This Week in Blue Jays: Don’t Count Out Marcus Stroman

It is unusual that one game during the course of a week can eclipse all others so completely, given that each game is equally weighted over the course of the season. But, there’s nothing usual about a nineteen inning game. Friday’s game is tied for the longest game in Blue Jays’ franchise history in innings and second longest in duration. There are so many game stories that have been written about that epic 2-1 loss at the hands of the Cleveland Indians: the audacious strike zone of Vic Carapazza, the ejections of Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin and John Gibbons, the use of two position players as relievers, the inability of the Jays to score despite loading the bases twice. Buried beneath all of this, however, is one key element has been somewhat overlooked, one that has implications beyond the scope of this one game: Marcus Stroman’s outstanding performance.

Hailed as the de facto ace of the Jays’ starting rotation prior to the start of the season, Stroman entered 2016 lofty expectations placed on his shoulders not just by the fan base, but also himself. After suffering a devastating injury during spring training of 2015, Stroman – through pure determination and grit – rehabbed his way back to the mound to win all four of his regular season starts in September (all against AL East opponents) with a 1.67 ERA over 27.0 innings pitched. There was little doubt, it seemed, that Stroman, brimming with confidence and swagger, would continue to dominate the opposition.

For his first eight starts, Stroman did just that, posting an ERA of 3.54 while holding opponents to a .220 batting average and .256 slugging percentage. Then, inexplicably, the wheels fell off. Over his next eight starts, opponents hit .353 with a slugging percentage of .568, with Stroman posting an ERA of 7.54 over 45.1 innings, raising his season ERA to 5.33, tied for 6th worst in the league. To say that he was struggling would be an understatement, and for the last several weeks debate has raged amongst media and fans about what to do with Marcus Stroman.

The crux of the debate was outlined by Steven Tzemis of CBC Sports, who looks at both sides of the argument for sending Stroman to Buffalo to work on his mechanics. On the one hand, lost in that poor eight game stretch were two good starts against the Phillies and the Twins, while four of those starts came against the offensive powerhouses Orioles and Red Sox, suggesting that Stroman’s struggles were in part due to drawing starts against two of the then-hottest teams in baseball.

Sending Stroman down would mean Drew Hutchison being recalled from the Bisons to take his place, who, despite his 2.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 14 starts down in Buffalo, has a large enough sample size in the majors to suggest that he is not capable of facing big league hitters. In 28 starts last season, Hutchison had a 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. On the flip side, there is strong data to suggest that Stroman would benefit from working through his mechanical issues in Triple-A rather than trying to sort them out against major league hitters. His velocity is down this season on every pitch, particularly compared to his rookie season:

Additionally, batters are hitting him hard, with a 33.6% hard contact rate copared to 21.8% in 2015 and 23.5% in 2014, while his soft contact rate has decreased from 24.4% last season to 16.4% this season, suggesting that his recent struggles are more than just facing good opponents.

The Blue Jays have thus far elected to allow Stroman to work things out while toeing the rubber every five days – a decision that has been met with some criticism from those in the fan base who seem to forget, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi points out, that Stroman is still a relatively inexperienced pitcher with just 41 career big league starts under his belt, and is bound to face some adversity as he continues his development. For his part, Stroman has been working refining his slider, adjusting his pitch mix and getting the ball down, watching video to see if his delivery was somehow tipping his pitches, and making a conscious effort to do his thinking between starts and “trust the process” while on the mound.

Last Sunday in Chicago, he introduced a mechanical adjustment that kept his hands lower at the start of his delivery, and was rewarded with 12 groundball outs on sinkers down in the strike zone. Though not a fantastic start, it represented a step in the right direction, and brought about a conversation between Stroman and general manager Ross Atkins in Colorado in which Atkins expressed the club’s confidence in Stroman and their desire to help him succeed.

Stroman has no problem wearing his heart on his sleeve, displaying emotion that leaves no doubt as to how he’s feeling about a particular performance. While that may rub some people the wrong way, it is indicative of just how badly Stroman wants to be “that guy”, so much so that he uses the words of his doubters to fuel his efforts.

Taught by his father to work hard and play with a chip on his shoulder as a way of overcoming his stature, Stroman embraces the negativity: “I see everything anyone says about me. I read the blogs. I read the tweets. That’s fuel. That’s motivation. I see people say I should be sent to [Triple-A] Buffalo, that I should be in the bullpen, that I shouldn’t be in the majors. Those are the same people who said I shouldn’t have played college baseball at Duke. They’re the ones who said I’m 5-foot-8 and that I was too short to be a starting pitcher. Now I’m struggling, and I’m hearing it all again….Fine. I like to have those doubters in my life.” His desire to reach his full potential has him at the ballpark every day from 2pm to 11pm, doing whatever he can to improve.

This hard work and effort culminated in a fantastic outing on Canada Day, in which Stroman gave up just one run on five hits while striking out six over 6 2/3 innings, with ten of his twenty outs came via the ground ball. While this performance may be easy to overlook within the context of a nineteen inning game, and the fact that it’s just one performance, the importance of it cannot be understated. Though it is a small sample size, he recovered his velocity on Friday, averaging 94.27 on his fourseam fast ball, 93.49 on his sinker, 88.15 on his slider, 82.91 on his curve and 91.17 on his cutter. And, while it’s just one game, it represents a huge step forward (after taking a baby step last outing in Chicago) that will be necessary in order for Toronto to make a playoff push.

With Aaron Sanchez already being monitored and likely heading to the bullpen at some point this season, and Marco Estrada’s unpredictable back issues that could potentially sideline him during the second half of the season, it is absolutely critical that Marcus Stroman regain his form. At whatever point in time Sanchez is inevitably moved to the bullpen, Drew Hutchison will take his place in the rotation. Beyond him, there really are no other viable options either in Buffalo or in the bullpen to step into the rotation should Stroman be unable to work out his issues while taking the mound every fifth day.

As it stands, the Jays likely will look to add to their pitching depth before the non-waiver trade deadline of August 1st, but with few assets and the need to bolster the floundering bullpen, the Jays may not be able to acquire someone who can (or should) step into the rotation for any length of time. Stroman wants to be “that guy”; the Jays need him to be “that guy”. It’s a fine balance between allowing a player his growing pains as he develops and ensuring that pitcher sent out there gives his team the best chance to win. In the case of Stroman, I would argue that no one has earned that bit of leeway more than he has, no one works harder, and no one is more determined. Beyond that, his adjustments have translated into two consecutive starts that each demonstrated marked improvement over the last. That’s really all he needs to do. He has confidence in his abilities, the team has confidence in his abilities. Perhaps it’s time everyone involved take a step back with their lofty expectations and allow him room to grow.

Quick Hits:

• Marco Estrada, knowing that he had to take the mound despite suffering from terrible back pain, put in an absolutely gutsy performance in Saturday’s 9-6 Jays win that snapped Cleveland’s 14-game winning streak. It appears likely that he will miss his next start against Detroit on Thursday which, given that the All-Star break is next week, would give him some much-needed extra rest.
• Ryan Goins, who pitched the eighteenth inning on Friday, said after the game that his arm felt fine and that he would be able to play on Saturday. However, just hours before Saturday’s game, Goins was placed on the 15-day disabled list with right forearm tightness. I have no doubt that Goins was sore after yesterday’s pitching performance; I also would not be surprised if his DL stint has more to do with the need to call up reinforcements rather than an actual injury. Either way, he deserves a tip of the cap (as does Darwin Barney) for stepping out of their comfort zone and onto the mound in an effort to secure their team a win.
• Anyone who watched Friday’s marathon against Cleveland is well aware of Vic Carapazza’s egregious strike zone, but may be unaware that this is not the first time he’s called a game in which Stroman has pitched. Carapazza was behind the plate for Stroman’s start against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS and, according to Baseball Savant, Carapazza called strikes on 15 percent of balls outside the zone. Moreover, Carapazza is one of ten umpires who have a 0.85 correct call rate (the lowest is John Hirschbeck with a correct call rate of 0.84). No one can expect a human to be perfect, but they should be held accountable when they consistently perform below average and likely impact the outcome of the game. Umpiring should never be the story; robot umps would ensure that the players dictate the outcome of the game.
• Veteran Jason Grilli, who has quickly become a team leader and fan favourite since being traded to Toronto by the Atlanta Braves, is no stranger to making a comeback. Here, he compares pitching to an artist who likes to paint, and talks about his dream of raising a World Series banner with the team that he loved while growing up – yes, Jason Grilli grew up a Toronto Blue Jays fan.
• And, finally. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson appeared on the MLB Network’s Play Ball Saturday morning, during which he discussed his approach to hitting, his love of baseball, the possibility of an acting career, and, of course, his hair. It really is must-see TV.

Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports