Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, June 30th – Sunday, July 3rd
The Blue Jays begin their Canada Day encompassing four-game set against the hottest team in baseball: the Cleveland Indians.
You read that correct. The Indians have been on a torrid pace of late, winning their last 12 games. The streak–which dates back to June 17th–has taken the Indians from a dead heat for first in the AL Central to six games up on the reigning World Series champions, the Kansas City Royals. They’ve out scored the four opponents they’ve faced 76-25 over the streak. That’s a run differential that computes to–and we’re being precise here–a Pythagorean win expectation of… Very Good.
The Indians head into Thursday’s opener with an identical record to the Baltimore Orioles and a .610 winning percentage. So as not to elaborate further: the Blue Jays have their work cut out for them.
Heading out of Colorado, the Blue Jays must look to avoid the Coors Field hangover that is caused by the thin air, and not the light, easy-drinking beverage. You may wish to call your local Toronto meteorologist and request a lack of humidity. Because, yes, that is how the weather works. I’ve consulted with one of North America’s foremost meteorologists who has confirmed this definitely not true story.
Pitching Matchups:
Thursday, June 30 – 7:07 PM
Carlos Carrasco vs. R.A. Dickey
Not to sound like a broken record, but R.A. Dickey continues to do R.A. Dickey things on the mound this season and continues to be a reliable option at the back of the Blue Jay rotation. While he struggled with the long ball (four homers allowed) in his last start against Chicago, he limited to the damage to six hits and five runs (four earned) over 5.1 innings of work. For the season, R.A. is right around where we expected him to be pitching to a 4.23 ERA over 95.2 innings. While it’s hard to tell how exactly Dickey will fare from start to start, his assignment in the series opener, combined with the knuckleball hangover effect (if you believe in it) may bode well for Marcus Stroman, who takes the hill on Canada Day the following afternoon.
After losing six weeks due to injury, Carlos Carrasco turned in the best performance of his season last weekend against Detroit. Last Saturday’s complete game shutout of the Tigers was Carrasco’s fifth start since returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injured hamstring and it lowered his season ERA to 2.73. While he has displayed elite peripheral numbers over the past three seasons, this season, this his peripherals have been slightly worse than you would expect for a pitcher of his caliber – his strikeout rate is down to 7.88 per nine innings (from last season’s 10.58) and his 3.65 DRA is fueled by a 91.3% Left on Base Rate that suggests he may have been somewhat lucky in his first nine starts. These results more than likely have to do with his abbreviated and interrupted schedule than it does anything else; expect Carrasco to be good when he takes the mound at the Rogers Centre Thursday.
Friday, July 1st – 1:07 PM ET
Josh Tomlin vs. Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman continues his quest to break out of a mini-slump on Friday afternoon after another lackluster start against Chicago last Sunday. Stro surrendered four runs on seven hits and four walks in his last outing and says that while the results weren’t there, he did feel better. And while he was by no means dominant, he was admittedly dinked and dunked at least a few times in the start. While he has been hit hard of late, look for Stroman to adjust his pitch mix and location (I’m sure you’ve heard everyone screaming to keep those sinkers down in the zone). Stro comes into the start with a 5.33 ERA on the season.
When it comes to raw stuff, Josh Tomlin is the least intimidating starter that Blue Jays hitters will see in the weekend. Tomlin relies heavily on a fastball/cutter combination with a curveball (12 percent of the time) and changeup (8 percent of the time) mixed in. Tomlin’s fastball also only has an average velocity of 87.7 miles per hour, so location is paramount give his lack of swing and miss stuff. Tomlin has been able to minimize the damage against him largely due to a 0.81 BB/9 this season, which has led to a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. Given some of the tough assignments the Jays lineup will tackle, putting the screws to Tomlin would go a long way in ensuring success against the first place Indians.
Saturday, July 2nd – 1:07 PM ET
Trevor Bauer vs. Marco Estrada
Marco Estrada continued his dominant 2016 about as well as one could have expected when forced to start at Coors Field. All of the damage came off the bat of Carlos Gonzalez, and despite allowing three runs in six innings of work, Estrada kept the powerful Rockies offence at bay and the Blue Jays in the game. In addition to generating pop ups and weak contact, Estrada continues to generate more swings and misses than previous seasons, posting a K/9 of 8.34 this season. In Estrada’s only start against Cleveland last season, he held the Indians to two runs on five hits in seven innings of work. And speaking of five hits, Estrada looks to continue his MLB record streak of starts in which he throws six innings and allows five or fewer hits to 13 straight this weekend.
Marco Estrada’s mound opponent, Trevor Bauer, currently sits in sixth place, right behind Estrada, on the American League ERA leaderboard, with a season mark of 3.19. After struggling in both Arizona and Cleveland (where he has pitched for three seasons), the former third overall pick appears to be finally putting things together. Bauer’s breakout is largely based on limiting his free passes and an increasing his ground ball rate. Bauer has decreased his BB/9 from 4.04 to 2.99 and his increased his GB% from 39.2% to 50%, taking advantage of Cleveland’s strong infield defense in the process.
Saturday, July 2nd – 1:07 PM ET
Corey Kluber vs. J.A. Happ
J.A. Happ takes the ball in series finale for Toronto on Sunday afternoon. Like most pitchers, Happ struggled last time out against the Rockies at Coors Field. High altitude aside, Happ has pitched well this season, taking a 3.70 ERA into the weekend. While early on this season, Happ was generating more ground balls and fewer strikeouts than previous seasons, he seems to be slowly regressing to his career norms, as his groundball rate now sits at 43% on the season (last season’s was 41.6%). Oddly enough, Happ appears to be showing a bit of a reverse platoon split this season, with a slash line of .273/.356/.391 against left-handed hitters (with righties hitting only .240/.299/.421). Terry Francona is limited in the left-handed options he has available to him, so if the trend continues, this may work to the Blue Jays advantage.
The 2014 Cy Young winner continues to pitch well for Cleveland this season, taking an 8-7 record and 3.50 ERA into his weekend assignment. While Kluber truly is one of the better starting pitchers in the American League, he is prone to the occasional blowup start – he has made four starts already this season where he allowed five or more runs, most recently against Kansas City on June 15. And speaking of said starts, Kluber faced the Blue Jays once last season, surrendering five runs on eight hits in five innings pitched.
Additions and Subtractions
He’s baaack. Squints! Brett Cecil has been activated from the 15-day DL after missing over a month with a tear in his lat. The lefty struggled in the early parts of the season, but if he can put up numbers anything close to what he has provided over the last few years, John Gibbons is going to be thrilled. Left-handers have been a big problem for the Jays this year, so Cecil will be a big help. To make room on the roster, Ryan Tepera has been sent back to Buffalo. We could be seeing the return of another lefty soon, as Franklin Morales is almost finished his rehab sting in triple-A.
Despite no changes in the last week, the Indians are still dealing with an extremely weakened outfield. Thanks to a lingering injury to Michael Brantley and suspensions for Abraham Almonte and Marlon Byrd, the Indians are playing with an outfield made entirely of backups. Lonnie Chisenhall is a transplanted third baseman, Rajai Davis we all know, and Tyler Naquin is a former first round pick who made his major league debut in April. They continue to make it work though. Naquin leads the team in average, on-base, and slugging, and Chisenhall and Davis are more than holding their own.
Keep an Eye On
Ross Atkins
The Cleveland Professional Baseball Team will feel the wrath of their former front office employee! This is the first time Toronto will face the Indians since Shapiro poached their executive as the newest Blue Jays general manager. I’d definitely look for Atkins to play with a bit more swagger in his step than usual. And by that, I mean the players under Atkins will all feel their general manager’s presence and play with their own slightly less but evenly-distributed swagger. I like to call it trickle-down swagger.
Canada Day
As you may have heard, it’s Canada Day this Friday. It’s a pretty good day filled with no work, baseball, and something to do with hockey I think as well. Anywho, that Steven Stamkos guy already re-signed with one of those Florida teams, so there’s no reason for you to pay attention to that last thing on the list.
Instead, be a patriot and root, root, root for the home team Blue Jays. They’ll be wearing slick jerseys and disgusting hats. As an added bonus, the visiting American team won’t have the unfortunate position of having to awkwardly wear their Independence Day gear while in another country. That holiday is on Monday, and the Cleveland Clevelanders will be in Detroit instead.
The Uncle at your Canada Day barbecue that thinks Chief Wahoo Isn’t a racist logo
Seriously though, keep an eye on this guy. The Cleveland Indians’ current name and logo is very bad and most fans thankfully know it. The logo is in the process of getting grandfathered out it seems, which is a good sign.
Instead of calling them by their unfortunate name, we here at BP Toronto would like to present these alternatives: the Cleveland Clevelanders, the Cleveland Spiders, the Cleveland Infants, the Cleveland LeBrons, the Cleveland Rocks, the Cleveland Drew Careys, the Cleveland Paul Newmans, the Cleveland Baseball Browns, the Cleveland Rough Riders, the Cleveland Roughriders, The Cleveland We Could Use Yan Gomes Backs, the Cleveland Parks Are Called Malls And Malls Are Called Arcades, The Cleveland Aquarium From Finding Dorys, and, finally, the Cleveland We’re Sorrys.
Probable Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays |
Cleveland Indians |
| 1 Ezequiel Carrera-RF | 1 Carlos Santana-DH |
| 2 Devon Travis-2B | 2 Jason Kipnis-2B |
| 3 Josh Donaldson-3B | 3 Francisco Lindor-SS |
| 4 Edwin Encarnacion-1B | 4 Mike Napoli-1B |
| 5 Michael Saunders-LF | 5 Jose Ramirez-3B |
| 6 Justin Smoak-DH | 6 Lonnie Chisenhall-LF |
| 7 Troy Tulowitzki-SS | 7 Yan Gomes-C |
| 8 Russell Martin-C | 8 Tyler Naquin-CF |
| 9 Kevin Pillar-CF | 9 Pitcher |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
It’ll be a weekend of fireworks for sure, with hopefully a few coming as a result of the Blue Jays bats. It’ll be a tough series, but the Jays and their fans are hoping for a split at the bare minimum.
Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports