The Toronto Blue Jays are 18-17. While it may feel like we’re deep into the season, there are still 127 more games to go. Scrolling through Jays Twitter though, I don’t think anyone would guess that the team is sitting near .500. Sure, the games in September count the same as they do right now, but there seems to be a substantial amount of panic among Jays fans for early May.
For a good chunk of the fanbase, this was the first time the team faced the burden of expectations coming into a season. Obviously there have been previous offseasons that brought heightened hopes, but those teams faded before they ever had to face the crucible. Any capabilities we assumed existed were never actualized on the field. After 2015’s wild ride, we’re looking at genuine, honest-to-goodness expectations. The ‘We know how good you can be, now show us it’s for real’ kind. It’s a little strange to feel. However, the fun of last year subsides with each passing day and gives way to mounting tension.
That sort of pressure has its way of warping time, and it is equal parts surprising and reassuring to hear that we’re further away from July’s All-Star Game than we are from the Jays’ final spring training contest. For all the panic and pessimism, it’s still fairly early. It’s tense to watch sub-optimal moves unfold in real time, and they often get blown up into major stressors. Certain ideas or practices can certainly be bad, so I’m not advocating anybody cease complaining for the sake of ‘the bigger picture,’ but it’s important to try and stay even keeled about things as they unfold.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at some of the plotlines that dominated spring training coverage and see what, if any, resolution we’ve seen so far. My hope is that we’ll get two insights from this little experiment. One, we’ll see whether these issues are persisting; and two, we’ll realize how fast we can move from problem to problem when thinking about this team.
The Rotation
The big story was obviously the final spot in the rotation, as debate raged over who should toe the rubber every fifth day. Jesse Chavez, Aaron Sanchez, Gavin Floyd, and Drew Hutchison. Chavez never really got a shot, as the team seemed to like him more in the swing man, insurance role once held by the likes of Carlos Villanueva. Hutchison also seemed unlikely to take the final spot once the team brought in Gavin Floyd.
Sanchez was the right call to make from the jump. He dominated spring competition and, while his departure would compromise the bullpen, the organization simply could not afford to waste a player with Sanchez’s upside one inning at a time. In the end, there was a lot of hand wringing over a pretty clear cut decision. The move has paid off so far, as Floyd has become one of the only reliable relief options in the early going while Sanchez is sporting a cool 2.58 ERA in 45.1 innings and is currently fourth in the majors in groundball percentage. This choice has not persisted as an issue by any means, and thankfully any intense debates about the rotation were left behind in March.
The Bullpen
The Jays were looking pretty set in the bullpen once Sanchez was rightfully awarded a starting spot. Osuna, Drew Storen, and Brett Cecil would be the three shutdown guys complemented by Chavez, Floyd, Joe Biagini, and ideally Aaron Loup as a second lefty working in middle relief. Loup’s forearm injury opened up a spot for a cavalcade of relievers to try and pitch their way onto the major league roster for Opening Day. Steve Delabar, Randy Choate, Chad Girodo, Pat Venditte, and Ryan Tepera – with varying degrees of legitimacy – were all vying for the spot.
Choate, purely a LOOGY, didn’t show enough to the team’s brass in his short stint in Dunedin while Delabar’s inability to recapture his 2013 All-Star form also led to his release from the team. Chad Girodo had an outside shot thanks to a strong spring, and Pat Venditte’s ambidextrous offerings intrigued the organization, but it seemed that Ryan Tepera’s familiarity and his reverse splits against lefties would earn him the seventh and final spot in the bullpen. That was the case until the team signed lefty Franklin Morales on Opening Day Eve. Morales was placed on the DL shortly thereafter, resulting in a carousel of low end relievers in that final spot.
It’s not shocking to say that the Toronto bullpen has struggled to find their way thus far. However, it isn’t the seventh (and sometimes eighth) man who is the source of worry. The real concerns have been with Drew Storen and Brett Cecil, two pitchers who were viewed as near bankable assets coming into the year. And since this is an article about how reactionary and overblown things can be in the moment, a special brand of shame goes out to those who boo Brett Cecil. But anyway…
The New Department
One of this year’s spring training celebrities wasn’t a player on the field, but rather Toronto’s new Director of Performance, Angus Mumford. The move was part of the Shapiro regime’s desire to build up off-field aspects of the Blue Jays organization, namely the encompassing field of ‘performance’ as well as the analytics department. Mumford had previously spent 12 years at IMG and had worked with several elite military teams. A sports psychologist by trade, his addition was meant to help the Blue Jays with the mental side of the game. In addition to Mumford, the team hired a series of sports science experts to make sure that the Blue Jays could perform at their best.
Mumford was brought up often during spring training broadcasts, and though we haven’t heard much about the Performance Department since the games started to matter, one can only assume that some of their ideas about development, training and nutrition have been enacted. Among the more popular stories was an anecdote about the team taking unhealthy breakfast items off the menu in lieu of more nutritious options that left the players nonplussed. Another had the players rejecting mandatory early morning team breakfasts after road games. It was also mentioned that the players were given detailed diet and sleep plans to ensure that players would get the most out of every day, even off the field.
With input from their new department, the Blue Jays also delayed the spring training debuts of several players. Troy Tulowitzki didn’t make an appearance in the first three games while Jose Bautista wouldn’t appear in the lineup for the first week. Some worried that the irregular spring session would make for slow starts. After all, baseball players are creatures of habit. ‘New age’ techniques that mess with their routine could have adverse effects. Judging that claim using Bautista and Tulowitzki yields a mixed bag of opinions; Bautista seems to have been fine (and started out very well), whereas Tulowitzki has struggled to open the season. Personally, I don’t think any extra spring rest is to blame for his slow start.
I think you’d be hard pressed to find someone who isn’t on board with this hire. Any move that can help develop consistent competitive advantage and improve the team is probably worth the investment, especially if it can be done without surrendering assets beyond money. Even if the department turns out to be of minimal help, it’s a positive sign that the organization is willing to leave no stone unturned in trying to help their players succeed. With real games being played, Mumford and company will go about their business in relative anonymity until we run out of other things over which to fret.
Pulling Teeth
Even with the team’s stars receiving lots of scheduled rest, the most noticeable spring absence was that of Edwin Encarnacion, as EE wouldn’t take an official at bat during spring training. The Blue Jays’ number four hitter needed to have an abscessed tooth pulled on February 28th and would not participate in any drills until March 8th. Though he was scheduled to make his first appearance in mid-March, he was shut down for a week with a strained oblique and ended up missing the entire Grapefruit League schedule. Headed into the season there was some speculation as to whether the lack of at bats would make for an even slower start than normal.
Edwin has a career wRC+ of 104 in March and April and 113 in May, his two lowest monthly numbers. His career average is 120, so he more often than not makes up for his tough starts with some kind of awesome production binge later on. As of a week ago, he had a wRC+ of 86. Right now, it’s up to 113. Some speculated that Edwin’s lack of spring at bats would exaggerate his slow start, and while that could be the case it’s difficult to definitively agree either way. Looking back, this doesn’t really seem like an issue we’ve focused on more than usual. Edwin typically starts slow, so there’s no point in claiming his lack of Grapefruit League games was the root cause here.
The Lineup
Lastly, the leadoff spot. I’d like to say there was an open competition in Dunedin but in reality it would’ve taken a miracle for John Gibbons to open the season with anybody other than Kevin Pillar batting first. Predictably, Pillar struggled and was replaced by Michael Saunders who has done well in the role. Moving Pillar down in the order seems to have awakened his bat as well and Gibbons has begun sliding him back into the leadoff spot.
It’s an uninspiring if unsurprising move for the team’s lineup. I don’t think there’s any real outcry about this call; it’s more a sense of sad resignation. Pillar probably shouldn’t be hitting leadoff for this team but until Devon Travis returns, it’s unlikely that Gibbons will move away from trying to jam Pillar atop the order.
The Wrap Up
So yeah. It’s been awhile, or at least it feels like it. A lot of the springtime hand wringing has faded and for the most part, we’re not really panicking about these things anymore.
Point being, it’s still early. ‘It’s still early’ is frustrating to say when your expectations are sky high, but that makes it no less true. It’s fair to be concerned with some of the developments that have unfolded so far, especially the process behind them, but it’s also important to remember that the sky isn’t necessarily falling and by this time next month we’ll probably be on to a whole new batch of things to ponder. So relax, breathe deeply and try to keep the long view in mind.
Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports