Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
May 9th – May 11th
Written by Mike Passador and Molly Tissenbaum
The Blue Jays will head to the coast to take on another NL West opponent after dropping two of three at home to the LA Dodgers. Chalking up yesterday’s game as another “One That Got Away,” Toronto boards the team charter to San Francisco with a record of 16-17 where the 17-16 Giants will be waiting for them. This series should make for another interesting set of matchups on the novelty factor alone. The last time these teams faced each other was 2013, with the Blue Jays winning three of the four games, two coming at each venue. The Jays got two wins from R.A. Dickey and one from Ramon Ortiz while Tim Lincecum out-dueled Josh Johnson for a 2-1 San Francisco victory in the other game.
Pitching Matchups:
May 9th – 10:15 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez vs. Jake Peavy
Sanchez continued his incredibly strong start to the 2016 season against Texas his last time out, yielding three runs on seven hits in seven innings while walking two and striking out five. Sanchez currently holds a 2-1 record with a 2.82 ERA and 34 strikeouts against only 12 walks. Control was the core issue facing the young right-hander, and to this point he has done a good job limiting walks. Getting ahead of batters will be key, as doing so allows Sanchez to draw from his entire arsenal of pitches. When ahead of batters, Sanchez likes to use his curveball more (RHB/LHB: 27 percent/34 percent as opposed to 3 percent/5 percent when behind in the count) to try and generate grounders or swings and misses while his sinking fastball becomes the weapon of choice when he falls behind. Early strikes will be necessary in order to keep the Giants’ hitters off balance. Sanchez has never faced any member of the Giants’ roster, so it will be interesting to see how quickly they can adjust to the speed and movement on his pitches.
Opposing Sanchez will be Jake Peavy. The long-ago Cy Young winner has struggled so far, entering the game with a 1-3 record and a nice, round ERA of 9.00. The veteran starter had a horrendous last outing, giving up six runs and five walks in only two innings of work. Working primarily with a fastball / sinker / cutter / curveball mix, Peavy has generated 25 strikeouts on the season, with his cutter and an infrequently-used slider producing the greatest percentage of whiffs. We may see more sliders than normal thanks to Toronto’s right-heavy lineup and early strikeout troubles. While the slider is shown only to righties, Peavy will use a changeup to great effect against left handed batters. Beyond the cutter, Peavy doesn’t have much in the way of a strikeout, so perhaps the Jays’ bats will get a reprieve in that regard. In six starts, Peavy has also surrendered 6 home runs, so Toronto’s big bats could very well connect for a dinger or two on Monday night as he works through early struggles. In the last five years, Peavy has faced Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion the most often among current Blue Jays, with Bautista hitting .308 in 13 at-bats and Edwin hitting .250 in 12.
May 10th – 10:15 PM ET
J.A. Happ vs. Matt Cain
Despite being an underwhelming addition at the time, Happ has proven to be a key cog in the Blue Jays’ season. Through six starts, the Illinois native is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA. After giving up only one run on five hits in seven innings against the Rangers, Happ’s stretch of surrendering three runs or less stands at 16 straight starts going back to last season. As outlined in this post by our own Josua Howsam and Chris Sherwin, Happ has continued his strong play since returning to Toronto by making a series of positive changes between stints that point to sustained success. Happ is working to generate ground ball outs early in the count, while changing his approach to work the top of the zone when he gets batters to two strikes. The mechanical adjustments Happ made with the Pirates have stuck, and he has increased his usage of curveballs and changeups while introducing a totally revamped cutter. He has been huge so far with the offense scuffling, and the Jays’ front office has to be thrilled with their offseason acquisition.
Opposing J.A. will be right hander Matt Cain. The last time these two starters faced off at AT&T Park, Matt Cain threw a perfect game. While the Jays are in relatively little danger of succumbing to the exact same fate, Cain might have an outside shot at racking up 14 strikeouts again. Jokes aside, Cain, like Peavy, has struggled so far. He is 0-4 with a 7.84 ERA in his six starts. Cain relies primarily on a four-seam fastball and a slider, mixing in a changeup against lefties. His fastball is a fly ball pitch, while his slider generates a tremendous amount of ground balls. Beyond the aforementioned changeup, Cain’s offerings don’t often result in swings and misses. Off to the worst start of his career, the righty will look to get back on track after giving up eight runs on ten hits against Colorado in his last start. Troy Tulowitzki might be happy to be back on Pacific Time, as Tulo has slashed .328/389/.672 with five home runs, 10 RBI and seven walks against Cain in his career.
May 11th – 3:45 PM ET
Marcus Stroman vs. Madison Bumgarner
Marcus Stroman was dubbed the ace of the Toronto’s new-look pitching staff in the offseason and has lived up to expectations in the role so far. The last time we saw Stroman toe the rubber, he pitched seven innings of two-run ball in shutting down the mighty Dodgers. While his 4-0 record looks the part, a 3.60 ERA doesn’t really do Stroman justice, as many runners he’s left on base have come around to score thanks to a faulty bullpen. His 60.5% ground ball rate is tops in the majors, and while his low strikeout totals raised some eyebrows in the early going, he has notched 17 K’s in his last two starts. If he really has put together his elite ability to generate ground balls with the stuff to get strikeouts, the sky is the limit for young righthander. Stroman also insists he can handle the bat, and he’ll get a real test in that regard on Wednesday.
Clayton Kershaw’s scheduled Friday start at the Rogers Centre was pushed back to Saturday, depriving us of an ace vs. ace matchup. For the disappointed among us, this series’ finale should be a nice consolation prize. While he isn’t the best pitcher on the planet, Madison Bumgarner certainly makes the short list of contenders. The man they call “MadBum” is 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA and a whopping 55 strikeouts in 43 innings in 2016. With largely a fastball / cutter / curveball mix, odds are that if Bumgarner throws it, batters swing and miss. The only exception is Bumgarner’s lightly used changeup, which he throws exclusively to right handers. This matchup could spell danger if the Jays can’t get their bats going (and probably will either way), as Bumgarner sports a career 8.8 K/9 but an 11.5 K/9 mark in 2016. One faint sign of life could come from a selective approach at the plate, as Bumgarner’s K/BB ratio is only 3.93 after he was above 5.0 in each of the past two seasons. Whether or not Toronto hitters can squeak out some walks could go a long way in determining this game. Building on an earlier theme, perhaps a return to his old NL West stomping grounds will awaken Tulo. In 33 at bats against the Giants’ ace, the Toronto shortstop has delivered a .379/.455/.655 line with two home runs and five RBI.
Additions and Subtractions
Brett Cecil is out on paternity leave, but will rejoin the club in the next few days. A corresponding roster move will be made in advance of the series, and we will update this post as soon as it is announced.
UPDATE: Ryan Tepera has been chosen to take Cecil’s place during the San Francisco series. Normally Tepera wouldn’t be allowed to be recalled as he hadn’t been down for the minimum 10 days, but because Cecil is going on the paternity list, Tepera is allowed to rejoin the big league squad.
There haven’t been too many roster moves of late coming out of San Francisco, but they did recently select the contract of RHP Alberto Suarez. He is taking the place of Vin Mazzaro, who recently had one of the worst outings in history, giving up nine runs (seven earned) in just one third of an inning against the Rockies. Interestingly, it may not have been the worst outing of Mazzaro’s career. He once allowed 14 earned runs to score in just 2.1 innings, giving up 11 hits and three walks.
The Giants also recently welcomed Joe Panik back into their lineup. Panik has missed six games with a groin injury.
Keep an Eye On
Kevin Pillar
Kevin Pillar won’t be looking forward to leaving Roger’s Centre for AT & T park, as he was 11/26 on the home stand, including a game winning home run on Friday night. He is still susceptible to right-handed sliders, to the matchup with Peavy should be interesting. He will also once again be platooned in the leadoff spot with Michael Saunders, so look for him atop the lineup on Wednesday against Madison Bumgarner.
Pitchers Hitting
With the games moving to the NL parks, the DH will no longer be in play. Not only does that mean that Justin Smoak will find himself once again on the bench with Edwin Encarnacion at first base, but it also means that pitchers will have to pick up the lumber and take some hacks. The Blue Jays pitchers took their batting practice hacks during the weekend series with the Dodgers, so they hope to be able to help their cause during the series. On the San Francisco side, Madison Bumgarner isn’t exactly your typical pitcher hitting. He has started off slowly in 2016, but in 2014-2015, Bumgarner put up a slash line of .252/.280/.469 and has hit two career home runs against Dodgers ace, Clayton Kershaw. The battle between he and Stroman should be very entertaining.
The Blue Jays Bullpen
Coming off yet another blown lead, there’s a good chance we could see Drew Storen removed from the primary setup role. Not only does he have greatly diminished velocity, but he has struggled with command, walking the leadoff hitter in back-to-back outings. Based on early season performance, it seems likely that if such a demotion happens, Gavin Floyd could reap the benefits. The former starter has been excellent out of the pen this year with a 2.03 ERA and a 15/3 K/BB ratio in 13.1 innings.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Giants |
| 1 Michael Saunders – LF | 1 Denard Span – CF |
| 2 Josh Donaldson – 3B | 2 Joe Panik – 2B |
| 3 Jose Bautista – RF | 3 Matt Duffy – 3B |
| 4 Edwin Encarnacion – 1B | 4 Buster Posey – C |
| 5 Troy Tulowitzki – SS | 5 Hunter Pence – RF |
| 6 Kevin Pillar – CF | 6 Brandon Belt – 1B |
| 7 Russell Martin – C | 7 Brandon Crawford – SS |
| 8 Ryan Goins – 2B | 8 Angel Pagan – CF |
| 9 Pitcher | 9 Pitcher |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Blue Jays will be looking to right the ship as they head west to take on the Giants. The inability to get timely hitting has been exasperated by a struggling bullpen. The Jays need their starting pitchers to continue to go deep into games, but they also need the bullpen to be able to hold a lead. The marque match-up will come Wednesday when the Jays send ace Marcus Stroman to face Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The Jays have, at some point this season, shown that they have all the pieces they need to be successful, but now its time to put all those pieces together to win ball games.
Lead Photo: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports