Danny Valencia

3 Things to Watch For Against the Mariners

Written by Greg Wisniewski, Dave Church, and Nick Dika

Who Will Play Second Base?

Devon Travis is back on the disabled list. After being hit on the wrist Sunday afternoon by a Luis Severino fastball, the assumption was that Travis’ wrist was the problem. On Tuesday, it was revealed that the injury sending Travis to the DL is actually a bone bruise in his knee, similar to the injury that ended his 2016 season.

Given the amount of recovery time last season’s injury required and the possibly (I’m no doctor) chronic nature of Travis’ bone bruises, the Jays may be without one of their better hitters for a prolonged period of time.

So who will play second base?

The most likely solution is that Toronto will run with some combination of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney to cover second base in Travis’ absence.

Defensively, Goins, a natural shortstop with the reputation as the superior defensive player, grades out fairly comparably to Darwin Barney at second base in advanced defensive metrics like UZR over the past several seasons. This season, however, both Goins and Barney’s defensive numbers are significantly lower than they have been in the past. I’d attribute that more to small sample noise rather than a concerning dip in either players defensive abilities, but it is worth monitoring.

Given Goins is a left-handed batter, the conventional wisdom would have him play against right-handed pitchers and Barney play against lefties. But offensively, Goins and Barney are comparable hitters against right-handed pitching: Goins career slash line of .231/.283/.343 is not significantly better than Barney’s .240/.285/.327. Barney is the decidedly better hitter against lefties, as Goins has only manage to muster a .197/.232./.295 line in his career.

Chris Coghlan, who has played primarily at third base and in the outfield this season, also has some experience at second base but doesn’t seem to be a significant offensive upgrade on either Barney or Goins. Then, there is also the seemingly ever-present Brett Lawrie speculation. While Lawrie’s Red Bull-fuelled personality may be seen as a bit challenging for his co-workers, the unemployed Lawrie slashed .248/.310/.413 last season in Chicago. On paper he could be a nice interim solution, but Lawrie is still recovering from a leg injury and appears to be transitioning into some type of brand ambassador role with Pringles.

Whomever John Gibbons decides to trot out at second base, don’t get too worked up about it – Barney and Goins are very similar players and should do a comparable job while filling in. While it always hurts to lose on of your better players, the team can be successful with Travis out.

A Familiar Face Returns

Danny Valencia was in the middle of his best season when he was in the American League East. He set then-career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, and TAv. Despite all that success, he never quite got a permanent position with the squad, and was let go for basically nothing. I am, of course, talking about his 2013 campaign with the Baltimore Orioles, for whom Valencia had 170 plate appearances that year.

Valencia is a bit of mystery as someone who has been a useful player at times but not useful enough that teams want to keep him. Jays fans will remember him from his 2015 season where he was a fantastic part-time player for them, but was mysteriously DFA after the trade deadline in favor of Munenori Kawasaki, whose most visible skill that Valencia didn’t possess was having played shortstop at some point in his career.

The A’s got a useful season out of Valencia and, like nearly every other team before them, didn’t seem to want to keep him. They traded the vagabond infielder to the Mariners for a prospect. After a tough April that had his starting spot in question, Valencia has righted the ship, notching a solid .824 OPS in May and a scorching 1.214 mark in the first six games in June. With Nelson Cruz dinged up, Valencia is even hitting cleanup for a team that won five games in a row (prior to their game on June 8th).

Valencia has historically been a better hitter against lefthanders than righthanders (an .864 OPS against .692, respectively), which should only come up in J.A. Happ’s scheduled start on Sunday. There’s not a lot of history to go on with Valencia and this staff, which will hopefully help the Jays have an advantage against the Mariners’ slugger.

John Gibbons Bullpen Dilemma

Last year the Blue Jays had the luxury of a starting rotation that went deep into games and remained healthy all year long. In 2017, the exact opposite has been true for the first 60 games. This has often left John Gibbons in a place where the team has to protect a lead, but the starter is way up in pitch count by the fifth inning. If you’re wondering the real reason for the eight and nine man bullpen this year, some of the reasoning might follow from just how many innings they regularly need from the ‘pen. Observe the last ten days of bullpen democracy. Green boxes are pitchers working with a day or more of rest, orange with zero days, and red would have been three days in a row. The clever manager has managed to avoid any “red” appearances.

reliever usage

However, there are problem signs. Five different relievers have five appearances, effectively working every other day. Gibbons isn’t always able to go to his ideal match-ups because he’s been hemmed in by his usage over the previous two days.

There’s a bigger issue though, and that’s the workload as it piles up over the course of the year. This team was built on the idea of a strong starting rotation and bullpen assembled out of useful, but unremarkable parts (Osuna excepted). In 2016 that formula had it’s IP leader as Roberto Osuna at 74 innings, and Joe Biagini at 67. This year, after 60 games, four relievers are on pace to throw more than those 67 innings. Leone (68), Barnes (73), Smith (76) and Ryan Tepera (90) are all racking up innings. Tepera is really being leaned on, considering that only six relievers in all of baseball exceeded the 80 inning mark in 2016.

I had to go back to 2009 to find a Blue Jays bullpen where two relievers (Shawn Camp – 79, Brandon League – 74) exceeded 70 innings in the same season. When pitchers get used more, they break more, and the Jays can ill afford to lose any of the guys performing well. Watch how Gibbons manages with a lead when he gets one in this series. If he leaves his starter in for a couple more outs than you might like, maybe he’s trying to figure out how to save some of these guys from moving their workload into uncharted territory. If he’s still going to the phone in the fifth, maybe he’s hoping there’s more help down on the farm, and the eight and nine man bullpen is here for a good long while.

Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

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