MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Why The Blue Jays Should Be Talking Extension With Michael Saunders

Much has been written and spoken over the previous six months about the pending free agency of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Whether or not the Blue Jays can or even should pay what it might take to retain one or both for years to come, particularly in light of the very thin crop of free agents in the upcoming off-season, which puts both men in the driver’s seat as arguably the best hitters available, has taken up a large chunk of the narrative in Toronto this year.

Previously, I made the case that Toronto could, in fact, afford to fit both men into their budget going forward with a relatively modest 5% increase in budget year over year, but it’s looking increasingly likely that not only is that not going to happen, if there ever was a chance, but it would be very unwise.

This change in circumstance hasn’t been brought about by new budget dictates, or by some expressed opinion by President Mark Shapiro, or even by the performance of the pending free agents in question, but rather because of the struggles of two other players: Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin. Tulowitzki is producing like his old self lately (a .949 OPS over his last 12 games) but going 30+ games with Goins-like production was disturbing.Martin, for his part, is still wandering in the wilderness offensively. The two combine to make up over 40% of the Jays’ presumptive budget for each of the next three seasons. One should not assume that either player is done as an offensive force, particularly Tulowitzki, and both bring considerable defensive value to somewhat mitigate the expense, but they do highlight the problematic nature of attempting to extend Bautista and Encarnacion.

Neither player brings significant defensive value and together they could conceivably cost more than Tulowitzki and Martin’s combined salary. That would make for 60% or more of the team’s budget invested in aging players that could mysteriously go off the cliff the way Martin has this season. Just because you can afford to do a thing doesn’t mean it is wise to do so. While I have considerable faith in Bautista, I also have as much or more in Tulowitzki (less so in the bats of Martin and EE over the next 3 years) but there’s a limit to how much you spend on faith. One need look no further than, for example, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.

However, there’s another pending free agent on Toronto’s roster that ought to be the focus of their attention: Michael Saunders.

Saunders presents the same fortuitous confluence of circumstances that allowed the team to sign team friendly deals with Bautista and Encarnacion in 2011 and 2012, respectively. He’s a player with an uncertain track record coming into this season, in his case due to injuries, a slow start to his major league career, and a history of left/right splits that made some doubt his full-time status. But some of the parallels jump out at you.

Coming into his age 29 season in 2010, Jose Bautista had played a mere 575 games (for comparison, at the same point in his career Carlos Delgado had 829 games played), 124 of them in a Toronto uniform. He had three seasons in his previous four with an OPS in the .750s and that was his presumed production level. How does Saunders compare, this being his age-29 season?

Hitter G PA AVG OBP SLG OPS 2B 3B HR SB BB K OPS+
Jose Bautista 575 2038 .238 .329 .400 .729 90 8 59 14 220 434 91
Michael Saunders 562 1955 .230 .301 .381 .682 82 14 51 54 181 499 93

While they are not identical players, Saunders is left handed (a big plus for a RH dominated team in itself) and faster, less likely to draw a walk (9.5% as opposed to 10.8% for Bautista) and somewhat more prone to strike out (25.5% as opposed to 21.8%), as measured by OPS+ they are, at a similar point in their career, very similar guys.

I’m not making a case here that Saunders is about to turn into one of the most prolific hitting outfielders in baseball, as Joey Bats did, but rather that in their career to this point, they bring similar statistical production to the negotiating table. Saunders came into Sunday’s games with an OPS of .941, higher than Josh Donaldson finished with in 2015. That figure would have ranked 3rd among all major league outfielders last year. Of course, no one can say for sure that Saunders will continue at this level of production, which brings us to Edwin Encarnacion.

In the last three seasons previous to his age-29 season, Encarnacion had a rather checkered track record. He’d basically been forced on Toronto by the Reds in the Scott Rolen trade in 2009, been something of a tire fire defensively at third base, was waived off the Jays 40-man roster after the 2010 season, and then re-signed as a free agent less than a month later. His production to that point in his career was somewhat better than either of the outfielders, but not remarkable. But in the middle of 2012 he had an OPS of .947 and the Jays seized the opportunity to sign him to an extension worth $27 million over 3 years with a $10 million option for the current season. Bautista’s extension, coming off his breakout season, paid him $8 million for 2011 and $14 million per each year since.

To be sure, those deals were signed four and five seasons ago, and the baseball salary structure steadily inflates, but this is counterbalanced by how very open Saunders has been about his desire to play out his career in a Toronto uniform.  He’s capable of playing right field if/when Bautista moves on, he is, as previously noted, a left-handed bat, and has some speed to his game as well. To this point in the season, he also looks like he may be an offensive force to reckon with going forward. The counter-argument is that he also features a track record of injury that would give anyone pause. But if that were not there, we might be talking about a $20 million market for him in next year’s off-season as well, given the dearth of quality options.

Signing a long term extension at a somewhat discounted rate involves risk on both sides, as Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion might tell you. But I’d argue that given Saunders’ desire to play for the Jays, that risk can be significantly mitigated. A three year deal in the $30-40 million range, with an option or two at a much higher level (something around $16 million perhaps?) could be a fit, and it would be a smart play for the Jays at the mid-season mark unless something goes very wrong between then and now.

Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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3 comments on “Why The Blue Jays Should Be Talking Extension With Michael Saunders”

Arjonn

It seems like the condition of / prognosis for Saunders’ knee is a possible if not probable major consideration. If the Jays and their medical people feel he can be counted on to play say 145-150 games, he’s significantly more desirable than if he looks like a ~120 game guy, not just because of his own production but also because it puts more onus on having a better 4th OF to fill in. And that’s before taking his prior injury history into account.

I agree. I’d never expect him to touch 150 games in season. That is, defiantly not 150 games in the OF. Perhaps with the decreased demand for the DH spot when (if) Jose and Edwin are gone, Saunders could have regular rotation to that spot in the lineup. I’d imagine he’d still not touch 150 games plateau.

Arjonn

One possibility to consider might be some kind of salary structure that’s tied to games played.

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