USATSI_9137621_168381442_lowres

The Aggregate Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

One of the things the ardent fans of any team seem to look for, and find in abundance, is the off-season Top Prospect rankings. Between the end of the regular season one can easily find maybe 20 or more such lists. That said, not all lists are created equal. Some are the result of first hand professional scouting, others heavily factor what the team itself thinks of their own players, and still others mingle the two along with collecting views from other knowledgeable observers around the leagues. Also, some are particularly geared towards fantasy ball which can skew the rankings.

More common than those, however, are lists such as those I used to construct at The Southpaw. These rely to a great deal on having cooked up a stew of various news reports and discussions over the course of the season, spiced with a few tablespoons of one’s own particular biases and, for those fortunate enough to have the chance, seeing some games for themselves.

At least one, in the case of our Blue Jays, is based strictly on an intriguing mathematical formula devised by its author. I speak of our own Kyle Matte and the rankings he posted at Capital Jays the last two falls. These are highly recommended.

What is not so common is a look at how these lists relate to and compare to each other. As Ewan Ross did in previous years for Blue Jays Plus, I want to take a look at what the list looks like if one aggregates the prospect rankings of well respected professional publications. I have then added a few words of my own commentary.

What follows is the aggregate rankings of six major publications with widely respected opinions: Baseball America($), ESPN (Keith Law)($), John Sickels at Minor League Ball, MLB.com, Fangraphs, and our own mother ship, Baseball Prospectus. Each of these (with one exception) are published lists that are at least 15 players deep, and I think you get a somewhat better view of the consensus opinions if I tally the points on that basis. That leads to one small glitch in the rankings, which I’ll explain when the time comes. As you would expect, the ranking is constructed by awarding 15 points for a first place vote, 14 for second, and so forth. The vote total appears in parenthesis next to their name. (The ETA is not an estimate of “first appearance” but rather “here to stay”).

Without further ado, we get to the list:

1. Anthony Alford (90) – CF; ETA – Second half of 2018

The 21 year old Alford was the unanimous number one choice on all of the dozen lists I saw in preparation for this article. I have had both eyes fixed on Alford since he finished school, not entirely because he’s from my home state (after all, I’m not remotely so invested in DJ Davis) but mostly because he always carried that glow of “if only…” in the comments we heard from scouts. Two years ago at The Southpaw I ranked him #10 when he was barely on anyone else’s radar, and said in that column:

“Most observers conclude he can be a pretty good football player – though not at quarterback – or an outstanding baseball prospect and he’d be wise to play to his talents. If he does, this ranking is justified, if not too low.”

What we’ve seen in the last year is the fruition of the “if only” daydreams. He has displayed a remarkable eye at the plate and near superlative baseball instincts in the field and on the basepath. He also had a combined .398 OBP over two levels, stole 27 bases (79% success rate) and the only offensive weakness was over-the-fence power, and scouts think that will come with age and more reps. All this from a guy with a total of 509 career at bats as a professional. Expect the management to show a real interest in bringing him along slowly while he displays a level of ability that he pushes them to bend to his pressure. Presently, he’s has just returned from a jammed knee suffered in a play at the plate during the first game of the 2016 season.

2. Conner Greene (82) – SP; ETA – sometime in 2018

Five of the six professional lists had the tall righthander, Green, in the number two spot. A 21 year old who was the 7th round selection in 2013, he was not lightly regarded but, at the same time, not generally listed as one to watch either. But he came into 2015 with 20 extra pounds of muscle and an extra 4-5 MPH on his fastball and everything worked even better. He has three quality pitches (Fastball, curve, change) with the curveball also a pitch that he now throws harder than he did in the earlier part of his professional career. Dunedin pitching coach Vince Horseman helped him add 7 MPH to the pitch, improving its deception out of his hand, in the week before his promotion to AA last year. However, some observers suggest he still lacks consistency with the pitch. When promoted to AA his BB/K ratio regressed, and in the early going of 2016 that problem continues. In five starts for Dunedin so far, half of his 12 K came in one appearance.

3. Sean Reid-Foley (69) – SP; ETA – Opening Day roster – 2019

Reid-Foley is the prototypical “horse” pitcher, at 6’3” and 220 lbs, but there was a somewhat wider range of opinion on the 20 year old, falling anywhere from number three to number six on the lists considered. SRF was a well regarded pick in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft and after less than 23 rookie league innings, he earned a surprising full season assignment in his first full year of pro ball. The book developed on Reid-Foley was that he was going to walk more than his manager liked but was also going to rack up strikeouts and keep the hits in check. He was, however, showing real progress. Over his first four starts in the cold Midwest League, his BB/9 was 11.7, but over the rest of his stay in Lansing (he was promoted to Dunedin after his June 30 start) he cut that figure to 5.06 BB/9. This was still much too high of course, and it regressed to 6.6 over his ten starts in the Florida State League. It is perhaps significant, though, that he’s walked only two over eight IP in his last two starts this season. Blue Jays management opted to drop him back to Lansing to start 2016 but if he maintains this progress, he stands to be one of the first players promoted on merit this year. If he brings the walk rate to an acceptable level he can be really good.

4. Jon Harris (66) – SP; ETA – mid-2019

When he was drafted, some observers, including ESPN’s Keith Law, marked Harris as potentially one of the fastest risers through the system of any player in the draft. However, a stumble in his debut in Vancouver, which most attribute to the effects of fatigue, and the switch to a developmental philosophy considered more conservative have both dampened that expectation. Still, that high regard on draft day carries him to near the top of most rankings, falling anywhere from three to seven on the lists considered. His first start in Lansing was a disaster, but he has been outstanding in two outings since (8 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K). The 22 year old Harris stands 6’4” but is listed at 175 lbs., so there’s probably room for him to add 20-30 solid pounds, as Greene (and Aaron Sanchez) did to take himself up to another level of ability.

5. Richard Urena (65) – SS; ETA – 2019

One common theme on this list is the number of players about whom the level of excitement has increased over the last year. While Harris and SRF came into the system highly regarded, Urena is the third player in the top five to have seen not just his stock rise but the intensity of the “buzz” around him take off. Of the lot, he’s the one with the broadest range of potential outcomes, ranging from an above average SS with a good power stroke (for a middle infielder), to a complete bust who won’t adjust to better pitching in the upper minors. A natural left-handed hitter that the Jays converted to switching a couple of years ago, he hasn’t been as smooth from the right side and maybe that’s a project that won’t last. Right now his biggest offensive challenge is Kevin Pillar Syndrome. Not many hitters can survive and thrive with more home runs than bases on balls, unless they have 50 homer power. Urena does not. He is probably going to need a better approach, but he’s just now 20 years old and will no doubt move slowly. I expect him to spend the entire season at Dunedin and move one level at a time.

6. Vladmir Guerrero, Jr. (58) – 3B; ETA late 2020

Apparently all of us are suckers for bloodlines and great scouting reports, seasoned with a healthy dose of wishcasting. Guerrero Jr. hasn’t played a single professional game, but he appears on almost every list. Five of the six considered putting the 17 year old in the top five, while the other left him off entirely and not just because their were no professional at bats. I tend to think that while I, and other fans, can get swept up in the hype, those evaluators singing his praises are likely not so easily blinded. The youngster is not the same player as his father; the arm certainly isn’t there (and few believe the 3B experiment will last) and he’s more thick bodied than his dad. This has led pretty much every scout to say he’s a 1B/DH over the long run. That he features big-time power is well reported, though the skeptic among our sample group doesn’t see easy power and his comments imply that the hit mechanics could use some smoothing out. The excitement is, nevertheless, likely warranted. We’re free for now to wishcast that he’s more in the mold of David Ortiz than Chris Carter. One thing to look for: Guerrero would do very well to make the same commitment, and in the same areas, as the next guy on the list.

7. Rowdy Tellez (52) – 1B; ETA – Opening Day 2018

Another player I’ve had a soft spot for from the jump (I’m a sucker for a great name, what can I say?), Tellez has taken a practically perfect path from very raw potential to being a man with a genuine plan to maximize his odds of success.  The most obvious testimony to this is the remarkable progress in his physical conditioning and his full commitment to improving his 1B defense, both of which have produced impressive results. He’s still usually called below average with the glove, but few still call him a lock to land at DH. While Tellez was always graded highly on raw power, he has also shown steady improvement in using the whole field and making productive contact. If that weren’t enough, he has also drawn 20 walks in 20 games so far this season. Still just 21, his swing is not a completely finished product, but he has fewer and fewer doubters all the time. One list had him as high as second, and none placed him lower than 8th.

8. Max Pentecost (46) – C; ETA – 2019? 2020?

It could be viewed by some as a testament to how highly regarded Pentecost was out of college that he could miss most of 2014 and all of 2015 with injury issues and still find himself this highly ranked. Or more realistically, this is probably the point on the list where you get to the guys who wouldn’t be candidates for the top ten had the eligible list not been dwindled through promotions and trades. Pentecost’s shoulder still has him out of game action but reportedly he is at least engaged in baseball activity. There’s been nothing but idle speculation to this point about a position switch, and he’d probably have to be looking at throwing like Hank Conger from now on before that would be discussed. Every other attribute still plays up back there and his make-up is said to be top grade. All he really has to do is be ready by the time Russell Martin is done (which, let’s not assume the worst okay?) and he hopefully still has time to do that.

9. Justin Maese (37) – SP; ETA – 2020

The second player on this list to come out of the 2015 draft, the 19 year old Maese stands 6’3” and was touching the mid-90’s during his senior year of high school. There should also be room for more muscle on his frame, as he checks in at 190 lbs., and that could add a few ticks to the fastball. But he’s not only about velocity, having good action on the fastball and projectability in his other offerings. Still, he’s one of those guys who’s ceiling depends a lot on the interaction between his abilities and the development staff employed by the Blue Jays. Some of the reports described him as having solid mid-rotation upside, but there might be a bit more than that in him.

10. Clinton Hollon (28) – SP; ETA – late 2019

Hollon has one Tommy John surgery in the rear view, which cost him all of 2014 and a big part of 2015, then made a mere 12 starts before he was suspended after a positive test for amphetamines. He has good command and is said to have three plus pitches, but some of the evaluations I read point to a violent arm action that increases the risk of future injury. This leads to speculation of a possible future as a late inning reliever, but with plus velocity now that would surely play up out of the bullpen, he could have a very nice upside in that role if the Blue Jays agree. You could also probably bump that ETA by a year or so in that case.

Others receiving significant votes:

DJ Davis – If I’d used a strict Top 10 points system, Davis would have edged Hollon, as they were very close. As you may recall, Davis was picked ahead of Marcus Stroman, and he’s only taking on the FSL at Dunedin this year. He’s still raw, but showed enough improvement last year to recover from being on the verge of a washout in terms of rankings.

Ryan Borucki - A LHP with, apparently, a lot of talent who can’t stay on the field. He really needs a solid, healthy year in order to move up the organizational depth charts. He’s not too old for Dunedin at 22, but he is on the clock a bit. A shift to relief might help on the injury front and you could dream on a solid set-up lefty if that happens.

Angel Perdomo – The 6’6” 200 lbs. lefty has been brought along very slowly since signing at the end of 2011, but a lot of observers see him as the best bet to be the  guy everyone is talking about in the Jays system by August. He’s in his first year of full season ball in Lansing and has put up a 1.59 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 22.2 innings pitched.

Roemon Fields - the lighting stride CF with the Disney-movie feel good story has already defied the odds by reaching AA. He is said to have a remarkably good eye at the plate and a tenacious approach, but he envies Ben Revere’s power. Still, if he can make as much contact as Revere he’d be a better player. More likely he’s a guy who can hit like Anthony Gose without the strikeouts, and play better defense, which is good enough to be a useful fourth OF.

So there you have it: The top 10 (+4) prospects in the Blue Jays system. Throughout the year we will be checking in on their performance, along with other notable players in the system, and we’re all going to enjoy watching them grow.

Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Related Articles

2 comments on “The Aggregate Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects”

Arjonn

One thing about prospect lists that somewhat annoys me is that they arbitrarily eliminate some players for whom the prospect label still applies, at least in my mind. For instance, where would Pompey appear on such lists if he had spent a little less time in MLB?

shoulda kept Delabar

I would have Pompey right up there at 1, in front of Alford. He could’ve been 1a/1b with Alford, but Alford looked lost/overmatched in Spring Training, so Pompey is ahead of him in my books (higher floor-equally high ceiling), as Alford has a long(er) way to go/more adjustments to make, and Pompey in my mind can already be a quality starting LF, we are just marinating him in AAA while Saunders (& Bautista) plays above his contract value this year.

Also, regarding Vlad Jr. I look at it this way– Would you trade him for Urena? No one would. SRF is more of an uncertainty than Vlad Jr. He’s going to hit– for power– at the major league level. And power is a rare & declining commodity in today’s game.

I have Vlad Jr. up at #2 or 3, behind only Pompey & Alford. I have Jon Harris right after him. And Connor Greene at 4 or 5. Don’t tell me you would trade Vlad Jr. for Connor Greene.

AA paid $3.8 M in the Latin market for him at age 16; and it looks like a brilliant signing. Don’t let the age fool you; this kid’s a stud. If we lose JB & EE, he could be a regular in 2019, or late 2018. I’m hoping he, & the development staff, put an emphasis on learning how to capably field a position. That will make a world of difference.

I’m also high on Perdomo, but not so high on Fields’ defence, or hitting (post-season pinch runner?). All in all a nice list, with high-upside in the lower minors with guys like Maese, Espada (SP), Orozco (cf), Deiferson Barreto (2b), who are all in my top 10-20.

Leave a comment

Use your Baseball Prospectus username