This Week in Blue Jays: On The Outside Looking In

There exists no other sport that relies more heavily on analytics than baseball to break down on-field performance into measurable, mathematically-relevant facts to help better understand performance. Yet, no other sport lends itself more to the creation and propagation of narrative – an account of events that lends itself to storytelling, either real or imaginary, as a way of understanding events. This generates a juxtaposition between actually analyzing the problem and discussing it in abstract, opinion-based manner with no real relevance except that it feels relevant. In other words, fans have a tendency to be quite emotional about their team, which in turn fuels whichever narrative seems to explain what the fan is seeing on the field.

This is no more apparent than the 21-and-24 Toronto Blue Jays, whose magical and historical second half of 2015 had fans and media alike wanting – nay, expecting – more of the same for 2016. Instead, what we’ve seen after 45 games is a mediocre team that is woefully underperforming in the single most critical aspect to their success last season; namely, their world-beating offense. Through the first 45 games this season, the Jays are an abysmal 0-for-20 when they allow four or more runs, whereas they were 10-and-22 in such games to this point last season. The disappointment through the first quarter of the season has been palpable, bordering on panic. Everyone is offering their opinion and suggestions to improve this team. Worse than that, however, they are offering baseless opinions on the players and management, viewpoints that often simply serve to fuel the fires of panic.

Since the sudden departure of former general manager Alex Anthopoulos, many fans have convinced themselves that Mark Shapiro is somehow the bad guy who chased the former GM out of town, ready to build the team in his own image. Central to this narrative has been the belief that if the Jays didn’t turn things around this weekend against the lowly Minnesota Twins, manager John Gibbons (a fan favourite) would be fired and replaced with one of Shapiro’s guys, Eric Wedge (currently a player development adviser for the Jays down in Buffalo). Yet, in his conversation with Sportsnet’s Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt, Shapiro stated that although “there’s both a sense of urgency as well as a sense of disappointment with how we’ve played to date,” he is “incredibly confident” in Gibbons as manager and recognize him as “part of the solution” due to his strength, toughness, and team commitment.

Instead, Shapiro says he is focused on adding players via trade and replenishing the base of prospects at the upcoming draft. He is adamant that he not react too quickly – unlike many in the fan base that have become emotionally invested in this team. It is easy to blame the manager when things go wrong through the use of hindsight, and rightly or wrongly, the coach or manager is always the first sacrificial lamb when a team is performing under expectations. I have openly stated this season that if things don’t change around relatively soon, John Gibbons will be the first to go, and my reasons, too, have predominantly been rooted in narrative. The truth of the matter is, however, that we just don’t know, and thus should take statements such as those from Shapiro as being a more accurate representation of how things are rather than allowing our own disappointment skew our perception of reality.

Another common fan theory is that there must be some sort of rift in the clubhouse that is affecting their on-field performance. The “evidence” for such a suggestion? That the players seem to be having less fun this season, such as the lack of their “stir it up” hand gesture so widely used last season. Again, it is easy to look for the most minute details and portray them as “The Reason” why they are playing so poorly. Instead, those who would know better than any of us (that being the players) have been adamant that the disconsolate clubhouse appears that way only from the outside. Said Marcus Stroman: “Strictly an outsider’s view I’d say. We’re fine. We’re a very confident group, the clubhouse hasn’t changed one bit since the very beginning. We know what we’re capable of and hopefully we get things rolling here.” And, for what it’s worth, my understanding is that the most seemingly uncomfortable player – Troy Tulowitzki – has actually become quite comfortable in Toronto, despite his offensive woes.

The most pervasive narrative, however, is centered around the notion that Jose Bautista made things difficult when he came to spring training camp demanding a certain salary and term, unwilling to negotiate. This, along with his worse-than-normal offensive performance thus far this season, has once again drummed up the idea that he is a selfish player and that his attitude and leadership (or lack thereof) are among the reasons for the team’s poor performance. This has prompted calls for him to be traded (despite the fact that as a 10-and-5 player and can’t be traded without his permission).

In reality, however, his presumed insistence of hitting in the three-spot, and the notion that the entire lineup does nothing but swing for the fences with no regard for getting on base, were dispelled on Thursday when the Blue Jays juggled the lineup, inserting Bautista into the leadoff spot. Even after it was announced that it was the players, including Bautista, who had brainstormed the idea in an effort to jumpstart the offense, prominent members of the media were speculating that Bautista would not be happy about the move, feeding the pre-existing narrative that Bautista insists on hitting third. While fans criticized the team for a lack of passion for winning, Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, and Russell Martin (in other words, the team leaders) were going to the coaching staff in an attempt to help the team.

Bautista explained: “Hopefully it’s going to change the way that teams are attacking us. I think it’s going to play well into people’s roles and the specific skill sets on this team. I’m getting pitched tough and I’m getting walked a lot. And I’m sure Donaldson would love to hit with people on base. And Edwin would, too.” This approach makes good baseball sense, as you ideally want the player with the highest OPS to leadoff. Bautista, for his part, leads the American League in walks. Having Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders hit fourth and fifth makes sense as they are likely to come up with runners on base and have been the most consistent hitters. All of this should take some of the pressure off of the struggling Troy Tulowitzki (though he seems to be heating up), Russell Martin, and Ryan Goins, who instead can just focus on getting the bat on the ball. Some say that the lineup switch-up is gimmicky or indicative of panic (as suggested by ESPN’s Adnan Virk), but I would argue instead that the players recognize they are in a rut and that a change of mindset and approach may be what they need. Though it may not yield the desired offensive results, the new approach allows the team to make observations and collect data as to how pitchers adjust; data that can be analyzed and used to their future benefit.

Intertwined in all of this is the exciting news that second baseman Devon Travis, who has been hitting everything during his rehab assignment, should be ready to return to big club very soon. There narrative here is also strong. Writes John Lott: “The 25-year-old with all of 62 big-league games on his resume will return to great expectations, because his team has staggered through its first 42 games and desperately needs an offensive sparkplug.” Though it may be unfair to heap such high demands on a guy whose rookie season was cut short by injury, Travis’ return represents the hope that he – likely hitting in the leadoff spot – is the spark needed to get this offense going.

Travis’ return means the likely demotion of Ryan Goins, whose stellar defense can no longer make up for his ice cold bat. The story here is that Travis and Goins have become very good friends, messaging words of encouragement back and forth to one another without ever mentioning the fact that Travis’ return means management must make a decision must be made between the two of them. For their part, the two have brushed aside the narrative. “I want to be the starting second baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays, no doubt. That’s without question. Goins and (Darwin) Barney are there now. My job is to be the best teammate I can be until I can get back there, and if I’m the guy that’s in the starting lineup that day, I’m going to be ready to go.”

So what, if anything, does all of this amount to? The truth of the matter is that, as Stephen Brunt says, “this organization faces a predicament more daunting than did the 50-51 Jays under Alex Anthopoulos.” No one has established themselves in the setup role, the offense has regressed to near league average, and some players, such as Ryan Goins and Russell Martin, have become black holes at the plate. This season will likely not unfold as last season did – there are few deals to be made in May as teams hold out hope of making the second wild card spot, and those teams in a position to trade will want prospect capital – something the Jays are sorely lacking (consider it the cost of last year’s incredible run).

The only real options at this point are to either fire John Gibbons (which, as Brunt says, is a knee-jerk reaction), or wait and see if things improve. If not, Shapiro and Atkins will be left with the difficult decision of what to do around the trade deadline, which may involve trading Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion for prospects to a contender and retooling for the future around Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki. This is not narrative; it is the reality of the situation. Because, as Brunt so eloquently writes, “It’s a lot easier to talk about bean balls and brawls and bat flips and Old Testament justice and the sanctity of the game. Because in the final accounting, that stuff doesn’t add up to anything.”

Here’s hoping they right this ship before it sinks.

Quick Hits:

• On Wednesday, it was announced that beleaguered reliever Brett Cecil would miss at least a month due to a tear in his lat muscle. The injury comes as no surprise, given that Cecil showed a sharp decrease in Stuff, which led to a 5.23 ERA in 16 games. As the primary lefty in the bullpen, who shined in last year’s role as set-up man, it is imperative that he recover and return to form. The bullpen (save for Roberto Osuna and Joe Biagini) by and large has been a tire fire as of late, and could use all the help it can get.
• Meanwhile, lefty Aaron Loup was assigned to a rehab stint with the Buffalo Bisons on Saturday, representing the last hurdle in his return to the Jays following a forearm flexor strain suffered in March. Given Cecil’s injury, it is important that Loup return healthy and ready to fill a much-needed roll.
• According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the Jays have informed other teams that Drew Storen is available for trade. In fifteen innings over eighteen games, Storen has an ERA of 7.80, giving up 22 hits and 13 earned runs with a FIP of 5.40, a DRA of 4.10, and a WHIP of 1.733.  It seems unlikely that the Jays will be able to offload him at this point in the season, but it is interesting that their prized offseason pick-up may have lost the faith of the organization so soon into the season.
• While awkward interviews have endeared Joe Biagini to many in the Blue Jays fan base, he has quickly and quietly become one of the most reliable arms out of the bullpen. The Rule 5 pickup, who has been a starter his entire career, earned his first major-league save on Thursday night in a 3-2 win over the Twins that snapped a five-game losing streak. “The opportunity to be on this team is great…I’d like to believe I have the abilities to succeed at this level, and I’m grateful I have the opportunities.” I still on the fence as to whether or not I find him funny, but these are the types of statements l like to hear from a player who just wants to find ways to make his team better.
• And, finally. Marcus Stroman went undercover at a Best Buy to ask shoppers about the player (himself) on the cover of the new RBI Game. The fans were delighted when they realized who they were actually talking to, though I like to think I would recognize Stroman no matter what he’s wearing.

Lead Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sport