Who Might the Jays Protect in the Rule 5 Draft?

Friday brings us another one of the milestone dates that litter the MLB off-season as clubs set out to shuffle their organization in preparation for the season ahead. To-wit, it is the day that teams must finalize their 40 man roster in anticipation of the Rule 5 Draft that takes place at the end of the Winter Meetings. When considering who needs to be added to the roster, the framework is the rule which describes eligibiliy for the draft. Here is that description:

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization’s 40-man roster and:

– were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or

– were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

Keeping that in mind, let’s first examine who’s on the current roster and who among them might possibly be removed. Here’s the current 40 man roster per the Jays official site:
Pitchers – Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Marcus Stoman, Francisco Liriano
Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, Joe Biagini, Aaron Loup, Danny Barnes, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, Matt Dermody, Chad Girado, Chris Smith, Mike Bolsinger

Catchers – Russell Martin, Josh Thole, A.J. Jimenez

Infielders – Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis, Justin Smoak, Darwin Barney, Ryan Goins, Andy Burns, Chris Colabello

Outfielders – Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Melvin Upton, Jr., Dalton Pompey, Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., Harold Ramirez, Darryl Ceciliani

(I’ll include Kendrey Morales too, though the site has not been updated to include him, as the signing is not yet official)

Including Morales, that’s 36 names – you’ll note that Gurriel’s contract involved a 40-man spot as well. I’ll have more to say about him in a future post, but it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he could be on the major league squad as early as the last third of the upcoming season.

It’s a distinct possibility some of those guys will be gone from this list by Friday, particularly in that you have to have an open spot in order to take a player in the Rule 5 Draft yourself. An easy first assumption is that Josh Thole is already a ghost. The Blue Jays may yet be trying to squeeze “cash considerations” or some such out of Atlanta, but the best guess is that the Braves know that if they wait, Toronto will non-tender him and they can offer him a minor league contract and keep a roster spot open.

I’m inclined to think Mike Bolsinger comes off the roster, and possibly Chris Smith if needed. Chris Colabello may well have played himself off the roster after coming back from the suspension, and Ceciliani is a fairly fungible guy. Any of these, save Thole, would be welcome back on a minor league contract if they want. That wouldn’t protect them from the Rule 5, but it would keep them in the organization if they don’t get drafted. So let’s figure we’re looking at 5-9 available spots.

Now, per the above qualifications, these are the eligible minor leaguers who need protection from the draft:

2013 draft: Dan Lietz, Garret Custons, Tim Mayza, Jonathan Davis, Mike Reeves, David Harris
2012 draft: DJ Davis, Matt Smoral, Mitch Nay, Anthony Alford, Ian Parmley, Alex Azor, Ryan Borucki, Shane Dawson, Jorge Flores, Josh Almonte, Jason Leblebijian, Derrick Chung, Jorge Saez
Previously eligible (2011 and previous drafts): Jake Anderson, Dwight Smith, Jr., Jeremy Gabryzywiski, John Stilson, Tom Robson, Christian Lopes, Matt Dean, Jon Berti, Justin Atkinson, Derrick Loveless, Taylor Cole, Shane Opitz, Seth Conner.
Undrafted Free Agents: Will Browning, Alonzo Gonzalez, Chris Schaeffer, Emilio Gurrero, Richard Urena, Roemon Fields, Carlos Ramirez, Francisco Rios, Adonys Cardona, Jose Fernandez, Luis Santos, Michael De La Cruz, Michael Reeves, Angel Perdomo, Deferson Barreto
Acquired via trade: Tim Lopes

Kinda overwhelming, huh? Okay, so let’s toss out all the guys who don’t matter because no one will ever consider carrying them in the majors for all of 2017, and they have no “story” that might make you wonder why I didn’t mention him. That leaves the following for consideration:

2013 draft: Jonathan Davis
2012 draft: DJ Davis, Matt Smoral, Mitch Nay, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, Shane Dawson, Jason Leblebijian
Previously eligible (2011 and previous drafts): Dwight Smith, Jr., John Stilson, Tom Robson, Matt Dean, Jon Berti, Taylor Cole
Undrafted Free Agents: Will Browning, Richard Urena, Francisco Rios, Adonys Cardona, Angel Perdomo

That’s a more manageable list. If I didn’t carry over a player, don’t worry about him even if in some insane circumstance he gets drafted (in some cases you might lose one of those guys, say Carlos Ramirez, in the minor league portion of the draft). What remains is guys who are a lock, guys who might fit a particular niche that some team will try to carry them on the end of the bench, and guys you’ve heard of that won’t get drafted – and then some other guys about whom opinions may vary.

The Locks

Alford and Urena. These are two of the Blue Jays very best prospects, and there is absolutely no chance the club will risk a team taking them in the rule 5 draft, even if they’re not yet ready for MLB work. If they were left off, it would only be because somebody is trying to get fired.

The Ones you Know, but Won’t be Taken

-D.J. Davis: because he hasn’t hit much of anything

– Matt Smoral: because he can’t stay healthy or throw strikes

– Mitch Nay: because he was out injured all year and wasn’t hitting much before that

– Shane Dawson: control issues

– Tom Robson: coming off of Tommy John and not doing well

– Matt Dean: hurt a lot, hasn’t hit enough

– Adonys Cardona: a one time high-dollar bonus baby who’s been hurt a LOT and had big control issues this year

The Niche guys Who Might be of Interest to Other Teams

– Will Browning: an older RP who stayed with the big leaguers deep into the spring last year. He might have the talent to hang around the fringe of a bullpen based on his minor league stats

– Jon Berti: bat is uncertain but is a versatile defender with valuable speed

-Dwight Smith, Jr. : was passed up last year after a weak hitting year, but might have stirred some interest with a better year in 2016. Frankly, DSJ would be pretty surprising because his defensive value is limited to LF, but I’m trying to be thorough here.

The Bubble Candidates

– Borucki, Rios and Perdomo are legitimate prospects with enough talent and/or results to have a shot at clinging to the last bullpen spot for a drafting team. They are all candidates to be protected.

-John Stilson was a guy with a big – but fragile – arm that was a risk/reward guy when drafted. I haven’t seen anyone else mention him as a candidate to be selected but as a guy who might just as easily wind up on the DL (and thus stay in your system) as pan out, I wonder if someone might not give it a try?

-Taylor Cole is the guy notoriously delayed by a two year commitment as a Mormon missionary before he got around to pro ball. If there’s a Biagini story in our system, he might be it.

-Jonathan Davis is a small, fast, versatile, outfielder who blew up this year after having been ordinary before. He’s said to have a really great makeup but how much stock will teams put in one breakout season?

-Finally there’s Jason Leblebijian, who is of a similar mold to current 40-man placeholder, Andy Burns.

Final Protection Predictions

The Blue Jays will add Anthony Alford, Richard Urena, Ryan Borucki and Angel Perdomo and take their chances with the rest. I would not be stunned if a team took a flier on Stilson, Leblebijian or Rios. A few of these guys might slip away in the minor league portion of the draft as well.

Post Script: If there’s a guy who are wondering about I didn’t mention, he’s almost certainly not eligible yet, or was a minor league free agent. Those, by the way, via Baseball America, are the following:

Lead Photo: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports