Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
June 3 – 5
Written by Mike Passador and Dave Church
Didn’t we just do this? The Jays face the Red Sox for the second time in two weeks, and the teams have had five series’ against each other in total already this year. The Jays lost six of the first eight contests between the two teams, but rebounded in last week’s matchups to take two of three, behind an offense that is starting to show what people expected of them for the entire season. Though a rotation shuffle from the Jays will have fans missing the ace-ace and knuckler-knuckler matchups, this still looks to be an exciting series between two A.L. East contenders.
Pitching Matchups:
June 3rd – 7:10 PM ET
R.A. Dickey vs. David Price
News of Dickey rounding into form is probably a little premature, though there was clear improvement in May after his typically awful April. In six starts, he never allowed more than four earned runs, and only went less than six innings once. He did face Boston in the series last week, and had a no-hitter going into the sixth inning before the lineup came up for the third time, and they began to figure him out. With the bullpen slowly getting better, look for John Gibbons to have a quicker hook if Dickey struggles in this outing.
Seeing David Price struggle with his new team, while potentially enjoyable for Jays fans, is baffling. Our series preview last week touched on a few of the reasons this might be: his BABIP is a little higher, and he’s potentially leaving hittable pitches in the zone. Digging deeper, there’s a reason those are off: his velocity is down across the board so far this year, which may be leading to fewer swings and misses.
Price has been better recently: Over his last four starts, he’s logged 27.1 innings, allowed 21 hits, 6 walks, and 8 runs, striking out 26 batters. Even the Jays’ deep core of right-handed hitters are in tough against the Red Sox’ presumptive ace.
June 4 – 4:05 PM ET
Marcus Stroman vs. Steven Wright
The Jays’ opening day starter struggled in the month of May, even if we count his eight inning gem against the Rays to open up the month. Though his May ERA of 4.54 is similar to his April mark of 4.37, he allowed 46 hits and 11 walks over 39.2 innings in the month. The Red Sox saw him in the series last week as well, and got their hacks, managing 11 hits in just 5.1 innings. BP Toronto’s own Kyle Matte wrote about how Stroman’s breaking pitches have gotten more similar, which may be something to monitor as we watch him in this start.
Knuckleballer Steven Wright has been fantastic for the Red Sox this season. He only made the rotation due to the injury to Eduardo Rodriguez, and has posted an impressive 2.45 ERA so far this year. He notched three complete games in the month of May (a month that raised his ERA even with that), and has only allowed more than three runs in a start once in ten starts so far this year. The Jays saw him twice in April, and only notched four runs in 12.2 innings against the knuckler.
June 5 – 1:35 PM ET
Marco Estrada vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
After signing a two-year extension with the Blue Jays in the offseason, there were many who wondered if Marco Estrada would continue to be as good as he was for the Jays in 2015. After an injury to start the year, Estrada has not missed a beat, continuing to be dominant even as the league got a full year’s worth of information on him. He’s been the Jays’ best pitcher so far, continuing to baffle hitters with his excellent changeup. Estrada is coming off a gem against the Yankees, going eight shutout innings and striking out six.
Eduardo Rodriguez is making just his second start of the season. He won his debut start against the Orioles, going six innings and allowing two runs and striking out three. He was a pleasant surprise for Boston in 2015 after being acquired from the Orioles, and is expected to be a mainstay in a rotation that had a lot of question marks after David Price coming into this season. After three great starts to begin his major league career in 2015, the Jays lit him up for nine runs in 4.2 innings. As he is left-handed, he is another good matchup for the Jays’ right-handed heavy lineup.
Additions and Subtractions
The biggest news for the Jays of late was them acquiring Jason Grilli from the Braves, and he made his Blue Jays debut in the final game of the series against the Yankees. Chad Girodo was sent down to Buffalo to make room for Grilli on the roster. They also waved goodbye to infielder Jimmy Paredes, trading him to Philadelphia, and welcoming back Ryan Tepera from Buffalo in his place.
The Jays may catch a break with Jackie Bradley Jr. being placed on the paternity list on May 31, so he may miss a game or two of this series. If he does, the Jays will see Rusney Castillo instead. The Red Sox also optioned reliever Heath Hembree prior to their series against the Orioles to make room for Eduardo Rodriguez on the roster, banishing Clay Buchholz to the bullpen.
Keep an Eye On
Red Hot Red Sox
As a team, the Red Sox are leading all of Major League Baseball in runs, average, RBI, OBP, slugging and of course, OPS. They boast a +76 run differential, second to only the juggernaut Cubs at +129. Mookie Betts has been a force as of late, becoming the first player ever to hit five home runs in two games out of the leadoff spot. Xander Bogaerts comes into the series with a 25 game hit streak, while Dustin Pedroia has a 23 game hit streak against the Blue Jays. Jackie Bradley Jr. recently saw his 29 game hit streak end, and will rejoin the team following his activation from the paternity leave list. On top of all that, David Ortiz is having a monster season (he currently sports the 4th best TAv of all big leaguers with at least 100 PA’s) that has many second guessing his decision to retire. Keeping Boston’s bats at bay should be a fun challenge for Toronto’s starters.
The Steadily Improving Blue Jays Bullpen
Beyond Roberto Osuna, Gavin Floyd and Joe Biagini, Toronto has been in need of reliable late-inning pitchers, having called on a long list of names to try and get the job done. Fresh off the acquisition and high leverage deployment of Jason Grilli, the Blue Jays seem to be ready to roll with an eight man bullpen in hopes of getting clean innings between the starters and Osuna. After an extremely rocky start, the Jays now rank 13th in bullpen ERA and have gotten much better efforts from their relief corps. Beyond Grilli’s introduction into the late-inning mix, Drew Storen was able to convert a save against the Yankees and may be working his way back into John Gibbons’ circle of trust. Aaron Loup is Toronto’s lone lefty and will probably be tasked with retiring Ortiz or Travis Shaw at some point this weekend. The Jays’ bullpen surrendered four runs in 12.2 innings against Boston in the last series, and keeping them off the scoreboard in the middle and late innings will be paramount in chasing down the division leaders.
Look Out On Landsdowne
For Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, Fenway Park has always been a fun place to visit. The two have bludgeoned Red Sox pitching over their careers, especially in Boston. Bautista has slashed .277 / .366 / .598 with 22 dingers and 51 RBI in Boston while Encarnacion has ‘only’ put up a .296 / .370 / .527 mark with 12 homers and 37 RBI. It’s probably a safe bet to pencil in at least one big game from the powerful duo. Beyond Joey Bats and EE, Josh Donaldson has a career .348 / .459 / .551 slash line at Fenway. Fans strolling around on Landsdowne street should be on high alert.
Probable Lineup
Blue Jays |
Red Sox |
| Jose Bautista – RF | Mookie Betts – RF |
| Josh Donaldson – 3B | Dustin Pedroia – 2B |
| Edwin Encarnacion – DH | Xander Bogaerts – SS |
| Michael Saunders – LF | David Ortiz – DH |
| Justin Smoak – 1B | Hanley Ramirez – 1B |
| Russell Martin – C | Travis Shaw – 3B |
| Devon Travis – 2B | Chris Young – CF |
| Darwin Barney – SS | Christian Vasquez – C |
| Kevin Pillar – CF | Blake Swihart – LF |
via Roster Resource
Final Thoughts
The Blue Jays ship up to Boston at 29-26 and suddenly within 3.5 games of the Red Sox. It’s been a struggle to reel off wins in the early going, evident in the fact that three games above .500 represents the season’s high point so far. Coming off a sweep of the Yankees, the Jays will try to keep the good times rolling and can put a serious dent in Boston’s division lead with a strong showing in Fenway.
Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports