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Waking Up the Bats: Rays Series Preview

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

August 8 – August 10

Written by Tammy Rainey & Nick Dika

The Rays have hovered around .500 in “second half” games mostly on the strength of outstanding pitching; they’ve allowed the opposition three runs or fewer in 17 of 22 post-break games. Meanwhile, the vaunted Blue Jays offense has begun the month of August in a deep slumber. Over the past week they’ve been basically a two-man-crew with Jose Bautista’s .676 mark sitting as the fourth highest OPS on the team for the month.  Despite this, they finished the just-ended road trip with a 4-3 record.

Pitching Matchups:

August 8th – 7:057PM ET

R.A. Dickey vs. Jake Odorizzi

After coming off a string of three bad starts in which he allowed a five, six, and seven runs respectively, R.A. Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA) bounced back nicely in his most recent outing against the Houston Astros – pitching seven innings of one run ball last Tuesday.He’ll be making his third start of the season against the Rays on Monday evening, but has not enjoyed a tremendous amount of success, surrendering eight runs in 11 innings of work.

While Dickey’s recent string of poor performances has many worried about the veteran knuckleballer, it’s important to remember the ups and downs that come with the volatile pitch. Since coming to Toronto, Dickey has shown a significant improvement in his second half ERA in two of the last three seasons – posting a second half ERA of 2.80 in 2015. Even if Dickey isn’t able to replicate last season’s success, you could do a lot worse with your 6th starter.

After much speculation that Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA) would be dealt before the non-waiver trade deadline, no deal was made and Odorizzi remains entrenched at the top of the Tampa Bay rotation. He enters Monday night’s start red hot – coming off a string of three consecutive scoreless outings in which he has pitched 20.2 innings without allowing a run.

While Odorizzi’s peripheral numbers (BB, K and LOB rates) look very similar to last year’s, an uptick in his home runs surrendered (with a HR/9 up from 0.96 to 1.23) has seen his ERA rise to 3.70, up from last year’s 3.35.

August 9th – 7:07 PM ET

Marco Estrada vs. Drew Smyly

Marco Estrada (7-4, 2.92 ERA) returns to the mound on Tuesday night after another excellent start against the Houston Astros last week. Estrada allowed one run on four hits in seven innings of work last Wednesday in Texas.

With a back injury that forced him to the disabled list last month, it is thought that the six-man rotation that Toronto has elected to utilize may help Estrada by providing him with extra rest. Ideally, the extra day in-between starts allow Estrada to receive additional treatment and minimize the pain through which he is required to pitch. Hurting or not, Estrada has been very good almost every time he has taken the ball for the Blue Jays this season (he has yet to allow five earned runs in any start). There is no reason to expect this to change next time out against the Rays.

After a missing much of last season with a partially torn labrum, Drew Smyly’s 2016 has not gone well. Like many pitchers currently employed by the Rays, Smyly (3-11, 5.14 ERA) struggles to limit home runs. His DRA of 3.96 suggests that he has gotten fairly unlucky so far this season, but his HR/9 rate of 1.66 is good for 6th worst in all of baseball amongst qualified starting pitchers.

While Smyly has shown strong strikeout (9.27 K/9) and walk (2.32 BB/9) ratios, the home run issues have inflated his ERA. Smyly was able to limit the Blue Jays to 1 run on 4 hits (although he uncharacteristically issued 4 free passes) over 5 innings in his last start against Toronto back on May 16th.

August 10th – 7:07 PM ET

J.A. Happ vs. Blake Snell

J.A. Happ (15-3, 3.09 ERA) has continued to look like one of the best free agent signings of last offseason. While earlier in the season Happ had moved away from the pitching approach that facilitated his second half turnaround in Pittsburgh last season, the Pirate Happ appears to have returned. Happ was pitching to contact more and generating more ground balls but has begun to strikeout more batters as the season wears on. Since the All-Star break, Happ’s strikeout rate has spiked – shooting from 7.13 in the first half, all the way up to 10.22 (albeit the latter coming in 24.1 innings) in the second.

Happ’s worst start of the season came against the Rays in May when he allowed eighy earned runs in only two innings of work. Look for Happ to rebound this time out and turn in another strong start against Tampa.

Blake Snell entered the 2016 season as the 25 best prospects in baseball and the number one  prospect in the Rays’ system. Snell (3-4, 2.95 ERA) became a member of the Rays’ rotation in June and has enjoyed a solid rookie campaign, striking out 56 batters in 55 innings.

While the 23-year-old lefty has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter, he still struggles with his control, walking 4.42 batters per nine innings since his call up. Snell’s struggles with control also limit his ability to work deep into games, having only pitched into the 7th inning twice since this season.

He uses his fastball about 55 percent of the time and mixes in his slider, curveball and changeup equally. Snell has a 1.93 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23.1 innings in his last four starts dating back to July 19th.

Additions and Subtractions

The Rays will be without Enny Romero as he was placed on the DL yesterday and replaced on the active roster by one-time Jays prospect Danny Farquhar. OF Desmond Jennings also landed on the DL over the the weekend and activated Mikie Mahtook in his place. Logan Morrison remains sidelined.

Also worth noting, the Rays dealt Steve Pearce, who’d been leading the team with a .908 OPS, at the deadline which can only help Toronto’s fortunes n this series.

Keep an Eye On

Devon Travis: Superstar

As we know, Travis was rushed back from his minor league rehab because of the injury to Troy Tulowitzki and it took him a couple of weeks to get his timing back, but when he did, he got it back in spades. Since June 12 he’s slashing .341/.381/.571/.952 in 181 plate appearances. Sitting at the top of the order now, the young second baseman is a key to the Jays having a good night on offense.

Post All-Star freeze

Since returning to the lineup, Jose Bautista has hit a troubling .149, joining the Slumping Michael Saunders who has hit .155 since the break and oft-used sub Darwin Barney at a mere .100 in 40 AB. The Jays will be anxious to get these guys going.

Brad Busting Out

Brad Miller has been on fire for the Rays since the All-Star break, with a 1.033 OPS in 20 games (six HR) in an otherwise mostly impotent line-up. If the Blue Jays contain Millet and Evan Longoria, they will go a long way towards winning what look to be low scoring affairs.

Probable Lineup

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Logan Forsythe- 2B 1. Devon Travis – 2B
2. Kevin Kiermaier- CF 2. Jose Bautista – RF
3. Evan Longoria- 3B 3. Josh Donaldson – 3B
4. Brad Miller – SS 4. Edwin Encarnacion – DH
5.Steven Souza Jr.- RF 5. Michael Saunders – LF
6. Corey Dickerson- DH 6. Troy Tulowitzki – SS
7. Nick Franklin- LF 7. Russell Martin – C
8. Tim Beckham- 1B 8. Justin Smoak – 1B
9. Curt Casali/Luke Maile- C 9. Kevin Pillar – CF

via Roster Resource

Final Thoughts

Toronto fans will be scoreboard watching from here on out as the one-game-back Blue Jays try to take care of business while they wait for the inexplicably first place Orioles to regress. Baltimore meanwhile is out west for a seven game road trip to the bay area while the pursuing Red Sox are hosting the arch-rival Yankees.

Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

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