Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Thursday September 15th – Sunday September 18th
Written by Tammy Rainey and Dave Church
The recent tailspin for the Blue Jays has everyone on edge and our nerves are likely not going to be calmed by the idea of a seven game west coast road trip. It is frankly difficult to address the last two weeks of Toronto Blue Jays baseball. It has been perhaps a textbook example of “you can’t predict baseball.” I’ll leave it to the more analytical of my colleagues to detail the weirdness in specific statistical ways, but I will direct your attention to one relevant fact.
Beginning on May 19th and lasting through the end of August, no team in baseball was more successful at winning baseball games than the Blue Jays. That’s 15 weeks of being highly successful, and we’ve now endured two weeks of being an abject disaster. As much as recency bias and the ugliness of this slump weigh heavy on our emotions, logic suggests that the the larger sample is more indicative of the quality of the team. The question no one can answer, however, is when they’ll start playing like it again.
The opportunity certainly exists. The Angels are also struggling, and were not a particularly good team to begin with. If they miss this opportunity to right the ship, it will deal a serious blow to their chances.
Pitching Matchups:
Thursday, September 15th – 10:05 PM ET
J.A. Happ @ Daniel Wright
Happ had an encouraging performance against the Red Sox in his last start, getting the coveted “quality start” designation, with two runs allowed over six innings en route to a narrow 3-2 victory in the second game of the three-game series against the Red Sox. He did face the Angels in August, taking his fourth loss of the season. The biggest blemish in that start was the biggest threat in the Angels lineup: Mike Trout was 3 for 4 in that game with 4 RBIs and a run scored. If Happ can work around the perennial MVP candidate, he’ll put the Jays in good position to win.
Daniel Wright is a relative newcomer to the Angels, making only his second start with the club. Originally a tenth-round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in 2013, he made his major league debut this year despite a 6.13 ERA in AAA Louisville. After four appearances (two starts) and a 7.62 ERA, the Reds designated him for assignment. With their rotation decimated, the Angels claimed him. Nothing stands out among his pitch offerings: he has only 8 strikeouts in 18 innings. This should be a good matchup for the Jays, but their offense has made a lot of bad pitchers look good this month.
Friday, September 16th– 10:05 PM ET
R.A. Dickey @ Jered Weaver
It seems like a lifetime ago in mid-July when Dickey’s ERA dipped below 4.00, sitting at a positively respectable 3.93. It was quite an accomplishment for the knuckleballer, who was sitting as high as 6.75 on April 26th, and fans were calling for his removal from the rotation. Dickey has fallen back since then, to the point where the Jays started Francisco Liriano in Monday’s game against the Rays rather than risk the knuckleballer having a bad outing. His last start on September 5th was a bad one, with 5 runs on 7 hits in just over 4 innings of work. He also faced the Angels in August, getting a win in 6.2 innings of work, allowing just 2 runs. The Jays will look for him to repeat that as they try to get back into the hunt for the division.
The Jays made Jered Weaver look just fine in his last outing against them, as he went 5.2 solid innings on the way to an 6-3 Angels win. That game did start a modestly successful stretch for the veteran righthander, as he’s allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts including that one. The Jays did strand eight base runners in that game, which has been a distressing trend of late. With a guy whose fastball is in the mid 80s (and doesn’t spot the corners as good as Mark Buehrle did at his peak), the Jays should have another good opportunity to get some runs in this game.
Saturday, September 17th– 9:05 PM ET
Francisco Liriano @ Ricky Nolasco
The Jays got a good start from Liriano against the Rays on Monday, leading to their lone win in the series. The Rays’ swing happy ways played well with Liriano’s electric stuff and penchant for missing the strike zone, as he pitched into the seventh inning, allowing only two runs on three hits and striking out six. A righty heavy Angels lineup figures to be a bad matchup for Liriano, however: they are OPSing .812 against him (Though lefthanders are also OPSing a tidy .766 against him on the season). He did face the Angels once with Pittsburgh, and got absolutely rocked, going only 3.1 innings, with 10 (!) hits, 6 earned runs, 4 walks, and merely 2 strikeouts.
Nolasco has been bad ever since he signed a multi-year deal with the Twins in 2014, after having a career year with the Marlins and Dodgers in 2013. The Jays have generally had success against Nolasco, as he had a 5.84 ERA in 3 starts against the Jays during his Minnesota tenure. Nolasco features a fastball, slider, and sinker, and occasionally mixes in a slow curveball and a splitter. Something to watch that hasn’t yet borne fruit: Ever since coming over from the Twins, Nolasco has been using his sinker much more, and his fastball less:
Nolasco has been slightly better since joining the Angels, and it will be interesting to see how he mixes his pitches in this game, given the Jays’ success against him previously.
Sunday, September 18th – 3:35 PM ET
Marcus Stroman @ Alex Meyer
Stroman has been making adjustments as the season has gone along, and has quietly been better since the all-star break: His 3.97 ERA and 72 Ks in 68 innings has been a nice tonic to the struggles of Estrada and Sanchez. His last start had a decent final line, as he went six innings and allowed three earned runs against the Rays, though it was flattering, as the defense turned several double plays behind him. That may be the story of him as a starter, especially as he continues to find the right pitch mix, and try to get more strikeouts rather than balls in play. Stroman has not faced the Angels this season, which may work to his advantage: teams like the Red Sox and Orioles have done better against him after seeing him several times.
Meyer came over in the same trade that landed the Angels Ricky Nolasco. A former top prospect who was drafted in the first round by the Nationals in 2011, he’s struggled with shoulder injuries that have prevented him from making much impact at the major league level. With a fastball that sits around 96 mph and tops a 99, you can see why a team like the Angels, that doesn’t have a lot of high-end talent in the minors- would take a chance on him. He primary relies on the fastball and curveball, also throwing a changeup and a slider. With how much he throws his first two pitches, he might be a better reliever, but the Angels are trying him in the rotation to see what they have in this former prospect. This is another good opportunity for the Jays to build some momentum on offense, against a pitcher who hasn’t gone more than four innings in a start so far and has an ERA of 8.18.
Additions and Subtractions
The results of the MRI on Josh Donaldson’s hip were due in Wednesday night. As of this writing it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll be able to go for the beginning of this series or, indeed, when he’ll be back on the field. Otherwise the Jays will have a full compliment at their disposal. The Angels have had starting SS Anderlton Simmons listed as day-to-day this week after he suffered a right hand contusion. The Blue Jays also benefit from the mounting injuries to the Angels rotation as Matt Shoemaker remains sidelined.
Keep an Eye On
Josh Donaldson’s hip . . . and his bat
Beyond the question of when Donaldson will play again is whether or not the time off will bust up his week-long slump, and whether or not the pain he’s been playing with has finally caught up to him. The 0-for-23 run was coincidental timing, but John Gibbons said the slump pre-dated the injury. Hopefully both the hip and the bat heal up for the stretch run.
Can Jose catch fire?
Since coming back from his most recent injury, Jose Bautista has a .776 OPS. While there’s certainly a danger of pressing, Bautista will be under the microscope as the team is under increased pressure to turn things around. His play will affect not only the team’s fortunes, but also his own. As he approaches free agency, he’ll need a strong finish to get any sort of big contract.
Score Some Runs… Please
Overall the Blue Jays have averaged 3.5 runs per game in September. Among the Jays’ regular hitters, Tulo leads the way this month with a .939 OPS, Edwin and Devo both are contributing, but the fourth best OPS on the team belongs to Melvin Upton and it’s a not-robust .646. That’s pretty much all you need to know about the offense this month, and that’s going to have to change.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Angels |
| Devon Travis-2B | Yunel Escobar-3B |
| Josh Donaldson-3B | Kole Calhoun-RF |
| Edwin Encarnacion-1B | Mike Trout-CF |
| Jose Bautista-RF | Albert Pujols-DH |
| Russell Martin-C | C.J. Cron-1B |
| Troy Tulowitzki-SS | Jefry Marte-LF |
| Michael Saunders-DH | Andrelton Simmons-SS |
| Melvin Upton Jr.-LF | Jeff Bandy-C |
| Kevin Pillar-CF | Kaleb Cowart-2B |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
It’s all uphill from here. The Blue Jays currently hold a wildcard position, but besides jockeying with the Orioles for the first position, there are three other teams within two games and two of them are more than a little hot in September. The margin for error has evaporated. After the Angels, their remains no soft touch on the schedule. Toronto had better remember who they are beginning tonight.
Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports