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	<title>Toronto &#187; Trade Deadline</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>The Murky Mosaic of the Blue Jays Post Trade Deadline</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/02/the-murky-mosaic-of-the-blue-jays-post-trade-deadline/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Aug 2017 10:03:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[July 31st is in the rearview mirror, and the Toronto Blue Jays look a little bit different than they did a few days ago. Gone are Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Nori Aoki is here, although whatever that means remains to be seen. However, the biggest story of the deadline for the Blue Jays wasn&#8217;t the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>July 31st is in the rearview mirror, and the Toronto Blue Jays look a little bit different than they did a few days ago. Gone are Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Nori Aoki is here, although whatever that means remains to be seen. However, the biggest story of the deadline for the Blue Jays wasn&#8217;t the trades that were made or the prospects they were able to coax out of them. For me, it was who remained in Toronto, namely Marco Estrada and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/source-blue-jays-finalize-plans-for-july-trades/" target="_blank">went into July</a> open and willing to trade their pending free agents, but enter August with half of them still on the team. That&#8217;s telling, and provides the Blue Jays with some questions that they must try to answer over the next two months or in the off-season.</p>
<p>The first question mark deals with Estrada and where he will be in 2018. The Blue Jays decided to keep Estrada on Monday because they weren&#8217;t offered anything of value for him leading up to the deadline. Deals presented themselves in many different iterations, but all of them provided little to no substance returning to the Blue Jays for two months of Estrada&#8217;s services. In the end, Ross Atkins and his team decided that instead of getting a low level minor league player or some international slot money, they would rather keep Estrada for the next two months. As <a href="https://twitter.com/BProToronto/status/892204781204320257" target="_blank">we reported</a> on Monday night, both sides are interested in an extension, but it remains to be seen whether talks will start now, or will wait until after the season.</p>
<p>But how much should the Blue Jays be willing to pay Estrada given how poorly he has performed in 2017? I don&#8217;t think there is any easy answer to that question. Estrada&#8217;s agent will surely point to this fantastic 2015 and 2016 seasons and make the case that this year is the outlier, but is it? Estrada&#8217;s stuff is unquestionably better in 2017, but the results aren&#8217;t showing up. His velocity is higher than it has been in years and his movement is almost the same. Yet it is August 2nd and Estrada has had two good performances in the past two months, one of those coming against the second worst offensive team in the American League. Something is wrong, and the Blue Jays have to be very sure they can fix that before committing millions of dollars to a 34-year-old.</p>
<p>Then there is Jose Bautista, a franchise icon who has started a rapid decline phase in his career, with a TAv that has sunk from .332 in 2014 to .248 this season. Other teams weren&#8217;t oblivious to that fact, and like Estrada, no good deals were offered that would have made the Blue Jays braintrust <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892149015499898880" target="_blank">go to Bautista</a> to ask him to waive his 10/5 rights that he has accrued as a long time member of the club. However, Bautista told club officials that he wants to be here, so even if a good deal <em>did</em> present itself, he may not have accepted.</p>
<p>With Bautista still in the fold, the club will also need to decide what to do with him. The decision makers on this team believe that the Blue Jays are a better team with Bautista on it than without him and they still have a &#8220;slight glimmer of hope&#8221; in his future performance according to a source with the club. That said, they still plan on declining their end of Bautista&#8217;s mutual option when the time comes in a few months and then deciding what to do with him.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s clear to me that if the team wants to contend, Bautista can&#8217;t be an everyday player anymore. His defense has been below average for years, but as he approaches the last few years of his 30&#8217;s, it is getting to the point of being unplayable. That would be fine if he could make up for it with his bat, but that is so obviously not the case anymore. His walk rate has fallen at the same time his strikeout rate has jumped. His power numbers have nosedived and the ball has left his bat almost four mph slower this season than it did in 2015. Those four points may not be scary individually, but taken together they make up the perfect recipe for a player who isn&#8217;t very good anymore.</p>
<p>But Bautista is the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays are Bautista. Until he decides to retire, he should be with this team. However, the trades yesterday indicate that the Blue Jays are going to try to contend in 2018, and if that is the case, Bautista&#8217;s only role on that team should be off of the bench.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep 68: Those Trade Winds are Blowing</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/02/artificial-turf-wars-ep-68-those-trade-winds-are-blowing/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Aug 2017 09:51:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12786</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 68 Nick Dika joins Greg and Josh to break down the last week of Jays, with a long look at the Blue Jays deadline moves and the impacts made by Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith during their time as Blue Jays. They also discuss Steve Pearce&#8217;s magical week, Justin Smoak&#8217;s continued dominance, a brief [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 68</strong></p>
<p>Nick Dika joins Greg and Josh to break down the last week of Jays, with a long look at the Blue Jays deadline moves and the impacts made by Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith during their time as Blue Jays. They also discuss Steve Pearce&#8217;s magical week, Justin Smoak&#8217;s continued dominance, a brief return to form from Marco Estrada, Josh Donaldson hitting slightly better, and Jose Bautista&#8217;s struggles. Finally, they answer listener questions and give a Do Over to some MLB Umps.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/017/show_10179087_2017_08_02_04_02_53.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/017/show_10179087_2017_08_02_04_02_53.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Trade RP Joe Smith to Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/joe-smith-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/joe-smith-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 19:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[According to Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays have traded reliever Joe Smith to Cleveland in advance of Monday&#8217;s trade deadline. Source: Joe Smith to #Indians. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2017 Smith, 33, signed a one year deal with Toronto this past off-season for $3 million and was worth every penny up until this [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays have traded reliever Joe Smith to Cleveland in advance of Monday&#8217;s trade deadline.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Joe Smith to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Indians?src=hash">#Indians</a>.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/892099934782205953">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Smith, 33, signed a one year deal with Toronto this past off-season for $3 million and was worth every penny up until this point. He has struck out a career high 35.4% of the batters he has faced this year, which is good enough for 14th in baseball among relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. To go along with that, he bounced back from an uncharacteristically high number of home runs allowed in 2016 to allow just 0.76 per nine innings this season, and has posted his lowest walk rate since 2014 at 6.9%.</p>
<p>Smith was well on the way to shattering a bunch of the counting numbers on his career resume before being shelved with shoulder soreness on June 15th. He missed 31 games with the injury, but came back in time to show that he was indeed healthy enough to help a team down the stretch.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s something of a homecoming for Smith. The sidewinding reliever played for Cleveland from 2009-2013, posting a 2.76 ERA across 271 innings and showing the dominant form that led to his three year, $18M dollar deal with the Angels from 2014-2016. He will now join an elite bullpen that includes Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Zach McAllister.</p>
<p>The Jays will be receiving two low-level minor leaguers in return, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Two lower level minor leaguers in return. <a href="https://t.co/NRLNPdUPFq">https://t.co/NRLNPdUPFq</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/892101286748983298">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>It looks like the Jays will be getting LHP Tom Pannone and SS Samad Taylor in exchange for two months of Smith.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Indians send minor leaguers LHP Tom Pannone and SS Samad Taylor to Toronto for Joe Smith.</p>
<p>&mdash; paul hoynes (@hoynsie) <a href="https://twitter.com/hoynsie/status/892104820403908610">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Taylor (19 years old) was selected in the 10th round of the 2016 draft and is currently hitting .300/.328/.467 for Mahoning Valley of the short season New York Penn League. Baseball America says that Taylor is a fast who &#8220;takes smart at-bats and makes solid line-drive contact and is beginning to show burgeoning power. Defensively he has the reflexes and quick-twitch attributes to handle both middle infield positions, but his actions and arm are better suited for second base.&#8221;</p>
<p>Pannone (23 years old) is a former 9th round pick (2013) who is currently in Double-A Akron and has pitched to a 2.95 ERA across 82 1/3 innings with 81 strikeouts and 21 walks. He gained some note after dominating high-A Lynchburg to start the year. He didn&#8217;t allow a single run in his five starts there, while striking out 39 across 27.1 innings. This even inspired a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thomas-pannone-an-indians-prospect-puts-up-zeroes/" target="_blank">Fangraphs profile back in April</a>. <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/indians-acquire-reliever-joe-smith-for-samad-taylor-thomas-pannone/#wDvIMM25B1khQ4Hk.97" target="_blank"></a>Per BA, the six-foot lefty &#8220;sits comfortably 90-91 mph and uses a mid-70s slurvy breaking balls as his main secondary. Where Pannone excels is he works quickly, fills up the zone in all quadrants, and mixes and matches to keep hitters off-balance.&#8221;</p>
<p>Neither player in on the Cleveland top 30, per MLB Pipeline, but the performance is at least showing some value. It&#8217;s also important to note that both Shapiro and Atkins know the Cleveland system very well, so of all teams with whom they could be trading, they&#8217;re likely much more confident in going deep into the Cleveland system than they would be with any other club. Finally, there&#8217;s this report from Cleveland MLB.com reporter (and former Jays reporter) Jonathan Mayo:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">While Pannone (1.96 ERA at AA/A+ in &#39;17), isn&#39;t on CLE&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline">@MLBPipeline</a> Top 30, source says some rival clubs view him as Top 10 CLE prospect.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/892107843301765122">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Finally, as Bill Shaikin of the LA Times points out, there is another interesting aspect to the deal.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Smith&#39;s trade to Indians puts him within driving distance of his mom, who has Huntington&#39;s disease. He did fundraiser in CLE last week.</p>
<p>&mdash; Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/892103129071706112">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>While likely not the main reason for the deal, it&#8217;s entirely possible that the Jays weren&#8217;t finding a great match for Smith but did him this courtesy and got the best they could simply as a nice gesture to a member of the team. <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892108137716748289" target="_blank">Joe Smith himself said</a> that if he were traded, Cleveland was the only place he wanted to go. While it&#8217;s true that most players simply chase dollars in free agency, this kind of thing still carries some weight.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Trade Liriano to Astros for Aoki &amp; Hernández</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/francisco-liriano-astros/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/francisco-liriano-astros/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 17:27:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12669</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are on the verge of trading Fransisco Liriano to the Houston Astros according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is not yet office, and the return is not yet known. It is expected that the Blue Jays will pick up Liriano&#8217;s salary in order to get a bigger return from Houston. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are on the verge of trading Fransisco Liriano to the Houston Astros according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is not yet office, and the return is not yet known. It is expected that the Blue Jays will pick up Liriano&#8217;s salary in order to get a bigger return from Houston.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> are on verge of acquiring Francisco Liriano from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bluejays?src=hash">#Bluejays</a>, but deal not yet complete. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> 1st mentioned in talks</p>
<p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/892071059700232192">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Liriano, 33, has struggled in 2017, posting a 5.88 ERA across 82 2/3 innings pitched. He has posted his lowest K% since 2011 with a mark of 19.8%, although his BB% of 11.5% is right in the area he has been recently. Those baserunners have allowed more runs to score when he gives up big hits, including the 1.20 home runs per nine innings he has suffered this season. As such, Houston plans on using Liriano as a reliever, as first mentioned by <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/892068882961371138" target="_blank">Ken Rosenthal</a>. He is still holding lefties to a .230/.254.361 line and a 26.9% strikeout rate. More importantly, he has walked just one lefthanded batter in 63 plate appearances. That will play in any major league bullpen.</p>
<p>Jays fans, of course, will remember his shut down performance in last year&#8217;s wild card game after coming over as a deadline acquisition along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez for Drew Hutchison. Without his performance down the stretch and the 1 2/3 innings in that fateful game against Baltimore, we likely never experience the Edwin walkoff or the sweep of Texas. So while his time here was short, his impact was very large indeed.</p>
<p>Robert Murray of FanRag Sports was the <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayFRS/status/892039375059595265" target="_blank">first to report</a> Houston had interest.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>Shi Davidi is now reporting that the piece is done, pending physicals.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> deal for Francisco Liriano is pending a physical. Sounds like an outfielder in coming back in return</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892073473559990272">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>We&#8217;ll continue to update this post as soon as we know more about this trade.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #2:</strong></p>
<p>Astros reporter Brian McTaggart is reporting that the deal is indeed done.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can confirm Astros have acquired LHP Liriano from Jays.</p>
<p>&mdash; Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/892077284873654272">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #3: </strong></p>
<p>McTaggart is now reporting that the Jays are getting Nori Aoki and a minor leaguer in return. The 35-year old Aoki is currently hitting .272/.323/.371 (though his career OBP is .350) and has been an average to below average outfielder in his career. Whil he <em>is</em> controllable through 2018 through arbitration, Aoki is very much a non-tender candidate with a 2017 salary of $5.5M. The real return is likely the minor leaguer, with Aoki more that Jays taking on more salary to increase the value of the prospect.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Astros are sending OF Nori Aoki and a Minor League player to the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>&mdash; Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/892079904690507776">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #4:</strong></p>
<p>Well, this is why you take back Nori Aoki and his $5.5 million salary. According to Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are getting Teoscar Hernández from the Astros, their ninth best prospect according to MLB Pipeline.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Minor-leaguer <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> getting from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> is OF Teoscar Hernandez, per source</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892087202448068608">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Hernández is a speedy 24-year-old with average tools across the board otherwise. He was<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30867" target="_blank"> #9 on BP&#8217;s preseason top 10</a> Astros list, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-houston-astros-midseason-top-10-prospects/#s5AtsFG3Fw8WgVWj.97" target="_blank">#8 on BA&#8217;s midseason list</a>, and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=hou" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline grades him out</a> as  &#8220;Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50.&#8221; <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/astros-add-francisco-liriano-as-reliever/#uz2qe5Gx9eK6w4LH.97" target="_blank">Baseball America also says</a> that &#8220;Hernandez is a versatile outfielder who has the speed and range to play above-average defense center field and the arm to be a plus defender in right&#8221; who &#8220;with a vastly improved two-strike approach and pitch recognition in 2016, Hernandez remade himself as a prospect, showing a significantly improved hit tool while losing little of his power.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a fine combination for a return on a Francisco Liriano deal. This season, Hernández is playing in AAA with the Fresno Grizzlies, and has hit .279/.369/.485 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The downside to Hernández is that he does strike out a bit, at 20.7% in 2017, but in today&#8217;s game, that is becoming more normalized. He can also play all three outfield spots (though is only passable in CF), making him a valuable piece to a big league roster. He appeared in 41 games for the Astros in 2016, batting .230/.304/.420 in 112 plate appearances.</p>
<p>This trade is a fantastic one for the Blue Jays in the end. Similarly to how they acquired Liriano last season, they have flexed their financial might and taken on (or retained) the salaries on a couple of players to acquire better assets in return. Hernández is a legitimate prospect and the Blue Jays did well in acquiring a player who can contribute in the future for a guy with only two months left on his contract.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Source: Blue Jays Finalize Plans for July Trades</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/source-blue-jays-finalize-plans-for-july-trades/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jul 2017 20:21:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12241</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a conference call with the baseball operations staff on Friday afternoon, the Blue Jays front office has decided what their plans will be for trades in July, according to a source familiar with the situation. Specifically, the team is open to trading any of their four players with fewer than a year of control [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a conference call with the baseball operations staff on Friday afternoon, the Blue Jays front office has decided what their plans will be for trades in July, according to a source familiar with the situation. Specifically, the team is open to trading any of their four players with fewer than a year of control left, namely Marco Estrada, Joe Smith, Francisco Liriano, and Jose Bautista. Additionally, the club will also listen to trade offers on a couple of players who will hit the free agent market after 2018, like Steve Pearce or J.A. Happ, but are in no hurry to move them. This lines up with what Mark Shapiro has been saying all along in the media, specifically to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-seek-immediate-long-term-help-deadline/" target="_blank">Shi Davidi of Sportsnet</a> and <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/shapiro-jays-could-be-buyers-and-sellers-at-the-trade-deadline-1.798252" target="_blank">Scott MacArthur of TSN Radio</a>.</p>
<p>However, the source also mentioned that the team will not be looking to dump salaries and start a rebuild. The trades must make sense from a baseball standpoint for the club at this point, and the team is even open to taking salary on in trades like they did last year when acquiring Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The front office is intent on improving the team for the rest of this season, 2018, and beyond.</p>
<p>Despite rumours from various members of the national media in the United States, like <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/240544220/blue-jays-may-be-ready-to-sell-at-deadline/" target="_blank">Jon Morosi</a>, <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/16967/olney-if-blue-jays-sell-marcus-stroman-the-logical-choice-to-market" target="_blank">Buster Olney</a>, and <a href="https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/blue-jays/heyman-will-blue-jays-trade-big-stars/" target="_blank">Jon Heyman</a>, the Blue Jays have no plans to trade big pieces like Josh Donaldson, Roberto Osuna, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, or Aaron Sanchez according to the same club source. The team would need to be &#8220;completely overwhelmed by players with multiple years of control&#8221; in order to move any of those players.</p>
<p>The team has had scouts on assignments across baseball in the past few weeks, and that will continue until the July 31st deadline and even after it. Because of this, anytime you read &#8220;Blue Jays are scouting Player X,&#8221; take it with a grain of salt as the Blue Jays are scouting virtually everybody in the league to do their due diligence.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>How The Blue Jays Got Caught in the Unproductive Middle</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/06/on-the-ambiguity-of-july/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2017 10:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12054</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As baseball fans are wont to do when the calendar flips to July, I found myself thinking about trades this past week. The annual frenzy of rumours and whispers that lead up to the July 31st MLB Trade Deadline have been starting over the past few days. The New York Mets have apparently decided the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As baseball fans are wont to do when the calendar flips to July, I found myself thinking about trades this past week. The annual frenzy of rumours and whispers that lead up to the July 31st MLB Trade Deadline have been starting over the past few days. The New York Mets have apparently decided the hole they have dug themselves is too deep to dig out of, and will trade their veterans when the time is right. Other teams like the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks have maintained their successful play until now and despite not starting the year as playoff favourites, have been so successful up until this point that they find themselves in the position of being buyers. Then, there are the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Three months and 80 or so games into the season, the Blue Jays have disappointed. Some combination of injuries, bad luck, age, and terrible play have coincided to leave the Blue Jays 4.5 games out of a playoff spot and fans wondering what the coming months will bring to this franchise. Looking forward to the next three months provides no certainties, only a hazy picture of possibilities.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>Literary ambiguity is a tool often used by authors to offer multiple pathways to their audience in a single story. By making a pivotal moment in a text deliberately ambiguous, an author gives a certain power to the reader, allowing them to decide what is meant by specific words that can have an immense impact on the meaning of a text. The advantage of this is obvious as it grants a single text the rich literary experience of multiple layers of meaning. Two readers, sitting next to each other or miles apart, may be reading the same text yet take away from it completely different messages.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>As I pondered the coming weeks, I almost instantly thought back to the moment two years ago on July 28th, when the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki and signalled to the baseball world that they were to be taken seriously. At 12:28 AM eastern time, <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/625885610390257664" target="_blank">Ken Rosenthal tweeted</a> the simple, yet chaotic message of “BREAKING: Tulo traded to #BlueJays.” Everybody was caught off guard. Even the most die hard fans and most connected insiders had no idea a trade of this magnitude was coming down the pike. Despite all the rumours and guesswork, the trade and the newfound direction of the Blue Jays, came as a surprise.</p>
<p>Which brings us to this year and the Blue Jays’ sheepish attitude as they approach the games that matter. By all reports, the Blue Jays seem adamant that they will be buying players in some form this month, not selling them. However, as they skid into July with only one good month of play out of three, the question remains if that truly is the wisest baseball decision. Is this team really closer to the product that was on the field in May and not the one that reared its ugly head in April and June? Is it possible that a team that has received staggered performances from its stars for half the season will all of a sudden click on all cylinders and make a run like the 2015 team went on after the trade deadline?</p>
<p>The logical and reasonable answer to those questions is one that nobody wants to hear. The math says the Blue Jays aren’t likely to make the playoffs. The math says they aren&#8217;t likely to break out of whatever funk they have been in this entire time and start to play like the team everybody thought they were in March. This team has flaws, and it seems like it may be too late to fix them. However, the thing about percentages is that they are misleading. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">A four percent chance of making the playoffs</a> means that out of every 100 possible scenarios, the Blue Jays make the playoffs in four of them! That’s not zero! So their odds may not be good, but they exist.</p>
<p>We’re going into a time when the Blue Jays front office needs to decide which way to steer this team. Buying players through prospect capital can help this team in the last stage of this season, but if that fails, the dent it will cause to future teams may be harmful in the long run. Selling players isn’t all that of an attractive option either because realistically the players the Blue Jays would be selling, with the exception of Roberto Osuna and Josh Donaldson, wouldn&#8217;t fetch such a high price to make a substantial difference. Jose Bautista is only bringing back quality if he is vintage Jose Bautista, and he is far from it right now. The same goes for Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano. What&#8217;s the point of selling if it doesn&#8217;t significantly increase the odds the team plays better in the coming years? Without a big return on the players being given up, there&#8217;s a strong argument to be made that this team should just play out the course of the year and let entropy decide whether they&#8217;ll be in the playoffs or not.</p>
<p>So we’re somewhere in the middle. Buying or selling, it doesn&#8217;t matter, because they both aren&#8217;t perfect plans. Intrinsic to the fan experience is that we are left in the dark until something happens. Like in 2015, we have no idea which direction this team will be moving in. The future of the Blue Jays right now is ambiguous. Ross Atkins is the author, and we are the reader, waiting for these multiple options to recede to just one, and for the future of the Blue Jays season to become clear.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Ticket Sale Data can Tell us About Future Blue Jays Attendance</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/20/what-ticket-sale-data-tells-us-about-future-blue-jays-attendance/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jun 2017 14:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Shell]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an article last month arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument: “Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jonah-keri-case-trading-josh-donaldson-season/"> article last month</a> arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument:</p>
<p>“Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be tough to watch…Keeping Donaldson around for as long as possible could help prolong the franchise’s off-field momentum, the kind that’s supercharged attendance and TV ratings, and more intangibly made the Jays a hot topic of conversation on those glorious Toronto summer patio nights — like they were 25 years ago.”</p>
<p>Keri here is making a guess about something we don’t really know much about &#8211; namely, fan reactions to head office moves, and the implications for franchise revenue. It’s not that the financial side doesn’t matter – in fact, especially for a corporate club like the Jays, it’s crucial! It’s just that we tend to attach too much credibility to our gut instincts when we don&#8217;t have facts to lean on. I doubt Keri, or anyone else, wants to be like that scout in Moneyball talking about “the good face.” But when it comes to the economics of baseball, that’s who we often are.</p>
<p>The revolution in baseball analysis hasn&#8217;t extended to the financial side, despite its large influence on team decision-making. Even high-effort attempts to understand teams&#8217; current state and future prospects limit their financial analysis to current payroll levels, such as this otherwise <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/ground-rule-doppelgangers-2017-edition/">very cool concept </a>at the Hardball Times.<a id="ref1" href="#1"><sup>[1]</sup></a> But to a large extent, current payroll is a backward-looking metric, as it reflects decisions made in the past in potentially different circumstances. For example, the Detroit Tigers are an aging team with a high payroll and a collapsing attendance base. Current payroll may be an indicator of what they’re willing to spend in a good situation, but may not be a good indicator of their willingness or ability to add quality players over the next few years.</p>
<p>Since we currently often use hunch-based economics to support our arguments about what each team should do at the trade deadline, it might be useful to have some analytical tools or theories based on research. For example, what’s the actual “signalling” impact of trading someone like Josh Donaldson or Roberto Osuna? Does attendance reflect who the players are, and how long they’ve been with the team, or is it just about winning? How much does team revenue influence the player budget, and how does that differ based on the type of team owner?</p>
<p>While these questions would require some pretty painful historical research, we probably have enough available data today to create some useful metrics. The rise of Stubhub has produced accessible data about demand for tickets that scalpers never published. This data can be like the “peripherals” of revenue, using current market sentiment to predict a team’s season attendance, which is a good proxy for their revenue.<a id="ref2" href="#2"><sup>[2]</sup></a> This is exactly the same way xFIP tries to predict long-term ERA. Call it xREV, or xATT.</p>
<p>I think it would be pretty cool if Jonah Keri could say that the xREV for the Blue Jays is looking down about 10% for 2017, so we can’t expect the player budget to increase and need to think about things like trading Roberto Osuna. When <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/06/16/dont-trade-roberto-osuna-commit-to-making-him-a-starter/" target="_blank">Andrew Stoeten says</a> “unless something with their budget changes dramatically, the Blue Jays&#8230;aren’t quite going to be in that 2015-like push-in-all-your-chips, our-window-is-right-now kind of place,” this reasonable argument would be helped if xATT showed little reason to expect a dramatic change in their budget.</p>
<p>While we don&#8217;t have this metric, I&#8217;m going to make a lazy attempt at something similar.</p>
<p>First, let’s look at actual attendance so far this year compared to the last few years:</p>
<table width="385">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" width="385">Blue Jays Attendance through 36 Home Games</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Record</td>
<td>Total Attendance</td>
<td>Average Per Game</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>39-27</td>
<td> 914,601</td>
<td> 25,405</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>37-33</td>
<td> 949,648</td>
<td> 26,379</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>40-34</td>
<td> 1,369,090</td>
<td> 38,030</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>33-35</td>
<td> 1,400,638</td>
<td> 38,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Well, that doesn’t look too bad. On the face of it, the Blue Jays seem to be holding on to the gains they made last year, where they finished the year with 3.3 million fans. As Jonah points out, first in the AL!</p>
<p>But the underlying demand that would go into a predictive “xREV” paint a different picture. To look at it, I used seatgeek.com and my friend Dan. Seatgeek.com has a cool tool that shows you average ticket price on the secondary market for a team over time. My friend Dan lives in Calgary and actively sells every one of his season tickets on stubhub, which he has so he can get playoff tickets.<a id="ref3" href="#3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> He’s better than your friend Dan because he also keeps really good track of his sales stats.</p>
<p>Here’s the Jays picture on seatgeek.com since Feb, 2014:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11956" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png" alt="Since beginning of 2014" width="500" height="405" /></a></p>
<p>Average ticket prices last year dipped as low as $57, but this year they’ve barely ever been at that level, and are currently at $42, similar to prices in 2014 and early 2015 when attendance and interest was much lower. They did sell a lot more advance seats this year, so some of this would be expected as there’s a lot more supply in the market, but this should be a good indicator of a reduced interest in walk-up tickets.</p>
<p>Obviously, the team is doing worse, so that&#8217;s to be expected, but there have also been times this year where their record was very similar to last year, and it&#8217;s the same story.</p>
<p>For example, this year the Yankees came to town for a weekend series June 2-4, with the Blue Jays just under .500. The series drew 138K fans. Last year, the Red Sox came for a weekend series May 27-29 with the team just under .500, and drew 142K fans. That was almost exactly the same situation. According to Seatgeek, last year the average ticket price for the Red Sox series ranged from $45 to $58, while this year it was $39-41 for the Yanks. Dan’s results were even worse, averaging $61 a ticket this year versus $91 last year. <em>Even when the team performance was equally bad</em>, demand this year is a lot less than last year.</p>
<p>In fact, so far this year Dan’s getting crushed.<a id="ref4" href="#4"><sup>[4]</sup></a> Here’s his stats through 36 games:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" width="349">Dan&#8217;s Ticket Sales (through 36 games)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38"></td>
<td width="78">Total Sales</td>
<td width="61">Average</td>
<td width="116">Sales above $90</td>
<td width="56">No Sale</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2016</td>
<td width="78">$2,242</td>
<td width="61">$62.29</td>
<td width="116">12</td>
<td width="56">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2017</td>
<td width="78">$1,228</td>
<td width="61">$34.11</td>
<td width="116">1</td>
<td width="56">10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>And if you think he’s being lazy, he’s actually working harder this year. “Last year I held back the tickets because we knew there’d be real demand for the big games. This year, I have to post them way in advance, actively manage the change in prices and keep adjusting. I’m not going to do it again next year.” So, the Jays are already down two seats in 2018!</p>
<p>The change showed up very early, as last year’s home opener average on seatgeek was $61, while this year’s, after the miserable 1-5 start, was $39. Dan’s story was worse again, selling last year’s tickets for $260, and this year’s for $67.<a id="ref5" href="#5"><sup>[5]</sup></a></p>
<p>If demand continues to be this soft for new ticket sales, you’d expect to see a much lower average attendance for the rest of this year than the 47K per game they had from this point forward in 2016. Even keeping our league-leading current average attendance of 39K per game leads to a loss of 350K fans for the year. And there’s some evidence (the Yankees/Red Sox series comparison) that even if the team rallies back to take a wild card, interest would be lower than it was for the same result last year. If I had to take a stab at xATT, it would be 2.9-3.1M.</p>
<p>In Keri’s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/osunas-dominance-present-blue-jays-tempting-options/" target="_blank">perfectly reasonable article about trading Roberto Osuna</a>,<a id="ref6" href="#6"><sup>[6]</sup></a> he says this about the Jays fanbase: “Balanced against all that is a fanbase that’s been energized by the team’s recent success, with two straight ALCS appearances producing the best home attendance for any American League team this year, as well as surging TV ratings and a more intangible buzz around the ballclub, the kind that hadn’t been felt since the back-to-black glory years of 1992 and 1993.”</p>
<p>We’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but it’s possible that momentum has already swung the other way, and that underlying attendance “peripherals” may point to a lot less money to work with going forward. Before we trade Donaldson and “tear it all down,” this is pretty lazy analysis, and could easily be useless. But there’s a big gap in the baseball analytics world, and developing some useful tools on these topics would make predicting a team’s moves a lot more interesting and better informed.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>FOOTNOTES</strong></span></p>
<p><a id="1" href="#ref1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>The analysis attempts to find a historical match for each current team based on a number of dimensions.  The Jays are, as it happens, compared to the 1990 San Francisco Giants, who won 85, 75 and 72 games from 1990-1992.  Let’s hope not!</p>
<p><a id="2" href="#ref2"><sup>[2]</sup></a>Attendance is a team’s primary revenue source, and you’d expect it to drive merchandise sales, which are two of the three main drivers of revenue. TV is the other, and for most other teams, this is a long-term contract unaffected by attendance. Because the Blue Jays don’t have a TV contract for a specific set amount of money, TV revenue for the Blue Jays/Rogers is directly tied to advertising revenue, which is directly tied to ratings and therefore fan interest. So, attendance is a better proxy for revenue for the Jays than other teams.</p>
<p><a id="3" href="#ref3"><sup>[3]</sup></a>This worked out really well for Dan last year, as he made enough of a profit on the regular season seats to more or less pay for his trip to Toronto to see the playoffs. This year, not so much.</p>
<p><a id="4" href="#ref4"><sup>[4]</sup></a>Before you scream “small sample size,” Stubhub works largely like a stock market for tickets, where there are many buyer and sellers, so an active seller’s result will be indicative of the actual market rate.</p>
<p><a id="5" href="#ref5"><sup>[5]</sup></a>To be fair, last year was a Friday against the Red Sox and this year was a Tuesday against the Brewers, but these are some pretty dramatic differences.</p>
<p><a id="6" href="#ref6"><sup>[6]</sup></a>Not to get too deeply into this, but Osuna’s going to cost somewhere between $25-30M in his last three years of arbitration eligibility if he stays healthy. Kenley Jansen signed for $16M/year, or about $50M over the same time period. The recent hauls for players like Ken Giles and Tyler Thornburg were worth more than the difference, and Osuna’s better than those guys (not to mention the Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel deals). I’m not saying “do it,” but it’s certainly not crazy. And my love for Osuna runs deep…</p>
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