Toronto Blue Jays @Baltimore Orioles
June 17 – 20
Written by Nick Dika and Greg Wisniewski
The Jays and Orioles go at it again, this time in Baltimore. Just last weekend, the Jays welcomed the Os for a very, very crazy four game set at the Rogers Centre. The theme of the series was certainly the offense, including a walkoff home run, and 10-9 and 11-6 Jays victories. The final game of the series was Baltimore’s third loss in a row, something that hadn’t happened to them since April 26th. They shook that off fairly quickly, heading in to Fenway and taking two of three from the second place Red Sox. The Jays, for their part, took the lowly Phillies to school, after a shutout loss in their first game, they scored 31 runs (twice with the pitcher hitting!) while taking the next three games from them.
Pitching Matchups:
Friday June 17, 7:05pm
Aaron Sanchez vs. Mike Wright
Aaron Sanchez is looking to rebound from a less than stellar start against these same Baltimore Orioles last weekend at the Rogers Centre. Sanchez allowed six runs and four home runs (the first time all year he’s allowed more than one HR in a start) in just five innings of work. Despite the lackluster performance, Sanchez was still able to walk away with the win, which is more than deserved after a tough luck outing in Detroit that saw him throw eight innings of two run, 12 strikeout ball and leave with a no-decision. Sanchez has been every bit the pitcher the Blue Jays had hoped he would be when they moved him into the rotation, the rest of the baseball is starting to take notice that the Jays may have a budding ace on their hands. The biggest question surrounding Sanchez now have to do with a potential innings limit and how the Blue Jays will manage their star pitcher’s workload as the season moves into the second half. Friday will be Sanchez’s second start against Baltimore this year.
Mike Wright takes the ball for the Orioles in the series opener on Friday night. The O’s rookie is now most famously known in Toronto for his opinions on Edwin Encarnacion’s shortcomings as a hitter. While Wright does throw hard, his velocity and stuff have not yet translated into results at the Major League level – pitching to a 5.31 ERA and a 3.39 BB/9 in 11 starts so far this season. Wright primarily uses a fastball and slider combination and surrendered four runs (including five walks) in five innings of work against Encarnacion and the rest of the Jays last weekend.
Saturday June 18, 4:05pm
R.A. Dickey vs. Yovani Gallardo
R.A. Dickey continues to be as dependable as it gets when it comes to starting pitchers, even if he gets there in the most bizarre of ways. Dickey’s 4.16 ERA so far this season is right around where it was expected to be and there is no reason these results should change moving forward. R.A. has also seen his strikeout rate increase slightly this season – boosting his K/9 from 5.29 in 2015 to 6.09 in 2016. Dickey gave up three runs in six innings in his only start against Baltimore this season back on April 20th.
Yovani Gallardo has built a reputation for himself as a bit of a Blue Jay killer on the back of a three strong starts last year while he was pitching with the Texas Rangers. Gallardo didn’t allow a run against the Jays during two regular season starts and followed this up with a five inning, two run performance in the ALDS. Despite Gallardo’s perceived ability to keep the Jays’ offence at bay, his inability to strike batters out or work deep into games (he only once pitched into the seventh inning once last season) likely means that the Blue Jays offence will catch up to him sooner rather or later. Injuries (biceps tendinitis) have limited Gallardo to four starts this season, where he has gone 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA (4.92 DRA).
Sunday June 19, 1:35pm
Marcus Stroman vs. Chris Tillman (Probable)
Stroman is coming off his best start of the month, surrendering two runs on six hits in seven innings of work, albeit against the offensively challenged Phillies. Prior to his outing against Philadelphia, Stroman had struggled a bit, but looks to hopefully be turning a corner. While his inability to strike batters out has been on full display over the last few starts, this is the same pitcher that put up a 3.65 ERA over 130 innings in his rookie season (while striking out 7.65 batters per nine, compared to 6.12 this year). Stro is still young enough to turn both his season and concerning strikeout/hard contact rates around. The Orioles offence is far more dangerous than the Phillies, so Stroman’s weekend performance should give us a better indication to whether or not he has truly broken out of his slump.
While the Orioles have not officially announced a starter for the season finale on Sunday afternoon, the assignment will almost certainly fall to Chris Tillman. At 28, the right-hander may be in the midst of a breakout season, as he has pitched himself to a 9-1 record with a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. While some peripherals indicate that he is due to regress (his DRA sits at 3.56 and LOB% is at 84.9%), Tillman has drastically increased his strikeout rate this season – improving his K/9 to 8.7, up from last year’s 6.2 and a career rate of 6.8. While Toronto’s lineup is righty heavy, Tillman hasn’t shown a strong platoon split in his career. Tillman gave up two runs in six innings in his only start against Toronto this season to date
Additions and Subtractions
For the Orioles, Manny Machado could have been serving his four game suspension for charging Yordano Ventura on the mound at any point this week, but instead he will have his hearing on Tuesday as the MLB’s wheels of justice turn slowly. Vance Worley was placed on the DL June 14th with a groin strain. His final outing prior to going on the DL was in relief of Ubaldo Jimenez after he lasted only 1/3 of an inning in against our very own Blue Jays. He has been replaced by Odrisamer Despaigne.
Jose Bautista injured his toe against the outfield wall in Philadelphia on June 16th and has been placed on the fifteen day disabled list. Taking his place on the roster will be Darrell Ceciliani, the outfielder acquired from the Mets in the offseason. Michaels Saunders sat out one game against the Phillies with a hamstring issue, but was in the lineup for the final game. Troy Tulowitzki is again facing live pitching in rehab games, but he will not return this weekend.
Keep an Eye On
Edwin Encarnacion
How bright can one star burn? Every year it seems we see Edwin Encarnacion try to answer this question. It may not be safe to stare directly at EE while he is hitting, as his six home runs in his last six games could damage your retinas. In the last seven days, he is hitting .526/.640/1.474. He may never have an 0-fer again.
The Long Ball
Baltimore is baseball’s Home Run Leader. They’ve hit 103 big flies so far, including 14 in the last week. The Jays aren’t far behind of course, with 96. They are catching up too, with 18 in the past week. Baltimore’s left field is designed to create dramatic home-run-theft types of catches, so we might see a few of those attempts this weekend.
Lefty Problems
The Orioles have Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez with big power, not to mention switch hitter Matt Wieters and newcomer Hyun-Soo Kim. All of these left handed hitters would once have faced Brett Cecil when the time was right. With Cecil on the DL, John Gibbons has been seeking an effective lefty for the bullpen for almost three months, to no avail. Left handed relievers that the Jays have deployed this year have a .311/.360/.508 line against all competition. If it’s close and late, look for Buck Showalter to exploit the Jays most obvious weakness by using his bench.
Probable Lineup
Toronto Blue Jays |
Baltimore Orioles |
| Ezequiel Carrera RF | Adam Jones CF |
| Josh Donaldson 3B | Hyun Soo Kim LF |
| Edwin Encarnacion DH | Manny Machado SS |
| Michael Saunders LF | Mark Trumbo RF |
| Justin Smoak 1B | Chris Davis 1B |
| Russell Martin C | Matt Wieters C |
| Devon Travis 2B | Pedro Alvarez DH |
| Kevin Pillar CF | Jonathan Schoop 2B |
| Darwin Barney SS | Ryan Flaherty 3B |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Blue Jays sit in third place, but are just two games back of the division lead in the AL East. They have a better record on the road this year than at home. Their bullpen is performing well enough to support a high scoring team, and the starting rotation has yet to have any serious holes open up. Baltimore is also playing very good baseball; you don’t get to first place without that. Their starting rotation has been a weak spot from day one, but a multitude of home runs and a solid bullpen have elevated their results. There are no juggernaut teams in the East this year, so both are looking at a reasonable chance of a series win this weekend. It’s a series where you expect hard fought games, and tip your cap if you come out on the losing end.
Lead image credit- Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports