Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
June 3 – 5
Written by Joshua Howsam and Steve McEwen
After some some strong play against the Red Sox and Yankees over the last 12 games, the Blue Jays get a brief respite from the gauntlet of the AL East. After an 8-4 stretch, the boys in blue roll into Detroit to take on the .500 Tigers. The overall record may be poor, but the Tigers are coming in hot, fresh on the heels of a sweep of the free-falling Chicago White Sox. Their starting pitching has started to turn around, so this could be an interesting series.
Pitching Matchups:
Monday, June 6th – 7:10 PM ET
J.A. Happ vs. Michael Fulmer
One of the most controversial free agent signings on the market this winter, Happ continued to prove doubters wrong in his last start as he once again stymied an offense with his variety of fastballs. If you somewhat subscribe to the mulligan ERA type of thinking (removing the worst start from the numbers) Happ’s ERA is a measly 2.09. Considered a non-workhorse type pitcher coming into the season Happ is now on pace for 212 innings and has made it through 6 innings in all but one start. Happ has faced the Red Sox once this year throwing 7 innings of 1 run, 4 hit ball with just 1 walk allowed.
Acquired from the New York Mets in the Yoenis Cespedes trade, some viewed Fulmer as an overpayment and others not quite as much. A divisive prospect coming up, Fulmer had posted very good numbers at nearly every stop in the minors, but was always viewed as a health risk who struggled to throw a consistent third pitch. Seven starts into his pro career, the fireballing right hander has posted a very respectable 3.24 ERA over 41.2 innings. With a 25.4 percent strikeout rate, it will be interesting to see how the Blue Jays strikeout ridden offense fairs.
Tuesday, June 7 – 7:10 PM ET
Aaron Sanchez vs. Matt Boyd
There is a case to be made that Aaron Sanchez has been the Blue Jays best starter to this point in the season, though there are three very strong (and consistent) options for that title this year. In his last start we might have seen the best game of non-fastball pitches from Sanchez ever, with his changeup generating three swinging strikes on five pitches and his curveball generating four on 20. His nearly 60% groundball rate and 21.4% K rate bring back some fond memories of A.J. Burnett in Toronto. Against a righty heavy Tigers lineup, Sanchez should be able to thrive. Though he should still be solid against any lefties, as Kyle Matte tells us, thanks to an improved curveball.
As a rookie, Matt Boyd struggled with both the Blue Jays and the Tigers (after the David Price trade) posting an ERA near 8.00 over 50+ innings. This season things look much different as in three games and two starts, he’s sitting at a 3.94 ERA and showing much more of the trademark control he exhibited in the minor leagues. That being said, it’s not all roses for the tall lefty. The Blue Jays right handed sluggers should be salivating as Boyd has allowed 19 home runs in his 73.1 big league innings, including 13 to right handed hitters. If he can’t get that fastball down, it could be a long night, reminiscent of his outing against Toronto last year where he allowed three home runs in six innings.
Wednesday, June 8 – 1:10 PM ET
R.A. Dickey vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Just when everyone appears ready to write off the aging knuckler, R.A. Dickey turns it around and provides quality innings all year. It seems to be an annual occurrence where he starts out slow and then turns it on. This year certainly doesn’t seem like an exception, as over Dickey’s past seven starts, he sports a 2.74 ERA and a ground ball rate hovering around 50 percent. When Dickey was most effective with the Mets. he was generating groundballs and appears to have found that ability once again. A higher usage of his changeup plays a role in his improved play as it gives the hitters one more thing to keep in their mind, and another pitch he can throw for a strike when he falls behind in the count. The less often Dickey needs to throw his fastball, the better.
There was some thinking in the baseball world that Jordan Zimmermann was on the verge of decline last season, as his ERA rose to 3.66 after being above or around 3.00 the previous four seasons. His DRA was no better, sitting at 4.48. Zimmermann took what appears to have been a much smaller deal in the offseason than it would have been expected heading into 2015, but now with the Tigers he has seen a resurgence. After posting allowing zero runs in his first three starts Zimmermann has continued his success with a 2.58 ERA on the season. Zimmermann has seen his groundball rate increase somewhat, but he no longer strikes batters out, and his DRA of 4.26 suggests that some negative regression could be in order.
Additions and Subtractions
Much of the Blue Jays roster seems to be intact following a tough series in Boston. The only change of note was that Ryan Tepera has been sent back to Buffalo, with Matt Dominguez getting the recall to help spell the sore Josh Donaldson, and to give the Blue Jays another bat off the bench.
Similarly, the Tigers are mostly healthy coming into the early week series with the Jays. They recently activated swing man Shane Greene from the Disabled List (out since early April), and recalled left-handed reliever Blaine Hardy. They also recently selected the contract of former Mets closer Bobby Parnell, but he is a shell of what he once was.
Keep an Eye On
Those Tigers Bats
Justin Upton may be having a horrible season, but the rest of the Tigers lineup is mashing as expected. We tend to think of the Blue Jays as having the scariest grouping at the top of their order, but Jays pitchers will have it equally tough with Detroit. They will have to run through a group that starts with leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler and then is followed in order by a healthy Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Nick Castellanos, before finally getting to the slumping Justin Upton in the seven-hole. There is a really strong mix of power, contact, and speed in that group. They all hit right-handed (except V-Mart, the switch hitter), so while Aaron Sanchez should be alright, Happ could have some trouble.
Blue Jays Bashers
As mentioned, the Jays hitters are no slouches either. While the overall hitting hasn’t completely turned the corner, the power is still very much there. With 75 home runs, Toronto currently sits fourth in the American League, and has hit 14 in their last nine games. Both Boyd and Fulmer have shown some susceptibility to the long ball in their brief pro careers, so we could be some fireworks just north of Windsor, Ontario.
Battle of the Bullpens?
If these games move past the starters, look for the Blue Jays to actually have the advantage. This may sound crazy to those who have watched this team all year, but Grilli and Biagini seem to have helped stabilize the setup crew in front of Osuna, and Storen has pitched better lately. In contrast, the Tigers bullpen is an absolute mess. They sit 27th in baseball with a 4.64 ERA, and have only gotten decent performances out of Francisco Rodriguez, their closer, and lefty setup man Justin Wilson. The rest of the relief corps has been completely unreliable, “led” by former Blue Jay Mark Lowe and his 8.50 ERA in 22 appearances.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Tigers |
| Jose Bautista – RF | Ian Kinsler – 2B |
| Josh Donaldson – 3B | Cameron Maybin – CF |
| Edwin Encarnacion – DH | Miguel Cabrera – 1B |
| Michael Saunders – LF | Victor Martinez – DH |
| Justin Smoak – 1B | J.D. Martinez – LF |
| Russell Martin – C | Nick Castellanos – 3B |
| Devon Travis – 2B | Justin Upton – LF |
| Darwin Barney – SS | James McCann – C |
| Kevin Pillar – CF | Jose Iglesias – LF |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Blue Jays find themselves just 2.5 games back of the Red Sox in the division, and could find themselves in a playoff position as early as Monday. The Tigers have been playing well so far, but the Jays are probably the better team. Another series win here before heading back home could go a long way.
Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports