Toronto Blue Jays @ Mariners
September 19th – September 21st
Written by Matt Gwin and Elie Waiter
Rising and Falling. If a team is a contender, it seems to only be doing one of those two things these days. For the Blue Jays, coming off a successive series loss and series split to two of the American League’s worst teams, it’s falling. For the Mariners, coming off of two sweeps in their last three series, its rising. A month ago, it seemed implausible that either both Seattle and Toronto would be competing for the wild-card spots, but now, it’s possible that they’ll meet for one more game in October. If that ends up being the case, this series will serve as a preview of its own for the wildcard game. We’ll see the best starters from either side, and two, at times, potent lineups. The Jays will have to rediscover their potency, while the Mariners will hope that theirs lasts for a few more weeks.
Pitching Matchups:
Monday, September 19th – 10:10 PM ET
Marco Estrada @ Taijuan Walker
Back on Thursday, Jon Morosi reported that Estrada has been pitching with a herniated disc in his back for some time. The club hasn’t confirmed the injury, but it explains his atrocious performance over his past few starts. With Estrada unlikely to go a full six innings against Seattle, it’ll be interesting to see if Gibbons goes to Scott Feldman for some length to avoid using up too much of the bullpen in the first game of this crucial series.
Walker has shown flashes of brilliance this season, highlighted by his first career shutout against the Angels last Tuesday. Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, and… Ryan Goins all homered off of Walker last season, and the long ball will be the key to beating him again. Walker has supposedly revamped his delivery after midseason command struggles, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on.
Tuesday, September 20th – 10:10 PM ET
J.A. Happ @ Hisashi Iwakuma
Happ has been a rock during this turbulent time for the Jays rotation, and he’ll take the mound looking for his 20th win of the season against a lefty-loaded Mariners lineup. Six of the M’s first seven batters are lefties – including Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, and Adam Lind – but I’d be surprised to see any of them sit given how well the lineup has been performing.
Iwakuma has stymied the Blue Jays over his career, going 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA over six starts. He’s settled into a nice groove over his past four starts, and while he might not rack up the strikeouts against the Jays, he’ll be a tough change of pace after they face the overpowering Walker. The key to beating Iwakuma will be patience, as he’s given up multiple walks in six of his last nine starts.
Wednesday, September 21st – 10:10 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez @ Felix Hernadez
In the marquee matchup of the series, Sanchez will look to build on his promising start against the Rays. His blister may have been bothering him a little his last time out, but besides the eight strikeouts the most promising stat is that he didn’t walk a batter for the first time since May 20th. Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager all have the ability to handle even the toughest fastballs from Sanchez, but if he stays away from the heart of the lineup he should be able to overpower the rest.
This will be the Jays first time seeing the King this season, and it couldn’t come at a better time. Hernandez has struggled mightily of late, giving up six runs in three of his last starts and going just 4.1 IP in his last start against Houston. Inconsistent velocity has been the main issue for Hernandez. His fastball has averaged around 92 MPH, but from start to start that average has bounced from a low of 89 MPH to a high of 93 MPH.
Additions and Subtractions
With the expanded rosters all set, neither the Blue Jays nor the Mariners have made any notable injuries. The Blue Jays, however, will have Josh Donaldson back for his first full series after being forced to DH for the first couple of games in Anaheim. Whether or not he’s at full strength is still to be determined, but even 60% of Josh Donaldson is a worthy addition.
Keep an Eye On
The Middle of the Mariners’ Lineup
Ranking fifth in the league in true average, the Mariners don’t have the best lineup but they don’t lack some punch either. Their 3-4-5 L-R-L combo of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager is particularly dangerous. Each player a .300 TAv or higher, and they have a combined 99 home runs. Watch out, Roberto Osuna.
Aaron Sanchez
At times this season, Aaron Sanchez was a strike machine. At other times, he was a ground ball machine. In his last start, he struck out 10% of batters, and got 35.7% ground balls; falling on neither of his two successes. He battled a blister in his last start, which certainly could have driven his poor performance. Given that he was first demoted and skipped in the rotation (to keep his innings down), and then blistered, it’ll be interesting to see what a regular Aaron Sanchez can do in September.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Mariners |
| Devon Travis – 2B | Nori Aoki – LF |
| Josh Donaldson – 3B | Seth Smith – RF |
| Edwin Encarnacion – 1B | Robinson Cano – 2B |
| Jose Bautista – RF | Nelson Cruz – DH |
| Russell Martin – C | Kyle Seager – 3B |
| Troy Tulowitzki – SS | Adam Lind – 1B |
| Michael Saunders – DH | Leonys Martin – CF |
| Melvin Upton Jr. – LF | Mike Zunino – C |
| Kevin Pillar – CF | Ketel Marte – SS |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
It’s hard to call any singular series over a full season “defining”, but this one against the Mariners is going to come pretty close. Having gone from the top of the AL East, to the top of the wildcard, to the second wildcard spot, there’s not much further that the Jays can fall without creating some real turmoil. They’ll likely need to win the series just to hold off the Tigers. On the flip side of things, the Mariners control their own destiny. If they can sweep the Jays, they’ll hold a wildcard spot of their own by series’ end.