Entering the 2016 season, no one could have predicted what would transpire with what had been the Toronto Blue Jays’ greatest concern: the starting rotation. In fact, there existed so much angst that Mark Shapiro and then-interim general manager Tony LaCava, in anticipation of losing David Price to free agency, re-signed Marco Estrada to a two-year deal worth $26 million in what would be the new regime’s first significant move of the offseason. While there were still many unanswered questions that persisted even throughout spring training, the one thing that appeared clear was that Marcus Stroman would lead the rotation as the anointed “ace” of the staff. Everyone else seemed questionable for one reason or another.
But, this is not about the rotation as a whole. It is a tale of two pitchers – of expectations giving way to unforeseen reality.
When the Jays re-signed Estrada back in November, it was obvious that the deal was an acknowledgment of his career-year in 2015, during which he went 13-8 with an ERA of 3.13 over 180+ innings, as well as his stellar performances in two playoff elimination games. Previously, Estrada had the dubious distinction of surrendering the most home runs during his 2014 campaign, and had earned just $10 million total over eight years in the majors. Many feared that his 2015 performance was unsustainable and that regression was inevitable, particularly given the fact that his .216 BABIP was the lowest in the league since the late 1980s. There was concern, too, that Estrada benefitted greatly by throwing to catcher Dioner Navarro. This narrative existed for a reason. In nineteen starts with Navarro, Estrada had a 2.63 ERA; in fourteen starts with someone other than Navarro catching, that ERA climbed to 4.11.
Marcus Stroman, on the other hand, had just come off a season which saw the young star make a miraculous comeback from a torn ACL to go 4-and-0 in the month of September when the Jays were fighting for top spot in the AL East. His dedication and perseverance throughout the course of his rehab was inspiring; his self-confidence and cocky swagger to accompany his six-pitch repertoire elevated him to the status as a number one despite not having completed one full season in the majors.
Those were the expectations then. This is the reality now.
Though the term “ace” is typically tossed about too liberally, Tyler King of the Canadian Baseball Network says that there should be no reluctance to call Estrada “ace” despite the fact that Stroman had been anointed as such before the first pitch of the season. In 2015, Estrada boasted the fifth best ERA in the American League, and his 1.04 WHIP was second only to Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel. He held opponents to the lowest batting average (.203) in the American League and allowed the fewest hits (134) of any pitcher who threw 160 innings. Rather than succumb to regression towards his career norms as once would have expected, however, Estrada has elevated his game even further this season. In his first twelve starts, opponents are batting just .168 against him – tied for lowest OBA in the majors with none other than Clayton Kershaw. As for his seemingly unsustainable BABIP of .216 last season, Estrada’s current BABIP is a paltry .189, which is the best in the majors by 34 points. His K/9 is down from last year as well, and he has already amassed a 1.4 WAR despite having a WAR of 1.8 throughout the entire 2015 season, suggesting that 2015 was not a mere fluke. His four wins this season (the fact that he has a 4-2 record is evidence enough that a pitcher’s win-loss record is a poor indication of his success) have all come on the heels of a loss. He has also set a new Blue Jays record for the lowest WHIP (1.03) through his first forty starts.
More impressively, perhaps, is that despite not being overpowering – his K/9 rate is just 7.92 – he has one of the filthiest changeups in the league, with a velocity gap of 11.6 mph in comparison to his four-seam fastball. Moreover, Estrada is able to throw his changeup down in the zone to all batters, holding his opponents to a .124 batting average with 38 of his 71 strikeouts coming by way of the change.
They key to his success, as written about by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, is that Estrada has learned to manage his frustration when on the mound. His focus is solely on what Russell Martin is calling, though he does admit to being frustrated by his walk rate. His poise has never been more on display than his absolutely lights-out performance against the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS last October, or when he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning last week against the formidable Red Sox lineup – the third time he’s taken a no-hit a team through eight innings in the past year. To say that he has been consistent would be an understatement.
Marcus Stroman, as Steve Buffery writes, has been consistently inconsistent thus far this season. In his last six starts he has given up 48 hits and 27 earned runs, and has failed to record a quality start in three straight appearances. This is in stark contrast to his .714 career winning percentage going into Thursday’s game and is certainly not expected of a pitcher who was projected to be the team’s number one. The key difference is that Stroman has been struggling with his command as of late, particularly with his bread-and-butter pitch, the sinker. Instead of getting the pitch down in the zone as he was at the beginning of the season, it’s now running flat, generating fewer whiffs and a higher OBA.
There is no doubt that the persistent Stroman will work hard to make the necessary adjustments to get his sinker sinking again. The real challenge for Stroman will be to channel his frustration – which can often be seen in the dugout after he’s been pulled from a game – in a positive manner given that this is the first time he’s struggled for an extended period. Baseball is fraught with periods of mediocrity even amongst its most elite – Stroman can turn to David Price’s 4.63 ERA or the fact that Anibal Sanchez has been moved to the bullpen to understand that even the best in the league face adversity at times.
Or, better yet, he can look no further than Marco Estrada, the newly anointed ace of the Jays’ staff.
Quick Hits:
- Injured short stop Troy Tulowitzki suffered a setback during his rehab start in Dunedin on Friday, taking himself out of the game after experiencing discomfort in his injured right leg. Tulowitzki, who was scheduled to play in Buffalo today and to re-join the Jays on Monday, says he just “didn’t feel right”, clouding the timeline for his return. Tulowitzki, who has struggled offensively since being traded to the Jays last season and hovered around the Mendoza line all this season, had begun to show signs of life at the plate. In the fifteen games prior to landing on the DL, Tulowitzki batted .286/.339/.526 with three home runs, ten RBI and an OPS of .874 in 62 plate appearances. Whether or not he can pick up where he left off is anyone’s guess, but regardless of how well Darwin Barney is playing, Tulo has to be the everyday short stop upon his return – any suggestion otherwise defies all logic.
- After winning nine out of twelve games entering Tuesday, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports speculated that the Jays won’t trade either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion and wondered whether or not the front office would be willing to trade significant prospects at this season’s trade deadline. Rosenthal goes on to say that the Jays should add, not subtract, but with a farm system rated by Baseball America as the seventh worst in the league, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins may be unwilling to trade away the likes of Anthony Alford, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Conner Greene, Max Pentecost and Dalton Pompey. It’s likely that the Jays – unless completely out of the race – will still need bullpen help as well as a starter, given the supposed innings’ limit placed on Aaron Sanchez.
- Meanwhile, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes that the Jays will try to sell off Bautista and Encarnacion if they’re not contennders by mid-summer, as investing big money in 30-something year old players does not seem to fit Shapiro’s style. As I’ve said before, I’ve already made my peace with the likelihood of the two sluggers donning another uniform next season – but, man, do I want them to win a championship with Toronto.
- Jon Heyman speculated that manager John Gibbons likely has job security for the foreseeable future, but is a longshot to return in 2017 unless the Jays have a huge year. The two logical candidates to replace him are Eric Wedge and Torey Lovullo, both of whom were previously employed by the Indians. Like the Bautista and Encarnacion conversation, I find these discussions quite tedious. I quite like Gibbons, but could not care less if he is replaced next season. I understand why Shapiro and Atkins would want to bring in a guy of their own choosing, but that’s something to be concerned with down the road. Right now, the only thing I’m concerned with is winning.
- And, finally. Jason Grilli – who has been given the eighth inning set-up roll - was pumped after closing out Saturday’s victory against the Orioles, engaging in a celebratory hug with fellow former Pittsburgh Pirate Russell Martin, and it’s pretty damn great.
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