Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
July 29 – July 31
Written by Molly Tissenbaum and Dave Church
The Orioles and the Blue Jays square off for the third time this season, as the struggling Orioles make their way to the Rogers Centre. The Orioles are coming off a series loss to the Rockies as well as a make-up game loss to the Twins, and hold a 1.5 game lead on the Blue Jays in the AL East. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rockies prior to an off day, flipping the starts of R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada so Estrada could start the opener of this crucial 3 game set. With the Orioles reeling, this is a good time for the Jays to make up ground, but not the only opportunity they’ll have: the Jays do have three more series’ against the Orioles after this one.
Pitching Matchups:
Friday July 29, 2016, 7:07 PM ET
Marco Estrada vs. Kevin Gausman
After his scheduled start on Wednesday against the Padres was pushed back, Marco Estrada will take the mound tonight against the Orioles. Estrada was not his best in his first start after coming off the disabled list which sidelined him for 3 weeks. He gave up 7 hits, hit two batters, but battled and managed to keep the Padres to just two earned runs over 6 innings. In atypical fashion, he fell behind the Padres hitters and had to work his way back into counts. At home this season, Estrada has kept opposing hitters to just a .167 batting average, and just 0.94 WHIP.
Kevin Gausman will make his second start against the Blue Jays this year. Gausman is 2-7 on the year, with a 3.77 ERA, but threw 7 innings of shut out ball last time out against the Indians on July 23. Gausman struggles on the road, posting a 4.94 ERA, and opponents are hitting .302 against him. Gausman features a four seam fastball that sits between 96-99 mps. He also features a sinker, slider, splitter, and changeup. Against right handed hitters, he throws his four seam fastball 66% of the time, and his 12 to 6 curveball 15% of the time, almost twice as often as he uses it facing lefties.
Saturday July 30, 2016, 1:07 PM ET
J.A Happ vs. Yovani Gallardo
J.A. Happ will take the hill on Saturday afternoon against the Orioles. Happ is coming off a 6 inning shut out performance against the Mariners, where he gave up just one hit and walked just 4 hitters. He has two shut out performances in his last three starts. Happ has been relying on his great four seam fastball more often in July, throwing it 54% of the time. In the month of July hitters are posting just a .160 average against his fastball, but are hitting .250 against his sinker.
Yovani Gallardo has struggled on the road this year, posting an unimpressive 6.94 ERA away from home. Against right handed hitters, he throws his slider 32% of the time, followed closely by his sinker 30% of the time. He relies more heavily on his fastball against lefties, throwing it 33% of the time. Gallardo is winless in his last three starts against the Rays, Yankees, and Rockies. In July, his sinker has held hitters to a measly .119 batting average, down from .291 in June.
Sunday July 31, 2016, 1:07 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez vs. Chris Tillman
11-1 on the season, Aaron Sanchez continued to prove why he belongs in the starting rotation in July. Opposing hitters managed just a .177 batting average against him in the month of July, which allowed him to keep the ball in the park, giving up just one home run in the month. Over his last 7 starts, Aaron Sanchez is 5-0 with a 1.53 ERA, with a clean 1.00 WHIP. His sinker is his go-to pitch, and it helps him generate a ton of ground ball outs. He throws it 65% of the time to right handed hitters and 47% of the time to lefties.
Chris Tillman, 14-3 on the year, will face Sanchez on Sunday afternoon. He is 6-2 on the road this year, with a 3.74 ERA. His four seam fastball generates a lot of swings and misses from opposing hitters, and he features a sinker, changeup, cutter, and a knuckle curve. He relies on his four seam fastball 41% of the time to both lefties and righties. Tillman has faced the Jays twice in 2016, beating them once, but keeping the Jays hitters to just a .220 team batting average.
Additions and Subtractions
The Blue Jays have made a number of roster moves over the last few days, with the trade deadline in sight. On July 26, the Jays optioned RHP Ryan Tepera to Buffalo. The Jays also traded RHP Drew Storen and cash to Seattle for Joaquin Benoit. The Blue Jays also traded minor league pitcher Hansel Rodriguez to the Padres in exchange for Melvin Upton Jr., and on July 27, the Jays optioned Bo Schultz to Buffalo.
Keep an Eye On
Orioles’ Offensive Struggles
The Orioles have been front runners in the American League East all season, having been driven by an excellent offense. They lead the league in home runs, are third in OPS, and eighth in total runs scored. Coming out of the all-star break, their offense has sputtered, managing only 38 runs in 14 games. Given the inconsistency of their starters, they’ll need to get back to their slugging ways to keep their lead on the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Darren O’Day vs. Jose Bautista
Bautista and O’Day’s history is well known at this point. With both of them coming off injuries, it’ll be interesting to see who has the upper hand. In his career, Bautista is 7 for 18 against O’Day with 4 home runs, 9 RBIs, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts. With Bautista having done fairly well against O’Day (in a small sample size, it should be noted), perhaps both O’Day and Brad Brach will draw some late inning work against Joey Bats.
Brett Cecil vs. Chris Davis
Cecil vs. Davis has been a less heralded matchup, but one that figures to be just as crucial to how the series turns out. Davis has struggled against Cecil in his career, going just 2 for 19 with 2 walks, 2 runs scored, and 3 RBIs. Though Cecil hasn’t been his usual dominant self this year, he’ll be the one that John Gibbons turns to for a key out against Davis late in the game.
Probable Lineup
Baltimore Orioles |
Toronto Blue Jays |
| Adam Jones – CF | Jose Bautista – RF |
| Hyun-Soo Kim – LF | Josh Donaldson – 3B |
| Manny Machado – 3B | Edwin Encarnacion – DH |
| Mark Trumbo – RF | Michael Saunders – LF |
| Chris Davis – 1B | Troy Tulowitzki – SS |
| Jonathan Schoop – 2B | Russell Martin – C |
| Matt Wieters – C | Kevin Pillar – CF |
| Pedro Alvarez – DH | Justin Smoak – 1B |
| JJ Hardy – SS | Devon Travis – 2B |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
This is an important series for the Jays, as we saw when the Jays ran out a sub-optimal lineup against the Padres on Wednesday, so they could save Estrada’s start for the series opener against the division leader on Friday. With an off day yesterday, and the Orioles playing their third game in a third city in three nights, the Jays should try and take advantage of a potentially weary division leader to make up some ground, as the Orioles have had an irritating habit of defying predictions to be much better than the statistics suggest they should be.
Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports