
<p>It was quite the fall from grace for young hurler, who was seen as a long term, core piece of the team&#8217;s bullpen, ever since his rapid ascent to the closing role in 2015. And while the Blue Jays no longer have that core piece, they also no longer have to deal with the potential public relations problem that having an alleged domestic abuser on the team would be.</p>
<p>Osuna refused to comment to the media following the trade, per Sean Addis, who was covering the Bisons game.</p>
<p>As for what the Jays will get back:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ken Giles going from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Astros</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> in Osuna deal, source says.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1024041025453649920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Ken Giles is 27 year old reliever with some experience closing, who has been fantastic in his career prior to this season. He has spent the majority of his career with the Astros. Though his current ERA is a career high 4.99 and he has been sent to the minors following an outburst after being removed from a game, his track record suggests an excellent late inning option for a Jays team that has run through many of those in Osuna&#8217;s absence. The Athletic&#8217;s Eno Sarris has a theory as to why Giles may be struggling- his slider has fallen off a cliff (and not in the fun/valuable way):</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Something really weird happened to Ken Giles’ slider this year. It’s obvious why Toronto is doing this: find the slider again, get a top 15 reliever in K-BB since 2015. The Astros side&#8230; <a href="https://t.co/G0loYsbti9">pic.twitter.com/G0loYsbti9</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Eno Sarris (@enosarris) <a href="https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1024042898445062145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Giles still has an elite K/BB ratio of  this year of 10.33 which comes thanks to an incredible three walks allowed in 30 2/3 innings. With the improved control and potential for a return of his plus breaking ball, Giles could basically be for the Jays what Osuna was from 2015-2017.</p>
<p>UPDATES: Straight from the Official Twitter account, the Jays are getting two more players:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OFFICIAL: We&#39;ve acquired RHP Ken Giles, minor league RHP Hector Perez and minor league RHP David Paulino from the <a href="https://twitter.com/astros?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Astros</a> in exchange for RHP Roberto Osuna. <a href="https://t.co/JG98oa0cXj">pic.twitter.com/JG98oa0cXj</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1024048574152298496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The Jays are getting two additional pitching prospects, Hector Perez and David Paulino. Perez is 10th on <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=hou">MLB.com&#8217;s Astros&#8217; prospects list</a>, and is a 22 year old righthander currently with the Astros&#8217; AA affiliate, having been signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. Here is some of what MLB.com had to say about Perez: <em>&#8220;Opponents struggle to make solid contact against Perez, who has four pitches that can grade as plus or better but lose effectiveness when he can&#8217;t tame them. He&#8217;s athletic enough to figure out control and command, but his delivery has timing issues that have prevented him from ever throwing consistent strikes. His walk rate jumped from 4.5 per nine innings in his first two seasons to 6.5 in his third, a sign that he&#8217;s more likely to become a late-inning reliever than a frontline starter.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Paulino is a 24 year old who spent some of the season in AAA, and came to the Astros in a 2013 deal with the Tigers. Though he ranks 23rd on MLB.com&#8217;s list, he was 8th on <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36096/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-forrest-whitley-kyle-tucker/">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; list prior to the season.</a> From BP, the positives on Paulino:  &#8220;<em>Paulino has shown Top 101 stuff on the mound throughout his minor league career. He has a plus fastball that gets extreme plane due to his height and extension. He has a full four-pitch mix with two useable breakers. The curve is potentially plus. The change isn’t too bad. He already has major league time.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>While this isn&#8217;t the return they might have gotten for Osuna prior to the season, the Jays did well from a baseball perspective to add a couple more solid pitching prospects as well as a bona fide major league reliever, making the best out of a potentially nightmarish situation.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays&#8217; Improved Depth Has Already Paid Off</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/15/the-blue-jays-improved-depth-has-already-paid-off/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/15/the-blue-jays-improved-depth-has-already-paid-off/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2018 14:01:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[raising the floor]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the stated goals of the Blue Jays&#8217; front office after a tough 2017 season was to improve the team&#8217;s depth. Injuries and ineffectiveness forced the Jays to go to their bench more than they wanted to last year and there weren&#8217;t many bright spots among the guys that subbed in for the Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the stated goals of the Blue Jays&#8217; front office after a tough 2017 season was to improve the team&#8217;s depth. Injuries and ineffectiveness forced the Jays to go to their bench more than they wanted to last year and there weren&#8217;t many bright spots among the guys that subbed in for the Jays regulars. The backup catcher position was a tire fire, the infielders couldn&#8217;t hit a lick, and none of the depth call-ups distinguished themselves.</p>
<p>It didn&#8217;t take long in this season for those twin menaces, injuries and ineffectiveness, to strike the Jays again. But in contrast, some of those new guys (and a couple old friends) have already distinguished themselves. Let&#8217;s run down some of the Jays&#8217; breakout backups, and where they&#8217;ve already helped.</p>
<p>Any talk of the Jays&#8217; strengthened second unit has to start with Yangervis Solarte. It&#8217;s hilarious now to think that the initial plan for Solarte was to be a super-utility guy coming off the bench, playing the corner infield and second base at times. The versatility came as advertised — he has played every infield position, subbing for Josh Donaldson and Devon Travis most regularly and even getting a turn at shortstop. The power was a surprise; he currently leads the team in dingers with nine. His enthusiasm was also welcome, dancing and cheering his way into fans&#8217; hearts quickly. Though Donaldson has returned, Travis&#8217; demotion to AAA and the revolving door at shortstop will likely leave Solarte getting regular at-bats, until more regulars return or a cold streak sends him back to the bench.</p>
<p>Aledmys Diaz hasn&#8217;t been quite as good, but has still provided some value. He was also expected to be depth, but the spring training injury to Troy Tulowitzki meant a route to regular playing time for him as well until his recent injury. Though he hasn&#8217;t matched his heady 2016 numbers at the plate, he has been solid at shortstop (which is a nice surprise), and has provided something resembling a threat at the plate, something last year&#8217;s backups (Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney) couldn&#8217;t reasonably claim.</p>
<p>Steve Pearce was one of the few bright spots from 2017&#8217;s bench, and has continued to be exactly what he&#8217;s always been: a good right-handed bat against left-handed pitching, someone who plays the outfield like an infielder, and someone who gets hurt every season. Being on the short-side of a platoon with Curtis Granderson had been perfect for Pearce until his injury, and that will be his likely role when he returns.</p>
<p>That is, unless Pearce gets supplanted by Teoscar Hernandez, currently manning right field in the absence of Randal Grichuk. Hernandez impressed in September of last season, hitting some monstrous home runs (and striking out an awful lot). There&#8217;s still some small sample size caveats with Hernandez&#8217;s performance so far (let&#8217;s see how he does after the league&#8217;s seen him a few times this year), but there&#8217;s also reason to believe that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/02/the-new-teoscar-hernandez-may-be-here-to-stay/">this could be real</a>. When Grichuk gets back, the Jays may have a difficult decision on their hands.</p>
<p>Luke Maile was one of several terrible Jays&#8217; backup catchers last year, and the idea of the Jays running it back with him seemed unappetizing, to say the least. That he&#8217;s third on the team in slugging percentage and already has more hits than he had last season is a delightful surprise, and one the Jays will certainly take with how much he&#8217;s playing, roughly once every third day for Martin. With Martin struggling at the plate and Maile flourishing, the Jays have had little reason to fear a Martin day off so far, either at or behind the plate.</p>
<p>While the bench guys probably won&#8217;t be this good for the entire season, they won&#8217;t need to be. Travis and Grichuk are working their way back, and those two and Russell Martin probably won&#8217;t hit under the Mendoza line for the entire season. That the Jays have gotten good hitting and reliable defense from guys not expected to be regulars has been a huge reason for what success they&#8217;ve had so far. The Jays absolutely succeeded in improving their depth for this season, and John Gibbons can and should have confidence in that depth going forward.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Things to Enjoy About the 2018 Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/a-few-things-to-enjoy-about-the-2018-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/a-few-things-to-enjoy-about-the-2018-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2018 10:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15553</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hello, friends. As we anticipate the Jays opening the 2018 season, we&#8217;re all very excited. Maybe we&#8217;re basking in the glow of spring, in players being in the best shape of their lives, of veterans coming to camp renewed, and prospects showing flashes of exciting talent, tantalizing us with glimpses into the future. As we drown in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello, friends. As we anticipate the Jays opening the 2018 season, we&#8217;re all very excited. Maybe we&#8217;re basking in the glow of spring, in players being in the best shape of their lives, of veterans coming to camp renewed, and prospects showing flashes of exciting talent, tantalizing us with glimpses into the future.</p>
<p>As we drown in statistics and projections and talk ourselves into players we&#8217;ll inevitably cast aside by May in favor of some new hotness, here are a few things we can indisputably enjoy about the 2018 Blue Jays. That&#8217;s what baseball is meant for, so no matter how we feel about the team and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/26/bp-torontos-bold-predictions-for-2018/">how they&#8217;ll do this year</a>, let&#8217;s run down a list of reasons the Jays could be a lot of fun.</p>
<h3>Josh Donaldson</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a Blue Jay! He&#8217;s about to start his fourth season with the team, and sometimes it feels like we take his excellence for granted. He&#8217;s a perpetual MVP candidate, crushing dingers and flashing the leather at third base. What&#8217;d they give up for him? Brett Lawrie? Does he still play?</p>
<p>In what might be his last season with the team, there&#8217;s a lot we can appreciate about Donaldson as a baseball player. What&#8217;s your pleasure? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQk9uuPJkEE">Light tower home runs</a>? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXRguE4tffs">Cannon throws from across the diamond</a>? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMy7HSVoBlM">Completely insane base running to win a playoff series</a>? Explaining his swing and roasting Mark Derosa at the same time?</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NyWNCrxVzPU" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Donaldson is going to be a free agent in 2019. To that I say, who cares? Let the future worry about itself. We&#8217;ll have plenty of time to drown in whatever despair we can talk ourselves into. There&#8217;s dingers to be smashed, and lasers to be fired from third, and Donaldson will provide plenty of both.</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez</h3>
<p>Remember him? 7th in Cy Young voting in 2016, pumping gas and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck8lJkpcIhU">dropping hammers</a> on fools? Don&#8217;t act like you don&#8217;t know.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXyZgipI76I" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>The Jays aren&#8217;t short on talented starting pitchers, but the guy with the highest ceiling is the one who couldn&#8217;t duck getting blisters most of last season. If you want someone with <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/the-final-regular-season-blue-jays-stuff-report/">great stuff</a>, Sanchez is your guy.</p>
<p>Sure, the rotation is all good. Estrada&#8217;s got that changeup, Stroman has a whole bag of tricks, and Happ does whatever it is he does every five days. But give me the guy with the straight gas and the huge hook.</p>
<h3>Roberto Osuna</h3>
<p>Knock knock. Who&#8217;s there? One of the best closers in the game, that&#8217;s who.</p>
<p>&lt;<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9rBUqt7-QyQ?start=17" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Being in a tight game can be a white-knuckle affair when your team has a bad closer. The Jays have had standout closers like Tom Henke and Duane Ward, flamethrowers like Billy Koch, and less reliable sorts like Randy Myers and the exasperating slowness of Jason Frasor.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s so much to love about Osuna. He&#8217;s only 23(23!) and already about to start his fourth season with the Jays. His story is absurd. Signed by the Jays at 16, he was primarily a starter in the minors, including a missed year after Tommy John surgery in 2013. He skipped all the way from high-A to the majors in 2015, when an understaffed Jays bullpen tapped a lot of young arms for the back end. Osuna wasn&#8217;t the closer to start the year, which is absurd in hindsight. It was Miguel Castro. Miguel Castro! He&#8217;s on the Orioles now, apparently?</p>
<p>We can breathe easy when the Jays get to the ninth inning with the lead and Osuna trots out from the bullpen. Enjoy a relaxing, eleven pitch inning from your closer, with a strikeout or two, and hopefully Roberto greeting a happy Russell Martin at the theoretical door of their figurative house.</p>
<h3>New Guys</h3>
<p>The Jays have some new players! Everyone likes shiny, new things. Bored seeing the same names in the lineup every day? The Jays have you covered.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista may have ridden off into the sunset (mostly), which- if we&#8217;re being honest- may be something of a relief to Jays fans after the 2017 season he had. Ezequiel Carrera is gone too, and though he was better, he wasn&#8217;t much fun either. Into their spots ride Curtis Granderson and Randall Grichuk. And while neither have Bautista&#8217;s name brand value, they&#8217;ll probably end up being better. Granderson has been good for 20 home runs a year nearly every season since 2007 and Grichuk offers similar pop in the other corner. Dingers!</p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s injuries are a drag, but we get to see some new faces in his spot while he&#8217;s out. Aledmys Diaz was an all-star in 2016 and Yangervis Solarte is a solid player who can play all over the diamond. The Jays haven&#8217;t had someone like that in quite a while, so it&#8217;ll be interesting to see where Gibby pencils him into the lineup.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s much more to love with this Jays team, depending on your taste. Maybe you&#8217;re all-in on Marcus Stroman&#8217;s theatrics, Kevin Pillar&#8217;s dives, or Russell Martin gunning down fools who try to steal bases. Perhaps you&#8217;re someone who appreciates Justin Smoak crushing home runs, Marco Estrada&#8217;s chanegeup buckling knees, or Devon Travis lashing doubles.</p>
<p>But as we get into this Jays season, let&#8217;s remember that baseball should be fun, and that there are plenty of reasons to enjoy watching the Blue Jays. You just need to find yours.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Learning to Love Vlad and Bo By Getting Over Travis Snider</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/14/learning-to-love-vlad-and-bo-by-getting-over-travis-snider/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/14/learning-to-love-vlad-and-bo-by-getting-over-travis-snider/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2018 10:30:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[meats don't clash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis Snider]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15369</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you&#8217;re a Jays fan, you&#8217;re aware of Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette. Even if you&#8217;re not a Jays fan, if you follow prospects at all you&#8217;ve probably heard their names, atop many a list of rising stars, players ticketed for stardom sooner rather than later. Our fans are excited, and rightfully so. We [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you&#8217;re a Jays fan, you&#8217;re aware of Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette. Even if you&#8217;re not a Jays fan, if you follow prospects at all you&#8217;ve probably heard their names, atop many a list of rising stars, players ticketed for stardom sooner rather than later. Our fans are excited, and rightfully so. We don&#8217;t need to spend any time singing their praises, because enough people do already.</p>
<p>If I seem reluctant to pile on the praise, that&#8217;s intentional. It&#8217;s a blind spot for me, a rare time where I can&#8217;t be analytical, thoughtful, thorough &#8212; all the things I try to be when I write here. It&#8217;s not just that I don&#8217;t have the tools to analyze them (because I definitely don&#8217;t), but also because I can&#8217;t be objective. I see the praise, the hype, and I instinctively want to pump the brakes on the hype train, remind people that they&#8217;re barely adults, awfully young to have so much pressure heaped on them by us, tweeting and hoping for them to lead the next Jays team to the World Series. But then I wonder if I&#8217;m really being objective. If I&#8217;m playing defense for their sake or mine. If it&#8217;s just that I&#8217;ve been burned before.</p>
<p>Because I <em>get</em> the excitement, I do. I had it, once, in a different time. Was it because I was younger, more naive, more hopeful? Because I knew less about baseball than I do now? While those things are all true, I still can&#8217;t be sure of my current motivations. I can&#8217;t be sure of why I feel this compulsion to tamp it down, to not be excited about two incredibly talented players. Maybe it&#8217;s because I see Vlad and Bo, and I think of Travis Snider.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
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<p>Jays fans of a certain vintage will remember Travis Snider. He was the can&#8217;t-miss prospect of that long ago. The Jays&#8217; first-round pick in 2006, a stocky outfielder with a beautiful left-handed power swing and a good arm. He was going to win multiple MVPs, be the cornerstone of the lineup for years. Snider blazed through the minors, reaching the majors by the end of August in 2008. He was the youngest position player in the majors at the time, and those that were high on him as a prospect saw things to get excited about: the prodigious power, the strong arm, the gorgeous swing. There was hope in him &#8212; hope that we projected onto him. Yet despite the quick ascent, Snider never really stuck in the majors. He showed flashes of the power, the arm, all the things that had people expecting greatness from him. But he never really put it all together.</p>
<p>There were any number of guesses why, and they could all be right. Maybe Snider was rushed: Then-GM JP Ricciardi was under fire, had to show some progress after too many disappointing seasons, and picked the golden boy, the one can&#8217;t-miss ace in his pocket. Snider was his ticket out, the thing he could point to and say &#8220;See? I do know what I&#8217;m doing!&#8221; Snider was going to come up and succeed, be that cornerstone that all the prospect hounds thought he was going to be &#8212; but Ricciardi&#8217;s job anxiety messed that all up. Maybe his development was muddled: Legendary Jays manager Cito Gaston was old-school, a bad fit for the young man&#8217;s initial major-league tour. Gaston messed with his swing, that perfect swing, the one that had all the power that made scouts excited. Gaston was once a savant as a hitting coach, but the game had passed him by, and his last lap with the Jays was one that tripped Snider up, made him fail. Or maybe it was something personal, a internal weakness, that made Snider miss. Sorrow, grief. His mother and grandparents all dying tragically in ways that would scar anyone to the core. Something mental, something impossible to diagnose. This kind of speculation is abhorrent, but the whispers were there, as a can&#8217;t-miss prospect continued to miss.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
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<p>We spoke of hope earlier, and projecting, which is something we do in prospects. I projected that hope onto Snider, as so many Jays fans at the time did. I projected hard. I wanted him to be great. I saw the swing (left-handed, like me), the power (very much not like me), the arm (again, very much not like me). I saw that cornerstone, the franchise player, the multiple All-Star selections. I bought the jersey, a bland white one, the number 45 emblazoned on the back in the boring grey of the time. I still have that jersey. It sits untouched in my closet. I can&#8217;t get rid of it, despite knowing with 100 percent certainty that I won&#8217;t wear it again. I&#8217;ll go through the closet, maybe later this year, and pause. I&#8217;ll think of Snider, of the hopes and dreams, the can&#8217;t-miss prospect who missed. I&#8217;ll wonder, again, about how and why, about the mystery of baseball.</p>
<p>When I think about it, though, it&#8217;s not Snider&#8217;s failure that bothers me. Because he didn&#8217;t fail, not really. He reached the highest level of baseball, was one of the top 600-ish players in the world, went farther in his chosen profession than I ever will in anything. It&#8217;s my own disappointment that lingers. I let myself get excited about Snider, thought he was going to be a star, and was let down. I expected too much from a young man who didn&#8217;t ask for those expectations. He didn&#8217;t need my breathless anticipation, my clearing out a corner outfield spot for him to nail down, my oohing and aahing over those light-tower home runs, writing him down for 40 of those home runs a year well into the 2010s. It&#8217;s simple, really: I got excited about Snider, and he didn&#8217;t make it, and now I won&#8217;t get excited about any prospect. It&#8217;s irrational, and maybe a little dumb, but that&#8217;s what happened.</p>
<p>Snider&#8217;s is not a unique story. Such disappointment happens with prospects all the time, for all kinds of reasons. But I can&#8217;t separate myself from him. He was the one I connected to. And now, several years removed from his trade deadline departure, I&#8217;m trying to slow the roll on a new generation of Jays talent, one that has zero connection to a meat-loving outfielder who hasn&#8217;t worn Jays blue since the aughts.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
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<p>Baseball is uncertain, and that can be cruel. But that uncertainty is also what makes it great. For all I&#8217;ve learned over the last several years about evaluating baseball, about how to measure and explain it, so often things happen that we can&#8217;t explain. A <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/58809/didi-gregorius">light-hitting shortstop</a> comes to the AL East and hits 20 home runs, <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/58809/didi-gregorius">a pitcher</a> jumps from high-A to the big leagues and is a lights-out closer, and a guy who&#8217;s been a rotation anchor for years just loses it overnight. Often these random events are used as a cudgel against analytics and advanced stats. For me, it just enhances the experience of baseball. It&#8217;s part of the reason I watch it. If we could predict everything, if numbers and statistics and projections were right all the time, what would be the point? There would be no joy, no fun, nothing to make it unpredictable. We don&#8217;t always know what&#8217;s going to happen, and that&#8217;s what makes baseball great. The anxiety, the white-knuckle at-bats, the roar with two strikes in the bottom of the ninth as we wait to see the pitch. That&#8217;s what makes this game so amazing.</p>
<p>Vlad and Bo aren&#8217;t Travis Snider. They&#8217;re great, generational prospects, and worth getting excited about. You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that. Maybe they make it, maybe they&#8217;re superstars, anchoring the lineup well beyond when Snider hangs up his cleats. Maybe they don&#8217;t. But their paths aren&#8217;t the same as his. It&#8217;s okay to be excited, and let others be excited about them.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not excited yet, because I still have work to do. I need to let go of Travis Snider, the Jays prospect I pinned my hopes and dreams on, the one I was sure was going to make it. I need to stop letting my own disappointment over him cloud my judgement when I look at prospects. I can be excited about Vlad and Bo. I don&#8217;t need to avoid the highlights, the breathless articles, the constant fawning that makes me wince a little. I need to get over myself, and the fear of their failure. I want to let go. I don&#8217;t know if I know how. But I want to.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Kevin Pillar is Approaching a Career Crossroads</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/22/kevin-pillar-is-approaching-a-career-crossroads/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/22/kevin-pillar-is-approaching-a-career-crossroads/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Feb 2018 11:53:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar is probably going to be the opening day centre fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. With the recent upheaval in the Jays outfield (making this piece hilariously outdated), the certainty Pillar provides may be of some comfort to John Gibbons. He&#8217;s a plus defender in a position that demands it and has been durable [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin Pillar is probably going to be the opening day centre fielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. With the recent upheaval in the Jays outfield (making <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/">this piece</a> hilariously outdated), the certainty Pillar provides may be of some comfort to John Gibbons. He&#8217;s a plus defender in a position that demands it and has been durable in a time when the Jays don&#8217;t have many constants in the lineup. You know Pillar will be there, night in and night out. He had the second most plate appearances among the Jays in 2017.</p>
<p>In order to look ahead, let&#8217;s first glance at how we got here. After starting 2015 as the starting left fielder, Pillar was quickly moved to centre and put up a career year, with 3.8 WARP in 159 games. Durable, reliable, and spectacular on defense, Pillar cemented his place in the lineup &#8211; able to thrive defensively on a team with many offensive stars. 2016 wasn&#8217;t quite as good, though the Jays had too many other questions for them to look too hard at a guy who was still making the minimum. Pillar was found money &#8211; someone who&#8217;d overachieved to get where he was &#8211; and the Jays didn&#8217;t really need to change that.</p>
<p>But 2017 wasn&#8217;t any better than 2016. After a hot first couple of months in the leadoff spot, Pillar absolutely cratered at the plate, ending the year almost exactly where he&#8217;d been in years prior. <a title="How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">Pre-season talk of changing his approach</a> didn&#8217;t amount to much, leaving his defense as his main calling card. That wouldn&#8217;t have been much comfort to a team that had many black holes in the lineup even if the outfield play had remained the same, but Pillar&#8217;s defense seemed to have slipped from the meteoric heights of 2015.</p>
<p>2017 was worse for the outfield as a whole, too. Injuries and ineffectiveness had the Jays sometimes scrambling for bodies to man the corners beside Pillar. Twelve different players played the outfield for the Jays in 2017. This only served to highlight Pillar&#8217;s decline: of those twelve names, Pillar finished tied for seventh in WARP, as much as Darrel Ceciliani (who played three games) and Dwight Smith. Among the names ahead of Pillar: Nori Aoki (who played twelve games), Michael Saunders (ditto), and even Jose Bautista (who somehow graded well in FRAA).</p>
<p>Pillar can be a useful piece on the right team. For the 2015 Blue Jays (Pillar&#8217;s best year by BP&#8217;s measurements), having Pillar at the bottom of the lineup was a boon. His stellar defense in centre masked deficiencies in the players on either side of him and a hit-or-miss bat wasn&#8217;t as much of a problem when the rest of the lineup was absolutely mashing. You could live with the hot and cold streaks when you had several better hitters in front of him.</p>
<p>The offensive decline of the Blue Jays since then has brought a spotlight to Pillar&#8217;s own deficiencies with the bat. While other players not carrying the load was more of a problem, Pillar&#8217;s free-swinging ways became more noticeable. Bold talk of wanting to hit leadoff generally didn&#8217;t last long, as Pillar&#8217;s approach and results were never a fit for someone who would be getting the most plate appearances of anyone on the team. And Pillar&#8217;s defense hasn&#8217;t as good since 2015, whether by random fluctuation or by some decline in effort or skill by someone who was never projected to be that good of a defensive player. Still, he had provided some surplus value.</p>
<p>Where the problem starts for the Jays will be Pillar&#8217;s contract. The 29 year old, in his first year of arbitration, will be making $3.25 million dollars. $3.25 million isn&#8217;t much, but it&#8217;s not this year that concerns the team. Pillar is going to get more expensive as he goes through arbitration and a team with other financial burdens may question whether a below average offensive player with potentially declining defense is worth that kind of money and a regular spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays didn&#8217;t look too hard at Pillar this off-season and his new expense, an understandable decision given the many other questions they already had, but that will change.</p>
<p>The Jays have also gotten much stronger depth in the outfield. The 2017 Jays had no one knocking at the door for a regular spot, save for the oft-injured Dalton Pompey. They also had a left field platoon of Ezequiel Carrera and Steve Pearce, two guys who were likely to see the bench before Pillar. This year, however, the Jays added Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk to make a crowded big league corner outfield situation, and have Teoscar Hernandez joining Anthony Alford and Pompey as outfield prospects, likely to knock on the door before too long. With Pillar&#8217;s recent struggles, it&#8217;s likely his spot on the roster could come into question if one of Alford or Hernandez starts out hot in the minors, or if the incumbent struggles out of the gate.</p>
<p>2018 is going to be a telling year for the Blue Jays and their regular centre fielder. Pillar has been a fan favourite for his defense and one of a few players left from the magical 2015 playoff run. Perhaps he&#8217;s still riding the coattails of that year; highlights and memories etched into us so indelibly that we can&#8217;t bear to think of a Jays team without him. Or maybe there is another chapter for Pillar, an improvement that sticks, and he can bridge the gap to the next great Blue Jays squad. For a player who wasn&#8217;t graded highly as a prospect, and was never expected to be a regular, he&#8217;s already exceeded expectations to get as far as he has. He&#8217;s still got time to prove the doubters wrong again, but that time is running short.</p>
<p>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 11:21:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention: Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see if there’s a way to upgrade or complement in our outfield.”</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/949781617106546688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The focus from some was on the first part of the quote, where Atkins said they felt like they could start the season with the outfielders they have. While he goes on to say they do want to upgrade, it was the first half that drew the most attention and the most ire from fans.</p>
<p>Given the state of the Jays outfield, that reaction is understandable. There are no stars in this bunch and not much in the way of established regulars. Kevin Pillar is probably the best of them and that&#8217;s not a great spot for a team that has designs on contending. Pillar is a fine defender in centre field, but has established himself as a below average hitter at this point. Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s career year still had him just under 1 WARP in 131 games, Steve Pearce hits well, defends poorly and can&#8217;t stay healthy, and Teoscar Hernandez, while a solid prospect, was deemed expendable by the World Series champion Astros. There are warts to be found here.</p>
<p>Assuming no upgrades (or that new Jay Yangervis Solarte won&#8217;t play the outfield for the first time since 2014), could the Jays enter the season with the outfield they have? Could they succeed? Let&#8217;s look at some scenarios where they could live, or even thrive, with the outfielders they have currently.</p>
<h3>And Teoscar Goes To&#8230; The Rogers Centre And Hits Dingers All The Time</h3>
<p>Even if Teoscar Hernandez wasn&#8217;t the brightest light in the Astros system, he was still a worthwhile prospect close to the major leagues &#8211; something the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t have a lot of when they acquired him. There were concerns: not fast enough to play centre field, not enough of a bat to play the corner, and he struck out a lot. But, again, the Jays weren&#8217;t in a position to be choosy. That they got an actual prospect for Francisco Liriano was amazing enough.</p>
<p>Hernandez had a solid showing for the Jays after being called up late in the season, hitting 8 home runs in just 95 at-bats. He did strike out 36 times, a concerning number for that amount of at-bats. And there&#8217;s the old adage about not believing anything you see in April and September.</p>
<p>Still, Hernandez is mostly a blank slate at the major league level, someone on whom the Jays can project hope and see the potential for something greater than what he&#8217;s shown so far. He COULD be a star. He could also struggle, as some prospects do in the their first actual shot at the majors. There&#8217;s a wide range of possible outcomes.</p>
<p>The other point to make is that Hernandez would essentially be replacing Jose Bautista. On the whole, it&#8217;s unlikely that Hernandez will ever get close to Bautista&#8217;s accomplishments in his career as a Blue Jay. But the 2017 version of Jose Bautista had an awful season, with a stat line of .203/.308/.366, good for a tAV of only .237. That&#8217;s not a terribly high bar to clear.</p>
<p>So we can say that Hernandez, given a wide open space in the lineup, could easily be better than the man he&#8217;s replacing. He could be a star. But what if he scuffles? What if he bounces between the majors and AAA? How else could the Jays outfield work as it is?</p>
<h3>A Carrera/Pearce Platoon Holds Serve</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s very little exciting about a potential Carrera/Pearce platoon in left field. But it could be worse. The 2017 Jays opened the season with both Carrera AND Pearce in the lineup. The theory was that Pearce would split his time between first base and left field and Carrera would start some in left while backing up in centre and right. We know how that went: Pearce got hurt, Justin Smoak became an all-star, and Carrera had a career year.</p>
<p>Carrera and Pearce are known quantities to Jays fans by this point, but that can be a good thing. They do have some contrasting skills. Pearce provides some right-handed power. Carrera bats left-handed, makes some contact, gets on base, and doesn&#8217;t completely embarrass himself in the field. There&#8217;s an easy platoon in that.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need a lot from the left field position. 2 WARP would have been good enough for 16th in baseball among left fielders last season and Carrera and Pearce combined for nearly that between them. So while it&#8217;s unlikely that Carrera or Pearce will suddenly find another gear, it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need them to be that much better.</p>
<h3>The Rest Of The Lineup Improves</h3>
<p>This is the most likely scenario. When the Jays&#8217; lineup was a juggernaut in 2015, mauling opponents night in and night out, it was at least in part due to the depth of the lineup. Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson were the headliners, but them being great made it easier for the supporting cast to contribute. And when October rolled around, having the depth they had made it easier for them to carry the bat of someone like Ryan Goins, who hit only in theory during that playoff run.</p>
<p>When we look at the Jays&#8217; potential 2017 lineup, there are a lot of hitters. Donaldson and Smoak are the headliners, with Devon Travis and Russell Martin still able to bring value with the bat. Troy Tulowitzki is a question mark, and Kendrys Morales may have disappointed last season, but there&#8217;s pedigree in those names as guys who have been good previously and could potentially be that good again.</p>
<p>Another help for the lineup: the Jays are better insulated against injury. The acquisitions of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte give them better depth if someone gets hurt again. There will be no more seeing Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins anchor the bottom of the order. Solarte could even be an outfield option, having spent time there in 2014.</p>
<p>So there&#8217;s a lot of ways the Jays could well stand pat with what they have and be fine in 2017. While the current outfield situation isn&#8217;t ideal, the Jays aren&#8217;t short of options. Ross Atkins is absolutely right: while the Jays should look to upgrade, they could absolutely start the season with what they have and be fine.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Ryan Goins and Continuing A Blue Jays Middle Infield Tradition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/06/ryan-goins-and-continuing-a-blue-jays-middle-infield-tradition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/06/ryan-goins-and-continuing-a-blue-jays-middle-infield-tradition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Dec 2017 12:11:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John McDonald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Munenori Kawasaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14493</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ryan Goins was non-tendered by the Blue Jays a few days ago, potentially ending his tenure with the team. The acquisition of Aledmys Diaz made him expendable, as the Jays look to build more depth behind injury prone starters. Despite playing a lot the last two years, Goins was never meant to be a starter, only to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ryan Goins was <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/toronto-blue-jays-non-tender-ryan-goins-and-tom-koehler/">non-tendered by the Blue Jays a few days ago</a>, potentially ending his tenure with the team. The acquisition of Aledmys Diaz made him expendable, as the Jays look to build more depth behind injury prone starters. Despite playing a lot the last two years, Goins was never meant to be a starter, only to be called upon when injuries hit the player meant to start in front of him. If he fielded competently (which he did), and wasn&#8217;t a complete embarrassment with the bat, the Jays would live with him until the bigger star came back.</p>
<p>The issue in recent years was, of course, that the stars were often out much longer than the team had hoped, forcing them to go to Goins more often. Goins had 400 at-bats in two of the last three seasons, soldiering on every day as his name was penciled into the lineup. His fielding wasn&#8217;t as good, and his bat never really stood up against MLB pitching.</p>
<p>Despite obvious limitations, Goins became a fan favorite. Some thought him a regular, a clutch hitter with a fantastic glove. So, why the love from fans, despite the absolutely logical arguments that explain him being bad? With a little reflection, it&#8217;s easy to see why.  Blue Jays fans have a recent history of appreciating plucky backup infielders.</p>
<p>Fans of a certain vintage will remember John McDonald, who was with the team from 2006 to 2010. As the Jays scuttled through the late 00s, the shortstop position was a turnstile of mostly mediocrity. Names like Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Royce Clayton, David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro, Alex Gonzalez, and Yunel Escobar rotated through the lineup. But it was often Johnny Mac who ended the season playing the position, as the Jays&#8217; best laid plans went awry. McDonald&#8217;s calling card, like Goins, was his defense. His quick reflexes and equally quick release was something to see, whatever position he was playing.</p>
<p><iframe width="600" height="450" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M7-MkGPJmQQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>While McDonald is remembered very fondly by most Jays fans, looking back at the stats, it&#8217;s interesting to see that he was actually a worse hitter than Goins in his day. It&#8217;s unlikely that the current evaluating environment would view him very fondly, even as a backup. It&#8217;s probably part of why the Jays tried to move away from him every season, realizing that his bat wasn&#8217;t terribly useful, save for the occasional <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/mcdonalds-two-run-blast/c-9201989">tear-jerking dinger</a>. But McDonald was an easy player to appreciate, between how pretty his defense was and how regular he seemed. He wasn&#8217;t a large behemoth, athletic and fast and worldly in his skill. He seemed just normal enough for fans to appreciate him, even as his superlative defense suggested otherwise.</p>
<p>Between McDonald and Goins, we had Munenori Kawasaki, another light-hitting backup who shuttled between AAA and the majors for a couple seasons. Unlike the other two, Kawasaki&#8217;s defense wasn&#8217;t really his calling card. He was probably best known for his memorable post-game interviews, even as he, too, filled in for more capable, injured teammates with enthusiasm, and as much skill as he could muster. The one moment everyone probably remembers is his walk-off double against the Orioles, a delightful surprise from a man who had absolutely no hitting power to speak of.</p>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cFVuyk04NUk?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>Matt Devlin is pure joy, surprised and delighted as Kawasaki stings a ball into the gap, past a defeated Adam Jones. Everyone has seen a game like this, the Jays trailing late, needing a clutch hit with men on base to take the win. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista, those guys are imposing, the guys pitchers don&#8217;t want to see in that spot. That it was the tiny, light-hitting Kawasaki that did it here just made it better, somehow.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s unlikely that anyone reading this will have their opinion changed of Goins, or any of the players mentioned here. And that&#8217;s fine. Ryan Goins had his time with the Jays, with his share of highlights and lowlights. He&#8217;ll probably continue his career in a similar role elsewhere, as a defensively adept backup, which is a role he&#8217;s suited for. The end of the Goins argument is likely a relief for a certain segment of Jays fans, but even as Goins moves on, we can and should appreciate why fans like Goins, and players similar to him. We&#8217;ve often had someone like Goins on the team, a backup that warms the hearts any time he&#8217;s in the game. Looking at that history, we&#8217;ll probably have another Goins (or McDonald, or Kawasaki) on the Jays soon enough.</p>
<p>Fear not, Jays fans.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Blistering (And Hopeful) Comparison for Aaron Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/13/a-blistering-and-hopeful-comparison-for-aaron-sanchez/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/13/a-blistering-and-hopeful-comparison-for-aaron-sanchez/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Nov 2017 11:46:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14145</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are a lot of reasons the 2017 Blue Jays weren&#8217;t as good as everyone hoped. An underachieving offense, injuries, regression from veterans, and players underachieving all contributed to a team that was in last place for all but the final day of the season. While some of that could have been anticipated, some of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are a lot of reasons the 2017 Blue Jays weren&#8217;t as good as everyone hoped. An underachieving offense, injuries, regression from veterans, and players underachieving all contributed to a team that was in last place for all but the final day of the season. While some of that could have been anticipated, some of those things were complete surprises, things the team couldn&#8217;t really have planned for.</p>
<p>Among the biggest reasons the Jays underachieved was Aaron Sanchez, who was either bad or hurt for the majority of the year. Coming off a season where Sanchez was a Cy Young contender, expectations were high for the young starter. His injury struggles weren&#8217;t his fault: Sanchez didn&#8217;t will the blisters to life on his pitching fingers, or <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/7/11/16077768/mlb-pitching-blister-increase-baseballs-d585997d1857">potentially make changes to baseballs</a> that made it more likely for pitchers to get said blisters.</p>
<p>These issues might make Sanchez more of a question mark than we would like. The recurring blisters led to <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/8/13/16140230/toronto-blue-jays-aaron-sanchez-to-the-bullpen">talk of</a> <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-notebook-sanchez-pitch-bullpen/">moving him</a> <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/the-bullpen-holds-the-answer-to-sanchez-s-blister-issues-1.770075">to the</a> <a href="https://jaysjournal.com/2017/05/31/blue-jays-should-aaron-sanchez-go-back-to-the-bullpen/">bullpen</a>, with the hope that this would allay Sanchez&#8217;s problems. While getting him more 2017 outings may have been productive, the idea of moving him to the bullpen permanently is preposterous given his effectiveness as a starter when he&#8217;s been healthy. The only reason they should move Sanchez to the bullpen is if they absolutely cannot keep him healthy otherwise.</p>
<p>So to keep Sanchez healthy (and avoid cratering his value by making him a reliever full-time), the Jays need to figure out how to manage those blisters, which would help get him back to the top-end starter he was in 2016. A return to form would be a huge asset for the Jays as they look to get back into playoff contention. While we&#8217;re not here to propose solutions to Sanchez&#8217;s problem, as that&#8217;s well beyond the scope of our expertise, We do have a recent example of a player who had several blister issues and came back from it: Rich Hill.</p>
<p>The beginning of Hill&#8217;s 2017 season was similar to Sanchez&#8217;s. Hill was placed on the DL after his first start with a blister, and got three innings into another outing before having to leave again for The same reason. After acquiring him late in 2016 (and having similar problems then), the Dodgers were probably as perplexed as the Jays were on how to deal with it. Hill tried <a href="https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/10/6/16435180/rich-hill-fastball-curveball-change-los-angeles-dodgers">using his fastball more</a>, which seemed to work for him. After coming off the DL in May, he didn&#8217;t miss a start for the rest of the season.</p>
<p>Even with their similar recent history, we need to acknowledge that Hill and Sanchez are very different pitchers. Sanchez is straight gas, hitting the high 90s with his fastball with regularity. Hill is a soft tossing southpaw, lacking the firepower that makes Sanchez so dominant, but still an elite strikeout pitcher because of his arsenal. Scoff at the 89 mph fastball all you like until he drops that sweeping curveball in and your knees buckle.</p>
<p>This may seem to suggest a course of action for Sanchez, but again, this is not what we&#8217;re trying to do here. Hill changed what he did, and Sanchez may not need to. Part of Sanchez&#8217;s dominance can be traced to his repertoire and he should be reluctant to change that. What we are doing with the Hill comparison is suggesting that Sanchez can come back from the blisters. While none of the things Sanchez tried in 2017 worked, and the finger problem marred basically an entire season, they don&#8217;t need to define who Sanchez is right now, or what he&#8217;s going to be. This was someone who was the anchor of a fantastic 2016 Blue Jays starting staff and can easily be again.</p>
<p>While none of us knows exactly what the Jays and Sanchez can or will do to figure things out, there&#8217;s more reasons to be optimistic than not about Sanchez for next year. 2017 might have been the year of the blister, but Sanchez was easily the worst case out of anyone who struggled with them and sheer luck should prevent that from happening again. It might be hard to remember, but Sanchez was really, really good as recently as one year ago. Hopefully, the only blistering we hear about from him in 2018 is about the fastballs he’s throwing by unsuspecting hitters on the outside corner.</p>
<p><i>Lead photo © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Underrated 2017 Feel Good Story: Ezequiel Carrera Excelling</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/27/underrated-feel-good-story-of-the-year-ezequiel-carrera-excelling/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2017 10:46:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. Pearce struggled and then got hurt, and Carrera had a solid season, much better than anyone could have hoped. He will finish the year with career highs in most offensive categories. He&#8217;s third among Jays regulars in tAV and OBP, and fifth on the team in WARP. Though no one would mistake him for an elite defender, he has played all three outfield positions, giving the Jays some flexibility on a team with far too many slow-footed defenders.</p>
<p>That Carrera has been benched probably isn&#8217;t a commentary on his performance, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/04/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox-4/">as we explained previously</a>. It&#8217;s a names and numbers game. In a meaningless September, the prospects are going to play. The established stars are going to play. Carrera, a journeyman in the midst of his finest season, is neither. At 30, there&#8217;s probably no higher ceiling for him to reach, and no fans to appease by writing his name in the lineup every day.</p>
<p>Zeke&#8217;s career year is a feather in his cap, and could potentially have been a fun story in a more successful Jays year. One could look at him and see a fringe major leaguer, making good after being written off again and again, grabbing hold of a regular role despite the doubts and questions that have constantly surrounded him. The Jays have always tried to move on, to find a better regular to supplant him, but Carrera has always found at-bats and a roster spot during his time in Toronto.</p>
<p>Despite being a fixture on the team through two playoff seasons, Zeke isn&#8217;t a fan favourite. He&#8217;s quiet with the media, and his status as a backup prior to this season made him less visible. But he also doesn&#8217;t have something really identifiable as a skill, a calling card that would draw someone&#8217;s attention. Ask a fan what Zeke is good at, and you&#8217;ll probably get some furrowed brows as we try to figure it out. He doesn&#8217;t have the power of a Bautista or Donaldson, or the glove of a Pillar or Tulowitzki. He doesn&#8217;t hit for a high average, and isn&#8217;t the base-runner that Dalton Pompey was late in the 2015 season.</p>
<p>The Jays might try to knock Carrera down the depth chart again after this season. It&#8217;s easy to see why the team might look for a better solution. Despite the career year, there&#8217;s nothing really spectacular about Zeke. He&#8217;s not a star, a magnet for the attention of fans and front offices. He&#8217;s just fine. The team may not believe he&#8217;s as good as he showed this season, more a backup than a starter. There are other, bigger names that the team has to accommodate, and more immovable pieces ahead of him in the depth chart. &#8220;Left field&#8221; was the fallback for places the Jays could improve, and will likely be again.</p>
<p>Even in an outfield in flux, it&#8217;s easy to see where Carrera could get squeezed out. Needing some certainty, the Jays will probably bring Kevin Pillar back, living with a below-average bat for his reliable glove. Teoscar Hernandez should be given every chance to grab hold of an everyday spot. Steve Pearce, whose power plays better for a corner outfielder, will need his at-bats as well. Maybe Anthony Alford or Dwight Smith Jr. asserts themselves in spring training, forcing themselves into the conversation. Maybe the Jays spend to make the outfield a strength rather than a question mark.</p>
<p>Carrera will likely get to watch more games from the dugout as 2017 draws to a close, and that&#8217;s a bit of a shame. He was one of the few bright spots in a bad Jays season, someone who actually exceeded expectations. The team and fans may look to replace him, and that&#8217;s all well and good. But if he does come back, and has a spot in the lineup on opening day, maybe that&#8217;s fine too. As one of the few good things about this season, we should be open to the idea that he could surprise us again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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