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		<title>Why Ryan Borucki&#8217;s Debut Outing Suggests Good Things for His Future</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/29/why-ryan-boruckis-debut-outing-suggests-good-things-for-his-future/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2018 17:59:19 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Brendan Panikkar and Joshua Howsam On Tuesday night in Houston, the 9th ranked prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system, pitcher Ryan Borucki made his major league debut. The tall lefty was the first top 10 pitching prospect in the organization to make his debut for the Blue Jays since Roberto Osuna cracked [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="https://twitter.com/Panikkar37" target="_blank">Brendan Panikkar</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam</a></em></p>
<p>On Tuesday night in Houston, the <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36881/toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects-2018-vladito-vladimir-guerrero-jr-bo-bichette-anthony-alford/" target="_blank">9th ranked prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system</a>, pitcher Ryan Borucki made his major league debut. The tall lefty was the first top 10 pitching prospect in the organization to make his debut for the Blue Jays since Roberto Osuna cracked the major league roster in 2015. Blue Jays Twitter and fans all over social media were quite excited for this debut and Borucki did not disappoint.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays threw their 24-year-old right into the fire with his first outing coming at a bandbox ballpark of Minute Maid Park against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros. He finished with six innings pitched, six hits, two earned runs, four walks, and three strikeouts. There&#8217;s nothing overly flashy about those numbers but it was a still a very strong showing for the Illinois native. While not yet confirmed, Borucki has definitely earned himself at least another start. The Blue Jays shouldn&#8217;t feel the need to rush Aaron Sanchez and especially Jaime Garcia back to the rotation. In fact, many want to see more kids make their debut and run with it for the rest of the season so we can see what next year might look like. The good news for Blue Jays fans is based on the one start data we have for Borucki, it sure looks as if he can stick in the big leagues and be successful.</p>
<p>For those who aren&#8217;t familiar, Borucki features a sinker, changeup, and slider. While the slider (of which he only threw six on Tuesday) ended up developing into the third pitch he needed to become a good starting pitcher and to rocket from high-A Dunedin to the big leagues in just over a year, the changeup is Borucki&#8217;s bread and butter pitch. He showed why on Tuesday night.</p>
<p>On 26 changeups thrown (all to righties), the rookie southpaw threw an excellent 18 strikes and had a whiff percentage of 21.4 percent of swings. While that swing and miss rate is not especially high for a changeup, nobody was hitting them hard. Of the 11 swings that made contact with the pitch, only five were actually put into play and all of them for outs.</p>
<p>Part of that dominance was based on command. As you can see from the table below, Borucki showed a tremendous ability to keep the ball on the outer part of the plate to righties. The only changeups that came back over the plate were at the very bottom of the zone, which would still make them tougher to hit.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/borucki-change.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16197" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/borucki-change.jpg" alt="borucki change" width="263" height="261" /></a></p>
<p>When you add in the velocity separation (8.3 mph on average) and the consistent release points (see below), you have the making of a very good change of pace.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/release.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16196" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/release.gif" alt="release" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Another thing that is interesting about Borucki&#8217;s changeup is how much it spins. The 2031 average RPM on his offerings that were registered on Statcast would put him in the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=CH%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2018%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;hfInfield=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfOutfield=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;hfPull=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=10&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=spin_rate&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_pas=0#results" target="_blank">top 17 percent of all pitchers</a> who have thrown at least ten of them this year. As a result, his changeup actually fights gravity at a greater rate than his fastball (7.7&#8243; vs 5.7&#8243;, respectively), which is unusual and would likely cause some issue for batters.</p>
<p>This ties nicely into Borucki&#8217;s fastball, which if Tuesday&#8217;s start is any indication, should probably be getting some praise on par with his wonderful offspeed offering. We saw that his control was a bit erratic early on in his start on Tuesday, likely due to nerves, but as the game went on, Borucki controlled the pitch better and we really got to see the movement that makes the pitch stand out.</p>
<p>Ryan Borucki&#8217;s sinker <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&amp;sp_type=1&amp;year=2018&amp;month=6&amp;day=26&amp;batterX=&amp;pitchSel=621366&amp;game=gid_2018_06_26_tormlb_houmlb_1/&amp;prevGame=gid_2018_06_26_tormlb_houmlb_1/&amp;prevDate=626" target="_blank">averaged 11.23&#8243; of horizontal, arm-side run</a> in his start against the Astros. On its own, that stat probably doesn&#8217;t mean a whole lot to most readers. But when we put that into league context, it becomes clear just how special that is. <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2018&amp;pitch=SI&amp;ds=hmov&amp;lim=50" target="_blank">Here is the list of starters</a> who get more horizontal break on their fastballs than Borucki did in this outing:</p>
<p><strong>Chris Sale</strong></p>
<p>That&#8217;s it. Just one guy who happens to be among the very best pitchers in all of baseball. If we add relievers, the only pitcher who joins the list is the Blue Jays&#8217; own Aaron Loup. Does that mean Borucki could be Chris Sale? No. Sale&#8217;s slider is an all world pitch and he throws much harder. However, Borucki does show a truly unique fastball in this case as unlike Sale and Loup, the Jays&#8217; prospect doesn&#8217;t throw from an extremely low arm slot. Borucki is certainly not over the top, more 3/4s, but both Sale and Loup have vertical releases under 5.5 feet from the ground. Borucki is up over six feet. As such, he is generating movement from an arm slot that nobody in baseball is seeing elsewhere.</p>
<p>This is yet another example of the Blue Jays harboring these types of pitchers with outlier fastballs, <a title="Pulling a Fast One: Have the Blue Jays Found a New Market Inefficiency?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/16/pulling-a-fast-one-have-the-blue-jays-found-a-new-market-inefficiency/" target="_blank">as written about on this site back in February</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Borucki-RH-Sink.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16194" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Borucki-RH-Sink.png" alt="Borucki RH Sink" width="331" height="404" /></a></p>
<p>The photo above gives you a little bit of a sense of what that movement looked like. The original trajectory of the fastball (in orange) is off the 3B side of the plate, but it ends up right over the middle. We also got to see a good example of how it can be used effectively.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s how the individual offerings appeared.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/fasts.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16195" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/fasts-1024x424.png" alt="fasts" width="678" height="280" /></a></p>
<p>We see some of the early wildness suggested above, but take a look at the pitches on the edges. With its extreme arm-side run, Borucki was able to work very effectively to both sides of the plate. You can see how with that heavy movement hitters would have given up on those pitches on the 3B side of the plate, thinking they were balls, or how Borucki would get quite a few chases and weak contact on pitches near or off the first base side of the plate.</p>
<p>By using these fastballs, changing speeds well, and avoiding the heart of the plate with offspeed stuff, Borucki was able to work his way through a start against a first place team loaded with right-handed power hitters.</p>
<p>If his debut outing is a true example of the type of stuff we can expect from Borucki going forward, we could be in for something fun to watch. The combination of the excellent changeup and outlier fastball movement is exactly what Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada has used to succeed. Add in the extra velocity that Borucki has on his fastball (averaging 92.5 mph) and an improving breaking ball, and there&#8217;s a lot of potential for Borucki to exceed his usual back end starter projections.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Three Things to Watch for in the Season Opening Series</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/29/three-things-to-watch-for-in-the-season-opening-series/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2018 13:41:03 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Richard Lee-Sam Evil Empire Once Again The fall of 2017 was a strange one for Blue Jays fans. It was the first year in the last three that our favorite team wasn’t in the American League Championship series. And it was the first year in the last three that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Richard Lee-Sam</em></p>
<h3><strong>Evil Empire Once Again</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The fall of 2017 was a strange one for Blue Jays fans. It was the first year in the last three that our favorite team wasn’t in the American League Championship series. And it was the first year in the last three that the New York Yankees were.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Last fall I found myself doing something I hardly ever do: empathizing with the Yankees. With Toronto on the outside looking in, the Astros and Yankees squared off in what was a very entertaining seven game series.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Yankees weren’t expected to be there. They weren’t even expected to contend. But when the team’s young and mostly homegrown core began to develop faster than anticipated, Brian Cashman pulled the trigger on some midseason trades that fortified the team’s pitching staff and saw the Yankees easily capture the first wild card position.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As much as it was the Yankees, it wasn’t quite the enemy that I was used to. The team was young, fun to watch (aside from their closer) and mashing. It wasn’t filled with marquee free agent acquisitions like the team that won the World Series in 2009. It’s hard to loathe Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and twilight era CC Sabathia the same way you loathe Alex Rodriguez, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and peak prime CC Sabathia. Not every Blue Jays fan was falling for the Yankees charm, but you could probably understand why someone like me was.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Ultimately, the Yankees fell to the eventual world champion Astros. And then the offseason happened. The Yankees re-signed one of the Jays&#8217; top free agent targets in CC Sabathia. They acquired Giancarlo Stanton from Miami without giving up much of anything. The appreciation for Brian Cashman’s savvy and shrewd moves has given way to frustration.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Then, in mid-March, they took advantage of a buyer’s free agent market and shored up their infield by signing Neil Walker and trading for Brandon Drury. They did this all while staying under the luxury tax and positioning themselves for a major shopping spree next winter when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackmon and Josh Donaldson will all hit the free agent market.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is a Yankees team that wants for nothing. They’ve got talent up and down the major league roster, a full cupboard of prospects waiting in the wings and in true Yankee form, all the money in the world to spend.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Just like that the plucky upstart Yankees were the Evil Empire once again. But the reality was that they were always evil. I let my emotions (and a couple seasons of the team only marginally contending) get the best of me. I couldn’t see the forest for all the trees.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Yankees will always be evil and devoid of any redeemable quality. It’s my duty as a Blue Jays fan to never forget it. I won’t let Aaron Judge or anyone else trick me into thinking otherwise. I won’t make that mistake again. The Yankees are and will always be the Evil Empire.</span></p>
<p><em>- ND</em></p>
<h3><strong>Starting Off on the Right Foot</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Today marks the second time in four years that the Blue Jays will take on the Yankees on Opening Day. While Toronto will be looking for a similar result to the</span><a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201504060.shtml"> <span style="font-weight: 400">6-1 win</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that played out back in 2015, they won’t be able to lean on their then-unstoppable ace Drew Hutchison to come out victorious over Masahiro Tanaka this time around.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This year’s matchup will showcase two pitchers who are making their first Opening Day starts at two very different points in their careers, with flame-throwing right-hander Luis Severino taking on the ever-effective and reliable southpaw J.A. Happ. These two have faced off against each other before, with the most recent a rather memorable late-September meeting that saw the</span><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/yankees-and-blue-jays-have-two-altercations/c-203515164"> <span style="font-weight: 400">benches clear due to beanballs</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Severino’s performance has come a long way since then, as he was at the end of what was supposed to be his first full year in the big leagues as a starter. Instead, he struggled mightily as part of the rotation, and spent much of the year shuttling to and from AAA and pitching out of the bullpen. That seems like forever ago now, as Severino earned this year’s Opening Day start through a remarkable 2017 campaign where the right-hander hurled 193.1 innings with a 2.98 ERA and 230 strikeouts.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While sometimes the reasons for a pitcher finally putting it altogether are ambiguous, it was</span><a href="https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news/yankees-luis-severino-throws-changeup-more/c-217827834"> <span style="font-weight: 400">well documented</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> throughout the 2017 season that Severino’s re-discovered changeup had a</span><a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/luis-severino-is-the-als-best-other-pitcher/"> <span style="font-weight: 400">profound impact</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> on his success. By increasing the separation in velocity between his change and his fastball, Severino gained confidence in the pitch and used it to round up a dangerous repertoire that he leaned on all the way to third place in AL Cy Young voting.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As daunting as it is going up against a young ace like Severino, the Blue Jays may be able to thrive today as</span><a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33263/teamId/14"> <span style="font-weight: 400">historically they have hit rather well</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> against the right-hander. Even during Severino’s breakout 2017 campaign, the Blue Jays managed to score 7 runs in 12.2 innings off of him, including a game in which he was pulled in the 6th after giving up five runs in early May.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, and Devon Travis have all put up good numbers against Severino in the past, especially in the power department, combining to slug .667 against the 24-year old. Here’s to hoping that familiarity with one of the American League’s best pitchers leads to some more Opening Day success for the Blue Jays, and sets the tone for an entertaining campaign.</span></p>
<p><em>- AM</em></p>
<h3><strong>A Crucial Season Series</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays embark on a year where nobody’s expecting much outside of being in the wildcard conversation. Pundits all over the United States have already deemed this a two-horse race between two well-oiled machines from Boston and New York before the gun has even gone off. But the underdogs north of the border are in a position throw a wrench into everybody’s Red Sox and Yankees pennant race fantasies by playing up to their levels in the 38 times that they meet those two goliaths. Competing for the American League East crown is something beyond the wildest fantasies of even the most naïve Blue Jays supporter, but a good showing in the season series against both of those teams might just put that little spark of hope into everybody’s minds.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is more than just playing spoiler; the difference between winning and losing a season series against the Yankees could be the difference between putting pressure on the division leaders or listlessly limping into the finish line of another lost season. Last year, they fell flat on their face and needed to rely on other teams to even begin to fuel their delusional playoff dreams.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Blue Jays want to be contenders for any playoff spot, all of these divisional games are huge, but more so when the two teams you’re supposed to be chasing possesses the power to leave you in the dust by the all-star break.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">At the very least, you solidify yourselves as a wildcard team at the end of the year. With luck, you’re unfurling at least one more banner. In sports, 38 games are usually nothing more than just a small sample size, but a strong showing and stealing a few series against the Bronx Bombers and the Red Sox could end up paying dividends come October.</span></p>
<p>It all starts today.</p>
<p><em>- RLS</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>BP Toronto&#8217;s Bold Predictions for 2018</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Mar 2018 10:58:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[It’s almost baseball season again! All of us here at BP Toronto have consulted our crystal balls and our Ouija boards so we&#8217;re ready to predict the future of the 2018 Toronto Blue Jays. Qualms? Questions? Comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below. RECORD IN 2018 Andrew Arnold [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s almost baseball season again! All of us here at BP Toronto have consulted our crystal balls and our Ouija boards so we&#8217;re ready to predict the future of the 2018 Toronto Blue Jays. Qualms? Questions? Comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below.</p>
<h2><b>RECORD IN 2018</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>84-78</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Good enough (ish) for play-off contention (ish).</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>88-72</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I’d like to think they’re a playoff team.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>69-93 </b><span style="font-weight: 400">A massive firesale at deadline precedes Sept 1 Vlad Call-up.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>82-80</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Like the late aughts: Good enough to tease, not good enough to be in it come September.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>89-73</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Rotation quietly the best in AL East; the offence scrapes by.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>83-79</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s a thin line between success and failure and they have to walk it 38 times against two powerhouses.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>86-76</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; “Raising the floor” ought to be worth six or so wins over last season. Factor in better health and they’ll be in the mix.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>75-87</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Mid-Season trades. Death to 2018!</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>85-77</b><span style="font-weight: 400">- They should be good enough to at least keep things interesting. That&#8217;s better than pre-2015!</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>87-75</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Third place in the AL East, but should be sufficient to beat out the Twins and Angels for the second Wild Card.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>86-76</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Just good enough to keep things exciting. Also a few people already took 85-77.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>85-77</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; David Price’s arm explodes. CC Sabathia does the dirty dance with father time.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>81-81</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I took the the coward’s way out here. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>83-79</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Not great, Bob! (but still okay)</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>90-72</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; They have talent to win 87-90 games.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>88-74</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; They have “raised the floor”, optimistic they reached this level.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>91-71</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Attempting to be the most optimistic here.</span></p>
<h2><b>BEST POSITION PLAYER</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson &#8211; </b><span style="font-weight: 400">Because he’s Josh Donaldson.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Nothing to this point has warranted any other answer.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Russell Martin</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He&#8217;ll have a comeback year at the plate and continue to work well with the staff.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Easy pick here.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Donaldson’s calf issues persist, Smoak once again leads the offence.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Randal Grichuk</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I’m not 100% sure how, but finding a power hitter in ‘the rough’ is kind of what the Jays do, right?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; No need to get cute with this one. He’s the best position player on the team. And it’s a contract year.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I couldn’t even come up with a clever reason to pick someone else.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If it’s anybody else, something has gone seriously wrong.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A proud guy headed for free agency. Expect the usual Donaldson level of performance, and he’ll draw his name into the lineup 150+ times.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Too easy to pass up this choice.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Everyone else wrote Josh Donaldson. If he stays healthy (and Nick Dika and I don’t eat any Pizza).</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; There really isn’t anyone that comes close to challenging him for this&#8230;at least until Vlad gets called up.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Honestly, who else would it be?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Duh.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If it isn’t, the season has probably gone poorly.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Josh Donaldson</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Calling this one for anyone else is attempting to be too clever.</span></p>
<h2><b>BEST PITCHER</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marcus Stroman</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Because everyone will almost for sure choose Sanchez. It will probably be Sanchez. Fine, I choose </span><b>Aaron Sanchez.</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> Although it could easily be </span><b>J.A. Happ, Jaime Garcia, or Marco Estrada.</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> Final answer? </span><b>Roberto Osuna.</b><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>J.A. Happ</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Being bold by going with the bland ace.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Roberto Osuna</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Coward&#8217;s way out here.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I (DON’T) GOT BLISTERS ON ME FINGERS.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Don’t forget the glorious gifs he bestowed upon us in 2016, he’s still filthy.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I can’t bet against a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, can I? </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; 2017 was an aberration. The 2016 version of Sanchez is the real deal.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Not like we don’t have precedent for this.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> -Sorry, Marco. I&#8217;m going off brand. Sanchez is healthy and is really, really good.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s a legitimate toss-up between Sanchez and Marcus Stroman in my eyes, but only one has been fully healthy this spring.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This is a motivational tactic to fire up Marcus Stroman, but also Sanchez is really good.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He steals the mojo out of Estrada’s changeup, and all of a sudden he’s MLB’s best pitcher.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400">- That velo and that curveball.  </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I am fully ready for the Aaron Sanchez 2018 revenge tour.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/mstrooo6/status/576013556354809856" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/mstrooo6/status/576013556354809856</a></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Marco Estrada</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Sanchez would be the easy pick but I think Estrada will rebound from the struggles of last season.  He will quietly be a reliable force in the rotation.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He will have a credible case for best in the league after Sale.</span></p>
<h2><b>BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE YEAR</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>Luke Maile </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- If the definition of “break-out” means “somewhat playable” I think he’s got a shot.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Joe Biagini</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It would be interesting if he pitches his way into the rotation.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kevin Pillar</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I think he hits .300 and cements himself as a top of the lineup force.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Teoscar Hernandez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; There is lots of opportunity in the outfield for him to shine.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Yangervis Solarte </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- All he needs to break out is a power spike, which could happen at the Dome. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Anthony Alford</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A late start that results in a call-up when Pillar finally hits a wall that hits back is the Cinderella story I need.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Randal Grichuk</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; A change of scenery might just do the trick. Factor in his offseason work and he could very well be a pleasant surprise.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Troy Tulowitzki</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Is a re-breakout a thing? Or did I just read “break” and instantly think of him?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He may not play 155 games, but Travis is going to be great for 130.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Anthony Alford</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Alford will be a regular at the top of the Blue Jays lineup’ by mid-June, and neither he nor the team will be looking back.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Danny Jansen</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; We’re one Russell Martin injury away. Lock the sauna doors.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Randal Grichuk</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s better than last year’s RF. Based on 2017-2018 change, it wins, objectively.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Anthony Alford</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This is more “please God let it be Anthony Alford” than knowing it’s going to be Anthony Alford.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kevin Pillar </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- THIS IS THE YEAR.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Teoscar Hernandez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- That power with less strikeouts? Yes please.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Randal Grichuk</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He&#8217;ll be given the security of a full time job and will excel in the AL East ballparks.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Randal Grichuk</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Mid-30’s power, great D and enough speed to steal 20 or more if the bases are not clogged in front of him.</span></p>
<h2><b>COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Andrew Arnold &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- I think he’s set return to his previous form.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s way too fun for me to give up on.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Jose Bautista</b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Just kidding. Aaron Sanchez.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Can I use the “blisters” thing again? No?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Russell Martin </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Recaptures his 20+ HR stroke while providing solid OBP.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400">Greg Wisniewski &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He has the digits to prove it.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; We know how good he can be when healthy, and he finally has a decent enough backup to give him regular rest.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales &#8211; </b><span style="font-weight: 400">I think people returning from injuries shouldn’t count toward this award.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Seung-hwan Oh</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s probably actually Sanchez, but Oh is going to be the &#8220;Final Boss&#8221; again, instead of “Oh no, he’s pitching again.”</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The fact that there are so many viable options for this category is yet another damnation of the 2017 season.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Seung-hwan Oh</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Being turned away by the Rangers represents rock bottom to me, so here’s to the comeback.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; #MoralesTruthersNeedToShareWhatTheyAreSmoking</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Because you’re only injury prone until you’re not. And they&#8217;ll give him many off days.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Even the word “blister” itself will be rendered a distant dream .</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Aaron Sanchez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- <a href="https://twitter.com/mstrooo6/status/576013556354809856" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/mstrooo6/status/576013556354809856</a></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211;  He will return to the numbers of 2015 and 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Devon Travis</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This time for sure.</span></p>
<h2><b>BIGGEST BUST</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>Steve Pearce </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- DFA’d before the end of May.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The potential outcomes usually don’t look great for aging one-tool players.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Teoscar Hernandez </b><span style="font-weight: 400">It was between him and Stormy Daniels. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Justin Smoak</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This feels inevitable.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Troy Tulowitzki </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Again.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; He’s going to decline like aging DHs do, causing us to ask questions that clutch, late-inning home runs can’t answer.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; <strong>Kevin Pillar</strong></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; No chance he hits .432/.457/.659 like he did this spring. We’ve seen this play before.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Bo Bichette</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; His wacky swing gets exposed and he tumbles down the lists.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><span style="font-weight: 400"><b>Steve Pearce</b></span><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The man who can&#8217;t stay healthy will lose his job to Teoscar Hernández early.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s hard to say a guy coming off a 97 wRC+ has bust potential, but there’s been enough hype that I think we’ll be disappointed.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Teoscar Hernandez</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I think we’ll be seeing a lot less of him than we expected a few months ago. Does that count?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Older, slower, and still the same ground ball smasher.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kendrys Morales</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Age (and a high groundball rate) waits for no man (and especially no power hitter)</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Troy Tulowitzki</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I still love him, but at this point he&#8217;s just like a bag of broken bones.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>the New York Yankees </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Yeah, I said it.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Ryan Tepera</b><span style="font-weight: 400">-  The number of pitches and innings accumulated last season and the unpredictability of bullpen arms will result in disappoint for fans.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Kevin Pillar</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; this is only relative to the team because there’s no one here that I expect to fail.</span></p>
<h2><b>KEY TO 2018 SUCCESS</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Arnold</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rotational Health</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; This team can compete with a healthy rotation. They can’t, without.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Andrew Munn</em> &#8211; </span><b>Happy and Healthy Minor League Depth</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; #PayThePlayers</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Bennett Brauer</em> &#8211; </span><b>Early Start</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I know, I know: Health. But as we saw last year, it’s impossible to play from behind in such a hard league. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Dave Church</em> &#8211; </span><b>Don’t Get Hurt</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; If the guys stay healthy, they’ll be in it. Mostly.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Elie Waitzer</em> &#8211; <strong>Jaime Garcia</strong> &#8211; He has to hold down the 5th starter fort so they don’t need many spot starts. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Greg Wisniewski</em> &#8211; </span><b>Breakouts</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Need a little pixie dust to sprinkle on the role-players so they play like All-Stars until the inevitable injuries pass.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jenn Smith</em> &#8211; </span><b>Don’t Dig Yourself a Hole</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Win more than eight games in the first month of the season. That, and a strong starting five.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Jon Shell</em> &#8211; </span><b>Vets Build Value Leading to Great Trades </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Can we stop pretending we’re not focused on 2020?</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Joshua Howsam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Bullpen Rebounds</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Oh, Clippard, and Axford: Three guys who need to re-live past success.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Kyle Matte</em> &#8211; </span><b>The Offense </b><span style="font-weight: 400">- Over the last three years, the offense has had a wRC+ of 117 (1st), 103 (6th), and 91 (24th). If that doesn’t turn around, it doesn’t matter how good the pitching is/will be.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Michael Passador</em> &#8211; </span><b>Don’t Let Pillar Hit leadoff if Travis Gets Hurt</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; It’s really health, though. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Mike Sonne</em> &#8211; </span><b>Raise the Floor</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Tulo is hurt, Travis gets hurt, but the replacements end up being even better. </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Nick Dika</em> &#8211; </span><b>Smoak Follows Up His Breakout</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; The Jays pitching staff should be able to keep them in games but Smoak needs to follow up on his breakout 2017 to give the Jays another big bat in the middle of the lineup.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Rachael McDaniel</em> &#8211; </span><b>Rotation Health</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; I still don&#8217;t know who Nick Tepesch is and I don&#8217;t want to remember.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Richard Lee-Sam</em> &#8211; </span><b>Consistency</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Health, no prolonged slumps, and SPs 1-5 pitching quality innings.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Sean Addis</em> &#8211; </span><b>Starting Rotation</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Simple, if this team is to contend it will need the pitching to reach its potential.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><em>Tammy Rainey</em> &#8211; </span><b>Big April</b><span style="font-weight: 400"> &#8211; Achieve and maintain momentum.</span></p>
<h2><b>ONE BOLD PREDICTION</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Andrew Arnold</strong> &#8211; <em>Randal Grichuk starts using fellow high school alumni BJ Thomas’ “Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head” as his walk-up music. Is promptly put directly behind Donaldson in the batting order.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Andrew Munn</strong> &#8211; <em>The Raptors and Blue Jays accidentally schedule their Parliament Hill championship visits on the same day, resulting in the best photos of the decade.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Bennett Brauer</strong> &#8211; <em>They throw a no-hitter this year. On the road. Against Baltimore. </em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Dave Church</strong> &#8211; <em>Two thirds of the opening day lineup is benched or gone by the end of the season.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Elie Waitzer</strong> &#8211; <em>Dominic Leone gets the closer job in St. Louis, before losing it to Conner Greene.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Greg Wisniewski</strong> &#8211; <em>Jose Bautista returns as hitting coach after an abysmal two months by the offence. His methods allow the Jays to out-homer the Yankees for the rest of the season.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Jenn Smith</strong> &#8211; <em>Someone other than Kevin Pillar will be the Jays’ starting center fielder by midseason.</em> </span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Jon Shell</strong> &#8211; </span><em><span style="font-weight: 400">After another bad start, attendance plummets below 2.5M &#8211; And all hell breaks loose between Shapiro and Rogers; team is “sold” to Ed Rogers.</span></em><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Joshua Howsam</strong> &#8211; <em>Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman finish 1-2 in AL ERA. Sanchez crushes Stroman in Cy Young votes though because of media disdain for &#8220;6.&#8221;</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Kyle Matte</strong> &#8211; <em>The Blue Jays are in playoff contention in September, and the offense is carried by a trio of rookie hitters.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Michael Passador</strong> &#8211; <em>Buck and Pat don’t mention Derek Jeter until the fifth inning on Opening Day.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Mike Sonne</strong> &#8211; <em>Marcus Stroman figures out how to strike out hitters, finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting, and demands a trade in the off season.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Nick Dika</strong> &#8211; <em>Yangervis Solarte becomes the team’s primary shortstop at some point during the regular season….and doesn’t make Josh upset with his defensive play either.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Rachael McDaniel</strong> -<em> In a shocking turn of events, the Jays go 19-0 against the Yankees. Neither Aaron Judge nor Giancarlo Stanton homer at Rogers Centre.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Richard Lee-Sam</strong> &#8211; <em>The Blue Jays stay within striking distance all season. Pennant race!</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Sean Addis</strong> &#8211; <em>The Blue Jays will have the best bullpen in the AL East.</em></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400"><strong>Tammy Rainey</strong> &#8211; <em>They’ll have a realistic chance to win the AL East into September.</em></span></p>
<p>And that&#8217;s it! Some of us will be right, some of us will be wrong, and some of us will look downright silly.</p>
<p>Enjoy the season!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo From George Hodan</em></p>
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		<title>Joe Biagini&#8217;s Problem with Runners in Scoring Position</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/13/joe-biaginis-risp-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/13/joe-biaginis-risp-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Feb 2018 16:06:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15122</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Ryan McCrea This is a guest post from one of our readers. If you ever have something you&#8217;d like to share or an idea you need help developing, please email us baseballprospectustoronto@gmail.com and we&#8217;ll happily take a look.  Would you believe me if I told you that Joe Biagini did a better job minimizing contact quality last [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><strong>By Ryan McCrea</strong></p>
<p><em>This is a guest post from one of our readers. If you ever have something you&#8217;d like to share or an idea you need help developing, please email us baseballprospectustoronto@gmail.com and we&#8217;ll happily take a look. </em></p>
<p>Would you believe me if I told you that Joe Biagini did a better job minimizing contact quality last year than Marcus Stroman?  I didn’t believe it at first, but it turns out that the former Rule 5 pick performed slightly better in some certain contact quality metrics than the Blue Jays&#8217; ace. The batted ball data is in the table below: (Blue Jays pitchers with a minimum 500 pitches. Showing data for batted balls only)</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-first.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15123" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-first.png" alt="Biag first" width="257" height="302" /></a></p>
<p>xwOBA, or expected wOBA, is a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba"><span style="text-decoration: underline">statcast proxy for contact quality</span></a>, based on launch speed and angle. This number is an expected rate of wOBA based on the average result at that launch angle/speed. Last year, the average xwOBA for Blue Jays pitchers included in this analysis was 0.344.</p>
<p>This is where I find things become interesting. Despite this success in limiting hard contact on the whole, Stroman outperformed Biagini in a number of other important metrics, including DRA. In fact, while Biagini’s contact quality was fourth best on the team by this metric, his ERA was third highest among the group. The only two pitchers whose ERAs were higher were Francisco Liarino and Mike Bolsinger, who came in at 11<sup>th</sup> and 13<sup>th</sup> highest xwOBA respectively.</p>
<p>To see why this happened, we need to dissect this information further. For Biagini, this was a case of how situational pitching can ruin you if you let it. Here&#8217;s how runners in scoring position affected the results of the same analysis:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15124" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-1.png" alt="Biag 1" width="486" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>Look at the two Biaginis! At the very top and bottom. Without runners in scoring position, Biagini was the best pitcher on the roster in terms of limiting contact quality. But if an opponent put a guy in scoring position he started to get lit up. Here’s that same table again but sorted by the differences in xwOBA, taking xwOBA with RISP and subtracting xwOBA without RISP. (A negative number would suggest a better performance with RISP.)</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/biag-31.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15129" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/biag-31.png" alt="biag 3" width="339" height="312" /></a></p>
<p>The contact quality surrendered by Biagini with runners past first was <em>dramatically</em> higher. To offer some perspective, that same difference (0.1447) is larger than the gap between Mike Trout’s wOBA (1st @ 0.437) and Kevin Pillar’s (130th @ 0.302).</p>
<p>You must wonder what some possible explanations of this could be. Could it be sign stealing? Pitch selection? First, let’s look at the 2016 table of differences and see if this is a potential trend. (Batted ball data for 2016 Jays pitchers with min 500 pitches.)</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/biag-32.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15130" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/biag-32.png" alt="biag 3" width="340" height="296" /></a></p>
<p>With runners in scoring position in 2016, Biagini actually pitched to <em>better</em> contact quality than with the bases empty. He was coming out of the bullpen more in 2016 than last year, but it still leaves our question of consistency unresolved. Craig Edwards had similar results in an <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-statcast-reveals-about-contact-management-as-a-pitcher-skill/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">earlier piece</span></a> on statcasts’s xwOBA consistency.</p>
<p>It doesn’t seem like Biagini’s pitch selection was much at fault either. Based on the table below, his distribution of pitches with and without RISP last year was different, but still very similar.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-pitch-type.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15127" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Biag-pitch-type.png" alt="Biag pitch type" width="624" height="133" /></a></p>
<p>What we can see though is that the roughly 8% drop in his fastball usage is something to consider. If you care to see the batted ball xwOBA splits against each of his pitch types with and without RISP, below is a chart instead of a table. I chose to do this because it gives a better idea of the magnitude of the difference here.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15128" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Picture1.png" alt="Picture1" width="600" height="393" /></a></p>
<p>While every pitch performed slightly worse with runners in scoring position, the fastballs clearly suffered the greatest setback. I do wonder if this was the reason Biagini stayed away from the fastballs a little more when runners were in scoring position.</p>
<p>All of this said, I don’t know the <em><i>real</i></em> explanation for these 2017 struggles. Much like the conclusion in Craig Edwards piece, the quality of batted balls surrendered by a pitcher lies much more in the hands of the hitter. Perhaps Blue Jays fans have a reason to be more optimistic about Biagini’s outlook for 2018. We’ve seen that in 2016 he didn’t seem to have the same problem with RISP that undeniably inflated his 2017 stats.</p>
<p>There’s no denying that when his stuff is working, Joe Biagini&#8217;s ability to control contact quality is quite impressive. Assuming this was just bad luck, I’d be willing to take the under on his RISP spread coming into this coming year, which would suggest that there&#8217;s more upside in his numbers.</p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/02/baseball-prospectus-top-10-blue-jays-prospects/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/02/baseball-prospectus-top-10-blue-jays-prospects/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2018 15:16:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14803</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As part of their continuing series ranking the top prospects in each organization, Baseball Prospectus today released their top 10 Blue Jays prospects. At that link you will find full scouting reports for the top 10 players listed below, as well as quick breakdowns of the next 10 and a list of the top 10 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As part of their continuing series ranking the top prospects in each organization, Baseball Prospectus today released their <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36881/toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects-2018-vladito-vladimir-guerrero-jr-bo-bichette-anthony-alford/" target="_blank">top 10 Blue Jays prospects.</a> At that link you will find full scouting reports for the top 10 players listed below, as well as quick breakdowns of the next 10 and a list of the top 10 25 and under players in the organization.</p>
<p>Here are the top 10:</p>
<p>1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<br />
2. Bo Bichette<br />
3. Anthony Alford<br />
4. Nate Pearson<br />
5. Conner Greene<br />
6. Logan Warmoth<br />
7. Danny Jansen<br />
8. Sean Reid-Foley<br />
9. Ryan Borucki<br />
10. T.J. Zeuch</p>
<p>While you should definitely check out the post to see all of the aforementioned bonus coverage, we also thought you might enjoy reading/hearing some of the times we&#8217;ve had a chance to speak with some of the top 10 prospects.</p>
<h4>Anthony Alford</h4>
<p>Back in 2016, just after his first breakout campaign with the Lansing Lugnuts and Dunedin Blue Jays, Joshua Howsam had the chance <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/06/why-anthony-alford-is-ready-to-take-the-next-step/" target="_blank">to speak to Toronto&#8217;s number three prospect</a> about everything ranging from his choices to leave Mississippi State&#8217;s #1 ranked football team to how he planned to make it to the big leagues.</p>
<h4>Danny Jansen</h4>
<p>Much more recently, Sean Addis and Jenn Smith traveled down to Buffalo to speak with Danny Jansen following his tremendous 2017 campaign. Jansen <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/04/danny-jansen-is-ready-for-the-next-challenge/" target="_blank">was very open about his desire to make it to the big leagues</a> and play in front of a big crowd and knows he&#8217;ll need to work on his defending in order to get and stay there.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KJDYoFhQjVM?ecver=1" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
<em>Video produced and directed by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/seanaddis/" target="_blank">Sean Addis</a></em></p>
<h4 style="text-align: left">T.J. Zeuch</h4>
<p>Like Jansen, Zeuch had his first true taste of professional success in 2017. The former first round pick 3.38 for the Dunedin Blue Jays before getting hurt, then had a very nice turn in the Arizona Fall League. <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/atw-episode-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell/" title="ATW Episode 76: AFL and a Fond Farewell" target="_blank">He joined the Artificial Turf Wars podcast</a> before that AFL appearance to speak about everything from choosing a university, his struggles with his injury, and how he planned to approach the AFL.</p>
<audio class="wp-audio-shortcode" id="audio-14803-2" preload="none" style="width: 100%; visibility: hidden;" controls="controls"><source type="audio/mpeg" src="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/artificialturfwars/2017/09/28/atw-episode-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell.mp3?_=2" /><a href="http://www.blogtalkradio.com/artificialturfwars/2017/09/28/atw-episode-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell.mp3">http://www.blogtalkradio.com/artificialturfwars/2017/09/28/atw-episode-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell.mp3</a></audio>
<p>We hope you enjoyed those little extra bits. It was a tough 2017, but there is clearly some hope for 2018 and beyond. </p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Fixing the Blue Jays Walk-Up Songs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/05/fixing-the-blue-jays-walk-up-songs/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/05/fixing-the-blue-jays-walk-up-songs/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 11:28:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14458</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Nick Dika, Mike Sonne, and Joshua Howsam The slow crawl of the early offseason is no fun for anyone. Especially when Shohei Ohtani wants nothing to do with you Toronto and you have a feeling the “impact bat” that your favourite team’s general manager keeps talking about looks a lot more like Josh Harrison [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>By <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/nickdika/" target="_blank">Nick Dika</a>, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mikesonne/" target="_blank">Mike Sonne</a>, and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/joshuahowsam/" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam</a></em></p>
<p>The slow crawl of the early offseason is no fun for anyone. Especially when Shohei Ohtani wants nothing to do with you Toronto and you have a feeling the “impact bat” that your favourite team’s general manager keeps talking about looks a lot more like Josh Harrison than J.D. Martinez. Until the hot stove starts to heat up, we are left to fend for ourselves when it comes to talking baseball.</p>
<p>So we started looking backwards. Thinking about the evolution of the Blue Jays over the last few years, we remembered that the Jays became contenders because of two key deadline additions in 2015. We&#8217;re speaking of course of LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe. By bringing in walkout tracks like &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmiiW936jqw" target="_blank">They Want EFX</a>&#8221; and &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvaEJzoaYZk" target="_blank">Copperhead Road</a>,&#8221; respectively, they joined Chris Colabello&#8217;s &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB1D9wWxd2w" target="_blank">Return of the Mack</a>&#8221; in helping lead the club to success through great music. Hawkins, Lowe, and Colabello moved on, but thankfully Michael Saunders showed up with &#8220;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glEiPXAYE-U" target="_blank">Hypnotize</a>&#8221; to help keep the team afloat just long enough to earn a wild card berth in 2016. Then those songs disappeared in 2017 and we all know what happened. But a new year means new opportunities. So with that in mind, here are some of our suggestions for new walk-up songs for some of our favorite Blue Jays.</p>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5zw04WxCc" target="_blank">‘My Generation’ by The Who</a></strong></p>
<p>Consider Stroman’s new walkout song as the latest shot fired in the offseason war of words between Stro and his many haters and critics. This classic Who anthem, which portrays a generation of older people as people who are out of touch with the youth of today is perfect for Stroman. I’m guessing Roger Daltrey wasn’t talking about bat flips and emotive on-field celebrations but the point still stands. Given the current state of the Blue Jays offence, Stroman may continue to pinch hit in 2018 as well.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUvmDQ3HY" target="_blank">&#8216;Without Me&#8217; by Eminem</a></strong></p>
<p>Guess who&#8217;s back, back again (I mean seriously, <em>four</em> trips to the DL?!). If the blister problems really are behind him, Sanchez is going to want to let people know not just that he&#8217;s here to stay, but also remind them that the rotation just felt so empty without his ace-level performance. It&#8217;s both a confidence boost and a nice, subtle dig at his former best buddy.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Kevin Pillar &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8aT9oRp95A" target="_blank">&#8217;46 &amp; 2&#8242; by Tool</a></strong></p>
<p>Sometimes the best way to convey data is in a format where the consumer gets the same messages through multiple mediums. This song accomplishes a few things &#8211; it’s a driving song with an absolutely amazing drum solo, but it also accurately tells the fans in the stands what Kevin’s K to BB ratio was. That might save Rogers some money from displaying those stats on the video boards as well.</p>
<p>-MS</p>
<p><strong>Roberto Osuna &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICecxOfmFtU" target="_blank">&#8216;Wake Up&#8217; by Rage Against the Machine</a></strong></p>
<p>This song has just about everything you could want for the young closer. It has a nice hook, some pounding guitars to pump up the fans, and most of all, a reminder to Osuna to battle through the fatigue generated from being the most overworked pitcher of his age in the PITCHF/x era according to Mike&#8217;s Fatigue Units. As an added bonus, Osuna actually <em>was</em> born when it came out.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkK8g6FMEXE" target="_blank">‘Don’t Want to Miss A Thing’  by Aerosmith</a></strong></p>
<p>For my money, Donaldson has used some of the best walk up music in recent Blue Jays’ history. When he first came to Toronto, the Bringer of Rain walked up to Phil Collins’ ‘In the Air Tonight’ – complete with signature drum fill. This season JD was using the equally great ‘So Fresh, So Clean’ by Outkast. Given Donaldson’s impending free agency, ‘I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing’ is a fitting swan song (wipes away tears) for the Jays best position player and a reminder to enjoy him while he&#8217;s here.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ</strong> &#8211; <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGL2rytTraA" target="_blank">&#8220;Milkshake&#8221; by Kellis</a> (Yet to be released remix)</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ rose to Canadian prominence when it was discovered he didn&#8217;t know that milk came in bags. Because he&#8217;s making mad bank, he was able to finance a special remix with Kellis this offseason to honour the incident, while simultaneously paying homage to the Jays great attendance numbers the past 3 seasons. &#8220;My Milkbag brings all the fans to the yard.&#8221;</p>
<p>-MS</p>
<p><strong>Teoscar Hernández &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1AH3p8JlMg" target="_blank">&#8217;15 minutes&#8217; by Barry Manilow</a></strong></p>
<p>Teoscar burst onto the Toronto scene by clubbing eight home runs and hitting .261/.305/.602 during the month of September following his pickup by the Blue Jays. Now the pressure is on the 25 year old to show that it wasn&#8217;t a flash in the pan and that he can have some level of lasting fame and success.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-rUt_nY3q8" target="_blank">‘Slow and Low’ by the Beastie Boys</a></strong></p>
<p>A tribute to the signature pitch that makes Estrada so effective – and a reminder to keep it down in the zone. Don’t want to leave that changeup hanging.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p><strong>Troy Tulowitzki  and Devon Travis &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt1Pwfnh5pc" target="_blank">&#8216;Hurt&#8217; by Nine Inch Nails (Johnny Cash version)</a></strong></p>
<p>Troy got curious on his iPod and started playing this song before a game one day. Unfortunately, when he landed on first base awkwardly and hurt himself that day, he definitely could still feel it. The same applies for Tulo’s double play partner, Devon Travis. Hopefully, Johnny Cash’s career resurgence with ‘Hurt’ is a bit of a metaphor for the Blue Jays middle infield &#8211; someone whose heyday was behind him, but is launched back into the spotlight in peak form because they borrow someone else’s material (let’s say this is one of JD’s bats).</p>
<p>-MS</p>
<p><strong>Carlos Ramirez &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBkjcvNztKQ" target="_blank">&#8216;Zero&#8217; by the Smashing Pumpkins</a></strong></p>
<p>From July 15, 2016 to September 19, 2017, Carlos Ramirez threw a shutout. When you go more than a full calendar year without giving up a run, you shout that out to the heavens. Emptiness is loneliness and loneliness is cleanliness and cleanliness is godliness and God is empty, just like the scoreboard when Ramirez finishes his inning of work.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Kendrys Morales</strong></p>
<p><b>Innings 1-8: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcCNcgoyG_0" target="_blank">&#8216;Slow Ride&#8217; by Foghat</a><br />
Innings 9+: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L53gjP-TtGE" target="_blank">&#8216;Power&#8217; by Kanye West</a></b></p>
<p>Let&#8217;s face it. Watching Kendrys slog it out on the basepaths was a bit of a chore. And for someone who hits the ball so hard, he sure beats it into the ground a lot. But when the game is on the line? Hoo boy is Morales the guy you want up. His four game-tying or game-winning home runs in the 9th inning or later last year led all of baseball. No one man should have all that power. That&#8217;s why he can&#8217;t turn it on until late.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Russell Martin &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0" target="_blank">‘Respect’ by Aretha Franklin</a></strong></p>
<p>Despite providing tremendous defensive value through his pitch framing abilities, Martin has seen a pretty significant drop in the amount of runners he has thrown out on the bases over the past two years. This Motown classic should light a fire under Martin and make potential base stealers take notice &#8211; Russ is not to be trifled with.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p><strong>Danny Barnes &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdqoNKCCt7A" target="_blank">&#8216;Don&#8217;t You (Forget About Me)&#8217; by Simple Minds</a></strong></p>
<p>Despite long stretches of effectiveness, Barnes is often forgotten about when discussing the depth in the Blue Jays bullpen. While it&#8217;s likely due to his less than exciting repertoire of 92 mph fourseamers and changeups and his &#8220;create-a-player no. 2&#8243; look, Barnes is worth remembering. This ditty made famous by the Breakfast Club should help him out in this regard.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Aledmys Díaz &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Whgn_iE5uc" target="_blank">‘Smooth’ by Carlos Santana ft. Rob Thomas</a></strong></p>
<p>I had to include the newest Blue Jay. No real reason for this, other than it’s a real good song and it’d be nice to hear a few times during a summer ball game while enjoying a couple cold ones. (Ed. note: Mike is the only one of us who feels it would be nice to hear ‘Smooth’ a few times per game. Also, he isn’t fooling anyone when he says he’s only enjoying ‘a couple’ of cold ones).</p>
<p>-MS</p>
<p><strong>Joe Biagini &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJjRWyqL7nA" target="_blank">&#8216;Let&#8217;s Get Serious&#8217; by Jermaine Jackson</a></strong></p>
<p>Biagini&#8217;s first entry in the bigs, &#8216;Tears of a Clown&#8217; by Smokey Robinson, was pretty perfect for the&#8230;unpredictable righty. But like Jermaine&#8217;s first attempt at breaking out on his own, Biagini&#8217;s transition to starting didn&#8217;t exactly go perfectly. This song is also about getting serious, which is great for the third year pitcher, but it&#8217;s completely ridiculous at the same time. Sound like anybody we know?</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Justin Smoak &#8211; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg" target="_blank">&#8216;Mama Said Knock You Out&#8217; by LL Cool J</a></strong></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t call it a comeback. Seriously, just don&#8217;t. Smoak was not coming back to anything. Why was he <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB_PLAYERS/status/926572298508886016?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fjaysjournal.com%2F2017%2F11%2F06%2Fblue-jays-justin-smoak-finalist-for-comeback-player-of-the-year%2F" target="_blank">nominated for that award</a>? Just pure nonsense.</p>
<p>-JH</p>
<p><strong>Jose Bautista – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vQpW9XRiyM" target="_blank">‘Glory Days’ by Bruce Springsteen</a></strong></p>
<p>2017 was a tough year for the franchise icon. Despite hitting over 40 home runs just two seasons ago, it appears as though age may have caught up to Bautista. This classic Springsteen song will remind Jose of simpler times – times when Jose’s bat speed let him turn on those “speedballs” that Bruce is singing about in the first verse. With the team deciding to decline his option for 2018, it’s looking like whatever Bautista’s walk up song is, it will be blaring through the PA speakers at the Trop next season.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p><strong>Joey Votto – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxgqpCdOKak" target="_blank">‘Hold On, We’re Going Home’ by Drake</a></strong></p>
<p>Take on all that money, Blue Jays’ front office. Obviously the song we want to be Votto’s walk-up song, not the song he wants to be his walk-up song. The NL MVP runner up is more of a <a href="http://mlbplatemusic.com/player/Joey-Votto">Kendrick man</a>, anyway.</p>
<p>-ND</p>
<p>Sounds like a winner.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Best of BP Toronto: Our Favourite Pieces of the Year</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/30/the-best-of-bp-toronto-our-favourite-pieces-of-the-year/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Oct 2017 14:15:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14021</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been an interesting last twelve months in Blue Jays land. From a near World Series berth to only narrowly edging out the Baltimore Orioles to finish above last place in the AL East. No matter whether the tone of the time has been happy or sad, we feel like our writers have done a great job covering the team. As [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>It&#8217;s been an interesting last twelve months in Blue Jays land. From a near World Series berth to only narrowly edging out the Baltimore Orioles to finish above last place in the AL East. No matter whether the tone of the time has been happy or sad, we feel like our writers have done a great job covering the team. As such, we&#8217;ve had them each choose their favourite piece that they&#8217;d written in the last year so that we could highlight it here again. Below are those pieces in chronological order along with a brief explanation and justification from the writer themselves.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/26/mark-shapiro-alex-anthopoulos-and-the-failures-of-change/" target="_blank">Mark Shapiro, Alex Anthopoulos, and the Failures of Change</a> — Matt Gwin</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Regime change is incredibly tough and Shapiro and Co. needed to understand that; they didn&#8217;t. And for me, the front office story lines of the past two seasons have been some of the team&#8217;s most interesting. The change from the silent, but brash Alex Anthopoulos to the unrestrained, but demure Shapiro and Atkins was chief among them. To this day, Rogers lives with the PR nightmare that they created by preemptively hiring Alex&#8217;s boss in the team&#8217;s most exciting season since 1993.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/04/the-nine-best-blue-jays-free-agent-signings/" target="_blank">The 9 Best Blue Jays Free Agent Signings</a> — Andrew Arnold</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;As we approach free agency, it&#8217;s fun to look back at the best moves the club has made over the years. As you&#8217;ll find, there&#8217;s been a mixed bunch&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/19/what-if-four-blue-jays-mega-moves-that-almost-happened/" target="_blank">Four Blue Jays Mega Moves That Almost Happened</a> — Nick Dika</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s a look back at some of the most impactful trades that almost changed the course of the franchise. When we heard that the Jays were close to acquiring Andrew McCutchen, I thought it would be fun to go back and look at some of the other impact players that there were oh-so-close to playing in Toronto.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/03/john-gibbons-is-a-modern-day-bobby-cox/" target="_blank">John Gibbons is a Modern Day Bobby Cox</a> — Elie Waitzer</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;The article puts Gibbons&#8217; ejection rate into historical context. I had a lot of fun researching, and who doesn&#8217;t love Gibby?&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/07/the-art-of-pitch-calling-a-masters-in-communication/" target="_blank">Russell Martin on the Art of Pitch Calling: A Masters in Communication</a> — Joshua Howsam</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Martin was fantastic to talk to about pitch calling, a subject that has always fascinated me. The fact that he provided some very cool answers was only a bonus.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/10/the-definitive-fictional-pitcher-stuff-report-part-1/" target="_blank">The Nastiest Fictional Pitchers of All Time</a> — Ewan Ross</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Using Mike Sonne&#8217;s famed STUFF metric to its fullest, the BP Toronto staff used science (!!!) to find the nastiest fictional pitcher of all time. Baseball analysis is awesome when its detailed and teaches you things about the game. However, its also awesome when the analysis is just dumb fun. This piece was dumb fun, but also incredibly exciting to both write and read. Don&#8217;t watch Trouble With The Curve.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/13/roberto-osuna-cutter-holding-slider-hostage/" target="_blank">Roberto Osuna and the Cutter Holding His Slider Hostage</a> — Kyle Matte</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;A pitcher introducing something new to his arsenal can sometimes subtract more than he&#8217;s adding. As such, I found the article to be thought provoking. It seemed like a really bad take early in 2017 when Osuna was crushing it with his cutter, but a much better take when he became overly reliant on it and lost the feel for his other pitches late in the season.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/">How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline</a> — Gideon Turk</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;This article goes behind the scenes of the process of Kevin Pillar&#8217;s attempt to stop swinging at bad pitches. It was interesting to keep track of his plate discipline statistics for the Spring Training month and then discuss the numbers with him to find out what he was doing differently at the time. Kevin may even want to re-read this one&#8230;his late season self could probably learn a thing or two.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/20/why-smart-teams-stadiums-are-never-empty/">Why Smart Teams&#8217; Stadiums Are Never Empty</a> — Bennett Brauer</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;I love off-season sales, and I always get asked what goes on in the off-season in the minor leagues. This pieces details precisely what teams are doing and why what they&#8217;re doing is so important for a successful season from a business perspective.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/28/why-are-blue-jays-fans-masochists/" target="_blank">Why are Blue Jays Fans Masochists?</a> — Rachael McDaniel</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;This article tries to figure out why we still care about this bad, bad team and it&#8217;s unfortunately still fairly relevant today. This was pretty ambitious at the time, given that it was the second thing I&#8217;d ever wrote about baseball,  and it was a fun departure from my usual writing style. You too can understand why you love the Blue Jays.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/03/marcus-stroman-is-unapologetically-good-and-thats-not-a-bad-thing/" target="_blank">Marcus Stroman is Unapologetically Good and That&#8217;s Not a Bad Thing</a> — Richard Lee-Sam</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Stroman is young and fun, baseball fans are boring and old. I liked the article because Marcus Stroman&#8217;s pitching isn&#8217;t the only thing that makes him great; he&#8217;s a personality. He&#8217;s good for a game that needs younger fans.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/22/the-beauty-of-baseball-and-learning-to-be-better/" target="_blank">The Beauty of Baseball and Learning to be Better</a> — Jenn Smith</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;This article provides a look at discrimination present both in and outside the game, and seeks to explain how we can learn from it. One needs to look no further than the NFL&#8217;s anthem controversy to understand that this piece is still obscenely relevant. Political and social issues creep into the sports world and we can&#8217;t ignore it.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/29/dear-joe-natale-its-time-to-sell-the-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Dear Joe Natale, It&#8217;s Time to Sell the Blue Jays</a> — Jon Shell</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Selling the team is better for Rogers, the Blue Jays, and pretty much everyone else. I enjoyed writing the piece, and I think the argument is correct. Based on the analysis within, I firmly believe that a new, independent, non-corporate owner would run payroll up to $180-190M and make the most of 2018. Perhaps surprisingly, I even conclude that the aforementioned scenario would be a plus for Rogers.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/15/mid-season-workloads-fatigue-units-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Mid Season Workloads &#8211; Fatigue Units for the Toronto Blue Jays</a> — Mike Sonne</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Workload is about more than pitch counts and innings. The Blue Jays early season struggles caused a lot of their more reliable pitchers to work much harder than normal. This piece aimed to show just how hard they were being pushed, and it was the first sign for me that Ryan Tepera was really going to be a key piece for the team moving forward.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/being-realistic-about-the-jays-at-the-deadline/" target="_blank">Being Realistic About The Jays At the Deadline</a> — Dave Church</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;At a time in which opinions on what they Blue Jays should do at the deadline ranged from selling off the entire 25-man roster to buying up another aging superstar, I tried to take a measured look at Toronto&#8217;s trade deadline situation.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/aaron-sanchezs-latest-blister-woes-are-a-fitting-unofficial-end-to-the-season/" target="_blank">Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s Latest Blister Woes are a Fitting Unofficial End to the Season</a> — Mike Passador</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;Regardless of the standings, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s poor final start was the nail in the coffin. I felt that the whole game was emblematic the Jays&#8217; season, from the injuries to the bad breaks to the misplays, and it was fun (in a sad way) to sort through all the letdowns and piece everything together once Sanchez&#8217;s quotes lined up nicely with larger events.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/27/jays-walk-away-can-you-make-a-walkoff-walk-worse/" target="_blank">Jays Walk Away: Can You Make a Walkoff Walk Worse</a> — Greg Wisniewski</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;I attempt to coin the phrase &#8216;#shrimpcocktail&#8217; for the worst way for a pitcher to end a ballgame. The piece required real research, but managed to make light of a Blue Jays team exploring the depths of it&#8217;s futility.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJDYoFhQjVM&amp;feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">The Danny Jansen Interview</a> — Sean Addis</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;The opportunity to get to do a story using both a video interview and game action was a nice, new storytelling element. Being able to do it while also getting to know a future Blue Jay was the bonus. Jansen ended up being a great interview and has a storyline built in to his 2017 season.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/11/analyzing-the-blue-jays-difficult-catcher-conundrum/" target="_blank">How the Blue Jays Should Handle Their 2018 Catcher Conundrum</a> — Cole Nefsky</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;This article outlines the set of problems and potential solutions with regards to the Blue Jays future catcher conundrum.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Analyzing the Josh Donaldson Extension in Two Parts — Tammy Rainey<br />
<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/02/the-blue-jays-need-to-be-careful-when-extending-josh-donaldson/" target="_blank">WHY THE BLUE JAYS NEED TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT EXTENDING JOSH DONALDSON<br />
WHY A DONALDSON EXTENSION MAY NOT BE AS EXPENSIVE AS YOU’D THINK</a></h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;I made the case that a Donaldson extension is both affordable and wise, and I stick by it. The piece attempts to challenge the &#8216;Toronto can&#8217;t sign Josh&#8217; that is inherent to any extension discussion surrounding the former MVP.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/20/re-living-the-most-exciting-blue-jays-wins-of-2017/" target="_blank">The Most Exciting* Blue Jays Wins of 2017</a> — Andrew Munn</h3>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&#8220;The original idea for this piece eventually led me into into writing about baseball, and and the end result reminded me of some really fun moments in an otherwise forgettable season.&#8221;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Llewellyn — USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Yankees</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees-5/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Sep 2017 15:47:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13608</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Mike Passador, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer Something to Play for? While the lack of furious playoff races means that few teams have consequential games on tap this weekend, there’s still a little bit of intrigue on both sides of this matchup. The Yankees enter this series three games back of the division-leading [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Mike Passador, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer</span></i></p>
<p><b>Something to Play for?</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While the lack of furious playoff races means that few teams have consequential games on tap this weekend, there’s still a little bit of intrigue on both sides of this matchup. The Yankees enter this series three games back of the division-leading Red Sox, and while the odds of them catching up are slim, Boston does have to face the juggernaut Astros to close things out. Stranger things have happened, so perhaps New York will have a little extra urgency over these next three.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Of course, one Yankee loss or Red Sox win would lock the top of the AL East into place. The same can’t be said for the bottom of the division, with the Blue Jays and Orioles tied at 75-84 and just two games back of the Rays. For a team that has spent every day of 2017 in the AL East basement, there would certainly be some joy in leapfrogging someone before the buzzer sounds.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the East is settled on Friday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees pump the brakes on Saturday and Sunday, preserving their most important position players and lethal bullpen arms for the Wild Card game. It would open the door for Toronto to play against a skeleton squad. And even if Toronto also chooses to sit <em>their</em> stars it’d at least improve their chances of taking a game or two.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sensible draft pick considerations aside, it’d be incredibly satisfying to finish ahead of Baltimore or Tampa Bay (but especially Baltimore). Little victories, people.</span></p>
<p><b>It&#8217;s Finally Over</b></p>
<p>We have reached the conclusion. At long last, the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be done playing baseball in 2017 after this series in New York, bringing a merciful end to what has been a thoroughly disappointing season. Need to be reminded of some of the bad things to happen to the Blue Jays this year? How about we discuss a few, and hope that in 2018, we&#8217;ll have a lot more positives than negatives to talk about.</p>
<p>Things got started in almost the worst way possible, with the club beginning their season at 1-9. Nobody was having any sustainable offensive success, and the only bright spot was Kevin Pillar learning how to take a pitch. Unfortunately, that was short-lived, and Pillar quickly fell back to earth. April also saw injuries to Josh Donaldson and Aaron Sanchez and featured the start of underwhelming campaigns from Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Sanchez never recover fully and he ended up only pitching in 36 innings this season. His lingering blister problems not only impacted his 2017 season, but they have also cast doubt on his future in baseball. One has to wonder if he will ever be able to stay healthy and pitch successfully in the major leagues, or if his blister issues will keep on recurring as they did this season and prevent him from having success at all.</p>
<p>Finally, one would be remiss to discuss the terribleness of 2017 without mentioning Jason Grilli. The fireballer who turned his 2016 season around and helped the Blue Jays make the postseason came into this year as a key cog in the Blue Jays bullpen. He was anything but; before he was released in June, he had a 6.97 ERA. He allowed more home runs this year with the Blue Jays than he did in 2016, with half of the innings pitched, and the Blue Jays lost in 17 of the 26 games in which he appeared. If this represents his final season in the majors&#8230;Well&#8230;Yeah&#8230;It wasn&#8217;t a pretty one.</p>
<p><b>Bird Is The Word</b></p>
<p>Before Aaron Judge and before Gary Sanchez, there was Greg Bird. The hype was mostly due to his headline-friendly last name, but a lot of it was deserved after he posted a .312 TAv in a 46 game tryout down the stretch in 2015. Then he sat out the 2016 season with a torn labrum, stumbled out of the gates this season (.107/.265/.214 in April), then hit the DL with a serious injury again.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">So you’re forgiven if you thought you could forget about Greg Bird. But since he’s coming to town, you should probably know that he has hit five homers over his past nine games and has generally been crushing the ball since his return in late August. His season stats are still putrid, but he’s been one of the Yankees’ hottest bats during their dominant September run.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That fact is extra scary if you’re the Twins because the Yankees were doing just fine before Bird turned it on. If Bird can keep up his recent success, New York’s lineup could be one of the deepest in the playoffs.</span></p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Red Sox</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/25/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox-5/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Sep 2017 16:31:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Richard Lee-Sam, Joshua Howsam, and Cole Nefsky Has the Fire Gone out of Smoak? With the Blue Jays already eliminated and the Red Sox five games up on the Yankees with seven games to go, it looks like there isn’t much left to care about in this series aside from seeing if Justin [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Richard Lee-Sam, Joshua Howsam, and Cole Nefsky</em></p>
<h3>Has the Fire Gone out of Smoak?</h3>
<p>With the Blue Jays already eliminated and the Red Sox five games up on the Yankees with seven games to go, it looks like there isn’t much left to care about in this series aside from seeing if Justin Smoak can snap out of his cold spell. After belting 38 homers in the first five months of the season, Smoak has gone completely cold in the month of September, slashing just .202/.304/.365 after coming in at .287/.363/.570.</p>
<p>It would be easy to say that Smoak is looking like his former self, but he’s actually showing more discipline – walking more and striking out less – than he did earlier this year. He’s just not hitting the ball out as much, seeing his HR/FB rate go from 23.5% from April to August to just 6.5% in September.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m also not sure why, but people on Twitter have been fixated on the number 40 with Justin Smoak and what looked like a sure thing at the beginning of September now looks to be danger.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If Justin Smoak hits 40 this year, I will take 40 shots</p>
<p>&mdash; Richard Lee-Sam (@RLeesam) <a href="https://twitter.com/RLeesam/status/880931978018779136">June 30, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The good news here is that Smoak has been a much better hitter when hitting from the right side of the plate this year &#8211; and the Red Sox will start two lefties this series. Couple that with the fact that he has an OPS of .896 in 109 plate appearances at Fenway and maybe, just maybe that Green Monster in left field will help Smoak get there.<br />
Smoak has just six games remaining to do something noteworthy in what has been an otherwise abysmal season for the Blue Jays. He could reach that magic number of 40 by just pulling fly balls over the course of the next few days. Ordinarily, something like this wouldn’t be that big of a deal, but the tears for Jose have dried and now we need one last thing to cheer for. Toronto only has nine players with 40+ homer seasons as a Blue Jay. Smoak, with a good series, can become the 10<sup>th</sup> and make the good people of Twitter happy…for some reason.</p>
<h3>Sale Cy Watch</h3>
<p>The fight for the American League Cy Young Award has been a fascinating thing to watch during the second half this year. Things seemed pretty one-sided at the All-Star Break with both Chris Sale and Corey Kluber sporting mid-season ERAs of 2.75-2.80, but with Sale having four extra starts, the slightly lower ERA, and 53 strikeouts. But since that time, Corey Kluber has turned into a completely unhittable pitcher, going 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 139 punchouts against just 12 walks in 105.1 innings.</p>
<p>In the mean time, Chris Sale has been almost the exact same pitcher he has been all season, but has actually UPPED his already elite strikeout rate from 35.9 percent in the first half to 37.0 percent in the second. He is on pace for the third highest ever strikeout rate by both K/9 and K% (behind Randy Johnson in 2001 and Pedro Martinez in 1999). He also has reached 300 strikeouts, becoming the second pitcher since 2002 (Kershaw had 301 in 2015) to reach that milestone.</p>
<p>Corey Kluber leads in WARP (8.09-7.88) and bWAR (7.8-6.2), but Sale leads in fWAR (8.2-7.1). Kluber has closed the innings gap to just 11 1/3 IP and leads big in ERA (2.27-2.75), but Sale leads by just as wide a margin in strikeouts (300-262).</p>
<p>In the end, this will come down to how people value strikeouts vs. run prevention, but that doesn&#8217;t mean there isn&#8217;t still time for people to make their own cases. Kluber pitched well on Sunday in what is likely his last full outing of the year (he&#8217;ll probably only throw a few innings this week), but Chris Sale will be making <em>his</em> final full start against the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Why does that matter? Because if you&#8217;ve been watching at all this year, Chris Sale absolutely OWNS Toronto. If he wanted to bolster his Cy Young case, he couldn&#8217;t have picked a better opponent.</p>
<p>In three starts against Toronto this year, Chris Sale has thrown 22 innings, struck out 35, allowed just 13 baserunners (11 hits, 2 walks), and oh yeah&#8230;zero runs. 22 innings, 0 runs. For those keeping score at home, that&#8217;s an ERA of 0.00. If he can repeat his good fortunes with another similar outing, he could make a very strong final impression on Cy Young Voters. Look for some flailing on Tuesday.</p>
<h3>Boston&#8217;s Young Stars Give Hope for Toronto&#8217;s Future</h3>
<p>With the season winding down right now, the stakes of this intra-divisional rivalry have never been lower. The Red Sox have not yet clinched the division, but it won&#8217;t take much to get them there, meaning that they&#8217;ll be quick to move to their call-ups both in the pen and on the field. What you can do is take this time to appreciate the quality of the Red Sox player development in recent seasons.</p>
<p>Even with the Dave Dombrowski fire sale, the Sox have a tremendous amount of young talent on their roster. With Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and anyone else I&#8217;m forgetting, they have the core that can hold this team in contention for years on end. What you, as a Jays fan, can be excited about is that the man credited with building much of that is in the Jays front office right now. Ben Cherington, the Vice President of Baseball Operations, along with Gil Kim, Eric Wedge, and everyone else in the Player Development department have done a great job building up the Jays system and aren&#8217;t even done yet. The quality of the players they&#8217;ve developed from the lower rounds is in part a testament to that.</p>
<p>That and their drafting. Another person pulled from the Sox organization was just in charge of his first draft. Steve Sanders came from the amateur scouting department with the Red Sox. And I would be remiss if I didn&#8217;t mention the first of the Red Sox imports currently in the Jays front office, Mike Murov. The point I&#8217;m trying to make here is that even if things don&#8217;t look good now, most of this front office comes from two organizations previously, the Indians and the Red Sox, and they&#8217;re both doing very well right now. It&#8217;s a sign, hopefully, of what&#8217;s to come for your Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Yankees</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/22/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees-4/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Sep 2017 17:55:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Judge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Didi Gregorious]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starlin Castro]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dave Church, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer Stuck In The Middle (Infield) With You You&#8217;d be forgiven for forgetting that Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis play for the Blue Jays. Apparently they appeared together in a game at one point, but we can&#8217;t really be sure. It&#8217;s probable that Ryan Goins has always been [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dave Church, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer</em></p>
<h3>Stuck In The Middle (Infield) With You</h3>
<p>You&#8217;d be forgiven for forgetting that Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis play for the Blue Jays. Apparently they appeared together in a game at one point, but we can&#8217;t really be sure. It&#8217;s probable that Ryan Goins has always been the shortstop for the Blue Jays, since it seems like they always end the season with him playing a bunch of games there.</p>
<p>Jokes aside, the middle infield has been a source of concern for the Blue Jays. Injuries to the regulars have forced more at-bats from Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney than any fan should have to witness. It was a similar concern for the Yankees a few season ago, when they lost Robinson Cano and the statue of Derek Jeter over the course of two off-seasons, players who were linchpins of their early 2010s success.</p>
<p>The Yankees did well in getting their replacements, however: Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius have become solid regulars, with Castro making the All-Star Game this season. It&#8217;s not enough that both players have flourished in the pinstripes, the Yankees managed highway robbery in getting both: giving up only reliever Shane Greene to get Gregorius, and Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan to get Castro (Fun fact: Warren returned to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman deal, and Chapman re-signed with the Yankees in the 2016-17 off-season. Why do they all come back?).</p>
<p>It was irritating enough when the Yankees kept buying the best free agents, suffocating the top of the AL East with the Red Sox. Now, their buy-low acquisitions are turning into regular starters and all-stars, or clubbing 25 home runs as a shortstop. Tulo and Travis could have been a close matchup with Castro and Gregorius. With the Jays running out Barney, Goins and former Yankees farmhand Rob Refsnyder, it&#8217;s a cavernous difference in talent, one they will be hard pressed to make up elsewhere.</p>
<p>The best outcome for this series sees Refsnyder making good against his former organization, finally showing some of the post-prospect potential that led the Jays to acquire him. The worst has Gregorius and Castro slashing doubles and dingers all over the diamond, becoming similar middle infield linchpins to those other guys the Yankees used to have, being part of a talented team that continues to keep the Jays out of the playoff hunt. If the Yankees are good, maybe it&#8217;s okay to hate them again.</p>
<h3>A Word From Buck and Pat</h3>
<p>The New York Yankees have been anything but a lock for the playoffs in recent years. 2017 has been a big turnaround year for them though, as they have moved from dependence on aging free agents to reliance on the production of a few young superstars. Principal among these have been Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge.</p>
<p>Both blessed with prodigious power, you would be hard pressed to not notice the effect of Aaron Judge&#8217;s .277/.412/.591 line and Gary Sanchez&#8217; .282/.347/.538 right behind him. And again like the Yankees struck Aaron Judge with the &#8216;core four&#8217; in the late Gary Sanchez, the emergence of Luis Severino as the Yankees most dominant Aaron Judge at only 23 years old (10.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) along with both Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge in the lineup and dominating so quickly, the Yankees may Aaron Judge a proto-dynasty in the Gary Sanchez, as it is eminently Aaron Judge that they will Gary Sanchez whatever pieces they need in order to Aaron Judge home grown talent and Gary Sanchez.</p>
<p>It seems like Aaron Judge Girardi and Gary Sanchez Cashman have been given an incredible amount of Aaron Judge to run one of Gary Sanchez most valuable franchises in Aaron Judge way they Gary Sanchez. As a result, there is a sense of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, even as the Yankees fortunes have Aaron Judge ebb tide over the Gary Sanchez five years. Unlike old George, the Steinbrenner&#8217;s now Aaron Judge  understand the Gary Sanchez that you can&#8217;t expect to win the Aaron Judge Series every Gary Sanchez in a league with Aaron Judge teams, all Gary Sanchez with front offices Aaron Judge into every aspect of the Gary Sanchez  in order to maintain their Aaron Judge. Surely though, the emergence of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will embolden them to keep Dellin Betances in the Aaron Judge and supplement the roster in Gary Sanchez way they can to once again become an Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez juggernaut. Really, when you watch this series you should see it as a sign of Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez.</p>
<p>Derek Jeter.</p>
<p>Tune into Sportsnet for more of this excellent Blue Jays coverage.</p>
<h3>The Numbers By Which We&#8217;ll Remember Jose Bautista</h3>
<p>The year is 2059. A child pulls up baseball-reference.com and searches the name &#8220;Jose Bautista.&#8221; She has heard of the bat-flip, the sultry glare, the prodigious power. But what do the numbers say?</p>
<p>Over the past ten years, Bautista has set several single-season franchise records. 10 WARP and 132 walks in 2011. 54 homers in 2010. 160 and counting strikeouts this year. Those aren&#8217;t cheap records. Even with the juiced-up ball, Giancarlo Stanton is the only hitter in baseball who&#8217;s managed to break the 50 HR mark this year.</p>
<p>But ten years (assuming this is the end) simply hasn&#8217;t been enough time for Bautista to establish himself across the board in the all-time franchise record book. The playing time gap between him and Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado means that Bautista is a runner-up in most counting stats like doubles, homers, walks and RBI.</p>
<p>Going by Fangraphs WAR he&#8217;s just barely in first place, but by BP&#8217;s WARP he trails Delgado by a fair amount. If we think he can average 3.1 walks over the remaining nine games then he&#8217;s got a shot at passing Delgado for the all-time franchise BB record (827). Maybe the all-time franchise GIDP record is a bit more realistic &#8211; he only needs 20 more to pass Wells.</p>
<p>The sad fact Bautista likely won&#8217;t be playing out his golden years on the Skydome pastures means that we&#8217;ll have to remember him not by the counting stat records you&#8217;d find in Baseball Almanac, but by his absurd rate stats. At a minimum of 4,000 PA, Bautista is the all-time franchise leader in walk rate (15.3%) and wRC+ (139).</p>
<p>Still, perhaps the greatest Bautista all-time franchise record <em>is </em>a counting stat.</p>
<p><strong>22,050</strong> (and counting) &#8211; the total number of pitches Bautista has seen as a Blue Jay.</p>
<p>Despite the 782 PA gap between Bautista and Delgado, Jose has seen more than<em> double</em> the amount of pitches. That&#8217;s partly a testament to Delgado&#8217;s swing-away mentality, but more so it captures the unwavering patience and plate discipline that has defined Bautista&#8217;s career as a Blue Jay.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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