The Jays are Missing their Regulars (and the Baseball)

There is something seemingly nitpicky about expressing consternation with a team that is sixteen games above .500 and occupies first place in their division, but this weekend once again dragged to light an issue increasingly being worthy of picking apart. The Toronto Blue Jays lost two games in the most spectacularly frustrating fashion this weekend, both of which involved poor pitch selections, defensive miscues and perhaps a bit of luck on the part of Cleveland.

While these may be the immediate causes of the two losses – the ones at which so many fans want to shake their fists and lay blame – the ultimate cause of both losses, the cause that really should be of concern, was the lack of offensive production. Both losses perfectly illustrated a frustrating trend that has recently become ever more apparent, so much so that manager John Gibbons, unprovoked and seemingly irritated, made it a talking point after Friday’s game:

Gibbons was candid on the number of strikeouts. "It's one thing for our big boppers but the other guys need to make adjustments #bluejays

— Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) August 20, 2016

The Jays were built to be an offensive powerhouse; they have a lineup full of mashers who can take a pitcher yard and change the complexion of a ballgame with one swing of the bat. When firing on all cylinders, it makes for an exciting brand of baseball that can devastate opponents. High strikeout rates are part and parcel of such an offense.

In comparison to the rest of the league, the stats are what one would expect: the Jays’ strikeout rate is 22.4 percent (sixth highest in the majors, league average of 21.0%), while the Jays’ ISO of .185 (fourth highest in baseball) is also higher than the league average of .163. On the surface, this suggests that what we’re seeing is simply a function the types of hitters that are on this team: higher than average strikeout rates in exchange for all that power. As such, why has it become a discussion point amongst analysts and fans? One must dive deeper into the statistics to answer that question.

One issue is that this is essentially the same lineup the Jays fielded last season – the one that led the world in runs scored. While the Jays have not scored at the same rate as last season, their isolated power is nearly identical to last season’s collective ISO of .188 (though last season’s league average was lower at .150). However, the Jays as a team are striking out nearly four percentage points more often this season compared to 2015, when their strikeout rate was 18.5 percent (which was actually below the league average of 20.4 percent).

While strikeouts are just another way of getting out, they are the least productive out, meaning that because the ball isn’t put in play they never lead to errors by the opposing team that can lead to unearned opportunities to score. More importantly, it doesn’t allow for some sort of batted ball luck that can turn weakly hit balls into hits.

Again, this is fine if the trade-off parlaying all that power into runs. However, in addition to the higher number of strikeouts this season, the Jays have scored just 596 in 124 games, compared to 670 runs through the same time frame in 2015 despite having hit 179 home runs versus 167 at the same point last season. Part of the reason, perhaps, has nothing to do with power. This team still hits home runs – lots of them. But despite the recent streak of 17 straight solo shots, the Jays are on pace to match their frequency of hitting home runs with men on base as they were last season. Currently, 4.2 percent of Jays’ at-bats with men on have resulted in a home run compared to 4.4 percent last year.

The problem, it appears, is that while home runs have not curtailed this season, the opposite is also true: with RISP this season, the Jays have struck out 27.4 percent of the time, whereas they did so just 20.7 percent of the time in 2015. Thus, although the team’s overall strikeout rate is not significantly higher than it was last season, they are striking out with greater frequency at the most inopportune times, adding to the level of frustration.

The issue of strikeouts has been glaringly obvious lately because, quite simply, the Jays are striking out with greater frequency. One might assume that this would be accompanied with an increase in power, but the trend has been quite the opposite:

Further, the percentage of games in which Jays’ batters have amassed double-digit strikeouts is also the highest it’s been all season:

Part of the issue is that the Jays have been able to field their full lineup in just a handful of games this season, which means career minor leaguers and bench players have been relied upon more than is ideal. August in particular has been difficult as both Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista went on the disabled list within days of each other (August 8^th and 10^th, respectively). The other issue is that, with the exception of just three players – two of whom are Pillar and Bautista – each individual is striking out more than their career norm.

Note: Italics indicates bench players.

Further, while it may be acceptable for the “big boppers” to strike out a lot, the statistics are highly varied. For example, while Justin Smoak, Russell Martin, and Edwin Encarnacion are striking out more than their career norms they are also hitting for more power. Troy Tulowitzki is striking out more while maintaining essentially the same power, Jose Bautista is hitting for less power while striking out with essentially the same frequency, and only Josh Donaldson has a lower strikeout ratio and higher power than his career norms.

Meanwhile, the results for the “other guys” are also quite variable. Melvin Upton Jr., for example, has struck out well above his career norm, but some of that can be attributed to switching leagues and he has been showing signs of turning things around as of late. Devon Travis is striking out slightly more and is hitting for slightly less power, but he required time to adjust after being recalled from the DL and his career norms represent a small sample size.

When two regulars who have managed to strike out less than their career norms are removed from the lineup, and they are replaced by guys who haven’t had time to get into a rhythm (such as Upton Jr.), the overall strikeout rate is bound to go up and, simultaneously, offensive production is likely to decline. One might also assume that with regulars out of the lineup, some guys are pressing at the plate, not making adjustments, failing to shorten their swings on strike two counts, and, in the case of the “big boppers”, hoping to have that one big swing that breaks a game wide open. And, when they do, it’s spectacular.

The problem is that they’re doing so less often. That, in combination with the higher strikeout ratio, is part of the reason why the offense has been so inconsistent this season and part of why the Jays are 14-22 in one-run games (both losses this weekend were by one run). Gibbons is correct: players need to make adjustments. But regular playing time matters. Once Pillar and Bautista return to the lineup the strikeout rate should once again normalize – which ought to happen just in time for the final playoff drive.

Lead Photo: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports